Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 28 28 NE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 25 25 E 8 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 E 8 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 36 37 SE 8 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 39 40 SE 8 7314 6952 1752 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 42 43 SE 8 8559 7286 2086 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 43 44 N 7 8789 7788 2588 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 42 42 N 7 8322 7175 1975 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 39 39 N 7 7181 6841 1641 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 36 36 N 9 6846 6157 957 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 34 34 N 9 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 32 32 N 9 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 31 31 E 8 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 31 31 E 8 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 31 31 E 8 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 31 31 SE 9 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 SE 9 5717 5492 292 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 SE 9 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 SE 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 SE 10 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 SE 10 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 38 39 S 10 7181 6841 1641 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 41 42 S 10 8322 7175 1975 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 43 44 S 10 8789 7788 2588 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 44 45 S 9 9006 8277 3077 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 43 43 S 9 8559 7286 2086 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 41 41 S 9 7825 7064 1864 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 7069 6680 1480 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 6846 6157 957 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 34 34 S 9 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 33 33 S 9 6160 5717 517 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 32 32 S 9 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 32 32 S 9 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 32 32 SW 9 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 SW 9 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 31 31 SW 9 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 31 31 NW 12 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 12 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 31 31 NW 12 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 30 30 N 10 5717 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 N 10 5865 5492 292 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 34 34 N 14 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 36 37 N 14 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 37 38 N 14 7069 6680 1480 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 37 37 N 13 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 36 36 N 13 6846 6157 957 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 35 35 N 13 6690 6011 811 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 33 33 N 13 6160 5717 517 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 32 32 N 13 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 30 30 N 13 5717 5492 292 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 N 10 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 23 23 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 25 25 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 29 N 9 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 32 33 N 9 6160 5717 517 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 34 35 N 9 6690 6011 811 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 36 37 N 9 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 36 37 NW 9 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 35 35 NW 9 6690 6011 811 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 34 34 NW 9 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 6013 5578 378 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 30 30 NW 10 5717 5492 292 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 29 29 NW 10 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 NE 8 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 NE 8 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 NE 8 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 25 25 E 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 E 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 E 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 SE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 SE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 SE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 23 23 SE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 26 26 SE 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 29 SE 9 5578 5492 292 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 34 S 9 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 36 37 S 9 6958 6392 1192 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 38 39 S 9 7181 6841 1641 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 39 40 NW 9 7314 6952 1752 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 38 38 NW 9 7069 6680 1480 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 36 36 NW 9 6846 6157 957 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 34 34 N 9 6400 5864 664 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 0 1 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 0 1 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 0 2 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 0 2 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 0 1 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 5492 5492 292 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com