Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.8605, -122.126, 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 E 1 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 E 2 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 ESE 2 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 E 2 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 ESE 3 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 E 3 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 E 3 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 4 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 ESE 2 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 WNW 0 0 2675 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 54 56 NW 1 1 3726 3030 2448 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 58 61 WNW 3 3 6403 4520 3938 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 60 63 WNW 3 3 7450 5781 5199 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 61 65 W 3 4 10214 6847 6265 White 15
2 PM Thu 62 66 W 3 4 10418 7356 6774 White 16
3 PM Thu 62 65 W 3 3 10214 6847 6265 White 15
4 PM Thu 61 63 W 3 4 7450 5781 5199 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 2 3 5854 4086 3504 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 54 54 NW 1 1 3217 2670 2088 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 48 48 E 2 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 ESE 4 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 ESE 3 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 ESE 3 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SE 2 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SSE 2 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 S 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 2 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 5 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 4 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 SE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 SE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SE 4 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 46 SE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 47 SE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 SE 5 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 39 39 SE 5 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 ESE 6 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 SE 6 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 SSE 7 15 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 S 9 19 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 SW 8 18 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 WSW 6 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 WSW 6 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SSW 2 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 2 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 4 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SW 3 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 4 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 5 7 2675 2388 1806 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 52 52 WSW 6 7 2856 2388 1806 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 3 5 2494 2388 1806 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 SW 1 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 49 S 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 50 S 2 4 2494 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 48 48 SE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 51 SE 2 3 2675 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 52 52 S 3 4 2856 2388 1806 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 46 46 SSW 4 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 SSW 4 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 S 3 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 S 3 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 SE 4 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 SE 5 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 SE 5 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SE 4 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 ESE 4 10 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com