Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 51 46 SW 2 4 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 WSW 2 4 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 36 WNW 1 3 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 35 W 1 3 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 34 WSW 1 3 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 33 WSW 1 3 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 34 SW 1 3 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 36 SW 2 4 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 38 SW 2 4 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 44 SW 2 4 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 52 WSW 2 4 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 58 W 3 3 2610 2047 197 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 61 61 W 4 4 3205 2605 755 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 63 62 WNW 4 5 3403 2803 953 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 65 63 WNW 5 6 3600 3000 1150 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 65 62 WNW 6 7 3403 2803 953 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 65 60 WNW 7 8 3007 2414 564 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 66 61 WNW 7 8 3205 2605 755 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 63 58 WSW 6 8 2610 2047 197 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 61 56 SW 4 6 2233 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 53 S 2 6 1678 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 51 SE 4 8 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 49 ESE 5 11 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 42 ENE 6 14 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 38 ENE 7 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 35 ENE 7 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 34 ENE 7 16 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 34 ENE 7 16 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 34 ENE 8 17 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 35 ENE 8 16 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 36 ENE 8 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 39 ENE 8 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 44 E 9 14 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 50 E 10 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 55 E 11 13 2048 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 58 E 10 11 2610 2047 197 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 60 59 E 9 11 2809 2230 380 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 61 59 E 8 9 2809 2230 380 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 62 59 E 8 9 2809 2230 380 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 62 57 E 8 9 2417 1863 13 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 57 E 8 9 2417 1863 13 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 56 E 8 12 2233 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 54 ENE 8 15 1863 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 53 ENE 8 17 1678 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 ENE 7 16 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 ENE 7 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 48 ENE 6 14 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 38 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 33 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 32 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 32 ENE 6 13 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 31 ENE 6 14 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 33 ENE 6 14 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 35 ENE 7 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 37 ENE 7 15 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 45 E 6 12 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 53 E 6 9 1678 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 5 3007 2414 564 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 63 63 ENE 4 4 3600 3000 1150 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 65 64 ENE 3 3 3797 3197 1347 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 67 65 ENE 2 2 3994 3393 1543 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 67 64 E 2 2 3797 3197 1347 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 66 61 ESE 2 3 3205 2605 755 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 66 61 SE 2 3 3205 2605 755 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 63 58 ESE 3 5 2610 2047 197 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 61 56 ESE 3 7 2233 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 53 E 4 8 1678 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 52 E 4 8 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 50 ENE 4 8 1322 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 48 ENE 4 8 1322 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst