Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 E 9 3655 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 E 9 5001 4714 339 White 10
10 AM Sun 66 69 E 9 6328 5404 1029 White 16
11 AM Sun 68 73 E 9 7204 7121 2746 White 20
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SW 18 7853 7853 3478 White 23
1 PM Sun 71 77 SW 18 8067 8067 3692 White 24
2 PM Sun 72 78 SW 18 8281 8281 3906 White 25
3 PM Sun 73 78 SW 20 8281 8281 3906 White 25
4 PM Sun 72 76 SW 20 7853 7853 3478 White 23
5 PM Sun 71 74 SW 20 7422 7272 2897 White 21
6 PM Sun 68 68 SW 22 6108 5286 911 White 15
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 22 5412 5051 676 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 22 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 5 4537 4517 142 White 8
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 4095 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 3655 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 1 3434 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 1 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 1 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 S 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SW 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 51 52 SW 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 52 53 SW 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 SW 10 3434 4375 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 58 59 SW 10 4095 4375 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 59 60 SW 10 4315 4375 0 White 7
5 PM Mon 60 60 SW 10 4315 4375 0 White 7
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 4315 4375 0 White 7
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 9 4095 4375 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 3875 4375 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 3655 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 S 8 3434 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 S 8 4315 4375 0 White 7
12 Noon Tue 62 65 SW 6 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 65 68 SW 6 6108 5286 911 White 15
2 PM Tue 67 70 SW 6 6548 5584 1209 White 17
3 PM Tue 69 72 SW 6 6985 6652 2277 White 19
4 PM Tue 70 72 SW 6 6985 6652 2277 White 19
5 PM Tue 70 71 SW 6 6767 6126 1751 White 18
6 PM Tue 69 69 NW 12 6328 5404 1029 White 16
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 12 6108 5286 911 White 15
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 12 5888 5169 794 White 14
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 12 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 12 5001 4714 339 White 10
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 12 4537 4517 142 White 8
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 N 8 4095 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 3655 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 3434 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 NE 7 4095 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 62 65 NE 7 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 66 70 NE 7 6548 5584 1209 White 17
12 Noon Wed 69 75 S 8 7638 7424 3049 White 22
1 PM Wed 72 79 S 8 8495 8495 4120 White 25
2 PM Wed 73 79 S 8 8495 8495 4120 White 25
3 PM Wed 74 80 S 8 8709 8709 4334 White 26
4 PM Wed 75 79 S 8 8495 8495 4120 White 25
5 PM Wed 76 79 S 8 8495 8495 4120 White 25
6 PM Wed 74 75 S 9 7638 7424 3049 White 22
7 PM Wed 73 73 S 9 7204 7121 2746 White 20
8 PM Wed 71 71 S 9 6767 6126 1751 White 18
9 PM Wed 69 69 S 9 6328 5404 1029 White 16
10 PM Wed 67 67 S 9 5888 5169 794 White 14
11 PM Wed 65 65 S 9 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 E 7 5001 4714 339 White 10
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 7 4315 4375 0 White 7
2 AM Thu 59 59 E 7 4095 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 7 3655 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 3434 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 3434 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 E 8 3655 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 E 8 3875 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 8 4537 4517 142 White 8
9 AM Thu 64 65 E 8 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 67 69 E 8 6328 5404 1029 White 16
11 AM Thu 70 73 E 8 7204 7121 2746 White 20
12 Noon Thu 73 78 S 8 8281 8281 3906 White 25
1 PM Thu 75 81 S 8 8921 8921 4546 White 27
2 PM Thu 76 82 S 8 9135 9135 4760 White 28
3 PM Thu 78 83 S 8 9347 9347 4972 White 29
4 PM Thu 78 82 S 8 9135 9135 4760 White 28
5 PM Thu 78 80 S 8 8709 8709 4334 White 26
6 PM Thu 77 78 SW 12 8281 8281 3906 White 25
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 7853 7853 3478 White 23
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 7422 7272 2897 White 21
9 PM Thu 72 72 SW 12 6985 6652 2277 White 19
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 6328 5404 1029 White 16
11 PM Thu 67 67 SW 12 5888 5169 794 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 E 8 5175 4821 446 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 62 62 E 8 4778 4563 188 White 9
2 AM Fri 60 60 E 8 4315 4375 0 White 7
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 8 3875 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 3655 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 3655 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 E 8 3875 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 E 8 4315 4375 0 White 7
8 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 5001 4714 339 White 10
9 AM Fri 66 68 E 8 6108 5286 911 White 15
10 AM Fri 70 73 E 8 7204 7121 2746 White 20
11 AM Fri 73 78 E 8 8281 8281 3906 White 25
12 Noon Fri 76 83 S 8 9347 9347 4972 White 29
1 PM Fri 79 86 S 8 10005 10005 5630 White 32
2 PM Fri 81 88 S 8 10410 10410 6035 White 34
3 PM Fri 82 88 S 8 10410 10410 6035 White 34
4 PM Fri 82 87 S 8 10208 10208 5833 White 33
5 PM Fri 82 85 S 8 9787 9787 5412 White 31
6 PM Fri 81 82 W 13 9135 9135 4760 White 28
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 13 8495 8495 4120 White 25
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 8067 8067 3692 White 24
9 PM Fri 74 74 W 13 7422 7272 2897 White 21
10 PM Fri 71 71 W 13 6767 6126 1751 White 18
11 PM Fri 68 68 W 13 6108 5286 911 White 15
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NE 7 5294 4933 558 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 63 63 NE 7 5001 4714 339 White 10
2 AM Sat 61 61 NE 7 4537 4517 142 White 8
3 AM Sat 59 59 NE 7 4095 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 NE 7 3875 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NE 7 3875 4375 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com