Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 23 23 SW 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 23 23 SW 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 SW 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 S 10 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 S 10 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 32 S 10 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 36 S 17 9281 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 38 39 S 17 9908 9950 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 40 41 S 17 10369 9950 0 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 41 42 S 18 10554 9950 0 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 41 41 S 18 10369 9950 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 40 40 S 18 10155 9950 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 38 38 S 22 9721 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 38 38 S 22 9721 9950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 37 37 S 22 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 37 37 S 22 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 37 37 S 22 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 37 37 S 22 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 37 37 S 25 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 S 25 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 36 36 S 25 9281 9950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 36 36 S 25 9281 9950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 36 36 S 25 9281 9950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 35 35 S 25 8903 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 S 28 8903 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 S 28 7538 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 S 28 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 S 24 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 S 24 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 S 24 8903 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 37 SW 22 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 38 38 SW 22 9721 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 38 38 SW 22 9721 9950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 38 38 SW 21 9721 9950 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 37 37 SW 21 9534 9950 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 36 36 SW 21 9281 9950 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 35 35 SW 16 8903 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 SW 16 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 21 21 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 22 22 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 20 20 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 21 21 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 21 21 N 15 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 21 21 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 22 22 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 22 22 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 21 21 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 20 20 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 18 18 N 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 16 16 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 14 14 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 14 14 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 13 13 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 12 12 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 12 12 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 11 11 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 11 11 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 12 12 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 11 11 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 11 11 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 11 11 NW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 10 10 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 10 10 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 10 10 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 11 11 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 13 13 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 15 15 NW 13 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 16 16 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 18 18 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 18 18 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 18 18 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 17 17 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 16 16 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 14 14 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 13 13 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 13 13 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 12 12 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 12 12 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 12 12 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 12 12 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 12 12 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 12 12 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 13 13 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 13 13 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 14 14 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 16 16 SW 12 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 17 17 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 18 18 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 18 18 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 18 18 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 18 18 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 17 17 SW 9 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 17 17 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 17 17 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 17 17 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 17 17 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 16 16 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 16 16 W 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 16 16 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 16 16 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 16 16 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 18 18 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 21 21 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 24 24 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 26 27 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 27 28 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 27 27 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 25 25 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 23 23 W 6 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 21 21 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 20 20 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 19 19 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 19 19 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 20 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 SW 7 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 21 21 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 20 20 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 19 19 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 19 19 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 19 19 S 8 7470 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com