Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 24 24 N 7 8114 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 N 7 8114 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 25 25 N 7 8114 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 NE 6 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 28 29 NE 6 9118 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 31 33 NE 6 10403 9950 0 White 2
12 Noon Mon 33 35 N 8 10851 10251 301 White 4
1 PM Mon 36 38 N 8 11519 11409 1459 White 7
2 PM Mon 37 39 N 8 11742 11742 1792 White 8
3 PM Mon 38 40 N 8 11963 11963 2013 White 9
4 PM Mon 38 39 N 8 11742 11742 1792 White 8
5 PM Mon 37 38 N 8 11519 11409 1459 White 7
6 PM Mon 36 36 N 9 11074 10643 693 White 5
7 PM Mon 34 34 N 9 10627 9950 0 White 3
8 PM Mon 33 33 N 9 10403 9950 0 White 2
9 PM Mon 31 31 N 9 9822 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 30 30 N 9 9415 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 N 9 9415 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 NE 9 9118 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 NE 9 9118 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 NE 9 9118 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 E 7 8818 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 E 7 8818 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 E 7 8516 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 E 6 8516 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 E 6 8818 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 E 6 9415 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 10179 9950 0 White 1
10 AM Tue 35 36 SE 5 11074 10643 693 White 5
11 AM Tue 38 40 SE 5 11963 11963 2013 White 9
12 Noon Tue 41 44 W 3 12838 12838 2888 White 13
1 PM Tue 43 47 W 3 13487 13487 3537 White 16
2 PM Tue 45 49 W 3 13918 13918 3968 White 18
3 PM Tue 46 49 N 3 13918 13918 3968 White 18
4 PM Tue 46 48 N 3 13702 13702 3752 White 17
5 PM Tue 45 46 N 3 13271 13271 3321 White 15
6 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 12621 12621 2671 White 12
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 12185 12185 2235 White 10
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 11963 11963 2013 White 9
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 9 11519 11409 1459 White 7
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 9 11074 10643 693 White 5
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 9 10851 10251 301 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 SE 8 10627 9950 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 33 33 SE 8 10403 9950 0 White 2
2 AM Wed 33 33 SE 8 10403 9950 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 32 32 SE 8 10179 9950 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 32 32 SE 8 10179 9950 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 31 31 SE 8 9822 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 SE 8 9822 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 SE 8 9822 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 SE 8 10403 9950 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 35 35 SE 8 10851 10251 301 White 4
10 AM Wed 39 40 SE 8 11963 11963 2013 White 9
11 AM Wed 43 46 SE 8 13271 13271 3321 White 15
12 Noon Wed 47 51 S 6 14347 14347 4397 White 20
1 PM Wed 50 54 S 6 14986 14986 5036 White 23
2 PM Wed 51 55 S 6 15195 15195 5245 White 24
3 PM Wed 52 55 S 6 15195 15195 5245 White 24
4 PM Wed 52 54 S 6 14986 14986 5036 White 23
5 PM Wed 51 52 S 6 14562 14562 4612 White 21
6 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 13918 13918 3968 White 18
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 6 13487 13487 3537 White 16
8 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 12838 12838 2888 White 13
9 PM Wed 43 43 NE 6 12621 12621 2671 White 12
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 6 12185 12185 2235 White 10
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 6 11963 11963 2013 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SE 8 11742 11742 1792 White 8
1 AM Thu 38 38 SE 8 11519 11409 1459 White 7
2 AM Thu 37 37 SE 8 11297 11029 1079 White 6
3 AM Thu 36 36 SE 8 11074 10643 693 White 5
4 AM Thu 36 36 SE 8 11074 10643 693 White 5
5 AM Thu 36 36 SE 8 11074 10643 693 White 5
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 11074 10643 693 White 5
