Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 NW 1 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 56 58 NW 1 2443 2418 2022 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 59 62 NW 1 2475 2450 2054 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 64 69 W 5 2746 2546 2150 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 64 70 W 5 2801 2591 2195 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 67 73 W 5 3046 2795 2399 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 69 75 NW 7 3429 2904 2508 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 70 75 NW 7 3429 2904 2508 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 70 73 NW 7 3046 2795 2399 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 68 70 N 8 2801 2591 2195 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 67 68 N 8 2666 2522 2126 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 66 66 N 8 2550 2489 2093 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 63 63 N 10 2491 2458 2062 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 2451 2426 2030 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 58 58 N 10 2443 2418 2022 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 8 2427 2403 2007 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 8 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 52 52 SW 2 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 S 9 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 55 57 S 9 2435 2411 2015 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 56 59 S 9 2451 2426 2030 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 60 63 S 10 2491 2458 2062 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 60 64 S 10 2507 2466 2070 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 62 66 S 10 2550 2489 2093 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 63 67 S 12 2595 2505 2109 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 64 67 S 12 2595 2505 2109 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 64 66 S 12 2550 2489 2093 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 62 62 S 14 2475 2450 2054 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 62 62 S 14 2475 2450 2054 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 60 60 S 14 2458 2434 2038 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 59 59 S 7 2451 2426 2030 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 56 56 S 7 2427 2403 2007 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 55 55 S 7 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 54 54 S 3 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 S 3 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 52 52 S 3 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 52 S 3 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 53 53 S 7 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 53 53 S 7 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 54 54 S 7 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 54 54 SW 5 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 54 54 SW 5 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 54 54 SW 5 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 54 54 SW 5 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 52 52 SE 3 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 50 50 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 51 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 52 S 5 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 52 52 S 5 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 53 53 S 6 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 6 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 52 52 S 6 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 51 51 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 51 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 53 S 6 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 53 53 S 6 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 54 54 S 6 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 2419 2395 1999 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 54 54 SW 7 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 54 54 SW 7 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 53 53 SW 7 2403 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 7 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 56 SW 5 2427 2403 2007 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 55 56 SW 5 2427 2403 2007 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 57 58 SW 5 2443 2418 2022 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 58 59 SW 5 2451 2426 2030 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 59 60 SW 5 2458 2434 2038 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 59 59 SW 5 2451 2426 2030 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 57 58 W 6 2443 2418 2022 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 6 2435 2411 2015 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 6 2427 2403 2007 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 2411 2388 1992 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com