Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 146 396 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 146 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 589 589 193 White 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 S 5 1031 1031 635 White 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 S 5 1911 1911 1515 White 0
10 AM Tue 67 70 S 5 2349 2349 1953 White 0
11 AM Tue 69 75 SW 5 3148 2923 2527 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 71 78 SW 5 3367 3141 2745 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 72 79 SW 5 3440 3213 2817 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 74 81 W 5 4727 3359 2963 White 16
3 PM Tue 75 81 W 5 4727 3359 2963 White 16
4 PM Tue 74 79 W 5 3440 3213 2817 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 74 77 S 5 3294 3068 2672 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 74 75 S 5 3148 2923 2527 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 73 73 S 5 3000 2778 2382 White 8
8 PM Tue 72 72 SE 7 2785 2706 2310 White 7
9 PM Tue 70 70 SE 7 2349 2349 1953 White 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 SE 7 1911 1911 1515 White 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 SE 8 1692 1692 1296 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SE 8 1252 1252 856 White 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 SE 8 1031 1031 635 White 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SE 6 810 810 414 White 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 SE 6 589 589 193 White 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 SE 6 367 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 367 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 367 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 S 2 1031 1031 635 White 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 3 1472 1472 1076 White 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 3 2130 2130 1734 White 0
10 AM Wed 69 71 SW 3 2568 2568 2172 White 6
11 AM Wed 72 74 W 5 3075 2851 2455 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 74 77 W 5 3294 3068 2672 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 75 78 W 5 3367 3141 2745 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 78 81 W 5 4727 3359 2963 White 16
3 PM Wed 79 82 W 5 4942 3432 3036 White 17
4 PM Wed 78 80 W 5 4512 3286 2890 White 15
5 PM Wed 78 80 SW 5 4512 3286 2890 White 15
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 5 3440 3213 2817 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 76 76 SW 5 3221 2996 2600 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 74 74 SE 3 3075 2851 2455 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 72 72 SE 3 2785 2706 2310 White 7
10 PM Wed 70 70 SE 3 2349 2349 1953 White 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 E 7 1911 1911 1515 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 E 7 1252 1252 856 White 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 E 7 1031 1031 635 White 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SE 8 810 810 414 White 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SE 8 367 396 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SE 8 367 396 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 8 146 396 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 8 367 396 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 S 10 589 589 193 White 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 S 10 1252 1252 856 White 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 S 10 1692 1692 1296 White 0
11 AM Thu 66 68 S 9 1911 1911 1515 White 0
12 Noon Thu 67 70 S 9 2349 2349 1953 White 0
1 PM Thu 68 71 S 9 2568 2568 2172 White 6
2 PM Thu 70 73 SW 8 3000 2778 2382 White 8
3 PM Thu 70 72 SW 8 2785 2706 2310 White 7
4 PM Thu 70 72 SW 8 2785 2706 2310 White 7
5 PM Thu 70 71 S 9 2568 2568 2172 White 6
6 PM Thu 69 69 S 9 2130 2130 1734 White 0
7 PM Thu 68 68 S 9 1911 1911 1515 White 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 SE 9 1692 1692 1296 White 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 SE 9 1252 1252 856 White 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 SE 9 1031 1031 635 White 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 SE 8 589 589 193 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SE 8 367 396 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 146 396 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 S 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 S 6 367 396 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 S 6 589 589 193 White 0
11 AM Fri 62 64 SE 5 1031 1031 635 White 0
12 Noon Fri 64 66 SE 5 1472 1472 1076 White 0
1 PM Fri 64 66 SE 5 1472 1472 1076 White 0
2 PM Fri 66 68 SE 5 1911 1911 1515 White 0
3 PM Fri 66 68 SE 5 1911 1911 1515 White 0
4 PM Fri 66 67 SE 5 1692 1692 1296 White 0
5 PM Fri 66 67 SW 6 1692 1692 1296 White 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 1472 1472 1076 White 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 6 1252 1252 856 White 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 6 1031 1031 635 White 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 6 589 589 193 White 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 367 396 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 SW 3 367 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 SW 3 1031 1031 635 White 0
11 AM Sat 63 65 W 3 1252 1252 856 White 0
12 Noon Sat 65 68 W 3 1911 1911 1515 White 0
1 PM Sat 66 69 W 3 2130 2130 1734 White 0
2 PM Sat 68 71 W 3 2568 2568 2172 White 6
3 PM Sat 69 71 W 3 2568 2568 2172 White 6
4 PM Sat 68 70 W 3 2349 2349 1953 White 0
5 PM Sat 68 71 SW 7 2568 2568 2172 White 6
6 PM Sat 68 69 SW 7 2130 2130 1734 White 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 7 1692 1692 1296 White 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 1472 1472 1076 White 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 7 1031 1031 635 White 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 589 589 193 White 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 SE 8 367 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 S 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 S 6 589 589 193 White 0
10 AM Sun 62 65 S 6 1252 1252 856 White 0
11 AM Sun 63 68 W 5 1911 1911 1515 White 0
12 Noon Sun 65 70 W 5 2349 2349 1953 White 0
1 PM Sun 66 72 W 5 2785 2706 2310 White 7
2 PM Sun 68 74 W 5 3075 2851 2455 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 69 74 W 5 3075 2851 2455 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 68 72 W 5 2785 2706 2310 White 7
5 PM Sun 68 70 SW 5 2349 2349 1953 White 0
6 PM Sun 68 69 SW 5 2130 2130 1734 White 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 5 1692 1692 1296 White 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 5 1252 1252 856 White 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 5 810 810 414 White 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 589 589 193 White 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com