Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 44 S 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 47 S 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 48 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 48 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 E 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 E 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 E 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 E 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 SE 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 SE 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SE 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 SE 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 SE 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 47 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 48 SE 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 SE 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 47 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 48 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 48 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 48 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 SE 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 S 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 46 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 47 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 47 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 0 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 W 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 45 45 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 SE 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 43 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 44 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 44 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 45 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 45 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 SE 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com