Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 47 S 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 S 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 47 S 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 49 SW 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 54 SW 2 2389 1850 0 White 2
10 AM Sun 63 59 SW 2 3487 3205 1355 White 7
11 AM Sun 68 70 W 3 5581 5187 3337 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 73 76 W 3 6254 5992 4142 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 77 80 W 5 6538 6314 4464 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 80 82 SW 7 6680 6456 4606 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 79 80 SW 9 6538 6314 4464 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 78 77 SW 9 6325 6102 4252 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 75 72 S 13 5869 5428 3578 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 71 66 SW 13 5016 4752 2902 White 14
7 PM Sun 67 62 S 12 4138 4138 2288 White 10
8 PM Sun 64 59 S 8 3487 3205 1355 White 7
9 PM Sun 61 56 S 7 2834 2044 194 White 4
10 PM Sun 59 54 S 5 2389 1850 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 57 52 SW 2 1456 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 51 SW 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 51 W 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 50 NW 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 49 NW 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 48 NW 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 48 N 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 49 N 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 NE 1 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 62 57 N 0 3052 2419 569 White 5
9 AM Mon 67 63 W 1 4355 4355 2505 White 11
10 AM Mon 73 70 W 2 5581 5187 3337 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 79 81 W 3 6609 6385 4535 Blue 29
12 Noon Mon 83 86 W 5 7597 6740 4890 Blue 34
1 PM Mon 86 89 SW 6 8418 7543 5693 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 86 89 SW 10 8418 7543 5693 Blue 37
3 PM Mon 86 87 SW 12 7872 6991 5141 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 83 82 SW 12 6680 6456 4606 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 79 76 SW 13 6254 5992 4142 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 74 70 SW 12 5581 5187 3337 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 70 65 SW 12 4799 4655 2805 White 13
8 PM Mon 66 61 S 8 3922 3922 2072 White 9
9 PM Mon 63 58 SW 6 3270 2809 959 White 6
10 PM Mon 61 56 SW 5 2834 2044 194 White 4
11 PM Mon 59 54 W 2 2389 1850 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 W 1 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 58 53 NW 1 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 58 53 N 1 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 56 51 NW 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 51 W 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 50 W 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 51 W 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 53 W 1 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 63 59 SW 1 3487 3205 1355 White 7
9 AM Tue 69 66 W 1 5016 4752 2902 White 14
10 AM Tue 76 74 W 2 6112 5706 3856 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 83 85 W 5 7320 6669 4819 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 87 90 SW 6 8647 7816 5966 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 90 93 SW 7 9321 8600 6750 Blue 41
2 PM Tue 89 91 SW 13 8849 8087 6237 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 89 90 SW 14 8647 7816 5966 Blue 38
4 PM Tue 86 85 SW 14 7320 6669 4819 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 83 80 SW 14 6538 6314 4464 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 80 75 S 13 6183 5849 3999 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 76 71 S 12 5725 5308 3458 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 72 67 S 9 5201 4847 2997 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 69 64 S 7 4572 4559 2709 White 12
10 PM Tue 66 61 S 6 3922 3922 2072 White 9
11 PM Tue 64 59 S 5 3487 3205 1355 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 S 3 3052 2419 569 White 5
1 AM Wed 60 55 S 5 2615 1850 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 59 54 S 5 2389 1850 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 57 52 S 5 1456 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 51 S 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 50 S 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 51 S 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 53 S 2 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 61 56 SW 7 2834 2044 194 White 4
9 AM Wed 66 61 SW 7 3922 3922 2072 White 9
10 AM Wed 71 67 SW 7 5201 4847 2997 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 76 78 SW 9 6396 6173 4323 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 79 82 SW 9 6680 6456 4606 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 81 84 SW 9 7041 6598 4748 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 82 84 SW 13 7041 6598 4748 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 82 83 SW 13 6760 6527 4677 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 80 79 SW 13 6467 6243 4393 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 78 75 S 14 6183 5849 3999 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 74 70 S 14 5581 5187 3337 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 70 65 S 14 4799 4655 2805 White 13
8 PM Wed 66 61 S 12 3922 3922 2072 White 9
9 PM Wed 62 57 S 12 3052 2419 569 White 5
10 PM Wed 58 53 S 12 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 56 51 SW 7 633 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 49 SW 7 633 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 49 SW 7 633 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 49 SW 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 49 SW 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 SW 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 SW 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 49 SW 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 50 SW 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 51 SW 3 633 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 54 SW 3 2389 1850 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 63 58 SW 3 3270 2809 959 White 6
11 AM Thu 67 68 SW 8 5322 4946 3096 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 71 73 SW 8 6013 5562 3712 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 74 77 SW 8 6325 6102 4252 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 75 77 S 13 6325 6102 4252 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 75 75 S 13 6183 5849 3999 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 74 73 S 13 6013 5562 3712 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 72 69 S 15 5443 5067 3217 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 68 63 S 15 4355 4355 2505 White 11
7 PM Thu 65 60 S 15 3705 3595 1745 White 8
8 PM Thu 61 56 S 10 2834 2044 194 White 4
9 PM Thu 58 53 S 10 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 56 51 S 10 633 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 49 S 8 633 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 S 8 633 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 48 S 8 633 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 S 6 633 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 47 S 6 633 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 S 6 633 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 46 S 5 633 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 S 5 633 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 47 S 5 633 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 50 S 5 633 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 53 S 5 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 63 59 S 5 3487 3205 1355 White 7
11 AM Fri 67 69 SW 6 5443 5067 3217 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 71 74 SW 6 6112 5706 3856 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 74 77 SW 6 6325 6102 4252 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 76 78 SW 8 6396 6173 4323 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 78 79 SW 8 6467 6243 4393 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 78 77 SW 8 6325 6102 4252 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 77 74 SW 10 6112 5706 3856 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 75 70 SW 10 5581 5187 3337 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 72 67 SW 10 5201 4847 2997 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 68 63 SW 7 4355 4355 2505 White 11
9 PM Fri 64 59 SW 7 3487 3205 1355 White 7
10 PM Fri 61 56 SW 7 2834 2044 194 White 4
11 PM Fri 58 53 S 2 2049 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 57 52 S 2 1456 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 51 S 2 633 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 51 S 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 50 S 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 49 S 1 633 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst