Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 64 44 NW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 43 NW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 42 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 42 NNE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 42 NNE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 42 N 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 43 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 45 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 47 NNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 52 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 54 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 55 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 55 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 53 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 51 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 49 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 49 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 47 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 46 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 46 WNW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 46 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 46 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 45 NW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 45 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 45 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 44 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 44 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 44 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 44 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 44 NNE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 45 NNE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 46 N 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 48 NW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 52 W 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 54 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 70 56 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 70 55 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 53 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 69 51 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 69 50 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 49 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 47 WNW 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 46 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 46 NW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 45 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 45 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 44 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 44 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 44 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 44 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 43 N 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 43 N 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 43 N 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 43 N 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 44 N 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 46 N 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 47 NW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 53 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 55 NW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 55 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 56 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 53 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 52 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 50 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 49 NW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 47 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 45 NW 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 45 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 45 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 45 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 46 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 53 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 54 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 55 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 55 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 52 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 51 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 49 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 46 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 45 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 45 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 45 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 44 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 44 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 44 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 44 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 43 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 43 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 43 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 43 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 44 SE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 46 SE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 48 SE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 54 SSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 56 SSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 56 SSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 57 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 70 54 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 53 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 70 51 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 70 50 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 48 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 46 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 45 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 45 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 45 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 44 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 44 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 44 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 44 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 45 S 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 47 S 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 49 S 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 55 WSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 57 WSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 71 57 WSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 57 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 71 55 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 53 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 71 52 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 51 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 49 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 47 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst