Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 37 37 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 SW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 44 SE 6 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 46 46 SE 8 2688 2491 2240 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 47 47 SE 14 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 49 49 SW 8 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 49 49 W 6 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 49 49 S 17 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 49 49 S 17 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 17 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 47 47 SE 26 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 47 47 SE 26 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 47 47 SE 26 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 47 47 SE 31 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 44 44 SE 31 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SE 31 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 44 44 S 33 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 44 44 S 33 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 33 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 23 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 42 42 SW 23 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 23 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 30 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 30 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 45 45 W 30 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 47 47 W 31 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 48 48 W 31 2824 2615 2364 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 49 49 W 31 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 49 49 W 32 2892 2682 2431 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 48 48 W 32 2824 2615 2364 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 47 47 W 32 2756 2547 2296 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 46 46 W 28 2688 2491 2240 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 45 45 W 28 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 28 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 44 44 W 21 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 21 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 21 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 10 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 42 42 NW 10 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 10 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 7 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 7 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 41 41 N 7 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 40 40 E 7 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 E 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 E 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 43 43 NE 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 44 44 NE 5 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 45 45 N 8 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 45 45 N 8 2621 2459 2208 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 44 44 N 8 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 44 44 N 8 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 41 41 N 8 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 41 41 NE 6 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 40 40 NE 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 NE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 42 43 E 6 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 43 43 E 6 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 43 43 E 6 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 43 43 E 6 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 42 42 E 6 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 40 40 E 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 E 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 E 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 41 SE 6 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 42 42 SE 6 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 43 43 SE 6 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 43 43 N 3 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 3 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 42 42 N 3 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 41 41 N 3 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 3 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 41 NE 5 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 42 42 NE 5 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 43 43 NE 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 44 44 NE 5 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 44 44 NE 5 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 44 44 NE 5 2553 2428 2177 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 43 43 NE 5 2493 2397 2146 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 42 42 NE 5 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 42 42 NE 5 2462 2388 2137 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 41 41 NE 5 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 41 41 NE 5 2431 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 40 40 NE 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 E 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 E 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 5 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 2400 2388 2137 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com