Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 63 43 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 42 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 41 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 41 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 43 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 47 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 51 SW 6 446 440 140 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 53 W 7 483 440 140 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 70 53 W 7 483 440 140 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 70 52 W 9 464 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 71 52 W 9 464 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 72 52 W 8 464 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 71 51 NW 5 446 440 140 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 50 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 48 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 45 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 43 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 41 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 42 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 42 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 41 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 41 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 40 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 41 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 45 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 51 W 7 446 440 140 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 52 W 7 464 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 69 51 W 8 446 440 140 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 51 W 8 446 440 140 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 51 NW 8 446 440 140 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 52 NW 7 464 440 140 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 73 53 N 7 483 440 140 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 74 54 NE 7 502 446 146 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 73 53 NE 6 483 440 140 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 71 51 NE 5 446 440 140 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 48 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 44 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 40 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 40 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 42 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 45 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 52 W 5 464 440 140 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 72 55 W 6 520 464 164 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 71 54 W 8 502 446 146 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 72 55 W 9 520 464 164 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 72 54 W 8 502 446 146 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 71 52 NW 7 464 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 70 50 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 49 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 49 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 48 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 47 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 43 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 36 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 40 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 46 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 51 SW 6 446 440 140 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 52 SW 6 464 440 140 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 70 52 SW 6 464 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 68 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 47 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 45 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 44 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 43 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 37 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 37 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 38 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 41 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 44 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 49 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 49 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 44 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 44 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 43 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 38 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 41 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 44 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 47 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 46 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 43 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 39 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst