Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 80 80 NE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 78 78 NE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 79 NE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 83 84 SW 2 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 88 90 SW 2 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 92 96 SW 2 9833 6545 2170 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 94 97 W 7 13636 7723 3348 White 15
1 PM Sat 97 101 W 7 14471 12404 8029 White 19
2 PM Sat 97 101 W 7 14471 12404 8029 White 19
3 PM Sat 97 100 W 9 14262 10668 6293 White 18
4 PM Sat 97 100 W 9 14262 10668 6293 White 18
5 PM Sat 96 98 W 9 13846 8744 4369 White 16
6 PM Sat 92 92 SW 13 6117 5374 999 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 91 91 SW 13 5755 5116 741 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 90 90 SW 13 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 88 88 SE 10 5151 4427 52 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 86 86 SE 10 4499 4375 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 85 85 SE 10 4430 4375 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 SE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 82 82 SE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 82 82 SE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 81 81 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 80 80 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 79 79 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 79 79 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 77 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 81 SW 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 85 87 SW 2 4568 4375 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 87 90 SW 2 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 91 95 W 6 8907 6088 1713 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 94 99 W 6 14054 9659 5284 White 17
2 PM Sun 96 101 W 6 14471 12404 8029 White 19
3 PM Sun 97 102 W 6 14678 13687 9312 White 20
4 PM Sun 98 102 W 6 14678 13687 9312 White 20
5 PM Sun 98 101 W 6 14471 12404 8029 White 19
6 PM Sun 97 98 W 8 13846 8744 4369 White 16
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 8 9833 6545 2170 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 94 94 W 8 7871 5734 1359 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 91 91 W 8 5755 5116 741 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 88 88 W 8 5151 4427 52 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 84 84 W 8 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 79 79 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 78 78 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 77 77 N 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 77 77 N 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 78 N 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 81 N 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 84 87 N 2 4568 4375 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 89 93 N 2 6672 5554 1179 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 93 98 W 3 13846 8744 4369 White 16
1 PM Mon 97 103 W 3 14883 14757 10382 White 21
2 PM Mon 99 105 W 3 15286 15286 10911 White 23
3 PM Mon 100 105 W 3 15286 15286 10911 White 23
4 PM Mon 100 104 W 3 15084 15084 10709 White 22
5 PM Mon 99 102 W 3 14678 13687 9312 White 20
6 PM Mon 98 100 W 8 14262 10668 6293 White 18
7 PM Mon 97 97 W 8 13636 7723 3348 White 15
8 PM Mon 95 95 W 8 8907 6088 1713 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 93 93 W 8 6672 5554 1179 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 90 90 W 8 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 87 87 W 8 4568 4375 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 85 85 N 6 4430 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 84 84 N 6 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 83 83 N 6 4291 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 82 82 N 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 81 81 N 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 79 79 N 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 78 78 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 79 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 83 NE 6 4291 4375 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 86 88 NE 6 5151 4427 52 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 91 95 NE 6 8907 6088 1713 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 95 100 S 2 14262 10668 6293 White 18
1 PM Tue 98 104 S 2 15084 15084 10709 White 22
2 PM Tue 100 106 S 2 15487 15487 11112 White 24
3 PM Tue 102 107 S 2 15687 15687 11312 White 25
4 PM Tue 102 106 S 2 15487 15487 11112 White 24
5 PM Tue 101 104 S 2 15084 15084 10709 White 22
6 PM Tue 100 101 W 8 14471 12404 8029 White 19
7 PM Tue 99 99 W 8 14054 9659 5284 White 17
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 8 9833 6545 2170 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 93 93 W 8 6672 5554 1179 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 90 90 W 8 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 86 86 W 8 4499 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 NE 5 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 82 82 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 81 81 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 81 81 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 80 80 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 79 79 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 78 78 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 79 79 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 80 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 83 84 E 5 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 87 90 E 5 5566 4565 190 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 92 96 E 5 9833 6545 2170 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 96 101 SW 3 14471 12404 8029 White 19
1 PM Wed 99 105 SW 3 15286 15286 10911 White 23
2 PM Wed 101 107 SW 3 15687 15687 11312 White 25
3 PM Wed 103 108 SW 3 15887 15887 11512 White 26
4 PM Wed 103 107 SW 3 15687 15687 11312 White 25
5 PM Wed 103 106 SW 3 15487 15487 11112 White 24
6 PM Wed 101 103 W 10 14883 14757 10382 White 21
7 PM Wed 99 99 W 10 14054 9659 5284 White 17
8 PM Wed 96 96 W 10 9833 6545 2170 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 93 93 W 10 6672 5554 1179 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 89 89 W 10 5385 4496 121 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 86 86 W 10 4499 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 E 3 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 82 82 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 81 81 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 80 80 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 78 78 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 77 77 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 77 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 81 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 85 E 5 4430 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 87 89 E 5 5385 4496 121 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 90 94 E 5 7871 5734 1359 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 94 99 SW 5 14054 9659 5284 White 17
1 PM Thu 97 103 SW 5 14883 14757 10382 White 21
2 PM Thu 100 106 SW 5 15487 15487 11112 White 24
3 PM Thu 102 108 SW 5 15887 15887 11512 White 26
4 PM Thu 102 106 SW 5 15487 15487 11112 White 24
5 PM Thu 101 104 SW 5 15084 15084 10709 White 22
6 PM Thu 99 101 W 10 14471 12404 8029 White 19
7 PM Thu 97 97 W 10 13636 7723 3348 White 15
8 PM Thu 95 95 W 10 8907 6088 1713 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 92 92 W 10 6117 5374 999 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 89 89 W 10 5385 4496 121 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 87 87 W 10 4568 4375 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 E 1 4361 4375 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 83 83 E 1 4291 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 82 82 E 1 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 81 81 E 1 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 79 79 E 1 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 E 1 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com