Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 W 0 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 W 0 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 56 W 0 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 57 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 59 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 60 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 61 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 60 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 64 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 65 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 66 NE 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 65 NE 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 65 NE 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 N 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 70 NE 3 7487 4886 2842 White 3
1 PM Wed 69 73 NE 3 8122 8122 6078 White 6
2 PM Wed 71 74 NE 3 8332 8332 6288 White 7
3 PM Wed 70 73 NE 3 8122 8122 6078 White 6
4 PM Wed 70 72 NE 3 7910 7910 5866 White 5
5 PM Wed 72 73 N 5 8122 8122 6078 White 6
6 PM Wed 70 70 N 5 7487 4886 2842 White 3
7 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 NW 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 70 S 7 7487 4886 2842 White 3
12 Noon Thu 71 74 S 7 8332 8332 6288 White 7
1 PM Thu 73 77 S 7 8953 8953 6909 White 10
2 PM Thu 74 77 S 7 8953 8953 6909 White 10
3 PM Thu 74 77 S 7 8953 8953 6909 White 10
4 PM Thu 74 76 S 7 8748 8748 6704 White 9
5 PM Thu 76 77 SW 6 8953 8953 6909 White 10
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 6 8122 8122 6078 White 6
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 59 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 61 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 62 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 63 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 64 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 64 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 64 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 54 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 57 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 62 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 60 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 60 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 60 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com