Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 S 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 S 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 S 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 61 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 63 SE 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 62 63 SE 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 63 64 SE 9 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 62 63 SE 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 63 64 SE 9 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 62 63 SE 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 63 63 SE 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 62 62 SE 9 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 60 60 SE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 SE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SE 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 58 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 62 S 9 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 61 63 S 9 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 62 64 S 8 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 61 63 S 8 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 62 63 S 8 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 61 62 SE 6 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 62 62 SE 6 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 61 61 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 E 5 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 62 66 NW 5 2691 2507 1925 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 65 69 NW 5 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 65 70 NW 5 2935 2750 2168 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 67 72 NW 5 3057 2871 2289 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 67 71 NW 5 2996 2811 2229 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 68 71 NW 5 2996 2811 2229 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 67 69 NW 5 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 68 69 NW 5 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 67 67 NW 5 2752 2567 1985 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 5 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 E 5 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 67 68 E 5 2813 2628 2046 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 68 70 E 5 2935 2750 2168 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 72 76 W 3 3302 3115 2533 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 75 80 W 3 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 75 80 W 3 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 78 83 W 3 6331 4410 3828 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 77 81 W 3 4641 3536 2954 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 79 82 W 3 4980 4061 3479 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 77 79 N 3 4104 3298 2716 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 79 80 N 3 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 77 77 N 3 3363 3176 2594 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 72 72 N 3 3057 2871 2289 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 3 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 65 65 E 3 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 E 3 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 3 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 62 62 E 3 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 64 64 E 3 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 61 61 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 69 70 NE 5 2935 2750 2168 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 69 71 NE 5 2996 2811 2229 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 72 75 NE 5 3240 3054 2472 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 76 80 NE 5 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 76 81 NE 5 4641 3536 2954 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 79 83 NE 5 6331 4410 3828 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 78 82 NE 5 4980 4061 3479 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 79 82 NE 5 4980 4061 3479 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 78 79 N 3 4104 3298 2716 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 80 80 N 3 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 78 78 N 3 3570 3237 2655 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 3 3118 2932 2350 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 71 71 N 3 2996 2811 2229 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 67 67 N 3 2752 2567 1985 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 67 67 E 3 2752 2567 1985 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 E 3 2752 2567 1985 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 66 66 E 3 2691 2507 1925 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 64 64 E 3 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 2630 2446 1864 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 64 64 E 5 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 66 66 E 5 2691 2507 1925 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 68 69 E 5 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 69 71 E 5 2996 2811 2229 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 71 74 E 5 3179 2993 2411 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 74 77 E 5 3363 3176 2594 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 74 78 E 5 3570 3237 2655 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 76 80 E 5 4429 3359 2777 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 75 78 E 5 3570 3237 2655 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 76 78 E 5 3570 3237 2655 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 5 3302 3115 2533 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 3302 3115 2533 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 3179 2993 2411 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 2874 2689 2107 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 5 2752 2567 1985 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 3 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 E 3 2569 2388 1806 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 2448 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 63 63 E 3 2509 2388 1806 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 61 61 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com