Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 3617 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 NE 6 5176 4873 498 White 12
11 AM Wed 60 62 SW 3 6088 5376 1001 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 65 68 SW 3 7797 7797 3422 White 24
1 PM Wed 67 70 SW 3 8226 8226 3851 White 26
2 PM Wed 70 72 W 3 8652 8652 4277 White 28
3 PM Wed 70 71 W 3 8440 8440 4065 White 27
4 PM Wed 70 70 W 3 8226 8226 3851 White 26
5 PM Wed 68 68 W 3 7797 7797 3422 White 24
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 3 5622 5317 942 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 3 5320 5140 765 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 57 57 NE 6 5261 5011 636 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 56 56 NE 6 5176 4873 498 White 12
10 PM Wed 54 54 NE 6 4725 4610 235 White 10
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 7 4497 4493 118 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 7 4497 4493 118 White 9
1 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 4277 4375 0 White 8
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 6 3617 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 3 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 3617 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 56 56 NE 3 5176 4873 498 White 12
11 AM Thu 62 63 S 2 6623 5435 1060 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 66 67 S 2 7581 7110 2735 White 23
1 PM Thu 69 70 S 2 8226 8226 3851 White 26
2 PM Thu 70 71 S 5 8440 8440 4065 White 27
3 PM Thu 71 71 S 5 8440 8440 4065 White 27
4 PM Thu 71 71 S 5 8440 8440 4065 White 27
5 PM Thu 69 69 S 3 8011 8011 3636 White 25
6 PM Thu 66 66 S 3 7366 6569 2194 White 22
7 PM Thu 63 63 S 3 6623 5435 1060 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 60 60 S 3 5443 5258 883 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 59 59 S 3 5379 5199 824 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 58 58 S 3 5320 5140 765 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 57 57 E 5 5261 5011 636 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 E 5 5176 4873 498 White 12
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 4953 4741 366 White 11
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 4725 4610 235 White 10
3 AM Fri 53 53 E 5 4497 4493 118 White 9
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 5 4057 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 3617 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 4277 4375 0 White 8
10 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 5320 5140 765 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 64 65 S 5 7151 6041 1666 White 21
12 Noon Fri 67 68 S 5 7797 7797 3422 White 24
1 PM Fri 69 70 S 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
2 PM Fri 70 71 S 5 8440 8440 4065 White 27
3 PM Fri 70 70 S 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
4 PM Fri 69 69 S 5 8011 8011 3636 White 25
5 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 7581 7110 2735 White 23
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 6935 5609 1234 White 20
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 5622 5317 942 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 5 5379 5199 824 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 5 5261 5011 636 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 5 5176 4873 498 White 12
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 5176 4873 498 White 12
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NE 5 4725 4610 235 White 10
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4497 4493 118 White 9
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 4057 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 3838 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3617 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 3838 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 5 5261 5011 636 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 62 64 NE 5 6935 5609 1234 White 20
12 Noon Sat 66 69 NE 5 8011 8011 3636 White 25
1 PM Sat 68 70 NE 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
2 PM Sat 69 71 NE 5 8440 8440 4065 White 27
3 PM Sat 69 70 NE 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
4 PM Sat 68 68 NE 5 7797 7797 3422 White 24
5 PM Sat 65 65 N 12 7151 6041 1666 White 21
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 12 6935 5609 1234 White 20
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 12 5622 5317 942 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 12 5320 5140 765 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 12 4953 4741 366 White 11
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 12 4277 4375 0 White 8
11 PM Sat 49 49 NE 10 3617 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 13 4057 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 54 55 NE 13 4953 4741 366 White 11
11 AM Sun 58 60 E 5 5443 5258 883 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 5 6088 5376 1001 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 5 6935 5609 1234 White 20
2 PM Sun 64 66 E 5 7366 6569 2194 White 22
3 PM Sun 65 66 E 5 7366 6569 2194 White 22
4 PM Sun 65 65 E 5 7151 6041 1666 White 21
5 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 6935 5609 1234 White 20
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 6623 5435 1060 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 61 61 N 5 5622 5317 942 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 5379 5199 824 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 5176 4873 498 White 12
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 4497 4493 118 White 9
11 PM Sun 50 50 NE 8 3838 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 3838 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 4725 4610 235 White 10
10 AM Mon 58 59 NE 6 5379 5199 824 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 62 64 SE 5 6935 5609 1234 White 20
12 Noon Mon 65 67 SE 5 7581 7110 2735 White 23
1 PM Mon 67 69 SE 5 8011 8011 3636 White 25
2 PM Mon 68 70 SE 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
3 PM Mon 69 70 SE 5 8226 8226 3851 White 26
4 PM Mon 69 69 SE 5 8011 8011 3636 White 25
5 PM Mon 68 68 NW 3 7797 7797 3422 White 24
6 PM Mon 66 66 NW 3 7366 6569 2194 White 22
7 PM Mon 63 63 NW 3 6623 5435 1060 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 3 5443 5258 883 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 5261 5011 636 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 3 4497 4493 118 White 9
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 7 3838 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com