Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 N 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 N 6 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 2402 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 54 54 NW 10 2418 2394 1998 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 55 55 NW 10 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 57 57 NW 12 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 58 58 NW 12 2482 2427 2031 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 58 58 NW 12 2482 2427 2031 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 57 57 NW 10 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 2439 2409 2013 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 55 55 NW 10 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 7 2402 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NW 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NW 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 54 NW 10 2418 2394 1998 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 52 55 NW 7 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 53 57 NW 7 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 54 58 NW 7 2482 2427 2031 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 55 59 SW 3 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 56 59 SW 3 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 55 57 SW 3 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 54 55 SW 8 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 53 53 SW 8 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 8 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 50 50 SW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 SW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NW 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 NW 17 2402 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 51 53 NW 17 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 52 54 NW 17 2418 2394 1998 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 53 55 NW 17 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 53 55 NW 17 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 53 54 NW 17 2418 2394 1998 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 51 52 SW 12 2402 2388 1992 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 50 50 SW 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 SW 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 SW 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 SW 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 SW 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 50 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 53 NW 9 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 52 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2013 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 53 57 NW 9 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 55 59 NW 9 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 56 59 NW 9 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 56 58 NW 9 2482 2427 2031 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 54 55 W 5 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 5 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 5 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NE 5 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 53 55 N 6 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 54 56 N 6 2439 2409 2013 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 55 57 N 6 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 57 59 N 6 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 58 60 N 6 2540 2451 2055 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 58 59 N 6 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 56 57 NW 9 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2006 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 51 51 NW 9 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 49 49 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 N 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 N 8 2410 2388 1992 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 55 57 N 7 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 56 58 N 7 2482 2427 2031 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 57 60 N 7 2540 2451 2055 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 59 61 N 7 2579 2480 2084 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 60 62 N 7 2655 2509 2113 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 60 61 N 7 2579 2480 2084 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 58 59 NW 7 2511 2438 2042 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 2453 2417 2021 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2439 2409 2013 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 2402 2388 1992 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 51 51 NW 7 2395 2388 1992 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 50 50 NW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com