Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 33 33 N 5 5151 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 N 5 5151 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 N 5 5678 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 6370 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 39 S 3 7252 6700 0 White 2
11 AM Mon 40 42 S 3 7920 7356 656 White 5
12 Noon Mon 43 46 NW 5 8800 8753 2053 White 9
1 PM Mon 45 48 NW 5 9237 9237 2537 White 11
2 PM Mon 47 50 NW 5 9679 9679 2979 White 13
3 PM Mon 49 52 NW 7 10132 10132 3432 White 15
4 PM Mon 50 52 NW 7 10132 10132 3432 White 15
5 PM Mon 50 51 NW 7 9909 9909 3209 White 14
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 9455 9455 2755 White 12
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 6 9019 9019 2319 White 10
8 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 8580 8466 1766 White 8
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 8 8141 7596 896 White 6
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 8 7697 7116 416 White 4
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 8 7252 6700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 E 9 7029 6700 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 37 37 E 9 6806 6700 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 E 9 6370 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 8 5678 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NE 8 5678 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NE 8 5151 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 E 9 5151 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 E 9 5678 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 E 9 6370 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 7029 6700 0 White 1
10 AM Tue 41 42 SE 7 7920 7356 656 White 5
11 AM Tue 44 47 SE 7 9019 9019 2319 White 10
12 Noon Tue 47 50 W 5 9679 9679 2979 White 13
1 PM Tue 50 54 W 5 10560 10560 3860 White 17
2 PM Tue 53 57 W 5 11200 11200 4500 White 20
3 PM Tue 55 58 W 3 11413 11413 4713 White 21
4 PM Tue 56 58 W 3 11413 11413 4713 White 21
5 PM Tue 56 57 W 3 11200 11200 4500 White 20
6 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 10774 10774 4074 White 18
7 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 10132 10132 3432 White 15
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 7 9455 9455 2755 White 12
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 7 8800 8753 2053 White 9
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 7 8580 8466 1766 White 8
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 7 8361 8177 1477 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 8 8141 7596 896 White 6
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 8 7920 7356 656 White 5
2 AM Wed 40 40 E 8 7475 6875 175 White 3
3 AM Wed 39 39 E 8 7252 6700 0 White 2
4 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 7029 6700 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 7029 6700 0 White 1
6 AM Wed 38 38 E 9 7029 6700 0 White 1
7 AM Wed 39 39 E 9 7252 6700 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 40 40 E 9 7475 6875 175 White 3
9 AM Wed 43 43 E 9 8141 7596 896 White 6
10 AM Wed 47 48 E 9 9237 9237 2537 White 11
11 AM Wed 51 54 E 9 10560 10560 3860 White 17
12 Noon Wed 55 59 S 5 11625 11625 4925 White 22
1 PM Wed 58 62 S 5 12260 12260 5560 White 25
2 PM Wed 60 64 S 5 12675 12675 5975 White 27
3 PM Wed 62 66 S 5 13089 13089 6389 White 29
4 PM Wed 63 65 S 5 12882 12882 6182 White 28
5 PM Wed 63 64 S 5 12675 12675 5975 White 27
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 12260 12260 5560 White 25
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 3 11625 11625 4925 White 22
8 PM Wed 55 55 N 3 10774 10774 4074 White 18
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 3 10132 10132 3432 White 15
10 PM Wed 50 50 N 3 9679 9679 2979 White 13
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 3 9237 9237 2537 White 11
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 8 9237 9237 2537 White 11
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 9019 9019 2319 White 10
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 8800 8753 2053 White 9
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 8580 8466 1766 White 8
4 AM Thu 44 44 E 8 8361 8177 1477 White 7
5 AM Thu 43 43 E 8 8141 7596 896 White 6
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 7920 7356 656 White 5
