Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 S 7 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 67 67 S 7 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 70 71 S 7 6772 5633 1258 White 9
12 Noon Tue 73 75 SW 9 7645 7116 2741 White 13
1 PM Tue 75 77 SW 9 8078 7527 3152 White 15
2 PM Tue 77 79 SW 9 8510 8069 3694 White 17
3 PM Tue 78 80 SW 10 8725 8725 4350 White 18
4 PM Tue 78 79 SW 10 8510 8069 3694 White 17
5 PM Tue 78 79 SW 10 8510 8069 3694 White 17
6 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 8294 7732 3357 White 16
7 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 8078 7527 3152 White 15
8 PM Tue 76 76 SW 9 7862 7322 2947 White 14
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 5 7427 6772 2397 White 12
10 PM Tue 72 72 S 5 6991 5860 1485 White 10
11 PM Tue 69 69 S 5 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 E 5 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 63 63 E 5 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 62 62 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 E 8 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 67 69 E 8 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 70 74 E 8 7427 6772 2397 White 12
11 AM Wed 74 79 E 8 8510 8069 3694 White 17
12 Noon Wed 76 83 SW 10 9366 9366 4991 White 21
1 PM Wed 79 86 SW 10 10016 10016 5641 White 24
2 PM Wed 80 87 SW 10 10249 10249 5874 White 25
3 PM Wed 82 88 SW 10 10456 10456 6081 White 26
4 PM Wed 83 88 SW 10 10456 10456 6081 White 26
5 PM Wed 83 86 SW 10 10016 10016 5641 White 24
6 PM Wed 83 85 W 13 9791 9791 5416 White 23
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 13 9152 9152 4777 White 20
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 13 8725 8725 4350 White 18
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 13 8294 7732 3357 White 16
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 7862 7322 2947 White 14
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 13 7209 6066 1691 White 11
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 SE 5 6772 5633 1258 White 9
1 AM Thu 69 69 SE 5 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 67 67 SE 5 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 65 65 SE 5 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 63 63 SE 5 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 67 67 E 5 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 71 73 E 5 7209 6066 1691 White 11
10 AM Thu 74 78 E 5 8294 7732 3357 White 16
11 AM Thu 77 83 E 5 9366 9366 4991 White 21
12 Noon Thu 79 86 SW 8 10016 10016 5641 White 24
1 PM Thu 82 90 SW 8 10867 10867 6492 White 27
2 PM Thu 85 93 SW 8 11481 11481 7106 White 30
3 PM Thu 87 94 SW 8 11686 11686 7311 White 31
4 PM Thu 88 94 SW 8 11686 11686 7311 White 31
5 PM Thu 88 92 SW 8 11276 11276 6901 White 29
6 PM Thu 88 90 SW 7 10867 10867 6492 White 27
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 7 10249 10249 5874 White 25
8 PM Thu 86 86 SW 7 10016 10016 5641 White 24
9 PM Thu 84 84 SW 7 9578 9578 5203 White 22
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 7 8725 8725 4350 White 18
11 PM Thu 77 77 SW 7 8078 7527 3152 White 15
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 5 7209 6066 1691 White 11
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 5 6772 5633 1258 White 9
2 AM Fri 70 70 W 5 6084 4933 558 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 68 68 W 5 5669 4483 108 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 5 4610 4375 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 69 69 E 6 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 74 76 E 6 7862 7322 2947 White 14
10 AM Fri 77 81 E 6 8938 8938 4563 White 19
11 AM Fri 80 86 E 6 10016 10016 5641 White 24
12 Noon Fri 82 89 S 7 10660 10660 6285 White 27
1 PM Fri 85 93 S 7 11481 11481 7106 White 30
2 PM Fri 87 95 S 7 11890 11890 7515 White 32
3 PM Fri 89 96 S 7 12094 12094 7719 White 33
4 PM Fri 90 96 S 7 12094 12094 7719 White 33
5 PM Fri 90 94 S 7 11686 11686 7311 White 31
6 PM Fri 90 92 SW 12 11276 11276 6901 White 29
7 PM Fri 88 88 SW 12 10456 10456 6081 White 26
8 PM Fri 87 87 SW 12 10249 10249 5874 White 25
9 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 9578 9578 5203 White 22
10 PM Fri 80 80 SW 12 8725 8725 4350 White 18
11 PM Fri 77 77 SW 12 8078 7527 3152 White 15
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 SW 6 7427 6772 2397 White 12
1 AM Sat 71 71 SW 6 6772 5633 1258 White 9
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 6 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 6 4379 4375 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 E 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 E 7 4379 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 67 67 E 7 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 70 72 E 7 6991 5860 1485 White 10
10 AM Sat 73 77 E 7 8078 7527 3152 White 15
11 AM Sat 75 81 E 7 8938 8938 4563 White 19
12 Noon Sat 78 85 S 9 9791 9791 5416 White 23
1 PM Sat 80 87 S 9 10249 10249 5874 White 25
2 PM Sat 82 89 S 9 10660 10660 6285 White 27
3 PM Sat 84 90 S 9 10867 10867 6492 White 27
4 PM Sat 84 89 S 9 10660 10660 6285 White 27
5 PM Sat 84 87 S 9 10249 10249 5874 White 25
6 PM Sat 82 83 SW 15 9366 9366 4991 White 21
7 PM Sat 81 81 SW 15 8938 8938 4563 White 19
8 PM Sat 78 78 SW 15 8294 7732 3357 White 16
9 PM Sat 76 76 SW 15 7862 7322 2947 White 14
10 PM Sat 73 73 SW 15 7209 6066 1691 White 11
11 PM Sat 71 71 SW 15 6772 5633 1258 White 9
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 7 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 67 67 W 7 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 7 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 W 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 SW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 SW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 67 SW 8 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 70 SW 8 6084 4933 558 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 69 74 SW 8 7427 6772 2397 White 12
12 Noon Sun 72 78 SW 7 8294 7732 3357 White 16
1 PM Sun 74 81 SW 7 8938 8938 4563 White 19
2 PM Sun 76 83 SW 7 9366 9366 4991 White 21
3 PM Sun 78 84 SW 7 9578 9578 5203 White 22
4 PM Sun 80 84 SW 7 9578 9578 5203 White 22
5 PM Sun 80 83 SW 7 9366 9366 4991 White 21
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 9 8938 8938 4563 White 19
7 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 8510 8069 3694 White 17
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 8294 7732 3357 White 16
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 7862 7322 2947 White 14
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 7427 6772 2397 White 12
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 6772 5633 1258 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 6 5877 4605 230 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 6 4969 4376 1 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 65 65 NW 6 4487 4375 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 4290 4375 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com