Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 3 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 3 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NE 3 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 SE 3 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 40 SE 3 6809 5568 368 White 1
11 AM Mon 42 44 SE 3 7694 7310 2110 White 5
12 Noon Mon 46 49 NW 5 8788 8788 3588 White 10
1 PM Mon 48 51 NW 5 9224 9224 4024 White 12
2 PM Mon 50 53 NW 5 9662 9662 4462 White 14
3 PM Mon 51 54 NW 8 9889 9889 4689 White 15
4 PM Mon 52 54 NW 8 9889 9889 4689 White 15
5 PM Mon 52 53 NW 8 9662 9662 4462 White 14
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 9224 9224 4024 White 12
7 PM Mon 50 50 N 10 9006 9006 3806 White 11
8 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 8571 8571 3371 White 9
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 7914 7548 2348 White 6
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 8 7473 7071 1871 White 4
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 8 7252 6831 1631 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 7 7030 6245 1045 White 2
1 AM Tue 40 40 NE 7 6809 5568 368 White 1
2 AM Tue 39 39 NE 7 6584 5200 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 6 6260 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 5568 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 E 6 5151 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 E 6 5568 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 E 6 6260 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 SW 3 6809 5568 368 White 1
10 AM Tue 44 45 SW 3 7914 7548 2348 White 6
11 AM Tue 47 50 SW 3 9006 9006 3806 White 11
12 Noon Tue 50 53 W 5 9662 9662 4462 White 14
1 PM Tue 53 57 W 5 10538 10538 5338 White 18
2 PM Tue 56 60 W 5 11173 11173 5973 White 21
3 PM Tue 57 60 NW 9 11173 11173 5973 White 21
4 PM Tue 58 60 NW 9 11173 11173 5973 White 21
5 PM Tue 58 59 NW 9 10962 10962 5762 White 20
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 10538 10538 5338 White 18
7 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 10112 10112 4912 White 16
8 PM Tue 52 52 N 10 9440 9440 4240 White 13
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 9006 9006 3806 White 11
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 10 8571 8571 3371 White 9
11 PM Tue 46 46 N 10 8135 8116 2916 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SE 6 7914 7548 2348 White 6
1 AM Wed 44 44 SE 6 7694 7310 2110 White 5
2 AM Wed 43 43 SE 6 7473 7071 1871 White 4
3 AM Wed 42 42 SE 6 7252 6831 1631 White 3
4 AM Wed 41 41 SE 6 7030 6245 1045 White 2
5 AM Wed 40 40 SE 6 6809 5568 368 White 1
6 AM Wed 40 40 SE 7 6809 5568 368 White 1
7 AM Wed 40 40 SE 7 6809 5568 368 White 1
8 AM Wed 42 42 SE 7 7252 6831 1631 White 3
9 AM Wed 45 45 SE 7 7914 7548 2348 White 6
10 AM Wed 48 49 SE 7 8788 8788 3588 White 10
11 AM Wed 53 56 SE 7 10325 10325 5125 White 17
12 Noon Wed 57 61 SW 6 11384 11384 6184 White 22
1 PM Wed 60 64 SW 6 12016 12016 6816 White 25
2 PM Wed 62 66 SW 6 12433 12433 7233 White 27
3 PM Wed 64 68 SW 6 12844 12844 7644 White 29
4 PM Wed 65 68 SW 6 12844 12844 7644 White 29
5 PM Wed 65 66 SW 6 12433 12433 7233 White 27
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 8 12016 12016 6816 White 25
7 PM Wed 61 61 N 8 11384 11384 6184 White 22
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 10749 10749 5549 White 19
9 PM Wed 55 55 N 8 10112 10112 4912 White 16
10 PM Wed 53 53 N 8 9662 9662 4462 White 14
11 PM Wed 52 52 N 8 9440 9440 4240 White 13
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SE 6 9224 9224 4024 White 12
1 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 8788 8788 3588 White 10
2 AM Thu 48 48 SE 6 8571 8571 3371 White 9
3 AM Thu 47 47 SE 6 8353 8353 3153 White 8
4 AM Thu 46 46 SE 6 8135 8116 2916 White 7
5 AM Thu 46 46 SE 6 8135 8116 2916 White 7
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 7914 7548 2348 White 6
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 7914 7548 2348 White 6
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 7914 7548 2348 White 6
9 AM Thu 47 47 NE 5 8353 8353 3153 White 8
10 AM Thu 50 51 NE 5 9224 9224 4024 White 12
