Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 57 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 60 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 63 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 65 NW 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 67 NW 8 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 67 W 8 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 66 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 66 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 65 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 63 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NW 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 NW 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 62 NW 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 64 W 15 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 67 W 15 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 71 W 15 2407 2393 2142 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 65 71 W 13 2407 2393 2142 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 65 70 W 13 2403 2389 2138 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 66 70 W 13 2403 2389 2138 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 66 68 W 13 2394 2388 2137 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 66 67 W 13 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 W 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 W 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 W 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 63 NW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 64 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 67 W 6 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 71 W 6 2407 2393 2142 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 64 70 W 5 2403 2389 2138 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 65 70 W 5 2403 2389 2138 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 65 69 W 5 2398 2388 2137 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 65 67 NW 5 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 66 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 W 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 N 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 63 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 65 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 67 W 13 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 67 W 13 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 67 W 13 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 65 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 64 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 24 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 W 21 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 59 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 62 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 65 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 65 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 67 W 13 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 66 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 62 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 65 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 65 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 67 SW 1 2389 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 66 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 65 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com