Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 2412 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 2412 2388 2137 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 2412 2388 2137 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 48 48 NW 2 2412 2388 2137 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 52 53 NW 2 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 52 53 W 3 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 53 55 W 3 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 53 55 W 3 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 55 57 W 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 56 57 W 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 56 57 W 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 8 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 8 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 53 53 W 7 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 7 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 7 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 51 51 SE 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SE 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 2427 2388 2137 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 51 51 SE 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 53 54 S 2 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 54 56 S 2 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 54 56 S 2 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 56 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 57 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 57 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 56 56 NW 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 54 54 NW 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 54 54 NW 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 52 52 SW 5 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 53 54 S 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 53 54 S 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 54 55 S 5 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 55 56 S 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 56 57 S 5 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 56 56 S 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 54 54 NW 6 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 53 53 NW 6 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 6 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 6 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 52 53 W 6 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 53 54 N 7 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 53 55 N 7 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 54 56 N 7 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 55 57 N 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 56 57 N 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 56 57 N 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 8 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 53 53 NW 8 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 8 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 8 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 52 53 NW 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 53 54 NW 7 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NW 7 2579 2472 2221 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 54 56 NW 7 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 55 57 NW 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 56 57 NW 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 56 57 NW 7 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 57 57 NW 6 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 56 56 NW 6 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 54 54 NW 6 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 53 53 NW 6 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 53 53 NW 6 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 52 52 NW 6 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 51 51 NW 6 2458 2410 2159 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 3 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 50 50 W 3 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 50 50 W 3 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 50 50 W 3 2442 2395 2144 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 52 52 W 3 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 53 54 W 3 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 53 54 N 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 54 56 N 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 54 56 N 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 55 57 N 5 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 56 57 N 5 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 56 57 N 5 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 2742 2573 2322 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 2708 2509 2258 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 2643 2487 2236 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 2515 2456 2205 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 53 53 SE 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SE 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 2488 2441 2190 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 52 52 SE 5 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 52 52 SE 5 2473 2426 2175 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com