Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 30 15 SW 46 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 8 SW 46 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 10 SW 46 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 7 W 41 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 22 7 W 41 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 20 5 W 41 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 20 6 W 23 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 20 6 W 23 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 21 7 W 23 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 22 8 NW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 22 8 NW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 22 7 NW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 22 7 N 18 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 22 7 N 18 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 22 7 N 18 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 7 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 12 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 12 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 12 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 27 12 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 12 S 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 13 SW 16 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 14 SW 16 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 15 SW 16 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 16 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 17 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 18 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 18 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 17 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 16 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 17 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 32 19 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 21 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 36 23 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 23 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 37 22 SW 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 21 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 20 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 18 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 16 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 15 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 15 SW 15 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 15 S 14 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 15 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 16 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 16 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 17 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 18 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 19 SW 21 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 20 SW 22 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 23 SW 22 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 25 SW 22 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 41 27 SW 22 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 41 26 SW 22 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 40 25 SW 22 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 39 24 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 22 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 20 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 19 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 17 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 17 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 17 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 18 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 19 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 20 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 20 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 19 SW 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 20 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 22 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 25 SW 36 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 41 26 SW 36 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 38 23 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 19 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 17 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 20 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 39 24 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 27 SW 32 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 41 26 SW 32 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 38 23 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 20 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 20 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 21 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 22 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 21 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 19 W 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 18 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 19 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 21 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 22 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 22 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 20 W 28 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 19 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 21 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 24 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 25 SW 25 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 40 25 SW 25 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 39 24 SW 25 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 24 S 29 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 41 26 S 29 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 44 29 S 29 11610 10440 2240 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 46 31 S 29 12112 11207 3007 White 7
2 PM Tue 45 30 S 29 11889 10826 2626 White 6
3 PM Tue 42 27 S 29 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 40 25 SW 37 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 40 25 SW 37 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 41 26 SW 37 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 42 27 SW 37 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 40 25 SW 37 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 38 23 SW 37 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 22 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 23 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 25 SW 32 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 41 26 SW 32 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 40 25 SW 32 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 39 24 SW 32 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 23 SW 31 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 24 SW 31 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 26 SW 31 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 42 27 SW 31 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 41 26 SW 31 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 40 25 SW 31 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 40 25 SW 30 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 41 26 SW 30 10453 9334 1134 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 44 29 SW 30 11610 10440 2240 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 45 30 SW 30 11889 10826 2626 White 6
2 PM Wed 44 29 SW 30 11610 10440 2240 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 42 27 SW 30 10844 9334 1134 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 40 25 SW 30 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 40 25 SW 30 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 40 25 SW 30 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 40 25 SW 30 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 38 23 SW 30 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 21 SW 30 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 20 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 21 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 24 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 25 SW 36 10222 9334 1134 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 39 24 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 21 SW 36 9334 9334 1134 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com