Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 SE 24 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 E 12 201 251 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 E 12 201 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 E 12 201 251 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 33 426 426 175 White 0
2 PM Fri 50 50 S 33 201 251 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 S 33 201 251 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 S 38 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 38 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 S 38 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 W 33 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 W 33 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 33 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SW 6 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 S 10 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 SE 16 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 45 45 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 45 45 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 46 46 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 47 47 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 SE 26 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SE 20 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 SE 23 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 47 47 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 48 48 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 48 48 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 49 49 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 SE 22 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SE 18 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 SE 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 51 51 SE 17 426 426 175 White 0
3 PM Mon 51 51 SE 17 426 426 175 White 0
4 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SE 21 201 251 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SE 26 201 251 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 SE 23 426 426 175 White 0
10 AM Tue 52 52 S 22 651 651 400 White 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 S 22 651 651 400 White 0
12 Noon Tue 52 52 S 22 651 651 400 White 0
1 PM Tue 53 53 S 22 876 876 625 White 0
2 PM Tue 53 53 S 22 876 876 625 White 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 S 22 876 876 625 White 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 SW 15 651 651 400 White 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 SW 15 426 426 175 White 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 SW 15 426 426 175 White 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 SW 15 201 251 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SW 15 201 251 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 15 426 426 175 White 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 S 13 426 426 175 White 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 S 13 426 426 175 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 S 13 201 251 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 S 13 201 251 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 S 13 201 251 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 S 13 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 201 251 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 51 51 SE 16 426 426 175 White 0
11 AM Wed 51 51 SE 16 426 426 175 White 0
12 Noon Wed 51 51 SE 16 426 426 175 White 0
1 PM Wed 52 52 SE 16 651 651 400 White 0
2 PM Wed 52 52 SE 16 651 651 400 White 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 SE 16 651 651 400 White 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 SE 17 426 426 175 White 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 SE 17 201 251 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SE 17 0 251 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com