Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 44 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 47 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 53 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 61 NE 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 69 SW 2 1498 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 74 SW 2 1944 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 81 77 W 3 2276 1942 92 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 81 77 SW 6 2276 1942 92 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 81 76 SW 7 2165 1850 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 77 72 SW 8 1747 1850 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 72 67 SW 8 1327 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 61 SW 6 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 55 SW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 50 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 47 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 46 SW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 46 NW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 N 0 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 44 NW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 42 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 NE 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 57 W 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 65 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 70 SW 3 1584 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 78 74 SW 5 1944 1850 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 78 74 SW 6 1944 1850 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 78 73 SW 7 1833 1850 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 76 71 SW 8 1669 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 67 SW 8 1327 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 62 SW 7 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 57 S 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 52 S 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 50 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 W 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 49 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 48 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 NW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 NW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 NW 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 43 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 41 N 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 40 N 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 41 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 52 W 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 61 W 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 66 W 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 71 W 3 1669 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 76 73 W 5 1833 1850 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 77 73 SW 6 1833 1850 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 78 73 SW 7 1833 1850 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 74 69 SW 7 1498 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 67 62 SW 6 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 54 SW 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 47 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 43 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 42 NW 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 41 N 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 42 N 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 NW 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 N 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 42 N 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 44 N 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 48 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 54 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 62 SW 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 70 W 3 1584 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 76 W 3 2165 1850 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 81 79 W 3 2878 2163 313 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 84 82 NE 7 4725 2857 1007 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 84 81 NE 7 4257 2474 624 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 85 81 NE 7 4257 2474 624 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 82 77 E 7 2276 1942 92 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 75 70 E 7 1584 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 61 E 7 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 54 SW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 SW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 SW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 NW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 NW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 46 NW 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 42 NE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 42 NE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 44 NE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 49 E 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 56 E 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 66 E 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 75 E 5 2054 1850 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 83 81 E 5 4257 2474 624 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 85 83 E 5 5408 3383 1533 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 86 83 W 2 5408 3383 1533 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 86 83 W 2 5408 3383 1533 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 86 82 W 2 4725 2857 1007 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 83 78 SE 3 2481 2053 203 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 76 71 SE 3 1669 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 62 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 55 E 6 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 52 E 6 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 E 6 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 51 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 50 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 49 N 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 47 S 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 S 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 43 S 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 42 SE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 SE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 SE 2 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 47 SE 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 53 SE 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 62 SE 1 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 70 SW 2 1584 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 76 SW 2 2165 1850 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 82 80 SW 2 3412 2273 423 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 84 81 W 5 4257 2474 624 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 84 80 W 5 3412 2273 423 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 84 79 W 5 2878 2163 313 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 81 76 SW 8 2165 1850 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 74 69 SW 8 1498 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 62 SW 8 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 57 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 54 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 53 SE 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 53 S 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 52 S 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 51 S 3 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 49 S 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 48 S 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 S 5 1306 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst