Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 31 31 SE 3 1764 1764 1182 White 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 SE 3 1980 1980 1398 White 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 SE 3 1764 1764 1182 White 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 1980 1980 1398 White 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 1980 1980 1398 White 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 E 2 2195 2195 1613 White 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 SW 3 2626 2559 1977 White 3
11 AM Sat 36 36 SW 3 2841 2841 2259 White 4
12 Noon Sat 37 37 SW 3 3056 3056 2474 White 5
1 PM Sat 38 38 S 1 3270 3270 2688 White 6
2 PM Sat 38 38 S 1 3270 3270 2688 White 6
3 PM Sat 36 36 S 1 2841 2841 2259 White 4
4 PM Sat 36 36 W 2 2841 2841 2259 White 4
5 PM Sat 33 33 W 2 2195 2195 1613 White 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 W 2 1764 1764 1182 White 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 E 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 E 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 E 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 E 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 29 N 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 30 31 N 14 1764 1764 1182 White 0
12 Noon Sun 33 34 N 14 2410 2388 1806 White 2
1 PM Sun 34 35 N 15 2626 2559 1977 White 3
2 PM Sun 34 35 N 15 2626 2559 1977 White 3
3 PM Sun 32 32 N 15 1980 1980 1398 White 0
4 PM Sun 32 32 N 13 1980 1980 1398 White 0
5 PM Sun 28 28 N 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 N 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 N 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 23 23 N 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 22 22 N 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 20 20 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 21 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 21 21 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 19 19 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 18 18 N 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 19 19 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 19 19 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 18 18 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 20 20 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 23 23 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 25 26 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 27 28 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 31 32 SW 6 1980 1980 1398 White 0
1 PM Mon 33 34 SW 6 2410 2388 1806 White 2
2 PM Mon 34 35 SW 6 2626 2559 1977 White 3
3 PM Mon 32 32 SW 6 1980 1980 1398 White 0
4 PM Mon 32 32 SW 6 1980 1980 1398 White 0
5 PM Mon 29 29 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 28 28 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 27 27 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 26 26 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 SW 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 25 25 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 29 29 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 32 S 6 1980 1980 1398 White 0
1 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 2195 2195 1613 White 0
2 PM Tue 34 34 S 6 2410 2388 1806 White 2
3 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 2195 2195 1613 White 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 S 5 2195 2195 1613 White 0
5 PM Tue 31 31 S 5 1764 1764 1182 White 0
6 PM Tue 31 31 S 5 1764 1764 1182 White 0
7 PM Tue 30 30 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 NW 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 NW 1 1980 1980 1398 White 0
10 AM Wed 33 33 N 5 2195 2195 1613 White 0
11 AM Wed 34 34 N 5 2410 2388 1806 White 2
12 Noon Wed 37 37 N 5 3056 3056 2474 White 5
1 PM Wed 38 38 N 5 3270 3270 2688 White 6
2 PM Wed 38 38 N 5 3270 3270 2688 White 6
3 PM Wed 36 36 N 5 2841 2841 2259 White 4
4 PM Wed 36 36 N 5 2841 2841 2259 White 4
5 PM Wed 33 33 N 5 2195 2195 1613 White 0
6 PM Wed 31 31 N 5 1764 1764 1182 White 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 N 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 NE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 31 N 3 1764 1764 1182 White 0
11 AM Thu 33 34 N 3 2410 2388 1806 White 2
12 Noon Thu 36 37 N 3 3056 3056 2474 White 5
1 PM Thu 38 39 N 3 3484 3460 2878 White 7
2 PM Thu 38 39 N 3 3484 3460 2878 White 7
3 PM Thu 36 36 N 3 2841 2841 2259 White 4
4 PM Thu 36 36 NE 2 2841 2841 2259 White 4
5 PM Thu 33 33 NE 2 2195 2195 1613 White 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 2 1980 1980 1398 White 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 NE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com