Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 21 6 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 23 8 NW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 25 10 NNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 24 9 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 22 7 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 21 6 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 20 5 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 20 5 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 20 5 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 21 7 SW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 23 10 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 24 12 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 25 14 N 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 26 14 N 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 27 15 N 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 27 13 N 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 27 12 N 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 27 12 N 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 24 9 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 22 7 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 19 4 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 16 1 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 13 -2 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 10 -5 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 20 5 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 29 14 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 24 ESE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 38 23 ESE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 23 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 38 23 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 32 17 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 26 11 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 20 5 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 22 8 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 24 11 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 26 14 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 28 17 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 30 19 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 32 20 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 32 19 E 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 33 18 E 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 34 19 E 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 32 17 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 30 15 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 29 14 ESE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 25 10 ESE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 21 6 SE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 18 3 SSE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 27 12 SSE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 35 20 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 28 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 28 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 28 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 28 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 26 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 37 25 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 33 22 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 34 23 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 35 23 SSW 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 36 23 SSW 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 36 22 SSW 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 36 21 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 36 21 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 35 20 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 34 19 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 32 17 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 30 15 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 27 12 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 25 10 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com