Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 44 39 E 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 38 S 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 38 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 39 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 50 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 57 SW 3 1983 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 61 SW 5 3272 2337 487 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 66 64 SW 5 3326 3271 1421 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 68 65 SW 6 3344 3289 1439 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 67 63 SW 7 3308 3019 1169 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 67 62 SW 7 3290 2687 837 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 64 59 SW 7 2699 1850 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 59 54 SW 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 48 SW 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 44 SW 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 42 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 42 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 42 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 41 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 41 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 40 S 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 39 S 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 38 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 37 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 36 SE 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 35 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 35 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 37 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 42 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 47 SW 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 52 W 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 58 NW 2 2345 1850 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 64 61 NW 2 3272 2337 487 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 66 62 N 2 3290 2687 837 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 65 60 N 3 3034 1979 129 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 63 58 N 3 2345 1850 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 58 53 NE 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 47 NE 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 42 E 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 39 E 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 38 E 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 38 E 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 36 NE 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 34 N 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 33 N 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 33 N 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 35 N 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 36 N 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 36 N 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 37 N 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 37 N 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 39 NE 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 43 SE 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 47 S 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 52 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 56 E 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 59 E 3 2699 1850 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 66 62 E 5 3290 2687 837 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 67 62 SE 7 3290 2687 837 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 67 62 S 8 3290 2687 837 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 62 57 SE 7 1983 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 49 E 6 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 42 NE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 38 E 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 35 E 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 35 SE 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 35 SE 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 36 S 1 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 36 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 36 S 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 35 SE 7 568 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 33 E 9 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 33 E 9 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 34 E 9 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 37 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 42 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 50 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 57 NW 2 1983 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 61 NW 2 3272 2337 487 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 68 66 NW 2 3362 3307 1457 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 70 67 NE 6 3482 3325 1475 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 70 66 NE 6 3362 3307 1457 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 70 65 NE 6 3344 3289 1439 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 69 64 N 14 3326 3271 1421 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 64 59 N 14 2699 1850 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 58 53 N 14 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 48 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 43 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 40 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 38 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 37 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 36 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 35 W 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 35 W 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 34 W 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 34 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 34 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 35 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 38 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 43 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 51 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 58 W 3 2345 1850 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 66 63 W 3 3308 3019 1169 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 69 66 W 3 3362 3307 1457 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 72 69 N 3 3774 3361 1511 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 74 70 N 3 3921 3473 1623 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 73 68 N 3 3628 3343 1493 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 71 66 NE 5 3362 3307 1457 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 65 60 NE 5 3034 1979 129 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 58 53 NE 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 47 E 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 45 E 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 44 E 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 44 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 41 SW 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 39 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 38 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 37 W 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 37 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 36 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 36 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 44 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 51 S 2 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 59 NW 3 2699 1850 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 68 64 NW 3 3326 3271 1421 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 71 67 NW 3 3482 3325 1475 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 73 69 W 5 3774 3361 1511 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 73 69 W 5 3774 3361 1511 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 73 68 W 5 3628 3343 1493 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 70 65 S 8 3344 3289 1439 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 65 60 S 8 3034 1979 129 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 59 54 S 8 568 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 49 S 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 46 S 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 45 S 5 568 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 44 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 42 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 41 SE 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 40 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 40 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 40 S 3 568 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst