Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 62 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 63 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 66 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 66 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 68 SE 8 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 68 69 SE 8 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 68 69 SE 8 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 68 69 S 7 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 68 68 S 7 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 67 67 S 7 2426 2388 1992 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 63 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 64 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 67 S 5 2426 2388 1992 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 68 S 5 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 67 70 SW 5 2606 2421 2025 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 68 70 SW 5 2606 2421 2025 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 68 70 SW 5 2606 2421 2025 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 68 69 W 3 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 3 2426 2388 1992 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 65 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 67 71 NW 9 2667 2482 2086 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 67 72 NW 9 2727 2542 2146 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 69 74 NW 9 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 71 75 NW 9 2908 2723 2327 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 70 73 NW 9 2787 2602 2206 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 71 73 NW 6 2787 2602 2206 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 71 72 NW 6 2727 2542 2146 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 65 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 68 W 8 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 69 74 W 8 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 69 74 W 8 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 71 76 W 8 2968 2783 2387 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 73 77 W 8 3028 2843 2447 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 72 75 W 8 2908 2723 2327 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 73 75 NW 5 2908 2723 2327 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 73 74 NW 5 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 72 72 NW 5 2727 2542 2146 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 5 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 68 NE 6 2486 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 67 70 NW 6 2606 2421 2025 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 72 76 NW 6 2968 2783 2387 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 72 77 NW 6 3028 2843 2447 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 74 78 NW 6 3089 2903 2507 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 76 80 NW 6 3210 3024 2628 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 75 78 NW 6 3089 2903 2507 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 76 78 NW 6 3089 2903 2507 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 76 76 NW 6 2968 2783 2387 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 74 74 NW 6 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 70 70 NW 6 2606 2421 2025 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 E 5 2426 2388 1992 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 69 NE 6 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 70 73 NE 6 2787 2602 2206 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 70 74 NE 6 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 72 76 NE 6 2968 2783 2387 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 74 77 NE 6 3028 2843 2447 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 74 76 NE 6 2968 2783 2387 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 74 75 W 5 2908 2723 2327 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 2847 2663 2267 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 5 2727 2542 2146 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 2546 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com