Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 64 64 SE 5 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 SE 5 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 SE 5 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 S 6 6979 6700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 76 80 S 6 9640 7633 933 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 78 84 S 6 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 81 88 SW 9 16511 15617 8917 White 15
1 PM Tue 83 91 SW 9 17122 17122 10422 White 18
2 PM Tue 84 92 SW 9 17325 17325 10625 White 19
3 PM Tue 85 92 SW 13 17325 17325 10625 White 19
4 PM Tue 85 91 SW 13 17122 17122 10422 White 18
5 PM Tue 85 89 SW 13 16714 16714 10014 White 16
6 PM Tue 84 86 SW 13 16102 12899 6199 White 13
7 PM Tue 90 91 SW 13 17122 17122 10422 White 18
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 13 16306 13842 7142 White 14
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 14 9640 7633 933 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 77 77 SW 14 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 74 74 SW 14 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 S 13 6643 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 S 13 5691 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 S 13 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 SE 9 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SE 9 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 9 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 S 7 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 S 7 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 S 7 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 S 5 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 74 77 S 5 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 75 80 S 5 9640 7633 933 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 76 81 SW 8 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 78 83 SW 8 13123 9528 2828 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 81 86 SW 8 16102 12899 6199 White 13
3 PM Wed 83 88 SW 10 16511 15617 8917 White 15
4 PM Wed 86 90 SW 10 16919 16919 10219 White 17
5 PM Wed 87 90 SW 10 16919 16919 10219 White 17
6 PM Wed 87 89 SW 9 16714 16714 10014 White 16
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 9 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 9 9640 7633 933 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 7215 6700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 6643 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 SW 9 5691 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 S 8 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 74 77 S 8 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 76 81 S 8 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 78 84 SW 9 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 80 87 SW 9 16306 13842 7142 White 14
2 PM Thu 83 90 SW 9 16919 16919 10219 White 17
3 PM Thu 86 92 SW 9 17325 17325 10625 White 19
4 PM Thu 88 93 SW 9 17529 17529 10829 White 20
5 PM Thu 89 92 SW 9 17325 17325 10625 White 19
6 PM Thu 88 90 SW 15 16919 16919 10219 White 17
7 PM Thu 86 86 SW 15 16102 12899 6199 White 13
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 15 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 81 81 SW 15 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 15 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 73 S 6 6643 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 78 S 6 8089 6975 275 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 77 82 S 6 12047 8482 1782 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 80 87 SW 12 16306 13842 7142 White 14
1 PM Fri 83 91 SW 12 17122 17122 10422 White 18
2 PM Fri 85 93 SW 12 17529 17529 10829 White 20
3 PM Fri 87 94 SW 12 17730 17730 11030 White 21
4 PM Fri 89 94 SW 12 17730 17730 11030 White 21
5 PM Fri 89 93 SW 12 17529 17529 10829 White 20
6 PM Fri 88 90 SW 14 16919 16919 10219 White 17
7 PM Fri 86 87 SW 14 16306 13842 7142 White 14
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 14 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 14 9640 7633 933 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 76 76 SW 14 7215 6700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 73 73 SW 14 6643 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 S 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 S 6 6979 6700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 75 78 S 6 8089 6975 275 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 79 84 S 6 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 13 16306 13842 7142 White 14
1 PM Sat 84 91 SW 13 17122 17122 10422 White 18
2 PM Sat 86 93 SW 13 17529 17529 10829 White 20
3 PM Sat 88 94 SW 13 17730 17730 11030 White 21
4 PM Sat 89 94 SW 13 17730 17730 11030 White 21
5 PM Sat 89 92 SW 13 17325 17325 10625 White 19
6 PM Sat 88 90 SW 12 16919 16919 10219 White 17
7 PM Sat 86 86 SW 12 16102 12899 6199 White 13
8 PM Sat 84 84 SW 12 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 12 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 77 77 SW 12 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 74 74 SW 12 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 S 6 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 S 6 5691 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 75 S 6 6979 6700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 76 81 S 6 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 79 85 SW 7 15895 11829 5129 White 12
1 PM Sun 82 89 SW 7 16714 16714 10014 White 16
2 PM Sun 85 92 SW 7 17325 17325 10625 White 19
3 PM Sun 87 93 SW 7 17529 17529 10829 White 20
4 PM Sun 88 93 SW 7 17529 17529 10829 White 20
5 PM Sun 89 92 SW 7 17325 17325 10625 White 19
6 PM Sun 88 90 W 7 16919 16919 10219 White 17
7 PM Sun 87 87 W 7 16306 13842 7142 White 14
8 PM Sun 84 84 W 7 14071 10558 3858 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 7 10766 8061 1361 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 77 77 W 7 7656 6816 116 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 7 6820 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 SE 8 5691 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SE 8 5253 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com