Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 29 29 NE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 NE 5 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 5 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 30 30 NE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 NE 5 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 38 38 NE 3 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 39 39 NE 3 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 3020 2835 2253 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 46 46 N 2 3128 2963 2381 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 44 44 N 1 3020 2835 2253 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 46 46 NE 2 3128 2963 2381 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 46 46 E 1 3128 2963 2381 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 44 44 S 8 3020 2835 2253 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 8 3128 2963 2381 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 42 42 S 9 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 9 3074 2904 2322 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 36 36 S 13 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 42 42 S 13 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 S 13 3074 2904 2322 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 38 38 S 20 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 20 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 20 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 17 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 17 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 39 39 S 17 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 35 35 S 17 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 40 40 S 17 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 40 40 S 17 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 43 43 S 8 2966 2766 2184 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 43 43 S 8 2966 2766 2184 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 42 42 S 8 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 41 41 S 8 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 39 39 SW 5 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 37 37 SW 5 2563 2433 1851 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 36 36 SW 5 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 35 35 E 6 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 33 33 S 9 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 NE 2 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 40 40 N 3 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 42 42 N 3 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 2908 2697 2115 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 40 40 N 6 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 38 38 NE 6 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 35 35 NE 6 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 33 33 NE 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 36 36 E 7 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 38 38 E 7 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 40 41 E 7 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 41 41 NE 7 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 41 41 NE 7 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 40 40 NE 7 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 38 38 E 6 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 37 37 E 6 2563 2433 1851 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 35 35 E 6 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 34 34 E 7 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 41 41 E 5 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 40 40 NE 6 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 39 39 NE 6 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 38 38 NE 5 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 37 37 NE 5 2563 2433 1851 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 36 36 NE 5 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 35 35 E 6 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 35 35 E 6 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 E 6 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 E 6 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 36 36 E 6 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 39 39 E 6 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 41 41 E 6 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 41 41 NE 6 2839 2629 2047 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 2770 2560 1978 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 39 39 NE 6 2701 2496 1914 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 38 38 E 6 2632 2464 1882 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 2563 2433 1851 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 36 36 E 6 2497 2401 1819 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 35 35 E 7 2466 2388 1806 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 34 34 E 7 2434 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 E 7 2403 2388 1806 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com