Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 2 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 2 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 2 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 47 47 NW 1 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 49 49 NW 1 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 54 55 NW 1 2842 2772 2190 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 58 59 W 2 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 60 62 W 2 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 64 66 W 2 4657 4119 3537 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 67 69 N 6 4935 4646 4064 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 67 68 N 6 4843 4548 3966 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 63 64 N 6 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 6 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 6 3253 2887 2305 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 56 56 NE 6 2865 2795 2213 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 53 53 SE 3 2796 2726 2144 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 51 51 SE 3 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 51 51 SE 3 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 49 49 E 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 2 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 47 47 S 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 2 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 54 55 S 2 2842 2772 2190 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 58 59 W 3 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 60 62 W 3 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 63 65 W 3 4559 3800 3218 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 66 68 NW 2 4843 4548 3966 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 66 67 NW 2 4751 4449 3867 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 63 64 NW 2 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 62 62 SE 5 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 60 60 SE 5 3253 2887 2305 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 56 56 SE 5 2865 2795 2213 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 54 54 SE 5 2819 2749 2167 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 53 53 SE 5 2796 2726 2144 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 2773 2661 2079 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 51 51 SE 3 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SE 3 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 51 51 SE 5 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 54 54 SE 5 2819 2749 2167 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 57 58 W 3 2992 2841 2259 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 58 59 W 3 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 61 62 W 3 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 63 64 W 3 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 63 64 W 3 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 60 60 W 3 3253 2887 2305 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 58 58 W 3 2992 2841 2259 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 3 2888 2818 2236 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 2796 2726 2144 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 3 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 3 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 47 47 E 6 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 E 6 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 51 52 E 5 2773 2661 2079 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 55 56 N 5 2865 2795 2213 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 56 58 N 5 2992 2841 2259 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 59 61 N 5 3503 2984 2402 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 62 64 N 5 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 62 63 N 5 4149 3244 2662 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 58 59 N 5 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 2888 2818 2236 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 5 2842 2772 2190 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 51 51 NW 5 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 49 49 NW 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 47 47 NW 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 2461 2414 1832 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 2461 2414 1832 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 2461 2414 1832 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 2446 2399 1817 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 2461 2414 1832 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 2446 2399 1817 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 2461 2414 1832 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 50 51 E 3 2751 2596 2014 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 54 55 N 3 2842 2772 2190 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 56 58 N 3 2992 2841 2259 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 59 61 N 3 3503 2984 2402 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 62 64 N 3 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 62 63 N 3 4149 3244 2662 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 59 60 N 3 3253 2887 2305 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 58 58 N 2 2992 2841 2259 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 2865 2795 2213 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 52 52 N 2 2773 2661 2079 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 2 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 49 49 N 2 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 2 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 47 47 E 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 E 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 2492 2445 1863 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 2477 2430 1848 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 51 52 E 3 2773 2661 2079 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 55 56 NE 2 2865 2795 2213 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 57 59 NE 2 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 60 62 NE 2 3828 3114 2532 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 63 65 NE 2 4559 3800 3218 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 63 64 NE 2 4462 3479 2897 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 60 61 NE 2 3503 2984 2402 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 2 3122 2864 2282 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 2 2888 2818 2236 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 2 2819 2749 2167 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 2 2773 2661 2079 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 2 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 2 2728 2531 1949 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 49 49 E 5 2664 2492 1910 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 E 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 2599 2476 1894 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 2534 2461 1879 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com