Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 29 29 S 18 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 S 18 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 S 18 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 S 20 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 S 20 12228 9950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 43 45 S 20 13990 12090 2140 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 47 50 S 18 16003 14223 4273 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 49 53 S 18 18914 15710 5760 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 49 53 S 18 18914 15710 5760 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 49 52 S 15 18079 14478 4528 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 47 49 S 15 14626 14095 4145 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 46 47 S 15 14246 13430 3480 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 43 43 SW 14 13205 9950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 40 40 SW 14 9925 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 SW 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 SW 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 SW 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 SW 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 S 15 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 S 15 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 S 15 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 S 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 S 17 11840 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 43 45 S 17 13990 12090 2140 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 47 49 S 21 14626 14095 4145 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 49 51 S 21 17116 14350 4400 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 49 51 S 21 17116 14350 4400 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 48 50 S 20 16003 14223 4273 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 45 46 S 20 14118 13128 3178 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 43 43 S 20 13205 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 40 40 S 17 9925 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 S 17 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 SW 25 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 27 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 34 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 36 SW 16 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 37 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 37 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 35 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 33 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 30 30 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 SW 7 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 26 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 25 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 24 24 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 22 22 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 21 21 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 24 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 27 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 31 31 W 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 33 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 34 35 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 33 34 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 31 31 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 29 29 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 27 27 W 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 28 28 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 25 25 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 23 NW 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 22 22 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 19 19 W 6 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 22 22 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 28 29 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 30 31 N 8 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 32 34 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 33 36 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 34 37 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 34 36 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 34 35 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 34 W 14 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 NW 13 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 20 20 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 20 20 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 20 20 NW 10 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 32 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 35 N 12 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 35 38 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 36 40 NW 9 9925 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 37 41 NW 9 11840 9950 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 37 40 NW 9 9925 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 39 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 37 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 NW 9 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 W 5 7447 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com