Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 E 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 SE 10 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 54 57 SE 10 11740 8895 2195 White 5
11 AM Sat 55 59 SE 10 12165 12165 5465 White 7
12 Noon Sat 55 58 S 10 11953 9962 3262 White 6
1 PM Sat 55 58 S 10 11953 9962 3262 White 6
2 PM Sat 55 58 S 10 11953 9962 3262 White 6
3 PM Sat 55 58 S 13 11953 9962 3262 White 6
4 PM Sat 56 58 S 13 11953 9962 3262 White 6
5 PM Sat 55 56 S 13 11526 8422 1722 White 4
6 PM Sat 57 58 S 13 11953 9962 3262 White 6
7 PM Sat 56 56 S 13 11526 8422 1722 White 4
8 PM Sat 54 54 S 13 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 51 51 SE 7 6144 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 SE 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SE 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 9 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 E 8 11953 9962 3262 White 6
10 AM Sun 60 62 E 8 12799 12799 6099 White 10
11 AM Sun 61 64 E 8 13218 13218 6518 White 12
12 Noon Sun 62 64 S 15 13218 13218 6518 White 12
1 PM Sun 64 67 S 15 13841 13841 7141 White 15
2 PM Sun 63 66 S 15 13634 13634 6934 White 14
3 PM Sun 62 64 S 15 13218 13218 6518 White 12
4 PM Sun 63 65 S 15 13426 13426 6726 White 13
5 PM Sun 64 65 S 15 13426 13426 6726 White 13
6 PM Sun 64 64 S 10 13218 13218 6518 White 12
7 PM Sun 61 61 S 10 12589 12589 5889 White 9
8 PM Sun 57 57 S 10 11740 8895 2195 White 5
9 PM Sun 53 53 S 10 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 51 51 S 10 6144 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 5 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 SE 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 52 SE 8 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SE 8 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 54 S 6 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 53 54 S 6 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 54 55 S 6 11309 7175 475 White 3
3 PM Mon 55 56 S 6 11526 8422 1722 White 4
4 PM Mon 57 57 S 6 11740 8895 2195 White 5
5 PM Mon 58 58 S 6 11953 9962 3262 White 6
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 7 11953 9962 3262 White 6
7 PM Mon 55 55 SW 7 11309 7175 475 White 3
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 7 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 SW 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 SW 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 50 W 6 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 6144 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 W 6 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 W 6 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 56 56 W 6 11526 8422 1722 White 4
6 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 11309 7175 475 White 3
7 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 11309 7175 475 White 3
8 PM Tue 53 53 NW 7 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NW 7 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 7 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 E 6 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 E 6 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 54 56 E 6 11526 8422 1722 White 4
12 Noon Wed 57 61 S 5 12589 12589 5889 White 9
1 PM Wed 59 63 S 5 13009 13009 6309 White 11
2 PM Wed 60 64 S 5 13218 13218 6518 White 12
3 PM Wed 61 64 S 5 13218 13218 6518 White 12
4 PM Wed 61 63 S 5 13009 13009 6309 White 11
5 PM Wed 61 62 S 5 12799 12799 6099 White 10
6 PM Wed 60 61 SW 7 12589 12589 5889 White 9
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 7 11953 9962 3262 White 6
8 PM Wed 56 56 SW 7 11526 8422 1722 White 4
9 PM Wed 54 54 SW 7 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 7 7318 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 7 5909 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 6 6144 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 SE 6 8940 6700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 55 57 SE 6 11740 8895 2195 White 5
11 AM Thu 58 61 SE 6 12589 12589 5889 White 9
12 Noon Thu 60 64 S 6 13218 13218 6518 White 12
1 PM Thu 61 65 S 6 13426 13426 6726 White 13
2 PM Thu 62 66 S 6 13634 13634 6934 White 14
3 PM Thu 63 66 S 6 13634 13634 6934 White 14
4 PM Thu 63 66 S 6 13634 13634 6934 White 14
5 PM Thu 63 65 S 6 13426 13426 6726 White 13
6 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 12799 12799 6099 White 10
7 PM Thu 60 60 S 7 12378 12378 5678 White 8
8 PM Thu 58 58 S 7 11953 9962 3262 White 6
9 PM Thu 55 55 S 7 11309 7175 475 White 3
10 PM Thu 53 53 S 7 8460 6700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 51 51 S 7 6144 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 5696 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com