Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 38 23 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 28 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 23 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 24 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 25 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 27 S 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 29 SE 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 31 SE 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 46 32 SE 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 32 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 30 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 29 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 27 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 25 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 24 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 23 S 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 21 S 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 20 S 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 20 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 20 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 20 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 20 S 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 18 S 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 17 S 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 15 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 15 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 16 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 18 SE 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 21 SE 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 24 SE 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 28 SE 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 31 SE 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 33 SE 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 32 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 32 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 45 30 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 29 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 27 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 25 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 24 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 22 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 21 E 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 20 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 20 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 20 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 19 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 18 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 17 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 17 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 18 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 19 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 21 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 23 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 25 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 28 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 30 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 32 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 32 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 32 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 29 E 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 43 28 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 26 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 24 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 22 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 21 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 20 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 19 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 20 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 21 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 21 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 20 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 18 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 17 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 17 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 19 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 21 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 23 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 25 W 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 28 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 27 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 28 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 27 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 27 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 43 28 SW 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 27 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 24 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 21 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 18 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 18 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 19 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 20 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 20 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 18 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 17 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 16 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 16 W 3 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 16 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 16 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 17 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 19 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 22 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 24 W 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 27 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 27 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 26 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 26 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 27 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 27 S 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 26 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 24 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 20 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 18 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 17 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 17 W 5 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 18 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 17 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 17 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 16 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 15 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 15 E 7 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 15 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 15 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 16 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 17 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 19 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 20 SE 10 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 22 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 22 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 22 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 36 22 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 24 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 25 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 40 25 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 22 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 18 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 15 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 30 15 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 17 SW 6 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 18 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 17 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 15 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 14 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 14 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 15 SE 8 7720 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com