Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 52 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 54 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 57 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 64 SW 2 1525 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 71 SW 3 2197 1850 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 78 78 SW 5 3621 2845 995 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 82 83 SW 6 4174 3819 1969 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 84 85 SW 6 4541 4038 2188 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 86 87 SW 8 4985 4294 2444 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 85 84 SW 9 4314 3922 2072 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 85 83 SW 9 4174 3819 1969 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 83 79 SW 12 3724 3116 1266 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 78 73 S 12 2591 1990 140 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 73 68 S 8 1686 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 68 63 S 6 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 60 S 5 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 59 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 58 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 56 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 54 W 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 53 SW 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 52 W 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 51 S 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 51 SE 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 53 E 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 55 E 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 62 E 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 69 S 3 1787 1850 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 76 76 SW 5 3134 2587 737 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 81 82 SW 6 4048 3717 1867 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 84 85 SW 7 4541 4038 2188 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 85 86 SW 8 4767 4164 2314 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 84 83 SW 10 4174 3819 1969 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 84 82 SW 12 4048 3717 1867 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 81 77 SW 13 3514 2716 866 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 76 71 S 12 2197 1850 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 71 66 S 8 1596 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 62 S 6 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 60 S 5 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 58 S 5 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 57 SW 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 56 SW 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 55 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 53 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 52 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 52 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 50 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 50 SW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 52 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 58 SW 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 64 SW 5 1525 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 72 SW 7 2402 1850 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 76 77 SW 7 3514 2716 866 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 78 80 SW 8 3827 3492 1642 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 80 81 SW 9 3929 3615 1765 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 3724 3116 1266 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 79 77 S 14 3514 2716 866 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 76 72 S 14 2402 1850 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 72 67 S 13 1632 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 62 S 10 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 58 S 7 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 55 S 6 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 55 S 5 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 54 S 5 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 52 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 51 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 53 S 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 57 S 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 64 S 1 1525 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 70 W 3 1992 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 76 77 W 3 3514 2716 866 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 80 81 W 3 3929 3615 1765 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 84 85 NW 6 4541 4038 2188 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 86 85 NW 6 4541 4038 2188 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 86 84 NW 6 4314 3922 2072 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 85 81 NW 9 3929 3615 1765 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 81 76 NW 9 3134 2587 737 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 76 71 NW 9 2197 1850 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 71 66 S 6 1596 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 62 S 6 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 59 S 6 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 57 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 55 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 55 W 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 W 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 53 W 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 52 NW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 52 NW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 57 NW 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 64 NW 2 1525 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 74 NW 2 2721 2193 343 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 82 81 W 3 3929 3615 1765 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 87 87 W 3 4985 4294 2444 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 89 89 W 3 7305 4745 2895 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 91 91 NW 6 8790 6037 4187 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 92 91 NW 6 8790 6037 4187 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 91 88 NW 6 6205 4520 2670 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 90 86 S 7 4767 4164 2314 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 85 80 S 7 3827 3492 1642 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 79 74 S 7 2721 2193 343 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 73 68 SE 3 1686 1850 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 69 64 SE 3 1525 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 62 SE 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 60 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 57 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 56 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 56 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 NE 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 58 E 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 59 E 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 61 E 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 65 SW 2 1561 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 72 SW 2 2402 1850 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 83 80 SW 2 3827 3492 1642 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 89 88 N 3 6205 4520 2670 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 92 92 N 3 9186 7180 5330 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 94 94 N 3 10330 8751 6901 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 93 93 SW 7 9851 7624 5774 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 94 93 SW 7 9851 7624 5774 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 92 89 SW 7 7305 4745 2895 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 89 85 SW 12 4541 4038 2188 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 83 78 SW 12 3621 2845 995 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 77 72 SW 12 2402 1850 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 71 66 S 3 1596 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 63 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 61 S 3 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 59 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 59 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 58 S 2 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 58 NW 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 NW 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 NW 1 1493 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst