Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 41 41 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 S 20 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 S 25 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 25 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 47 47 S 25 3189 2473 1891 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 47 47 S 23 3189 2473 1891 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 47 47 S 23 3189 2473 1891 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 43 43 S 23 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 S 28 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 S 28 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 S 28 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 S 22 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 S 22 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 S 22 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 SW 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 SW 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 SW 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 38 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 39 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 40 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 41 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 SE 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 S 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 E 14 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 E 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 41 E 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 E 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 44 E 12 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 44 E 12 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 E 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 SE 8 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 45 45 SE 8 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 46 46 SE 8 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 46 46 SE 8 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 44 44 SE 8 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 SE 7 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 44 44 SE 7 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 SE 7 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 SE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SE 10 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 13 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 46 46 S 13 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 47 47 S 13 3189 2473 1891 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 48 48 S 13 3416 2723 2141 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 48 48 S 13 3416 2723 2141 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 46 46 S 13 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 46 46 SW 12 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 45 45 SW 12 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 45 45 SW 12 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 44 44 SW 12 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 SW 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SW 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 44 S 9 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 45 45 S 9 2734 2388 1806 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 46 46 S 9 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 46 46 S 9 2962 2388 1806 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 43 43 S 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 SE 9 2484 2388 1806 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 SE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SE 7 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com