Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 56 36 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 36 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 36 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 36 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 57 37 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 40 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 41 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 41 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 59 39 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 59 39 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 58 38 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 37 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 57 37 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 56 36 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 56 36 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 55 35 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 36 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 35 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 58 38 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 40 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 43 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 42 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 42 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 41 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 38 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 37 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 37 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 35 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 34 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 54 34 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 54 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 53 33 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 34 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 34 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 53 33 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 35 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 40 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 48 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 49 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 49 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 48 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 63 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 39 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 58 38 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 37 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 36 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 36 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 56 36 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 34 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 35 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 35 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 34 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 36 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 39 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 63 44 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 46 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 47 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 67 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 66 46 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 43 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 42 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 41 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 61 41 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 60 40 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 59 39 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 58 38 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 56 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 56 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 34 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 34 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 57 37 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 41 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 62 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 62 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 61 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 58 38 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 57 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 36 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 55 35 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 54 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 53 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 53 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 52 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 51 31 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 32 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 53 33 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 31 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 54 34 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 58 39 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 66 49 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 67 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 68 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 49 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 48 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 66 46 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 41 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 59 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 58 38 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 56 36 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 54 34 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 52 32 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 52 32 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 31 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst