Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 48 48 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 49 49 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 51 51 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 52 52 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 49 49 W 16 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 51 51 W 16 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 51 51 W 14 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 W 14 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 W 14 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 48 48 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 49 49 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 51 51 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 51 51 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 51 51 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 52 52 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 54 54 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 53 53 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 54 54 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 52 52 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 53 53 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 55 55 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 55 55 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 55 55 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 S 13 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 50 50 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 52 52 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 51 51 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 0 396 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com