Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 33 18 SW 62 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 19 SW 62 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 18 SW 62 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 18 SW 63 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 19 SW 63 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 21 SW 63 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 22 SW 64 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 22 SW 64 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 22 SW 64 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 21 SW 61 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 19 SW 61 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 18 SW 61 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 18 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 32 17 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 17 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 17 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 16 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 15 SW 58 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 13 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 13 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 12 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 10 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 9 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 22 7 SW 51 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 21 6 SW 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 6 SW 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 5 SW 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 21 6 W 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 4 W 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 3 W 31 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 17 2 W 21 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 16 1 W 21 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 16 1 W 21 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 17 2 W 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 17 2 W 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 17 2 W 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 16 1 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 15 0 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 15 0 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 16 1 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 18 3 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 17 2 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 16 1 NW 20 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 15 0 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 17 2 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 5 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 5 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 17 2 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 14 -1 N 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 13 -1 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 14 0 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 16 2 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 20 6 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 22 8 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 21 6 NW 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 20 5 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 21 6 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 22 7 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 8 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 21 6 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 18 3 NW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 17 2 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 18 3 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 18 3 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 19 4 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 19 4 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 19 4 NW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 4 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 20 5 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 6 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 6 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 21 6 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 20 5 SW 12 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 20 5 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 23 8 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 27 12 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 29 14 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 28 13 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 27 12 SW 26 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 25 10 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 25 10 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 27 12 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 13 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 13 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 12 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 12 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 13 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 15 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 15 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 14 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 13 SW 15 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 12 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 13 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 15 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 16 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 15 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 14 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 28 13 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 14 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 30 15 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 31 16 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 30 15 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 28 13 W 14 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 27 12 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 28 13 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 29 14 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 15 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 14 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 13 W 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 12 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 13 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 15 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 16 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 15 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 13 SW 9 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 12 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 13 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 14 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 16 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 16 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 15 SW 7 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 15 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 16 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 33 18 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 34 19 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 33 18 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 31 16 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 30 15 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 30 15 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 31 16 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 16 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 16 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 14 SW 10 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 14 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 15 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 17 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 18 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 17 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 14 SW 17 9370 9370 1170 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com