Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 33 18 NE 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 19 NE 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 20 NE 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 23 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 25 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 27 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 30 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 33 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 37 N 13 10579 9747 1547 White 2
2 PM Sun 47 38 N 15 10806 10195 1995 White 3
3 PM Sun 48 38 N 15 10806 10195 1995 White 3
4 PM Sun 48 37 N 15 10579 9747 1547 White 2
5 PM Sun 48 35 N 16 10125 9262 1062 White 0
6 PM Sun 47 33 N 16 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 31 N 16 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 30 N 15 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 29 N 15 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 29 N 15 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 28 N 17 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 28 N 17 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 27 N 17 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 26 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 24 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 23 N 13 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 23 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 23 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 24 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 27 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 30 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 33 N 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 36 N 10 10353 9262 1062 White 1
12 Noon Mon 48 40 N 10 11104 10911 2711 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 50 43 N 10 11807 11101 2901 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 52 44 N 10 11991 11269 3069 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 53 44 N 10 11991 11269 3069 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 53 42 N 10 11570 11041 2841 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 52 39 N 13 11035 10812 2612 White 4
6 PM Mon 52 38 N 13 10806 10195 1995 White 3
7 PM Mon 51 36 N 13 10353 9262 1062 White 1
8 PM Mon 50 35 N 13 10125 9262 1062 White 0
9 PM Mon 50 35 N 13 10125 9262 1062 White 0
10 PM Mon 49 34 N 13 9752 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 33 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 32 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 31 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 30 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 29 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 28 NE 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 28 E 8 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 29 E 8 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 31 E 8 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 34 E 8 9752 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 38 E 8 10806 10195 1995 White 3
10 AM Tue 51 40 E 8 11104 10911 2711 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 53 43 SW 17 11807 11101 2901 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 55 46 SW 17 12612 11793 3593 White 11
1 PM Tue 58 50 SW 17 13500 12796 4596 White 15
2 PM Tue 59 50 SW 17 13500 12796 4596 White 15
3 PM Tue 59 49 SW 17 13279 12614 4414 White 14
4 PM Tue 58 47 SW 17 12829 11976 3776 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 56 43 W 17 11807 11101 2901 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 55 41 W 17 11286 10981 2781 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 54 39 W 17 11035 10812 2612 White 4
8 PM Tue 53 38 W 17 10806 10195 1995 White 3
9 PM Tue 52 37 W 17 10579 9747 1547 White 2
10 PM Tue 51 36 W 17 10353 9262 1062 White 1
11 PM Tue 50 35 SW 15 10125 9262 1062 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 35 SW 15 10125 9262 1062 White 0
1 AM Wed 50 35 SW 15 10125 9262 1062 White 0
2 AM Wed 49 34 SW 15 9752 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 32 SW 15 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 30 SW 15 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 30 SW 21 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 31 SW 21 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 33 SW 21 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 35 SW 21 10125 9262 1062 White 0
9 AM Wed 49 36 SW 21 10353 9262 1062 White 1
10 AM Wed 48 37 SW 21 10579 9747 1547 White 2
11 AM Wed 47 36 SW 26 10353 9262 1062 White 1
12 Noon Wed 49 39 SW 26 11035 10812 2612 White 4
1 PM Wed 51 41 SW 26 11286 10981 2781 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 52 42 SW 26 11570 11041 2841 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 51 40 SW 26 11104 10911 2711 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 48 36 SW 26 10353 9262 1062 White 1
5 PM Wed 46 32 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 31 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 31 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 31 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 30 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 28 SW 29 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 27 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 27 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 28 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 28 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 26 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 24 S 24 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 24 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 25 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 26 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 29 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 29 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 29 S 23 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 29 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 30 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 32 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 32 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 30 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 27 SW 28 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 24 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 23 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 24 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 24 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 22 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 20 SW 26 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 18 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 19 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 20 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 20 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 19 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 18 W 12 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 18 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 20 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 22 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 25 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 26 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 26 SW 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 28 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 29 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 33 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 34 W 14 9752 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 33 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 31 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 29 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 26 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 26 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 26 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 25 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 25 W 14 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 23 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 22 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 22 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 21 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 21 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 21 W 10 9262 9262 1062 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com