Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 45 45 SE 12 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 46 46 SE 12 3064 2705 2309 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 12 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 46 46 SE 13 3064 2705 2309 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 46 46 SE 13 3064 2705 2309 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 47 47 SE 13 3382 2818 2422 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 48 48 S 15 3856 2939 2543 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 49 49 S 15 4319 3061 2665 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 50 50 S 15 4805 3366 2970 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 51 51 S 14 5371 3833 3437 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 50 50 S 14 4805 3366 2970 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 50 50 S 14 4805 3366 2970 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 48 48 S 14 3856 2939 2543 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 47 47 S 14 3382 2818 2422 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 45 45 S 14 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 45 45 SE 14 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 46 46 SE 14 3064 2705 2309 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 44 44 SE 14 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 45 45 SE 13 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 44 44 SE 13 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SE 13 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 43 43 SE 13 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 13 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 44 44 SE 13 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 10 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 42 42 SE 10 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 44 44 SE 12 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 45 45 SE 14 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 46 46 SE 14 3064 2705 2309 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 47 47 SE 14 3382 2818 2422 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 48 48 SE 14 3856 2939 2543 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 48 48 SE 14 3856 2939 2543 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 47 47 SE 14 3382 2818 2422 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 45 45 SE 12 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 45 45 SE 12 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 44 44 SE 12 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 42 42 SE 9 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SE 9 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 42 42 SE 10 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 42 42 SE 10 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 43 43 SE 10 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 41 41 SW 7 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 42 42 SW 7 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 42 42 SW 7 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 43 43 SW 7 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 43 43 SW 7 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 44 44 SW 7 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 44 44 SW 7 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 44 44 SW 7 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 44 44 SW 7 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 43 43 SE 9 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 43 43 SE 9 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 42 42 SE 9 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 42 42 SE 9 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 42 42 SE 9 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 41 41 SE 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 42 42 SE 15 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 41 41 SE 15 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 SE 15 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 41 41 SE 15 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 41 41 SE 15 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 41 41 SE 15 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 41 41 SE 16 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 41 41 SE 16 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 41 41 SE 16 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 42 42 SE 16 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 42 42 SE 16 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 42 42 SE 16 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 43 43 SE 22 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 44 44 SE 22 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 45 45 SE 22 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 45 45 SE 22 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 45 45 SE 22 2942 2664 2268 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 44 44 SE 22 2819 2622 2226 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 40 40 S 9 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 8 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 39 39 SE 8 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 41 41 SW 8 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 42 42 SW 8 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2185 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 42 42 SW 8 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 41 41 SW 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 41 41 SW 9 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 38 38 SW 9 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 39 39 SE 7 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 38 38 SE 7 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SE 7 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 2456 2398 2002 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 14 2456 2398 2002 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 38 38 SE 14 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 37 37 SE 14 2456 2398 2002 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 38 38 SE 14 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 38 38 SE 14 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 39 39 SE 14 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 40 40 SE 17 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 41 41 SE 17 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 42 42 SE 17 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 42 42 SE 17 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 42 42 SE 17 2664 2539 2143 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 41 41 SE 17 2622 2498 2102 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 40 40 SE 8 2581 2456 2060 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 38 38 SE 8 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 39 39 SE 8 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 39 39 SE 8 2539 2415 2019 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 38 38 SE 8 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 38 38 SE 15 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 38 38 SE 15 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SE 15 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 37 37 SE 15 2456 2398 2002 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 38 38 SE 15 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 38 38 SE 15 2498 2398 2002 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com