Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 34 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 45 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 47 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 45 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 43 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 43 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 44 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 45 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 45 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 46 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 44 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 43 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 42 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 38 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 40 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 44 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 45 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 44 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 45 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 43 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 41 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 42 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 42 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 50 W 7 499 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 64 49 NW 14 483 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 63 47 NW 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 44 NW 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 44 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 39 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 38 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 41 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 45 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 52 W 6 531 483 183 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 68 54 W 6 597 515 215 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 69 55 W 6 670 530 230 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 68 53 NW 12 547 499 199 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 67 51 NW 12 515 467 167 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 66 48 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 48 NW 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 NW 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 NW 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 41 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 40 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 NE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 38 NE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 44 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 48 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 56 W 9 777 546 246 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 73 59 W 9 1098 776 476 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 74 60 W 9 1205 882 582 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 73 59 W 10 1098 776 476 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 71 55 W 10 670 530 230 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 71 54 W 10 597 515 215 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 71 52 W 13 531 483 183 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 66 46 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 44 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 45 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 44 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 43 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 41 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 40 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 39 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 38 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst