Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 33 33 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 39 N 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 43 N 1 2409 2388 1806 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 46 46 N 1 2678 2407 1825 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 46 46 NE 1 2678 2407 1825 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 44 44 NE 1 2453 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 42 42 NE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 39 39 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 E 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 S 8 2409 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 45 S 8 2570 2388 1806 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 46 46 S 8 2678 2407 1825 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 47 47 SW 2 2787 2451 1869 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 46 46 SW 2 2678 2407 1825 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 45 45 SW 2 2570 2388 1806 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 43 43 S 3 2409 2388 1806 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 NW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 2409 2388 1806 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 44 44 NW 3 2453 2388 1806 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 45 45 NW 3 2570 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 44 44 NW 3 2453 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 43 43 NW 3 2409 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 NE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 40 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 42 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 42 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 40 N 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SE 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 40 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 41 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 41 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 36 36 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 34 34 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 SE 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 38 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 40 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 41 41 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 42 42 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 41 41 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 40 40 S 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 38 38 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 36 36 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SE 3 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com