Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 3 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NW 1 3437 3087 1087 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 55 56 W 2 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 58 61 SW 3 4811 4049 2049 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 62 67 SW 6 8260 5798 3798 White 19
11 AM Sat 64 70 SW 8 8554 8230 6230 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 65 72 SW 9 9006 8425 6425 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 65 72 SW 10 9006 8425 6425 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 66 71 SW 12 8758 8343 6343 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 65 69 SW 12 8440 7721 5721 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 64 66 SW 12 7837 5484 3484 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 62 63 SW 12 5515 4716 2716 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 59 59 SW 12 4385 3830 1830 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 9 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 3578 3187 1187 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 51 51 SW 6 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 5 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 3 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 3 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 3 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 7 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 SW 8 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 49 50 SW 9 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 50 51 SW 10 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 49 50 SW 12 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 50 51 W 12 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 49 50 W 12 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 49 50 W 13 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 48 48 SW 12 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 W 12 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 10 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 W 7 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 8 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 W 10 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 50 W 10 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 50 54 W 12 3705 3295 1295 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 52 56 W 13 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 53 57 W 14 3895 3704 1704 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 54 58 W 15 4056 3767 1767 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 53 56 W 14 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 54 56 W 13 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 53 54 W 12 3705 3295 1295 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 52 52 W 10 3437 3087 1087 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 9 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 48 48 W 6 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 3 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NW 2 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NW 1 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 1 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 1 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 1 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 1 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 2 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 2 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 2 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 52 53 W 3 3578 3187 1187 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 56 59 W 3 4385 3830 1830 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 60 65 W 3 7065 5107 3107 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 63 69 SW 7 8440 7721 5721 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 66 73 SW 7 9253 8532 6532 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 68 75 SW 7 9747 8957 6957 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 69 76 SW 9 10189 9202 7202 White 28
3 PM Tue 69 74 SW 9 9498 8711 6711 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 68 71 SW 9 8758 8343 6343 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 66 68 W 10 8358 6961 4961 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 5515 4716 2716 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 4721 3894 1894 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 3 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 3 3578 3187 1187 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 3 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 49 49 NW 2 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NW 2 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NW 2 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 N 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 9 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 9 3895 3704 1704 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 63 64 NW 2 5814 4802 2802 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 68 71 NW 2 8758 8343 6343 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 72 77 NW 2 10396 9445 7445 White 29
11 AM Wed 74 78 SW 7 10603 9688 7688 White 30
12 Noon Wed 75 80 SW 7 11017 11017 9017 White 32
1 PM Wed 75 80 SW 7 11017 11017 9017 White 32
2 PM Wed 75 80 SW 8 11017 11017 9017 White 32
3 PM Wed 74 78 SW 8 10603 9688 7688 White 30
4 PM Wed 73 75 SW 8 9747 8957 6957 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 72 73 SW 10 9253 8532 6532 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 8440 7721 5721 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 66 66 SW 10 7837 5484 3484 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 3 5133 4353 2353 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 3 4385 3830 1830 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 3832 3575 1575 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 2 3705 3295 1295 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 2 3437 3087 1087 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 2 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 6 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 N 9 2756 2493 493 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 9 3437 3087 1087 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 9 4056 3767 1767 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 64 65 NW 5 7065 5107 3107 Blue 17
9 AM Thu 68 71 NW 5 8758 8343 6343 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 71 76 NW 5 10189 9202 7202 White 28
11 AM Thu 73 78 SE 6 10603 9688 7688 White 30
12 Noon Thu 75 81 SE 6 11223 11223 9223 White 33
1 PM Thu 76 82 SE 6 11428 11428 9428 White 34
2 PM Thu 76 82 SW 10 11428 11428 9428 White 34
3 PM Thu 75 79 SW 10 10810 10051 8051 White 31
4 PM Thu 72 75 SW 10 9747 8957 6957 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 12 8554 8230 6230 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 12 7065 5107 3107 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 62 62 SW 12 5133 4353 2353 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 3 4056 3767 1767 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 3 3769 3435 1435 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 3578 3187 1187 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 2 3437 3087 1087 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 N 2 3297 2761 761 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 50 50 N 2 3187 2493 493 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 3087 2493 493 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 2493 2493 493 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst