Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 SE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 34 34 SE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 34 34 SE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 SE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 44 SE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 44 SE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 44 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 44 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 42 42 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 42 42 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 40 40 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 38 38 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 38 38 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 38 38 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 36 36 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 36 36 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 34 34 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 30 30 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 30 30 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 28 28 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 28 28 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 33 33 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 37 37 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 35 35 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 35 35 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 34 34 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 30 30 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 27 27 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 25 25 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 24 24 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 23 23 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 22 22 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 22 22 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 22 22 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 23 23 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 23 23 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 24 24 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 25 25 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 26 26 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 27 27 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 28 28 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 29 29 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 31 31 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 33 33 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 35 35 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 36 36 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 36 36 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 36 36 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 35 35 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 34 34 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 32 32 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 29 29 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 26 26 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 24 24 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 23 23 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 24 24 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 24 24 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 23 23 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 23 23 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 25 25 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 27 27 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 31 31 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 36 36 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 38 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 37 37 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 36 36 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 35 35 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 33 33 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 33 33 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 33 33 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 32 32 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 31 31 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 31 31 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 30 30 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 29 29 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 29 29 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 35 35 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 35 35 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 33 33 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 31 31 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 30 30 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 27 27 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 26 26 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 24 24 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 23 23 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 20 20 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 20 20 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 19 19 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 19 19 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 19 19 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 21 21 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 23 23 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 24 24 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 27 27 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 29 29 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 30 31 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 30 31 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 30 30 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 30 30 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 29 29 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 28 28 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 26 26 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 25 25 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 23 23 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 21 21 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 20 20 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 19 19 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 18 18 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 18 18 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 18 18 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 19 19 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 20 20 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com