Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 34 34 N 7 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 NW 7 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 NW 7 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 34 NW 7 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 33 S 7 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 35 S 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 38 S 7 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 SW 7 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 SW 7 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 35 35 SW 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 SW 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 S 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 S 7 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 S 7 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 SE 8 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 SE 8 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 SE 8 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 SE 9 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 SE 9 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 SE 9 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 SE 9 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 SE 9 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 32 SE 9 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 35 S 14 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 39 S 14 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 41 S 14 7367 6262 1062 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 41 41 S 14 7367 6262 1062 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 41 41 S 14 7367 6262 1062 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 40 40 S 14 6948 6120 920 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 38 38 S 12 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 S 12 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 35 35 S 12 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 S 12 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 S 12 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 S 12 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 S 10 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 S 10 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 S 10 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 S 10 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 S 10 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 S 10 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 S 15 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 S 15 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 S 15 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 S 15 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 S 15 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 33 S 15 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 S 17 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 39 S 17 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 S 17 7367 6262 1062 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 42 42 S 17 7779 6509 1309 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 41 41 S 17 7367 6262 1062 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 17 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 S 9 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 S 9 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 S 9 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 S 9 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 S 9 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 S 9 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 S 9 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 S 9 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 S 9 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 S 9 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 S 9 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 S 9 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 S 9 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 S 9 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 S 9 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 S 9 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 S 9 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 38 S 9 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 39 S 7 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 40 S 7 6948 6120 920 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 40 40 S 7 6948 6120 920 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 40 40 S 7 6948 6120 920 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 39 39 S 7 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 S 7 6522 5978 778 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 W 6 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 6 6265 5836 636 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 W 6 6123 5694 494 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 W 6 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 W 6 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 7 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 W 7 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 W 7 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 W 7 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 W 7 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 7 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 NW 8 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 NW 8 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 8 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 NW 8 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 NW 8 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 35 NW 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 36 36 NW 7 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 36 36 NW 7 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 36 36 NW 7 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 35 35 NW 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 35 NW 7 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 34 W 5 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 W 5 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 W 5 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 W 5 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 W 5 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 W 5 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 24 24 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 22 22 S 6 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 S 8 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 S 8 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 S 8 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 S 8 4836 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 30 S 8 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 32 S 8 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 33 S 8 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 35 S 8 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 35 36 S 8 5980 5552 352 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 35 35 S 8 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 S 8 5837 5409 209 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 S 8 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 34 34 S 6 5694 5267 67 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 5552 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 S 6 5409 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 S 6 5266 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 30 30 S 6 5123 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 S 6 4979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 23 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 22 22 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 22 22 S 7 4793 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com