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 11074 10643 693 White 5
8 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 11074 10643 693 White 5
9 AM Thu 38 38 E 6 11519 11409 1459 White 7
10 AM Thu 41 42 E 6 12404 12404 2454 White 11
11 AM Thu 46 48 E 6 13702 13702 3752 White 17
12 Noon Thu 50 52 NE 5 14562 14562 4612 White 21
1 PM Thu 52 55 NE 5 15195 15195 5245 White 24
2 PM Thu 53 56 NE 5 15403 15403 5453 White 25
3 PM Thu 53 55 NE 5 15195 15195 5245 White 24
4 PM Thu 53 54 NE 5 14986 14986 5036 White 23
5 PM Thu 52 53 NE 5 14775 14775 4825 White 22
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 6 14347 14347 4397 White 20
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 6 14132 14132 4182 White 19
8 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 13702 13702 3752 White 17
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 6 13054 13054 3104 White 14
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 6 12621 12621 2671 White 12
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 6 12404 12404 2454 White 11
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 5 12185 12185 2235 White 10
1 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 11963 11963 2013 White 9
2 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 11963 11963 2013 White 9
3 AM Fri 39 39 E 5 11742 11742 1792 White 8
4 AM Fri 38 38 E 5 11519 11409 1459 White 7
5 AM Fri 37 37 E 5 11297 11029 1079 White 6
6 AM Fri 36 36 SE 7 11074 10643 693 White 5
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 7 11297 11029 1079 White 6
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 7 11519 11409 1459 White 7
9 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 11963 11963 2013 White 9
10 AM Fri 43 44 SE 7 12838 12838 2888 White 13
11 AM Fri 45 47 SE 7 13487 13487 3537 White 16
12 Noon Fri 47 49 S 6 13918 13918 3968 White 18
1 PM Fri 49 52 S 6 14562 14562 4612 White 21
2 PM Fri 51 54 S 6 14986 14986 5036 White 23
3 PM Fri 52 54 S 6 14986 14986 5036 White 23
4 PM Fri 52 54 S 6 14986 14986 5036 White 23
5 PM Fri 52 53 S 6 14775 14775 4825 White 22
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 8 14347 14347 4397 White 20
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 13918 13918 3968 White 18
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 8 13487 13487 3537 White 16
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 13054 13054 3104 White 14
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 13054 13054 3104 White 14
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 12838 12838 2888 White 13
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 7 12838 12838 2888 White 13
1 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 12838 12838 2888 White 13
2 AM Sat 43 43 S 7 12621 12621 2671 White 12
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 12404 12404 2454 White 11
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 7 11963 11963 2013 White 9
5 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 11742 11742 1792 White 8
6 AM Sat 39 39 SW 8 11742 11742 1792 White 8
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 8 11963 11963 2013 White 9
8 AM Sat 41 41 SW 8 12185 12185 2235 White 10
9 AM Sat 44 44 SW 8 12838 12838 2888 White 13
10 AM Sat 46 47 SW 8 13487 13487 3537 White 16
11 AM Sat 49 51 SW 8 14347 14347 4397 White 20
12 Noon Sat 51 53 SW 8 14775 14775 4825 White 22
1 PM Sat 53 56 SW 8 15403 15403 5453 White 25
2 PM Sat 54 57 SW 8 15611 15611 5661 White 26
3 PM Sat 54 56 SW 8 15403 15403 5453 White 25
4 PM Sat 53 54 SW 8 14986 14986 5036 White 23
5 PM Sat 52 53 SW 8 14775 14775 4825 White 22
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 12 14132 14132 4182 White 19
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 12 13702 13702 3752 White 17
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 12 13271 13271 3321 White 15
9 PM Sat 45 45 W 12 13054 13054 3104 White 14
10 PM Sat 44 44 W 12 12838 12838 2888 White 13
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 12 13054 13054 3104 White 14
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SW 7 13054 13054 3104 White 14
1 AM Sun 43 43 SW 7 12621 12621 2671 White 12
2 AM Sun 41 41 SW 7 12185 12185 2235 White 10
3 AM Sun 39 39 SW 7 11742 11742 1792 White 8
4 AM Sun 38 38 SW 7 11519 11409 1459 White 7
5 AM Sun 37 37 SW 7 11297 11029 1079 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com