Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SSE 3 5 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 E 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 E 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 E 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SE 2 2 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 S 3 5 12618 8917 2217 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 64 66 SW 4 6 14317 13316 6616 White 9
12 Noon Sun 67 70 WSW 4 7 15159 15159 8459 White 13
1 PM Sun 70 73 WSW 3 6 15778 15778 9078 White 15
2 PM Sun 67 68 W 1 3 14745 14745 8045 White 11
3 PM Sun 68 70 WNW 1 2 15159 15159 8459 White 13
4 PM Sun 72 74 W 2 4 15983 15983 9283 White 16
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 4 6 15778 15778 9078 White 15
6 PM Sun 70 70 NW 5 8 15159 15159 8459 White 13
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 10 14531 14120 7420 White 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 5 11 13673 10326 3626 White 6
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 8 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 1 2 8586 7475 775 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 56 56 SE 0 1 7857 6727 27 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SE 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 3 4 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 2 4 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 4 7857 6727 27 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 4 7857 6727 27 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 ENE 2 4 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 E 2 3 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 0 1 7857 6727 27 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 W 1 1 12618 8917 2217 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 61 64 W 3 3 13888 11458 4758 White 7
12 Noon Mon 67 70 W 3 4 15159 15159 8459 White 13
1 PM Mon 62 67 W 3 5 14531 14120 7420 White 10
2 PM Mon 64 68 W 3 4 14745 14745 8045 White 11
3 PM Mon 76 80 W 3 3 17209 17209 10509 White 22
4 PM Mon 64 66 W 3 5 14317 13316 6616 White 9
5 PM Mon 62 63 WNW 4 8 13673 10326 3626 White 6
6 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 7 15778 15778 9078 White 15
7 PM Mon 67 67 NNW 7 8 14531 14120 7420 White 10
8 PM Mon 61 61 NNW 6 12 11626 8564 1864 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 4 8 7109 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 NE 2 4 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 ENE 2 5 7857 6727 27 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 ENE 2 3 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 2 3 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 4 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 E 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 4 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 4 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 2 4 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 4 7109 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 3 7109 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 1 1 6319 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 SSW 1 2 8586 7475 775 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 55 57 WSW 2 5 8225 7103 403 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 74 W 3 6 15983 15983 9283 White 16
1 PM Tue 58 63 W 3 6 13673 10326 3626 White 6
2 PM Tue 60 64 WSW 2 4 13888 11458 4758 White 7
3 PM Tue 75 79 WSW 2 4 17007 17007 10307 White 21
4 PM Tue 63 65 W 2 3 14103 12438 5738 White 8
5 PM Tue 63 64 W 2 4 13888 11458 4758 White 7
6 PM Tue 72 72 WNW 3 6 15572 15572 8872 White 15
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 2 6 8943 7843 1143 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 55 55 NNW 4 8 7486 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 3 8 6342 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 2 6 6728 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 2 5 6342 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com