Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 36 36 S 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 40 40 S 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 36 36 S 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 36 36 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 36 36 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 40 40 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 36 36 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 44 44 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 44 44 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 44 44 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 44 44 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 43 43 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 43 43 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 41 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 41 41 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 40 40 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 38 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 37 37 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 35 35 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 35 35 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 34 34 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 32 32 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 35 35 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 35 35 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 36 36 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 36 36 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 35 35 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 29 29 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 27 27 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 27 27 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 27 27 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 27 27 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 26 26 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 26 26 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 26 26 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 27 27 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 27 27 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 28 28 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 29 29 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 31 31 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 33 33 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 35 35 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 36 36 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 34 34 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 32 32 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 31 31 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 31 31 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 31 31 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 31 31 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 29 29 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 29 29 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 29 29 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 28 28 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 27 27 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 26 26 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 26 26 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 28 28 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 31 31 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 35 35 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 38 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 43 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 38 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 34 34 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 35 35 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 30 30 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 31 31 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 30 30 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 29 29 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 29 29 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 29 29 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 30 30 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 30 30 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 31 31 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 31 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 30 30 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 28 28 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 27 27 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 25 25 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 25 25 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 24 24 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 23 23 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 25 26 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 26 27 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 27 27 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 29 29 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 30 30 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 30 30 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 29 29 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 28 28 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 27 27 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 25 25 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 23 23 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 22 22 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 21 21 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 21 21 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 21 21 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 22 22 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 22 22 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com