Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 47 47 SE 15 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SE 15 6746 5913 713 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 47 47 SE 15 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 17 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 17 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 N 17 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 43 W 21 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 42 W 21 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 40 W 21 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 38 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 36 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 NW 22 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 NW 16 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 NW 16 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 NW 16 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 NW 9 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 NW 9 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 NW 9 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 N 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 N 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 N 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 28 29 E 5 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 31 33 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 36 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 36 38 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 39 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 39 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 S 3 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 W 1 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 40 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 S 7 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 47 S 7 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 48 S 7 6746 5913 713 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 47 47 S 7 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 7 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 47 S 8 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 48 S 8 6746 5913 713 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 48 48 S 8 6746 5913 713 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 47 47 S 8 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 S 8 6244 5361 161 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 S 7 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 S 7 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 S 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 42 S 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 45 S 6 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 49 S 6 6915 6238 1038 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 50 51 S 6 7253 6740 1540 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 51 51 S 6 7253 6740 1540 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 51 51 S 6 7253 6740 1540 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 6 7084 6559 1359 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 49 49 SE 6 6915 6238 1038 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 47 47 SE 6 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 SE 6 6244 5361 161 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 SE 6 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 SE 6 5586 5361 161 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 SE 6 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SE 7 5361 5361 161 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 SE 7 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 S 7 7253 6740 1540 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 53 54 S 7 8940 7244 2044 White 7
1 PM Wed 55 56 S 7 9386 9386 4186 White 9
2 PM Wed 56 56 S 7 9386 9386 4186 White 9
3 PM Wed 56 56 S 7 9386 9386 4186 White 9
4 PM Wed 55 55 S 7 9163 7700 2500 White 8
5 PM Wed 54 54 SE 6 8940 7244 2044 White 7
6 PM Wed 52 52 SE 6 8493 6908 1708 White 5
7 PM Wed 50 50 SE 6 7084 6559 1359 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 49 49 SE 6 6915 6238 1038 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 48 48 SE 6 6746 5913 713 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 47 47 SE 6 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 7 6569 5586 386 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 7 6244 5361 161 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 7 6244 5361 161 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 S 7 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 7 5917 5361 161 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 S 7 5586 5361 161 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com