Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 42 42 SW 17 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 17 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 42 42 SW 17 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 14 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 14 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 43 43 SW 14 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 44 44 SW 15 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 45 45 SW 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SW 15 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 44 44 S 15 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 43 43 S 15 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 42 42 S 22 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 40 40 S 22 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 S 22 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 42 S 8 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 42 42 S 8 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 42 42 S 8 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 41 41 S 8 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 W 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 S 13 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 43 43 S 13 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 45 45 S 13 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 13 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 45 45 S 13 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 44 44 S 13 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 43 43 S 12 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 42 42 S 12 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 42 42 S 12 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 41 41 S 12 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 S 12 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 12 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 10 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 10 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 2392 2388 344 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 43 43 S 8 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 46 46 S 10 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 44 44 S 16 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 44 44 S 16 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 S 16 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 44 44 S 16 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 45 45 S 16 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 45 45 S 16 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 45 45 S 15 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 46 46 S 15 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 48 48 S 15 3661 3337 1293 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 48 48 S 15 3661 3337 1293 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 50 50 S 15 3779 3598 1554 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 50 50 S 15 3779 3598 1554 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 49 49 S 15 3720 3539 1495 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 49 49 S 15 3720 3539 1495 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 13 3661 3337 1293 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 47 47 SW 13 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 9 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 48 48 S 10 3661 3337 1293 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 49 49 S 10 3720 3539 1495 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 10 3720 3539 1495 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 48 48 S 10 3661 3337 1293 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 47 47 S 10 3602 3111 1067 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 46 46 S 10 3542 2883 839 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 45 45 S 10 3349 2655 611 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 43 43 S 10 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 3121 2388 344 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 13 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 43 43 S 13 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 S 13 2892 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 42 42 S 13 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 42 42 S 13 2662 2388 344 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 43 43 S 13 2892 2388 344 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com