Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 43 43 S 12 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 12 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 12 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 SE 9 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 52 SE 9 10060 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 55 SE 9 14869 9976 26 White 3
12 Noon Tue 55 55 S 12 14869 9976 26 White 3
1 PM Tue 54 54 S 12 14655 9950 0 White 2
2 PM Tue 53 53 S 12 14440 9950 0 White 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 S 13 9720 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 13 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 S 13 9184 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 S 12 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 S 12 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 S 13 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 13 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 13 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 S 13 14655 9950 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 55 57 S 13 15295 15295 5345 White 5
12 Noon Wed 57 59 S 20 15721 15721 5771 White 7
1 PM Wed 57 59 S 20 15721 15721 5771 White 7
2 PM Wed 57 59 S 20 15721 15721 5771 White 7
3 PM Wed 56 58 S 20 15509 15509 5559 White 6
4 PM Wed 56 57 S 20 15295 15295 5345 White 5
5 PM Wed 55 56 S 20 15083 14284 4334 White 4
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 21 14655 9950 0 White 2
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 21 10060 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 SW 21 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SW 21 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 21 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 SW 21 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 S 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 S 10 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 S 10 10060 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 S 10 15083 14284 4334 White 4
11 AM Thu 57 60 S 10 15933 15933 5983 White 8
12 Noon Thu 58 63 SW 12 16567 16567 6617 White 11
1 PM Thu 60 65 SW 12 16989 16989 7039 White 13
2 PM Thu 62 67 SW 12 17408 17408 7458 White 15
3 PM Thu 63 68 SW 12 17615 17615 7665 White 16
4 PM Thu 63 66 SW 12 17199 17199 7249 White 14
5 PM Thu 63 65 SW 12 16989 16989 7039 White 13
6 PM Thu 61 62 W 7 16356 16356 6406 White 10
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 15721 15721 5771 White 7
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 7 15083 14284 4334 White 4
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 14440 9950 0 White 1
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 7 9720 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 7 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SE 6 9184 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 7 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 S 7 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 S 7 14440 9950 0 White 1
9 AM Fri 56 58 S 7 15509 15509 5559 White 6
10 AM Fri 60 64 S 7 16778 16778 6828 White 12
11 AM Fri 63 68 S 7 17615 17615 7665 White 16
12 Noon Fri 66 73 S 7 18656 18656 8706 White 21
1 PM Fri 67 74 S 7 18864 18864 8914 White 22
2 PM Fri 68 75 S 7 19065 19065 9115 White 23
3 PM Fri 69 75 S 7 19065 19065 9115 White 23
4 PM Fri 69 74 S 7 18864 18864 8914 White 22
5 PM Fri 69 72 S 7 18441 18441 8491 White 20
6 PM Fri 67 68 SW 8 17615 17615 7665 White 16
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 16778 16778 6828 White 12
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 8 15933 15933 5983 White 8
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 8 15295 15295 5345 White 5
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 8 14869 9976 26 White 3
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 8 14655 9950 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 S 8 14440 9950 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 52 52 S 8 10060 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 S 8 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 S 8 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 S 8 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 52 S 8 10060 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 58 S 8 15509 15509 5559 White 6
10 AM Sat 60 64 S 8 16778 16778 6828 White 12
11 AM Sat 62 67 S 8 17408 17408 7458 White 15
12 Noon Sat 64 69 S 8 17820 17820 7870 White 17
1 PM Sat 65 70 S 8 18026 18026 8076 White 18
2 PM Sat 66 71 S 8 18230 18230 8280 White 19
3 PM Sat 66 71 S 8 18230 18230 8280 White 19
4 PM Sat 66 70 S 8 18026 18026 8076 White 18
5 PM Sat 65 67 S 8 17408 17408 7458 White 15
6 PM Sat 63 64 SW 8 16778 16778 6828 White 12
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 15933 15933 5983 White 8
8 PM Sat 56 56 SW 8 15083 14284 4334 White 4
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 8 14440 9950 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 51 51 SW 8 9720 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 SW 8 9184 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SE 8 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 SE 8 8642 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SE 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SE 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 SE 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SE 8 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 S 7 14655 9950 0 White 2
10 AM Sun 55 58 S 7 15509 15509 5559 White 6
11 AM Sun 55 59 S 7 15721 15721 5771 White 7
12 Noon Sun 54 58 SW 9 15509 15509 5559 White 6
1 PM Sun 54 58 SW 9 15509 15509 5559 White 6
2 PM Sun 54 58 SW 9 15509 15509 5559 White 6
3 PM Sun 54 57 SW 9 15295 15295 5345 White 5
4 PM Sun 54 56 SW 9 15083 14284 4334 White 4
5 PM Sun 53 54 SW 9 14655 9950 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 52 53 W 10 14440 9950 0 White 1
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 10 9453 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 W 10 8914 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 W 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 10 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 S 6 8629 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com