Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 N 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 N 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 NW 10 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 50 50 NW 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 50 NW 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 51 NW 13 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 51 51 NW 9 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 53 53 NW 9 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 9 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 NW 8 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 51 55 NW 10 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 51 56 NW 10 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 51 56 NW 10 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 52 57 W 18 2453 2417 2166 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 52 56 W 18 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 53 56 W 18 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 52 53 W 29 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 29 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 29 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 29 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 29 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 29 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 W 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NW 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 W 21 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 50 53 W 21 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 50 53 W 21 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 51 54 W 21 2418 2394 2143 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 51 53 W 21 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 52 53 W 21 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 50 51 W 22 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 51 NW 10 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 50 53 NW 12 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NW 12 2418 2394 2143 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 50 54 NW 12 2418 2394 2143 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 51 55 NW 12 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 52 55 NW 12 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 53 55 NW 12 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 52 53 NW 8 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 8 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 8 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 W 3 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 52 54 NW 9 2418 2394 2143 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 53 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 52 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 53 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 53 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 55 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 53 54 W 14 2418 2394 2143 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 14 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 14 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 14 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NW 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NW 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NW 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NW 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 NW 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 52 53 NW 14 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 53 55 NW 9 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 53 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 54 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 54 56 NW 9 2439 2409 2158 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 56 57 NW 9 2453 2417 2166 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 54 55 NW 8 2428 2402 2151 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 53 53 NW 8 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 53 53 NW 8 2410 2388 2137 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 52 52 NW 8 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 8 2402 2388 2137 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 51 51 NW 8 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 50 50 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com