Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 35 35 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 S 12 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 S 12 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 41 S 12 5397 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 46 SE 16 6367 6042 842 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 49 50 SE 16 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 51 52 SE 16 8600 6921 1721 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 53 54 S 14 9461 7414 2214 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 54 54 S 14 9461 7414 2214 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 54 54 S 14 9461 7414 2214 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 53 53 S 16 9152 7168 1968 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 52 52 S 16 8600 6921 1721 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 51 51 S 16 7428 6673 1473 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 50 50 S 17 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 50 50 S 17 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 50 50 S 17 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 50 50 S 21 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 S 21 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 49 49 S 21 6932 6365 1165 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 21 6932 6365 1165 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 21 6682 6283 1083 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 21 6682 6283 1083 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 47 47 SE 21 6450 6200 1000 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 46 46 SE 21 6367 6042 842 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 44 44 SE 21 6202 5398 198 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 44 44 S 21 6202 5398 198 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 21 6284 5582 382 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 48 48 S 21 6682 6283 1083 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 50 50 S 20 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 50 50 S 20 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 50 50 S 20 7181 6448 1248 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 49 49 SW 15 6932 6365 1165 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 48 48 SW 15 6682 6283 1083 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 47 47 SW 15 6450 6200 1000 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 13 6367 6042 842 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 44 44 W 13 6202 5398 198 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 13 5582 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 13 5212 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 W 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 33 NW 15 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 33 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 34 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 34 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 33 33 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 33 33 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 32 32 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 31 31 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 NW 13 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 28 28 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 29 29 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 30 30 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 30 30 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 30 30 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 25 25 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 SW 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 S 8 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 27 27 S 9 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 29 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 30 30 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 32 32 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 32 32 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 33 33 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 SE 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 29 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 29 29 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 29 29 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 S 6 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 33 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 35 36 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 38 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 38 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 38 38 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 37 37 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 36 36 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 35 35 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 33 33 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 S 7 5075 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com