Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SE 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 74 S 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 78 S 8 6096 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 80 S 8 7937 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 82 86 SW 9 15206 11339 4639 White 7
1 PM Sat 87 91 SW 9 16247 16247 9547 White 12
2 PM Sat 90 94 SW 9 16868 16868 10168 White 15
3 PM Sat 90 94 SW 10 16868 16868 10168 White 15
4 PM Sat 91 94 SW 10 16868 16868 10168 White 15
5 PM Sat 90 92 SW 10 16454 16454 9754 White 13
6 PM Sat 91 91 W 6 16247 16247 9547 White 12
7 PM Sat 90 90 W 6 16039 15590 8890 White 11
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 6 15206 11339 4639 White 7
9 PM Sat 80 80 S 7 7937 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 78 78 S 7 6096 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 78 78 S 7 6096 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 S 10 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 S 10 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 S 10 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 S 9 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 S 9 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 S 9 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 73 W 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 77 W 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 80 W 3 7937 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 81 83 W 6 11681 7868 1168 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 85 87 W 6 15414 12984 6284 White 8
2 PM Sun 87 89 W 6 15832 15068 8368 White 10
3 PM Sun 88 90 NW 7 16039 15590 8890 White 11
4 PM Sun 88 90 NW 7 16039 15590 8890 White 11
5 PM Sun 88 89 NW 7 15832 15068 8368 White 10
6 PM Sun 86 86 NW 6 15206 11339 4639 White 7
7 PM Sun 83 83 NW 6 11681 7868 1168 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 6 6656 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 NW 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 NW 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 E 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 E 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 E 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 E 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 76 E 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 80 E 3 7937 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 79 83 NW 6 11681 7868 1168 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 81 86 NW 6 15206 11339 4639 White 7
2 PM Mon 84 89 NW 6 15832 15068 8368 White 10
3 PM Mon 87 92 NW 6 16454 16454 9754 White 13
4 PM Mon 88 92 NW 6 16454 16454 9754 White 13
5 PM Mon 89 91 NW 6 16247 16247 9547 White 12
6 PM Mon 88 89 N 5 15832 15068 8368 White 10
7 PM Mon 85 85 N 5 14547 9885 3185 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 81 81 N 5 9027 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 77 77 N 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 73 N 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 N 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 E 6 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 E 6 7937 6700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 81 85 E 6 14547 9885 3185 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 84 89 SW 5 15832 15068 8368 White 10
1 PM Tue 86 91 SW 5 16247 16247 9547 White 12
2 PM Tue 89 94 SW 5 16868 16868 10168 White 15
3 PM Tue 90 95 SW 5 17074 17074 10374 White 16
4 PM Tue 91 95 SW 5 17074 17074 10374 White 16
5 PM Tue 91 93 SW 5 16661 16661 9961 White 14
6 PM Tue 89 90 NW 7 16039 15590 8890 White 11
7 PM Tue 86 86 NW 7 15206 11339 4639 White 7
8 PM Tue 82 82 NW 7 10005 6700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 77 77 NW 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 78 SE 5 6096 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 79 83 SE 5 11681 7868 1168 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 81 86 W 5 15206 11339 4639 White 7
1 PM Wed 84 89 W 5 15832 15068 8368 White 10
2 PM Wed 86 91 W 5 16247 16247 9547 White 12
3 PM Wed 88 93 W 5 16661 16661 9961 White 14
4 PM Wed 90 94 W 5 16868 16868 10168 White 15
5 PM Wed 90 92 W 5 16454 16454 9754 White 13
6 PM Wed 89 90 NW 8 16039 15590 8890 White 11
7 PM Wed 85 85 NW 8 14547 9885 3185 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 81 81 NW 8 9027 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 77 77 NW 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 NW 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 NW 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 SE 5 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 78 SE 5 6096 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 82 SE 5 10005 6700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 81 86 W 6 15206 11339 4639 White 7
1 PM Thu 83 88 W 6 15623 14240 7540 White 9
2 PM Thu 87 92 W 6 16454 16454 9754 White 13
3 PM Thu 89 94 W 6 16868 16868 10168 White 15
4 PM Thu 91 95 W 6 17074 17074 10374 White 16
5 PM Thu 91 93 W 6 16661 16661 9961 White 14
6 PM Thu 89 90 W 8 16039 15590 8890 White 11
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 8 15206 11339 4639 White 7
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 8 9027 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SE 3 5738 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com