Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 60 60 SE 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 SE 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SE 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 71 SE 13 5869 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 75 SE 13 6891 6135 935 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 77 80 SE 13 10574 7930 2730 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 80 85 S 12 12853 12035 6835 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 82 88 S 12 16225 12796 7596 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 86 92 S 12 17074 16334 11134 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 88 93 W 10 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 89 93 W 10 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 89 91 W 10 16812 16159 10959 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 87 88 N 9 16225 12796 7596 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 84 84 N 9 12605 11268 6068 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 78 78 N 9 8917 6884 1684 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 76 76 E 8 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 76 76 E 8 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 74 74 E 8 6678 5867 667 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 S 10 6140 5325 125 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 10 5869 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 S 10 5597 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 SE 12 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 SE 12 5048 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 SE 12 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 S 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 S 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 S 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 SE 14 6140 5325 125 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 78 SE 14 8917 6884 1684 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 79 83 SE 14 12356 10440 5240 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 83 89 SW 7 16394 14042 8842 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 7 17074 16334 11134 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 86 93 SW 7 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 88 94 NW 12 17651 16715 11515 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 88 93 NW 12 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 87 90 NW 12 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 86 87 NW 14 15735 12550 7350 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 NW 14 12356 10440 5240 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 14 9759 7066 1866 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 76 76 NW 15 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 74 74 NW 15 6678 5867 667 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 NW 15 6140 5325 125 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 13 5597 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 13 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 13 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 N 10 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 NW 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 NW 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 NW 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 NW 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 73 NW 8 6410 5597 397 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 77 NW 8 8000 6669 1469 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 76 82 NW 10 12106 9656 4456 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 78 85 NW 10 12853 12035 6835 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 79 86 NW 10 14471 12303 7103 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 81 87 NW 10 15735 12550 7350 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 82 87 NW 10 15735 12550 7350 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 82 85 NW 10 12853 12035 6835 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 81 82 NW 13 12106 9656 4456 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 13 8000 6669 1469 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 13 6410 5597 397 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 NW 13 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 13 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 13 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 E 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 E 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 71 E 9 5869 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 76 E 9 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 76 82 NW 7 12106 9656 4456 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 79 86 NW 7 14471 12303 7103 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 82 89 NW 7 16394 14042 8842 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 84 90 NW 7 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 85 90 NW 7 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 85 88 NW 7 16225 12796 7596 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 84 85 NW 9 12853 12035 6835 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 82 82 NW 9 12106 9656 4456 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 9 9759 7066 1866 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 76 76 NW 9 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 9 6410 5597 397 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 NW 9 5597 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 SE 8 5597 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 76 SE 8 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 77 81 SE 8 11413 8829 3629 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 81 86 SW 6 14471 12303 7103 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 84 90 SW 6 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 86 92 SW 6 17074 16334 11134 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 88 93 SW 6 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 89 93 SW 6 17427 16502 11302 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 89 92 SW 6 17074 16334 11134 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 88 89 NW 9 16394 14042 8842 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 86 86 NW 9 14471 12303 7103 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 83 83 NW 9 12356 10440 5240 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 80 80 NW 9 10574 7930 2730 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 76 76 NW 9 7074 6403 1203 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 73 73 NW 9 6410 5597 397 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SE 8 5597 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SE 9 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 SE 9 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 SE 9 6410 5597 397 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 78 SE 9 8917 6884 1684 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 79 82 SE 9 12106 9656 4456 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 82 85 S 8 12853 12035 6835 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 85 88 S 8 16225 12796 7596 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 87 90 S 8 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 88 91 S 8 16812 16159 10959 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 89 91 S 8 16812 16159 10959 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 89 90 S 8 16563 15400 10200 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 9 16225 12796 7596 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 9 14471 12303 7103 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 9 12356 10440 5240 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 81 81 W 9 11413 8829 3629 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 9 8000 6669 1469 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 6678 5867 667 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SE 8 5869 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 SE 8 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 8 4892 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com