Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 10 18 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 19 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 W 10 20 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 10 20 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 19 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 10 19 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 8 16 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 W 7 13 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 50 W 5 10 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 SW 4 8 2524 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 S 3 6 3329 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 58 SE 2 4 3729 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 59 SE 3 5 3929 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 59 SE 3 5 3929 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 58 SE 4 6 3729 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 57 SSE 4 6 3529 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 6 3129 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 S 3 6 2928 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 SSE 2 4 2928 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 SE 1 3 2726 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 ESE 0 1 2524 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 ESE 2 3 2524 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 E 3 4 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 4 6 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 ENE 4 5 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 5 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NE 2 4 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NE 3 5 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 4 6 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 ENE 5 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 5 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 6 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 ENE 6 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 43 E 7 10 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 45 E 9 13 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 46 E 10 16 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 47 E 10 16 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 48 E 10 16 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 48 E 10 15 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 47 E 10 15 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 E 9 15 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 E 8 15 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 E 7 12 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 E 6 9 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 5 6 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 E 5 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 E 5 7 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 E 5 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 E 5 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 E 4 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 E 4 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 4 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 4 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 4 9 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 4 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 5 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 45 E 5 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 47 E 6 10 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 49 E 7 12 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 51 E 8 14 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 52 E 8 13 2524 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 53 E 8 13 2726 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 52 E 8 13 2524 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 49 51 E 7 12 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 E 6 11 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 E 6 10 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 E 5 8 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 E 4 6 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 ENE 3 4 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 ENE 2 4 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 NE 2 4 2497 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NNE 1 3 2497 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst