Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NW 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 W 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 79 W 2 4622 3816 1816 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 82 87 SW 7 7244 6016 4016 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 86 92 SW 9 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 86 93 SW 9 8673 7747 5747 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 86 92 SW 13 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 87 92 SW 13 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 86 89 SW 13 7597 7029 5029 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 84 85 SW 13 6586 5389 3389 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 5407 4608 2608 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 8 3823 3012 1012 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 E 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NW 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 W 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 80 W 2 4926 4082 2082 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 83 88 W 5 7421 6529 4529 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 86 92 SW 7 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 86 92 SW 8 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 86 92 SW 10 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 87 91 W 10 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 86 89 W 10 7597 7029 5029 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 85 86 W 9 7068 5625 3625 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 5407 4608 2608 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 4091 3282 1282 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 5 3013 2530 530 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 7 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 8 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 E 9 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 13 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 70 E 15 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 81 E 15 5167 4346 2346 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 83 87 E 16 7244 6016 4016 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 86 91 SE 15 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 86 92 SE 14 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 86 91 SE 12 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 87 91 SE 10 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 86 88 SE 8 7421 6529 4529 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 85 86 S 8 7068 5625 3625 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 82 82 S 7 5407 4608 2608 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 77 77 SW 6 4091 3282 1282 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 E 2 3284 2530 530 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 0 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 NE 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 E 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SE 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SE 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 N 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 SW 1 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 SW 1 2740 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 81 SW 1 5167 4346 2346 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 83 87 S 5 7244 6016 4016 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 86 91 S 5 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 86 92 S 5 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 87 92 SW 12 8345 7572 5572 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 87 91 SW 12 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 86 88 SW 12 7421 6529 4529 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 85 86 SW 12 7068 5625 3625 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 12 5407 4608 2608 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 4357 3550 1550 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 2 3284 2530 530 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 E 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 E 2 3284 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 83 E 2 5645 4904 2904 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 85 90 SE 7 7773 7221 5221 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 88 94 SE 7 9452 7961 5961 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 88 94 SE 7 9452 7961 5961 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 89 94 SW 10 9452 7961 5961 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 89 93 SW 10 8673 7747 5747 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 88 90 SW 10 7773 7221 5221 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 87 88 SW 12 7421 6529 4529 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 84 84 SW 12 6066 5151 3151 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 12 4622 3816 1816 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 75 75 SE 0 3554 2742 742 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 71 SE 0 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 SE 0 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 N 7 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 N 3 3013 2530 530 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 83 N 3 5645 4904 2904 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 85 90 W 5 7773 7221 5221 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 88 94 W 5 9452 7961 5961 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 88 94 W 5 9452 7961 5961 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 89 95 SW 12 9719 8289 6289 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 89 93 SW 12 8673 7747 5747 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 88 91 SW 12 8014 7396 5396 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 86 87 W 13 7244 6016 4016 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 84 84 W 13 6066 5151 3151 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 4357 3550 1550 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 N 2 3284 2530 530 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 N 2 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 8 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 N 8 2530 2530 530 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 8 2530 2530 530 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst