Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 E 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 E 14 2844 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 E 14 5811 4044 2044 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 68 70 E 13 6417 6085 4085 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 68 70 E 12 6417 6085 4085 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 69 71 E 10 6499 6245 4245 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 68 69 E 9 6335 5770 3770 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 66 66 E 8 5811 4044 2044 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 63 63 E 6 4050 3497 1497 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 59 59 E 5 2844 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 E 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 E 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NE 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 E 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 E 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 SE 3 2844 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 S 3 5811 4044 2044 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 67 69 S 3 6335 5770 3770 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 69 71 SW 5 6499 6245 4245 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 68 70 SW 6 6417 6085 4085 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 68 69 SW 7 6335 5770 3770 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 66 66 W 7 5811 4044 2044 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 4050 3497 1497 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 NE 1 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NE 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 N 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 W 3 2844 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 W 3 6103 4728 2728 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 67 70 W 6 6417 6085 4085 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 69 72 W 7 6592 6327 4327 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 68 71 W 8 6499 6245 4245 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 68 70 W 9 6417 6085 4085 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 67 W 9 6103 4728 2728 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 3869 2847 847 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 N 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 N 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 9 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 65 67 E 9 6103 4728 2728 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 66 68 E 9 6254 5318 3318 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 66 68 E 8 6254 5318 3318 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 65 66 E 8 5811 4044 2044 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 64 64 E 8 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 61 61 E 9 3687 2687 687 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 54 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 64 E 8 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 66 68 E 8 6254 5318 3318 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 67 69 E 8 6335 5770 3770 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 67 69 E 8 6335 5770 3770 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 66 67 E 8 6103 4728 2728 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 64 64 E 8 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 62 62 E 9 3869 2847 847 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 58 58 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 E 9 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 E 7 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 E 8 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 SE 6 3505 2687 687 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 SE 6 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 63 65 SE 6 5352 3863 1863 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 64 65 SE 5 5352 3863 1863 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 64 65 SE 5 5352 3863 1863 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 64 64 SE 5 4776 3683 1683 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 61 61 SE 6 3687 2687 687 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 56 56 SE 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 SE 6 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 E 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 E 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 2 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NE 3 2687 2687 687 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst