Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 23 23 E 2 5 8933 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 23 23 E 2 5 8933 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 22 22 ENE 2 5 8744 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 22 22 ENE 2 5 8744 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 NE 3 6 8744 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 21 21 NE 3 7 8555 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 21 21 NE 3 8 8555 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 NE 4 8 8933 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 25 NE 4 7 9479 9950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 27 28 NE 4 7 14723 9950 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 30 33 NE 4 6 15994 14922 4972 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 33 38 NE 4 5 17427 16463 6513 White 14
12 Noon Sat 36 42 NE 3 4 18285 18285 8335 White 18
1 PM Sat 37 44 NNE 4 5 18696 18696 8746 White 20
2 PM Sat 39 46 NNE 4 6 19100 19100 9150 White 22
3 PM Sat 41 47 N 4 6 19300 19300 9350 White 23
4 PM Sat 40 44 NNE 5 8 18696 18696 8746 White 20
5 PM Sat 40 42 NNE 6 10 18285 18285 8335 White 18
6 PM Sat 40 41 NNE 6 12 18071 18071 8121 White 17
7 PM Sat 38 38 SE 6 11 17427 16463 6513 White 14
8 PM Sat 37 37 WSW 6 11 17216 16081 6131 White 13
9 PM Sat 36 36 N 6 10 16949 15966 6016 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 35 35 WSW 5 8 16565 15850 5900 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 34 34 SE 4 7 16175 15373 5423 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NNE 3 5 15994 14922 4972 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 32 32 NNE 3 5 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 32 32 NNE 2 4 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 32 32 NNE 2 4 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 32 32 NE 2 3 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 32 32 NE 2 3 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 32 32 ENE 2 3 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 32 32 NE 2 3 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 32 32 NE 2 4 15878 14812 4862 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 33 34 NE 2 4 16175 15373 5423 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 36 39 NE 3 4 17642 16843 6893 White 15
11 AM Sun 39 44 NE 3 4 18696 18696 8746 White 20
12 Noon Sun 42 48 NNE 3 4 19500 19500 9550 White 24
1 PM Sun 44 51 SE 3 5 20098 20098 10148 White 27
2 PM Sun 45 52 SW 3 5 20296 20296 10346 White 28
3 PM Sun 47 53 NNW 4 5 20492 20492 10542 White 29
4 PM Sun 46 50 NW 5 8 19899 19899 9949 White 26
5 PM Sun 45 47 NW 6 10 19300 19300 9350 White 23
6 PM Sun 45 46 WNW 7 12 19100 19100 9150 White 22
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 6 10 18493 18493 8543 White 19
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 4 8 18285 18285 8335 White 18
9 PM Sun 41 41 WSW 3 5 18071 18071 8121 White 17
10 PM Sun 40 40 WSW 3 5 17857 17217 7267 White 16
11 PM Sun 40 40 SW 3 5 17857 17217 7267 White 16
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 3 5 17857 17217 7267 White 16
1 AM Mon 39 39 SW 3 6 17642 16843 6893 White 15
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 4 8 17642 16843 6893 White 15
3 AM Mon 38 38 SW 4 9 17427 16463 6513 White 14
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 4 9 17427 16463 6513 White 14
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 9 17427 16463 6513 White 14
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 9 17427 16463 6513 White 14
7 AM Mon 38 38 WSW 6 12 17427 16463 6513 White 14
8 AM Mon 39 39 W 8 15 17642 16843 6893 White 15
9 AM Mon 40 41 W 10 18 18071 18071 8121 White 17
10 AM Mon 41 43 WNW 12 19 18493 18493 8543 White 19
11 AM Mon 41 43 WNW 13 19 18493 18493 8543 White 19
12 Noon Mon 42 43 NW 14 20 18493 18493 8543 White 19
1 PM Mon 43 44 NW 14 19 18696 18696 8746 White 20
2 PM Mon 43 44 NW 13 19 18696 18696 8746 White 20
3 PM Mon 43 43 NW 13 18 18493 18493 8543 White 19
4 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 19 18285 18285 8335 White 18
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 12 19 18071 18071 8121 White 17
6 PM Mon 40 40 NNW 11 19 17857 17217 7267 White 16
7 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 9 15 17642 16843 6893 White 15
8 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 7 11 17642 16843 6893 White 15
9 PM Mon 38 38 N 5 7 17427 16463 6513 White 14
10 PM Mon 37 37 WSW 4 6 17216 16081 6131 White 13
11 PM Mon 35 35 SE 3 5 16565 15850 5900 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com