Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 NW 1 2401 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 49 51 NW 1 2481 2427 1845 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 55 56 N 3 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 58 59 N 3 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 62 63 NW 5 6278 3503 2921 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 3910 3088 2506 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 59 59 NW 3 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 3 2890 2576 1994 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 55 55 NW 3 2657 2509 1927 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 3 2481 2427 1845 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 47 47 SW 3 2417 2393 1811 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 47 47 SW 3 2417 2393 1811 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 44 44 S 8 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 43 43 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 SW 10 2401 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 47 49 SW 10 2438 2409 1827 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 49 52 SW 10 2510 2438 1856 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 50 53 SW 10 2540 2451 1869 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 52 56 SW 10 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 53 56 SW 8 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 53 56 SW 8 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 52 54 SW 8 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 52 53 S 9 2540 2451 1869 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 50 50 S 9 2452 2417 1835 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 49 49 S 9 2438 2409 1827 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 46 46 S 9 2409 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 44 SW 7 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 47 48 W 12 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 47 48 W 12 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 48 50 W 12 2452 2417 1835 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 49 50 W 12 2452 2417 1835 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 49 50 W 12 2452 2417 1835 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 47 48 W 12 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 47 48 SW 9 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 2409 2388 1806 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 44 44 SW 9 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 42 42 SW 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 SW 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 SW 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 46 NE 7 2409 2388 1806 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 49 52 N 8 2510 2438 1856 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 50 54 N 8 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 52 56 N 8 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 55 59 N 8 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 55 58 N 8 3100 2653 2071 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 53 55 N 8 2657 2509 1927 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 53 54 W 5 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 5 2510 2438 1856 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 2452 2417 1835 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 46 46 W 5 2409 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 44 E 5 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 45 46 E 5 2409 2388 1806 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 51 53 NE 7 2540 2451 1869 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 52 54 NE 7 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 54 56 NE 7 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 57 59 NE 7 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 57 59 NE 7 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 55 56 NE 7 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 55 56 N 5 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 5 2540 2451 1869 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 5 2481 2427 1845 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 48 48 N 5 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 5 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 5 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 NE 8 2401 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 47 48 NE 8 2427 2401 1819 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 52 54 N 6 2580 2480 1898 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 6 2734 2538 1956 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 56 59 N 6 3310 2730 2148 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 59 61 N 6 3910 3088 2506 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 59 61 N 6 3910 3088 2506 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 56 57 N 6 2890 2576 1994 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 57 58 NW 5 3100 2653 2071 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 55 55 NW 5 2657 2509 1927 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 53 53 NW 5 2540 2451 1869 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 5 2438 2409 1827 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 45 45 NW 5 2401 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 5 2401 2388 1806 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 43 43 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com