Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 E 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 E 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 E 1 2394 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 69 73 W 3 2417 2402 2006 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 72 77 W 3 2458 2425 2029 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 74 79 W 3 2486 2446 2050 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 76 81 NW 7 2587 2467 2071 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 76 80 NW 7 2536 2457 2061 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 74 77 NW 7 2458 2425 2029 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 74 76 NW 5 2447 2416 2020 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 74 75 NW 5 2436 2412 2016 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 2412 2398 2002 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 69 69 N 3 2398 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 67 67 N 3 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 68 N 10 2394 2388 1992 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 70 73 N 10 2417 2402 2006 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 78 N 12 2468 2435 2039 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 78 83 N 12 2694 2532 2136 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 80 85 N 12 2900 2633 2237 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 83 88 NW 13 3224 2890 2494 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 82 86 NW 13 3008 2687 2291 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 80 83 NW 13 2694 2532 2136 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 80 82 NW 13 2637 2482 2086 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 80 81 NW 13 2587 2467 2071 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 13 2458 2425 2029 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 74 74 N 13 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 70 70 N 13 2403 2389 1993 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 68 68 N 13 2394 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 66 66 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 E 2 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 71 E 2 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 72 76 W 5 2447 2416 2020 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 75 80 W 5 2536 2457 2061 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 77 83 W 5 2694 2532 2136 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 79 85 NW 6 2900 2633 2237 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 79 84 NW 6 2792 2582 2186 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 77 81 NW 6 2587 2467 2071 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 77 79 NW 6 2486 2446 2050 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 77 78 NW 6 2468 2435 2039 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 74 74 NW 6 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 72 72 N 8 2412 2398 2002 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 8 2398 2388 1992 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 67 67 N 8 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 2 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 N 2 2403 2389 1993 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 71 74 W 3 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 73 76 W 3 2447 2416 2020 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 75 79 W 3 2486 2446 2050 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 76 80 W 3 2536 2457 2061 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 76 79 W 3 2486 2446 2050 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 74 76 W 3 2447 2416 2020 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 74 75 SE 9 2436 2412 2016 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 76 76 SE 9 2447 2416 2020 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 74 74 SE 9 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 71 71 SE 9 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 67 67 SE 9 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 64 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 67 S 7 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 69 S 7 2398 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 69 71 S 7 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 69 71 S 7 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 70 72 S 7 2412 2398 2002 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 70 71 S 7 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 70 71 S 7 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 69 69 S 7 2398 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 67 67 S 7 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 65 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 64 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 67 S 5 2389 2388 1992 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 70 S 5 2403 2389 1993 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 70 73 S 5 2417 2402 2006 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 74 S 5 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 72 74 S 5 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 72 74 S 5 2425 2407 2011 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 71 72 SW 5 2412 2398 2002 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 2407 2393 1997 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 2398 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com