Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 31 16 E 12 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 16 E 12 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 17 E 12 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 19 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 22 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 25 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 28 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 31 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 32 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 33 E 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 46 34 E 13 9431 8573 373 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 35 E 13 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 34 NE 10 9431 8573 373 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 32 NE 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 29 NE 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 27 NE 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 25 NE 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 24 NE 13 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 24 E 16 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 24 E 16 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 23 E 16 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 23 E 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 22 E 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 21 E 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 20 NE 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 20 NE 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 21 NE 14 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 23 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 25 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 28 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 31 E 16 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 46 35 E 16 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 38 E 16 11417 10807 2607 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 50 39 E 16 11523 11053 2853 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 52 40 E 16 11626 11267 3067 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 52 39 E 16 11523 11053 2853 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 52 38 E 15 11417 10807 2607 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 50 35 E 15 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 33 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 31 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 29 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 27 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 26 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 25 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 25 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 24 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 24 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 23 E 15 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 23 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 23 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 24 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 25 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 28 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 30 E 10 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 34 E 10 9431 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 37 E 10 11280 9430 1230 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 50 40 E 10 11626 11267 3067 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 52 41 E 10 11717 11410 3210 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 53 41 E 10 11717 11410 3210 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 53 40 E 10 11626 11267 3067 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 52 38 NE 7 11417 10807 2607 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 50 35 NE 7 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 33 NE 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 31 NE 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 30 NE 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 29 NE 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 29 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 28 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 27 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 26 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 25 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 24 E 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 24 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 25 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 27 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 29 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 31 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 33 S 6 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 36 SE 7 11064 8573 373 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 50 39 SE 7 11523 11053 2853 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 53 43 SE 7 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 54 43 SE 7 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 55 43 SE 7 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 54 41 SE 7 11717 11410 3210 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 53 39 NW 8 11523 11053 2853 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 50 35 NW 8 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 33 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 31 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 30 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 29 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 29 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 29 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 28 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 27 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 25 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 24 S 5 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 24 SW 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 26 SW 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 29 SW 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 31 SW 7 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 34 SW 7 9431 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 35 SW 7 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 38 S 7 11417 10807 2607 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 52 41 S 7 11717 11410 3210 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 56 45 S 7 12357 11800 3600 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 58 46 S 7 12541 11973 3773 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 58 46 S 7 12541 11973 3773 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 56 43 S 7 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 53 38 W 9 11417 10807 2607 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 51 36 W 9 11064 8573 373 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 48 33 W 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 32 W 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 30 W 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 30 W 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 29 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 29 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 29 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 28 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 27 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 26 SW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 26 SW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 27 SW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 30 SW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 32 SW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 35 SW 9 10849 8573 373 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 37 SW 9 11280 9430 1230 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 52 40 NE 9 11626 11267 3067 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 54 43 NE 9 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 56 45 NE 9 12357 11800 3600 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 58 47 NE 9 12753 12156 3956 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 59 47 NE 9 12753 12156 3956 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 59 46 NE 9 12541 11973 3773 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 57 43 NW 9 11989 11620 3420 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 54 39 NW 9 11523 11053 2853 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 51 36 NW 9 11064 8573 373 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 48 33 NW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 33 NW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 33 NW 9 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 33 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 32 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 30 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 29 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 28 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 28 NW 8 8573 8573 373 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com