Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 SW 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 SW 6 9792 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 S 7 18489 13340 3390 White 5
10 AM Tue 72 76 S 7 19575 19272 9322 White 10
11 AM Tue 73 78 S 7 19988 19612 9662 White 12
12 Noon Tue 75 82 SW 13 20802 20802 10852 White 16
1 PM Tue 77 85 SW 13 21399 21399 11449 White 19
2 PM Tue 77 85 SW 13 21399 21399 11449 White 19
3 PM Tue 77 84 SW 15 21200 21200 11250 White 18
4 PM Tue 78 84 SW 15 21200 21200 11250 White 18
5 PM Tue 77 81 SW 15 20602 20602 10652 White 15
6 PM Tue 77 79 SW 16 20193 20018 10068 White 13
7 PM Tue 71 72 SW 16 18700 14706 4756 White 6
8 PM Tue 69 69 SW 16 15182 10981 1031 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 65 65 SW 13 9792 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 13 8658 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 13 8658 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 SW 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 SW 5 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 SW 5 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 SW 5 18278 12260 2310 White 4
11 AM Wed 68 73 SW 5 18908 18610 8660 White 7
12 Noon Wed 70 74 SW 8 19139 18759 8809 White 8
1 PM Wed 72 77 SW 8 19782 19442 9492 White 11
2 PM Wed 74 79 SW 8 20193 20018 10068 White 13
3 PM Wed 75 79 SW 12 20193 20018 10068 White 13
4 PM Wed 76 79 SW 12 20193 20018 10068 White 13
5 PM Wed 75 77 SW 12 19782 19442 9492 White 11
6 PM Wed 73 74 SW 10 19139 18759 8809 White 8
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 10 18278 12260 2310 White 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 10 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 10 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 SW 13 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 SW 13 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 69 SW 13 15182 10981 1031 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 68 73 SW 13 18908 18610 8660 White 7
12 Noon Thu 70 76 SW 10 19575 19272 9322 White 10
1 PM Thu 73 80 SW 10 20399 20399 10449 White 14
2 PM Thu 75 82 SW 10 20802 20802 10852 White 16
3 PM Thu 77 83 SW 10 21001 21001 11051 White 17
4 PM Thu 78 83 SW 10 21001 21001 11051 White 17
5 PM Thu 77 80 SW 10 20399 20399 10449 White 14
6 PM Thu 77 79 SW 16 20193 20018 10068 White 13
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 16 19575 19272 9322 White 10
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 16 19139 18759 8809 White 8
9 PM Thu 72 72 SW 16 18700 14706 4756 White 6
10 PM Thu 70 70 SW 16 18278 12260 2310 White 4
11 PM Thu 68 68 SW 16 13489 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 S 8 9792 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 S 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 S 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 S 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 S 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 SW 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 SW 7 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 70 SW 7 18278 12260 2310 White 4
11 AM Fri 69 74 SW 7 19139 18759 8809 White 8
12 Noon Fri 71 78 SW 14 19988 19612 9662 White 12
1 PM Fri 73 81 SW 14 20602 20602 10652 White 15
2 PM Fri 75 83 SW 14 21001 21001 11051 White 17
3 PM Fri 76 83 SW 14 21001 21001 11051 White 17
4 PM Fri 77 82 SW 14 20802 20802 10852 White 16
5 PM Fri 77 81 SW 14 20602 20602 10652 White 15
6 PM Fri 76 78 SW 16 19988 19612 9662 White 12
7 PM Fri 74 75 SW 16 19369 18981 9031 White 9
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 16 18700 14706 4756 White 6
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 16 15182 10981 1031 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 16 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 SW 16 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 SW 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 8658 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 SW 7 13489 9950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 68 71 SW 7 18489 13340 3390 White 5
11 AM Sat 70 75 SW 7 19369 18981 9031 White 9
12 Noon Sat 73 79 SW 16 20193 20018 10068 White 13
1 PM Sat 74 80 SW 16 20399 20399 10449 White 14
2 PM Sat 76 82 SW 16 20802 20802 10852 White 16
3 PM Sat 77 83 SW 16 21001 21001 11051 White 17
4 PM Sat 78 82 SW 16 20802 20802 10852 White 16
5 PM Sat 78 81 SW 16 20602 20602 10652 White 15
6 PM Sat 77 79 SW 15 20193 20018 10068 White 13
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 15 19369 18981 9031 White 9
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 15 18908 18610 8660 White 7
9 PM Sat 70 70 SW 15 18278 12260 2310 White 4
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 15 11081 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 15 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 SW 6 8658 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 67 SW 6 12390 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 67 72 SW 6 18700 14706 4756 White 6
12 Noon Sun 70 76 W 6 19575 19272 9322 White 10
1 PM Sun 72 79 W 6 20193 20018 10068 White 13
2 PM Sun 74 81 W 6 20602 20602 10652 White 15
3 PM Sun 75 81 W 6 20602 20602 10652 White 15
4 PM Sun 76 81 W 6 20602 20602 10652 White 15
5 PM Sun 76 79 W 6 20193 20018 10068 White 13
6 PM Sun 75 77 W 8 19782 19442 9492 White 11
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 18908 18610 8660 White 7
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 18489 13340 3390 White 5
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 13489 9950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 9792 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 W 8 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 S 6 8488 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com