Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 NW 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 20 20 WNW 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 19 19 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 19 19 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 19 19 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 19 19 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 19 19 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 19 19 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 19 19 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 19 19 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 22 22 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 24 25 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 27 28 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 28 29 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 29 30 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 29 29 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 29 29 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 28 28 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 28 28 NW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 26 26 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 23 23 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 21 21 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 20 20 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 20 20 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 19 19 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 19 19 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 18 18 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 17 17 NNE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 17 17 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 16 16 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 16 16 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 16 16 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 16 16 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 16 16 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 19 20 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 23 24 SSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 27 27 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 29 30 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 30 32 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 31 33 NW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 29 30 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 26 26 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 24 24 NNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 23 23 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 23 23 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 23 23 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 23 23 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 23 23 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 22 22 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 22 22 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 21 21 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 21 21 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 21 21 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 21 21 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 23 23 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 24 24 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 25 26 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 29 31 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 33 36 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 37 41 SSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 39 43 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 41 44 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 43 45 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 40 41 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 38 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 36 36 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 34 34 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 33 33 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 32 32 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 32 32 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com