Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 77 77 SE 8 4429 4375 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 76 76 SE 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 81 81 SE 8 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 87 89 SE 5 6944 6078 1703 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 91 95 SE 5 10138 7885 3510 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 95 101 SE 5 18702 13135 8760 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 99 106 SW 13 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 101 109 SW 13 21549 19593 15218 White 34
2 PM Tue 103 112 SW 13 22108 20853 16478 White 37
3 PM Tue 104 112 SW 21 22108 20853 16478 White 37
4 PM Tue 104 110 SW 21 21736 19939 15564 White 35
5 PM Tue 104 108 SW 21 20527 19434 15059 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 103 105 SW 28 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 104 105 SW 28 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
8 PM Tue 103 103 SW 28 19155 15768 11393 Blue 28
9 PM Tue 97 97 SW 17 12463 9011 4636 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 91 91 SW 17 7525 6773 2398 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 87 87 SW 17 6569 5239 864 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 S 13 5654 5104 729 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 82 82 S 13 5108 4614 239 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 80 80 S 13 4899 4426 51 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 78 78 SE 10 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 76 76 SE 10 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 74 74 SE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 SE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 SE 10 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 78 SE 10 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 81 83 SE 7 5175 4890 515 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 86 90 SE 7 7100 6525 2150 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 91 97 SE 7 12463 9011 4636 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 95 102 SW 14 18905 14003 9628 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 97 105 SW 14 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 98 106 SW 14 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 98 105 SW 17 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 99 105 SW 17 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 100 104 SW 17 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 100 102 SW 18 18905 14003 9628 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 97 98 SW 18 13427 9949 5574 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 94 94 SW 18 9189 7472 3097 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 90 90 SW 18 7100 6525 2150 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 86 86 SW 18 6116 5171 796 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 83 83 SW 18 5175 4890 515 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 SE 9 4899 4426 51 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 78 78 SE 9 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 77 77 SE 9 4429 4375 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 75 75 SE 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 SE 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 SE 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 76 SE 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 79 81 SE 8 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 84 87 SE 8 6569 5239 864 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 89 94 SE 8 9189 7472 3097 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 93 100 SW 10 18581 12169 7794 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 96 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 97 105 SW 10 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 98 105 SW 10 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 98 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 99 103 SW 10 19155 15768 11393 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 99 101 SW 16 18702 13135 8760 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 97 98 SW 16 13427 9949 5574 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 95 95 SW 16 10138 7885 3510 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 92 92 SW 16 7943 6927 2552 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 88 88 SW 16 6789 5622 1247 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 84 84 SW 16 5243 5037 662 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 S 8 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 78 78 S 8 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 76 76 S 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 75 75 S 8 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 S 8 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 S 8 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 77 77 SE 9 4429 4375 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 79 79 SE 9 4618 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 81 81 SE 9 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 84 86 SE 9 6116 5171 796 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 88 91 SE 9 7525 6773 2398 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 91 96 SE 9 11358 8292 3917 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 94 101 SW 10 18702 13135 8760 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 96 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 98 106 SW 10 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 99 106 SW 10 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 100 106 SW 10 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 100 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 99 101 SW 17 18702 13135 8760 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 97 98 SW 17 13427 9949 5574 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 94 94 SW 17 9189 7472 3097 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 91 91 SW 17 7525 6773 2398 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 87 87 SW 17 6569 5239 864 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 84 84 SW 17 5243 5037 662 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 S 9 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 78 78 S 9 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 76 76 S 9 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 75 75 S 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 S 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 S 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 SE 9 4429 4375 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 79 79 SE 9 4618 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 82 82 SE 9 5108 4614 239 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 85 86 SE 9 6116 5171 796 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 88 91 SE 9 7525 6773 2398 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 91 96 SE 9 11358 8292 3917 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 94 100 SW 10 18581 12169 7794 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 97 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 99 106 SW 10 19774 19002 14627 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 100 107 SW 10 20154 19275 14900 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 100 105 SW 10 19522 18795 14420 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 100 104 SW 10 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 98 100 SW 17 18581 12169 7794 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 96 96 SW 17 11358 8292 3917 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 93 93 SW 17 8355 7080 2705 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 90 90 SW 17 7100 6525 2150 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 87 87 SW 17 6569 5239 864 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 83 83 SW 17 5175 4890 515 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 S 8 4899 4426 51 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 78 78 S 8 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 76 76 S 8 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 75 75 S 8 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 SE 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 SE 9 4429 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 80 80 SE 9 4899 4426 51 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 83 84 SE 9 5243 5037 662 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 86 89 SE 9 6944 6078 1703 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 90 95 SE 9 10138 7885 3510 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 93 99 SW 8 14667 11058 6683 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 95 102 SW 8 18905 14003 9628 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 97 104 SW 8 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 98 104 SW 8 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 99 104 SW 8 19362 18639 14264 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 99 102 SW 8 18905 14003 9628 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 98 100 W 14 18581 12169 7794 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 14 11358 8292 3917 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 93 93 W 14 8355 7080 2705 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 90 90 W 14 7100 6525 2150 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 87 87 W 14 6569 5239 864 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 84 84 W 14 5243 5037 662 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 SW 9 5040 4520 145 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 78 78 SW 9 4524 4375 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 76 76 SW 9 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 75 75 SW 9 4241 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SW 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 SW 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com