Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 NW 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 SW 2 2956 2900 900 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 SW 5 4131 3784 1784 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 77 82 SW 9 7633 4919 2919 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 80 86 SW 10 10325 8737 6737 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 81 88 SW 10 10541 9658 7658 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 80 86 W 12 10325 8737 6737 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 81 86 W 12 10325 8737 6737 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 80 83 W 12 8769 5813 3813 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 77 78 W 12 4703 4127 2127 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 9 3682 2956 956 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 65 65 SW 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 SE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 E 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 E 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 E 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 E 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 0 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SE 0 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 S 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 S 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 SW 5 3787 3343 1343 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 79 SW 6 4933 4255 2255 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 77 83 SW 8 8769 5813 3813 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 79 85 SW 9 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 79 85 SW 12 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 80 84 SW 12 9115 7077 5077 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 13 7172 4691 2691 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 74 75 SW 12 4131 3784 1784 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 3347 2900 900 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SE 3 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 E 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NW 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 W 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 68 W 7 2956 2900 900 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 75 SW 9 4131 3784 1784 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 73 79 SW 12 4933 4255 2255 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 75 82 SW 13 7633 4919 2919 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 74 80 SW 14 5928 4461 2461 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 74 79 SW 15 4933 4255 2255 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 15 4260 3888 1888 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 14 3682 2956 956 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 12 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NW 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 N 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 N 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 74 N 1 4003 3680 1680 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 76 81 SE 5 7172 4691 2691 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 79 85 SE 5 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 81 87 SE 5 10427 8978 6978 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 82 88 SE 8 10541 9658 7658 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 81 85 SE 8 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 82 85 SE 8 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 8 4933 4255 2255 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 3787 3343 1343 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NE 6 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 NE 2 3578 2900 900 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 74 77 NE 2 4472 3999 1999 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 78 82 SE 5 7633 4919 2919 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 80 85 SE 5 9803 7585 5585 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 82 87 SE 5 10427 8978 6978 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 84 89 SE 7 10715 10261 8261 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 85 89 SE 7 10715 10261 8261 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 84 86 SE 7 10325 8737 6737 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 83 84 SE 7 9115 7077 5077 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 77 77 SE 7 4472 3999 1999 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 70 70 SE 7 3578 2900 900 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 63 63 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 2 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 E 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 E 5 3578 2900 900 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 77 E 5 4472 3999 1999 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 80 82 E 5 7633 4919 2919 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 84 88 E 7 10541 9658 7658 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 86 90 E 7 11956 10403 8403 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 88 93 E 7 13160 11570 9570 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 87 91 SE 8 12558 10504 8504 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 87 90 SE 8 11956 10403 8403 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 85 87 SE 8 10427 8978 6978 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 81 82 W 8 7633 4919 2919 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 8 4131 3784 1784 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 3347 2900 900 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 NE 1 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 3 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 3 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 5 2900 2900 900 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst