Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 55 35 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 40 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 44 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 46 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 44 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 42 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 41 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 34 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 43 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 47 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 45 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 43 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 42 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 41 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 39 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 38 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 37 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 35 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 42 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 43 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 41 W 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 40 W 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 39 W 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 38 W 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 37 W 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 W 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 W 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 W 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 W 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 34 NW 21 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 34 NW 21 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 NW 21 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 NW 21 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 NW 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 NW 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 35 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 34 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 33 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 32 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 31 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 31 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 30 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 29 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 31 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 35 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 38 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 41 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 40 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 38 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 35 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 31 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 30 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 35 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 39 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 41 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 42 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 43 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 40 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 39 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 37 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 35 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 34 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 34 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst