Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 SW 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 SW 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 60 60 W 16 3681 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 W 16 4341 4375 0 White 13
1 PM Fri 65 66 W 16 4985 4985 610 White 18
2 PM Fri 66 66 W 20 4985 4985 610 White 18
3 PM Fri 66 66 W 20 4985 4985 610 White 18
4 PM Fri 65 65 W 20 4768 4768 393 White 17
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 18 4341 4375 0 White 13
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 18 3681 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 18 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 20 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 20 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 N 20 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 50 53 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 53 55 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 55 57 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 57 58 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 56 58 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 58 60 E 6 3681 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 60 61 E 6 3901 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 E 6 3901 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 SE 2 3681 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 S 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 56 57 S 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 58 59 S 2 3460 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 60 60 S 2 3681 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 S 2 4121 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 62 62 S 2 4121 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 W 2 3901 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 56 57 SE 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 59 60 SE 2 3681 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 62 63 SE 2 4341 4375 0 White 13
2 PM Tue 64 65 SE 2 4768 4768 393 White 17
3 PM Tue 66 66 SE 2 4985 4985 610 White 18
4 PM Tue 66 66 SE 2 4985 4985 610 White 18
5 PM Tue 65 65 SW 2 4768 4768 393 White 17
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 2 4121 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 SW 2 3460 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 58 59 E 3 3460 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 62 64 E 3 4553 4553 178 White 16
1 PM Wed 65 67 E 3 5203 5203 828 White 19
2 PM Wed 67 68 E 3 5420 5420 1045 White 20
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 3 5636 5636 1261 White 20
4 PM Wed 69 69 E 3 5636 5636 1261 White 20
5 PM Wed 68 68 S 2 5420 5420 1045 White 20
6 PM Wed 65 65 S 2 4768 4768 393 White 17
7 PM Wed 61 61 S 2 3901 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 S 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 S 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 S 2 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com