Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 S 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 SE 6 6425 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 73 SE 6 12615 8110 2910 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 72 78 SE 6 13923 13607 8407 White 7
12 Noon Sat 75 81 SW 6 14551 14551 9351 White 10
1 PM Sat 77 83 SW 6 14962 14962 9762 White 12
2 PM Sat 77 83 SW 6 14962 14962 9762 White 12
3 PM Sat 77 83 NW 8 14962 14962 9762 White 12
4 PM Sat 77 81 NW 8 14551 14551 9351 White 10
5 PM Sat 78 81 NW 8 14551 14551 9351 White 10
6 PM Sat 78 79 NW 8 14133 14133 8933 White 8
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 8 13713 12790 7590 White 6
8 PM Sat 74 74 NW 8 13081 9002 3802 White 3
9 PM Sat 69 69 N 5 7337 5335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 5 5413 5335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 N 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 3 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 S 3 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 SE 5 7337 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 SE 5 13081 9002 3802 White 3
11 AM Sun 74 79 SE 5 14133 14133 8933 White 8
12 Noon Sun 77 80 SW 6 14341 14341 9141 White 9
1 PM Sun 78 82 SW 6 14758 14758 9558 White 11
2 PM Sun 78 82 SW 6 14758 14758 9558 White 11
3 PM Sun 78 81 W 10 14551 14551 9351 White 10
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 10 14551 14551 9351 White 10
5 PM Sun 78 80 W 10 14341 14341 9141 White 9
6 PM Sun 77 78 S 8 13923 13607 8407 White 7
7 PM Sun 74 74 S 8 13081 9002 3802 White 3
8 PM Sun 70 70 S 8 8174 5418 218 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 S 8 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 70 S 8 8174 5418 218 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 75 S 8 13292 10695 5495 White 4
12 Noon Mon 74 77 W 5 13713 12790 7590 White 6
1 PM Mon 75 78 W 5 13923 13607 8407 White 7
2 PM Mon 76 79 W 5 14133 14133 8933 White 8
3 PM Mon 76 78 W 5 13923 13607 8407 White 7
4 PM Mon 77 79 W 5 14133 14133 8933 White 8
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 5 13923 13607 8407 White 7
6 PM Mon 76 77 NW 6 13713 12790 7590 White 6
7 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 12615 8110 2910 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 70 70 NW 6 8174 5418 218 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 5413 5335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 66 SE 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 70 SE 7 8174 5418 218 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 75 SE 7 13292 10695 5495 White 4
12 Noon Tue 73 79 W 7 14133 14133 8933 White 8
1 PM Tue 75 82 W 7 14758 14758 9558 White 11
2 PM Tue 76 83 W 7 14962 14962 9762 White 12
3 PM Tue 77 83 W 7 14962 14962 9762 White 12
4 PM Tue 78 83 W 7 14962 14962 9762 White 12
5 PM Tue 78 81 W 7 14551 14551 9351 White 10
6 PM Tue 77 79 NW 8 14133 14133 8933 White 8
7 PM Tue 76 76 NW 8 13504 12563 7363 White 5
8 PM Tue 74 74 NW 8 13081 9002 3802 White 3
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 8 11027 7290 2090 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 70 70 NW 8 8174 5418 218 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 NW 8 5413 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 S 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 S 7 5413 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 72 S 7 11027 7290 2090 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 71 77 S 7 13713 12790 7590 White 6
12 Noon Wed 74 81 W 8 14551 14551 9351 White 10
1 PM Wed 77 85 W 8 15370 15370 10170 White 14
2 PM Wed 79 87 W 8 15778 15778 10578 White 16
3 PM Wed 80 87 W 8 15778 15778 10578 White 16
4 PM Wed 81 87 W 8 15778 15778 10578 White 16
5 PM Wed 81 85 W 8 15370 15370 10170 White 14
6 PM Wed 80 82 W 8 14758 14758 9558 White 11
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 8 14133 14133 8933 White 8
8 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 13713 12790 7590 White 6
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 13081 9002 3802 White 3
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 9203 6400 1200 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 6425 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 63 SW 7 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 SW 7 5413 5335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 7 11027 7290 2090 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 71 76 SW 7 13504 12563 7363 White 5
12 Noon Thu 74 80 W 9 14341 14341 9141 White 9
1 PM Thu 76 83 W 9 14962 14962 9762 White 12
2 PM Thu 78 85 W 9 15370 15370 10170 White 14
3 PM Thu 79 85 W 9 15370 15370 10170 White 14
4 PM Thu 79 84 W 9 15166 15166 9966 White 13
5 PM Thu 79 82 W 9 14758 14758 9558 White 11
6 PM Thu 78 80 NW 10 14341 14341 9141 White 9
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 10 13504 12563 7363 White 5
8 PM Thu 74 74 NW 10 13081 9002 3802 White 3
9 PM Thu 72 72 NW 10 11027 7290 2090 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 7337 5335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NW 10 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 5335 5335 135 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com