Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 42 SE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 42 SE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 42 SE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 44 SE 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 47 SE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 50 SE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 54 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 55 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 57 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 72 56 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 72 55 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 71 53 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 50 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 48 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 45 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 44 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 43 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 42 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 42 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 42 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 43 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 43 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 42 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 42 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 42 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 42 SE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 44 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 46 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 49 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 53 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 55 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 56 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 72 55 SW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 54 SW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 52 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 51 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 48 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 45 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 44 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 43 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 42 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 42 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 42 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 43 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 43 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 42 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 42 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 42 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 42 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 42 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 52 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 73 58 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 57 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 54 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 51 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 44 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 43 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 42 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 43 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 43 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 42 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 42 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 42 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 42 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 45 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 49 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 54 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 57 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 75 60 W 10 542 440 140 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 77 62 W 10 1151 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 78 63 W 17 1681 540 240 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 77 61 W 17 847 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 76 58 W 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 74 55 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 72 52 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 48 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 46 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 46 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 45 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 45 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 45 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 45 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 45 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 47 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 51 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 55 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 62 W 8 1151 440 140 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 77 63 W 8 1681 540 240 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 78 63 W 13 1681 540 240 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 77 61 W 13 847 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 75 57 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 74 55 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 51 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 48 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 46 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 45 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 45 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 44 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 44 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 44 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 47 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 51 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 56 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 59 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 63 SW 7 1681 540 240 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 79 65 SW 7 3472 1143 843 White 5
2 PM Wed 80 65 W 10 3472 1143 843 White 5
3 PM Wed 79 63 W 10 1681 540 240 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 77 59 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 75 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 52 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 45 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 43 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst