Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 62 62 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 64 68 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 66 71 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 67 72 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 68 73 NW 7 180 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 69 73 NW 7 180 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 69 72 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 68 70 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 68 69 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 64 67 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 65 69 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 67 72 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 69 74 SW 3 396 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 69 74 SW 3 396 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 70 75 SW 3 610 610 214 White 0
4 PM Sun 71 74 SW 3 396 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 70 72 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 70 71 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 64 65 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 65 68 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 66 70 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 68 72 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 68 72 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 69 73 SW 5 180 396 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 69 72 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 69 71 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 69 70 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 62 63 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 63 64 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 64 65 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 65 67 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 66 67 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 66 67 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 66 67 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 61 62 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 62 63 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 63 65 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 63 65 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 64 65 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 64 65 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 60 60 W 12 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 62 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 62 63 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 64 66 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 64 66 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 65 66 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 65 66 SW 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 65 66 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 65 66 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 S 5 0 396 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com