Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 NW 5 2983 2946 946 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 NW 6 3969 3416 1416 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 82 86 NW 6 5762 5333 3333 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 87 93 W 6 9101 7486 5486 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 90 97 W 6 10210 9272 7272 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 92 100 W 5 12484 10149 8149 White 28
2 PM Sun 93 100 W 7 12484 10149 8149 White 28
3 PM Sun 92 98 W 8 10477 9445 7445 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 92 96 W 8 9942 9029 7029 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 90 92 W 8 8724 7067 5067 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 86 87 W 8 6100 5436 3436 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 4286 3653 1653 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 3 3418 3081 1081 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 3 2983 2946 946 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 NW 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 N 3 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 80 81 W 1 4399 3960 1960 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 87 89 SW 1 7103 5737 3737 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 93 97 SW 2 10210 9272 7272 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 97 103 S 5 13103 11636 9636 White 31
12 Noon Mon 99 106 S 6 13719 13719 11719 White 34
1 PM Mon 98 105 SW 7 13515 13515 11515 White 33
2 PM Mon 98 105 SW 10 13515 13515 11515 White 33
3 PM Mon 98 103 SW 10 13103 11636 9636 White 31
4 PM Mon 97 101 SW 10 12691 10414 8414 White 29
5 PM Mon 94 96 W 10 9942 9029 7029 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 91 92 W 10 8724 7067 5067 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 8 6100 5436 3436 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 3 4941 4170 2170 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 1 3969 3416 1416 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 0 3531 3191 1191 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 74 74 N 3 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 N 2 3191 2946 946 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 73 73 N 2 3191 2946 946 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 72 72 N 5 3081 2946 946 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2983 2946 946 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 N 5 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 N 6 2983 2946 946 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 N 6 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 80 80 N 3 4286 3653 1653 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 86 87 W 2 6100 5436 3436 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 92 95 W 2 9512 8655 6655 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 97 102 W 3 12896 10675 8675 White 30
11 AM Tue 100 106 SW 7 13719 13719 11719 White 34
12 Noon Tue 102 109 SW 9 14325 14325 12325 White 37
1 PM Tue 103 110 SW 10 14525 14525 12525 White 38
2 PM Tue 102 109 SW 13 14325 14325 12325 White 37
3 PM Tue 103 109 SW 13 14325 14325 12325 White 37
4 PM Tue 102 106 SW 12 13719 13719 11719 White 34
5 PM Tue 100 102 SW 12 12896 10675 8675 White 30
6 PM Tue 97 98 SW 9 10477 9445 7445 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 93 93 SW 7 9101 7486 5486 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 89 89 SW 5 7103 5737 3737 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 85 85 W 3 5547 4906 2906 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 81 81 NW 2 4399 3960 1960 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 79 79 N 2 4174 3529 1529 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 N 3 3969 3416 1416 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 77 77 N 5 3659 3303 1303 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 76 76 N 6 3531 3191 1191 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 74 74 N 7 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 74 74 N 7 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 76 76 N 7 3531 3191 1191 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 80 80 N 7 4286 3653 1653 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 85 85 N 7 5547 4906 2906 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 91 92 W 3 8724 7067 5067 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 96 98 W 3 10477 9445 7445 Blue 26
10 AM Wed 99 103 W 3 13103 11636 9636 White 31
11 AM Wed 101 107 SW 10 13924 13924 11924 White 35
12 Noon Wed 102 109 SW 10 14325 14325 12325 White 37
1 PM Wed 103 110 SW 10 14525 14525 12525 White 38
2 PM Wed 103 110 SW 14 14525 14525 12525 White 38
3 PM Wed 102 108 SW 14 14126 14126 12126 White 36
4 PM Wed 101 105 SW 14 13515 13515 11515 White 33
5 PM Wed 98 100 W 12 12484 10149 8149 White 28
6 PM Wed 95 96 W 12 9942 9029 7029 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 91 91 W 12 8284 6784 4784 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 5 6100 5436 3436 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 83 83 SW 5 5341 4282 2282 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 80 80 SW 5 4286 3653 1653 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 78 78 N 2 3969 3416 1416 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 N 2 3659 3303 1303 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 76 76 N 2 3531 3191 1191 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 76 76 N 3 3531 3191 1191 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 75 75 N 3 3418 3081 1081 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 74 74 N 3 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 74 74 N 5 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 77 77 N 5 3659 3303 1303 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 81 81 N 5 4399 3960 1960 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 86 87 W 2 6100 5436 3436 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 89 91 W 2 8284 6784 4784 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 92 96 W 2 9942 9029 7029 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 95 101 SW 10 12691 10414 8414 White 29
12 Noon Thu 96 103 SW 10 13103 11636 9636 White 31
1 PM Thu 97 105 SW 10 13515 13515 11515 White 33
2 PM Thu 97 104 SW 14 13310 13310 11310 White 32
3 PM Thu 96 102 SW 14 12896 10675 8675 White 30
4 PM Thu 95 99 SW 14 10762 9882 7882 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 93 95 SW 13 9512 8655 6655 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 89 90 SW 13 7587 6062 4062 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 84 84 SW 13 5444 4394 2394 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 5 4174 3529 1529 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 5 3418 3081 1081 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 72 72 SW 5 3081 2946 946 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 N 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 N 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 N 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 N 3 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 N 3 3305 2983 983 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 79 80 SW 3 4286 3653 1653 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 84 86 SW 3 5762 5333 3333 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 89 93 SW 3 9101 7486 5486 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 92 97 SW 9 10210 9272 7272 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 94 99 SW 9 10762 9882 7882 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 94 100 SW 9 12484 10149 8149 White 28
2 PM Fri 93 98 SW 13 10477 9445 7445 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 92 96 SW 13 9942 9029 7029 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 90 93 SW 13 9101 7486 5486 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 88 90 SW 10 7587 6062 4062 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 84 84 SW 10 5444 4394 2394 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 10 4399 3960 1960 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 6 3659 3303 1303 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 73 73 SW 6 3191 2946 946 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 6 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 NW 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SE 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 SE 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SE 1 2946 2946 946 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst