Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 18 18 N 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 9 9 N 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 11 11 N 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 13 13 N 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 20 20 N 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 23 24 N 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 29 30 W 3 9198 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 36 W 3 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 34 36 W 3 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 36 37 W 5 12051 10288 338 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 34 35 W 5 10602 9950 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 33 33 W 5 9963 9950 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 26 26 NW 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 24 24 NW 6 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 NW 6 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 NW 6 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 24 24 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 24 24 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 24 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 W 5 9198 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 W 5 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 39 40 W 5 13162 11972 2022 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 42 44 W 5 14426 13256 3306 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 42 44 W 5 14426 13256 3306 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 43 44 W 6 14426 13256 3306 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 41 42 W 6 13682 13036 3086 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 37 37 W 6 12051 10288 338 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 32 32 W 6 9618 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 W 6 9010 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 W 6 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 NW 7 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NW 7 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 NW 7 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 W 5 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 W 5 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 W 5 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 W 5 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 W 5 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 W 5 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 NW 3 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 NW 3 9010 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 35 NW 3 10602 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 39 40 W 5 13162 11972 2022 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 42 44 W 5 14426 13256 3306 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 43 45 W 5 14791 13620 3670 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 42 43 W 5 14056 13146 3196 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 39 39 W 5 13051 11219 1269 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 35 35 W 5 10602 9950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 32 32 W 7 9618 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 W 7 9010 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 W 7 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 W 7 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 W 12 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 W 12 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 W 12 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 W 12 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 W 12 9010 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 35 W 12 10602 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 38 39 W 12 13051 11219 1269 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 41 42 W 12 13682 13036 3086 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 42 43 W 12 14056 13146 3196 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 41 42 W 12 13682 13036 3086 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 39 39 W 12 13051 11219 1269 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 36 36 W 12 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 32 32 W 9 9618 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 30 30 W 9 9198 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 W 9 9010 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 28 28 W 9 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 27 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 W 9 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 25 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 28 W 10 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 32 32 W 10 9618 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 36 W 10 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 36 37 W 10 12051 10288 338 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 36 37 W 10 12051 10288 338 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 35 36 W 10 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 33 33 W 10 9963 9950 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 30 30 W 10 9198 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 28 28 W 10 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 26 26 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 24 24 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 24 24 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 W 10 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 23 23 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 W 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 20 20 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 19 19 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 22 22 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 26 27 NW 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 30 31 W 8 9386 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 33 35 W 8 10602 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 34 36 W 8 11283 9950 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 33 34 W 8 10305 9950 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 31 32 W 8 9618 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 28 28 W 8 8822 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 25 25 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 23 23 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 23 23 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 22 22 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 23 23 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 NW 7 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 22 22 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 21 21 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 21 21 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 21 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 W 8 8675 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com