Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 30 15 SW 13 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 16 SW 13 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 18 SW 13 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 20 S 9 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 23 S 9 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 25 S 9 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 29 SW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 32 SW 14 9409 8835 635 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 44 34 SW 14 9877 8961 761 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 45 35 W 17 10054 9409 1209 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 46 35 W 17 10054 9409 1209 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 47 35 W 17 10054 9409 1209 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 46 32 W 21 9409 8835 635 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 31 W 21 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 30 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 28 W 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 27 W 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 26 W 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 26 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 25 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 25 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 25 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 24 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 23 SW 17 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 23 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 23 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 23 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 24 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 25 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 27 SW 22 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 28 SW 31 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 28 SW 31 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 40 29 SW 31 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 27 SW 40 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 28 SW 40 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 27 SW 40 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 24 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 24 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 23 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 22 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 21 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 20 SW 35 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 20 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 20 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 20 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 19 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 19 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 18 W 21 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 18 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 18 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 19 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 20 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 20 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 21 W 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 23 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 24 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 25 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 25 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 25 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 24 NW 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 24 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 22 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 22 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 21 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 20 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 19 N 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 19 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 19 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 18 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 18 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 17 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 17 NE 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 17 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 18 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 20 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 22 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 25 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 27 E 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 29 E 9 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 30 E 9 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 31 E 9 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 32 E 9 9409 8835 635 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 43 32 E 9 9409 8835 635 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 33 E 9 9701 8835 635 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 45 31 N 10 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 29 N 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 27 N 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 25 N 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 24 N 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 24 N 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 25 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 24 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 24 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 23 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 22 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 21 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 21 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 22 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 23 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 26 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 29 E 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 33 E 8 9701 8835 635 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 46 35 E 8 10054 9409 1209 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 46 36 E 8 10335 9699 1499 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 46 37 E 8 10594 9875 1675 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 46 36 E 8 10335 9699 1499 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 48 37 E 8 10594 9875 1675 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 50 38 E 8 11011 10050 1850 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 50 36 NE 10 10335 9699 1499 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 48 33 NE 10 9701 8835 635 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 46 31 NE 10 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 29 NE 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 29 NE 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 30 NE 10 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 30 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 29 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 28 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 26 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 25 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 25 S 8 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 25 S 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 26 S 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 27 S 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 30 S 12 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 34 S 12 9877 8961 761 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 51 39 S 12 11562 10328 2128 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 53 41 SW 17 12527 10983 2783 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 53 42 SW 17 12700 11525 3325 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 52 41 SW 17 12527 10983 2783 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 51 40 SW 17 12096 10584 2384 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 52 40 SW 17 12096 10584 2384 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 53 40 SW 17 12096 10584 2384 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 53 38 W 21 11011 10050 1850 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 51 36 W 21 10335 9699 1499 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 48 33 W 21 9701 8835 635 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 46 31 W 21 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 31 W 21 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 31 W 21 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 31 W 14 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 31 W 14 8955 8835 635 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 29 W 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 28 W 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 27 W 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 27 W 14 8835 8835 635 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com