Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 38 38 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Fri 42 42 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Fri 42 42 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Fri 42 42 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Fri 42 42 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Sat 45 45 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Sat 45 45 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Sat 45 45 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Sat 45 45 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 S 12 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 S 14 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 S 14 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 14 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 S 24 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 S 24 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 S 24 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 S 28 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Sun 45 45 S 28 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Sun 45 45 S 28 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 17 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 S 17 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 S 17 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 S 7 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 S 7 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 S 7 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Mon 42 42 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Mon 42 42 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Mon 41 41 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Mon 40 40 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SE 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 SE 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Tue 42 42 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Tue 44 44 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Tue 46 46 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Tue 47 47 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Tue 48 48 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 SE 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 S 22 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 S 13 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Noon Wed 49 49 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 PM Wed 50 50 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 15 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 16 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 S 21 1266 1266 684 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com