Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 62 62 SW 9 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 9 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 SW 9 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 S 12 10181 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 S 12 10181 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 70 S 12 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 72 75 SW 14 17723 15907 5957 White 8
1 PM Sat 74 77 SW 14 18145 16933 6983 White 10
2 PM Sat 76 79 SW 14 18567 18354 8404 White 12
3 PM Sat 77 80 SW 14 18782 18527 8577 White 13
4 PM Sat 77 79 SW 14 18567 18354 8404 White 12
5 PM Sat 76 78 SW 14 18356 17649 7699 White 11
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 17934 16428 6478 White 9
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 16556 14813 4863 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 8 13791 9950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 7990 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 7990 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 7 6612 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 S 9 6612 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 S 9 6612 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 S 9 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 S 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 S 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 S 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 60 N 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 65 N 6 7990 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 68 N 6 12199 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 69 70 W 6 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 64 66 W 6 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 66 W 6 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 70 W 10 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 73 74 W 10 17067 15369 5419 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 10 17723 15907 5957 White 8
6 PM Sun 73 73 NW 10 16556 14813 4863 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 69 69 NW 10 13791 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 10 7990 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 NW 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 NW 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 3 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NE 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 NE 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 NE 5 10181 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 71 NE 5 15486 12005 2055 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 69 73 NW 7 16556 14813 4863 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 71 76 NW 7 17934 16428 6478 White 9
2 PM Mon 73 78 NW 7 18356 17649 7699 White 11
3 PM Mon 74 78 NW 7 18356 17649 7699 White 11
4 PM Mon 75 78 NW 7 18356 17649 7699 White 11
5 PM Mon 75 77 NW 7 18145 16933 6983 White 10
6 PM Mon 73 74 N 6 17067 15369 5419 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 70 70 N 6 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 NE 6 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 71 NE 6 15486 12005 2055 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 72 76 NE 6 17934 16428 6478 White 9
12 Noon Tue 74 78 W 3 18356 17649 7699 White 11
1 PM Tue 75 80 W 3 18782 18527 8577 White 13
2 PM Tue 76 81 W 3 19010 18699 8749 White 14
3 PM Tue 76 81 W 3 19010 18699 8749 White 14
4 PM Tue 77 81 W 3 19010 18699 8749 White 14
5 PM Tue 77 79 W 3 18567 18354 8404 White 12
6 PM Tue 75 76 NW 7 17934 16428 6478 White 9
7 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 16030 13580 3630 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 10181 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 S 5 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 S 5 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 70 73 S 5 16556 14813 4863 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 71 75 W 7 17723 15907 5957 White 8
1 PM Wed 73 78 W 7 18356 17649 7699 White 11
2 PM Wed 75 80 W 7 18782 18527 8577 White 13
3 PM Wed 76 81 W 7 19010 18699 8749 White 14
4 PM Wed 77 81 W 7 19010 18699 8749 White 14
5 PM Wed 77 79 W 7 18567 18354 8404 White 12
6 PM Wed 75 76 W 10 17934 16428 6478 White 9
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 10 7990 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 SW 6 9144 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 70 SW 6 14923 10139 189 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 70 73 SW 6 16556 14813 4863 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 72 76 W 8 17934 16428 6478 White 9
1 PM Thu 74 79 W 8 18567 18354 8404 White 12
2 PM Thu 76 81 W 8 19010 18699 8749 White 14
3 PM Thu 78 82 W 8 19239 19051 9101 White 15
4 PM Thu 78 81 W 8 19010 18699 8749 White 14
5 PM Thu 77 79 W 8 18567 18354 8404 White 12
6 PM Thu 75 76 W 13 17934 16428 6478 White 9
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 13 15486 12005 2055 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 10181 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 6612 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 13 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 13 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 6404 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com