Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 3 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 3 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 48 48 N 1 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 1 2840 2770 726 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 56 57 N 1 3245 2886 842 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 59 60 E 3 4139 3239 1195 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 61 63 E 3 4656 4114 2070 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 64 66 E 3 4936 4646 2602 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 65 67 E 6 5028 4741 2697 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 64 65 E 6 4843 4548 2504 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 66 67 E 6 5028 4741 2697 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 62 62 NW 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 59 59 NW 5 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 55 55 NW 5 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 7 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 7 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 7 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 7 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 6 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 49 49 W 6 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 6 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 6 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 47 47 SW 6 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 55 56 SW 6 3114 2863 819 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 58 59 S 8 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 60 62 S 8 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 63 65 S 8 4843 4548 2504 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 65 67 S 7 5028 4741 2697 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 64 66 S 7 4936 4646 2602 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 66 67 S 7 5028 4741 2697 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 55 55 NW 5 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 54 54 NW 5 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 51 51 NW 5 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 3 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SW 3 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 3 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 3 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 3 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 48 48 W 3 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 2656 2490 446 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 2656 2490 446 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 56 57 SE 2 3245 2886 842 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 58 59 SE 2 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 61 62 SE 2 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 62 63 SE 2 4656 4114 2070 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 62 63 SE 2 4656 4114 2070 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 63 63 SE 2 4656 4114 2070 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 60 60 NE 3 4139 3239 1195 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 58 58 NE 3 3487 2977 933 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 54 54 NE 3 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 53 53 NE 3 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 51 51 NE 3 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 6 2817 2747 703 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 6 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 6 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 54 55 N 5 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 56 57 NE 5 3245 2886 842 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 57 59 NE 5 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 59 61 NE 5 4459 3468 1424 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 60 62 NE 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 60 61 NE 5 4459 3468 1424 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 61 62 NE 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 58 58 N 5 3487 2977 933 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 3114 2863 819 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 5 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 2840 2770 726 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 50 50 N 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 49 49 NW 5 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 5 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 2 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 47 47 NW 2 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 47 47 NW 2 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 50 50 NW 2 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 54 55 NW 2 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 56 57 N 3 3245 2886 842 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 57 59 N 3 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 59 61 N 3 4459 3468 1424 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 60 62 N 3 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 60 62 N 3 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 61 62 N 3 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 58 58 N 3 3487 2977 933 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 3114 2863 819 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 3 2840 2770 726 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 50 50 NW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 49 49 NW 5 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 48 48 NW 5 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 49 49 NW 3 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 48 48 NW 3 2748 2589 545 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 47 47 NW 3 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 47 47 NW 3 2722 2523 479 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 50 50 NW 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 54 55 NW 3 2983 2840 796 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 56 57 SE 5 3245 2886 842 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 57 59 SE 5 3814 3108 1064 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 59 61 SE 5 4459 3468 1424 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 60 62 SE 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 60 62 SE 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 61 62 SE 5 4557 3793 1749 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 58 58 S 3 3487 2977 933 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 56 56 S 3 3114 2863 819 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 54 54 S 3 2887 2816 772 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 53 53 S 3 2864 2793 749 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 52 52 S 3 2840 2770 726 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 50 50 S 3 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 50 50 SW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 2794 2720 676 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 5 2771 2654 610 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2748 2589 545 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com