Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 9 3805 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NE 9 4026 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 9 4246 4375 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 4900 4900 525 White 5
10 AM Mon 57 59 E 7 6197 6197 1822 White 11
11 AM Mon 60 63 E 7 7053 7053 2678 White 15
12 Noon Mon 64 68 W 6 8109 8109 3734 White 20
1 PM Mon 66 71 W 6 8735 8735 4360 White 23
2 PM Mon 68 73 W 6 9150 9150 4775 White 25
3 PM Mon 70 75 NW 7 9565 9565 5190 White 27
4 PM Mon 71 74 NW 7 9358 9358 4983 White 26
5 PM Mon 72 74 NW 7 9358 9358 4983 White 26
6 PM Mon 72 72 N 12 8944 8944 4569 White 24
7 PM Mon 71 71 N 12 8735 8735 4360 White 23
8 PM Mon 69 69 N 12 8318 8318 3943 White 21
9 PM Mon 66 66 NE 16 7688 7688 3313 White 18
10 PM Mon 64 64 NE 16 7265 7265 2890 White 16
11 PM Mon 61 61 NE 16 6627 6627 2252 White 13
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 NE 12 6197 6197 1822 White 11
1 AM Tue 57 57 NE 12 5767 5767 1392 White 9
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 12 5551 5551 1176 White 8
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 12 5118 5118 743 White 6
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 4900 4900 525 White 5
5 AM Tue 52 52 NE 12 4683 4683 308 White 4
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 12 4465 4465 90 White 3
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 12 4465 4465 90 White 3
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 4900 4900 525 White 5
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 5551 5551 1176 White 8
10 AM Tue 59 60 NE 9 6412 6412 2037 White 12
11 AM Tue 64 67 NE 9 7899 7899 3524 White 19
12 Noon Tue 68 72 E 9 8944 8944 4569 White 24
1 PM Tue 71 76 E 9 9784 9784 5409 White 28
2 PM Tue 74 79 E 9 10411 10411 6036 White 31
3 PM Tue 76 80 E 9 10614 10614 6239 White 32
4 PM Tue 77 80 E 9 10614 10614 6239 White 32
5 PM Tue 77 79 E 9 10411 10411 6036 White 31
6 PM Tue 76 76 NE 8 9784 9784 5409 White 28
7 PM Tue 74 74 NE 8 9358 9358 4983 White 26
8 PM Tue 71 71 NE 8 8735 8735 4360 White 23
9 PM Tue 69 69 NE 8 8318 8318 3943 White 21
10 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 7899 7899 3524 White 19
11 PM Tue 66 66 NE 8 7688 7688 3313 White 18
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NE 12 7265 7265 2890 White 16
1 AM Wed 63 63 NE 12 7053 7053 2678 White 15
2 AM Wed 61 61 NE 12 6627 6627 2252 White 13
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 12 6197 6197 1822 White 11
4 AM Wed 57 57 NE 12 5767 5767 1392 White 9
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 12 5335 5335 960 White 7
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 9 5118 5118 743 White 6
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 9 5118 5118 743 White 6
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 9 5551 5551 1176 White 8
9 AM Wed 58 58 E 9 5982 5982 1607 White 10
10 AM Wed 62 63 E 9 7053 7053 2678 White 15
11 AM Wed 66 68 E 9 8109 8109 3734 White 20
12 Noon Wed 70 73 NE 9 9150 9150 4775 White 25
1 PM Wed 73 76 NE 9 9784 9784 5409 White 28
2 PM Wed 75 78 NE 9 10208 10208 5833 White 30
3 PM Wed 77 80 NE 9 10614 10614 6239 White 32
4 PM Wed 78 80 NE 9 10614 10614 6239 White 32
5 PM Wed 78 79 NE 9 10411 10411 6036 White 31
6 PM Wed 77 77 E 6 10002 10002 5627 White 29
7 PM Wed 74 74 E 6 9358 9358 4983 White 26
8 PM Wed 71 71 E 6 8735 8735 4360 White 23
9 PM Wed 68 68 E 6 8109 8109 3734 White 20
10 PM Wed 66 66 E 6 7688 7688 3313 White 18
11 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 7476 7476 3101 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 12 7265 7265 2890 White 16
1 AM Thu 62 62 NE 12 6841 6841 2466 White 14
2 AM Thu 61 61 NE 12 6627 6627 2252 White 13
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 12 6197 6197 1822 White 11
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 12 5982 5982 1607 White 10
5 AM Thu 57 57 NE 12 5767 5767 1392 White 9
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 10 5767 5767 1392 White 9
