Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 W 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 52 W 2 3931 3429 1429 White 0
9 AM Sun 57 60 SW 2 5290 4913 2913 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 64 69 SW 3 6317 6094 4094 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 70 77 SW 6 7328 6670 4670 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 73 81 SW 7 8449 7569 5569 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 75 83 SW 8 8880 8125 6125 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 74 81 SW 9 8449 7569 5569 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 75 80 SW 9 8172 7288 5288 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 74 78 SW 10 7611 6742 4742 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 71 73 SW 10 6606 6382 4382 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 6101 5681 3681 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 8 5413 5035 3035 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 4826 4525 2525 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 52 52 SW 1 3931 3429 1429 White 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 SW 1 3486 2620 620 White 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 N 2 3265 2546 546 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 2 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 3265 2546 546 White 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 4152 3825 1825 White 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 N 1 5167 4820 2820 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 66 68 W 1 6245 5973 3973 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 72 75 SW 2 6757 6526 4526 Blue 23
10 AM Mon 78 83 SW 2 8880 8125 6125 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 81 87 SW 3 9876 9064 7064 Blue 35
12 Noon Mon 83 90 SW 7 12191 9819 7819 White 38
1 PM Mon 82 89 SW 7 11982 9568 7568 White 37
2 PM Mon 82 89 SW 9 11982 9568 7568 White 37
3 PM Mon 81 86 SW 9 9623 8840 6840 Blue 34
4 PM Mon 80 83 SW 9 8880 8125 6125 Blue 31
5 PM Mon 76 78 SW 9 7611 6742 4742 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 72 72 SW 8 6534 6310 4310 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 6101 5681 3681 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 3 5413 5035 3035 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 1 4826 4525 2525 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 0 4373 4215 2215 White 3
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 2 3931 3429 1429 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 3 3709 3028 1028 White 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 3709 3028 1028 White 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 5 3709 3028 1028 White 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 3486 2620 620 White 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 3265 2546 546 White 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 3709 3028 1028 White 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 7 4826 4525 2525 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 5841 5403 3403 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 72 74 NW 2 6678 6454 4454 Blue 22
9 AM Tue 78 81 W 2 8449 7569 5569 Blue 29
10 AM Tue 83 88 S 2 10121 9317 7317 Blue 36
11 AM Tue 85 92 SW 7 12606 10894 8894 White 40
12 Noon Tue 85 93 SW 9 12811 11842 9842 White 41
1 PM Tue 85 93 SW 9 12811 11842 9842 White 41
2 PM Tue 84 91 SW 12 12399 10066 8066 White 39
3 PM Tue 82 88 SW 12 10121 9317 7317 Blue 36
4 PM Tue 80 84 SW 10 9115 8400 6400 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 77 79 SW 10 7892 7006 5006 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 6606 6382 4382 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 6317 6094 4094 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 2 5987 5535 3535 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 1 5413 5035 3035 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 59 59 NW 1 5167 4820 2820 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 57 57 NW 1 4921 4624 2624 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 2 4826 4525 2525 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 4373 4215 2215 White 3
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 2 3931 3429 1429 White 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 2 3486 2620 620 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 1 3709 3028 1028 White 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NW 1 4596 4419 2419 White 4
8 AM Wed 61 62 W 7 5548 5158 3158 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 66 69 W 7 6317 6094 4094 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 71 76 W 7 7044 6598 4598 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 74 81 SW 10 8449 7569 5569 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 76 84 SW 10 9115 8400 6400 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 77 85 SW 10 9370 8636 6636 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 77 84 SW 13 9115 8400 6400 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 76 82 SW 13 8674 7848 5848 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 74 78 SW 13 7611 6742 4742 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 72 74 SW 12 6678 6454 4454 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 12 6317 6094 4094 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 5987 5535 3535 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 5413 5035 3035 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 7 4921 4624 2624 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 54 54 SW 7 4373 4215 2215 White 3
11 PM Wed 52 52 S 1 3931 3429 1429 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 S 1 3709 3028 1028 White 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 1 3486 2620 620 White 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SE 1 3265 2546 546 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SE 1 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SE 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 E 1 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 E 1 3709 3028 1028 White 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SW 2 4921 4624 2624 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 2 5548 5158 3158 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 64 67 SW 2 6173 5827 3827 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 67 73 SW 10 6606 6382 4382 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 69 76 SW 10 7044 6598 4598 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 70 77 SW 10 7328 6670 4670 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 70 77 SW 13 7328 6670 4670 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 70 75 SW 13 6757 6526 4526 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 68 71 SW 13 6462 6238 4238 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 66 68 SW 14 6245 5973 3973 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 14 5841 5403 3403 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 14 5290 4913 2913 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 5 4826 4525 2525 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 5 4152 3825 1825 White 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 5 3486 2620 620 White 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NW 1 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NW 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NW 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NW 2 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NW 2 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NW 2 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NW 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NW 1 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 1 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 W 5 4152 3825 1825 White 0
9 AM Fri 57 60 W 5 5290 4913 2913 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 61 65 W 5 5987 5535 3535 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 65 72 W 9 6534 6310 4310 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 68 76 W 9 7044 6598 4598 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 70 78 W 9 7611 6742 4742 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 71 78 W 12 7611 6742 4742 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 71 77 W 12 7328 6670 4670 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 70 74 W 12 6678 6454 4454 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 68 70 W 12 6390 6166 4166 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 12 5841 5403 3403 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 5167 4820 2820 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 4373 4215 2215 White 3
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 7 3486 2620 620 White 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 7 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 3 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 3 2546 2546 546 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 3 2615 2546 546 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 3028 2546 546 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 3028 2546 546 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst