Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 58 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 59 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 60 W 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 61 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 61 62 W 6 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 59 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 59 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 60 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 61 SE 6 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SE 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 SW 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 60 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 61 NW 5 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 60 61 NW 5 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 61 62 NW 5 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 61 62 NW 5 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 61 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 61 64 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 62 66 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 64 67 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 64 67 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 63 65 NW 8 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 63 64 NW 7 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 62 65 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 63 66 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 65 68 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 65 68 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 64 66 N 2 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 63 64 N 1 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 N 1 0 251 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 N 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 N 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 N 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 N 1 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SE 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 SE 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 S 7 0 251 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 61 63 S 7 0 251 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 63 65 S 7 0 251 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 63 65 S 7 0 251 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 62 63 S 7 0 251 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 0 251 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com