Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 54 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 55 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 56 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 55 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 54 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 54 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 52 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 49 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 47 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 47 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 47 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 47 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 52 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 54 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 56 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 57 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 72 56 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 55 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 55 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 72 53 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 72 52 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 52 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 52 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 52 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 52 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 51 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 50 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 52 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 55 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 60 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 76 62 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 76 62 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 76 62 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 77 62 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 78 61 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 77 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 78 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 76 56 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 55 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 54 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 54 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 54 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 54 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 53 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 52 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 50 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 48 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 50 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 52 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 55 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 57 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 60 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 80 66 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 81 68 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 81 69 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 82 69 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 82 68 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 82 66 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 81 63 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 80 61 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 57 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 55 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 54 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 53 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 52 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 52 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 52 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 51 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 50 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 50 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 51 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 52 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 55 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 59 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 82 64 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 84 70 SW 8 1444 440 140 White 0
12 Noon Wed 84 72 SW 8 1884 440 140 White 2
1 PM Wed 83 71 SW 8 1665 440 140 White 1
2 PM Wed 81 69 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 81 67 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 80 64 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 80 62 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 80 61 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 79 59 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 78 58 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 57 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 56 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 56 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 55 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 54 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 52 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 51 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 50 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 49 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 50 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 51 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 54 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 58 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 63 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 82 68 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 82 70 SW 10 1444 440 140 White 0
1 PM Thu 80 68 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 79 66 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 80 66 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 80 64 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 80 62 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 79 60 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 77 57 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 55 S 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 54 S 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 53 S 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 52 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 51 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 51 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 50 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 50 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 49 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst