Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 3 2412 2388 1806 White 1
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 3 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 65 66 NW 2 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 68 70 NW 2 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 70 74 NW 2 5708 3378 2796 White 16
11 AM Tue 73 77 W 5 6348 5952 5370 White 19
12 Noon Tue 74 79 W 5 6766 6766 6184 White 21
1 PM Tue 77 83 W 5 7598 7598 7016 White 25
2 PM Tue 79 84 W 6 7805 7805 7223 White 26
3 PM Tue 80 85 W 6 8012 8012 7430 White 27
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 6 7598 7598 7016 White 25
5 PM Tue 79 81 SW 5 7183 7183 6601 White 23
6 PM Tue 79 80 SW 5 6975 6975 6393 White 22
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 5 6135 4519 3937 White 18
8 PM Tue 74 74 S 5 5708 3378 2796 White 16
9 PM Tue 72 72 S 5 3653 3230 2648 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 69 69 S 5 3235 3009 2427 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 66 66 S 5 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 S 5 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 64 64 S 5 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 63 63 S 2 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 0 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 0 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 0 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 67 67 NW 2 3087 2862 2280 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 69 70 NW 2 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 72 74 NW 2 5708 3378 2796 White 16
11 AM Wed 75 77 W 5 6348 5952 5370 White 19
12 Noon Wed 76 79 W 5 6766 6766 6184 White 21
1 PM Wed 79 82 W 5 7391 7391 6809 White 24
2 PM Wed 81 84 W 7 7805 7805 7223 White 26
3 PM Wed 82 84 W 7 7805 7805 7223 White 26
4 PM Wed 82 84 W 7 7805 7805 7223 White 26
5 PM Wed 81 82 W 5 7391 7391 6809 White 24
6 PM Wed 82 83 W 5 7598 7598 7016 White 25
7 PM Wed 78 78 W 5 6558 6558 5976 White 20
8 PM Wed 75 75 S 2 5921 3577 2995 White 17
9 PM Wed 73 73 S 2 4616 3304 2722 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 70 70 S 2 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 2 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 2 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 2 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 2412 2388 1806 White 1
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 10 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 10 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 63 63 SW 10 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 64 65 SW 10 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 66 68 SW 10 3161 2935 2353 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 68 70 SW 9 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 69 72 SW 9 3653 3230 2648 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 70 73 SW 9 4616 3304 2722 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 71 74 SW 9 5708 3378 2796 White 16
3 PM Thu 72 74 SW 9 5708 3378 2796 White 16
4 PM Thu 71 73 SW 9 4616 3304 2722 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 71 72 S 12 3653 3230 2648 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 71 72 S 12 3653 3230 2648 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 12 3235 3009 2427 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 66 66 S 12 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 65 65 S 12 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 62 62 S 12 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 59 59 S 10 2412 2388 1806 White 1
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 S 10 2188 2188 1606 White 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 S 10 2188 2188 1606 White 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 S 10 1738 1738 1156 White 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 10 1738 1738 1156 White 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 S 10 2188 2188 1606 White 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 S 10 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 61 62 S 10 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 63 S 7 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 63 65 S 7 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 64 66 S 7 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 66 68 S 7 3161 2935 2353 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 66 68 S 7 3161 2935 2353 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 66 67 S 7 3087 2862 2280 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 7 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 7 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 7 2188 2188 1606 White 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 5 1738 1738 1156 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 SW 5 1964 1964 1382 White 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 SW 5 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 61 62 SW 5 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 63 65 W 7 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 64 66 W 7 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 66 68 W 7 3161 2935 2353 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 68 70 W 7 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 69 71 W 7 3383 3156 2574 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 69 70 W 7 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 68 71 W 5 3383 3156 2574 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 68 69 W 5 3235 3009 2427 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 2866 2641 2059 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 2571 2388 1806 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 58 58 SE 6 2188 2188 1606 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SE 6 1964 1964 1382 White 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 SE 6 1738 1738 1156 White 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 0 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 N 0 1738 1738 1156 White 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 N 0 2412 2388 1806 White 1
9 AM Sun 60 62 N 0 2718 2494 1912 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 62 66 N 0 3013 2788 2206 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 64 69 W 6 3235 3009 2427 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 65 71 W 6 3383 3156 2574 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 73 W 6 4616 3304 2722 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 68 74 W 6 5708 3378 2796 White 16
3 PM Sun 69 74 W 6 5708 3378 2796 White 16
4 PM Sun 68 72 W 6 3653 3230 2648 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 68 70 W 5 3309 3083 2501 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 68 69 W 5 3235 3009 2427 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 2939 2715 2133 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 2792 2568 1986 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 5 2644 2421 1839 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 2188 2188 1606 White 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SE 3 1738 1738 1156 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com