Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 42 W 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 NW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 42 NW 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 NW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 N 0 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 52 W 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 59 W 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 66 W 2 1697 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 70 W 2 2455 1993 143 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 76 73 NW 2 3071 2449 599 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 77 73 N 2 3071 2449 599 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 78 73 N 2 3071 2449 599 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 77 72 NE 6 2855 2240 390 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 71 66 NE 3 1697 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 60 E 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 57 E 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 54 NE 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 52 NE 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 50 NW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 W 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 W 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 N 0 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 SE 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 E 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 42 E 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 52 E 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 59 W 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 65 W 3 1541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 69 SW 5 2244 1850 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 75 72 SW 7 2855 2240 390 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 76 72 SW 8 2855 2240 390 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 77 72 SW 8 2855 2240 390 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 76 71 SW 9 2665 2103 253 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 70 65 SW 7 1541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 59 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 55 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 S 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 S 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 S 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 40 S 7 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 39 SW 7 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 SW 7 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 45 W 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 48 SW 12 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 51 SW 13 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 53 SW 12 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 55 W 14 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 54 W 15 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 55 W 15 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 54 W 10 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 50 SW 10 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 46 SW 9 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 43 SW 9 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 41 SW 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 39 SW 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 38 SW 7 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 37 SW 7 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 35 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 35 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 34 S 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 33 S 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 33 SW 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 32 SW 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 33 SW 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 33 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 34 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 40 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 44 NW 9 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 48 NW 9 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 51 NW 9 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 53 NW 15 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 53 NW 15 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 52 NW 15 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 51 NW 10 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 47 NW 10 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 43 NW 10 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 40 S 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 38 S 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 36 S 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 35 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 33 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 32 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 31 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 31 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 31 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 30 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 29 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 30 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 30 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 32 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 40 SE 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 45 SW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 50 SW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 55 SW 1 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 56 W 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 58 W 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 57 W 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 56 W 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 51 W 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 W 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 43 N 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 41 N 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 39 N 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 37 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 36 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 35 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 34 E 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 33 E 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 33 E 5 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 32 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 31 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 32 E 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 32 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 34 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 41 S 2 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 48 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 53 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 58 S 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 60 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 62 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 61 SW 6 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 60 W 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 55 W 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 50 W 8 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 47 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 45 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 43 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 41 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 40 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 39 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 38 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 37 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 37 SE 3 1368 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst