Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 33 18 S 30 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 18 S 30 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 16 S 30 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 16 S 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 16 S 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 15 S 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 30 15 S 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 30 15 S 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 30 15 S 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 30 15 W 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 30 15 W 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 30 15 W 16 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 14 W 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 14 W 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 14 W 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 14 NW 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 29 14 NW 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 14 NW 23 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 14 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 14 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 15 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 15 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 15 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 15 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 16 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 15 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 16 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 18 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 18 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 19 N 20 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 20 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 35 22 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 35 22 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 35 22 NW 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 35 22 NW 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 21 NW 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 20 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 35 20 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 20 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 19 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 19 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 19 NW 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 19 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 19 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 18 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 18 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 18 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 18 N 22 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 19 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 20 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 21 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 22 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 24 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 25 N 18 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 27 N 17 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 39 28 N 17 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 39 29 N 17 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 40 29 N 17 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 41 29 N 17 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 42 29 N 17 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 42 28 N 17 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 27 N 17 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 27 N 17 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 26 N 17 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 25 N 17 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 24 N 17 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 24 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 24 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 23 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 23 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 23 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 22 N 21 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 23 N 13 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 24 N 13 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 26 N 13 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 28 N 13 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 31 N 13 10744 9651 1451 White 3
10 AM Wed 45 33 N 13 11188 10840 2640 White 5
11 AM Wed 45 32 E 13 10966 10257 2057 White 4
12 Noon Wed 46 34 E 13 11409 11400 3200 White 6
1 PM Wed 46 34 E 13 11409 11400 3200 White 6
2 PM Wed 46 34 E 13 11409 11400 3200 White 6
3 PM Wed 46 33 E 13 11188 10840 2640 White 5
4 PM Wed 46 33 E 13 11188 10840 2640 White 5
5 PM Wed 45 31 W 16 10744 9651 1451 White 3
6 PM Wed 45 30 W 16 10521 9219 1019 White 2
7 PM Wed 44 29 W 16 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 44 29 W 16 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 43 28 W 16 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 28 W 16 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 27 W 10 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 26 W 10 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 25 W 10 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 25 W 10 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 24 W 10 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 23 W 10 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 24 W 12 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 25 W 12 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 26 W 12 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 29 W 12 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 44 31 W 12 10744 9651 1451 White 3
10 AM Thu 46 34 W 12 11409 11400 3200 White 6
11 AM Thu 46 34 SW 14 11409 11400 3200 White 6
12 Noon Thu 47 36 SW 14 11851 11851 3651 White 8
1 PM Thu 47 36 SW 14 11851 11851 3651 White 8
2 PM Thu 46 35 SW 14 11630 11630 3430 White 7
3 PM Thu 47 35 SW 14 11630 11630 3430 White 7
4 PM Thu 47 34 SW 14 11409 11400 3200 White 6
5 PM Thu 46 32 W 22 10966 10257 2057 White 4
6 PM Thu 46 31 W 22 10744 9651 1451 White 3
7 PM Thu 45 30 W 22 10521 9219 1019 White 2
8 PM Thu 44 29 W 22 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 43 28 W 22 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 27 W 22 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 27 W 14 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 26 W 14 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 26 W 14 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 25 W 14 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 25 W 14 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 24 W 14 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 25 W 12 8533 8533 333 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 26 W 12 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 28 W 12 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 31 W 12 10744 9651 1451 White 3
9 AM Fri 46 33 W 12 11188 10840 2640 White 5
10 AM Fri 47 35 W 12 11630 11630 3430 White 7
11 AM Fri 48 37 E 12 12072 12072 3872 White 9
12 Noon Fri 48 38 E 12 12292 12292 4092 White 10
1 PM Fri 48 38 E 12 12292 12292 4092 White 10
2 PM Fri 49 38 E 12 12292 12292 4092 White 10
3 PM Fri 49 38 E 12 12292 12292 4092 White 10
4 PM Fri 49 37 E 12 12072 12072 3872 White 9
5 PM Fri 49 35 NW 18 11630 11630 3430 White 7
6 PM Fri 48 33 NW 18 11188 10840 2640 White 5
7 PM Fri 46 31 NW 18 10744 9651 1451 White 3
8 PM Fri 45 30 NW 18 10521 9219 1019 White 2
9 PM Fri 44 29 NW 18 10275 8779 579 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 43 28 NW 18 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 28 W 13 9656 8533 333 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 27 W 13 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 27 W 13 9217 8533 333 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 26 W 13 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 26 W 13 8770 8533 333 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 25 W 13 8533 8533 333 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com