Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 E 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 S 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 67 S 2 4980 3669 1669 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 70 73 S 3 6290 6059 4059 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 72 75 S 3 6516 6191 4191 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 72 74 S 3 6380 6124 4124 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 72 73 S 3 6290 6059 4059 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 70 70 SE 3 6066 4954 2954 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 65 65 SE 3 4433 2654 654 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 58 58 SE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 E 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 E 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 E 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 E 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 W 0 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 67 SW 2 4980 3669 1669 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 72 74 W 2 6380 6124 4124 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 75 77 W 2 7387 6370 4370 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 75 76 W 5 6758 6280 4280 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 75 76 W 5 6758 6280 4280 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 71 71 W 5 6131 5930 3930 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 66 66 W 3 4684 2749 749 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 59 59 SW 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 NE 0 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 E 6 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 E 6 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 E 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 6 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 70 E 8 6066 4954 2954 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 76 78 E 10 7990 6500 4500 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 80 82 E 10 9149 8247 6247 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 82 84 E 10 10022 8813 6813 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 81 83 E 10 9447 8531 6531 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 81 82 E 10 9149 8247 6247 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 79 79 E 12 8296 6681 4681 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 74 74 E 10 6380 6124 4124 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 66 66 E 9 4684 2749 749 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 58 58 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 E 10 6001 4670 2670 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 76 78 E 12 7990 6500 4500 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 81 84 E 12 10022 8813 6813 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 83 86 E 12 11141 9371 7371 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 83 85 E 9 10586 9093 7093 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 83 84 E 9 10022 8813 6813 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 81 81 E 9 8866 7896 5896 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 76 76 E 7 6758 6280 4280 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 69 69 E 7 6001 4670 2670 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 61 61 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 7 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 9 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 10 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 E 10 6131 5930 3930 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 78 80 E 6 8582 7301 5301 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 82 85 E 6 10586 9093 7093 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 83 86 E 6 11141 9371 7371 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 83 85 SE 5 10586 9093 7093 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 82 83 SE 5 9447 8531 6531 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 81 81 SE 5 8866 7896 5896 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 78 78 SE 1 7990 6500 4500 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 71 71 SE 1 6131 5930 3930 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 63 63 SE 1 2742 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 NE 5 5936 4422 2422 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 73 75 SW 3 6516 6191 4191 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 77 80 SW 3 8582 7301 5301 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 79 82 SW 3 9149 8247 6247 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 80 82 SW 8 9149 8247 6247 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 80 81 SW 8 8866 7896 5896 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 77 77 SW 8 7387 6370 4370 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 73 73 SW 6 6290 6059 4059 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 4684 2749 749 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 58 58 SW 6 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 1 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 2654 2654 654 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst