Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 74 74 SE 12 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 73 73 SE 12 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 73 73 SE 12 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 76 76 S 8 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 82 84 S 8 6283 5820 1445 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 85 88 S 8 8175 6520 2145 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 88 93 SW 20 12676 12676 8301 White 25
1 PM Sun 90 96 SW 20 13294 13294 8919 White 28
2 PM Sun 92 98 SW 20 13705 13705 9330 White 30
3 PM Sun 92 97 SW 24 13500 13500 9125 White 29
4 PM Sun 93 97 SW 24 13500 13500 9125 White 29
5 PM Sun 93 95 SW 24 13088 13088 8713 White 27
6 PM Sun 91 92 SW 14 12470 9181 4806 White 24
7 PM Sun 90 90 SW 14 12055 7524 3149 White 22
8 PM Sun 85 85 SW 14 6545 5920 1545 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 83 83 SE 8 6028 5720 1345 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 81 81 SE 8 5827 5520 1145 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 79 79 SE 8 5627 5184 809 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 SE 9 5527 4981 606 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 78 78 SE 9 5527 4981 606 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 76 76 SE 9 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 76 76 SE 9 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 74 74 SE 9 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 73 73 SE 9 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 73 73 SE 12 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 72 72 SE 12 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 72 72 SE 12 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 76 76 S 12 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 80 82 S 12 5928 5620 1245 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 83 86 S 12 7005 6020 1645 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 87 92 SW 16 12470 9181 4806 White 24
1 PM Mon 89 95 SW 16 13088 13088 8713 White 27
2 PM Mon 91 97 SW 16 13500 13500 9125 White 29
3 PM Mon 92 97 SW 20 13500 13500 9125 White 29
4 PM Mon 93 97 SW 20 13500 13500 9125 White 29
5 PM Mon 93 95 SW 20 13088 13088 8713 White 27
6 PM Mon 92 93 W 10 12676 12676 8301 White 25
7 PM Mon 89 89 W 10 9944 6937 2562 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 86 86 W 10 7005 6020 1645 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 82 82 W 10 5928 5620 1245 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 5727 5387 1012 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 78 78 W 10 5527 4981 606 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 E 8 5399 4756 381 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 76 76 E 8 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 76 76 E 8 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 75 75 E 8 4991 4515 140 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 74 74 E 8 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 73 73 E 8 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 72 72 SE 13 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 72 72 SE 13 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 73 73 SE 13 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 75 75 SE 13 4991 4515 140 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 79 81 SE 13 5827 5520 1145 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 83 87 SE 13 7600 6259 1884 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 87 92 SW 16 12470 9181 4806 White 24
1 PM Tue 89 95 SW 16 13088 13088 8713 White 27
2 PM Tue 91 97 SW 16 13500 13500 9125 White 29
3 PM Tue 92 97 SW 16 13500 13500 9125 White 29
4 PM Tue 93 97 SW 16 13500 13500 9125 White 29
5 PM Tue 93 95 SW 16 13088 13088 8713 White 27
6 PM Tue 91 92 SW 14 12470 9181 4806 White 24
7 PM Tue 89 89 SW 14 9944 6937 2562 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 85 85 SW 14 6545 5920 1545 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 14 5827 5520 1145 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 78 78 SW 14 5527 4981 606 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 76 76 SW 14 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 S 10 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 73 73 S 10 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 72 72 S 10 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 71 71 S 10 4450 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 10 4383 4375 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 68 68 S 10 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SE 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SE 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SE 8 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 70 SE 8 4383 4375 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 74 76 SE 8 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 78 82 SE 8 5928 5620 1245 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 82 87 S 8 7600 6259 1884 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 85 91 S 8 12262 8091 3716 White 23
2 PM Wed 87 93 S 8 12676 12676 8301 White 25
3 PM Wed 88 93 S 8 12676 12676 8301 White 25
4 PM Wed 89 93 S 8 12676 12676 8301 White 25
5 PM Wed 89 91 S 8 12262 8091 3716 White 23
6 PM Wed 87 88 W 10 8175 6520 2145 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 10 6283 5820 1445 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 5827 5520 1145 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 5399 4756 381 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 10 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 4450 4375 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 E 2 4316 4375 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 68 68 E 2 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 E 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 E 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 67 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 74 E 6 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 77 80 E 6 5727 5387 1012 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 86 S 5 7005 6020 1645 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 85 91 S 5 12262 8091 3716 White 23
2 PM Thu 87 93 S 5 12676 12676 8301 White 25
3 PM Thu 88 93 S 5 12676 12676 8301 White 25
4 PM Thu 89 93 S 5 12676 12676 8301 White 25
5 PM Thu 89 91 S 5 12262 8091 3716 White 23
6 PM Thu 88 89 W 8 9944 6937 2562 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 8 6545 5920 1545 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 8 5827 5520 1145 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 8 5399 4756 381 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 4767 4448 73 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 4450 4375 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 SE 3 4383 4375 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 69 69 SE 3 4316 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 68 68 SE 3 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 SE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 67 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 E 6 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 75 79 E 6 5627 5184 809 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 79 84 SW 6 6283 5820 1445 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 82 88 SW 6 8175 6520 2145 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 84 90 SW 6 12055 7524 3149 White 22
3 PM Fri 86 91 SW 6 12262 8091 3716 White 23
4 PM Fri 87 91 SW 6 12262 8091 3716 White 23
5 PM Fri 87 89 SW 6 9944 6937 2562 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 86 87 SW 10 7600 6259 1884 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 10 6028 5720 1345 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 10 5627 5184 809 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 10 5196 4582 207 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 10 4585 4381 6 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 10 4517 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SE 5 4450 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 70 70 SE 5 4383 4375 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 69 69 SE 5 4316 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 69 69 SE 5 4316 4375 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 68 68 SE 5 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 SE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com