Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 E 1 1467 1467 1216 White 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 1 1467 1467 1216 White 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 1 1679 1679 1428 White 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
12 Noon Sat 42 42 SE 3 1889 1889 1638 White 0
1 PM Sat 42 42 SE 12 1889 1889 1638 White 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 SE 12 1889 1889 1638 White 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 SE 12 2099 2099 1848 White 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SE 16 1889 1889 1638 White 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 SE 16 1679 1679 1428 White 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 SE 16 1467 1467 1216 White 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 SE 14 1679 1679 1428 White 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 SE 14 1679 1679 1428 White 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 SE 14 1467 1467 1216 White 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 E 9 1467 1467 1216 White 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 9 1467 1467 1216 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 9 1467 1467 1216 White 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NE 7 1257 1257 1006 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 7 1257 1257 1006 White 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 NE 7 1046 1046 795 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 1046 1046 795 White 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 1046 1046 795 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 1046 1046 795 White 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 1046 1046 795 White 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NE 5 1257 1257 1006 White 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 NE 5 1257 1257 1006 White 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 N 14 1257 1257 1006 White 0
11 AM Sun 39 40 N 14 1467 1467 1216 White 0
12 Noon Sun 40 41 N 14 1679 1679 1428 White 0
1 PM Sun 40 41 N 20 1679 1679 1428 White 0
2 PM Sun 40 41 N 20 1679 1679 1428 White 0
3 PM Sun 40 40 N 20 1467 1467 1216 White 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 N 21 1257 1257 1006 White 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 N 21 834 834 583 White 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 N 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 N 21 834 834 583 White 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 N 21 834 834 583 White 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 N 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 N 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 E 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 37 NW 5 834 834 583 White 0
11 AM Mon 36 37 NW 5 834 834 583 White 0
12 Noon Mon 37 38 NW 5 1046 1046 795 White 0
1 PM Mon 37 38 NW 5 1046 1046 795 White 0
2 PM Mon 37 38 NW 5 1046 1046 795 White 0
3 PM Mon 38 38 NW 5 1046 1046 795 White 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 S 8 1046 1046 795 White 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 834 834 583 White 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 834 834 583 White 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 834 834 583 White 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 834 834 583 White 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 834 834 583 White 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 SE 9 834 834 583 White 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 SE 9 834 834 583 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 834 834 583 White 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 834 834 583 White 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 1046 1046 795 White 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 1046 1046 795 White 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 SE 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
11 AM Tue 39 39 SE 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
12 Noon Tue 39 39 SE 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
1 PM Tue 39 39 SE 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
2 PM Tue 39 39 SE 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
3 PM Tue 40 40 SE 12 1467 1467 1216 White 0
4 PM Tue 40 40 S 3 1467 1467 1216 White 0
5 PM Tue 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 S 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 S 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 S 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 1046 1046 795 White 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 1046 1046 795 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 8 1046 1046 795 White 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 1046 1046 795 White 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 834 834 583 White 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 834 834 583 White 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NW 12 1046 1046 795 White 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NW 12 834 834 583 White 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NW 12 834 834 583 White 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 NW 12 1046 1046 795 White 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 NW 12 1257 1257 1006 White 0
10 AM Wed 40 40 NW 15 1467 1467 1216 White 0
11 AM Wed 40 40 NW 15 1467 1467 1216 White 0
12 Noon Wed 40 40 NW 15 1467 1467 1216 White 0
1 PM Wed 40 40 NW 15 1467 1467 1216 White 0
2 PM Wed 40 40 NW 15 1467 1467 1216 White 0
3 PM Wed 41 41 NW 15 1679 1679 1428 White 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 NW 14 1679 1679 1428 White 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 NW 14 1467 1467 1216 White 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 NW 14 1257 1257 1006 White 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NW 14 1257 1257 1006 White 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 NW 14 1257 1257 1006 White 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NW 14 1257 1257 1006 White 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 N 10 1257 1257 1006 White 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 N 10 1046 1046 795 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 N 10 1046 1046 795 White 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 N 10 1046 1046 795 White 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 N 10 1046 1046 795 White 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 N 10 834 834 583 White 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 N 7 1046 1046 795 White 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 N 7 834 834 583 White 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 N 7 834 834 583 White 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 N 7 1046 1046 795 White 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 1257 1257 1006 White 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 1257 1257 1006 White 0
10 AM Thu 40 40 NW 3 1467 1467 1216 White 0
11 AM Thu 40 41 NW 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
12 Noon Thu 40 41 NW 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
1 PM Thu 40 41 NW 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
2 PM Thu 40 41 NW 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
3 PM Thu 41 41 NW 3 1679 1679 1428 White 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 NW 3 1467 1467 1216 White 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 NW 3 1257 1257 1006 White 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 NW 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 NW 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 NW 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 NW 3 1046 1046 795 White 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 SE 8 834 834 583 White 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 SE 8 834 834 583 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 SE 8 834 834 583 White 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 834 834 583 White 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com