Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 WNW 1 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 1 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 S 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 NNE 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 50 E 4 6 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 52 E 4 6 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 52 55 E 5 8 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 53 56 E 5 8 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 55 58 E 5 8 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 58 61 E 5 8 6186 4314 2270 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 59 61 E 4 6 6186 4314 2270 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 59 59 E 3 4 5054 3548 1504 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 58 58 E 3 4 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 56 56 SSE 1 1 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 54 54 SSW 4 6 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 6 9 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 4 6 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 6 9 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 6 9 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 51 51 SW 6 9 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 13 19 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 SW 13 19 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 13 19 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 14 20 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 14 20 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 14 20 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 SW 13 19 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 SW 13 19 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 SW 13 19 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 52 52 S 13 19 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 54 54 S 13 19 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 54 54 S 13 19 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 55 55 S 13 19 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 57 57 S 13 19 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 58 58 S 13 19 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 18 25 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 56 56 SSW 18 25 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 55 55 SSW 18 25 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 54 54 SSW 16 23 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 53 53 SSW 16 23 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 52 52 SSW 16 23 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 10 14 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 S 10 14 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 52 52 S 10 14 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 12 17 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 12 17 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 12 17 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 18 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 18 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 18 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 11 17 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 S 11 17 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 53 53 S 11 17 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 54 54 S 14 18 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 55 56 S 14 18 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 55 56 S 14 18 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 56 57 SSW 13 19 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 58 59 SSW 13 19 5054 3548 1504 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 13 19 5054 3548 1504 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 10 17 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 10 17 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 55 55 SSW 10 17 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 5 11 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 5 11 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 5 11 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 51 51 S 5 6 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 S 5 6 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 6 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 5 8 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 5 8 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 5 8 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 6 11 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 6 11 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 6 11 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SSW 5 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 5 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 5 9 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 52 52 S 5 8 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 53 53 S 5 8 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 8 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 54 54 S 5 8 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 56 56 S 5 8 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 57 57 S 5 8 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 56 56 SW 4 6 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 55 55 SW 4 6 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 53 53 SW 4 6 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 51 51 SW 3 4 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 50 50 SW 3 4 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 SW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SSW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 SSW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 SSW 3 4 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 52 53 SSE 4 5 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 53 54 SSE 4 5 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 54 56 SSE 4 5 3572 2959 915 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 55 57 SSE 4 6 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 57 58 SSE 4 6 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 58 59 SSE 4 6 5054 3548 1504 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 58 58 ESE 4 5 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 57 57 ESE 4 5 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 55 55 ESE 4 5 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 2 4 2966 2420 376 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 2 4 2785 2388 344 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 2 4 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 50 50 NW 2 2 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NW 2 2 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 2 2424 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 N 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 4 2605 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 54 55 ENE 4 6 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 55 57 ENE 4 6 3962 3138 1094 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 56 58 ENE 4 6 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 57 59 ENE 5 6 5054 3548 1504 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 60 61 ENE 5 6 6186 4314 2270 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 61 62 ENE 5 6 6723 4991 2947 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 4 5 6186 4314 2270 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 60 60 NNE 4 5 5630 3934 1890 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 58 58 NNE 4 5 4347 3317 1273 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 4 3326 2779 735 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 3 4 3146 2600 556 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 4 2966 2420 376 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com