Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 13 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 33 33 N 13 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 29 29 N 13 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 N 12 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 N 12 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 29 30 N 12 8034 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 28 30 N 12 8034 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 32 34 N 12 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 35 37 N 12 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 38 40 N 9 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 38 39 N 9 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 38 38 N 9 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 33 33 NW 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 31 31 NW 6 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 NW 6 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 SW 5 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 SW 5 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 SW 5 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 S 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 S 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 31 31 S 6 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 32 32 SW 6 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 34 34 SW 6 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 37 37 SW 6 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 37 38 SW 6 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 37 38 SE 3 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 39 40 SE 3 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 41 42 SE 3 12219 11782 1832 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 42 43 E 2 12643 11883 1933 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 41 41 E 2 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 39 39 E 2 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 37 37 SW 6 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 36 36 SW 6 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 36 36 SW 6 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 37 37 SW 6 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 38 38 SW 6 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 39 39 SW 6 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 40 40 W 10 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 40 40 W 12 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 39 39 W 12 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 38 38 W 12 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 37 37 W 12 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 37 37 W 12 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 38 39 W 12 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 40 41 W 6 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 42 44 W 6 13039 11985 2035 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 44 45 W 6 13220 12172 2222 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 45 46 W 6 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 44 44 W 6 13039 11985 2035 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 6 12219 11782 1832 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 39 39 W 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 38 38 S 8 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 S 8 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 8 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 40 40 S 8 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 41 41 S 8 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 43 44 SW 7 13039 11985 2035 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 45 46 SW 7 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 47 48 SW 7 14041 13194 3244 White 17
2 PM Thu 48 49 SW 7 14258 13373 3423 White 18
3 PM Thu 47 47 SW 7 13625 13000 3050 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 43 43 SW 7 12643 11883 1933 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 40 40 SW 5 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 47 47 SW 5 13625 13000 3050 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 5 13220 12172 2222 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 5 13039 11985 2035 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 5 12219 11782 1832 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 41 41 S 7 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 S 7 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 37 37 S 7 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 36 36 S 7 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 36 36 S 7 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 36 36 S 6 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 37 37 S 6 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 6 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 39 39 S 6 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 41 41 S 6 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 12219 11782 1832 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 44 44 SW 5 13039 11985 2035 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 45 45 SW 5 13220 12172 2222 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 46 46 SW 5 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 46 46 SW 5 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 46 46 SW 5 13401 12590 2640 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 45 45 SW 5 13220 12172 2222 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 45 45 W 6 13220 12172 2222 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 12643 11883 1933 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 12219 11782 1832 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 6 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 6 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 37 37 W 6 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 35 35 W 6 10233 9950 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 W 6 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 9604 9950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 6 10826 9950 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 40 41 W 12 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 40 41 W 12 11996 11680 1730 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 39 40 W 12 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 39 40 W 12 11894 11349 1399 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 39 39 W 12 11792 10788 838 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 38 38 W 12 11690 10198 248 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 37 37 NW 10 11396 9950 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 35 35 NW 10 10233 9950 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 10 9812 9950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 32 32 NW 10 9396 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 31 31 NW 10 9188 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 NW 10 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 NW 6 6837 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com