Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 46 46 S 17 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 47 47 S 17 3382 2818 2567 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 46 46 S 17 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 46 46 S 18 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 46 46 S 18 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 46 46 S 18 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 46 46 S 22 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 48 48 S 22 3856 2939 2688 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 48 48 S 22 3856 2939 2688 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 48 48 S 21 3856 2939 2688 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 48 48 S 21 3856 2939 2688 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 48 48 S 21 3856 2939 2688 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 47 47 S 25 3382 2818 2567 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 46 46 S 25 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 46 46 S 25 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 46 46 S 29 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 46 46 S 29 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 45 45 S 29 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 45 45 S 30 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 45 45 S 30 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 S 30 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 30 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 30 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 45 45 S 30 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 22 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 22 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 22 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 44 44 S 23 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 44 44 S 23 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 44 44 S 23 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 44 44 S 24 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 24 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 46 46 S 24 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 46 46 S 23 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 46 46 S 23 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 46 46 S 23 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 46 46 S 23 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 45 45 S 23 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 45 45 S 23 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 44 44 S 21 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 44 44 S 21 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 44 44 S 21 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 44 44 S 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 44 44 S 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 43 43 S 15 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 43 43 S 15 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 15 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 43 43 SW 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 43 43 W 14 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 44 44 W 14 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 44 44 W 14 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 44 44 SW 6 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 45 45 SW 6 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 45 45 SW 6 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 46 46 SE 7 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 46 46 SE 7 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 46 46 SE 7 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 16 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 45 45 SE 16 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 45 45 SE 16 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 44 44 SE 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 44 44 SE 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 44 44 SE 16 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 44 44 SE 26 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 44 44 SE 26 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SE 26 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 43 43 SE 26 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 43 43 SE 26 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 44 44 SE 26 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 43 43 SE 28 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 43 43 SE 28 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 43 43 SE 28 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 43 43 SE 28 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 44 44 SE 28 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 44 44 SE 28 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 44 44 SE 26 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 45 45 SE 26 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 45 45 SE 26 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 46 46 SE 26 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 46 46 SE 26 3064 2705 2454 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 45 45 SE 26 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 8 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 44 44 S 8 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 8 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 9 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 42 42 S 9 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 42 42 S 9 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 42 42 W 5 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 44 44 W 5 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 44 44 W 5 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 45 45 W 5 2942 2664 2413 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 2819 2622 2371 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 43 43 SW 3 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 42 42 SW 3 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 42 42 SW 3 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 41 41 SW 3 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 41 41 SW 3 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 40 40 SE 12 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 41 41 SE 12 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SE 12 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 39 39 SE 12 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 39 39 SE 12 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 40 40 SE 12 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 39 39 S 20 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 39 39 S 20 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 38 38 S 20 2498 2398 2147 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 39 39 S 20 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 39 39 S 20 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 40 40 S 20 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 40 40 SE 22 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 42 42 SE 22 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 43 43 SE 22 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 43 43 SE 22 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 43 43 SE 22 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 43 43 SE 22 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 43 43 SE 12 2706 2581 2330 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 42 42 SE 12 2664 2539 2288 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 12 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 40 40 SE 12 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 41 41 SE 12 2622 2498 2247 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 40 40 SE 12 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 40 40 SE 17 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 40 40 SE 17 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SE 17 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 38 38 SE 17 2498 2398 2147 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 39 39 SE 17 2539 2415 2164 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 40 40 SE 17 2581 2456 2205 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com