Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.2147, -122.759, 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 W 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 W 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 50 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 49 49 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 49 49 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 50 51 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 51 52 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 51 52 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 51 51 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 51 51 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 51 51 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 51 51 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 51 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 50 50 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 50 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 49 49 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 49 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 49 49 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 48 SE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 49 49 SE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 50 SE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 50 50 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 52 52 SSE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 52 52 SE 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 52 52 SE 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 SE 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 51 51 SE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 SE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 SE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 51 ESE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 ESE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 52 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 52 52 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 53 54 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 50 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 51 51 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 52 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 52 53 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 52 53 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 53 54 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 53 54 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 53 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 53 53 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 53 53 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 52 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 51 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 51 SSE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SSE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 50 S 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 50 S 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 50 50 S 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 51 51 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 52 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 53 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 47 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 46 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 48 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 49 SSE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 50 50 SSE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 51 51 SSE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 52 52 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 52 52 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 52 52 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 50 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]