Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 46 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 54 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 56 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 70 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 51 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 51 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 50 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 50 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 49 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 48 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 47 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 47 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 46 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 45 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 43 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 44 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 45 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 48 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 53 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 54 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 56 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 54 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 68 52 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 50 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 49 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 47 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 44 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 43 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 43 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 44 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 45 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 46 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 47 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 48 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 53 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 54 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 54 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 53 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 70 53 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 47 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 48 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 48 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 45 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 45 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 47 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 48 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 55 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 57 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 58 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 72 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 72 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 71 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 53 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 71 51 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 50 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 49 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 49 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 43 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 44 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 49 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 56 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 58 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 58 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 73 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 72 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 53 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 71 51 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 51 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 50 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 44 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 44 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 44 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 48 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 53 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 57 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 74 58 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 57 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 72 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 54 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 53 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 72 52 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 51 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 50 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 48 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 48 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 47 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst