Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.8605, -122.126, 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 15 15 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 14 14 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 14 14 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 17 17 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 20 20 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 23 23 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 24 24 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 24 24 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 24 24 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 26 26 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 28 28 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 30 30 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 30 30 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 30 30 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 30 30 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 29 29 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 27 27 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 26 26 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 24 24 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 22 22 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 19 19 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 16 16 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 14 14 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 10 10 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 13 13 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 16 16 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 19 19 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 19 19 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 20 20 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 21 21 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 24 24 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 27 27 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 31 31 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 33 33 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 34 34 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 36 36 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 37 37 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 37 37 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 38 38 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 36 36 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 34 34 S 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 32 32 S 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 32 32 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 32 32 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 31 31 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 30 30 SE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 30 30 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 29 29 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 30 30 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 30 30 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 30 30 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 31 31 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 32 32 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 33 33 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 34 34 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 35 35 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 37 37 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 39 39 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 40 40 S 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 41 41 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 41 42 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 42 43 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 41 41 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 40 40 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 39 39 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 38 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 31 31 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 28 28 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com