Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 SW 20 6776 6700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 20 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 SW 20 6776 6700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 18 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 SW 18 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 SW 18 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 43 W 21 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 42 W 21 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 40 W 21 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 38 NW 22 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 36 NW 22 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 34 34 NW 22 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 33 33 NW 17 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 NW 17 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 NW 17 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 NW 14 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 28 NW 14 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 NW 14 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 26 NW 7 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 NW 7 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 NW 7 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 24 24 N 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 23 23 N 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 N 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 21 21 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 23 23 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 27 E 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 29 31 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 33 35 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 35 37 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 38 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 37 38 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 SW 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 E 1 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 SE 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 SE 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 39 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 43 S 5 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 45 S 5 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 45 S 5 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 45 S 5 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 S 5 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 S 6 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 44 S 6 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 S 6 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 S 6 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 S 6 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 SW 3 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 SW 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 SW 3 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 42 S 2 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 45 S 2 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 47 S 2 6946 6700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 47 47 S 2 6946 6700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 47 47 S 2 6946 6700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 46 46 S 2 6776 6700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 44 44 S 2 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 S 2 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 S 2 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 43 S 5 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 47 S 3 6946 6700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 48 49 S 3 7285 6771 71 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 50 51 S 3 8825 7109 409 White 6
2 PM Wed 51 51 S 3 8825 7109 409 White 6
3 PM Wed 51 51 S 3 8825 7109 409 White 6
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 3 7285 6771 71 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 48 48 SE 3 7115 6700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 46 46 SE 3 6776 6700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 45 45 SE 3 6605 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 SE 3 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SE 3 6298 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 SE 3 5968 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 5 5636 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 S 5 5361 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com