Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 59 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 S 6 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 62 64 S 6 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 62 64 SE 5 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 64 66 SE 5 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 64 65 SE 5 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 64 65 NE 7 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 64 64 NE 7 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 63 63 NE 7 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 2455 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 S 5 2455 2388 344 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 60 62 S 5 2577 2388 344 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 61 63 S 5 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 62 65 E 6 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 64 66 E 6 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 64 66 E 6 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 64 65 E 2 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 64 64 E 2 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 62 62 E 2 2577 2388 344 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 60 60 E 2 2455 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 58 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 63 NE 8 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 62 67 NE 8 2883 2698 654 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 64 69 NE 8 3006 2820 776 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 65 71 NE 8 3128 2942 898 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 68 73 NE 8 3251 3065 1021 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 68 72 NE 8 3190 3004 960 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 68 70 N 6 3067 2881 837 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 68 69 N 6 3006 2820 776 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 6 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 6 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 64 N 7 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 64 68 N 7 2944 2759 715 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 69 74 N 7 3313 3126 1082 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 71 77 N 7 4207 3310 1266 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 72 78 N 7 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 77 82 N 7 6835 4666 2622 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 76 80 N 7 5371 4169 2125 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 76 78 N 5 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 77 78 N 5 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 74 74 N 5 3313 3126 1082 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 71 71 N 5 3128 2942 898 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 2944 2759 715 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NW 5 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 2577 2388 344 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 59 59 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 6 2577 2388 344 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 65 67 N 6 2883 2698 654 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 71 N 6 3128 2942 898 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 72 76 N 6 3673 3249 1205 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 73 77 N 6 4207 3310 1266 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 74 78 N 6 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 78 82 N 6 6835 4666 2622 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 78 81 N 6 6423 4455 2411 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 77 78 N 5 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 78 78 N 5 4472 3371 1327 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 75 75 N 5 3374 3187 1143 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 72 72 N 5 3190 3004 960 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 70 70 N 5 3067 2881 837 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 67 67 N 5 2883 2698 654 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 66 66 N 3 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 N 3 2761 2576 532 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 2699 2515 471 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 3 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 5 2455 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 62 63 N 5 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 65 67 N 5 2883 2698 654 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 67 70 N 6 3067 2881 837 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 69 73 N 6 3251 3065 1021 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 70 74 N 6 3313 3126 1082 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 71 75 N 6 3374 3187 1143 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 73 76 N 6 3673 3249 1205 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 73 75 N 6 3374 3187 1143 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 73 74 N 5 3313 3126 1082 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 73 73 N 5 3251 3065 1021 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 71 71 N 5 3128 2942 898 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 68 68 N 5 2944 2759 715 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 66 66 N 5 2822 2637 593 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 63 63 N 5 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 2638 2454 410 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 3 2577 2388 344 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 2516 2388 344 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 3 2455 2388 344 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com