Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 SE 3 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 S 5 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 59 61 S 5 367 367 116 White 0
10 AM Tue 60 63 S 5 810 810 559 White 0
11 AM Tue 61 66 W 9 1472 1472 1221 White 0
12 Noon Tue 62 68 W 9 1911 1911 1660 White 0
1 PM Tue 63 70 W 9 2349 2349 2098 White 0
2 PM Tue 63 70 W 8 2349 2349 2098 White 0
3 PM Tue 64 70 W 8 2349 2349 2098 White 0
4 PM Tue 64 68 W 8 1911 1911 1660 White 0
5 PM Tue 65 68 W 13 1911 1911 1660 White 0
6 PM Tue 64 65 W 13 1252 1252 1001 White 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 13 1031 1031 780 White 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 13 810 810 559 White 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 589 589 338 White 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 589 589 338 White 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 5 146 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 5 146 251 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SW 5 146 251 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 146 251 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 146 251 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 W 7 146 251 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 W 7 589 589 338 White 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 W 7 1031 1031 780 White 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 W 6 1252 1252 1001 White 0
12 Noon Wed 64 67 W 6 1692 1692 1441 White 0
1 PM Wed 66 69 W 6 2130 2130 1879 White 0
2 PM Wed 66 69 W 7 2130 2130 1879 White 0
3 PM Wed 68 71 W 7 2568 2568 2317 White 6
4 PM Wed 68 70 W 7 2349 2349 2098 White 0
5 PM Wed 69 71 W 20 2568 2568 2317 White 6
6 PM Wed 67 68 W 20 1911 1911 1660 White 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 20 1692 1692 1441 White 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 18 1252 1252 1001 White 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 18 1031 1031 780 White 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 20 367 367 116 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 W 20 367 367 116 White 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 W 20 146 251 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 7 367 367 116 White 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 146 251 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 1 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 S 1 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 1 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 W 5 146 251 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 W 5 367 367 116 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 W 7 810 810 559 White 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 W 7 1031 1031 780 White 0
1 PM Thu 63 66 W 7 1472 1472 1221 White 0
2 PM Thu 63 66 W 12 1472 1472 1221 White 0
3 PM Thu 64 66 W 12 1472 1472 1221 White 0
4 PM Thu 64 66 W 12 1472 1472 1221 White 0
5 PM Thu 65 66 W 20 1472 1472 1221 White 0
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 20 1031 1031 780 White 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 20 810 810 559 White 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 18 589 589 338 White 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 18 367 367 116 White 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 18 146 251 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 W 18 367 367 116 White 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 W 18 589 589 338 White 0
1 PM Fri 61 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
2 PM Fri 61 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
3 PM Fri 62 64 W 18 1031 1031 780 White 0
4 PM Fri 62 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
5 PM Fri 63 64 W 18 1031 1031 780 White 0
6 PM Fri 62 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 18 589 589 338 White 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 18 146 251 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 W 15 146 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 59 62 W 14 589 589 338 White 0
12 Noon Sat 60 63 W 14 810 810 559 White 0
1 PM Sat 62 65 W 14 1252 1252 1001 White 0
2 PM Sat 62 65 W 14 1252 1252 1001 White 0
3 PM Sat 64 67 W 14 1692 1692 1441 White 0
4 PM Sat 64 66 W 14 1472 1472 1221 White 0
5 PM Sat 65 68 W 18 1911 1911 1660 White 0
6 PM Sat 63 64 W 18 1031 1031 780 White 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 18 810 810 559 White 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 18 367 367 116 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 18 367 367 116 White 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 18 146 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 W 9 146 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 59 63 W 13 810 810 559 White 0
12 Noon Sun 60 65 W 13 1252 1252 1001 White 0
1 PM Sun 61 66 W 13 1472 1472 1221 White 0
2 PM Sun 62 67 W 13 1692 1692 1441 White 0
3 PM Sun 63 68 W 13 1911 1911 1660 White 0
4 PM Sun 63 67 W 13 1692 1692 1441 White 0
5 PM Sun 64 66 W 17 1472 1472 1221 White 0
6 PM Sun 63 64 W 17 1031 1031 780 White 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 17 589 589 338 White 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 17 367 367 116 White 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 17 146 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com