Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 W 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 48 49 N 9 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 50 51 N 9 2562 2473 429 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 54 54 N 8 2841 2561 517 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 56 56 N 8 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 56 56 NE 8 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 57 57 NE 8 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 58 58 NE 8 3688 3044 1000 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 57 57 E 6 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 55 55 E 6 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 52 52 E 6 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 50 50 SW 3 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 48 48 SW 3 2473 2424 380 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 47 47 SW 3 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 7 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 7 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 44 44 SW 7 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 5 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 5 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 5 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 46 47 E 3 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 48 50 E 3 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 49 52 E 6 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 50 53 E 6 2716 2531 487 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 52 55 E 6 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 51 54 E 7 2841 2561 517 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 52 55 E 7 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 52 54 E 7 2841 2561 517 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 51 51 SE 5 2562 2473 429 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 50 50 SE 5 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 48 48 SE 5 2473 2424 380 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 46 46 SE 5 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 2 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 2 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 2 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 2 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 S 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 2 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 44 S 2 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 45 46 S 2 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 46 47 S 3 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 47 49 S 3 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 48 50 S 3 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 48 50 S 3 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 49 50 S 3 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 48 49 S 3 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 48 49 W 5 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 5 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 45 45 W 5 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 5 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 42 42 W 5 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 5 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 W 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 NW 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 46 NW 5 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 47 49 NW 5 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 49 52 N 9 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 51 55 N 9 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 53 57 N 9 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 52 56 N 9 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 54 57 N 9 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 54 56 N 9 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 53 54 N 6 2841 2561 517 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 2562 2473 429 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 41 41 NW 5 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NW 3 2391 2388 344 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NW 3 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 48 49 NW 3 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 50 51 NW 3 2562 2473 429 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 51 53 NE 7 2716 2531 487 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 53 55 NE 7 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 55 58 NE 7 3688 3044 1000 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 54 56 NE 7 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 56 58 NE 7 3688 3044 1000 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 56 57 NE 7 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 55 56 N 8 3264 2713 669 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 8 2716 2531 487 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 8 2562 2473 429 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 2503 2435 391 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 2473 2424 380 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 8 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 46 46 NW 9 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NW 9 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 9 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 45 45 NW 9 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 9 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 43 43 NW 9 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 2399 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 2407 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 49 50 NW 7 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 51 52 NW 7 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 53 55 NE 7 3053 2636 592 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 54 57 NE 7 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 56 59 NE 7 4741 3254 1210 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 55 58 NE 7 3688 3044 1000 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 57 59 NE 7 4741 3254 1210 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 56 57 NE 7 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 56 57 N 6 3475 2834 790 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 2841 2561 517 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 6 2638 2502 458 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 2532 2446 402 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 2473 2424 380 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 2473 2424 380 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 47 47 NW 5 2446 2414 370 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NW 5 2435 2407 363 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 2424 2399 355 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 2415 2391 347 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 2407 2388 344 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com