Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 61 41 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 40 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 40 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 41 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 43 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 50 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 51 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 52 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 50 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 49 S 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 47 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 46 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 45 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 44 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 42 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 S 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 40 SW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 SW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 SW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 38 SW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 38 SW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 37 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 37 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 38 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 38 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 37 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 37 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 38 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 37 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 37 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 34 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 35 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 37 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 38 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 39 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 40 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 38 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 39 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 39 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 38 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 35 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 34 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 33 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 40 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 42 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 43 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 42 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 41 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 40 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 39 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 39 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 34 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 40 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 44 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 46 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 46 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 45 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 43 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 41 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 39 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 38 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 33 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 41 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 45 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 45 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 42 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 41 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 40 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 39 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst