Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 40 S 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 42 S 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 46 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 48 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 48 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 E 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 46 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 47 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 48 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 48 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 43 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 45 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 43 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 44 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 E 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 E 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 43 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 45 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 45 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com