Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 41 41 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 S 3 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 45 45 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 45 45 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 45 45 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 45 45 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 48 48 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 48 48 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 48 48 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 48 48 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 47 47 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 47 47 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 47 47 S 14 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 E 14 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 E 10 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 48 48 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 49 49 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 49 49 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 51 51 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 S 10 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 51 51 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 52 52 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 52 52 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 53 53 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 54 54 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 54 54 S 15 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 54 54 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 S 17 0 396 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com