Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 10 9498 9950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 38 38 S 10 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 10 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 S 16 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 47 S 16 10804 9950 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 46 49 S 16 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 50 54 S 22 13393 13025 3075 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 53 58 S 22 13865 13462 3512 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 55 60 S 22 14986 13624 3674 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 58 62 S 21 15496 14559 4609 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 60 63 S 21 15805 14949 4999 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 60 62 S 21 15496 14559 4609 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 59 59 S 20 14716 13543 3593 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 57 57 S 20 13637 13380 3430 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 20 13393 13025 3075 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 18 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 53 53 S 18 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 53 53 S 18 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 S 18 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 53 53 S 18 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 52 52 S 18 13230 11969 2019 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 18 13230 11969 2019 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 50 50 S 18 12747 10790 840 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 18 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 18 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 46 46 S 18 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 48 48 S 18 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 51 51 S 21 13057 11234 1284 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 51 52 S 21 13230 11969 2019 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 51 54 S 21 13393 13025 3075 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 51 53 S 26 13311 12661 2711 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 56 59 S 26 14716 13543 3593 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 58 61 S 26 15180 13720 3770 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 57 59 SW 26 14716 13543 3593 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 55 57 SW 26 13637 13380 3430 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 54 55 SW 26 13474 13218 3268 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 15 13230 11969 2019 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 15 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 15 10804 9950 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 15 9498 9950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 43 43 W 15 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 15 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 9 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 9 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SW 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 SW 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 SW 8 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 SW 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 37 SW 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 35 SW 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 34 35 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 35 36 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 36 37 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 38 39 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 SW 13 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 W 9 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 41 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 SW 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 43 W 8 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 46 W 8 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 44 48 W 8 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 46 49 W 8 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 47 49 W 8 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 48 49 W 8 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 6 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 6 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 6 10804 9950 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 45 45 W 6 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 43 43 W 6 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 W 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 S 5 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 46 S 5 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 46 49 S 5 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 48 51 SW 7 13057 11234 1284 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 50 54 SW 7 13393 13025 3075 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 52 56 SW 7 13556 13299 3349 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 54 57 SW 7 13637 13380 3430 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 55 57 SW 7 13637 13380 3430 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 56 57 SW 7 13637 13380 3430 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 8 13556 13299 3349 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 8 13474 13218 3268 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 54 54 SW 8 13393 13025 3075 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 52 52 SW 8 13230 11969 2019 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 50 50 SW 8 12747 10790 840 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 8 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 46 46 S 8 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 9498 9950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 42 S 8 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 43 SW 7 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 43 SW 7 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 42 44 SW 7 9498 9950 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 43 45 SW 7 10029 9950 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 46 47 SW 7 10804 9950 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 12747 10790 840 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 12747 10790 840 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 12044 10574 624 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 6 11295 10000 50 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 10587 9950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 9498 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 N 6 9120 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 8051 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com