Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1004 - 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1004 - 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 49 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 62 NE 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 71 E 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 77 SW 1 2265 2030 180 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 84 84 SW 5 3900 3094 1244 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 87 88 SW 5 4977 4141 2291 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 90 92 SW 5 6132 5186 3336 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 94 95 SW 8 7255 6060 4210 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 94 94 SW 10 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 93 91 SW 13 5681 4952 3102 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 89 85 SW 16 4162 3358 1508 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 83 78 SW 15 2348 2148 298 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 78 73 SW 13 1785 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 75 70 S 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 67 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 65 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 62 SW 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 60 SW 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 58 SW 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 57 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 55 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 54 W 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 53 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 52 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 52 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 64 NE 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 72 E 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 78 W 1 2348 2148 298 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 84 84 W 3 3900 3094 1244 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 87 88 W 5 4977 4141 2291 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 90 91 W 5 5681 4952 3102 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 93 94 W 7 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 93 92 W 7 6132 5186 3336 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 92 90 W 8 5447 4657 2807 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 88 84 SW 9 3900 3094 1244 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 83 78 SW 8 2348 2148 298 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 78 73 SW 7 1785 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 75 70 S 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 72 67 S 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 65 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 63 N 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 61 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 59 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 57 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 56 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 55 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 53 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 53 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 65 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 74 NW 3 2032 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 82 80 N 2 2839 2264 414 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 86 86 NW 0 4422 3620 1770 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 89 90 SW 3 5447 4657 2807 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 93 94 SW 3 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 96 96 SW 10 7428 6559 4709 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 96 95 SW 13 7255 6060 4210 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 95 92 SW 15 6132 5186 3336 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 91 87 S 17 4682 3881 2031 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 86 81 SW 15 3106 2345 495 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 81 76 S 12 2208 1850 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 77 72 S 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 69 SW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 67 SW 6 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 65 W 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 63 NW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 61 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 59 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 58 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 57 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 56 W 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 55 W 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 55 W 0 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 66 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 73 SW 2 1785 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 80 SW 2 2839 2264 414 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 85 85 SW 6 4162 3358 1508 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 88 89 SW 6 5212 4399 2549 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 91 92 SW 6 6132 5186 3336 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 94 94 SW 14 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 95 94 SW 14 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 93 91 SW 14 5681 4952 3102 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 90 86 SW 16 4422 3620 1770 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 84 79 SW 16 2482 2207 357 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 80 75 SW 16 2151 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 76 71 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 69 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 67 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 65 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 63 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 61 SW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 59 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 57 SW 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 56 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 67 NW 5 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 75 NW 5 2151 1850 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 83 81 NW 5 3106 2345 495 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 87 87 W 5 4682 3881 2031 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 90 91 W 5 5681 4952 3102 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 93 94 W 5 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 96 96 SW 14 7428 6559 4709 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 97 96 SW 14 7428 6559 4709 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 95 92 SW 14 6132 5186 3336 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 91 87 SW 14 4682 3881 2031 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 85 80 SW 14 2839 2264 414 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 80 75 SW 14 2151 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 77 72 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 69 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 67 S 8 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 62 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 60 NW 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 59 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 57 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 56 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 55 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 54 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 54 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 66 N 3 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 74 N 3 2032 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 83 81 N 3 3106 2345 495 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 86 86 W 5 4422 3620 1770 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 89 90 W 5 5447 4657 2807 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 93 94 W 5 7081 5651 3801 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 96 97 SW 9 7601 7046 5196 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 97 96 SW 9 7428 6559 4709 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 95 93 SW 9 6638 5419 3569 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 91 87 W 10 4682 3881 2031 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 85 80 W 10 2839 2264 414 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 80 75 W 10 2151 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 76 71 S 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 68 S 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 66 S 7 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 64 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 62 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 59 W 1 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 58 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 N 2 1555 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst