Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 50 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 57 59 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 58 59 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 58 59 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 49 50 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 53 54 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 56 57 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 57 58 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 SE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 44 45 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 49 50 N 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 N 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 54 56 N 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 N 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 55 56 N 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 39 40 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 44 45 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 47 49 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 49 51 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 50 51 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 50 51 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 48 50 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 52 53 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 51 51 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 0 0 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 0 0 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 0 1 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 0 2 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 0 1 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com