Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 NNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 35 35 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 ESE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 29 29 N 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 30 30 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 32 33 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 36 38 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 39 42 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 42 46 WSW 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 44 48 WSW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 45 49 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 47 50 WNW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 45 46 WNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 43 43 NW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 34 34 N 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 32 32 N 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 29 29 N 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 N 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 27 27 N 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 28 28 N 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 28 28 N 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 26 26 N 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 24 24 N 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 22 22 N 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 26 26 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 29 29 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 32 33 N 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 35 37 NNE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 38 41 NNE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 41 45 NE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 43 47 NE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 45 49 NNE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 47 50 NNE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 45 46 SE 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 42 42 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 39 39 N 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 39 39 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 38 38 SE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 38 38 NNE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 37 37 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 36 36 NNE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 32 32 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 32 32 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 37 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 39 41 NE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 45 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 46 50 E 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 52 ESE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 51 55 SE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 56 SE 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 51 52 SE 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 ESE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 ESE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 E 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 45 45 E 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 44 44 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 44 44 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 43 ENE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com