Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 40 40 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 41 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 41 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 43 43 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 45 45 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 51 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 51 51 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 51 51 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 52 52 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 41 41 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 37 37 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 37 37 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 40 40 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 46 47 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 47 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 48 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 49 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 43 43 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 41 41 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 39 39 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 37 37 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 33 33 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 35 35 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 38 39 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 42 43 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 48 50 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 49 50 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 50 51 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 50 50 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 45 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 40 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 39 39 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 34 34 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 46 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 50 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 54 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 54 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 54 54 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 39 39 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 37 37 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 39 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 41 42 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 45 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 45 46 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 47 48 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 47 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 31 31 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 39 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 41 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 43 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 45 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 46 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 47 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 33 33 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 30 30 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 29 29 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 29 29 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com