7 AM Thu 57 57 NE 10 5767 5767 1392 White 9
8 AM Thu 58 58 NE 10 5982 5982 1607 White 10
9 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 6197 6197 1822 White 11
10 AM Thu 62 63 NE 10 7053 7053 2678 White 15
11 AM Thu 65 67 NE 10 7899 7899 3524 White 19
12 Noon Thu 69 72 E 5 8944 8944 4569 White 24
1 PM Thu 72 75 E 5 9565 9565 5190 White 27
2 PM Thu 74 77 E 5 10002 10002 5627 White 29
3 PM Thu 76 79 E 5 10411 10411 6036 White 31
4 PM Thu 77 79 E 5 10411 10411 6036 White 31
5 PM Thu 77 78 E 5 10208 10208 5833 White 30
6 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 9784 9784 5409 White 28
7 PM Thu 75 75 N 6 9565 9565 5190 White 27
8 PM Thu 73 73 N 6 9150 9150 4775 White 25
9 PM Thu 71 71 N 6 8735 8735 4360 White 23
10 PM Thu 69 69 N 6 8318 8318 3943 White 21
11 PM Thu 68 68 N 6 8109 8109 3734 White 20
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NE 6 7899 7899 3524 White 19
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 6 7476 7476 3101 White 17
2 AM Fri 63 63 NE 6 7053 7053 2678 White 15
3 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 6627 6627 2252 White 13
4 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 6412 6412 2037 White 12
5 AM Fri 58 58 NE 6 5982 5982 1607 White 10
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 7 5982 5982 1607 White 10
7 AM Fri 58 58 NE 7 5982 5982 1607 White 10
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 7 6412 6412 2037 White 12
9 AM Fri 62 62 NE 7 6841 6841 2466 White 14
10 AM Fri 65 66 NE 7 7688 7688 3313 White 18
11 AM Fri 68 70 NE 7 8527 8527 4152 White 22
12 Noon Fri 71 75 E 6 9565 9565 5190 White 27
1 PM Fri 74 79 E 6 10411 10411 6036 White 31
2 PM Fri 76 81 E 6 10817 10817 6442 White 33
3 PM Fri 78 82 E 6 11019 11019 6644 White 34
4 PM Fri 80 83 E 6 11222 11222 6847 White 35
5 PM Fri 80 81 E 6 10817 10817 6442 White 33
6 PM Fri 79 79 NW 5 10411 10411 6036 White 31
7 PM Fri 77 77 NW 5 10002 10002 5627 White 29
8 PM Fri 74 74 NW 5 9358 9358 4983 White 26
9 PM Fri 71 71 NW 5 8735 8735 4360 White 23
10 PM Fri 69 69 NW 5 8318 8318 3943 White 21
11 PM Fri 68 68 NW 5 8109 8109 3734 White 20
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NE 6 7899 7899 3524 White 19
1 AM Sat 66 66 NE 6 7688 7688 3313 White 18
2 AM Sat 64 64 NE 6 7265 7265 2890 White 16
3 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 7053 7053 2678 White 15
4 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 6627 6627 2252 White 13
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 6412 6412 2037 White 12
6 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 6197 6197 1822 White 11
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 6197 6197 1822 White 11
8 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 6412 6412 2037 White 12
9 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 7053 7053 2678 White 15
10 AM Sat 66 67 NE 6 7899 7899 3524 White 19
11 AM Sat 71 74 NE 6 9358 9358 4983 White 26
12 Noon Sat 75 79 S 3 10411 10411 6036 White 31
1 PM Sat 78 83 S 3 11222 11222 6847 White 35
2 PM Sat 80 85 S 3 11625 11625 7250 White 37
3 PM Sat 81 85 S 3 11625 11625 7250 White 37
4 PM Sat 82 85 S 3 11625 11625 7250 White 37
5 PM Sat 83 84 S 3 11424 11424 7049 White 36
6 PM Sat 82 82 W 7 11019 11019 6644 White 34
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 7 10614 10614 6239 White 32
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 9784 9784 5409 White 28
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 7 9150 9150 4775 White 25
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 8735 8735 4360 White 23
11 PM Sat 69 69 W 7 8318 8318 3943 White 21
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NE 3 8109 8109 3734 White 20
1 AM Sun 67 67 NE 3 7899 7899 3524 White 19
2 AM Sun 65 65 NE 3 7476 7476 3101 White 17
3 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 7265 7265 2890 White 16
4 AM Sun 62 62 NE 3 6841 6841 2466 White 14
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 6627 6627 2252 White 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com