Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 58 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 SW 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 61 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 61 62 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 62 63 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 59 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 60 S 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 60 S 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 60 S 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 S 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 62 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 62 63 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 63 64 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 63 64 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 63 64 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 N 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 N 2 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 64 67 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 66 69 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 66 69 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 66 69 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 67 69 NW 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 68 69 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 N 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 64 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 65 67 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 66 69 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 68 71 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 68 71 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 68 71 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 69 71 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 70 71 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 68 68 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SE 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 63 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 63 64 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 64 66 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 65 67 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 66 68 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 66 68 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 66 67 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 67 67 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 65 65 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 S 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com