Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 36 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 40 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 42 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 43 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 43 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 46 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 46 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 46 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 45 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 44 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 44 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 37 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 40 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 46 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 45 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 45 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 44 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 43 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 41 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 40 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 38 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 38 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 39 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 40 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 47 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 48 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 47 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 47 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 46 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 44 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 43 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 39 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 39 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 38 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 37 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 37 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 39 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 40 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 41 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 48 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 48 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 46 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 44 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 39 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 38 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 38 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 43 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 47 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 45 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 44 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst