Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 75 75 SE 10 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 SE 10 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 SE 10 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 78 S 13 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 83 S 13 8838 6033 833 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 87 89 S 13 15074 12656 7456 White 10
12 Noon Sat 90 93 S 10 15903 15903 10703 White 14
1 PM Sat 92 95 S 10 16315 16315 11115 White 16
2 PM Sat 94 97 S 10 16726 16726 11526 White 18
3 PM Sat 93 96 W 7 16521 16521 11321 White 17
4 PM Sat 93 95 W 7 16315 16315 11115 White 16
5 PM Sat 94 96 W 7 16521 16521 11321 White 17
6 PM Sat 94 94 W 6 16109 16109 10909 White 15
7 PM Sat 93 93 W 6 15903 15903 10703 White 14
8 PM Sat 90 90 W 6 15282 13962 8762 White 11
9 PM Sat 85 85 SE 6 11260 7655 2455 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 85 85 SE 6 11260 7655 2455 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 83 83 SE 6 8838 6033 833 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 SE 14 6421 5516 316 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 79 79 SE 14 5701 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 80 80 SE 14 6038 5331 131 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 78 78 SE 13 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 SE 13 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SE 13 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 SE 8 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 SE 8 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 SE 8 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 77 S 6 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 82 S 6 7731 5700 500 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 83 84 S 6 9816 6399 1199 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 85 87 W 7 14283 9697 4497 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 88 90 W 7 15282 13962 8762 White 11
2 PM Sun 88 90 W 7 15282 13962 8762 White 11
3 PM Sun 89 91 NW 7 15489 14936 9736 White 12
4 PM Sun 89 90 NW 7 15282 13962 8762 White 11
5 PM Sun 90 91 NW 7 15489 14936 9736 White 12
6 PM Sun 89 89 NW 9 15074 12656 7456 White 10
7 PM Sun 87 87 NW 9 14283 9697 4497 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 83 83 NW 9 8838 6033 833 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 79 79 NW 9 5701 5223 23 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 77 77 NW 9 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 NW 9 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 74 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 80 E 6 6038 5331 131 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 81 85 E 6 11260 7655 2455 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 84 89 NW 7 15074 12656 7456 White 10
1 PM Mon 87 93 NW 7 15903 15903 10703 White 14
2 PM Mon 89 95 NW 7 16315 16315 11115 White 16
3 PM Mon 90 95 NW 7 16315 16315 11115 White 16
4 PM Mon 91 95 NW 7 16315 16315 11115 White 16
5 PM Mon 91 94 NW 7 16109 16109 10909 White 15
6 PM Mon 90 91 N 6 15489 14936 9736 White 12
7 PM Mon 88 88 N 6 14866 10883 5683 White 9
8 PM Mon 84 84 N 6 9816 6399 1199 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 81 81 N 6 6421 5516 316 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 78 78 N 6 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 76 76 N 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 74 74 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 73 73 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 72 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 E 3 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 E 6 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 77 E 6 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 83 E 6 8838 6033 833 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 85 89 E 6 15074 12656 7456 White 10
12 Noon Tue 88 93 SW 3 15903 15903 10703 White 14
1 PM Tue 91 96 SW 3 16521 16521 11321 White 17
2 PM Tue 92 97 SW 3 16726 16726 11526 White 18
3 PM Tue 93 98 SW 3 16931 16931 11731 White 19
4 PM Tue 93 97 SW 3 16726 16726 11526 White 18
5 PM Tue 93 96 SW 3 16521 16521 11321 White 17
6 PM Tue 92 93 N 8 15903 15903 10703 White 14
7 PM Tue 89 89 N 8 15074 12656 7456 White 10
8 PM Tue 85 85 N 8 11260 7655 2455 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 82 82 N 8 7731 5700 500 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 79 79 N 8 5701 5223 23 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 N 8 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 N 5 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 N 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 N 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 N 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 78 SE 5 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 82 SE 5 7731 5700 500 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 84 88 SE 5 14866 10883 5683 White 9
12 Noon Wed 87 92 SW 5 15696 15696 10496 White 13
1 PM Wed 89 94 SW 5 16109 16109 10909 White 15
2 PM Wed 91 96 SW 5 16521 16521 11321 White 17
3 PM Wed 92 97 SW 5 16726 16726 11526 White 18
4 PM Wed 93 97 SW 5 16726 16726 11526 White 18
5 PM Wed 93 96 SW 5 16521 16521 11321 White 17
6 PM Wed 92 93 NW 7 15903 15903 10703 White 14
7 PM Wed 89 89 NW 7 15074 12656 7456 White 10
8 PM Wed 85 85 NW 7 11260 7655 2455 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 81 81 NW 7 6421 5516 316 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 79 79 NW 7 5701 5223 23 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 NW 7 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 78 SE 5 5515 5223 23 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 82 SE 5 7731 5700 500 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 84 88 SE 5 14866 10883 5683 White 9
12 Noon Thu 87 92 SW 5 15696 15696 10496 White 13
1 PM Thu 90 95 SW 5 16315 16315 11115 White 16
2 PM Thu 92 97 SW 5 16726 16726 11526 White 18
3 PM Thu 93 98 SW 5 16931 16931 11731 White 19
4 PM Thu 94 98 SW 5 16931 16931 11731 White 19
5 PM Thu 94 97 SW 5 16726 16726 11526 White 18
6 PM Thu 93 94 NW 9 16109 16109 10909 White 15
7 PM Thu 90 90 NW 9 15282 13962 8762 White 11
8 PM Thu 87 87 NW 9 14283 9697 4497 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 83 83 NW 9 8838 6033 833 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 80 80 NW 9 6038 5331 131 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 77 77 NW 9 5329 5223 23 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 75 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 SE 5 5223 5223 23 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com