Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 61 61 S 14 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 S 14 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 S 14 5526 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 71 S 23 6602 6700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 73 75 S 23 15114 7140 440 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 75 78 S 23 15682 14791 8091 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 77 81 SW 26 16479 15597 8897 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 79 83 SW 26 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 80 84 SW 26 17423 16386 9686 White 15
3 PM Sun 81 85 SW 26 17628 16651 9951 White 16
4 PM Sun 82 85 SW 26 17628 16651 9951 White 16
5 PM Sun 81 82 SW 26 16745 15859 9159 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 81 81 SW 17 16479 15597 8897 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 17 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 17 7781 6700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 70 70 S 17 6330 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 17 5939 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 S 17 5939 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 S 16 5939 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 S 16 5732 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 S 16 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 14 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 14 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 S 14 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 S 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 S 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 S 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 66 S 16 5732 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 71 S 16 6602 6700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 71 74 S 16 8377 6700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 73 77 SW 20 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 77 82 SW 20 16745 15859 9159 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 78 83 SW 20 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 79 83 SW 20 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 80 83 SW 20 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 81 83 SW 20 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 80 80 SW 14 16210 15344 8644 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 77 77 SW 14 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 73 73 SW 14 7781 6700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 70 70 SW 14 6330 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 14 5939 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 SW 14 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 SE 12 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 SE 12 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 SE 12 5732 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 SE 12 5526 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SE 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 SE 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SE 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 SE 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 SE 16 5526 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 SE 16 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 71 SE 16 6602 6700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 71 74 SE 16 8377 6700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 73 78 SW 21 15682 14791 8091 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 76 81 SW 21 16479 15597 8897 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 78 83 SW 21 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 79 83 SW 21 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 81 84 SW 21 17423 16386 9686 White 15
5 PM Tue 81 83 SW 21 17100 16119 9419 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 79 79 S 13 15945 15208 8508 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 76 76 S 13 15250 7748 1048 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 71 71 S 13 6602 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 67 67 S 13 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 S 13 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 S 13 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 S 16 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 S 16 5526 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 S 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 S 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 S 16 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 S 8 5732 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 69 S 8 6056 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 72 SW 10 7163 6700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 70 75 SW 10 15114 7140 440 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 72 77 SW 10 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 74 78 SW 10 15682 14791 8091 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 75 78 SW 10 15682 14791 8091 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 75 77 SW 10 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 7781 6700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 6056 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 5526 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 65 SE 6 5629 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 69 SW 5 6056 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 71 SW 5 6602 6700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 69 74 SW 5 8377 6700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 5 15114 7140 440 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 5 15250 7748 1048 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 74 76 SW 5 15250 7748 1048 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 72 72 SW 7 7163 6700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 5939 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 S 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 S 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 S 7 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 67 S 7 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 72 SW 10 7163 6700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 70 75 SW 10 15114 7140 440 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 72 77 SW 10 15416 8334 1634 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 74 79 SW 10 15945 15208 8508 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 76 79 SW 10 15945 15208 8508 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 77 79 SW 10 15945 15208 8508 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 76 76 SW 12 15250 7748 1048 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 7163 6700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 12 5835 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 SW 12 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 S 8 5453 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com