Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 35 35 SE 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SE 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SE 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 SE 13 14283 9950 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 46 49 SE 13 15162 15162 5212 White 5
11 AM Sun 48 52 SE 13 15817 15817 5867 White 8
12 Noon Sun 49 51 S 23 15600 15600 5650 White 7
1 PM Sun 50 52 S 23 15817 15817 5867 White 8
2 PM Sun 50 52 S 23 15817 15817 5867 White 8
3 PM Sun 50 52 S 24 15817 15817 5867 White 8
4 PM Sun 49 50 S 24 15381 15381 5431 White 6
5 PM Sun 49 50 S 24 15381 15381 5431 White 6
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 9 14723 9950 0 White 3
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 9 14943 14943 4993 White 4
8 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 S 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 13 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 10 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 SW 10 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 10 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 S 8 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 8 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 8 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 38 38 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 42 42 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 40 40 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 SW 2 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 W 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 38 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 38 W 12 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 39 39 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 40 40 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 41 41 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 41 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 W 14 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 42 43 SE 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 46 SW 5 14503 9950 0 White 2
1 PM Wed 45 48 SW 5 14943 14943 4993 White 4
2 PM Wed 47 50 SW 5 15381 15381 5431 White 6
3 PM Wed 48 51 SW 5 15600 15600 5650 White 7
4 PM Wed 48 50 SW 5 15381 15381 5431 White 6
5 PM Wed 47 48 SW 5 14943 14943 4993 White 4
6 PM Wed 48 49 S 5 15162 15162 5212 White 5
7 PM Wed 47 47 S 5 14723 9950 0 White 3
8 PM Wed 45 45 S 5 14283 9950 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 5 9299 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 S 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 S 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 7 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 S 7 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 S 7 14283 9950 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 46 48 S 7 14943 14943 4993 White 4
11 AM Thu 48 51 S 7 15600 15600 5650 White 7
12 Noon Thu 50 53 SW 7 16028 16028 6078 White 9
1 PM Thu 51 55 SW 7 16448 16448 6498 White 11
2 PM Thu 51 54 SW 7 16238 16238 6288 White 10
3 PM Thu 51 54 SW 7 16238 16238 6288 White 10
4 PM Thu 50 52 SW 7 15817 15817 5867 White 8
5 PM Thu 49 50 SW 7 15381 15381 5431 White 6
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 6 14943 14943 4993 White 4
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 6 14723 9950 0 White 3
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 14283 9950 0 White 1
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 6 9299 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 SW 6 14283 9950 0 White 1
11 AM Fri 46 48 SW 6 14943 14943 4993 White 4
12 Noon Fri 48 51 SW 5 15600 15600 5650 White 7
1 PM Fri 49 52 SW 5 15817 15817 5867 White 8
2 PM Fri 50 53 SW 5 16028 16028 6078 White 9
3 PM Fri 50 53 SW 5 16028 16028 6078 White 9
4 PM Fri 50 52 SW 5 15817 15817 5867 White 8
5 PM Fri 50 51 SW 5 15600 15600 5650 White 7
6 PM Fri 49 50 SW 6 15381 15381 5431 White 6
7 PM Fri 47 47 SW 6 14723 9950 0 White 3
8 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 14503 9950 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 6 9299 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 SW 6 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 SW 5 7490 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com