Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 54 49 SE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 48 SE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 48 SE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 51 S 5 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 54 S 7 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 58 SW 6 3009 1850 0 White 1
11 AM Fri 65 63 SW 7 4098 4098 2248 White 6
12 Noon Fri 68 66 SW 7 4762 4762 2912 White 9
1 PM Fri 69 67 SW 7 4976 4936 3086 White 10
2 PM Fri 71 69 SW 9 5408 5158 3308 White 12
3 PM Fri 71 68 SW 9 5192 5027 3177 White 11
4 PM Fri 72 68 SW 9 5192 5027 3177 White 11
5 PM Fri 70 65 SW 12 4530 4530 2680 White 8
6 PM Fri 68 63 SW 12 4098 4098 2248 White 6
7 PM Fri 63 58 SW 13 3009 1850 0 White 1
8 PM Fri 60 55 SW 7 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 53 SW 6 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 52 SW 6 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 51 S 7 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 51 S 6 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 51 S 6 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 50 SE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 50 SE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 49 SE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 49 SE 5 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 48 SE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 48 SE 5 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 52 S 5 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 56 S 6 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 61 SW 5 3666 3666 1816 White 4
11 AM Sat 69 68 SW 3 5192 5027 3177 White 11
12 Noon Sat 71 70 SW 3 5623 5433 3583 White 13
1 PM Sat 74 74 W 3 6474 6366 4516 White 17
2 PM Sat 76 75 W 5 6687 6586 4736 White 18
3 PM Sat 76 74 W 6 6474 6366 4516 White 17
4 PM Sat 77 74 SW 9 6474 6366 4516 White 17
5 PM Sat 75 70 SW 16 5623 5433 3583 White 13
6 PM Sat 72 67 SW 13 4976 4936 3086 White 10
7 PM Sat 66 61 SW 10 3666 3666 1816 White 4
8 PM Sat 63 58 S 5 3009 1850 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 61 56 S 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 54 SE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 53 N 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 52 NE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 53 NE 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 51 N 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 51 N 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 51 N 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 50 N 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 49 N 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 49 N 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 54 SW 0 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 59 SW 0 3229 1850 0 White 2
10 AM Sun 68 66 SW 0 4762 4762 2912 White 9
11 AM Sun 73 73 S 1 6261 6238 4388 White 16
12 Noon Sun 76 77 S 1 7110 7104 5254 White 20
1 PM Sun 79 80 S 1 7743 7397 5547 White 23
2 PM Sun 81 81 NE 3 7953 7628 5778 White 24
3 PM Sun 82 81 NE 3 7953 7628 5778 White 24
4 PM Sun 83 80 NE 3 7743 7397 5547 White 23
5 PM Sun 81 77 N 7 7110 7104 5254 White 20
6 PM Sun 77 72 N 7 6049 6049 4199 White 15
7 PM Sun 70 65 N 7 4530 4530 2680 White 8
8 PM Sun 66 61 E 1 3666 3666 1816 White 4
9 PM Sun 63 58 E 1 3009 1850 0 White 1
10 PM Sun 61 56 E 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 55 SW 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 54 SW 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 54 SW 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 NW 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 52 NW 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 52 NW 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 51 SW 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 50 SW 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 51 SW 1 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 55 NW 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 61 NW 3 3666 3666 1816 White 4
10 AM Mon 70 67 NW 3 4976 4936 3086 White 10
11 AM Mon 76 75 NW 5 6687 6586 4736 White 18
12 Noon Mon 79 79 NW 5 7531 7299 5449 White 22
1 PM Mon 82 82 NW 5 8163 7847 5997 White 25
2 PM Mon 85 85 NE 10 8793 8244 6394 White 28
3 PM Mon 87 85 NE 10 8793 8244 6394 White 28
4 PM Mon 87 84 NE 10 8582 8111 6261 White 27
5 PM Mon 85 81 NE 12 7953 7628 5778 White 24
6 PM Mon 81 76 NE 12 6899 6880 5030 White 19
7 PM Mon 74 69 NE 12 5408 5158 3308 White 12
8 PM Mon 69 64 E 12 4313 4313 2463 White 7
9 PM Mon 66 61 E 12 3666 3666 1816 White 4
10 PM Mon 64 59 E 12 3229 1850 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 63 58 N 6 3009 1850 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 62 57 N 6 2790 1850 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 62 57 N 6 2790 1850 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 61 56 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 55 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 55 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 54 NE 12 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 53 NE 12 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 53 NE 12 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 NE 10 3009 1850 0 White 1
9 AM Tue 68 64 NE 10 4313 4313 2463 White 7
10 AM Tue 74 72 NE 10 6049 6049 4199 White 15
11 AM Tue 79 78 NE 16 7320 7202 5352 White 21
12 Noon Tue 82 82 NE 16 8163 7847 5997 White 25
1 PM Tue 85 86 NE 16 9002 8376 6526 White 29
2 PM Tue 88 88 NE 9 9422 9422 7572 White 31
3 PM Tue 90 89 NE 9 9631 9631 7781 White 32
4 PM Tue 90 87 NE 9 9212 8611 6761 White 30
5 PM Tue 88 84 E 10 8582 8111 6261 White 27
6 PM Tue 83 78 E 10 7320 7202 5352 White 21
7 PM Tue 75 70 E 10 5623 5433 3583 White 13
8 PM Tue 70 65 SW 2 4530 4530 2680 White 8
9 PM Tue 67 62 SW 2 3882 3882 2032 White 5
10 PM Tue 65 60 SW 2 3448 2621 771 White 3
11 PM Tue 64 59 S 6 3229 1850 0 White 2
12 Midnight Wed 63 58 S 6 3009 1850 0 White 1
1 AM Wed 63 58 S 6 3009 1850 0 White 1
2 AM Wed 61 56 S 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 56 S 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 55 S 2 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 54 NE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 53 NE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 53 NE 3 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 58 SE 1 3009 1850 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 69 65 SE 1 4530 4530 2680 White 8
10 AM Wed 74 72 SE 1 6049 6049 4199 White 15
11 AM Wed 80 79 E 5 7531 7299 5449 White 22
12 Noon Wed 83 83 E 5 8373 7979 6129 White 26
1 PM Wed 86 86 E 5 9002 8376 6526 White 29
2 PM Wed 89 89 NE 6 9631 9631 7781 White 32
3 PM Wed 91 90 NE 6 9840 9840 7990 White 33
4 PM Wed 91 88 NE 6 9422 9422 7572 White 31
5 PM Wed 88 84 E 5 8582 8111 6261 White 27
6 PM Wed 84 79 E 5 7531 7299 5449 White 22
7 PM Wed 75 70 E 5 5623 5433 3583 White 13
8 PM Wed 70 65 S 6 4530 4530 2680 White 8
9 PM Wed 67 62 S 6 3882 3882 2032 White 5
10 PM Wed 64 59 S 6 3229 1850 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 63 58 S 2 3009 1850 0 White 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 57 S 2 2790 1850 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 62 57 S 2 2790 1850 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 61 56 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 54 NE 8 1398 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst