Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 E 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 E 7 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 SE 7 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 60 60 SE 7 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 63 64 SE 7 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 65 66 S 9 9657 8856 2156 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 66 68 S 9 11998 9371 2671 White 12
2 PM Tue 66 67 S 9 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 65 66 SW 9 9657 8856 2156 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 64 65 SW 9 9399 8503 1803 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 8880 7598 898 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 8589 7385 685 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 59 59 S 9 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 57 57 SE 7 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 SE 7 5674 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SE 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SE 8 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 SE 8 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 62 64 SE 8 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 65 67 SE 8 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 67 70 S 14 12427 9881 3181 White 14
1 PM Wed 69 72 S 14 12855 12855 6155 White 16
2 PM Wed 70 73 S 14 13068 13068 6368 White 17
3 PM Wed 70 72 S 14 12855 12855 6155 White 16
4 PM Wed 70 72 S 14 12855 12855 6155 White 16
5 PM Wed 68 69 S 14 12212 9626 2926 White 13
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 13 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 13 9399 8503 1803 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 62 62 SW 13 8589 7385 685 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 13 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 13 7181 6700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SE 8 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SE 8 5674 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SE 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SE 7 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 SE 7 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 64 67 SE 7 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 68 72 SE 7 12855 12855 6155 White 16
12 Noon Thu 71 76 SW 8 13705 13705 7005 White 20
1 PM Thu 73 79 SW 8 14341 14341 7641 White 23
2 PM Thu 75 81 SW 8 14751 14751 8051 White 25
3 PM Thu 76 81 SW 8 14751 14751 8051 White 25
4 PM Thu 77 81 SW 8 14751 14751 8051 White 25
5 PM Thu 77 79 SW 8 14341 14341 7641 White 23
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 5 13917 13917 7217 White 21
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 13068 13068 6368 White 17
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 12212 9626 2926 White 13
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 9399 8503 1803 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 8880 7598 898 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 7822 7172 472 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 6 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 7181 6700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 E 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 E 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 5674 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 59 E 7 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 62 64 E 7 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 66 70 E 7 12427 9881 3181 White 14
11 AM Fri 71 76 E 7 13705 13705 7005 White 20
12 Noon Fri 74 81 S 6 14751 14751 8051 White 25
1 PM Fri 78 85 S 6 15560 15560 8860 White 29
2 PM Fri 80 87 S 6 15962 15962 9262 White 31
3 PM Fri 81 87 S 6 15962 15962 9262 White 31
4 PM Fri 82 87 S 6 15962 15962 9262 White 31
5 PM Fri 82 85 S 6 15560 15560 8860 White 29
6 PM Fri 80 81 SW 6 14751 14751 8051 White 25
7 PM Fri 77 77 SW 6 13917 13917 7217 White 21
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 6 13280 13280 6580 White 18
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 6 12427 9881 3181 White 14
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 6 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 6 9399 8503 1803 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SE 7 8880 7598 898 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 61 61 SE 7 7822 7172 472 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 59 59 SE 7 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 57 57 SE 7 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 SE 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SE 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 8 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 SE 8 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 62 64 SE 8 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 66 70 SE 8 12427 9881 3181 White 14
11 AM Sat 70 75 SE 8 13493 13493 6793 White 19
12 Noon Sat 73 78 S 6 14129 14129 7429 White 22
1 PM Sat 75 81 S 6 14751 14751 8051 White 25
2 PM Sat 78 84 S 6 15358 15358 8658 White 28
3 PM Sat 79 84 S 6 15358 15358 8658 White 28
4 PM Sat 79 83 S 6 15156 15156 8456 White 27
5 PM Sat 78 80 S 6 14548 14548 7848 White 24
6 PM Sat 76 77 SW 8 13917 13917 7217 White 21
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 8 12855 12855 6155 White 16
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 8 11998 9371 2671 White 12
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 8 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 7822 7172 472 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 59 59 SW 8 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 S 7 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 56 56 S 7 6104 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 5674 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 S 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 S 7 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 S 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 S 8 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 S 8 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 S 8 7395 6700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 60 64 S 8 9140 7809 1109 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 63 67 SW 7 9913 9114 2414 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 65 69 SW 7 12212 9626 2926 White 13
2 PM Sun 66 70 SW 7 12427 9881 3181 White 14
3 PM Sun 67 70 SW 7 12427 9881 3181 White 14
4 PM Sun 67 69 SW 7 12212 9626 2926 White 13
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 7 11998 9371 2671 White 12
6 PM Sun 65 66 W 9 9657 8856 2156 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 9 8880 7598 898 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 7609 6959 259 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 6966 6700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 6104 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 5889 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 W 6 5674 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 W 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 6 5663 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com