Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.2147, -122.759, 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 WNW 11 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 8 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 NW 4 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 E 1 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 ESE 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 SE 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 ESE 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 E 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 53 ENE 2 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 NW 1 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 55 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 60 WNW 6 8 2614 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 57 59 NW 6 9 2437 2388 2137 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 58 NW 7 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 4 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NW 2 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 NNW 2 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NNW 1 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NW 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 NW 2 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 NW 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 NNW 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 8 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 16 27 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 SE 21 33 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 SE 23 35 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 SE 25 37 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 SE 26 37 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 SSE 26 36 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 SSE 23 32 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 52 SSE 24 33 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 SSE 25 35 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 53 SSE 28 40 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 SSE 33 49 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 SSE 34 50 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 SSE 31 51 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 S 17 29 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 SSW 6 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SSW 2 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 4 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SE 6 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SE 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SE 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SSE 0 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 6 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 54 E 7 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 55 SE 4 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 56 SSE 3 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 0 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 SSE 1 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 SE 2 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 SE 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 SSE 5 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 S 7 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 SSE 10 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 SE 11 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 SE 12 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SSE 11 20 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com