Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 51 51 NW 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NW 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 NW 5 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 53 55 NW 5 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 54 57 NW 5 2435 2411 2160 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 56 61 W 7 2466 2442 2191 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 57 63 W 7 2491 2458 2207 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 57 63 W 7 2491 2458 2207 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 58 64 W 8 2507 2466 2215 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 60 65 W 8 2523 2473 2222 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 61 64 W 8 2507 2466 2215 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 60 62 NW 5 2475 2450 2199 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 61 62 NW 5 2475 2450 2199 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 2451 2426 2175 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 2451 2426 2175 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 8 2435 2411 2160 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 2427 2403 2152 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 2427 2403 2152 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NW 10 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 10 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 2411 2388 2137 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 2411 2388 2137 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 S 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 S 8 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 53 55 S 8 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 54 57 SE 10 2435 2411 2160 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 54 57 SE 10 2435 2411 2160 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 55 58 SE 10 2443 2418 2167 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 55 58 W 9 2443 2418 2167 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 56 59 W 9 2451 2426 2175 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 56 58 W 9 2443 2418 2167 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 2427 2403 2152 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 2427 2403 2152 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 10 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 55 55 SW 3 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 3 2411 2388 2137 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 3 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 53 53 E 2 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 E 2 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 51 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 51 SW 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 52 SW 3 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 52 52 SW 3 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 52 52 SW 5 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 53 53 S 3 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 53 53 S 3 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 52 52 S 3 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 8 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 SW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 SW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 50 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 50 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 51 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 51 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 51 S 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 51 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 52 52 W 22 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 52 52 W 22 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 53 53 W 22 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 53 53 W 22 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 52 52 W 25 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 25 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 25 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 25 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 25 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 25 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 W 12 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 51 52 NW 7 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 52 53 NW 7 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 52 54 NW 7 2411 2388 2137 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 53 55 NW 7 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 54 55 NW 7 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 54 55 NW 7 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 54 55 W 16 2419 2395 2144 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 16 2411 2388 2137 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 16 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 53 53 W 16 2403 2388 2137 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 16 2395 2388 2137 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 51 51 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com