Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 36 36 NW 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 35 35 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 33 33 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 33 33 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 39 40 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 40 41 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 41 42 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 42 43 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 42 42 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 43 43 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 43 43 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 41 41 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 39 39 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 38 38 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 38 38 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 37 37 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 37 37 ESE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 38 ESE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 39 39 ESE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 39 39 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 41 41 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 41 41 ESE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 42 42 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 44 44 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 42 42 ESE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 38 38 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 40 ESE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 46 46 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 49 SE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 51 SE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 50 SE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 49 49 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 46 46 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 44 44 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 43 43 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 42 42 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 41 41 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com