Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NNE 5 8 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 5 8 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 5 8 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 9 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 9 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 9 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 ESE 10 16 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 10 16 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 57 ESE 10 16 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 61 SSE 12 17 7621 6490 1290 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 63 65 SSE 12 17 9289 7957 2757 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 65 67 SSE 12 17 12755 8664 3464 White 9
3 PM Sun 67 69 W 9 18 13180 10608 5408 White 11
4 PM Sun 68 69 W 9 18 13180 10608 5408 White 11
5 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 18 10800 8313 3113 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 64 64 N 11 17 8698 7597 2397 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 11 17 7985 6863 1663 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 11 17 6501 5718 518 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NNE 6 10 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 6 10 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NNE 6 10 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SE 8 11 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 SE 8 11 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 8 11 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 ESE 8 11 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 ESE 8 11 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 ESE 8 11 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 ESE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 ESE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 ESE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 SE 6 10 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 SE 6 10 6879 5955 755 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 60 64 S 6 9 8698 7597 2397 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 64 68 S 6 9 12968 9060 3860 White 10
2 PM Mon 66 70 S 6 9 13392 11671 6471 White 12
3 PM Mon 67 70 NNW 8 11 13392 11671 6471 White 12
4 PM Mon 67 69 NNW 8 11 13180 10608 5408 White 11
5 PM Mon 66 67 NNW 8 11 12755 8664 3464 White 9
6 PM Mon 64 64 NNW 13 19 8698 7597 2397 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 62 62 NNW 13 19 7985 6863 1663 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 13 19 6879 5955 755 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 13 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 10 13 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 13 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NE 6 9 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 9 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 9 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 9 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 9 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 9 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 SE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 SE 6 10 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 59 SE 6 10 6879 5955 755 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 60 64 NW 8 11 8698 7597 2397 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 63 67 NW 8 11 12755 8664 3464 White 9
2 PM Tue 66 70 NW 8 11 13392 11671 6471 White 12
3 PM Tue 67 70 NNW 8 11 13392 11671 6471 White 12
4 PM Tue 67 69 NNW 8 11 13180 10608 5408 White 11
5 PM Tue 66 67 NNW 8 11 12755 8664 3464 White 9
6 PM Tue 64 64 NNW 10 16 8698 7597 2397 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 61 61 NNW 10 16 7621 6490 1290 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 58 58 NNW 10 16 6501 5718 518 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 9 13 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 N 9 13 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 9 13 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 6 10 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 10 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 10 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 SE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 8 10 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 60 SE 8 10 7252 6190 990 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 61 65 SW 6 9 9289 7957 2757 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 65 69 SW 6 9 13180 10608 5408 White 11
2 PM Wed 67 71 SW 6 9 13604 12605 7405 White 13
3 PM Wed 69 73 NNW 5 8 14026 14026 8826 White 15
4 PM Wed 69 71 NNW 5 8 13604 12605 7405 White 13
5 PM Wed 68 69 NNW 5 8 13180 10608 5408 White 11
6 PM Wed 66 66 NNW 10 14 10800 8313 3113 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 63 63 NNW 10 14 8345 7232 2032 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 10 14 7252 6190 990 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 10 6501 5718 518 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 N 8 10 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 10 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 ENE 5 9 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 5 9 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 5 9 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 6 10 5241 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 6 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 8 10 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 11 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 SE 8 11 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 61 SE 8 11 7621 6490 1290 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 62 66 SSW 6 10 10800 8313 3113 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 66 70 SSW 6 10 13392 11671 6471 White 12
2 PM Thu 68 72 SSW 6 10 13815 13815 8615 White 14
3 PM Thu 70 73 W 6 10 14026 14026 8826 White 15
4 PM Thu 70 72 W 6 10 13815 13815 8615 White 14
5 PM Thu 68 69 W 6 10 13180 10608 5408 White 11
6 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 10 13 10800 8313 3113 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 10 13 8345 7232 2032 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 60 60 NNW 10 13 7252 6190 990 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 8 10 6501 5718 518 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 10 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 10 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 E 5 9 6195 5481 281 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 9 5720 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 9 5480 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 8 11 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 8 11 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 ESE 8 11 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SE 9 13 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 SE 9 13 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 SE 9 13 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 SSE 10 14 5128 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 SSE 10 14 5958 5243 43 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 62 SSE 10 14 7985 6863 1663 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 64 67 S 9 13 12755 8664 3464 White 9
1 PM Fri 67 71 S 9 13 13604 12605 7405 White 13
2 PM Fri 70 74 S 9 13 14237 14237 9037 White 16
3 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 8 10 14237 14237 9037 White 16
4 PM Fri 71 73 WSW 8 10 14026 14026 8826 White 15
5 PM Fri 71 72 WSW 8 10 13815 13815 8615 White 14
6 PM Fri 69 69 NNW 9 11 13180 10608 5408 White 11
7 PM Fri 66 66 NNW 9 11 10800 8313 3113 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 9 11 8345 7232 2032 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 60 60 NNE 8 10 7252 6190 990 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 59 59 NNE 8 10 6879 5955 755 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com