Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1019 - 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1019 - 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 41 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 42 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 45 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 71 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 57 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 71 56 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 70 53 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 51 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 47 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 46 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 44 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 44 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 44 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 43 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 43 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 43 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 44 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 46 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 49 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 71 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 71 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 57 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 55 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 71 54 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 70 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 46 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 45 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 45 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 44 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 45 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 46 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 48 SE 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 51 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 72 58 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 72 56 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 55 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 71 52 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 49 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 48 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 48 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 47 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 47 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 47 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 45 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 46 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 46 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 48 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 51 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 58 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 59 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 59 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 74 60 SW 10 459 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 73 57 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 72 55 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 53 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 47 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 46 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 45 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 51 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 59 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 59 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 74 60 W 10 459 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 73 57 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 73 56 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 53 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 46 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 46 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 47 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 51 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 58 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 73 59 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 59 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 74 60 W 12 459 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 73 57 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 55 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 72 53 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 48 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 48 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst