Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 56 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 58 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 59 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 61 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 62 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 62 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 60 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 59 SW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 59 SW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 63 SW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 64 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 64 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 62 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 61 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 60 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 61 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 63 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 66 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 67 NW 10 2426 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 68 NW 10 2486 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 62 65 NW 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 63 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 61 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 62 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 63 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 66 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 67 NW 8 2426 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 67 NW 8 2426 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 65 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 63 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 62 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 63 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 65 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 68 NW 8 2486 2388 2137 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 66 70 NW 8 2606 2421 2170 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 67 71 NW 8 2667 2482 2231 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 66 69 NW 8 2546 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 64 66 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 65 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 N 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 62 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 62 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 66 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 66 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 66 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 64 N 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 62 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com