Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 49 44 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 49 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 43 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 48 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 47 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 54 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 50 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 57 52 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 58 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 57 52 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 58 53 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 57 52 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 52 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 49 44 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 43 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 43 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 41 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 40 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 40 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 45 40 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 44 39 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 44 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 39 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 38 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 43 38 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 41 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 47 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 51 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 55 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 57 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 59 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 58 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 58 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 57 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 53 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 56 51 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 48 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 51 46 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 45 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 44 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 42 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 41 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 40 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 40 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 44 39 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 39 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 43 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 47 42 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 59 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 67 64 SE 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 71 69 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 74 71 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 74 70 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 71 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 73 68 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 59 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 55 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 57 52 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 49 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 43 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 48 43 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 47 42 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 41 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 41 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 40 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 39 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 43 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 53 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 58 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 62 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 66 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 74 70 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 67 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 66 61 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 57 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 54 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 50 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 53 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 52 47 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 43 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 41 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 46 41 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 46 41 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 40 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 39 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 44 39 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 38 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 37 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 40 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 47 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 55 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 61 59 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 61 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 61 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 62 57 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 58 53 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 55 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 47 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 43 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 40 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 43 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 43 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 42 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 42 37 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 41 36 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 41 36 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 40 35 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 44 39 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 52 48 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 55 52 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 59 56 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 62 60 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 62 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 66 63 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 62 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 59 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 59 54 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 55 50 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 52 47 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 49 44 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 47 42 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 46 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 38 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 41 36 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 41 36 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 40 35 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 39 34 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst