Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 27 12 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 10 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 11 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 27 12 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 13 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 15 SW 37 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 16 SW 43 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 18 SW 43 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 32 18 SW 43 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 32 18 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 32 17 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 31 16 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 31 16 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 15 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 14 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 12 SW 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 12 SW 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 11 SW 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 11 S 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 12 S 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 12 S 39 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 12 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 12 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 11 SW 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 10 S 44 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 10 S 44 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 11 S 44 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 12 S 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 12 S 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 28 13 S 45 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 28 13 SW 40 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 29 14 SW 40 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 29 14 SW 40 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 29 14 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 28 13 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 27 12 SW 41 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 26 11 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 24 9 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 23 8 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 22 7 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 21 6 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 21 6 SW 36 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 5 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 20 5 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 19 4 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 19 4 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 18 3 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 4 SW 33 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 4 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 3 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 3 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 3 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 19 4 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 20 6 SW 30 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 21 7 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 21 7 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 22 9 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 22 8 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 22 8 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 22 8 SW 26 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 21 6 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 20 5 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 19 4 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 18 3 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 18 3 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 3 W 24 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 3 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 18 3 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 17 2 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 2 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 16 1 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 16 1 W 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 16 1 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 2 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 17 2 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 3 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 4 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 19 6 W 17 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 20 8 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 21 10 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 22 11 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 23 11 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 23 11 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 23 10 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 23 8 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 22 7 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 7 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 22 7 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 21 6 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 21 6 N 12 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 21 6 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 6 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 6 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 6 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 5 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 5 NE 20 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 5 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 21 6 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 8 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 9 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 10 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 25 12 NE 16 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 13 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 26 14 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 28 16 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 29 17 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 16 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 29 15 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 29 15 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 28 13 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 28 13 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 12 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 11 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 11 NE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 11 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 10 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 10 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 9 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 8 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 7 E 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 8 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 10 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 12 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 14 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 17 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 18 SE 13 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 32 20 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 22 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 24 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 24 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 37 25 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 24 W 14 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 21 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 20 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 19 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 18 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 17 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 17 W 15 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 16 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 16 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 15 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 14 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 14 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 13 SW 18 8360 8360 160 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com