Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NNE 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 0 0 2421 2388 1992 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 61 61 W 1 2 2543 2450 2054 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 63 64 W 3 3 2658 2542 2146 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 67 68 WNW 4 4 2869 2709 2313 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 68 70 WNW 4 4 2975 2814 2418 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 68 70 WNW 4 5 2975 2814 2418 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 70 71 WNW 4 5 3028 2867 2471 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 69 70 NW 4 4 2975 2814 2418 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 3 4 2764 2603 2207 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 2 5 2606 2511 2115 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 59 59 NW 1 2 2482 2389 1993 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 1 3 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 1 3 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 1 2 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 1 3 2421 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 ESE 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 1 3 2421 2388 1992 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 E 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 0 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 0 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 WSW 0 0 2512 2419 2023 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 63 64 WSW 2 2 2658 2542 2146 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 66 67 W 3 3 2817 2656 2260 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 71 74 W 3 4 3187 3025 2629 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 73 76 W 4 5 4102 3131 2735 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 70 72 WNW 5 5 3081 2919 2523 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 74 76 WNW 4 5 4102 3131 2735 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 73 74 WNW 4 5 3187 3025 2629 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 4 4 2764 2603 2207 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 3 5 2711 2572 2176 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 2 4 2421 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 0 0 2482 2389 1993 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 54 54 SSW 0 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SE 0 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 SE 1 3 2482 2389 1993 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 2 4 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 52 52 SE 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 ESE 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 0 1 2390 2388 1992 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 0 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 ESE 1 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 5 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 58 58 S 1 2 2451 2388 1992 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 61 62 SW 3 4 2573 2480 2084 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 67 WSW 3 4 2817 2656 2260 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 64 64 WSW 2 3 2658 2542 2146 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 65 65 W 4 5 2711 2572 2176 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 70 72 W 4 5 3081 2919 2523 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 67 69 W 3 4 2922 2761 2365 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 3 4 2922 2761 2365 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 65 65 WNW 3 5 2711 2572 2176 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 3 6 2512 2419 2023 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 2 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 1 2 2390 2388 1992 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 S 1 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SE 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 ESE 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com