Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.2147, -122.759, 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 NW 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 40 40 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 40 40 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 40 41 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 41 42 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 41 42 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 42 43 SE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 43 43 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 43 43 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 42 42 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 SSE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 38 38 SSE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 36 36 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 33 33 S 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 37 37 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 SE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 SE 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 SE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 SE 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 SE 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 SE 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 41 41 SE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 41 41 SE 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 42 42 SE 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 43 43 SE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 44 44 SE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 45 45 SE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 45 45 ESE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 46 46 ESE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 46 46 ESE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 46 46 ESE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 46 46 SE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 46 46 SE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 45 SE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 45 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 SE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 SE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 SE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 SE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 42 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 42 42 SE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 44 SE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 45 46 SE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 46 47 SE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 47 48 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 48 S 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 48 48 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 45 45 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 45 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com