Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 JAN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Mon 13 13 SW 8 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 12 12 SW 10 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 12 12 SW 10 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 11 11 SW 10 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 12 12 SSW 9 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 11 11 SSW 9 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 12 12 SSW 9 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 12 12 SSW 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 15 15 SSW 12 10971 9950 0 White 1
10 AM Mon 17 17 SSW 12 11374 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 18 18 S 12 11530 11098 1148 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 20 20 S 12 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 20 20 S 12 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 20 20 S 14 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 21 21 S 14 12294 11498 1548 White 7
4 PM Mon 20 20 S 14 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 20 20 SSE 14 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 18 18 SSE 14 11530 11098 1148 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 15 15 SSE 14 10971 9950 0 White 1
8 PM Mon 15 15 SSE 14 10971 9950 0 White 1
9 PM Mon 12 12 SSE 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 12 12 SSE 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 11 11 SSE 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 11 11 SSE 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 11 11 SSE 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 11 11 S 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 11 11 S 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 11 11 S 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 11 11 S 13 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 11 11 S 13 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 11 11 S 13 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 12 12 SSW 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 14 SSW 12 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 15 15 SSW 12 10971 9950 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 16 16 SSW 12 11193 9950 0 White 2
12 Noon Tue 19 19 SSW 12 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 19 19 SSW 12 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 16 16 SW 10 11193 9950 0 White 2
3 PM Tue 15 15 SW 10 10971 9950 0 White 1
4 PM Tue 16 16 SW 10 11193 9950 0 White 2
5 PM Tue 16 16 SW 13 11193 9950 0 White 2
6 PM Tue 16 16 SW 13 11193 9950 0 White 2
7 PM Tue 14 14 SW 13 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 13 13 SSW 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 13 13 S 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 13 13 S 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 13 13 S 14 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 13 13 S 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 14 14 S 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 14 14 S 15 8212 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 15 15 S 16 10971 9950 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 17 17 S 16 11374 9950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 18 18 S 16 11530 11098 1148 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 19 19 S 18 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 19 19 S 18 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 19 19 S 18 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 19 19 S 18 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 19 19 S 18 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 20 20 S 18 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 21 21 S 17 12294 11498 1548 White 7
6 PM Wed 21 21 S 17 12294 11498 1548 White 7
7 PM Wed 17 17 S 17 11374 9950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 17 17 S 16 11374 9950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 17 17 S 16 11374 9950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 18 18 S 16 11530 11098 1148 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 19 19 SSE 17 11803 11269 1319 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 20 20 SSE 17 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 20 20 SSE 17 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 21 21 SSE 16 12294 11498 1548 White 7
3 AM Thu 21 21 SSE 16 12294 11498 1548 White 7
4 AM Thu 22 22 SSE 16 12514 11777 1827 White 8
5 AM Thu 23 23 SSE 12 12731 12030 2080 White 9
6 AM Thu 23 23 SSE 12 12731 12030 2080 White 9
7 AM Thu 23 23 SSE 12 12731 12030 2080 White 9
8 AM Thu 24 24 SE 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
9 AM Thu 25 25 SE 10 13165 12533 2583 White 11
10 AM Thu 27 27 SE 10 13596 13596 3646 White 12
11 AM Thu 28 28 SSW 21 13810 13810 3860 White 13
12 Noon Thu 29 29 SSW 21 14024 14024 4074 White 14
1 PM Thu 30 30 SSW 21 14236 14236 4286 White 15
2 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 14 14236 14236 4286 White 15
3 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 14 14236 14236 4286 White 15
4 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 14 14236 14236 4286 White 15
5 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 10 14236 14236 4286 White 15
6 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 10 14236 14236 4286 White 15
7 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 10 14236 14236 4286 White 15
8 PM Thu 30 30 SSE 12 14236 14236 4286 White 15
9 PM Thu 28 28 SSE 12 13810 13810 3860 White 13
10 PM Thu 26 26 SSE 12 13382 13209 3259 White 12
11 PM Thu 25 25 SSE 12 13165 12533 2583 White 11
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 SSE 12 12948 12282 2332 White 10
1 AM Fri 24 24 SSE 12 12948 12282 2332 White 10
2 AM Fri 24 24 SSE 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
3 AM Fri 25 25 SSE 10 13165 12533 2583 White 11
4 AM Fri 25 25 SSE 10 13165 12533 2583 White 11
5 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
6 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
7 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
8 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 12948 12282 2332 White 10
9 AM Fri 26 26 S 10 13382 13209 3259 White 12
10 AM Fri 27 27 S 10 13596 13596 3646 White 12
11 AM Fri 28 28 SSW 10 13810 13810 3860 White 13
12 Noon Fri 29 29 SSW 10 14024 14024 4074 White 14
1 PM Fri 29 29 SSW 10 14024 14024 4074 White 14
2 PM Fri 29 29 SW 12 14024 14024 4074 White 14
3 PM Fri 28 28 SW 12 13810 13810 3860 White 13
4 PM Fri 28 28 SW 12 13810 13810 3860 White 13
5 PM Fri 27 27 SW 9 13596 13596 3646 White 12
6 PM Fri 27 27 SW 9 13596 13596 3646 White 12
7 PM Fri 26 26 SW 9 13382 13209 3259 White 12
8 PM Fri 26 26 SW 8 13382 13209 3259 White 12
9 PM Fri 26 26 SW 8 13382 13209 3259 White 12
10 PM Fri 26 26 SW 8 13382 13209 3259 White 12
11 PM Fri 26 26 SW 10 13382 13209 3259 White 12
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 SW 10 13165 12533 2583 White 11
1 AM Sat 25 25 SW 10 13165 12533 2583 White 11
2 AM Sat 24 24 SW 8 12948 12282 2332 White 10
3 AM Sat 24 24 SW 8 12948 12282 2332 White 10
4 AM Sat 23 23 SW 8 12731 12030 2080 White 9
5 AM Sat 23 23 SW 8 12731 12030 2080 White 9
6 AM Sat 22 22 SW 8 12514 11777 1827 White 8
7 AM Sat 21 21 SW 8 12294 11498 1548 White 7
8 AM Sat 21 21 SW 8 12294 11498 1548 White 7
9 AM Sat 22 22 SW 8 12514 11777 1827 White 8
10 AM Sat 24 24 SW 8 12948 12282 2332 White 10
11 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 9 13165 12533 2583 White 11
12 Noon Sat 25 25 WSW 9 13165 12533 2583 White 11
1 PM Sat 23 23 WSW 9 12731 12030 2080 White 9
2 PM Sat 22 22 WSW 9 12514 11777 1827 White 8
3 PM Sat 21 21 WSW 9 12294 11498 1548 White 7
4 PM Sat 21 21 WSW 9 12294 11498 1548 White 7
5 PM Sat 20 20 SW 7 12059 11365 1415 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com