Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 53 53 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 58 62 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 58 63 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 59 64 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 60 65 W 8 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 60 64 W 8 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 61 64 W 8 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 60 62 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 59 60 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 53 54 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 58 62 W 12 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 59 64 W 12 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 60 65 W 12 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 61 66 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 61 65 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 62 65 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 61 63 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 60 61 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 W 7 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 58 61 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 59 63 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 59 63 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 60 64 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 61 65 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 61 64 W 9 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 60 63 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 60 61 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 57 59 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 58 60 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 58 60 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 59 61 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 59 61 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 59 60 W 17 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 58 59 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 W 16 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 56 58 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 57 59 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 58 60 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 58 60 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 58 59 W 18 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 57 58 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 25 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 20 0 251 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 55 55 W 15 0 251 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 57 59 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 58 60 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 59 61 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 59 60 W 13 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 58 59 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 22 0 251 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 14 0 251 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 14 0 251 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com