Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 1 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 52 52 E 1 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 57 58 E 1 2742 2573 2177 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 59 60 W 2 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 61 63 W 2 2856 2786 2390 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 63 65 W 2 2911 2831 2435 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 64 66 NW 6 3061 2853 2457 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 64 65 NW 6 2911 2831 2435 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 64 65 NW 6 2911 2831 2435 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 9 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 54 54 E 8 2515 2456 2060 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 8 2488 2441 2045 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 8 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 7 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 7 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 7 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 7 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 7 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 7 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 52 52 SE 2 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 57 58 SE 2 2742 2573 2177 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 59 60 S 3 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 62 64 S 3 2878 2808 2412 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 63 65 S 3 2911 2831 2435 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 65 67 SW 2 3189 2876 2480 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 65 66 SW 2 3061 2853 2457 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 65 66 SW 2 3061 2853 2457 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2856 2786 2390 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 5 2708 2509 2113 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 56 56 NE 5 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 5 2515 2456 2060 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 5 2488 2441 2045 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 50 50 SE 5 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 52 52 SE 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 56 56 SE 5 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 58 59 SW 2 2765 2638 2242 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 60 61 SW 2 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 61 62 SW 2 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 62 63 SW 2 2856 2786 2390 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 62 63 SW 2 2856 2786 2390 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 62 62 SW 2 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 60 60 NW 5 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2177 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 2579 2472 2076 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 2515 2456 2060 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 51 51 NW 5 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 E 6 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 50 50 E 3 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 54 55 E 3 2579 2472 2076 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 56 57 N 5 2708 2509 2113 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 58 60 N 5 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 59 61 N 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 60 62 N 5 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 60 61 N 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 60 61 N 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 2742 2573 2177 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 6 2488 2441 2045 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 52 52 NW 6 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 6 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 48 48 E 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 47 47 E 3 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 3 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NE 2 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 53 54 NE 2 2515 2456 2060 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 55 56 NW 5 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NW 5 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 59 61 NW 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 60 62 NW 5 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 60 61 NW 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 60 61 NW 5 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 59 59 NW 2 2765 2638 2242 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 2 2708 2509 2113 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 2 2488 2441 2045 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 52 52 NW 2 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 50 50 NW 2 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 48 48 N 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 3 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 3 2427 2388 1992 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 2412 2388 1992 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 2 2396 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 50 50 E 2 2442 2395 1999 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 2 2579 2472 2076 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 56 57 E 2 2708 2509 2113 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 61 E 2 2810 2740 2344 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 60 62 E 2 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 61 63 E 2 2856 2786 2390 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 61 62 E 2 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 61 62 E 2 2833 2763 2367 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 2788 2702 2306 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 59 59 NW 2 2765 2638 2242 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 2 2643 2487 2091 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 2 2579 2472 2076 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 2 2515 2456 2060 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 53 53 NW 2 2488 2441 2045 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 2473 2426 2030 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 2458 2410 2014 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com