Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 40 40 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 42 42 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 52 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 55 55 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 54 54 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 53 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 53 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 58 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 62 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 61 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 60 60 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 58 58 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 54 54 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 47 47 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 52 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 58 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 67 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 69 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 68 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 68 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 65 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 60 60 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 54 54 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 47 47 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 38 38 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 59 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 65 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 69 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 71 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 72 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 70 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 48 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 43 43 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 41 41 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 40 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 55 57 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 61 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 60 62 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 60 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 57 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 40 40 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 37 37 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 36 36 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 37 37 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 40 40 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 47 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 50 52 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 54 56 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 60 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 60 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 59 61 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 58 59 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 56 56 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 52 52 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 47 47 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 44 44 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 39 39 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 37 37 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 37 37 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst