Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 2641 2388 344 White 2
5 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 2641 2388 344 White 2
6 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 2641 2388 344 White 2
7 AM Sat 31 31 NW 6 2641 2388 344 White 2
8 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 2858 2388 344 White 3
9 AM Sat 33 33 NW 6 3075 2992 948 White 4
10 AM Sat 35 35 S 3 3509 3382 1338 White 6
11 AM Sat 36 36 S 3 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 35 35 S 3 3509 3382 1338 White 6
1 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 34 34 S 5 3292 3273 1229 White 5
5 PM Sat 33 33 S 5 3075 2992 948 White 4
6 PM Sat 32 32 S 5 2858 2388 344 White 3
7 PM Sat 32 32 N 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
8 PM Sat 32 32 N 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 PM Sat 31 31 N 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
11 PM Sat 32 32 N 5 2858 2388 344 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 N 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
1 AM Sun 30 30 N 5 2424 2388 344 White 1
2 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
3 AM Sun 30 30 N 5 2424 2388 344 White 1
4 AM Sun 30 30 NE 6 2424 2388 344 White 1
5 AM Sun 30 30 NE 6 2424 2388 344 White 1
6 AM Sun 31 31 NE 6 2641 2388 344 White 2
7 AM Sun 31 31 NE 6 2641 2388 344 White 2
8 AM Sun 31 31 NE 6 2641 2388 344 White 2
9 AM Sun 32 32 NE 6 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 AM Sun 35 35 E 8 3509 3382 1338 White 6
11 AM Sun 35 36 E 8 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 35 36 E 8 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 36 37 N 7 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 36 36 N 7 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 33 33 NW 7 3075 2992 948 White 4
5 PM Sun 31 31 NW 7 2641 2388 344 White 2
6 PM Sun 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
7 PM Sun 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
8 PM Sun 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
9 PM Sun 29 29 NW 7 2207 2207 163 White 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 8 2207 2207 163 White 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 NW 8 2207 2207 163 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 26 26 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 27 27 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 NW 5 2207 2207 163 White 0
10 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 2858 2388 344 White 3
11 AM Mon 33 34 SE 6 3292 3273 1229 White 5
12 Noon Mon 32 33 SE 6 3075 2992 948 White 4
1 PM Mon 34 35 SE 6 3509 3382 1338 White 6
2 PM Mon 34 35 SE 6 3509 3382 1338 White 6
3 PM Mon 35 35 SE 6 3509 3382 1338 White 6
4 PM Mon 32 32 NW 7 2858 2388 344 White 3
5 PM Mon 31 31 NW 7 2641 2388 344 White 2
6 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
7 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
8 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
9 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 2424 2388 344 White 1
10 PM Mon 29 29 NW 8 2207 2207 163 White 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 NW 8 2424 2388 344 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 NW 8 2207 2207 163 White 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 NW 8 2207 2207 163 White 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 NW 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 NW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 NW 6 2207 2207 163 White 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 NW 6 2207 2207 163 White 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 NW 6 2207 2207 163 White 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 NW 6 2207 2207 163 White 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 NW 6 2641 2388 344 White 2
10 AM Tue 35 35 SW 7 3509 3382 1338 White 6
11 AM Tue 36 36 SW 7 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 35 35 SW 7 3509 3382 1338 White 6
1 PM Tue 36 36 SW 7 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 37 37 SW 7 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 38 38 SW 7 4060 3563 1519 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 35 35 SW 3 3509 3382 1338 White 6
5 PM Tue 34 34 SW 3 3292 3273 1229 White 5
6 PM Tue 33 33 SW 3 3075 2992 948 White 4
7 PM Tue 33 33 SW 3 3075 2992 948 White 4
8 PM Tue 33 33 SW 3 3075 2992 948 White 4
9 PM Tue 32 32 SW 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 PM Tue 32 32 W 5 2858 2388 344 White 3
11 PM Tue 32 32 W 5 2858 2388 344 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 W 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
1 AM Wed 31 31 W 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
2 AM Wed 31 31 W 5 2641 2388 344 White 2
3 AM Wed 30 30 W 5 2424 2388 344 White 1
4 AM Wed 30 30 SW 3 2424 2388 344 White 1
5 AM Wed 30 30 SW 3 2424 2388 344 White 1
6 AM Wed 31 31 SW 3 2641 2388 344 White 2
7 AM Wed 31 31 SW 3 2641 2388 344 White 2
8 AM Wed 31 31 SW 3 2641 2388 344 White 2
9 AM Wed 32 32 SW 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 3509 3382 1338 White 6
11 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 36 36 N 6 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 37 37 N 6 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 37 37 N 6 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 38 38 N 6 4060 3563 1519 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 35 35 N 9 3509 3382 1338 White 6
5 PM Wed 33 33 N 9 3075 2992 948 White 4
6 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 2858 2388 344 White 3
7 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 2858 2388 344 White 3
8 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 2858 2388 344 White 3
9 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 PM Wed 31 31 N 9 2641 2388 344 White 2
11 PM Wed 31 31 N 9 2641 2388 344 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
1 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
2 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
3 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
4 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 2207 2207 163 White 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
6 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
7 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
8 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 2424 2388 344 White 1
9 AM Thu 32 32 N 9 2858 2388 344 White 3
10 AM Thu 35 35 NE 6 3509 3382 1338 White 6
11 AM Thu 36 37 NE 6 3806 3508 1464 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 35 36 NE 6 3627 3453 1409 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 37 38 NE 6 4060 3563 1519 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 37 38 NE 6 4060 3563 1519 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 38 38 NE 6 4060 3563 1519 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 33 33 N 3 3075 2992 948 White 4
5 PM Thu 32 32 N 3 2858 2388 344 White 3
6 PM Thu 30 30 N 3 2424 2388 344 White 1
7 PM Thu 30 30 N 3 2424 2388 344 White 1
8 PM Thu 30 30 N 3 2424 2388 344 White 1
9 PM Thu 29 29 N 3 2207 2207 163 White 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 W 5 2207 2207 163 White 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 W 5 2207 2207 163 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com