Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 36 36 E 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 E 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 E 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SE 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 S 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 SW 2 3320 3211 1211 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 59 62 SW 5 3886 3437 1437 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 62 65 SW 7 6436 3882 1882 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 62 64 SW 10 5155 3734 1734 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 63 64 SW 10 5155 3734 1734 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 60 60 SW 10 3588 3338 1338 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 3338 3283 1283 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 52 52 W 6 2898 2615 615 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 SW 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 S 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 SE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 S 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 SW 1 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 S 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 NE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 NE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 NE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 53 E 2 3212 2615 615 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 E 3 3357 3302 1302 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 58 61 E 5 3737 3357 1357 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 58 60 E 6 3588 3338 1338 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 58 59 E 7 3439 3320 1320 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 56 56 NE 9 3320 3211 1211 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 52 52 NE 12 2898 2615 615 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 16 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 NE 20 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NE 22 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 NE 22 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 NE 22 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 NE 21 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 NE 20 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NE 18 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 NE 18 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 NE 20 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 NE 22 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NE 22 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 NE 15 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 NE 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NE 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 E 5 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 E 7 3283 2615 615 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 55 58 E 6 3357 3302 1302 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 56 59 E 6 3439 3320 1320 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 58 60 E 5 3588 3338 1338 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 60 61 E 6 3737 3357 1357 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 60 60 E 7 3588 3338 1338 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 59 59 E 7 3439 3320 1320 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 54 54 E 7 3283 2615 615 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 46 46 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NE 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 NE 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 E 2 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 E 5 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 E 10 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 10 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 10 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 E 9 3302 2899 899 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 60 62 E 13 3886 3437 1437 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 64 67 E 13 7233 5059 3059 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 65 68 E 13 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 13 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 65 66 E 13 7056 4249 2249 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 65 65 E 13 6436 3882 1882 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 61 61 NE 12 3737 3357 1357 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 54 54 NE 12 3283 2615 615 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 46 46 NE 12 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 E 9 3283 2615 615 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 61 63 E 7 4281 3585 1585 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 66 68 E 7 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 67 69 E 7 7587 7033 5033 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 68 70 SE 7 7768 7209 5209 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 67 68 SE 7 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 67 67 SE 7 7233 5059 3059 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 63 63 SE 8 4281 3585 1585 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 56 56 SE 8 3320 3211 1211 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 47 47 SE 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 E 6 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 E 9 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 E 8 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 E 8 3320 3211 1211 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 61 62 SE 8 3886 3437 1437 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 65 66 SE 8 7056 4249 2249 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 67 68 SE 8 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 67 68 S 8 7410 6309 4309 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 68 69 S 8 7587 7033 5033 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 67 67 S 8 7233 5059 3059 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 64 64 SW 8 5155 3734 1734 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 58 58 SW 8 3357 3302 1302 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 8 3212 2615 615 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 SE 5 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 SE 5 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 SE 5 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2615 2615 615 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst