Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 2416 2399 355 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 61 62 S 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 63 67 SE 5 2777 2594 550 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 64 68 SE 5 2838 2654 610 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 66 71 SE 5 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 68 73 E 6 3064 2934 890 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 68 72 E 6 3022 2891 847 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 69 72 E 6 3022 2891 847 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 69 71 E 6 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 68 69 E 6 2893 2715 671 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 66 66 E 6 2716 2534 490 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 64 64 SE 1 2595 2468 424 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 60 60 SE 1 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 58 58 SE 1 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 56 56 S 1 2399 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 S 1 2399 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 54 54 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 S 5 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 61 63 S 5 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 63 66 S 5 2716 2534 490 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 65 69 SE 6 2893 2715 671 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 66 71 SE 6 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 68 73 SE 6 3064 2934 890 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 70 75 E 6 3196 3020 976 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 70 74 E 6 3107 2977 933 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 71 74 E 6 3107 2977 933 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 71 72 E 3 3022 2891 847 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 70 71 E 3 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 68 68 E 3 2838 2654 610 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 65 65 E 3 2656 2498 454 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 61 61 E 3 2468 2410 366 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 59 59 E 3 2416 2399 355 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 2 2405 2388 344 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SW 2 2405 2388 344 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 55 55 SW 2 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 2 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 SE 2 2405 2388 344 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 60 61 SE 2 2468 2410 366 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 62 63 SE 2 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 63 67 SE 6 2777 2594 550 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 64 69 SE 6 2893 2715 671 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 66 71 SE 6 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 67 72 SE 6 3022 2891 847 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 68 72 SE 6 3022 2891 847 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 68 71 SE 6 2979 2835 791 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 68 70 NE 3 2936 2775 731 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 67 68 NE 3 2838 2654 610 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 65 65 NE 3 2656 2498 454 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 63 63 NE 3 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 NE 3 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 58 58 NE 3 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 56 56 SW 2 2399 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SW 2 2399 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 2 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 58 58 SW 5 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 59 60 SW 5 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 59 61 SE 3 2468 2410 366 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 60 62 SE 3 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 61 63 SE 3 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 62 64 SE 3 2595 2468 424 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 62 64 SE 3 2595 2468 424 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 63 64 SE 3 2595 2468 424 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 63 65 NE 5 2656 2498 454 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 61 62 NE 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 55 55 NE 5 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 SE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 SE 2 2405 2388 344 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 57 59 SE 5 2416 2399 355 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SE 5 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 59 62 SE 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 60 62 SE 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 60 62 SE 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 60 62 SE 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 61 62 E 3 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 59 60 E 3 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 58 58 E 3 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 56 56 E 3 2399 2388 344 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 55 SW 1 2394 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 56 58 E 5 2411 2394 350 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 58 61 E 5 2468 2410 366 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 59 62 E 5 2498 2416 372 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 60 63 E 5 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 61 63 E 5 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 61 63 E 5 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 62 63 E 2 2536 2438 394 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 60 60 E 2 2438 2405 361 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 59 59 E 2 2416 2399 355 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 57 57 E 2 2405 2388 344 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 54 54 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com