Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 34 34 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 NE 5 834 834 438 White 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 W 3 1257 1257 861 White 0
11 AM Sat 40 40 W 3 1467 1467 1071 White 0
12 Noon Sat 40 40 W 3 1467 1467 1071 White 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 S 7 1679 1679 1283 White 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 S 7 1889 1889 1493 White 0
3 PM Sat 40 40 S 7 1467 1467 1071 White 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 7 1257 1257 861 White 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 S 7 1046 1046 650 White 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 S 7 834 834 438 White 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 W 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 W 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 W 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 NE 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 NE 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 NE 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 NE 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 NE 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NE 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 36 N 15 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 38 N 15 1046 1046 650 White 0
12 Noon Sun 38 39 N 15 1257 1257 861 White 0
1 PM Sun 39 40 N 17 1467 1467 1071 White 0
2 PM Sun 39 40 N 17 1467 1467 1071 White 0
3 PM Sun 38 38 N 17 1046 1046 650 White 0
4 PM Sun 36 36 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 N 18 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 26 26 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NE 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 33 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 34 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 35 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 35 36 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 37 38 S 7 1046 1046 650 White 0
3 PM Mon 36 36 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 35 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 34 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 E 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 E 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 35 35 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 37 SE 9 834 834 438 White 0
12 Noon Tue 38 38 SE 9 1046 1046 650 White 0
1 PM Tue 39 39 SE 9 1257 1257 861 White 0
2 PM Tue 40 40 SE 9 1467 1467 1071 White 0
3 PM Tue 39 39 SE 9 1257 1257 861 White 0
4 PM Tue 38 38 S 8 1046 1046 650 White 0
5 PM Tue 38 38 S 8 1046 1046 650 White 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 S 8 834 834 438 White 0
7 PM Tue 36 36 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 W 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 38 NW 7 1046 1046 650 White 0
11 AM Wed 39 39 NW 7 1257 1257 861 White 0
12 Noon Wed 39 39 NW 7 1257 1257 861 White 0
1 PM Wed 40 40 NW 7 1467 1467 1071 White 0
2 PM Wed 41 41 NW 7 1679 1679 1283 White 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 NW 7 1257 1257 861 White 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 N 13 1046 1046 650 White 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 N 13 834 834 438 White 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 N 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 N 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 N 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 N 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 NE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 N 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 39 N 6 1257 1257 861 White 0
12 Noon Thu 38 39 N 6 1257 1257 861 White 0
1 PM Thu 39 40 N 6 1467 1467 1071 White 0
2 PM Thu 41 42 N 6 1889 1889 1493 White 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 N 6 1257 1257 861 White 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 NW 5 1046 1046 650 White 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 NW 5 834 834 438 White 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com