Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 55 55 S 22 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 S 22 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 S 22 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 S 26 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 S 26 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 63 66 S 26 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 64 68 SW 32 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 66 70 SW 32 18242 16827 6877 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 68 72 SW 32 19079 17681 7731 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 68 72 SW 30 19079 17681 7731 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 68 70 SW 30 18242 16827 6877 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 30 17810 16553 6603 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 23 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 23 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 23 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 SW 23 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 23 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 23 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 20 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 20 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 20 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 S 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 S 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 S 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 S 24 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 S 24 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 63 66 S 24 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 64 68 SW 25 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 67 72 SW 25 19079 17681 7731 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 68 73 SW 25 19391 18108 8158 White 13
3 PM Mon 67 71 SW 25 18664 17245 7295 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 67 70 SW 25 18242 16827 6877 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 67 68 SW 25 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 66 66 SW 16 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 16 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 16 15156 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SW 16 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 SE 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SE 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 SE 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 SE 18 15518 9950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 62 65 SE 18 16345 15458 5508 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 64 68 SW 26 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 65 70 SW 26 18242 16827 6877 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 67 72 SW 26 19079 17681 7731 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 68 72 SW 26 19079 17681 7731 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 68 71 SW 26 18664 17245 7295 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 67 69 SW 26 17810 16553 6603 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 18 16345 15458 5508 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 18 15518 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 SW 18 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 57 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 60 S 14 15156 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 63 SW 15 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 61 66 SW 15 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 62 67 SW 15 16920 16002 6052 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 63 67 SW 15 16920 16002 6052 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 63 66 SW 15 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 62 63 SW 15 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 12 15156 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 12 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 W 12 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 12 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 6 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 53 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 SW 7 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 60 SW 9 15156 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 62 SW 9 15518 9950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 59 64 SW 9 16067 15267 5317 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 60 64 SW 9 16067 15267 5317 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 60 63 SW 9 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 59 61 SW 9 15297 9950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 10 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 58 S 14 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 62 S 14 15518 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 61 66 SW 14 16624 15731 5781 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 63 68 SW 14 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 64 69 SW 14 17810 16553 6603 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 64 68 SW 14 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 65 68 SW 14 17370 16276 6326 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 65 67 SW 14 16920 16002 6052 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 63 SW 17 15793 15127 5177 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 SW 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 SW 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 SW 17 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8579 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com