Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 2389 2388 344 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 2389 2388 344 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 60 60 NW 0 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 63 64 NW 0 2426 2407 363 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 65 67 NW 0 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 67 71 SE 3 2595 2469 425 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 68 73 SE 3 2713 2543 499 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 72 77 SE 3 3148 2813 769 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 74 79 E 5 3437 3033 989 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 75 79 E 5 3437 3033 989 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 78 81 E 5 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 79 81 E 5 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 76 77 E 5 3148 2813 769 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 73 73 E 5 2713 2543 499 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 69 69 NW 2 2493 2447 403 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 65 65 NW 2 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 63 63 NW 2 2417 2403 359 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 63 63 NW 2 2417 2403 359 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NW 2 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 60 60 NW 2 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 5 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 5 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 61 61 N 7 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 65 66 N 7 2448 2417 373 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 67 70 N 7 2544 2458 414 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 70 74 N 12 2817 2594 550 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 71 76 N 12 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 75 81 N 12 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 77 83 N 13 4256 3606 1562 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 79 84 N 13 4543 3784 1740 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 82 86 N 13 5381 4234 2190 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 83 85 N 9 4828 3962 1918 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 79 80 N 9 3616 3143 1099 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 76 76 N 9 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 72 72 NW 7 2646 2491 447 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 67 67 NW 7 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 65 65 NW 7 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 65 65 NW 6 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 6 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 62 62 NW 6 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 59 59 NW 3 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 59 59 NW 3 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 2 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 65 66 N 2 2448 2417 373 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 68 71 N 2 2595 2469 425 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 70 74 E 3 2817 2594 550 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 71 76 E 3 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 75 81 E 3 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 77 83 E 6 4256 3606 1562 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 79 84 E 6 4543 3784 1740 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 82 86 E 6 5381 4234 2190 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 83 85 NE 5 4828 3962 1918 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 79 80 NE 5 3616 3143 1099 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 76 76 NE 5 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 5 2646 2491 447 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 5 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 NW 5 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 3 2403 2389 345 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 59 59 NW 2 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 59 59 NW 2 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 59 59 NW 2 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 61 61 NW 2 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 65 66 NW 2 2448 2417 373 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 67 69 NW 2 2493 2447 403 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 69 71 E 7 2595 2469 425 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 70 73 E 7 2713 2543 499 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 73 76 E 7 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 75 78 E 7 3259 2923 879 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 76 79 E 7 3437 3033 989 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 79 81 E 7 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 80 81 S 1 3796 3253 1209 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 76 76 S 1 3038 2710 666 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 73 73 S 1 2713 2543 499 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 69 69 S 1 2493 2447 403 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 64 64 S 1 2426 2407 363 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 62 62 S 1 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 61 61 E 1 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 1 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 1 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 1 2389 2388 344 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 60 61 NE 5 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 61 62 N 3 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 62 64 N 3 2426 2407 363 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 64 66 N 3 2448 2417 373 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 65 67 N 3 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 66 67 N 3 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 67 68 N 3 2469 2436 392 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 67 67 N 3 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 65 65 N 3 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 63 63 N 3 2417 2403 359 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 3 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 59 59 N 3 2398 2388 344 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 58 58 N 3 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 3 2389 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 SW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SE 1 2389 2388 344 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 SE 1 2407 2393 349 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 61 62 SE 1 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 63 65 S 5 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 65 68 S 5 2469 2436 392 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 67 70 S 5 2544 2458 414 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 68 71 S 5 2595 2469 425 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 70 72 S 5 2646 2491 447 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 71 73 S 5 2713 2543 499 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 71 72 SE 3 2646 2491 447 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 67 67 SE 3 2459 2426 382 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 65 65 SE 3 2437 2412 368 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 62 62 SE 3 2412 2398 354 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 58 58 SE 3 2393 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 56 56 SE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com