Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 58 43 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 43 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 43 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 45 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 47 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 49 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 50 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 53 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 54 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 55 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 54 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 52 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 49 W 12 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 47 W 12 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 45 W 12 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 44 W 13 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 43 W 13 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 43 W 13 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 43 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 43 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 42 W 7 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 42 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 41 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 41 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 41 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 41 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 42 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 42 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 46 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 48 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 50 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 53 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 55 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 56 SW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 55 SW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 54 SW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 52 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 49 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 48 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 47 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 46 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 45 W 10 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 45 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 45 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 45 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 45 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 44 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 43 W 6 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 42 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 43 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 44 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 46 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 48 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 50 S 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 51 SE 14 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 54 SE 14 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 68 57 SE 14 8502 8484 284 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 69 58 SE 14 8841 8484 284 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 68 56 SE 14 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 67 55 SE 14 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 51 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 49 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 48 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 47 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 47 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 46 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 45 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 45 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 45 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 45 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 45 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 44 N 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 43 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 44 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 44 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 46 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 48 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 51 SE 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 53 SW 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 56 SW 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 60 SW 9 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 70 60 SW 9 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 60 SW 9 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 69 57 SW 9 8502 8484 284 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 55 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 53 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 51 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 50 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 48 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 47 W 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 45 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 44 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 44 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 43 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 42 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 41 NW 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 41 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 42 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 44 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 47 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 50 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 53 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 56 SW 16 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 59 SW 16 9177 8484 284 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 61 SW 16 10124 8847 647 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 63 SW 16 13525 9509 1309 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 71 62 SW 16 12596 9179 979 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 71 60 SW 16 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 70 58 W 18 8841 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 54 W 18 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 51 W 18 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 49 W 18 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 48 W 18 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 47 W 18 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 46 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 45 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 44 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 42 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 41 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 41 W 9 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 41 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 43 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 45 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 48 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 50 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 53 W 8 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 57 SW 20 8502 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 60 SW 20 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 71 63 SW 20 13525 9509 1309 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 72 64 SW 20 14828 10100 1900 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 72 63 SW 20 13525 9509 1309 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 71 60 SW 20 9511 8511 311 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 57 W 26 8502 8484 284 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 54 W 26 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 51 W 26 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 50 W 26 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 49 W 26 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 47 W 26 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 46 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 45 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 43 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 42 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 41 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 40 W 15 8484 8484 284 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com