Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.2147, -122.759, 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 63 WNW 6 9 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 63 WNW 6 9 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 64 WNW 5 6 2424 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 62 64 WNW 5 6 2424 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 62 63 WNW 5 6 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NNE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 60 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 63 WNW 4 5 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 63 WNW 4 5 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 63 WNW 4 5 2394 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 62 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 56 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 59 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 60 S 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 61 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 61 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 WSW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 WSW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 N 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 58 N 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 59 N 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 61 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 60 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 60 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 54 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 57 NNW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 58 NNW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 59 NNW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 60 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 60 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 WNW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 53 NW 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 58 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 60 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 61 NW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 62 NW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 61 NW 6 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 60 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 5 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 5 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 5 5 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com