Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 51 W 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NW 2 1556 1556 974 White 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 NW 2 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 63 63 NW 2 2444 2406 1824 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 66 70 W 5 2785 2602 2020 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 67 72 W 5 2898 2722 2140 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 69 75 W 5 3026 2896 2314 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 71 76 W 7 3069 2939 2357 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 72 77 W 7 3112 2981 2399 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 71 75 W 7 3026 2896 2314 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 70 72 SW 6 2898 2722 2140 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 68 69 SW 6 2725 2543 1961 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 6 2605 2472 1890 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 64 64 S 6 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 60 60 S 6 2219 2219 1637 White 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 S 6 1998 1998 1416 White 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 S 5 1333 1333 751 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 1333 1333 751 White 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 SW 6 2219 2219 1637 White 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 SW 6 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 65 68 SW 6 2665 2502 1920 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 68 72 SW 7 2898 2722 2140 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SW 7 2984 2842 2260 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 71 76 SW 7 3069 2939 2357 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 73 78 W 7 3207 3024 2442 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 74 78 W 7 3207 3024 2442 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 73 76 W 7 3069 2939 2357 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 72 74 SW 5 2984 2842 2260 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 69 70 SW 5 2785 2602 2020 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 2725 2543 1961 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 5 2503 2417 1835 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 5 2219 2219 1637 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 S 5 1556 1556 974 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 1333 1333 751 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SW 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SW 8 1333 1333 751 White 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 SW 8 1998 1998 1416 White 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SW 8 2444 2406 1824 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 64 66 SW 8 2545 2443 1861 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 67 71 SW 7 2846 2662 2080 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 68 72 SW 7 2898 2722 2140 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 69 74 SW 7 2984 2842 2260 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 71 75 SW 7 3026 2896 2314 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 72 76 SW 7 3069 2939 2357 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 71 74 SW 7 2984 2842 2260 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 70 72 S 9 2898 2722 2140 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 68 69 S 9 2725 2543 1961 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 67 67 S 9 2605 2472 1890 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 64 64 S 9 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 9 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 59 59 S 9 1998 1998 1416 White 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 S 9 1556 1556 974 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 9 1333 1333 751 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 9 1266 1266 684 White 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 S 8 1333 1333 751 White 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 S 8 1777 1777 1195 White 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 S 8 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 61 62 SW 8 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 62 64 SW 8 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 63 65 SW 8 2503 2417 1835 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 64 66 SW 8 2545 2443 1861 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 65 66 SW 8 2545 2443 1861 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 64 65 SW 8 2503 2417 1835 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 64 65 SW 7 2503 2417 1835 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 7 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 7 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 7 1998 1998 1416 White 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 SW 7 1333 1333 751 White 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 SW 7 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 SW 8 1777 1777 1195 White 0
11 AM Wed 58 59 W 13 1998 1998 1416 White 0
12 Noon Wed 59 60 W 13 2219 2219 1637 White 0
1 PM Wed 60 61 W 13 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 61 62 W 13 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 62 63 W 13 2444 2406 1824 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 61 62 W 13 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 61 62 SW 10 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 10 1998 1998 1416 White 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 10 1998 1998 1416 White 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 1556 1556 974 White 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 SW 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 10 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SW 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SW 7 1266 1266 684 White 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 1333 1333 751 White 0
10 AM Thu 58 58 SW 7 1777 1777 1195 White 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 S 8 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 61 62 S 8 2417 2400 1818 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 62 63 S 8 2444 2406 1824 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 63 64 S 8 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 64 65 S 8 2503 2417 1835 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 63 64 S 8 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 63 64 SW 8 2474 2411 1829 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 2412 2395 1813 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 2219 2219 1637 White 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 1777 1777 1195 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 1266 1266 684 White 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com