Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 68 68 SE 18 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 SE 18 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 SE 18 5614 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 70 S 23 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 76 S 23 8265 6547 1347 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 78 81 S 23 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 80 84 S 26 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 82 87 S 26 17755 16576 11376 White 16
2 PM Sun 84 89 S 26 18163 17241 12041 White 18
3 PM Sun 84 88 SW 26 17959 16838 11638 White 17
4 PM Sun 86 89 SW 26 18163 17241 12041 White 18
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 26 16981 16049 10849 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 13 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 13 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 13 14958 7023 1823 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 75 75 SE 12 7670 6279 1079 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 73 73 SE 12 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 73 73 SE 12 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 SE 16 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 72 72 SE 16 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 72 72 SE 16 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 72 72 SE 17 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 70 70 SE 17 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SE 17 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 SE 17 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 17 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 SE 17 5614 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 70 SE 21 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 76 SE 21 8265 6547 1347 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 77 80 SE 21 15616 10248 5048 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 80 84 S 21 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 83 88 S 21 17959 16838 11638 White 17
2 PM Mon 84 89 S 21 18163 17241 12041 White 18
3 PM Mon 85 89 SW 18 18163 17241 12041 White 18
4 PM Mon 85 88 SW 18 17959 16838 11638 White 17
5 PM Mon 85 87 SW 18 17755 16576 11376 White 16
6 PM Mon 84 84 S 13 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 81 81 S 13 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 13 14958 7023 1823 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 74 74 S 13 7051 6024 824 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 73 73 S 13 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 73 73 S 13 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 SE 14 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 73 73 SE 14 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 72 72 SE 14 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 71 71 SE 14 6026 5717 517 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 SE 14 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 SE 14 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 SE 18 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 SE 18 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 SE 18 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 69 SE 18 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 74 SE 18 7051 6024 824 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 76 79 SE 18 15353 8217 3017 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 79 84 S 22 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 81 86 S 22 17407 16312 11112 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 83 88 S 22 17959 16838 11638 White 17
3 PM Tue 84 89 S 22 18163 17241 12041 White 18
4 PM Tue 85 88 S 22 17959 16838 11638 White 17
5 PM Tue 85 87 S 22 17755 16576 11376 White 16
6 PM Tue 83 83 S 13 16408 15529 10329 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 79 79 S 13 15353 8217 3017 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 75 75 S 13 7670 6279 1079 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 71 71 S 13 6026 5717 517 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 S 13 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 S 13 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 S 17 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 S 17 5923 5614 414 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 S 17 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 S 17 5614 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 17 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 S 17 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 64 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 68 S 8 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 73 S 8 6556 5922 722 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 73 77 SW 9 14958 7023 1823 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 76 81 SW 9 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 77 82 SW 9 16140 15309 10109 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 78 82 SW 9 16140 15309 10109 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 9 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 77 79 SW 9 15353 8217 3017 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 75 75 NW 9 7670 6279 1079 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 72 72 NW 9 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 9 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 NW 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SE 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SE 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SE 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 SE 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 SE 5 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 SE 5 5614 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 71 SW 5 6026 5717 517 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 74 SW 5 7051 6024 824 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 71 76 SW 5 8265 6547 1347 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 72 76 SW 5 8265 6547 1347 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 5 8265 6547 1347 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 73 75 SW 5 7670 6279 1079 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 5820 5512 312 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 5512 5453 253 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 S 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 S 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 67 S 9 5614 5453 253 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 72 S 9 6285 5819 619 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 73 78 S 13 15218 7631 2431 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 76 81 S 13 15879 15175 9975 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 77 82 S 13 16140 15309 10109 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 79 84 S 13 16673 15790 10590 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 80 83 S 13 16408 15529 10329 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 80 82 S 13 16140 15309 10109 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 79 79 SW 13 15353 8217 3017 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 13 7670 6279 1079 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 13 6026 5717 517 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 SW 13 5717 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 13 5512 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 13 5512 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 S 8 5512 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 S 8 5453 5453 253 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com