Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 E 9 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 E 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 E 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 E 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 E 8 3567 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 71 E 8 5725 3857 1857 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 71 73 E 8 6409 4770 2770 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 70 71 E 7 5725 3857 1857 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 70 70 E 7 4806 3561 1561 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 68 68 E 6 3865 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 SE 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 SE 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 68 S 5 3865 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 72 S 5 6231 4150 2150 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 72 74 SW 6 6833 5629 3629 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 71 72 SW 7 6231 4150 2150 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 71 71 SW 7 5725 3857 1857 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 3865 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 SW 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 3 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 SE 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 SE 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 S 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 E 0 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 E 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SE 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SE 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 S 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 NW 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 48 W 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 W 13 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 55 W 15 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 54 W 15 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 W 16 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 W 14 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 W 14 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 14 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 13 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 13 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 13 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 W 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 W 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 W 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 W 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 50 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 52 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 54 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 12 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 N 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 N 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 N 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NE 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 NE 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NE 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 E 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 E 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 E 2 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 E 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 E 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 SE 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 SE 7 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 SE 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 SE 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 57 SE 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 58 SW 3 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 58 SW 3 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 W 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 N 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 N 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NW 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 NW 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 63 NW 5 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 64 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 64 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 NW 10 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 NW 8 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 NW 6 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 NW 1 2979 2979 979 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst