Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 45 S 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 45 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 46 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 48 S 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 49 S 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 49 SW 9 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 51 SW 10 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 51 SW 9 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 51 SW 10 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 52 SW 13 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 50 SW 14 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 51 SW 13 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 50 SW 13 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 48 SW 12 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 47 SW 10 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 SW 9 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 46 SW 8 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 46 W 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 45 W 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 44 SW 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 43 SW 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 42 SW 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 42 S 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 S 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 46 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 49 S 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 52 S 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 56 S 8 3623 1850 0 White 2
12 Noon Mon 58 58 SW 9 4057 4057 2207 White 4
1 PM Mon 59 59 SW 9 4274 4274 2424 White 5
2 PM Mon 60 60 SW 8 4491 4491 2641 White 6
3 PM Mon 61 60 SW 9 4491 4491 2641 White 6
4 PM Mon 60 58 SW 9 4057 4057 2207 White 4
5 PM Mon 61 57 SW 9 3840 2069 219 White 3
6 PM Mon 60 55 SW 9 3405 1850 0 White 2
7 PM Mon 60 55 SW 8 3405 1850 0 White 2
8 PM Mon 58 53 SW 8 1622 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 51 SW 7 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 48 S 6 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 45 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 44 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 44 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 S 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 S 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 42 S 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 42 S 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 42 S 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 45 S 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 50 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 56 SW 3 3623 1850 0 White 2
11 AM Tue 63 64 SW 5 5357 5357 3507 White 10
12 Noon Tue 68 70 SW 5 6395 5933 4083 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 71 73 SW 6 6885 6369 4519 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 74 76 SW 7 7901 6856 5006 White 22
3 PM Tue 73 73 SW 9 6885 6369 4519 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 73 72 SW 12 6722 6206 4356 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 72 69 SW 13 6231 5817 3967 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 69 64 S 12 5357 5357 3507 White 10
7 PM Tue 67 62 S 10 4932 4932 3082 White 8
8 PM Tue 64 59 S 8 4274 4274 2424 White 5
9 PM Tue 62 57 S 7 3840 2069 219 White 3
10 PM Tue 60 55 S 5 3405 1850 0 White 2
11 PM Tue 58 53 S 3 1622 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 52 S 2 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 51 SW 2 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 50 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 49 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 47 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 47 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 48 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 51 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 56 SW 3 3623 1850 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 66 64 SW 3 5357 5357 3507 White 10
10 AM Wed 71 71 SW 3 6558 6048 4198 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 76 77 SW 5 8110 7018 5168 White 23
12 Noon Wed 79 81 SW 5 8945 8945 7095 White 27
1 PM Wed 80 82 SW 5 9151 9151 7301 White 28
2 PM Wed 81 82 S 15 9151 9151 7301 White 28
3 PM Wed 80 80 S 15 8737 8419 6569 White 26
4 PM Wed 79 77 S 15 8110 7018 5168 White 23
5 PM Wed 77 74 S 15 7063 6531 4681 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 74 69 S 15 6231 5817 3967 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 70 65 S 15 5567 5567 3717 White 11
8 PM Wed 66 61 S 9 4716 4716 2866 White 7
9 PM Wed 64 59 S 9 4274 4274 2424 White 5
10 PM Wed 61 56 S 9 3623 1850 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 59 54 SW 5 2074 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 58 53 SW 5 1622 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 51 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 50 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 49 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 47 SW 3 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 47 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 48 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 51 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 55 W 1 3405 1850 0 White 2
9 AM Thu 64 62 W 1 4932 4932 3082 White 8
10 AM Thu 69 68 W 1 6067 5775 3925 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 73 75 W 5 7564 6694 4844 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 77 80 W 5 8737 8419 6569 White 26
1 PM Thu 80 83 W 5 9357 9357 7507 White 29
2 PM Thu 82 84 SW 10 9567 9567 7717 White 30
3 PM Thu 82 83 SW 10 9357 9357 7507 White 29
4 PM Thu 81 80 SW 10 8737 8419 6569 White 26
5 PM Thu 79 76 SW 13 7901 6856 5006 White 22
6 PM Thu 76 71 SW 13 6558 6048 4198 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 72 67 SW 13 5949 5746 3896 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 68 63 S 9 5145 5145 3295 White 9
9 PM Thu 65 60 S 9 4491 4491 2641 White 6
10 PM Thu 63 58 S 9 4057 4057 2207 White 4
11 PM Thu 60 55 S 5 3405 1850 0 White 2
12 Midnight Fri 59 54 S 5 2074 1850 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 58 53 S 5 1622 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 48 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 48 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 52 SW 1 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 56 SW 1 3623 1850 0 White 2
9 AM Fri 65 63 SW 1 5145 5145 3295 White 9
10 AM Fri 71 71 SW 1 6558 6048 4198 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 75 76 W 6 7901 6856 5006 White 22
12 Noon Fri 78 80 W 6 8737 8419 6569 White 26
1 PM Fri 80 83 W 6 9357 9357 7507 White 29
2 PM Fri 81 83 SW 13 9357 9357 7507 White 29
3 PM Fri 80 80 SW 13 8737 8419 6569 White 26
4 PM Fri 79 78 SW 13 8321 7467 5617 White 24
5 PM Fri 77 74 S 14 7063 6531 4681 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 74 69 S 14 6231 5817 3967 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 70 65 S 14 5567 5567 3717 White 11
8 PM Fri 67 62 S 10 4932 4932 3082 White 8
9 PM Fri 64 59 S 10 4274 4274 2424 White 5
10 PM Fri 62 57 S 10 3840 2069 219 White 3
11 PM Fri 61 56 S 5 3623 1850 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 59 54 S 5 2074 1850 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 58 53 S 5 1622 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 52 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 51 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 49 SW 5 1053 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst