Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 48 48 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 49 49 S 18 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 S 18 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 18 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 S 21 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 S 21 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 S 21 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 S 15 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 15 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 S 15 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 9 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 SW 9 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 SW 9 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 SW 7 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 SW 7 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 47 47 SW 7 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 48 48 W 29 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 49 50 W 29 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 51 52 W 29 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 W 30 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 53 53 W 30 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 30 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 W 31 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 31 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 31 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 SW 10 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 10 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 10 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SE 10 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SE 10 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 10 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 48 48 SE 25 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 49 49 SE 25 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 50 50 SE 25 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 51 51 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 52 52 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 53 53 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 54 54 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 56 56 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 SE 14 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 SE 12 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 14 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 53 53 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 54 54 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 55 55 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 SW 12 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 10 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 49 49 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 51 52 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 N 8 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 0 251 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com