Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 22 22 S 3 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 S 3 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 S 3 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 22 SE 2 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 SE 2 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 33 SE 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 36 37 S 5 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 38 40 S 5 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 41 43 S 5 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 43 44 NW 5 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 43 44 NW 5 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 43 43 NW 5 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 38 38 NW 3 8385 7477 2277 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 34 34 NW 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 33 33 NW 3 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 33 33 N 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 32 32 N 2 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 31 31 E 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 E 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 31 31 E 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 31 31 SE 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 31 31 SE 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 31 31 SE 2 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 31 31 SE 3 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 29 29 SE 3 5414 5407 207 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 SE 3 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 SE 2 5414 5407 207 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 33 SE 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 39 39 SE 2 8457 7854 2654 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 42 44 W 5 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 44 46 W 5 8892 8605 3405 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 48 50 W 5 9686 9051 3851 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 49 50 NW 5 9686 9051 3851 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 48 49 NW 5 9432 8872 3672 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 46 46 NW 5 8892 8605 3405 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 43 43 NW 5 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 40 40 NW 5 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 38 38 NW 5 8385 7477 2277 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 36 36 NW 3 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 35 35 NW 3 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 34 34 NW 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 34 34 E 2 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 E 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 33 33 E 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 33 33 SE 2 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 32 32 SE 2 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 32 32 SE 2 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 3 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 3 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 3 5414 5407 207 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 E 3 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 E 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 39 40 E 3 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 44 45 SW 3 8712 8568 3368 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 47 49 SW 3 9432 8872 3672 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 49 51 SW 3 10014 9230 4030 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 50 51 SW 3 10014 9230 4030 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 49 50 SW 3 9686 9051 3851 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 48 48 SW 3 9252 8693 3493 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 45 45 NW 5 8712 8568 3368 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 43 43 NW 5 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 38 38 NW 5 8385 7477 2277 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 37 37 NW 5 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 37 37 NW 5 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 36 36 SE 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 5 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 34 34 S 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 33 33 S 5 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 32 32 S 5 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 33 33 S 5 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 35 35 S 5 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 40 41 S 5 8535 8364 3164 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 44 45 S 5 8712 8568 3368 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 48 49 S 5 9432 8872 3672 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 50 51 S 5 10014 9230 4030 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 51 52 S 5 10339 9408 4208 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 50 50 S 5 9686 9051 3851 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 48 48 S 5 9252 8693 3493 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 45 45 NW 3 8712 8568 3368 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 43 43 NW 3 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 40 40 NW 3 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 38 38 NW 3 8385 7477 2277 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 37 37 NW 3 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 36 36 NW 3 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 35 35 S 5 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 35 35 S 5 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 34 34 S 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 34 34 S 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 40 40 S 5 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 44 45 NW 3 8712 8568 3368 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 47 48 NW 3 9252 8693 3493 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 48 49 NW 3 9432 8872 3672 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 48 49 NW 3 9432 8872 3672 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 47 47 NW 3 9072 8642 3442 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 3 8892 8605 3405 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 6 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 42 42 NW 6 8572 8451 3251 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 40 40 NW 6 8498 8145 2945 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 6 8385 7477 2277 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 37 37 NW 6 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 36 36 NW 6 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 35 35 N 3 7502 6686 1486 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 N 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 33 33 N 3 6875 6057 857 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 32 32 NE 3 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 31 31 NE 3 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 30 30 NE 3 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 NE 3 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 NE 3 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 35 36 NE 3 7883 6868 1668 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 38 39 SW 2 8457 7854 2654 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 40 42 SW 2 8572 8451 3251 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 42 44 SW 2 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 43 44 SW 2 8645 8531 3331 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 43 43 SW 2 8608 8494 3294 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 41 41 SW 2 8535 8364 3164 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 39 39 NW 5 8457 7854 2654 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 37 37 NW 5 8164 7095 1895 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 34 34 NW 5 7115 6504 1304 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 32 32 NW 5 6693 5417 217 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 31 31 NW 5 6509 5407 207 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 30 30 NW 5 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 E 2 6065 5407 207 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 E 2 5414 5407 207 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 E 2 5414 5407 207 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 E 2 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 E 2 5407 5407 207 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 E 2 5407 5407 207 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com