Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 3 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 E 3 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 E 2 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 SW 1 4172 4029 2029 White 4
10 AM Fri 58 59 W 2 5289 4915 2915 White 9
11 AM Fri 62 65 W 7 6599 6221 4221 White 15
12 Noon Fri 65 68 W 9 7247 6860 4860 White 18
1 PM Fri 66 69 W 10 7411 7099 5099 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 65 68 W 13 7247 6860 4860 White 18
3 PM Fri 65 67 W 14 7032 6559 4559 White 17
4 PM Fri 65 66 W 14 6816 6352 4352 White 16
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 14 6382 6091 4091 White 14
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 5946 5365 3365 White 12
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 13 5069 4827 2827 White 8
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 4612 4570 2570 White 6
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 3 3952 3224 1224 White 3
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 3 3509 2461 461 White 1
11 PM Fri 50 50 SW 1 3285 2461 461 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 S 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 S 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 SW 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SW 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 0 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 0 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 W 1 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 W 2 4392 4300 2300 White 5
10 AM Sat 60 61 W 2 5730 5130 3130 White 11
11 AM Sat 64 68 SW 6 7247 6860 4860 White 18
12 Noon Sat 68 73 W 6 8145 7635 5635 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 68 73 W 6 8145 7635 5635 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 68 72 W 9 8010 7397 5397 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 68 71 W 9 7874 7298 5298 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 68 70 W 12 7676 7199 5199 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 13 7032 6559 4559 White 17
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 10 6599 6221 4221 White 15
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 5730 5130 3130 White 11
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 5069 4827 2827 White 8
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 4612 4570 2570 White 6
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 5 4172 4029 2029 White 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 3952 3224 1224 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 5 3731 2461 461 White 2
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 3509 2461 461 White 1
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 7 3285 2461 461 White 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 8 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 13 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 10 3952 3224 1224 White 3
9 AM Sun 60 61 NE 10 5730 5130 3130 White 11
10 AM Sun 66 69 NE 10 7411 7099 5099 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 72 77 NE 3 9182 8257 6257 White 27
12 Noon Sun 76 82 NE 3 10243 10243 8243 White 32
1 PM Sun 76 82 NE 3 10243 10243 8243 White 32
2 PM Sun 76 81 SE 5 10035 9925 7925 White 31
3 PM Sun 76 80 SE 5 9823 9325 7325 White 30
4 PM Sun 76 78 SE 5 9396 8392 6392 White 28
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 0 8416 7987 5987 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 0 8010 7397 5397 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 0 7032 6559 4559 White 17
8 PM Sun 64 64 E 2 6382 6091 4091 White 14
9 PM Sun 60 60 E 2 5510 5002 3002 White 10
10 PM Sun 58 58 E 2 5069 4827 2827 White 8
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 15 4612 4570 2570 White 6
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 15 4612 4570 2570 White 6
1 AM Mon 54 54 NE 15 4172 4029 2029 White 4
2 AM Mon 53 53 NE 14 3952 3224 1224 White 3
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 14 3731 2461 461 White 2
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 14 3509 2461 461 White 1
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 16 3509 2461 461 White 1
6 AM Mon 50 50 NE 16 3285 2461 461 White 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 2461 2461 461 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 20 4392 4300 2300 White 5
9 AM Mon 62 63 NE 20 6164 5639 3639 White 13
10 AM Mon 68 71 NE 20 7874 7298 5298 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 74 78 NE 16 9396 8392 6392 White 28
12 Noon Mon 78 83 NE 16 10453 10453 8453 White 33
1 PM Mon 78 83 NE 16 10453 10453 8453 White 33
2 PM Mon 79 84 N 14 10661 10661 8661 White 34
3 PM Mon 78 81 N 14 10035 9925 7925 White 31
4 PM Mon 78 80 N 14 9823 9325 7325 White 30
5 PM Mon 76 77 N 15 9182 8257 6257 White 27
6 PM Mon 74 74 N 15 8280 7853 5853 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 69 69 N 15 7411 7099 5099 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 66 66 NE 9 6816 6352 4352 White 16
9 PM Mon 62 62 NE 9 5946 5365 3365 White 12
10 PM Mon 60 60 NE 9 5510 5002 3002 White 10
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 16 5069 4827 2827 White 8
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 16 5069 4827 2827 White 8
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 16 4612 4570 2570 White 6
2 AM Tue 55 55 N 17 4392 4300 2300 White 5
3 AM Tue 54 54 N 17 4172 4029 2029 White 4
4 AM Tue 53 53 N 17 3952 3224 1224 White 3
5 AM Tue 53 53 NE 21 3952 3224 1224 White 3
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 21 3731 2461 461 White 2
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 21 3509 2461 461 White 1
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 23 4850 4728 2728 White 7
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 23 6599 6221 4221 White 15
10 AM Tue 71 74 NE 23 8280 7853 5853 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 76 81 NE 8 10035 9925 7925 White 31
12 Noon Tue 81 87 NE 8 11285 11285 9285 White 37
1 PM Tue 81 87 NE 8 11285 11285 9285 White 37
2 PM Tue 82 87 NE 3 11285 11285 9285 White 37
3 PM Tue 81 85 NE 3 10869 10869 8869 White 35
4 PM Tue 81 83 NE 3 10453 10453 8453 White 33
5 PM Tue 79 80 N 5 9823 9325 7325 White 30
6 PM Tue 76 76 N 5 8967 8122 6122 White 26
7 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 8010 7397 5397 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 7247 6860 4860 White 18
9 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 6599 6221 4221 White 15
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 5946 5365 3365 White 12
11 PM Tue 61 61 NE 10 5730 5130 3130 White 11
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 10 5510 5002 3002 White 10
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 10 5289 4915 2915 White 9
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 12 4850 4728 2728 White 7
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 12 4612 4570 2570 White 6
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 12 4392 4300 2300 White 5
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 13 4392 4300 2300 White 5
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 4172 4029 2029 White 4
7 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 3952 3224 1224 White 3
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 10 5289 4915 2915 White 9
9 AM Wed 65 67 NE 10 7032 6559 4559 White 17
10 AM Wed 72 75 NE 10 8416 7987 5987 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 77 81 E 12 10035 9925 7925 White 31
12 Noon Wed 81 86 E 12 11076 11076 9076 White 36
1 PM Wed 81 87 E 12 11285 11285 9285 White 37
2 PM Wed 82 87 E 9 11285 11285 9285 White 37
3 PM Wed 81 85 E 9 10869 10869 8869 White 35
4 PM Wed 81 83 E 9 10453 10453 8453 White 33
5 PM Wed 79 80 E 7 9823 9325 7325 White 30
6 PM Wed 76 76 E 7 8967 8122 6122 White 26
7 PM Wed 70 70 E 7 7676 7199 5199 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 66 66 N 2 6816 6352 4352 White 16
9 PM Wed 62 62 N 2 5946 5365 3365 White 12
10 PM Wed 60 60 N 2 5510 5002 3002 White 10
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 7 5069 4827 2827 White 8
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 7 4850 4728 2728 White 7
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 4612 4570 2570 White 6
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 16 4172 4029 2029 White 4
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 16 3952 3224 1224 White 3
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 16 3731 2461 461 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst