Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 40 25 S 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 26 S 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 27 S 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 28 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 31 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 34 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 37 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 39 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 42 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 53 43 SW 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 43 SW 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 42 SW 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 39 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 36 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 34 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 33 S 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 31 S 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 31 S 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 30 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 30 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 29 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 28 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 27 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 26 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 26 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 26 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 27 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 28 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 30 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 34 S 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 37 S 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 40 S 16 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 52 43 S 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 53 43 SW 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 43 SW 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 43 SW 16 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 40 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 37 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 35 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 33 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 32 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 31 S 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 30 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 29 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 29 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 28 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 27 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 26 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 26 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 26 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 27 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 28 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 30 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 34 S 14 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 37 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 40 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 43 SW 17 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 43 SW 17 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 42 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 40 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 37 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 34 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 33 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 31 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 30 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 29 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 28 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 27 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 27 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 26 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 25 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 24 W 9 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 24 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 25 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 26 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 27 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 29 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 32 W 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 35 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 38 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 41 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 42 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 42 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 41 W 8 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 37 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 34 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 32 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 30 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 29 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 28 NW 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 28 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 28 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 27 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 26 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 25 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 24 E 7 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 24 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 25 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 27 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 29 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 32 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 36 S 12 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 39 SW 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 42 SW 13 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 45 SW 13 10321 8200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 55 45 SW 13 10321 8200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 56 45 SW 13 10321 8200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 56 44 SW 13 10026 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 41 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 38 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 35 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 32 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 31 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 30 SW 17 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 29 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 29 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 29 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 28 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 27 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 26 SW 18 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 25 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 26 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 27 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 29 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 31 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 35 SW 21 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 37 SW 25 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 40 SW 25 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 43 SW 25 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 43 SW 25 8938 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 42 SW 25 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 40 SW 25 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 37 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 34 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 32 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 31 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 30 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 29 SW 24 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 29 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 28 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 28 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 27 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 26 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 26 SW 22 7713 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com