Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 42 N 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 41 N 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 40 N 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 44 N 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 52 N 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 W 1 1882 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 66 W 3 2917 2602 752 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 72 70 W 3 3178 2971 1121 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 75 73 W 3 4547 3171 1321 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 76 74 W 6 5100 3417 1567 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 76 73 SW 6 4547 3171 1321 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 77 73 W 6 4547 3171 1321 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 76 71 W 9 3450 3022 1172 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 73 68 W 9 3024 2859 1009 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 68 63 W 7 2607 2096 246 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 63 58 SW 3 1697 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 54 S 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 52 S 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 50 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 48 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 43 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 42 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 41 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 51 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 55 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 61 SW 5 2269 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 68 66 W 5 2917 2602 752 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 69 67 W 6 2974 2782 932 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 71 69 W 7 3070 2915 1065 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 70 67 W 8 2974 2782 932 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 71 67 W 10 2974 2782 932 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 71 67 W 12 2974 2782 932 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 68 63 W 10 2607 2096 246 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 64 59 W 8 1882 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 55 W 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 52 W 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 51 SW 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 49 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 44 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 42 W 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 W 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 51 W 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 56 W 5 1597 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 62 W 6 2438 1878 28 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 66 66 W 7 2917 2602 752 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 68 69 W 9 3070 2915 1065 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 3070 2915 1065 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 68 67 W 12 2974 2782 932 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 69 66 W 12 2917 2602 752 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 68 64 W 12 2788 2265 415 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 66 61 W 9 2269 1850 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 62 57 SW 7 1647 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 52 SW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 42 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 39 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 38 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 42 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 50 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 57 SW 3 1647 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 63 NW 6 2607 2096 246 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 69 69 NW 6 3070 2915 1065 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 3450 3022 1172 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 72 72 NW 8 4007 3068 1218 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 73 72 NW 8 4007 3068 1218 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 73 70 NW 8 3178 2971 1121 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 72 68 W 12 3024 2859 1009 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 69 64 W 12 2788 2265 415 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 65 60 W 12 2099 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 60 55 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 46 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 44 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 43 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 42 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 39 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 43 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 SW 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 58 SW 3 1697 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2861 2433 583 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 70 71 SW 6 3450 3022 1172 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 72 73 SW 6 4547 3171 1321 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 74 74 N 10 5100 3417 1567 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 74 73 N 10 4547 3171 1321 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 74 71 N 10 3450 3022 1172 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 74 70 N 13 3178 2971 1121 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 70 65 N 13 2861 2433 583 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 66 61 N 13 2269 1850 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 62 57 N 8 1647 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 53 N 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 51 N 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 49 NW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 47 NW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 NW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 45 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 44 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 43 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 42 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 45 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 54 N 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 61 N 7 2269 1850 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 68 68 N 8 3024 2859 1009 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 73 74 N 8 5100 3417 1567 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 75 76 N 8 5910 4497 2647 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 76 77 E 8 6210 5030 3180 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 77 76 E 8 5910 4497 2647 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 77 75 E 8 5608 3965 2115 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 76 72 N 9 4007 3068 1218 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 73 68 N 9 3024 2859 1009 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 69 64 N 9 2788 2265 415 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 64 59 NW 7 1882 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 55 NW 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 53 NW 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 51 E 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 50 E 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 48 E 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 47 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 46 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 45 SE 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst