Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 SE 1 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 58 58 SE 1 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 59 59 SE 1 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 63 63 SE 3 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 66 67 SE 3 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 68 70 SE 3 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 69 74 E 5 6675 5738 3694 White 19
12 Noon Tue 71 77 E 5 7306 7306 5262 White 22
1 PM Tue 75 81 E 5 8142 8142 6098 White 26
2 PM Tue 76 82 E 5 8350 8350 6306 White 27
3 PM Tue 76 81 E 5 8142 8142 6098 White 26
4 PM Tue 76 80 E 5 7933 7933 5889 White 25
5 PM Tue 78 81 NE 6 8142 8142 6098 White 26
6 PM Tue 78 79 NE 6 7724 7724 5680 White 24
7 PM Tue 75 75 NE 6 6886 6886 4842 White 20
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 1 6250 3441 1397 White 17
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 1 3491 3218 1174 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 1 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 66 66 SW 2 3222 2996 952 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SW 2 3147 2922 878 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 2925 2700 656 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 61 61 SW 3 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 3 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 61 61 W 1 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 1 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 1 2925 2700 656 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 3147 2922 878 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 69 70 E 3 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 71 73 E 3 6464 4403 2359 White 18
11 AM Wed 72 74 E 5 6675 5738 3694 White 19
12 Noon Wed 74 77 E 5 7306 7306 5262 White 22
1 PM Wed 79 82 E 5 8350 8350 6306 White 27
2 PM Wed 80 83 E 6 8558 8558 6514 White 28
3 PM Wed 80 83 E 6 8558 8558 6514 White 28
4 PM Wed 80 82 E 6 8350 8350 6306 White 27
5 PM Wed 82 84 NE 8 8765 8765 6721 White 29
6 PM Wed 81 82 NE 8 8350 8350 6306 White 27
7 PM Wed 77 77 NE 8 7306 7306 5262 White 22
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 3 6464 4403 2359 White 18
9 PM Wed 69 69 NW 3 3491 3218 1174 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 66 66 NW 3 3222 2996 952 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 3 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 SW 3 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 2 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 2 2480 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 2554 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 62 63 S 5 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 63 65 S 5 3147 2922 878 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 64 66 SE 6 3222 2996 952 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 65 68 SE 6 3371 3144 1100 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 68 71 SE 6 6035 3367 1323 White 16
2 PM Thu 69 72 SE 6 6250 3441 1397 White 17
3 PM Thu 69 72 SE 6 6250 3441 1397 White 17
4 PM Thu 69 71 SE 6 6035 3367 1323 White 16
5 PM Thu 70 71 SE 6 6035 3367 1323 White 16
6 PM Thu 70 70 SE 6 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 67 67 SE 6 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 64 64 E 3 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 61 61 E 3 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 59 59 E 3 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 58 58 NE 6 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 NE 6 2554 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 2480 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 2406 2388 344 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 NE 3 2554 2388 344 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 58 59 NE 3 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 58 59 NE 5 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NE 5 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 62 64 NE 5 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 64 NE 5 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 62 64 NE 5 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 62 63 NE 5 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 63 64 N 2 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 63 63 N 2 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 61 61 N 2 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 59 59 N 2 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 2 2554 2388 344 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 2 2406 2388 344 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SE 2 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 58 60 SE 2 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 59 62 E 3 2925 2700 656 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 61 64 E 3 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 64 67 E 3 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 65 68 E 3 3371 3144 1100 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 65 68 E 3 3371 3144 1100 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 65 67 E 3 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 66 68 E 5 3371 3144 1100 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 66 67 E 5 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 64 64 E 5 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 61 61 E 5 2850 2626 582 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 59 59 E 5 2702 2478 434 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 5 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 57 57 SW 2 2554 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SW 2 2480 2388 344 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 2406 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 S 1 2480 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 58 60 S 1 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 59 62 S 1 2925 2700 656 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 60 64 E 5 3073 2848 804 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 66 E 5 3222 2996 952 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 64 70 E 5 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 65 70 E 5 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 65 70 E 5 4483 3293 1249 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 65 69 E 5 3491 3218 1174 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 66 68 NE 3 3371 3144 1100 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 66 67 NE 3 3296 3070 1026 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 63 63 NE 3 2999 2774 730 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 60 60 NE 3 2776 2552 508 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 2628 2404 360 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 2480 2388 344 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 2 2406 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com