11 AM Thu 54 56 NE 5 10325 10325 5125 White 17
12 Noon Thu 59 62 SE 3 11595 11595 6395 White 23
1 PM Thu 62 65 SE 3 12226 12226 7026 White 26
2 PM Thu 64 67 SE 3 12638 12638 7438 White 28
3 PM Thu 65 68 SE 3 12844 12844 7644 White 29
4 PM Thu 66 68 SE 3 12844 12844 7644 White 29
5 PM Thu 66 67 SE 3 12638 12638 7438 White 28
6 PM Thu 64 64 N 5 12016 12016 6816 White 25
7 PM Thu 62 62 N 5 11595 11595 6395 White 23
8 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 10962 10962 5762 White 20
9 PM Thu 56 56 N 5 10325 10325 5125 White 17
10 PM Thu 54 54 N 5 9889 9889 4689 White 15
11 PM Thu 53 53 N 5 9662 9662 4462 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 E 3 9440 9440 4240 White 13
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 9224 9224 4024 White 12
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 3 9006 9006 3806 White 11
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 8571 8571 3371 White 9
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 8353 8353 3153 White 8
5 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 8353 8353 3153 White 8
6 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 8135 8116 2916 White 7
7 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 8135 8116 2916 White 7
8 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 8353 8353 3153 White 8
9 AM Fri 49 49 SE 6 8788 8788 3588 White 10
10 AM Fri 52 53 SE 6 9662 9662 4462 White 14
11 AM Fri 56 58 SE 6 10749 10749 5549 White 19
12 Noon Fri 59 62 S 5 11595 11595 6395 White 23
1 PM Fri 62 66 S 5 12433 12433 7233 White 27
2 PM Fri 64 68 S 5 12844 12844 7644 White 29
3 PM Fri 66 69 S 5 13050 13050 7850 White 30
4 PM Fri 67 69 S 5 13050 13050 7850 White 30
5 PM Fri 67 68 S 5 12844 12844 7644 White 29
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 5 12433 12433 7233 White 27
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 5 12016 12016 6816 White 25
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 5 11384 11384 6184 White 22
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 5 10749 10749 5549 White 19
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 10325 10325 5125 White 17
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 5 9889 9889 4689 White 15
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SE 5 9662 9662 4462 White 14
1 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 9440 9440 4240 White 13
2 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 9224 9224 4024 White 12
3 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 9224 9224 4024 White 12
4 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 8788 8788 3588 White 10
5 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 8788 8788 3588 White 10
6 AM Sat 48 48 SE 6 8571 8571 3371 White 9
7 AM Sat 48 48 SE 6 8571 8571 3371 White 9
8 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 9006 9006 3806 White 11
9 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 9440 9440 4240 White 13
10 AM Sat 55 56 SE 6 10325 10325 5125 White 17
11 AM Sat 59 61 SE 6 11384 11384 6184 White 22
12 Noon Sat 62 65 S 6 12226 12226 7026 White 26
1 PM Sat 65 69 S 6 13050 13050 7850 White 30
2 PM Sat 67 70 S 6 13255 13255 8055 White 31
3 PM Sat 68 71 S 6 13460 13460 8260 White 32
4 PM Sat 68 70 S 6 13255 13255 8055 White 31
5 PM Sat 68 69 S 6 13050 13050 7850 White 30
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 12433 12433 7233 White 27
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 6 11806 11806 6606 White 24
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 6 11173 11173 5973 White 21
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 6 10538 10538 5338 White 18
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 10112 10112 4912 White 16
11 PM Sat 53 53 W 6 9662 9662 4462 White 14
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SE 5 9440 9440 4240 White 13
1 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 9224 9224 4024 White 12
2 AM Sun 50 50 SE 5 9006 9006 3806 White 11
3 AM Sun 49 49 SE 5 8788 8788 3588 White 10
4 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 8571 8571 3371 White 9
5 AM Sun 47 47 SE 5 8353 8353 3153 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com