Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 4251 4375 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 8 4251 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 48 48 NE 8 4600 4376 1 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 51 52 S 7 5239 4680 305 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 54 56 S 7 6204 5408 1033 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 56 58 S 7 6365 6034 1659 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 57 58 S 8 6365 6034 1659 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 58 59 S 8 6446 6196 1821 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 58 58 S 8 6365 6034 1659 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 57 57 SW 6 6284 5586 1211 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 6 6077 5229 854 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 53 53 SW 6 5419 4798 423 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 51 51 SE 8 5053 4596 221 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 49 49 SE 8 4683 4430 55 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 48 48 SE 8 4600 4376 1 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 48 48 E 9 4600 4376 1 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 E 9 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 47 47 E 9 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 10 4433 4375 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 45 45 E 10 4377 4375 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 45 45 E 10 4377 4375 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 12 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 43 43 SE 12 4293 4375 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 43 43 SE 12 4293 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 13 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 47 47 SE 13 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 51 51 SE 13 5053 4596 221 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 55 56 S 15 6204 5408 1033 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 58 59 S 15 6446 6196 1821 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 59 60 S 15 6661 6277 1902 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 60 61 SW 20 6904 6357 1982 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 61 62 SW 20 7145 6438 2063 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 61 61 SW 20 6904 6357 1982 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 60 60 S 15 6661 6277 1902 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 59 59 S 15 6446 6196 1821 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 57 57 S 15 6284 5586 1211 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 55 55 S 15 6077 5229 854 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 53 53 S 15 5419 4798 423 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 52 52 S 15 5239 4680 305 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 50 50 S 14 4810 4513 138 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 S 14 4683 4430 55 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 49 49 S 14 4683 4430 55 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 14 4600 4376 1 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 14 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 46 46 S 14 4433 4375 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 45 45 S 8 4377 4375 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 43 43 S 8 4293 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 NW 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 35 NW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 39 NW 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 42 NW 5 4251 4375 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 42 44 NW 5 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 43 44 NW 5 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 44 45 NW 5 4377 4375 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 44 44 NW 5 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 4293 4375 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 41 41 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 31 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 38 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 41 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 S 2 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 45 46 S 2 4433 4375 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 46 46 S 2 4433 4375 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 47 47 S 2 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 5 4377 4375 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 4251 4375 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NE 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 44 E 3 4335 4375 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 45 47 E 3 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 47 49 E 3 4683 4430 55 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 49 50 E 3 4810 4513 138 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 50 51 E 3 5053 4596 221 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 51 51 E 3 5053 4596 221 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 5 4810 4513 138 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 48 48 N 5 4600 4376 1 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 46 46 N 5 4433 4375 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 5 4293 4375 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 5 4251 4375 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com