Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 55 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 60 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 64 NW 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 63 NW 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 64 NW 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 S 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 S 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 S 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 57 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 69 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 70 NW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 69 NW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 69 NW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 66 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 71 N 5 6040 2388 1806 White 2
1 PM Wed 74 77 N 5 7300 7300 6718 White 7
2 PM Wed 76 79 N 5 7718 7718 7136 White 9
3 PM Wed 75 78 N 5 7509 7509 6927 White 8
4 PM Wed 75 77 N 5 7300 7300 6718 White 7
5 PM Wed 73 74 NE 3 6671 6671 6089 White 4
6 PM Wed 69 69 NE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 NE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 NE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 NE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 NE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 68 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 73 S 7 6462 6462 5880 White 3
1 PM Thu 76 79 S 7 7718 7718 7136 White 9
2 PM Thu 78 81 S 7 8135 8135 7553 White 11
3 PM Thu 77 80 S 7 7927 7927 7345 White 10
4 PM Thu 77 79 S 7 7718 7718 7136 White 9
5 PM Thu 75 76 S 6 7091 7091 6509 White 6
6 PM Thu 71 71 S 6 6040 2388 1806 White 2
7 PM Thu 67 67 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 61 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 63 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 67 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 65 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 59 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 61 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 65 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 65 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 65 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com