Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SSE 1 2 8307 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 1 2 8307 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SE 0 1 8418 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 ESE 1 2 8418 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 ESE 1 1 8418 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 ESE 1 2 8418 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 SE 1 1 9922 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 SE 1 2 8307 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 2 2 9922 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 2 4 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 51 52 S 3 5 15108 12274 2324 White 5
11 AM Sun 55 57 SSW 4 6 16177 16177 6227 White 10
12 Noon Sun 56 60 SW 6 8 16815 16815 6865 White 13
1 PM Sun 57 59 WSW 8 10 16603 16603 6653 White 12
2 PM Sun 58 61 WSW 9 12 17027 17027 7077 White 14
3 PM Sun 56 57 WSW 8 12 16177 16177 6227 White 10
4 PM Sun 56 57 WSW 8 11 16177 16177 6227 White 10
5 PM Sun 59 60 W 7 10 16815 16815 6865 White 13
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 8 15964 15964 6014 White 9
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 4 5 16815 16815 6865 White 13
8 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 3 5 15964 15964 6014 White 9
9 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 2 4 15751 14884 4934 White 8
10 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 1 1 15751 14884 4934 White 8
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 1 1 15323 13214 3264 White 6
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SSW 1 2 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 50 50 S 1 2 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 1 1 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 51 51 SE 1 2 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 49 49 SE 1 2 12384 9950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 48 48 ESE 1 2 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 51 51 E 0 1 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 48 48 ESE 1 2 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 50 50 E 1 1 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 48 48 ENE 1 2 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 51 52 NE 1 2 15108 12274 2324 White 5
11 AM Mon 55 58 NNW 0 1 16390 16390 6440 White 11
12 Noon Mon 57 60 WNW 1 2 16815 16815 6865 White 13
1 PM Mon 63 67 W 4 5 18269 18269 8319 White 20
2 PM Mon 64 68 W 7 8 18479 18479 8529 White 21
3 PM Mon 63 67 WNW 9 10 18269 18269 8319 White 20
4 PM Mon 64 66 WNW 9 11 18063 18063 8113 White 19
5 PM Mon 63 64 WNW 8 10 17653 17653 7703 White 17
6 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 8 16390 16390 6440 White 11
7 PM Mon 63 63 NW 4 4 17446 17446 7496 White 16
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 2 4 15537 14066 4116 White 7
9 PM Mon 51 51 NW 2 3 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 0 1 15108 12274 2324 White 5
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 1 2 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NE 1 2 9922 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 1 2 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 1 2 12384 9950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 1 1 8307 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 0 1 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 0 1 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 0 1 8307 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 E 0 1 9922 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 0 0 11295 9950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 50 50 E 1 2 13341 9950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 50 51 NNE 0 1 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 53 56 NNW 1 1 15964 15964 6014 White 9
12 Noon Tue 58 62 NW 1 2 17238 17238 7288 White 15
1 PM Tue 62 66 NW 2 3 18063 18063 8113 White 19
2 PM Tue 64 68 NW 3 3 18479 18479 8529 White 21
3 PM Tue 63 67 WNW 4 4 18269 18269 8319 White 20
4 PM Tue 65 67 WNW 4 5 18269 18269 8319 White 20
5 PM Tue 64 65 WNW 4 5 17858 17858 7908 White 18
6 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 5 16603 16603 6653 White 12
7 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 4 5 17653 17653 7703 White 17
8 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 3 5 15751 14884 4934 White 8
9 PM Tue 51 51 NW 1 2 14206 11209 1259 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 0 1 15323 13214 3264 White 6
11 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 1 2 15108 12274 2324 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com