Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SE 10 14 6858 6199 1824 White 13
1 AM Sun 71 71 SE 10 14 6640 5970 1595 White 12
2 AM Sun 70 70 SE 10 14 6422 5741 1366 White 11
3 AM Sun 69 69 ESE 9 11 6202 5511 1136 White 10
4 AM Sun 68 68 ESE 9 11 5982 5280 905 White 9
5 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 9 11 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 6 9 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 64 64 ESE 6 9 5075 4675 300 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 63 63 ESE 6 9 4875 4455 80 White 4
9 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 4 9 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 71 71 ESE 4 9 6640 5970 1595 White 12
11 AM Sun 73 74 ESE 4 9 7294 6852 2477 White 15
12 Noon Sun 76 77 N 10 16 7944 7910 3535 White 17
1 PM Sun 78 79 N 10 16 8376 8376 4001 White 19
2 PM Sun 79 80 N 10 16 8591 8591 4216 White 20
3 PM Sun 80 82 ESE 10 17 9019 9019 4644 White 22
4 PM Sun 81 82 ESE 10 17 9019 9019 4644 White 22
5 PM Sun 80 80 ESE 10 17 8591 8591 4216 White 20
6 PM Sun 82 82 S 10 16 9019 9019 4644 White 22
7 PM Sun 79 79 S 10 16 8376 8376 4001 White 19
8 PM Sun 77 77 S 10 16 7944 7910 3535 White 17
9 PM Sun 73 73 ESE 8 11 7076 6491 2116 White 14
10 PM Sun 72 72 ESE 8 11 6858 6199 1824 White 13
11 PM Sun 70 70 ESE 8 11 6422 5741 1366 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 ESE 10 13 6422 5741 1366 White 11
1 AM Mon 69 69 ESE 10 13 6202 5511 1136 White 10
2 AM Mon 68 68 ESE 10 13 5982 5280 905 White 9
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 8 11 5758 5066 691 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 66 66 E 8 11 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 8 11 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 65 65 E 6 10 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 63 63 E 6 10 4875 4455 80 White 4
8 AM Mon 63 63 E 6 10 4875 4455 80 White 4
9 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 4 6 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 70 71 ENE 4 6 6640 5970 1595 White 12
11 AM Mon 73 75 ENE 4 6 7511 7209 2834 White 15
12 Noon Mon 78 81 WSW 5 8 8805 8805 4430 White 21
1 PM Mon 82 85 WSW 5 8 9666 9666 5291 White 25
2 PM Mon 84 87 WSW 5 8 10097 10097 5722 White 27
3 PM Mon 84 87 WSW 8 11 10097 10097 5722 White 27
4 PM Mon 84 86 WSW 8 11 9882 9882 5507 White 26
5 PM Mon 83 84 WSW 8 11 9451 9451 5076 White 24
6 PM Mon 82 82 N 9 13 9019 9019 4644 White 22
7 PM Mon 80 80 N 9 13 8591 8591 4216 White 20
8 PM Mon 77 77 N 9 13 7944 7910 3535 White 17
9 PM Mon 75 75 ENE 8 11 7511 7209 2834 White 15
10 PM Mon 73 73 ENE 8 11 7076 6491 2116 White 14
11 PM Mon 72 72 ENE 8 11 6858 6199 1824 White 13
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 ENE 8 11 6422 5741 1366 White 11
1 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 8 11 6202 5511 1136 White 10
2 AM Tue 67 67 ENE 8 11 5758 5066 691 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 8 11 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 8 11 5075 4675 300 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 8 11 4875 4455 80 White 4
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 8 11 4646 4375 0 White 3
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 8 11 4646 4375 0 White 3
8 AM Tue 63 63 NE 8 11 4875 4455 80 White 4
9 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 6 10 5075 4675 300 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 68 69 ENE 6 10 6202 5511 1136 White 10
11 AM Tue 73 76 ENE 6 10 7728 7562 3187 White 16
12 Noon Tue 77 81 N 5 8 8805 8805 4430 White 21
1 PM Tue 80 85 N 5 8 9666 9666 5291 White 25
2 PM Tue 82 87 N 5 8 10097 10097 5722 White 27
3 PM Tue 84 88 WNW 8 13 10308 10308 5933 White 28
4 PM Tue 85 88 WNW 8 13 10308 10308 5933 White 28
5 PM Tue 86 87 WNW 8 13 10097 10097 5722 White 27
6 PM Tue 85 85 NW 9 14 9666 9666 5291 White 25
7 PM Tue 82 82 NW 9 14 9019 9019 4644 White 22
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 9 14 8160 8160 3785 White 18
9 PM Tue 74 74 NNE 10 14 7294 6852 2477 White 15
10 PM Tue 71 71 NNE 10 14 6640 5970 1595 White 12
11 PM Tue 70 70 NNE 10 14 6422 5741 1366 White 11
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NE 10 13 5982 5280 905 White 9
