Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SE 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 1 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 1 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 ESE 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 ESE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 S 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 SW 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 W 4 6 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 63 66 W 6 9 3513 2935 2539 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 63 66 WNW 8 11 3513 2935 2539 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 64 67 NW 6 9 3892 3110 2714 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 65 67 NW 5 8 3892 3110 2714 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 65 66 NW 4 6 3513 2935 2539 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 64 64 N 3 4 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 4 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 9 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 NE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 SSE 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SSE 2 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 ESE 8 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 ESE 8 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 ESE 8 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 SE 10 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SE 10 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SE 10 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 17 24 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SE 17 24 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SE 17 24 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SE 23 32 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 SE 23 32 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 SE 23 32 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 59 SE 24 33 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 62 SE 24 33 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 62 62 SE 24 33 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 62 62 SE 20 28 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 63 63 SE 20 28 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 63 63 SE 20 28 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 63 63 SSE 17 24 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 62 62 SSE 17 24 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 61 61 SSE 17 24 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 11 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 11 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 11 16 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SE 13 19 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 SE 13 19 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SE 13 19 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 SE 14 20 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SE 14 20 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SE 14 20 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SE 14 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 14 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SE 14 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 12 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 SSE 12 17 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 60 SSE 12 17 2424 2388 1992 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 62 S 9 19 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 64 64 S 9 19 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 64 64 S 9 19 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 65 65 W 18 19 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 65 65 W 18 19 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 65 65 W 18 19 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 18 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 18 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 5 18 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 59 59 SE 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 SE 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 SE 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 SE 5 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 SE 5 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 SE 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 SE 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 57 SE 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 59 S 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 61 S 4 8 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 61 61 S 4 8 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 4 8 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 4 8 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 4 8 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 4 8 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 4 8 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 SW 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 S 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 S 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 S 4 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 S 4 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 4 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 S 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 S 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 S 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 S 5 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 S 5 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 60 S 4 10 2424 2388 1992 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 62 S 4 10 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 62 62 S 4 10 2776 2388 1992 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 63 64 SSW 4 9 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 64 65 SSW 4 9 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 63 64 SSW 4 9 3129 2585 2189 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 63 63 SW 3 6 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 63 63 SW 3 6 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 61 61 SW 3 6 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 57 57 S 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 S 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 S 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 SE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 ESE 3 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 3 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 3 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 4 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 4 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 4 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 3 5 2600 2388 1992 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 64 65 ENE 3 5 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 64 65 ENE 3 5 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 65 66 NW 4 8 3513 2935 2539 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 66 67 NW 4 8 3892 3110 2714 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 65 65 NW 4 8 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 9 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 9 3304 2760 2364 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 63 63 NW 5 9 2953 2409 2013 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com