Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 19 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 N 9 11 2302 2302 258 White 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 8 10 2302 2302 258 White 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 N 6 9 2084 2084 40 White 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NNW 8 10 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 6 9 2084 2084 40 White 0
9 AM Fri 47 49 NNE 6 9 2950 2950 906 White 12
10 AM Fri 51 54 NNE 9 11 4021 4021 1977 White 17
11 AM Fri 53 57 NE 9 11 4661 4661 2617 White 20
12 Noon Fri 57 62 NE 9 11 5707 5707 3663 White 25
1 PM Fri 58 64 NE 9 11 6121 6121 4077 White 27
2 PM Fri 59 64 NE 10 13 6121 6121 4077 White 27
3 PM Fri 60 65 NE 9 11 6326 6326 4282 White 28
4 PM Fri 60 63 NE 8 10 5914 5914 3870 White 26
5 PM Fri 61 63 NE 9 11 5914 5914 3870 White 26
6 PM Fri 59 60 NNE 9 11 5292 5292 3248 White 23
7 PM Fri 57 57 N 9 11 4661 4661 2617 White 20
8 PM Fri 54 54 N 10 13 4021 4021 1977 White 17
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 11 3379 3379 1335 White 14
10 PM Fri 50 50 N 9 11 3165 3165 1121 White 13
11 PM Fri 49 49 N 6 9 2950 2950 906 White 12
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 N 6 9 2520 2520 476 White 10
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 9 2520 2520 476 White 10
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 6 9 2302 2302 258 White 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 9 2084 2084 40 White 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 N 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NNW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 1 1 2084 2084 40 White 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 NNW 1 1 2520 2520 476 White 10
10 AM Sat 52 52 NNW 1 1 3593 3593 1549 White 15
11 AM Sat 55 56 S 9 11 4448 4448 2404 White 19
12 Noon Sat 58 59 S 9 11 5084 5084 3040 White 22
1 PM Sat 58 59 S 9 11 5084 5084 3040 White 22
2 PM Sat 57 58 SSW 14 19 4873 4873 2829 White 21
3 PM Sat 55 56 SSW 14 19 4448 4448 2404 White 19
4 PM Sat 52 53 SSW 14 19 3808 3808 1764 White 16
5 PM Sat 49 49 SSW 18 24 2950 2950 906 White 12
6 PM Sat 47 47 SSW 18 24 2520 2520 476 White 10
7 PM Sat 45 45 SSW 18 24 2084 2084 40 White 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 SSW 14 19 1866 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 SSW 14 19 1771 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SSW 14 19 1771 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 SSW 12 16 1771 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 SSW 12 16 1771 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 12 16 1771 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 9 11 1771 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 9 11 1771 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 9 11 1771 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 SSW 6 9 1771 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 6 9 1866 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 SSW 6 9 2520 2520 476 White 10
11 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 8 10 2950 2950 906 White 12
12 Noon Sun 50 50 SSW 8 10 3165 3165 1121 White 13
1 PM Sun 51 52 SSW 8 10 3593 3593 1549 White 15
2 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 8 10 3379 3379 1335 White 14
3 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 8 10 3379 3379 1335 White 14
4 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 8 10 3165 3165 1121 White 13
5 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 9 2950 2950 906 White 12
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 9 2735 2735 691 White 11
7 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 9 2302 2302 258 White 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NNW 5 8 2084 2084 40 White 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NNW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 WNW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 WNW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 WNW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NW 4 5 1771 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 4 5 1771 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 4 5 1771 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NNW 3 4 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NNW 3 4 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NNW 3 4 1771 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 N 5 8 2084 2084 40 White 0
10 AM Mon 47 49 N 5 8 2950 2950 906 White 12
11 AM Mon 50 53 NE 8 10 3808 3808 1764 White 16
12 Noon Mon 52 56 NE 8 10 4448 4448 2404 White 19
1 PM Mon 54 58 NE 8 10 4873 4873 2829 White 21
2 PM Mon 55 59 NE 10 13 5084 5084 3040 White 22
3 PM Mon 56 59 NE 10 13 5084 5084 3040 White 22
4 PM Mon 56 58 NE 10 13 4873 4873 2829 White 21
5 PM Mon 55 56 NE 10 13 4448 4448 2404 White 19
6 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 13 3808 3808 1764 White 16
7 PM Mon 51 51 NE 10 13 3379 3379 1335 White 14
8 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 10 2950 2950 906 White 12
9 PM Mon 47 47 N 8 10 2520 2520 476 White 10
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 8 10 2302 2302 258 White 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 8 2084 2084 40 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NNW 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 4 5 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 4 5 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NW 4 5 1866 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 N 4 5 2302 2302 258 White 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 N 4 5 2950 2950 906 White 12
10 AM Tue 52 53 N 4 5 3808 3808 1764 White 16
11 AM Tue 55 57 ESE 6 9 4661 4661 2617 White 20
12 Noon Tue 57 59 ESE 6 9 5084 5084 3040 White 22
1 PM Tue 58 61 ESE 6 9 5500 5500 3456 White 24
2 PM Tue 58 60 SSE 9 11 5292 5292 3248 White 23
3 PM Tue 59 61 SSE 9 11 5500 5500 3456 White 24
4 PM Tue 59 60 SSE 9 11 5292 5292 3248 White 23
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 10 13 4873 4873 2829 White 21
6 PM Tue 56 56 S 10 13 4448 4448 2404 White 19
7 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 13 3808 3808 1764 White 16
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 8 10 3379 3379 1335 White 14
9 PM Tue 49 49 SW 8 10 2950 2950 906 White 12
10 PM Tue 48 48 SW 8 10 2735 2735 691 White 11
11 PM Tue 47 47 WSW 6 9 2520 2520 476 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 WSW 6 9 2302 2302 258 White 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 6 9 2302 2302 258 White 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 5 8 2084 2084 40 White 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 WSW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 5 8 1771 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 8 1866 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 5 8 2302 2302 258 White 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 S 5 8 3165 3165 1121 White 13
11 AM Wed 51 52 S 8 10 3593 3593 1549 White 15
12 Noon Wed 52 53 S 8 10 3808 3808 1764 White 16
1 PM Wed 53 55 S 8 10 4235 4235 2191 White 18
2 PM Wed 53 54 S 9 11 4021 4021 1977 White 17
3 PM Wed 53 54 S 9 11 4021 4021 1977 White 17
4 PM Wed 53 54 S 9 11 4021 4021 1977 White 17
5 PM Wed 52 52 S 9 11 3593 3593 1549 White 15
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 9 11 3379 3379 1335 White 14
7 PM Wed 50 50 S 9 11 3165 3165 1121 White 13
8 PM Wed 49 49 SSW 9 11 2950 2950 906 White 12
9 PM Wed 48 48 SSW 9 11 2735 2735 691 White 11
10 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 9 11 2520 2520 476 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]