Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 25 25 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 23 23 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 26 26 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 30 30 S 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 33 33 S 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 36 36 S 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 34 34 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 33 33 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 31 31 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 29 29 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 28 28 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 26 26 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 28 28 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 31 31 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 31 31 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 29 29 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 28 28 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 26 26 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 25 25 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 23 23 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 21 21 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 20 20 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 20 20 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 18 18 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 20 20 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 20 20 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 20 20 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 21 21 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 21 21 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 23 23 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 22 22 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 21 21 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 19 19 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 18 18 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 17 17 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 16 16 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 15 15 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 15 15 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 14 14 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 14 14 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 13 13 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 13 13 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 13 13 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 14 14 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 14 14 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 15 15 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 16 16 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 17 17 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 18 18 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 19 19 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 21 21 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 24 24 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 27 27 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 30 30 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 30 30 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 28 28 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 24 24 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 21 21 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 20 20 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 19 19 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 19 19 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 20 20 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 21 21 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 24 24 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 29 29 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 38 38 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 36 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 33 33 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 29 29 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 24 24 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 33 33 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 32 32 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 31 31 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 29 29 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 25 25 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 24 24 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 20 20 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 18 18 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 17 17 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 16 16 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 15 15 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 15 15 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 16 16 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 18 18 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 20 20 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 22 22 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 23 23 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 23 23 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 22 22 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 21 21 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 20 20 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 18 18 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 17 17 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 15 15 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 13 13 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 12 12 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 11 11 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 10 10 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 9 9 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 8 8 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 8 8 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 8 8 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 9 9 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 9 9 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 11 11 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 12 12 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 14 14 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 16 16 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 18 18 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 20 20 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 23 24 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 23 24 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 23 23 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 20 20 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 19 19 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 17 17 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 15 15 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 13 13 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 12 12 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 11 11 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 11 11 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 12 12 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 13 13 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 14 14 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 16 16 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com