Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 S 17 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 S 17 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 55 S 17 6925 5839 639 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 57 60 S 12 12818 9041 3841 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 61 65 S 12 14279 13531 8331 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 64 68 S 12 16094 14243 9043 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 67 70 S 12 17605 14488 9288 White 18
4 PM Tue 67 69 S 12 17113 14365 9165 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 68 69 S 12 17113 14365 9165 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 14878 14120 8920 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 10 14156 13266 8066 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 10 11257 6909 1709 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 15 6925 5839 639 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 15 6547 5677 477 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 15 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 S 17 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 17 5187 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 17 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 17 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 17 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 17 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 S 15 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 S 16 5187 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 S 16 6164 5514 314 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 57 59 S 16 11983 7278 2078 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 59 61 S 15 13327 10952 5752 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 62 64 S 15 14156 13266 8066 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 64 66 S 15 14402 13997 8797 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 67 69 S 18 17113 14365 9165 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 68 69 S 18 17113 14365 9165 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 69 69 S 18 17113 14365 9165 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 68 68 S 17 16094 14243 9043 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 65 65 S 17 14279 13531 8331 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 60 60 S 17 12818 9041 3841 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 56 56 S 17 7298 6157 957 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 54 54 S 17 6547 5677 477 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 52 52 S 17 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 22 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 S 22 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 S 22 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 22 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 S 22 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 22 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 S 10 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 S 10 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 S 10 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 S 10 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 44 S 10 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 47 S 10 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 49 W 6 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 NW 12 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 12 5187 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NW 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NW 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NW 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 NW 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NW 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 40 W 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 42 NW 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 44 NW 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 46 NW 7 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 48 NW 7 5187 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 NW 7 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 NE 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 N 6 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 47 N 6 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 49 N 6 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 49 N 6 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 50 N 6 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 50 N 6 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 N 12 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 12 5187 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 N 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 N 12 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NE 5 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 43 N 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 47 NW 5 5024 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 50 NW 5 5514 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 52 NW 5 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 53 NW 5 6164 5514 314 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 51 53 NW 5 6164 5514 314 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 53 NW 5 6164 5514 314 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 8 5840 5352 152 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 8 5677 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 5351 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 SE 2 4911 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com