Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Altitude (f): 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 58 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 E 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 1 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 1 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 69 71 NE 1 2471 2438 1856 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 75 79 NW 3 3049 2719 2137 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 77 81 NW 3 3273 2933 2351 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 80 85 NW 3 3985 3439 2857 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 82 87 N 6 4556 3793 3211 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 84 88 N 6 4839 3970 3388 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 81 84 N 6 3808 3261 2679 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 82 84 N 3 3808 3261 2679 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 82 83 N 3 3629 3152 2570 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 77 77 N 3 2829 2600 2018 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 73 73 E 7 2551 2460 1878 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 69 69 E 7 2449 2417 1835 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 67 67 E 7 2428 2408 1826 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 64 64 E 8 2408 2394 1812 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 E 8 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 62 62 E 8 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 10 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NE 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NE 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 NE 9 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 65 66 NE 9 2417 2403 1821 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 70 73 NE 9 2551 2460 1878 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 76 80 N 15 3158 2824 2242 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 78 83 N 15 3629 3152 2570 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 81 87 N 15 4556 3793 3211 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 83 89 N 14 5437 4244 3662 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 85 90 N 14 7106 4526 3944 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 82 86 N 14 4271 3616 3034 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 83 85 N 12 3985 3439 2857 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 83 84 N 12 3808 3261 2679 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 78 78 N 12 2939 2651 2069 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 74 74 E 6 2602 2471 1889 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 70 70 E 6 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 68 68 E 6 2438 2413 1831 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 64 64 E 9 2408 2394 1812 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 E 9 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 62 62 E 9 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 61 61 E 5 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 2 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 69 72 E 2 2500 2449 1867 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 75 79 W 2 3049 2719 2137 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 77 82 W 2 3451 3042 2460 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 80 86 W 2 4271 3616 3034 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 82 87 N 6 4556 3793 3211 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 84 89 N 6 5437 4244 3662 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 82 85 N 6 3985 3439 2857 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 82 84 W 5 3808 3261 2679 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 5 3629 3152 2570 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 5 2939 2651 2069 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 74 74 E 5 2602 2471 1889 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 70 70 E 5 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 68 68 E 5 2438 2413 1831 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 65 65 E 3 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 E 3 2404 2389 1807 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 2404 2389 1807 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 61 61 SE 3 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SW 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SW 2 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 65 SW 2 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 69 71 SW 2 2471 2438 1856 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 73 76 W 7 2723 2549 1967 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 75 78 W 7 2939 2651 2069 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 78 82 W 7 3451 3042 2460 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 79 83 W 7 3629 3152 2570 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 81 84 W 7 3808 3261 2679 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 79 81 W 7 3273 2933 2351 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 79 80 S 7 3158 2824 2242 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 79 79 S 7 3049 2719 2137 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 75 75 S 7 2653 2498 1916 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 71 71 S 7 2471 2438 1856 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 67 67 S 7 2428 2408 1826 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 65 65 S 7 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 61 61 S 7 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 S 7 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 65 66 SW 5 2417 2403 1821 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 66 68 SW 5 2438 2413 1831 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 67 69 SW 5 2449 2417 1835 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 68 70 SW 5 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 69 71 SW 5 2471 2438 1856 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 69 70 SW 5 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 5 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 5 2438 2413 1831 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 5 2417 2403 1821 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 5 2408 2394 1812 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 5 2399 2388 1806 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 5 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 2390 2388 1806 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 S 6 2413 2399 1817 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 67 69 SW 6 2449 2417 1835 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 68 70 SW 6 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 70 73 SW 6 2551 2460 1878 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 71 73 SW 6 2551 2460 1878 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 72 74 SW 6 2602 2471 1889 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 71 72 SW 6 2500 2449 1867 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 71 72 SW 3 2500 2449 1867 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 70 70 SW 3 2460 2427 1845 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 67 67 SW 3 2428 2408 1826 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 3 2408 2394 1812 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 61 61 SW 3 2394 2388 1806 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 0 582 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com