Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 34 34 E 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 E 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 E 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 SE 12 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 SE 12 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 55 SE 12 9737 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 55 58 S 8 13046 9497 2797 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 58 62 S 8 14188 13326 6626 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 60 64 S 8 14435 14030 7330 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 61 64 S 7 14435 14030 7330 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 61 63 S 7 14311 13669 6969 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 58 59 S 7 13385 11322 4622 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 58 58 SW 7 13046 9497 2797 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 7 7367 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 S 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 S 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 S 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SE 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 SE 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 SE 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SE 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 SE 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 9 7367 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 SE 9 13046 9497 2797 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 60 61 S 10 14064 12823 6123 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 62 64 S 10 14435 14030 7330 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 63 65 S 10 15243 14153 7453 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 63 64 S 9 14435 14030 7330 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 62 63 S 9 14311 13669 6969 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 61 61 S 9 14064 12823 6123 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 59 59 S 7 13385 11322 4622 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 12038 7351 651 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 S 7 6993 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 S 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 14 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 45 S 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 48 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 50 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 50 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 49 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 NW 9 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 39 W 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 42 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 43 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 45 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 46 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 NW 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 NE 2 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 NE 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 46 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 47 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 47 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 47 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 45 NW 6 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 N 10 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 NE 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 44 N 8 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 47 NW 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 50 NW 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 51 NW 5 6229 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 51 NW 5 6229 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 50 NW 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 49 NW 5 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NW 7 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 S 3 5886 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com