Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 N 6 9 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 9 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 8 2644 2533 489 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 5 8 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 5 8 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 4 5 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 4 5 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 4 5 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 3 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 61 61 NE 2 3 2644 2533 489 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 67 68 NE 2 3 3016 2855 811 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 71 73 E 4 5 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 74 77 E 4 5 7303 4679 2635 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 74 77 E 4 5 7303 4679 2635 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 76 79 E 4 5 8584 6385 4341 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 78 80 E 4 5 8928 7168 5124 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 78 79 E 4 5 8584 6385 4341 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 77 77 NNE 2 3 7303 4679 2635 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 73 73 NNE 2 3 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 68 68 NNE 2 3 3016 2855 811 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 66 66 WNW 2 3 2910 2749 705 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 2 3 2856 2696 652 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 2 3 2803 2643 599 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 63 63 NW 3 4 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NW 3 4 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 62 62 NW 3 4 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 3 5 2644 2533 489 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 3 5 2644 2533 489 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 3 5 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 3 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 3 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 58 58 NW 2 3 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 1 2 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 60 60 ESE 1 2 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 66 67 ESE 1 2 2963 2802 758 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 71 73 ESE 3 4 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 74 77 ESE 3 4 7303 4679 2635 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 75 78 ESE 3 4 8045 5537 3493 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 75 78 E 3 4 8045 5537 3493 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 77 79 E 3 4 8584 6385 4341 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 78 79 E 3 4 8584 6385 4341 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 77 77 NE 1 2 7303 4679 2635 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 74 74 NE 1 2 4752 3173 1129 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 69 69 NE 1 2 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 2 3 2856 2696 652 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 63 63 WNW 2 3 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 63 63 WNW 2 3 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 62 62 W 2 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 W 2 3 2644 2533 489 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 60 60 W 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 3 4 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 3 4 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 3 4 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 58 58 W 2 3 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 55 55 W 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 58 58 SW 2 3 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 62 63 SW 2 3 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 66 67 SSE 2 3 2963 2802 758 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 68 69 SSE 2 3 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 70 72 SSE 2 3 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 71 73 SSE 4 6 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 73 74 SSE 4 6 4752 3173 1129 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 74 75 SSE 4 6 5647 3367 1323 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 73 73 SSE 3 4 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 70 70 SSE 3 4 3122 2961 917 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 66 66 SSE 3 4 2910 2749 705 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 2 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 1 1 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 1 1 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 1 1 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 55 55 WSW 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 55 55 W 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 54 54 W 2 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 59 60 NNW 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 63 64 E 2 3 2803 2643 599 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 65 67 E 2 3 2963 2802 758 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 67 69 E 2 3 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 68 70 E 4 6 3122 2961 917 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 70 72 E 4 6 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 70 71 E 4 6 3175 3014 970 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 70 70 NE 3 4 3122 2961 917 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 67 67 NE 3 4 2963 2802 758 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 63 63 NE 3 4 2750 2595 551 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 2 3 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 2 3 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 2 3 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NNW 2 3 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 2 3 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 53 53 NW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 2 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 2 3 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 61 62 NNW 2 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 65 66 NE 3 4 2910 2749 705 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 67 69 NE 3 4 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 69 71 NE 3 4 3175 3014 970 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 70 72 ENE 4 6 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 72 73 ENE 4 6 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 72 73 ENE 4 6 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 72 72 NE 3 5 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 69 69 NE 3 5 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 65 65 NE 3 5 2856 2696 652 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 2 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 60 60 NNW 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 60 60 NNW 2 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 59 59 NW 2 2 2565 2472 428 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 2 2 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 58 58 NW 2 2 2534 2441 397 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 2 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 2 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 2 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 56 56 NW 3 3 2473 2388 344 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 3 3 2442 2388 344 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 3 2411 2388 344 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 3 2503 2411 367 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 61 62 NW 2 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 65 67 E 3 3 2963 2802 758 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 67 70 E 3 3 3122 2961 917 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 69 72 E 3 3 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 70 73 E 4 5 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 72 74 E 4 5 4752 3173 1129 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 72 73 E 4 5 3940 3120 1076 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 72 72 ENE 3 4 3388 3067 1023 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 69 69 ENE 3 4 3069 2908 864 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 65 65 ENE 3 4 2856 2696 652 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 62 62 NW 3 3 2697 2564 520 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 3 2596 2503 459 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com