Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 51 31 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 47 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 42 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 42 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 40 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 30 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 30 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 43 N 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 37 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 36 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 48 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 48 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 47 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 W 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 40 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 50 W 1 461 440 140 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 73 55 W 1 514 484 184 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 73 55 W 2 514 484 184 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 73 55 W 3 514 484 184 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 72 54 NW 5 504 475 175 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 72 53 NW 5 494 461 161 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 72 52 NW 5 484 443 143 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 72 52 NW 3 484 443 143 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 72 52 W 3 484 443 143 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 71 51 W 2 475 440 140 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 69 49 SW 2 443 440 140 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 46 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 42 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 38 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 40 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 40 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 42 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 46 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 52 E 2 484 443 143 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 78 59 E 2 556 524 224 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 82 64 W 1 710 604 304 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 82 65 W 1 790 628 328 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 80 63 W 1 653 580 280 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 77 59 NW 6 556 524 224 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 76 58 NW 6 543 514 214 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 76 57 NW 6 533 504 204 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 75 55 NW 6 514 484 184 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 74 54 NW 6 504 475 175 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 71 51 NW 6 475 440 140 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 68 48 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 46 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 42 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 42 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 42 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 44 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 45 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 47 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 49 SE 2 443 440 140 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 53 SE 2 494 461 161 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 77 58 SE 2 543 514 214 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 80 62 W 3 629 555 255 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 80 63 W 3 653 580 280 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 79 62 W 3 629 555 255 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 78 60 NW 7 580 533 233 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 77 59 NW 7 556 524 224 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 76 57 NW 7 533 504 204 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 75 55 NW 3 514 484 184 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 72 52 NW 3 484 443 143 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 N 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 41 N 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 42 N 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 43 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 42 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 40 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 39 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 40 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 47 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 53 SW 3 494 461 161 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 74 57 SW 3 533 504 204 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 76 59 SW 3 556 524 224 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 77 59 SW 5 556 524 224 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 77 58 SW 5 543 514 214 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 76 56 SW 5 524 494 194 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 73 53 SW 3 494 461 161 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 69 49 SW 3 443 440 140 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 45 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 42 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 42 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 42 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 42 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst