Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 38 SE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 36 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 37 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 38 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 39 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 38 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 38 SW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 37 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 W 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 37 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 39 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 43 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 44 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 44 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 43 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 40 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 40 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 39 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 39 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 41 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 46 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 48 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 44 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 44 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 37 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 41 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 49 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 51 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 51 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 50 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 48 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 47 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 45 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 43 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 42 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 41 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 40 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 38 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 39 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 40 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 41 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 42 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 44 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 52 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 50 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 49 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 45 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 40 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 39 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 38 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 38 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 38 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 38 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 38 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 38 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 42 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 50 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 42 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 39 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 37 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 37 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 37 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst