Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 9 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 SW 9 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 9 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 S 10 1787 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 9 2225 2225 181 White 0
12 Noon Fri 48 48 S 9 2664 2558 514 White 4
1 PM Fri 48 48 S 9 2664 2558 514 White 4
2 PM Fri 48 48 SW 13 2664 2558 514 White 4
3 PM Fri 49 49 SW 13 2882 2737 693 White 5
4 PM Fri 49 49 SW 13 2882 2737 693 White 5
5 PM Fri 48 48 S 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
6 PM Fri 47 47 S 10 2445 2388 344 White 3
7 PM Fri 46 46 S 10 2225 2225 181 White 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 S 7 2006 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 S 7 2006 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 S 7 1787 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 5 1787 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 5 1787 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 1787 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 N 5 1787 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 N 5 2006 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 47 47 S 1 2445 2388 344 White 3
12 Noon Sat 49 50 S 1 3102 2976 932 White 6
1 PM Sat 49 50 S 1 3102 2976 932 White 6
2 PM Sat 49 50 E 2 3102 2976 932 White 6
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 2 3102 2976 932 White 6
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 2 3102 2976 932 White 6
5 PM Sat 49 49 SW 2 2882 2737 693 White 5
6 PM Sat 47 47 SW 2 2445 2388 344 White 3
7 PM Sat 45 45 SW 2 2006 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 SW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 1787 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 46 46 S 9 2225 2225 181 White 0
12 Noon Sun 49 49 S 9 2882 2737 693 White 5
1 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 2882 2737 693 White 5
2 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 2882 2737 693 White 5
3 PM Sun 50 50 S 10 3102 2976 932 White 6
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 10 3102 2976 932 White 6
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 8 3102 2976 932 White 6
6 PM Sun 49 49 S 8 2882 2737 693 White 5
7 PM Sun 47 47 S 8 2445 2388 344 White 3
8 PM Sun 47 47 S 8 2445 2388 344 White 3
9 PM Sun 46 46 S 8 2225 2225 181 White 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 S 8 2225 2225 181 White 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 SW 6 2225 2225 181 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 6 2225 2225 181 White 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 2006 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 2006 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 2006 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 2006 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 2006 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 S 8 2225 2225 181 White 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 S 8 2225 2225 181 White 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 2006 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 2445 2388 344 White 3
10 AM Mon 48 48 S 8 2664 2558 514 White 4
11 AM Mon 50 50 S 10 3102 2976 932 White 6
12 Noon Mon 53 53 S 10 3756 3262 1218 White 9
1 PM Mon 53 53 S 10 3756 3262 1218 White 9
2 PM Mon 53 53 S 10 3756 3262 1218 White 9
3 PM Mon 54 54 S 10 3973 3455 1411 White 10
4 PM Mon 54 54 S 10 3973 3455 1411 White 10
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 12 3756 3262 1218 White 9
6 PM Mon 52 52 S 12 3539 3172 1128 White 8
7 PM Mon 51 51 S 12 3321 3082 1038 White 7
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 12 3102 2976 932 White 6
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 12 3102 2976 932 White 6
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 12 2882 2737 693 White 5
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 10 2882 2737 693 White 5
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 10 2882 2737 693 White 5
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 10 2882 2737 693 White 5
2 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
5 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
7 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 2664 2558 514 White 4
9 AM Tue 49 49 SW 10 2882 2737 693 White 5
10 AM Tue 50 50 SW 10 3102 2976 932 White 6
11 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 3539 3172 1128 White 8
12 Noon Tue 53 53 SW 9 3756 3262 1218 White 9
1 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 3973 3455 1411 White 10
2 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 3973 3455 1411 White 10
3 PM Tue 53 53 SW 9 3756 3262 1218 White 9
4 PM Tue 53 53 SW 9 3756 3262 1218 White 9
5 PM Tue 52 52 SW 9 3539 3172 1128 White 8
6 PM Tue 50 50 SW 9 3102 2976 932 White 6
7 PM Tue 47 47 SW 9 2445 2388 344 White 3
8 PM Tue 46 46 SW 9 2225 2225 181 White 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 SW 9 2225 2225 181 White 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 SW 9 2006 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 W 6 1787 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 2006 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 E 6 2664 2558 514 White 4
12 Noon Wed 50 51 E 6 3321 3082 1038 White 7
1 PM Wed 51 52 E 6 3539 3172 1128 White 8
2 PM Wed 51 52 E 6 3539 3172 1128 White 8
3 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 3321 3082 1038 White 7
4 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 3321 3082 1038 White 7
5 PM Wed 50 50 N 3 3102 2976 932 White 6
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 3 2664 2558 514 White 4
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 3 2006 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 N 3 1787 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 N 3 1787 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com