Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 NE 5 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 61 63 NE 5 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 66 69 SW 6 8791 6484 2109 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 69 73 SW 6 12361 10314 5939 White 18
2 PM Tue 71 75 SW 6 12770 12065 7690 White 20
3 PM Tue 73 76 SW 8 12974 12974 8599 White 21
4 PM Tue 74 76 SW 8 12974 12974 8599 White 21
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 8 12567 11828 7453 White 19
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 12361 10314 5939 White 18
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 8 12157 8371 3996 White 18
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 8 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 63 63 N 0 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 0 5523 5037 662 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 0 5205 4786 411 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 E 6 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 4791 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 E 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 E 2 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 63 66 E 2 6521 5670 1295 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 66 69 SW 12 8791 6484 2109 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 68 72 SW 12 12157 8371 3996 White 18
2 PM Wed 70 74 SW 12 12567 11828 7453 White 19
3 PM Wed 72 75 SW 13 12770 12065 7690 White 20
4 PM Wed 73 75 SW 13 12770 12065 7690 White 20
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 13 12567 11828 7453 White 19
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 15 12157 8371 3996 White 18
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 15 8791 6484 2109 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 15 6151 5512 1137 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 15 5523 5037 662 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 15 5205 4786 411 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 15 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 S 8 4791 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 55 55 S 8 4460 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 54 54 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 55 S 7 4460 4375 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 58 60 S 7 5205 4786 411 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 61 65 SW 9 6151 5512 1137 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 63 67 SW 9 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 65 70 SW 9 10734 6845 2470 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 66 70 SW 9 10734 6845 2470 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 66 69 SW 9 8791 6484 2109 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 66 67 SW 9 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 18 5840 5354 979 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 18 5523 5037 662 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 18 5046 4682 307 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 18 4791 4375 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 18 4460 4375 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 18 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 51 N 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 56 N 8 4686 4375 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 57 61 NW 5 5364 4890 515 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 59 64 NW 5 5840 5354 979 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 61 66 NW 5 6521 5670 1295 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 62 67 NW 5 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 63 66 NW 5 6521 5670 1295 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 63 65 NW 5 6151 5512 1137 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 10 5523 5037 662 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 10 5205 4786 411 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 10 5046 4682 307 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 4686 4375 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 52 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 55 NE 9 4460 4375 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 54 58 N 8 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 56 61 N 8 5364 4890 515 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 58 63 N 8 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 60 64 N 8 5840 5354 979 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 61 64 N 8 5840 5354 979 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 61 63 N 8 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 61 61 N 9 5364 4890 515 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 9 5205 4786 411 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 9 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 9 4686 4375 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 55 N 9 4460 4375 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 55 58 N 9 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 58 63 N 8 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 60 65 N 8 6151 5512 1137 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 62 67 N 8 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 63 68 N 8 7247 6118 1743 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 64 67 N 8 6886 5827 1452 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 64 66 N 8 6521 5670 1295 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 9 5681 5196 821 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 9 5523 5037 662 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 9 5364 4890 515 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 4895 4448 73 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 9 4686 4375 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com