Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SE 7 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 7 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 60 60 SE 7 7140 5851 651 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 63 64 SE 7 8360 7341 2141 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 65 66 SE 7 9082 7763 2563 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 67 68 S 10 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 68 69 S 10 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 68 69 S 10 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 67 68 S 12 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 67 68 S 12 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 66 66 S 12 9082 7763 2563 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 65 65 S 10 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 64 64 S 10 8360 7341 2141 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 62 62 S 10 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 60 60 SE 7 7140 5851 651 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 59 59 SE 7 6838 5581 381 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 57 57 SE 7 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SE 7 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 7 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 SE 7 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SE 8 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SE 8 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SE 8 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SE 10 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SE 10 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 60 61 SE 10 7353 6063 863 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 64 65 SE 10 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 67 69 SE 10 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 69 71 S 16 10982 9563 4363 White 15
1 PM Wed 71 73 S 16 11408 11408 6208 White 17
2 PM Wed 72 74 S 16 11621 11621 6421 White 18
3 PM Wed 72 74 S 16 11621 11621 6421 White 18
4 PM Wed 72 73 S 16 11408 11408 6208 White 17
5 PM Wed 70 71 S 16 10982 9563 4363 White 15
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 16 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 16 9340 8266 3066 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 16 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 16 7778 7130 1930 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 61 61 SW 16 7353 6063 863 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 16 6838 5581 381 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 S 9 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 57 57 S 9 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 56 56 S 9 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 9 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 9 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 9 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SE 9 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 SE 9 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 61 62 SE 9 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 65 67 SE 9 9340 8266 3066 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 68 71 SE 9 10982 9563 4363 White 15
12 Noon Thu 71 76 S 9 12045 12045 6845 White 20
1 PM Thu 73 79 S 9 12680 12680 7480 White 23
2 PM Thu 75 81 S 9 13101 13101 7901 White 25
3 PM Thu 76 81 S 9 13101 13101 7901 White 25
4 PM Thu 77 81 S 9 13101 13101 7901 White 25
5 PM Thu 78 80 S 9 12890 12890 7690 White 24
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 7 12469 12469 7269 White 22
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 11834 11834 6634 White 19
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 11195 9816 4616 White 16
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 7 7778 7130 1930 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 5 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 7140 5851 651 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 59 59 E 5 6838 5581 381 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 5 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 SE 6 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SE 6 7140 5851 651 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 63 65 SE 6 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 67 70 SE 6 10768 9309 4109 White 14
11 AM Fri 72 77 SE 6 12257 12257 7057 White 21
12 Noon Fri 76 82 SW 7 13312 13312 8112 White 26
1 PM Fri 78 85 SW 7 13940 13940 8740 White 29
2 PM Fri 80 87 SW 7 14357 14357 9157 White 31
3 PM Fri 81 87 SW 7 14357 14357 9157 White 31
4 PM Fri 82 87 SW 7 14357 14357 9157 White 31
5 PM Fri 82 85 SW 7 13940 13940 8740 White 29
6 PM Fri 81 82 W 8 13312 13312 8112 White 26
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 8 12680 12680 7480 White 23
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 11834 11834 6634 White 19
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 11195 9816 4616 White 16
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 9340 8266 3066 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SE 7 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 64 64 SE 7 8360 7341 2141 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 62 62 SE 7 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 60 60 SE 7 7140 5851 651 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 58 58 SE 7 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 56 56 SE 7 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 SE 8 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SE 8 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 60 61 SE 8 7353 6063 863 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 63 65 SE 8 8823 7553 2353 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 67 71 SE 8 10982 9563 4363 White 15
11 AM Sat 71 76 SE 8 12045 12045 6845 White 20
12 Noon Sat 74 79 S 7 12680 12680 7480 White 23
1 PM Sat 76 82 S 7 13312 13312 8112 White 26
2 PM Sat 78 83 S 7 13521 13521 8321 White 27
3 PM Sat 79 84 S 7 13730 13730 8530 White 28
4 PM Sat 79 83 S 7 13521 13521 8321 White 27
5 PM Sat 79 81 S 7 13101 13101 7901 White 25
6 PM Sat 77 78 SW 9 12469 12469 7269 White 22
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 9 11621 11621 6421 White 18
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 10982 9563 4363 White 15
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 9 9340 8266 3066 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 64 64 SW 9 8360 7341 2141 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 S 7 7353 6063 863 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 59 59 S 7 6838 5581 381 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 56 56 S 7 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 S 7 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 S 8 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 S 8 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 S 8 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 S 8 6838 5581 381 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 60 62 S 8 7566 6800 1600 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 62 66 S 8 9082 7763 2563 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 64 68 SW 8 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 65 69 SW 8 9851 9053 3853 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 66 70 SW 8 10768 9309 4109 White 14
3 PM Sun 67 70 SW 8 10768 9309 4109 White 14
4 PM Sun 68 70 SW 8 10768 9309 4109 White 14
5 PM Sun 68 70 SW 8 10768 9309 4109 White 14
6 PM Sun 67 68 W 10 9596 8796 3596 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 9082 7763 2563 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 10 7778 7130 1930 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 7353 6063 863 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 6067 5200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 5853 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 5 4828 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 W 5 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 5 4770 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 W 5 4770 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com