Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 26 11 SW 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 25 10 SW 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 25 10 SW 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 23 8 SW 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 23 8 SW 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 22 7 SW 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 22 7 SW 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 21 6 SW 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 21 6 SW 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 21 6 SW 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 20 5 SW 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 19 4 SW 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 19 4 SW 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 19 4 SW 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 19 4 SW 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 19 4 W 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 19 4 W 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 19 4 W 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 19 4 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 19 4 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 19 4 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 19 4 W 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 19 4 W 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 19 4 W 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 19 4 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 20 5 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 20 5 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 21 6 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 22 7 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 22 7 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 23 8 W 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 24 9 W 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 24 9 W 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 25 10 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 25 10 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 25 10 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 25 10 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 27 12 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 26 11 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 27 12 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 16 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 16 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 31 16 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 32 17 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 32 17 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 32 17 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 32 18 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 32 18 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 32 18 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 32 17 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 32 17 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 32 17 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 31 16 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 30 15 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 29 14 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 29 14 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 28 13 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 29 14 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 29 14 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 29 14 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 29 14 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 29 14 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 28 13 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 28 13 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 30 15 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 31 16 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 32 17 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 32 17 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 31 16 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 30 15 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 31 16 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 31 16 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 31 16 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 30 15 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 28 13 SW 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 27 12 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 27 12 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 28 13 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 27 12 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 25 10 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 22 7 SW 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 20 5 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 21 6 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 23 8 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 24 9 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 23 8 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 22 7 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 20 5 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 19 4 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 19 4 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 20 5 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 19 4 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 19 4 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 19 4 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 20 6 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 21 7 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 22 8 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 21 7 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 20 5 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 19 4 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 19 4 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 19 4 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 19 4 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 19 4 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 18 3 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 17 2 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 18 3 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 19 4 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 20 5 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 21 6 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 20 5 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 20 5 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 19 4 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 19 4 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 20 5 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 22 7 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 25 10 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 27 13 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 27 13 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 27 14 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 27 13 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 29 15 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 30 15 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 30 15 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 28 13 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 25 10 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 23 8 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 24 9 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 25 10 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 26 11 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 26 11 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 25 10 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 24 9 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 25 10 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 26 11 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com