Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 20 20 NE 6 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 18 18 NE 6 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 18 18 NE 6 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 21 21 NE 6 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 NE 6 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 31 NE 6 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 35 37 W 1 8469 7934 1234 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 38 40 W 1 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 39 41 W 1 8617 8503 1803 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 39 40 W 5 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 39 40 W 5 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 37 37 W 5 8469 7934 1234 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 36 36 W 3 8408 7556 856 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 32 32 W 3 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 30 30 W 3 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 30 30 N 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 29 29 N 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 NE 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 35 35 NE 5 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 38 38 NE 5 8506 8193 1493 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 42 44 W 2 8938 8614 1914 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 44 46 W 2 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 45 47 W 2 9480 8920 2220 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 45 46 W 6 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 44 45 W 6 9119 8651 1951 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 6 8654 8540 1840 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 40 40 W 5 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 5 8506 8193 1493 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 36 36 W 5 8408 7556 856 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 34 34 N 5 7959 6903 203 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 32 32 N 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 31 31 N 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 31 31 NE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 NE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 30 30 NE 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 28 28 NE 5 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 NE 5 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 NE 5 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 32 32 NE 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 37 38 NE 5 8506 8193 1493 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 41 42 SW 2 8654 8540 1840 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 44 46 SW 2 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 46 48 SW 2 9777 9100 2400 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 47 48 SW 2 9777 9100 2400 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 46 47 SW 2 9480 8920 2220 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 44 44 SW 2 8938 8614 1914 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 41 41 W 5 8617 8503 1803 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 39 39 W 5 8543 8403 1703 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 36 36 W 5 8408 7556 856 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 5 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 34 34 W 5 7959 6903 203 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 33 33 W 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 33 33 SE 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SE 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 30 30 S 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 30 30 S 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 30 30 S 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 32 32 S 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 35 35 S 5 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 39 40 S 5 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 43 44 SW 6 8938 8614 1914 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 45 46 SW 6 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 47 48 SW 6 9777 9100 2400 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 47 48 SW 6 9777 9100 2400 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 45 45 SW 6 9119 8651 1951 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 43 43 W 3 8757 8577 1877 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 3 8617 8503 1803 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 38 38 W 3 8506 8193 1493 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 36 36 W 3 8408 7556 856 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 35 35 W 3 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 34 34 W 3 7959 6903 203 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 34 34 S 5 7959 6903 203 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 S 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 32 32 S 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 32 32 S 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 31 31 S 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 31 31 S 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 31 31 S 5 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 35 35 S 5 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 39 39 S 5 8543 8403 1703 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 42 43 W 3 8757 8577 1877 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 44 45 W 3 9119 8651 1951 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 45 46 W 3 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 45 46 W 3 9299 8740 2040 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 44 44 W 3 8938 8614 1914 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 43 43 W 3 8757 8577 1877 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 41 41 NW 7 8617 8503 1803 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 39 39 NW 7 8543 8403 1703 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 37 37 NW 7 8469 7934 1234 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 35 35 NW 7 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 7959 6903 203 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 33 33 NW 7 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 32 32 N 2 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 N 2 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 30 30 N 2 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 30 30 N 2 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 29 29 N 2 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 29 29 N 2 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 NE 5 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 32 32 NE 5 7188 6700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 35 36 NE 5 8408 7556 856 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 38 39 SW 3 8543 8403 1703 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 40 42 SW 3 8654 8540 1840 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 41 43 SW 3 8757 8577 1877 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 41 42 SW 3 8654 8540 1840 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 40 40 SW 3 8580 8465 1765 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 39 39 SW 3 8543 8403 1703 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 37 37 NW 3 8469 7934 1234 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 35 35 NW 3 8210 7173 473 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 33 33 NW 3 7576 6720 20 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 31 31 NW 3 6909 6700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 30 30 NW 3 6725 6700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 3 6541 6700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 28 28 SE 3 6142 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 SE 3 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 SE 3 5518 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 26 26 SE 3 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 26 26 SE 3 5407 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 SE 3 5407 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com