Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 60 N 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 N 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 N 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 69 N 1 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 75 NW 1 2193 1879 29 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 83 82 NW 1 3354 3026 1176 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 88 89 W 6 4435 4060 2210 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 93 96 W 6 6867 5559 3709 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 96 99 NW 6 8350 6821 4971 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 98 100 W 8 8753 7098 5248 Blue 31
3 PM Sun 98 99 W 8 8350 6821 4971 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 98 97 W 9 7146 5789 3939 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 96 93 NW 9 5572 5050 3200 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 92 88 W 10 4324 3759 1909 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 88 83 W 10 3466 3127 1277 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 83 78 W 7 2903 2187 337 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 80 75 W 5 2193 1879 29 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 77 72 W 3 1880 1850 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 75 70 W 1 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 74 69 W 1 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 68 SW 1 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 67 S 1 1556 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 65 S 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 64 S 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 63 SW 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 64 W 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 68 SW 1 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 74 SW 1 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 84 81 W 1 3243 2889 1039 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 92 91 W 2 5369 4315 2465 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 98 99 W 5 8350 6821 4971 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 102 105 W 5 10203 9271 7421 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 105 108 W 6 11590 10131 8281 White 39
2 PM Mon 105 107 SW 10 10721 9860 8010 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 105 106 SW 12 10465 9440 7590 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 103 102 SW 12 9313 8211 6361 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 100 97 SW 12 7146 5789 3939 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 96 92 SW 10 5470 4425 2575 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 91 86 SW 10 4083 3459 1609 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 87 82 SW 8 3354 3026 1176 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 84 79 SW 7 3031 2389 539 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 81 76 SW 6 2393 1973 123 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 79 74 SW 2 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 77 72 SW 2 1880 1850 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 76 71 SW 2 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 75 70 SW 2 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 73 68 SW 2 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 67 W 2 1556 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 67 W 1 1556 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 68 W 1 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 71 NW 0 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 81 77 SW 1 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 87 85 W 2 3780 3348 1498 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 94 93 W 3 5572 5050 3200 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 100 101 W 6 9121 7547 5697 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 104 106 W 6 10465 9440 7590 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 107 110 W 6 12000 10647 8797 White 41
2 PM Tue 109 111 SW 10 12202 11457 9607 White 42
3 PM Tue 108 109 S 13 11795 10391 8541 White 40
4 PM Tue 108 107 S 14 10721 9860 8010 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 105 102 SW 10 9313 8211 6361 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 102 98 SW 10 7677 6125 4275 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 98 93 SW 10 5572 5050 3200 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 94 89 S 9 4435 4060 2210 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 90 85 S 7 3780 3348 1498 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 86 81 S 5 3243 2889 1039 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 83 78 S 3 2903 2187 337 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 82 77 S 2 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 82 77 SW 2 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 81 76 SW 2 2393 1973 123 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 79 74 SW 2 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 76 71 SW 2 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 75 70 SW 2 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 76 71 SW 2 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 79 74 SW 2 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 84 80 SW 3 3132 2568 718 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 89 86 SW 3 4083 3459 1609 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 95 94 SW 3 5827 5357 3507 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 100 101 W 7 9121 7547 5697 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 104 106 W 7 10465 9440 7590 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 108 111 W 7 12202 11457 9607 White 42
2 PM Wed 110 112 SW 13 12404 12404 10554 White 43
3 PM Wed 110 111 SW 13 12202 11457 9607 White 42
4 PM Wed 109 108 SW 13 11590 10131 8281 White 39
5 PM Wed 106 103 SW 12 9520 8668 6818 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 101 97 SW 12 7146 5789 3939 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 95 90 SW 12 5105 4204 2354 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 90 85 S 9 3780 3348 1498 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 86 81 S 9 3243 2889 1039 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 83 78 S 9 2903 2187 337 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 81 76 S 3 2393 1973 123 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 80 75 S 3 2193 1879 29 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 79 74 S 3 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 78 73 S 5 1974 1850 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 76 71 S 5 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 75 70 S 5 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 74 69 W 1 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 70 W 1 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 77 72 W 1 1880 1850 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 81 77 S 2 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 86 83 S 2 3466 3127 1277 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 92 91 S 2 5369 4315 2465 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 96 97 W 7 7146 5789 3939 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 99 101 W 7 9121 7547 5697 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 101 104 W 7 9940 9034 7184 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 102 104 SW 15 9940 9034 7184 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 102 103 SW 15 9520 8668 6818 Blue 34
4 PM Thu 101 100 SW 15 8753 7098 5248 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 99 96 SW 14 6867 5559 3709 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 95 91 SW 14 5369 4315 2465 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 90 85 SW 14 3780 3348 1498 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 86 81 S 10 3243 2889 1039 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 82 77 S 10 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 79 74 S 10 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 77 72 SW 5 1880 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 75 70 SW 5 1743 1850 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 74 69 SW 5 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 68 SW 3 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 66 SW 3 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 65 SW 3 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 64 NW 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 65 NW 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 68 NW 2 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 74 N 1 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 83 80 N 1 3132 2568 718 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 90 89 N 1 4435 4060 2210 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 95 95 SW 7 6180 5458 3608 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 98 99 SW 7 8350 6821 4971 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 100 102 SW 7 9313 8211 6361 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 100 101 S 17 9121 7547 5697 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 99 99 S 17 8350 6821 4971 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 97 96 S 17 6867 5559 3709 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 94 91 SW 13 5369 4315 2465 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 90 86 SW 13 4083 3459 1609 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 86 81 SW 13 3243 2889 1039 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 82 77 S 10 2574 2040 190 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 79 74 S 10 2041 1850 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 76 71 S 10 1799 1850 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 74 69 SW 2 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 67 SW 2 1556 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 66 SW 2 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 66 W 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 65 W 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 64 W 1 1526 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst