Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 30 30 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 SE 9 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 44 45 SE 9 6475 6700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 47 48 SE 9 7228 6700 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 48 49 S 10 7511 6721 21 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 49 49 S 10 7511 6721 21 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 49 49 S 10 7511 6721 21 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 48 48 S 10 7228 6700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 47 47 S 10 6978 6700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 46 46 S 10 6727 6700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 44 44 SE 12 6381 6700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 43 43 SE 12 6298 6700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 43 43 SE 12 6298 6700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 43 43 S 13 6298 6700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 13 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 42 42 S 13 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 43 43 S 14 6298 6700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 42 42 S 14 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 42 42 S 14 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 14 6130 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 S 14 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 14 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 S 14 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 S 14 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 S 14 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 14 6727 6700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 47 47 S 14 6978 6700 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 47 47 S 14 6978 6700 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 46 46 SW 14 6727 6700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 46 46 SW 14 6727 6700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 6475 6700 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 13 6298 6700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 42 42 SW 13 6215 6700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 40 40 SW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 SW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 SW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 W 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 31 NW 13 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 31 31 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 31 31 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 31 31 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 30 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 29 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 28 28 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 27 27 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 26 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 NW 8 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 23 23 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 24 24 NW 10 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 25 25 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 26 26 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 26 26 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 27 27 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 25 25 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 22 22 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 22 22 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 W 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 21 21 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 21 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 20 20 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 20 20 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 20 20 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 20 20 S 6 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 20 20 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 19 19 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 20 20 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 21 21 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 24 24 S 7 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 26 26 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 28 28 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 29 29 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 30 30 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 31 31 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 31 31 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 31 31 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 30 30 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 28 28 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 26 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 28 28 SW 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 31 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 35 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 37 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 37 37 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 37 37 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 36 36 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 35 35 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 33 33 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 SW 3 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 S 5 5614 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com