Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 4409 4375 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 4409 4375 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 6 4465 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 35 35 E 7 4465 4375 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 44 45 E 7 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 48 50 S 1 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 51 54 S 1 8562 8435 4060 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 53 56 S 1 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 55 57 SW 3 8670 8556 4181 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 56 57 SW 3 8670 8556 4181 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 56 56 SW 3 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 54 54 SE 0 8562 8435 4060 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 51 51 SE 0 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 48 48 SE 0 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 45 45 E 8 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 8 6700 5472 1097 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 44 44 E 8 6700 5472 1097 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 43 43 E 10 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 10 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 8 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 40 40 E 8 5180 4631 256 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 40 40 E 8 5180 4631 256 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 5000 4519 144 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 5000 4519 144 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 4638 4407 32 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 6 4819 4463 88 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 46 47 E 6 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 50 52 S 2 8490 8102 3727 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 53 55 S 2 8598 8484 4109 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 56 58 S 2 8827 8592 4217 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 58 60 SW 2 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 59 60 SW 2 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 59 59 SW 2 9002 8628 4253 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 57 57 W 1 8670 8556 4181 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 1 8598 8484 4109 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 1 8526 8315 3940 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 48 48 E 6 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 10 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 E 10 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 46 46 E 10 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 9 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 9 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 44 44 E 9 6700 5472 1097 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 45 45 NE 7 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 49 50 NE 7 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 54 56 S 2 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 57 60 S 2 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 60 62 S 2 9528 8969 4594 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 61 63 S 2 9846 9142 4767 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 62 63 S 2 9846 9142 4767 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 62 62 S 2 9528 8969 4594 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 60 60 W 2 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 2 8827 8592 4217 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 2 8598 8484 4109 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 8490 8102 3727 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 50 50 W 2 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 2 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 5 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 5 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 46 46 NE 5 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
5 AM Fri 44 44 E 5 6700 5472 1097 Blue 13
6 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 46 46 E 5 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 50 51 E 5 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 55 57 S 5 8670 8556 4181 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 59 61 S 5 9351 8795 4420 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 61 63 S 5 9846 9142 4767 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 62 64 S 5 10161 9315 4940 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 63 64 S 5 10161 9315 4940 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 63 63 S 5 9846 9142 4767 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 3 9351 8795 4420 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 9002 8628 4253 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 3 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
8 PM Fri 54 54 W 3 8562 8435 4060 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 3 8490 8102 3727 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 3 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 2 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 2 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 2 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 2 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
4 AM Sat 46 46 N 2 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
5 AM Sat 45 45 E 2 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 2 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 2 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 2 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 46 46 E 2 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 50 51 E 2 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 54 56 S 3 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 57 59 S 3 9002 8628 4253 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 59 61 S 3 9351 8795 4420 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 61 63 S 3 9846 9142 4767 Blue 32
3 PM Sat 61 62 S 3 9528 8969 4594 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 60 60 S 3 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 9002 8628 4253 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 5 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 5 8526 8315 3940 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 5 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 5 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 5 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 3 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 N 3 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 3 6878 6076 1701 Blue 14
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 5 6523 5169 794 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 5 6116 4990 615 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 5516 4810 435 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 44 44 NE 5 6700 5472 1097 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 48 49 NE 5 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 5 8562 8435 4060 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 55 57 NE 5 8670 8556 4181 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 58 60 NE 5 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 59 61 NE 5 9351 8795 4420 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 60 61 NE 5 9351 8795 4420 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 9177 8663 4288 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 5 8827 8592 4217 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 5 8634 8520 4145 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 54 54 NE 5 8562 8435 4060 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 5 8490 8102 3727 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 51 51 NE 5 8445 7794 3419 Blue 20
10 PM Sun 50 50 NE 5 8351 7430 3055 Blue 19
11 PM Sun 49 49 NE 6 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NE 6 8137 7062 2687 Blue 18
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 6 7849 6857 2482 Blue 17
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 7481 6681 2306 Blue 16
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 7108 6504 2129 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com