Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 33 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 35 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 36 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 39 S 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 42 S 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 44 S 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 45 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 47 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 49 W 17 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 49 W 21 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 49 W 21 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 47 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 46 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 44 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 42 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 41 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 40 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 39 W 22 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 38 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 37 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 37 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 37 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 36 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 35 W 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 35 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 37 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 38 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 41 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 44 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 47 W 10 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 50 W 14 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 52 W 14 9634 8314 114 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 55 W 14 11420 9631 1431 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 63 55 W 17 11420 9631 1431 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 63 54 W 17 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 53 W 17 10064 8761 561 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 49 W 21 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 48 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 46 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 45 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 44 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 43 W 21 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 42 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 41 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 40 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 39 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 38 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 38 W 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 38 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 38 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 39 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 41 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 44 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 47 SW 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 49 W 18 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 53 W 18 10064 8761 561 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 54 W 18 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 55 W 18 11420 9631 1431 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 63 54 W 18 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 52 W 18 9634 8314 114 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 50 W 18 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 47 W 18 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 45 W 18 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 43 W 18 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 42 W 18 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 41 W 18 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 40 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 39 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 38 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 38 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 37 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 36 W 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 36 SW 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 37 SW 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 39 SW 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 42 SW 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 45 SW 13 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 49 SW 13 8299 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 51 SW 17 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 53 SW 17 10064 8761 561 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 54 SW 17 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 55 SW 17 11420 9631 1431 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 64 54 SW 17 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 53 SW 17 10064 8761 561 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 51 W 17 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 48 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 45 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 44 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 43 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 43 W 17 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 42 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 40 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 37 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 35 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 34 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 34 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 35 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 36 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 37 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 39 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 42 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 45 N 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 48 E 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 50 E 15 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 50 E 15 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 51 E 15 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 51 E 15 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 51 E 15 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 50 NE 14 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 48 NE 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 46 NE 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 44 NE 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 43 NE 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 43 NE 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 42 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 40 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 37 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 35 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 35 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 35 NE 15 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 35 E 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 36 E 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 38 E 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 41 E 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 46 E 16 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 50 E 16 8752 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 54 E 16 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 56 E 16 11683 10055 1855 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 65 57 E 16 11944 11142 2942 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 65 56 E 16 11683 10055 1855 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 66 56 E 16 11683 10055 1855 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 67 56 E 16 11683 10055 1855 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 67 54 W 12 11156 9200 1000 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 51 W 12 9197 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 48 W 12 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 46 W 12 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 45 W 12 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 45 W 12 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 45 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 44 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 42 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 39 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 38 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 37 W 14 7897 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com