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 7920 7356 656 White 5
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 8141 7596 896 White 6
9 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 8580 8466 1766 White 8
10 AM Thu 48 49 NE 5 9455 9455 2755 White 12
11 AM Thu 52 54 NE 5 10560 10560 3860 White 17
12 Noon Thu 56 58 SE 3 11413 11413 4713 White 21
1 PM Thu 59 62 SE 3 12260 12260 5560 White 25
2 PM Thu 61 63 SE 3 12467 12467 5767 White 26
3 PM Thu 62 64 SE 3 12675 12675 5975 White 27
4 PM Thu 63 64 SE 3 12675 12675 5975 White 27
5 PM Thu 63 64 SE 3 12675 12675 5975 White 27
6 PM Thu 61 61 E 5 12049 12049 5349 White 24
7 PM Thu 58 58 E 5 11413 11413 4713 White 21
8 PM Thu 55 55 E 5 10774 10774 4074 White 18
9 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 10132 10132 3432 White 15
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 9679 9679 2979 White 13
11 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 9237 9237 2537 White 11
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 E 3 9019 9019 2319 White 10
1 AM Fri 46 46 E 3 8800 8753 2053 White 9
2 AM Fri 45 45 E 3 8580 8466 1766 White 8
3 AM Fri 44 44 E 3 8361 8177 1477 White 7
4 AM Fri 44 44 E 3 8361 8177 1477 White 7
5 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 8141 7596 896 White 6
6 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 8141 7596 896 White 6
7 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 8141 7596 896 White 6
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 6 8361 8177 1477 White 7
9 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 8800 8753 2053 White 9
10 AM Fri 49 50 E 6 9679 9679 2979 White 13
11 AM Fri 53 55 E 6 10774 10774 4074 White 18
12 Noon Fri 57 60 S 3 11836 11836 5136 White 23
1 PM Fri 60 63 S 3 12467 12467 5767 White 26
2 PM Fri 62 65 S 3 12882 12882 6182 White 28
3 PM Fri 63 66 S 3 13089 13089 6389 White 29
4 PM Fri 64 66 S 3 13089 13089 6389 White 29
5 PM Fri 64 65 S 3 12882 12882 6182 White 28
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 6 12260 12260 5560 White 25
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 6 11836 11836 5136 White 23
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 6 11200 11200 4500 White 20
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 10560 10560 3860 White 17
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 10132 10132 3432 White 15
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 9909 9909 3209 White 14
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SE 5 9679 9679 2979 White 13
1 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 9455 9455 2755 White 12
2 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 9455 9455 2755 White 12
3 AM Sat 48 48 SE 5 9237 9237 2537 White 11
4 AM Sat 47 47 SE 5 9019 9019 2319 White 10
5 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 8800 8753 2053 White 9
6 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 8580 8466 1766 White 8
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 8580 8466 1766 White 8
8 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 8800 8753 2053 White 9
9 AM Sat 48 48 SE 5 9237 9237 2537 White 11
10 AM Sat 51 52 SE 5 10132 10132 3432 White 15
11 AM Sat 55 57 SE 5 11200 11200 4500 White 20
12 Noon Sat 59 62 SW 6 12260 12260 5560 White 25
1 PM Sat 62 65 SW 6 12882 12882 6182 White 28
2 PM Sat 65 68 SW 6 13501 13501 6801 White 31
3 PM Sat 66 69 SW 6 13707 13707 7007 White 32
4 PM Sat 66 68 SW 6 13501 13501 6801 White 31
5 PM Sat 65 66 SW 6 13089 13089 6389 White 29
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 7 12467 12467 5767 White 26
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 11836 11836 5136 White 23
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 7 11200 11200 4500 White 20
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 7 10560 10560 3860 White 17
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 7 10346 10346 3646 White 16
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 7 10132 10132 3432 White 15
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 S 5 9909 9909 3209 White 14
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 9679 9679 2979 White 13
2 AM Sun 49 49 S 5 9455 9455 2755 White 12
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 5 9019 9019 2319 White 10
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 5 8800 8753 2053 White 9
5 AM Sun 45 45 S 5 8580 8466 1766 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com