Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 53 33 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 43 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 43 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 41 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 40 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 33 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 31 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 31 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 33 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 36 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 38 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 39 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 40 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 37 E 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 E 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 E 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 NE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 NE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 37 NE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 37 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 32 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 31 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 43 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 49 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 50 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 46 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 45 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 42 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 38 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 31 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 31 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 33 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 32 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 32 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 31 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 42 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 49 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 51 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 51 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 47 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 44 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 35 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 31 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 31 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 35 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 43 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 50 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 54 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 53 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 53 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 70 51 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 47 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 44 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 49 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 51 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 50 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 69 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 44 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 35 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst