Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 41 SW 2 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 39 SW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 SSW 4 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 S 3 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 38 S 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 38 SSE 2 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 SSE 3 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 37 SSE 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 38 SE 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 40 S 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 43 SW 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 45 W 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 45 W 6 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 46 W 6 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 44 W 7 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 43 W 7 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 42 W 7 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 41 W 8 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 39 SW 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 S 3 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 35 SSE 0 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 SSE 2 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 28 SE 4 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 24 SE 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 30 SE 4 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 36 SE 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 41 SE 2 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 40 E 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 39 ENE 4 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 NNE 4 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 NE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 37 ENE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 40 ENE 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 45 ENE 10 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 48 ENE 11 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 49 ENE 11 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 51 E 11 14 636 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 67 50 E 11 14 441 440 140 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 50 SSE 8 10 441 440 140 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 50 SW 4 6 441 440 140 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 50 WNW 2 2 441 440 140 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 SSW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 46 SE 4 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 43 NE 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 NE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 39 NE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 ENE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 37 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 37 ENE 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 E 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 E 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 ENE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 ENE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 ENE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 36 ENE 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 41 ENE 4 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 46 ENE 4 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 51 ENE 3 4 636 440 140 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 66 51 SE 5 6 636 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 66 51 SSW 8 9 636 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 66 49 W 10 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 46 WNW 10 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 44 WNW 10 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 43 NW 10 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 41 NW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 NW 7 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 NW 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 NW 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 NW 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 NW 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst