Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 34 34 SW 28 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 28 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 28 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 W 25 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 30 30 W 25 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 29 29 W 25 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 28 W 31 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 26 26 W 31 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 24 24 W 31 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 22 22 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 20 20 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 18 18 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 16 16 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 14 14 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 13 13 NW 30 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 11 11 NW 29 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 9 9 NW 29 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 8 8 NW 29 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 7 7 NW 18 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 6 6 NW 18 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 6 6 NW 18 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 6 6 NW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 6 6 NW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 6 6 NW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 6 6 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 6 6 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 7 7 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 9 9 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 12 12 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 17 18 W 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 22 24 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 26 28 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 31 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 31 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 30 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 26 26 SW 3 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 23 23 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 21 21 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 19 19 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 19 19 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 19 19 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 19 19 SW 5 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 19 19 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 18 18 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 18 18 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 17 17 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 17 17 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 17 17 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 17 17 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 24 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 30 S 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 35 SW 7 8008 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 39 SW 7 10697 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 40 42 SW 7 11472 10677 727 White 6
2 PM Sun 40 41 SW 7 11249 10356 406 White 5
3 PM Sun 38 38 SW 7 10373 9950 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 36 36 SW 7 9333 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 25 25 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 26 26 S 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 27 27 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 30 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 SW 10 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 37 37 SW 9 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 39 39 SW 9 10697 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 10697 9950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 38 38 SW 9 10373 9950 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 37 37 SW 9 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 35 35 SW 9 8008 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 SW 8 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 W 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 34 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 37 SW 5 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 39 40 SW 5 11025 10032 82 White 4
1 PM Tue 41 42 SW 5 11472 10677 727 White 6
2 PM Tue 41 41 SW 5 11249 10356 406 White 5
3 PM Tue 40 40 SW 5 11025 10032 82 White 4
4 PM Tue 37 37 SW 5 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 35 35 SW 6 8008 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 SW 6 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 S 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 SW 7 7372 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SW 7 9333 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 39 SW 7 10697 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 42 42 SW 6 11472 10677 727 White 6
12 Noon Wed 45 46 SW 6 12356 12356 2406 White 9
1 PM Wed 46 47 SW 6 12576 12576 2626 White 10
2 PM Wed 46 46 SW 6 12356 12356 2406 White 9
3 PM Wed 44 44 SW 6 11916 11916 1966 White 7
4 PM Wed 42 42 SW 6 11472 10677 727 White 6
5 PM Wed 40 40 SW 6 11025 10032 82 White 4
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 6 10697 9950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 10373 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 10373 9950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 10373 9950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 37 37 SW 6 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 37 37 S 7 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 S 7 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 10045 9950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 36 36 S 7 9333 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com