Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 19 19 NW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 23 23 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 25 25 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 25 25 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 27 27 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 27 27 W 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 28 28 W 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 29 29 WNW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 29 29 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 29 29 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 28 28 NW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 28 28 NW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 27 27 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 26 26 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 25 25 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 25 25 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 24 24 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 23 23 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 22 22 NNE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 22 22 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 21 21 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 21 21 ENE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 20 20 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 20 20 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 20 20 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 20 20 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 22 23 SE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 24 26 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 27 30 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 27 30 W 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 28 31 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 29 31 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 28 29 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 28 28 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 28 28 WSW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 26 26 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 24 24 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 22 22 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 22 22 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 22 22 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 23 23 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 24 24 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 24 24 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 24 24 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 25 25 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 25 25 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 25 25 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 26 26 ESE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 27 28 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 28 30 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 30 33 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 31 35 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 33 37 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 35 38 SW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 36 38 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 34 35 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 32 32 SSE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 29 29 SE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 26 26 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 22 22 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 18 18 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 23 23 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 28 28 E 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com