Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 41 36 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 36 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 37 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 NW 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 56 W 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 64 W 1 1282 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 71 W 2 3092 2107 257 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 76 74 NW 2 4753 3048 1198 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 78 75 NW 2 5423 3912 2062 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 78 74 NW 5 4753 3048 1198 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 78 73 NW 6 4508 2512 662 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 73 68 NW 6 2108 1850 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 66 61 NW 5 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 53 NW 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 47 NW 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 43 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 41 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 40 SE 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 38 SE 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 37 SE 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 36 SE 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 36 SE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 36 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 37 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 36 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 37 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 40 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 46 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 55 E 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 63 SW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 74 71 W 1 3092 2107 257 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 78 75 W 2 5423 3912 2062 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 80 76 W 3 5950 4485 2635 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 79 75 W 5 5423 3912 2062 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 78 73 W 5 4508 2512 662 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 74 69 SW 5 2264 1850 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 67 62 SW 5 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 55 SW 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 50 S 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 49 N 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 49 N 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 50 N 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 49 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 NW 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 NW 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 45 NW 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 NW 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 SE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 S 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 46 E 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 49 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 55 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 64 N 0 1282 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 71 W 1 3092 2107 257 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 80 77 W 2 6014 4728 2878 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 84 81 N 1 6303 6069 4219 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 86 83 NW 1 6531 6201 4351 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 89 85 NW 2 7424 6378 4528 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 88 83 N 2 6531 6201 4351 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 85 80 NE 5 6214 6005 4155 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 76 71 NE 1 3092 2107 257 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 65 60 NW 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 51 W 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 47 W 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 W 5 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 48 W 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 S 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 44 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 NW 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 42 W 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 NW 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 42 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 43 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 46 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 52 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 62 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 72 SW 1 3975 2258 408 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 81 79 SW 1 6142 5941 4091 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 86 84 SW 1 6815 6289 4439 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 89 86 N 2 8010 6509 4659 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 90 86 N 2 8010 6509 4659 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 89 84 N 2 6815 6289 4439 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 85 80 E 2 6214 6005 4155 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 78 73 E 2 4508 2512 662 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 69 64 E 2 1282 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 57 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 52 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 49 NE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 N 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 42 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 47 S 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 55 S 0 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 65 S 0 1566 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 74 W 2 4753 3048 1198 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 83 81 W 2 6303 6069 4219 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 88 86 W 2 8010 6509 4659 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 90 87 W 2 8300 6711 4861 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 92 88 W 2 8580 7313 5463 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 91 86 W 2 8010 6509 4659 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 87 82 SW 2 6394 6133 4283 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 79 74 SW 2 4753 3048 1198 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 69 64 SW 2 1282 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 55 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 52 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 51 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 45 E 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 44 E 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 47 E 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 54 E 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 64 E 3 1282 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 72 SW 2 3975 2258 408 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 81 78 SW 2 6078 5300 3450 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 84 81 SW 2 6303 6069 4219 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 86 83 SW 6 6531 6201 4351 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 87 83 SW 6 6531 6201 4351 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 86 81 SW 6 6303 6069 4219 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 82 77 SW 8 6014 4728 2878 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 75 70 SW 8 2520 2014 164 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 67 62 SW 8 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 55 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 52 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 SE 3 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 50 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 50 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 49 S 2 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 SE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 SE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 45 SE 1 1234 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst