Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 70 70 S 14 7169 5563 1188 White 6
7 AM Tue 68 68 S 14 6734 4797 422 White 4
8 AM Tue 67 67 S 14 6516 4375 0 White 3
9 AM Tue 67 67 S 14 6516 4375 0 White 3
10 AM Tue 69 70 S 14 7169 5563 1188 White 6
11 AM Tue 72 74 S 14 8035 8035 3660 White 10
12 Noon Tue 75 79 SW 8 9107 9107 4732 White 15
1 PM Tue 78 82 SW 8 9736 9736 5361 White 18
2 PM Tue 79 83 SW 8 9950 9950 5575 White 19
3 PM Tue 80 84 SW 8 10182 10182 5807 White 20
4 PM Tue 81 84 SW 8 10182 10182 5807 White 20
5 PM Tue 82 83 SW 8 9950 9950 5575 White 19
6 PM Tue 82 82 W 12 9736 9736 5361 White 18
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 12 9527 9527 5152 White 17
8 PM Tue 79 79 W 12 9107 9107 4732 White 15
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 12 8467 8467 4092 White 12
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 12 7819 7819 3444 White 9
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 7169 5563 1188 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 E 6 6516 4375 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 6 4819 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 63 63 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 E 9 4819 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 68 68 E 9 6734 4797 422 White 4
10 AM Wed 72 74 E 9 8035 8035 3660 White 10
11 AM Wed 75 78 E 9 8896 8896 4521 White 14
12 Noon Wed 78 82 S 7 9736 9736 5361 White 18
1 PM Wed 81 86 S 7 10594 10594 6219 White 22
2 PM Wed 83 88 S 7 11006 11006 6631 White 24
3 PM Wed 85 89 S 7 11211 11211 6836 White 25
4 PM Wed 86 89 S 7 11211 11211 6836 White 25
5 PM Wed 86 88 S 7 11006 11006 6631 White 24
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 14 10388 10388 6013 White 21
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 14 9950 9950 5575 White 19
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 14 9527 9527 5152 White 17
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 14 8896 8896 4521 White 14
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 14 8035 8035 3660 White 10
11 PM Wed 71 71 SW 14 7386 7386 3011 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 SE 9 6734 4797 422 White 4
1 AM Thu 65 65 SE 9 4819 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 63 63 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 E 9 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 E 9 6516 4375 0 White 3
9 AM Thu 70 70 E 9 7169 5563 1188 White 6
10 AM Thu 74 75 E 9 8251 8251 3876 White 11
11 AM Thu 77 80 E 9 9317 9317 4942 White 16
12 Noon Thu 80 83 S 9 9950 9950 5575 White 19
1 PM Thu 83 86 S 9 10594 10594 6219 White 22
2 PM Thu 84 87 S 9 10800 10800 6425 White 23
3 PM Thu 86 89 S 9 11211 11211 6836 White 25
4 PM Thu 86 88 S 9 11006 11006 6631 White 24
5 PM Thu 86 87 S 9 10800 10800 6425 White 23
6 PM Thu 85 85 SW 14 10388 10388 6013 White 21
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 14 9950 9950 5575 White 19
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 14 9527 9527 5152 White 17
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 14 8896 8896 4521 White 14
10 PM Thu 75 75 SW 14 8251 8251 3876 White 11
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 14 7603 7603 3228 White 8
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 S 8 6952 5185 810 White 5
1 AM Fri 67 67 S 8 6516 4375 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 64 64 S 8 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 E 8 4819 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 6734 4797 422 White 4
10 AM Fri 71 72 E 8 7603 7603 3228 White 8
11 AM Fri 74 76 E 8 8467 8467 4092 White 12
12 Noon Fri 77 81 SW 7 9527 9527 5152 White 17
1 PM Fri 80 84 SW 7 10182 10182 5807 White 20
2 PM Fri 82 86 SW 7 10594 10594 6219 White 22
3 PM Fri 83 87 SW 7 10800 10800 6425 White 23
4 PM Fri 84 87 SW 7 10800 10800 6425 White 23
5 PM Fri 84 85 SW 7 10388 10388 6013 White 21
6 PM Fri 83 83 W 10 9950 9950 5575 White 19
7 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 9736 9736 5361 White 18
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 10 9317 9317 4942 White 16
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 8681 8681 4306 White 13
10 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 8035 8035 3660 White 10
11 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 7603 7603 3228 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 NE 9 6952 5185 810 White 5
1 AM Sat 66 66 NE 9 5207 4375 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 63 63 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 NE 9 4819 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 68 68 NE 9 6734 4797 422 White 4
10 AM Sat 71 73 NE 9 7819 7819 3444 White 9
11 AM Sat 75 78 NE 9 8896 8896 4521 White 14
12 Noon Sat 78 82 W 5 9736 9736 5361 White 18
1 PM Sat 80 85 W 5 10388 10388 6013 White 21
2 PM Sat 83 88 W 5 11006 11006 6631 White 24
3 PM Sat 84 88 W 5 11006 11006 6631 White 24
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 5 11006 11006 6631 White 24
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 5 10800 10800 6425 White 23
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 10 10182 10182 5807 White 20
7 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 0 4 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 0 5 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 0 6 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 0 6 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 0 5 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 0 4 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 0 1 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com