Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 38 38 W 1 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 1 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 1 2917 2635 591 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 2 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 1 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 40 40 W 0 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 49 49 S 3 4296 3814 1770 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 50 50 S 2 4473 3959 1915 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 50 50 S 2 4473 3959 1915 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 50 50 NE 1 4473 3959 1915 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 47 47 N 3 3970 3523 1479 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 45 45 NW 2 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 42 42 N 2 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 42 42 N 3 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 41 41 N 2 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 42 42 NW 1 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 5 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 5 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 38 38 W 7 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 39 39 W 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 40 40 W 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 42 42 SW 7 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 45 45 SW 7 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 48 49 SW 7 4296 3814 1770 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 4296 3814 1770 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 4296 3814 1770 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 48 48 SW 9 4118 3669 1625 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 46 46 SW 8 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 44 44 SW 8 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 42 42 SW 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 41 41 SW 8 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 41 41 SW 8 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 40 40 SW 8 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 40 40 SW 10 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 40 40 SW 10 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 SW 10 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 40 40 SW 6 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 40 40 SW 6 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 40 40 SW 6 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 38 38 SW 7 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 38 38 SW 9 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 38 38 SW 9 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 39 39 SW 9 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 41 41 SW 6 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 46 46 SW 6 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 4118 3669 1625 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 4118 3669 1625 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 47 47 SW 8 3970 3523 1479 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 45 45 SW 7 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 44 44 SW 7 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 43 43 SW 7 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 43 43 SW 8 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 41 41 SW 8 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 SW 8 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 39 39 SW 10 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 10 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 41 41 SW 10 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 42 42 SW 13 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 44 44 SW 13 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 45 45 SW 13 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 46 46 SW 14 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 46 46 SW 14 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 46 46 SW 14 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 45 45 SW 15 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 45 45 SW 15 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 44 44 SW 15 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
2 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
3 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
4 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
5 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 9 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
7 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
8 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 43 43 S 8 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 44 44 S 9 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 45 45 S 9 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 46 46 S 9 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 46 46 S 9 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 46 46 S 9 3824 3435 1391 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 45 45 S 9 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 45 45 SW 8 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 45 45 SW 8 3678 3349 1305 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 44 44 SW 8 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 44 44 SW 8 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 44 44 SW 8 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 43 43 SW 8 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 43 43 SW 8 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 43 43 SW 8 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SW 8 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 42 42 SW 7 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 42 42 SW 7 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 41 41 SW 7 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 40 40 SW 8 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 8 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 7 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 40 40 SW 7 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 41 41 SW 7 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 42 42 SW 7 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 43 43 SW 7 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 44 44 SW 7 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 44 44 SW 7 3532 3263 1219 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 43 43 SW 7 3440 3177 1133 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 42 42 SW 6 3354 3091 1047 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 6 3267 3006 962 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 40 40 SW 6 3181 2913 869 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 39 39 SW 6 3095 2820 776 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 38 38 SW 6 3009 2728 684 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 37 37 SW 6 2917 2635 591 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com