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 10 13 5758 5066 691 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 65 65 NE 10 13 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 64 64 NE 10 13 5075 4675 300 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 62 62 NE 10 13 4646 4375 0 White 3
5 AM Wed 61 61 NE 10 13 4421 4375 0 White 2
6 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 10 13 4197 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 ENE 10 13 3973 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 10 13 4197 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 ENE 8 11 4646 4375 0 White 3
10 AM Wed 67 68 ENE 8 11 5982 5280 905 White 9
11 AM Wed 73 76 ENE 8 11 7728 7562 3187 White 16
12 Noon Wed 78 82 E 5 9 9019 9019 4644 White 22
1 PM Wed 82 87 E 5 9 10097 10097 5722 White 27
2 PM Wed 84 89 E 5 9 10513 10513 6138 White 29
3 PM Wed 85 89 SSW 9 13 10513 10513 6138 White 29
4 PM Wed 85 88 SSW 9 13 10308 10308 5933 White 28
5 PM Wed 85 86 SSW 9 13 9882 9882 5507 White 26
6 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 13 9235 9235 4860 White 23
7 PM Wed 81 81 NW 8 13 8805 8805 4430 White 21
8 PM Wed 78 78 NW 8 13 8160 8160 3785 White 18
9 PM Wed 75 75 NE 8 11 7511 7209 2834 White 15
10 PM Wed 73 73 NE 8 11 7076 6491 2116 White 14
11 PM Wed 71 71 NE 8 11 6640 5970 1595 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 ENE 9 13 6202 5511 1136 White 10
1 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 9 13 5982 5280 905 White 9
2 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 9 13 5526 4904 529 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 65 65 ENE 10 13 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 10 13 4875 4455 80 White 4
5 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 10 13 4421 4375 0 White 2
6 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 9 14 4197 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 9 14 4197 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 9 14 4421 4375 0 White 2
9 AM Thu 63 63 E 8 11 4875 4455 80 White 4
10 AM Thu 67 68 E 8 11 5982 5280 905 White 9
11 AM Thu 72 75 E 8 11 7511 7209 2834 White 15
12 Noon Thu 77 81 ESE 6 10 8805 8805 4430 White 21
1 PM Thu 80 85 ESE 6 10 9666 9666 5291 White 25
2 PM Thu 83 88 ESE 6 10 10308 10308 5933 White 28
3 PM Thu 84 88 SE 8 13 10308 10308 5933 White 28
4 PM Thu 85 88 SE 8 13 10308 10308 5933 White 28
5 PM Thu 86 87 SE 8 13 10097 10097 5722 White 27
6 PM Thu 85 85 SSE 8 13 9666 9666 5291 White 25
7 PM Thu 82 82 SSE 8 13 9019 9019 4644 White 22
8 PM Thu 78 78 SSE 8 13 8160 8160 3785 White 18
9 PM Thu 74 74 ENE 6 11 7294 6852 2477 White 15
10 PM Thu 72 72 ENE 6 11 6858 6199 1824 White 13
11 PM Thu 71 71 ENE 6 11 6640 5970 1595 White 12
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 ENE 8 11 6422 5741 1366 White 11
1 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 8 11 5982 5280 905 White 9
2 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 8 11 5758 5066 691 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 65 65 E 9 11 5293 4789 414 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 9 11 4875 4455 80 White 4
5 AM Fri 62 62 E 9 11 4646 4375 0 White 3
6 AM Fri 61 61 E 9 13 4421 4375 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 61 61 E 9 13 4421 4375 0 White 2
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 9 13 4421 4375 0 White 2
9 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 11 4875 4455 80 White 4
10 AM Fri 67 68 E 8 11 5982 5280 905 White 9
11 AM Fri 72 75 E 8 11 7511 7209 2834 White 15
12 Noon Fri 77 81 SE 5 9 8805 8805 4430 White 21
1 PM Fri 80 85 SE 5 9 9666 9666 5291 White 25
2 PM Fri 82 87 SE 5 9 10097 10097 5722 White 27
3 PM Fri 83 87 WSW 8 13 10097 10097 5722 White 27
4 PM Fri 84 87 WSW 8 13 10097 10097 5722 White 27
5 PM Fri 85 86 WSW 8 13 9882 9882 5507 White 26
6 PM Fri 84 84 W 5 10 9451 9451 5076 White 24
7 PM Fri 82 82 W 5 10 9019 9019 4644 White 22
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 10 8160 8160 3785 White 18
9 PM Fri 75 75 ENE 6 10 7511 7209 2834 White 15
10 PM Fri 73 73 ENE 6 10 7076 6491 2116 White 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com