Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 SE 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 SE 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 64 SW 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 70 SW 6 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 74 SW 8 4815 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 72 73 SW 12 3937 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 72 SW 12 2975 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 S 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 S 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 SE 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 SW 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 50 SW 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 49 SW 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 SW 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 SW 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SW 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SW 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SW 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SW 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SW 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 W 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 SW 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 SW 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 W 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 W 6 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 49 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 53 SW 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 54 SW 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 6 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 S 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 SE 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 E 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 E 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 E 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 E 1 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 2 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 E 6 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 57 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 57 SW 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 57 S 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 58 S 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 58 S 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 S 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 S 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 S 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NE 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 62 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 63 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 62 E 14 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 E 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 E 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 E 12 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 10 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 9 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 E 7 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 66 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 68 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 68 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 65 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 63 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 E 8 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 E 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 5 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 3 2444 2444 444 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst