Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.8605, -122.126, 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NNE 0 1 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 55 55 NNE 0 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 SW 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SW 1 1 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 SW 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NW 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 NW 1 1 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 62 63 NW 1 1 2604 2510 1928 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 67 69 NW 2 3 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 72 75 NW 2 3 3464 3077 2495 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 76 79 NW 2 3 6620 4012 3430 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 76 79 NW 3 4 6620 4012 3430 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 76 78 NW 3 4 5779 3435 2853 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 77 78 NW 3 4 5779 3435 2853 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 73 73 NNE 3 5 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 70 70 NNE 3 5 2974 2813 2231 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 3 5 2657 2541 1959 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 2 2 2542 2449 1867 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 2 2 2542 2449 1867 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 2 2 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 57 57 SSW 2 3 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SSW 2 3 2450 2388 1806 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 S 3 4 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 S 1 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 1 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 SW 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 SW 1 1 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 62 63 SW 1 1 2604 2510 1928 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 67 69 WSW 2 3 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 71 74 WSW 2 3 3186 3024 2442 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 74 77 WSW 2 3 4877 3182 2600 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 76 79 WNW 2 3 6620 4012 3430 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 76 78 WNW 2 3 5779 3435 2853 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 75 76 WNW 2 3 4084 3129 2547 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 73 73 NNW 2 2 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 69 69 NNW 2 2 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 65 65 NNW 2 2 2710 2571 1989 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 2 3 2542 2449 1867 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 59 59 E 2 3 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 58 58 E 2 3 2450 2388 1806 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 57 57 SE 3 4 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 3 4 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 E 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 E 4 6 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 E 4 6 2542 2449 1867 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 64 65 SSW 3 4 2710 2571 1989 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 68 70 SSW 3 4 2974 2813 2231 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 70 72 SSW 3 4 3080 2918 2336 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 73 W 3 4 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 72 73 W 3 4 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 71 W 3 4 3027 2866 2284 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 69 69 W 4 6 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 4 6 2763 2602 2020 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 4 6 2573 2480 1898 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 59 59 SE 4 6 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 57 57 SE 4 6 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 56 56 SE 4 6 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 ESE 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 ESE 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 4 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 E 3 4 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 60 61 WNW 2 3 2542 2449 1867 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 64 66 WNW 2 3 2763 2602 2020 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 67 69 WNW 2 3 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 69 71 W 3 4 3027 2866 2284 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 69 70 W 3 4 2974 2813 2231 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 68 69 W 3 4 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 4 6 2763 2602 2020 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 4 6 2604 2510 1928 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 4 6 2512 2419 1837 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 4 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 E 3 5 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 62 63 NW 3 4 2604 2510 1928 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 66 68 NW 3 4 2868 2708 2126 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 69 71 NW 3 4 3027 2866 2284 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 71 73 WNW 3 5 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 71 72 WNW 3 5 3080 2918 2336 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 70 71 WNW 3 5 3027 2866 2284 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 3 4 2868 2708 2126 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 3 4 2710 2571 1989 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 3 4 2573 2480 1898 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 59 59 ENE 3 4 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 57 57 ENE - 4 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 56 56 ENE - 4 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 E - 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 E - 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 E - 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E - 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 E 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 E 4 5 2512 2419 1837 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 63 65 NW 3 5 2710 2571 1989 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 67 70 NW 3 5 2974 2813 2231 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 70 73 NW 3 5 3133 2971 2389 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 72 75 WNW 4 5 3464 3077 2495 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 72 74 WNW 4 5 3186 3024 2442 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 71 72 WNW 4 5 3080 2918 2336 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 4 6 2921 2760 2178 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 4 6 2763 2602 2020 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 4 6 2573 2480 1898 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 59 59 NE 3 4 2481 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 57 57 NE 3 4 2420 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 3 4 2389 2388 1806 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com