Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 N 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 SW 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 SW 1 3264 3005 1005 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 66 69 SW 3 6152 4901 2901 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 68 71 SW 6 6758 5817 3817 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 70 73 SW 7 8594 6422 4422 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 70 73 SW 9 8594 6422 4422 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 70 72 SW 10 7421 6121 4121 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 70 71 SW 10 6758 5817 3817 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 5845 4367 2367 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 9 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 3053 2893 893 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SE 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 1 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NW 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 W 6 2893 2812 812 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 63 W 8 3264 3005 1005 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 63 66 W 9 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 64 67 W 10 5536 3817 1817 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 64 67 W 12 5536 3817 1817 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 64 66 W 13 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 13 4391 3129 1129 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 63 64 W 13 3832 3053 1053 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 3053 2893 893 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 57 57 W 8 2836 2812 812 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NW 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 NW 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 58 NW 9 2893 2812 812 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 63 NW 12 3264 3005 1005 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 61 66 W 13 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 62 67 W 14 5536 3817 1817 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 62 67 W 15 5536 3817 1817 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 62 66 W 15 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 62 64 W 15 3832 3053 1053 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 60 61 W 15 3053 2893 893 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 13 2951 2812 812 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 10 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 7 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 SW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 W 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NW 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 NW 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NW 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NW 5 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 60 NW 5 3005 2836 836 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 65 NW 6 4391 3129 1129 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 64 69 NW 6 6152 4901 2901 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 66 71 NW 6 6758 5817 3817 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 67 72 NW 8 7421 6121 4121 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 66 70 NW 8 6456 5511 3511 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 66 68 NW 8 5845 4367 2367 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 64 65 W 10 4391 3129 1129 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 10 3264 3005 1005 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 2893 2812 812 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 E 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 10 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 10 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 10 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 16 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 16 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 62 NE 16 3130 2951 951 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 64 69 N 12 6152 4901 2901 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 66 72 N 12 7421 6121 4121 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 68 74 N 12 8810 6721 4721 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 69 74 N 10 8810 6721 4721 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 68 72 N 10 7421 6121 4121 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 68 70 N 10 6456 5511 3511 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 66 67 N 9 5536 3817 1817 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 9 3832 3053 1053 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 9 2951 2812 812 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 9 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 9 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 9 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NE 14 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NE 14 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NE 14 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NE 15 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 15 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 15 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 15 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 63 NE 15 3264 3005 1005 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 65 70 N 14 6456 5511 3511 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 67 73 N 14 8594 6422 4422 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 69 75 N 14 8943 7269 5269 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 70 76 N 12 9120 8504 6504 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 69 73 N 12 8594 6422 4422 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 69 71 N 12 6758 5817 3817 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 67 68 N 7 5845 4367 2367 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 7 4934 3263 1263 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 60 60 N 7 3005 2836 836 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 S 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 S 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 S 2 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 2812 2812 812 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst