Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 57 58 N 5 2700 2526 482 Blue 17
9 AM Thu 59 61 N 5 2875 2696 652 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 62 65 N 5 3476 2929 885 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 64 69 NE 7 3886 3573 1529 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 66 72 NE 7 4610 3879 1835 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 68 74 NE 7 7548 4249 2205 Blue 33
2 PM Thu 70 76 E 5 7750 5764 3720 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 71 76 E 5 7750 5764 3720 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 71 74 E 5 7548 4249 2205 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 74 76 NE 5 7750 5764 3720 Blue 35
6 PM Thu 71 72 NE 5 4610 3879 1835 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 69 69 NE 5 3886 3573 1529 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 9 3476 2929 885 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 9 2931 2762 718 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 61 61 NW 9 2875 2696 652 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 60 60 N 10 2820 2606 562 Blue 19
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 10 2764 2561 517 Blue 18
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 10 2608 2510 466 Blue 16
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 5 2562 2494 450 Blue 15
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 5 2527 2477 433 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 5 2510 2467 423 Blue 13
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 1 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
6 AM Fri 52 52 SW 1 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 53 53 SW 1 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 2510 2467 423 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 56 57 S 5 2608 2510 466 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 57 59 S 5 2764 2561 517 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 58 60 S 9 2820 2606 562 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 60 63 S 9 3228 2818 774 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 60 63 S 9 3228 2818 774 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 61 64 S 14 3374 2873 829 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 62 64 S 14 3374 2873 829 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 62 64 S 14 3374 2873 829 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 63 63 S 14 3228 2818 774 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 61 61 S 14 2875 2696 652 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 59 59 S 14 2764 2561 517 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 55 55 SW 7 2527 2477 433 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 7 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 7 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 3 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 3 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 48 48 E 0 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 0 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 0 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 1 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 45 45 SW 1 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 1 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 47 47 S 1 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 1 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 49 49 S 1 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 51 51 S 3 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 51 51 S 3 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 52 52 SE 3 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 52 52 SE 3 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 52 52 SE 3 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 53 53 NE 8 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 8 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 1 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 47 47 NE 1 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 1 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 46 46 SW 3 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 3 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 45 45 SW 3 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 43 43 S 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 44 44 SW 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 47 47 S 5 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 48 48 S 5 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 49 49 S 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 51 51 S 5 2468 2443 399 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 47 47 S 5 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 46 46 S 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 5 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 42 42 SW 6 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 41 41 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SW 6 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 6 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 44 44 SW 6 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 46 46 S 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 47 47 S 5 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 48 48 S 5 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 49 49 S 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 49 49 S 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 49 49 S 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 3 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 49 49 W 3 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 3 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 3 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 3 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 45 45 W 3 2419 2395 351 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 W 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 3 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 42 42 W 3 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 42 42 SW 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 46 46 SW 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 47 48 SW 5 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 49 50 S 5 2460 2435 391 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 50 52 S 5 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 51 53 S 5 2494 2459 415 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 53 55 S 5 2527 2477 433 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 53 54 S 5 2510 2467 423 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 53 54 S 5 2510 2467 423 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 55 56 NW 5 2562 2494 450 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 5 2510 2467 423 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 52 52 NW 5 2477 2451 407 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 5 2451 2427 383 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 5 2443 2419 375 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 47 47 NW 5 2435 2411 367 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 46 46 W 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 5 2427 2403 359 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 44 44 W 5 2411 2388 344 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 2403 2388 344 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com