Detailed Predictions for: Chelan
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.80712500000001, -120.0336861111111, 3820
LZ Altitude (f): 1200
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 WNW 2 3 2594 3820 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 58 58 NNW 2 3 2594 3820 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 56 56 NNE 2 3 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 2 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 2 3 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 2 3 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 1 3 2409 3820 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 2 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 2 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 61 62 E 2 4 2802 3820 0 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 63 65 ESE 2 4 2962 3820 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 68 71 SE 2 4 3948 3820 0 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 71 74 SSE 2 4 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 74 77 S 2 4 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 76 78 SSW 3 5 8950 7209 3389 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 77 78 S 3 6 8950 7209 3389 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 78 78 S 3 6 8950 7209 3389 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 75 75 S 3 6 7337 4701 881 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 71 71 S 4 6 3948 3820 0 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 4 8 3122 3820 0 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 4 8 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 4 6 2802 3820 0 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 2 5 2695 3820 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 3 4 2695 3820 0 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 59 59 WSW 2 3 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 3 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 3 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 2 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 2 2 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 2 3 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 2 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 60 61 ENE 2 5 2748 3820 0 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 62 64 ENE 2 4 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 65 68 ENE 2 4 3122 3820 0 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 69 72 ENE 2 4 4766 3820 0 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 73 76 S 3 6 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 75 77 S 3 6 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 76 77 S 3 6 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 76 76 S 3 6 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 74 74 S 3 6 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 71 71 S 3 6 3948 3820 0 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 67 67 S 3 6 3068 3820 0 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 64 64 S 3 6 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 61 61 S 3 6 2748 3820 0 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 2 4 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 WNW 2 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 2 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 2 4 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 2 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 53 53 NW 2 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 2 3 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 2 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 56 56 NNW 2 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 59 60 NNW 2 4 2695 3820 0 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 63 65 E 3 5 2962 3820 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 67 70 E 3 5 3389 3820 0 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 70 73 E 3 5 5671 3820 0 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 73 75 SSE 4 8 7337 4701 881 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 75 77 SSE 4 8 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 76 77 SSE 4 8 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 76 76 SSE 3 5 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 74 74 SSE 3 5 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 71 71 SSE 3 5 3948 3820 0 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 67 67 S 3 6 3068 3820 0 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 3 6 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 3 6 2748 3820 0 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 59 59 NW 2 5 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NW 2 5 2594 3820 0 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 57 57 NW 2 5 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 57 57 NW 2 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 56 56 NW 2 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 55 55 NW 2 4 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 2 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 2 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 2 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 3 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 3 4 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 58 59 NNW 3 4 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 62 64 ENE 4 5 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 66 68 ENE 4 5 3122 3820 0 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 69 72 ENE 4 5 4766 3820 0 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 72 74 SE 4 6 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 74 76 SE 4 6 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 75 76 SE 4 6 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 75 75 SSE 4 6 7337 4701 881 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 73 73 SSE 4 6 5671 3820 0 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 70 70 SSE 4 6 3389 3820 0 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 66 66 NE 4 6 3015 3820 0 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 64 64 NE 4 6 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 62 62 NE 4 6 2802 3820 0 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 60 60 NW 3 4 2695 3820 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NW 3 4 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 4 2594 3820 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 57 57 NW 3 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 3 4 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 3 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 3 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 3 4 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 3 5 2440 3820 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 3 5 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 59 60 NNW 3 5 2695 3820 0 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 62 63 NNE 4 6 2855 3820 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 66 68 NNE 4 6 3122 3820 0 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 69 71 NNE 4 6 3948 3820 0 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 72 74 E 5 8 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 74 75 E 5 8 7337 4701 881 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 75 76 E 5 8 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 75 75 E 4 6 7337 4701 881 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 73 73 E 4 6 5671 3820 0 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 70 70 E 4 6 3389 3820 0 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 4 8 3068 3820 0 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 65 65 NNW 4 8 2962 3820 0 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 4 8 2855 3820 0 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 61 61 NW 4 5 2748 3820 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 NW 4 5 2642 3820 0 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 58 58 NW 4 5 2594 3820 0 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 4 4 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 56 56 NNW 4 4 2532 3820 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 4 2471 3820 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 55 55 NNW 4 5 2501 3820 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 4 5 2563 3820 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 60 61 NNW 4 5 2748 3820 0 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 63 65 NNE 5 8 2962 3820 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 66 68 NNE 5 8 3122 3820 0 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 70 72 NNE 5 8 4766 3820 0 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 73 76 ENE 5 10 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 75 77 ENE 5 10 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 76 77 ENE 5 10 8604 6422 2602 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 76 76 E 5 9 8082 5570 1750 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 74 74 E 5 9 6538 3900 80 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 70 70 E 5 9 3389 3820 0 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 67 67 N 4 9 3068 3820 0 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 64 64 N 4 9 2908 3820 0 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 62 62 N 4 9 2802 3820 0 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com