Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 20 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 20 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 NW 20 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 SW 16 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 SW 16 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 45 SW 16 8100 6934 1734 White 4
12 Noon Fri 47 49 SW 14 8977 8977 3777 White 8
1 PM Fri 49 52 SW 14 9635 9635 4435 White 11
2 PM Fri 51 54 SW 14 10068 10068 4868 White 13
3 PM Fri 52 54 N 14 10068 10068 4868 White 13
4 PM Fri 53 54 N 14 10068 10068 4868 White 13
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 14 9417 9417 4217 White 10
6 PM Fri 50 50 NE 9 9196 9196 3996 White 9
7 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 8100 6934 1734 White 4
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 9 7658 5476 276 White 2
9 PM Fri 42 42 SE 9 7435 5476 276 White 1
10 PM Fri 41 41 SE 9 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 SE 9 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SE 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 SE 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 SE 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 15 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 SE 15 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 SE 15 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 SE 16 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 SE 16 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 SE 16 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 S 18 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 S 18 7435 5476 276 White 1
11 AM Sat 47 48 S 18 8757 8757 3557 White 7
12 Noon Sat 50 50 S 20 9196 9196 3996 White 9
1 PM Sat 53 54 S 20 10068 10068 4868 White 13
2 PM Sat 55 56 S 20 10492 10492 5292 White 15
3 PM Sat 56 56 SW 25 10492 10492 5292 White 15
4 PM Sat 55 55 SW 25 10281 10281 5081 White 14
5 PM Sat 53 53 SW 25 9854 9854 4654 White 12
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 31 9196 9196 3996 White 9
7 PM Sat 46 46 W 31 8318 8318 3118 White 5
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 31 7658 5476 276 White 2
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 31 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 W 31 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 31 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 29 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 31 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 34 NW 21 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 37 NW 14 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 40 NW 14 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 41 NW 14 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 43 NW 14 7658 5476 276 White 2
4 PM Sun 42 42 NW 14 7435 5476 276 White 1
5 PM Sun 42 42 NW 14 7435 5476 276 White 1
6 PM Sun 40 40 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SE 12 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 30 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 32 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 36 S 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 39 40 W 13 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 W 13 7880 5896 696 White 3
2 PM Mon 46 47 W 13 8537 8537 3337 White 6
3 PM Mon 48 49 W 13 8977 8977 3777 White 8
4 PM Mon 48 48 W 13 8757 8757 3557 White 7
5 PM Mon 47 47 W 13 8537 8537 3337 White 6
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 6 8757 8757 3557 White 7
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 6 8757 8757 3557 White 7
8 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 8318 8318 3118 White 5
9 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 7880 5896 696 White 3
10 PM Mon 42 42 NW 6 7435 5476 276 White 1
11 PM Mon 40 40 NW 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 S 6 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 S 8 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 S 8 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 7435 5476 276 White 1
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 8 8100 6934 1734 White 4
11 AM Tue 47 48 S 8 8757 8757 3557 White 7
12 Noon Tue 50 52 S 7 9635 9635 4435 White 11
1 PM Tue 52 55 S 7 10281 10281 5081 White 14
2 PM Tue 54 57 S 7 10704 10704 5504 White 16
3 PM Tue 56 58 S 7 10915 10915 5715 White 17
4 PM Tue 57 58 S 7 10915 10915 5715 White 17
5 PM Tue 57 57 S 7 10704 10704 5504 White 16
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 6 10704 10704 5504 White 16
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 6 10281 10281 5081 White 14
8 PM Tue 53 53 SW 6 9854 9854 4654 White 12
9 PM Tue 50 50 SW 6 9196 9196 3996 White 9
10 PM Tue 48 48 SW 6 8757 8757 3557 White 7
11 PM Tue 45 45 SW 6 8100 6934 1734 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 S 7 7435 5476 276 White 1
1 AM Wed 40 40 S 7 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 S 7 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 S 7 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 7 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 7 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SW 8 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SW 8 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SW 8 7658 5476 276 White 2
10 AM Wed 46 46 SW 8 8318 8318 3118 White 5
11 AM Wed 48 49 SW 8 8977 8977 3777 White 8
12 Noon Wed 50 52 NW 9 9635 9635 4435 White 11
1 PM Wed 52 55 NW 9 10281 10281 5081 White 14
2 PM Wed 53 56 NW 9 10492 10492 5292 White 15
3 PM Wed 54 56 NW 9 10492 10492 5292 White 15
4 PM Wed 54 55 NW 9 10281 10281 5081 White 14
5 PM Wed 53 53 NW 9 9854 9854 4654 White 12
6 PM Wed 52 52 NW 9 9635 9635 4435 White 11
7 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 9196 9196 3996 White 9
8 PM Wed 47 47 NW 9 8537 8537 3337 White 6
9 PM Wed 44 44 NW 9 7880 5896 696 White 3
10 PM Wed 41 41 NW 9 5899 5476 276 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NW 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 5476 5476 276 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com