Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

17 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 4 10 2959 2792 748 Blue 23
1 AM Sat 52 52 NW 4 9 2592 2499 455 Blue 17
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 4 9 2472 2431 387 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 4 9 2459 2418 374 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 46 46 NW 4 8 2459 2418 374 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 4 8 2459 2418 374 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 6 2486 2445 401 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 52 52 NW 2 4 2592 2499 455 Blue 17
8 AM Sat 54 54 NW 1 2 2713 2559 515 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 59 60 WSW 2 2 3065 2906 862 Blue 25
10 AM Sat 64 67 S 2 3 5962 3838 1794 Blue 32
11 AM Sat 70 74 E 3 4 11708 8841 6797 Blue 39
12 Noon Sat 72 77 ESE 4 4 12943 11570 9526 Blue 42
1 PM Sat 74 80 ESE 4 4 14281 12795 10751 Blue 45
2 PM Sat 76 81 ESE 4 5 14602 13211 11167 Blue 46
3 PM Sat 76 80 E 4 4 14281 12795 10751 Blue 45
4 PM Sat 76 79 E 4 4 13840 12394 10350 Blue 44
5 PM Sat 75 77 E 3 4 12943 11570 9526 Blue 42
6 PM Sat 74 74 SSE 3 5 11708 8841 6797 Blue 39
7 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 3 6 10958 7962 5918 Blue 38
8 PM Sat 72 72 NW 3 7 9919 7302 5258 Blue 37
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 3 8 8089 5865 3821 Blue 35
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 4 8 7421 4852 2808 Blue 34
11 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 4 8 6714 4123 2079 Blue 33
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 WNW 4 8 3306 3009 965 Blue 27
1 AM Sun 56 56 WNW 4 8 2856 2632 588 Blue 21
2 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 3 8 2499 2458 414 Blue 14
3 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 3 7 2499 2458 414 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 3 7 2486 2445 401 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 3 7 2486 2445 401 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 52 52 WNW 2 5 2592 2499 455 Blue 17
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 1 2 2856 2632 588 Blue 21
8 AM Sun 60 60 NW 0 0 3065 2906 862 Blue 25
9 AM Sun 63 64 WSW 1 1 3854 3181 1137 Blue 29
10 AM Sun 67 70 S 2 3 8089 5865 3821 Blue 35
11 AM Sun 70 74 ESE 3 4 11708 8841 6797 Blue 39
12 Noon Sun 72 77 ESE 4 4 12943 11570 9526 Blue 42
1 PM Sun 73 78 ESE 4 5 13389 11986 9942 Blue 43
2 PM Sun 75 79 E 4 5 13840 12394 10350 Blue 44
3 PM Sun 74 78 E 4 4 13389 11986 9942 Blue 43
4 PM Sun 73 75 ENE 4 4 12128 9704 7660 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 72 73 ENE 3 4 10958 7962 5918 Blue 38
6 PM Sun 70 70 SE 2 2 8089 5865 3821 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 1 2 5962 3838 1794 Blue 32
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 0 0 4142 3302 1258 Blue 30
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 1 2 3565 3061 1017 Blue 28
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 2 4 3306 3009 965 Blue 27
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 6 3186 2958 914 Blue 26
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 2 6 2856 2632 588 Blue 21
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 2 5 2592 2499 455 Blue 17
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 2 5 2472 2431 387 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 2 5 2459 2418 374 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 46 46 W 2 5 2459 2418 374 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5 2445 2414 370 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 2 4 2499 2458 414 Blue 14
7 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 2 3 2633 2526 482 Blue 18
8 AM Mon 57 57 S 2 2 2908 2712 668 Blue 22
9 AM Mon 60 61 SSE 3 3 3186 2958 914 Blue 26
10 AM Mon 63 65 SSE 4 4 4142 3302 1258 Blue 30
11 AM Mon 65 68 SE 4 5 6714 4123 2079 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 67 71 SSE 4 5 9049 6605 4561 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 68 72 SSE 4 4 9919 7302 5258 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 70 73 SSE 3 4 10958 7962 5918 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 68 70 SSW 3 4 8089 5865 3821 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 67 68 WSW 3 3 6714 4123 2079 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 3 3 5153 3551 1507 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 2 3 3854 3181 1137 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 63 63 WNW 2 3 3565 3061 1017 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 1 2 3306 3009 965 Blue 27
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 1 3 3186 2958 914 Blue 26
10 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 2 4 3065 2906 862 Blue 25
11 PM Mon 59 59 SSW 2 4 3011 2855 811 Blue 24

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com