Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 S 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 47 SSE 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 47 S 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 46 WNW 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 W 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 W 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 44 W 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 49 SSW 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 63 WSW 0 0 2551 2520 670 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 72 69 W 2 2 2611 2581 731 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 77 75 WSW 3 4 2713 2646 796 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 86 86 WSW 6 6 4967 4220 2370 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 90 91 WSW 6 8 5847 5280 3430 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 92 94 SW 7 8 7793 5773 3923 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 93 94 SW 10 12 7793 5773 3923 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 92 92 SW 11 12 7116 5445 3595 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 90 88 SW 11 12 5298 4735 2885 Blue 32
5 PM Thu 85 81 SW 8 9 3715 2952 1102 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 79 74 SW 6 8 2691 2631 781 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 70 65 SW 4 8 2571 2541 691 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 59 54 SSW 3 6 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 S 2 6 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 S 2 4 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 S 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 50 SSE 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 50 WSW 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 49 S 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 49 SSE 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 48 SSW 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 48 SSE 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 48 WSW 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 53 WNW 1 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 63 SSW 0 0 2551 2520 670 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 72 69 WSW 2 2 2611 2581 731 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 77 75 WSW 3 3 2713 2646 796 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 87 87 WSW 5 5 5133 4478 2628 Blue 31
12 Noon Fri 90 91 WSW 6 6 5847 5280 3430 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 93 95 SW 7 8 8126 7023 5173 Blue 39
2 PM Fri 93 94 SW 10 12 7793 5773 3923 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 92 92 SW 12 14 7116 5445 3595 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 89 87 SW 11 13 5133 4478 2628 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 85 81 SW 8 10 3715 2952 1102 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 80 75 SW 6 7 2713 2646 796 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 73 68 SW 4 6 2601 2571 721 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 63 58 SSW 3 8 2425 1850 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 61 56 SSW 2 5 1137 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 55 SSW 2 4 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 54 SSW 1 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 53 SSW 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 53 SE 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 53 ESE 1 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 52 E 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 52 NW 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 51 SW 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 50 S 0 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 54 SSE 0 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 63 SW 1 1 2551 2520 670 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 72 69 WSW 2 3 2611 2581 731 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 77 75 WSW 4 4 2713 2646 796 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 86 86 WSW 5 6 4967 4220 2370 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 89 90 WSW 7 8 5629 5116 3266 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 91 92 SW 8 9 7116 5445 3595 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 92 93 SW 11 13 7456 5609 3759 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 91 91 SW 12 14 5847 5280 3430 Blue 35
4 PM Sat 88 86 WSW 12 14 4967 4220 2370 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 84 80 SW 10 11 3451 2858 1008 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 79 74 SW 6 7 2691 2631 781 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 72 67 SW 4 6 2591 2561 711 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 61 56 SSW 2 6 1137 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 54 SSW 2 5 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 52 SSW 1 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 52 S 1 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst