Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 SW 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 83 SW 2 3906 2874 874 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 86 91 SW 3 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 90 97 SW 8 8433 7698 5698 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 93 101 SW 10 10501 8807 6807 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 94 102 SW 12 11140 9452 7452 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 93 101 SW 13 10501 8807 6807 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 94 100 W 13 10043 8394 6394 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 92 97 W 14 8433 7698 5698 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 89 92 W 13 7261 5912 3912 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 84 85 W 12 4498 3490 1490 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 73 73 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 S 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 S 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 S 0 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 SW 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 79 SW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 86 SW 5 4791 3898 1898 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 86 93 SW 7 7497 6507 4507 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 88 96 SW 9 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 88 96 SW 10 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 88 96 SW 12 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 88 94 SW 13 7732 6994 4994 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 13 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 84 86 SW 12 4791 3898 1898 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 79 80 SW 9 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 7 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 S 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SE 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 0 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 SW 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 76 SW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 83 SW 6 3906 2874 874 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 82 88 SW 8 5339 4484 2484 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 85 92 SW 9 7261 5912 3912 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 86 93 SW 12 7497 6507 4507 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 85 91 SW 12 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 86 91 SW 13 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 85 89 SW 13 5968 4775 2775 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 82 84 SW 12 4203 2874 874 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 77 78 SW 9 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 6 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 74 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 81 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 87 SW 8 5070 4192 2192 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 82 90 SW 8 6572 5053 3053 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 84 93 SW 8 7497 6507 4507 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 83 91 SW 12 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 84 91 SW 12 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 82 87 SW 12 5070 4192 2192 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 79 82 SW 12 3500 2874 874 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 76 77 SW 12 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 12 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 72 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 80 NW 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 85 W 7 4498 3490 1490 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 82 90 W 7 6572 5053 3053 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 84 92 W 7 7261 5912 3912 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 83 90 W 12 6572 5053 3053 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 84 90 W 12 6572 5053 3053 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 82 86 W 12 4791 3898 1898 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 80 82 W 10 3500 2874 874 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 77 78 W 10 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 S 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 81 S 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 82 87 S 1 5070 4192 2192 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 86 91 SE 6 7024 5317 3317 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 89 95 SE 6 7967 7230 5230 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 90 96 SE 6 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 90 96 S 9 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 91 96 S 9 8200 7464 5464 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 90 93 S 9 7497 6507 4507 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 9 5968 4775 2775 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 84 85 SW 9 4498 3490 1490 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 NW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 NW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 NW 3 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 E 1 2874 2874 874 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst