Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 64 59 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 61 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 64 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 70 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 79 SW 2 1623 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 87 87 SW 5 2576 2061 211 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 92 94 SW 6 4870 3983 2133 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 96 99 SW 7 7061 5414 3564 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 98 101 SW 8 7525 6588 4738 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 100 103 SW 10 7986 7253 5403 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 99 101 SW 12 7525 6588 4738 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 99 99 SW 13 7061 5414 3564 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 97 95 SW 14 5138 4271 2421 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 92 88 SW 13 2757 2229 379 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 86 81 SW 12 1715 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 80 75 S 7 1439 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 71 S 6 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 67 S 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 65 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 63 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 61 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 60 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 58 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 56 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 56 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 57 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 61 NW 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 67 N 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 74 NW 3 1393 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 82 SW 5 1761 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 88 90 SW 7 3713 2571 721 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 91 94 SW 9 4870 3983 2133 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 93 96 SW 10 5487 4557 2707 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 92 95 SW 12 5138 4271 2421 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 92 93 SW 13 4584 3683 1833 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 91 90 SW 13 3713 2571 721 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 88 85 SW 13 2233 1850 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 84 80 SW 12 1669 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 80 75 S 9 1439 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 75 70 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 66 S 6 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 63 SW 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 60 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 58 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 57 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 56 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 54 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 NW 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 55 NW 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 58 N 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 62 N 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 68 NW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 75 W 5 1439 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 83 84 SW 6 2063 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 87 89 SW 7 3100 2397 547 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 89 91 SW 8 4005 2751 901 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 89 91 S 9 4005 2751 901 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 90 91 S 10 4005 2751 901 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 89 88 S 12 2757 2229 379 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 86 83 S 13 1894 1850 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 83 79 S 12 1623 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 74 S 10 1393 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 69 S 8 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 65 S 6 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 62 S 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 59 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 57 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 56 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 54 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 53 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 52 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 52 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 53 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 55 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 59 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 66 W 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 72 W 2 1301 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 82 SW 5 1761 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 85 88 SW 5 2757 2229 379 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 87 91 SW 5 4005 2751 901 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 89 92 SW 8 4295 3071 1221 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 88 90 SW 8 3713 2571 721 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 88 88 SW 8 2757 2229 379 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 85 83 S 13 1894 1850 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 82 78 S 13 1577 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 77 72 S 13 1301 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 68 S 8 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 65 S 8 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 62 S 8 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 59 S 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 58 S 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 57 S 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 55 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 53 S 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 52 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 53 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 59 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 64 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 71 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 79 W 5 1623 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 82 85 W 5 2233 1850 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 86 89 W 5 3100 2397 547 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 88 90 W 7 3713 2571 721 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 88 89 W 7 3100 2397 547 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 88 87 W 7 2576 2061 211 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 86 83 SW 9 1894 1850 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 83 79 SW 9 1623 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 79 74 SW 9 1393 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 75 70 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 66 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 63 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 60 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 57 SW 3 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 55 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 54 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 53 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 53 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 54 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 57 W 1 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 62 N 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 69 N 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 78 N 2 1577 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 84 85 NW 5 2233 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 89 91 NW 5 4005 2751 901 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 93 95 NW 5 5138 4271 2421 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 95 97 SW 6 6094 4842 2992 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 94 94 SW 6 4870 3983 2133 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 94 93 SW 6 4584 3683 1833 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 91 88 SW 9 2757 2229 379 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 87 83 SW 9 1894 1850 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 83 78 SW 9 1577 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 78 73 S 7 1347 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 69 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 66 S 7 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 63 SW 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 61 SW 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 60 SW 5 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 59 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 58 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 58 SW 2 1266 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst