Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 8 7563 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 52 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 53 W 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 W 8 7563 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 56 W 8 9537 6700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 57 59 W 8 11150 9474 2774 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 60 61 W 8 11700 10665 3965 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 63 64 W 8 12420 11657 4957 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 11938 11381 4681 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 11938 11381 4681 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 11819 11103 4403 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 11430 10016 3316 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 6 10093 7481 781 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 8973 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SE 8 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 SE 6 10765 8899 2199 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 59 62 SE 6 11819 11103 4403 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 62 65 S 6 12662 11796 5096 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 65 69 S 6 13645 12780 6080 White 14
2 PM Wed 67 71 S 6 14066 13831 7131 White 16
3 PM Wed 70 73 S 6 14484 14484 7784 White 18
4 PM Wed 71 73 S 6 14484 14484 7784 White 18
5 PM Wed 72 73 S 6 14484 14484 7784 White 18
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 7 14275 14275 7575 White 17
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 14066 13831 7131 White 16
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 13645 12780 6080 White 14
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 12815 11914 5214 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 7 11938 11381 4681 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 7 11150 9474 2774 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SE 9 9537 6700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 54 54 SE 9 7563 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SE 9 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SE 9 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SE 9 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SE 9 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 SE 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 SE 6 8973 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 SE 6 11430 10016 3316 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 61 64 SE 6 12420 11657 4957 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 63 66 S 7 12815 11914 5214 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 66 70 S 7 13856 12932 6232 White 15
2 PM Thu 68 72 S 7 14275 14275 7575 White 17
3 PM Thu 69 72 S 7 14275 14275 7575 White 17
4 PM Thu 70 72 S 7 14275 14275 7575 White 17
5 PM Thu 70 71 S 7 14066 13831 7131 White 16
6 PM Thu 69 69 SW 7 13645 12780 6080 White 14
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 13434 12629 5929 White 13
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 7 12662 11796 5096 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 7 11819 11103 4403 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 11150 9474 2774 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 10093 7481 781 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 S 7 7563 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 S 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SW 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SW 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 SW 7 7563 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 SW 7 9537 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 57 59 SW 6 11150 9474 2774 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 59 62 SW 6 11819 11103 4403 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 62 65 SW 6 12662 11796 5096 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 64 66 SW 6 12815 11914 5214 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 65 67 SW 6 12967 12290 5590 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 66 67 SW 6 12967 12290 5590 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 6 12815 11914 5214 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 12662 11796 5096 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 11938 11381 4681 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 11700 10665 3965 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 10765 8899 2199 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 6 8973 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 E 6 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 E 6 8973 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 E 6 11150 9474 2774 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 59 62 W 6 11819 11103 4403 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 62 65 W 6 12662 11796 5096 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 64 67 W 6 12967 12290 5590 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 65 68 W 6 13434 12629 5929 White 13
4 PM Sat 67 69 W 6 13645 12780 6080 White 14
5 PM Sat 67 68 W 6 13434 12629 5929 White 13
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 5 12967 12290 5590 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 0 2 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 0 3 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 0 5 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 0 5 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 0 5 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 0 5 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 0 3 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 0 2 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 5568 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com