Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 N 14 18 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 13 16 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 52 52 NW 12 14 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 11 13 2720 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 49 49 WNW 10 13 2539 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 48 48 NW 10 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 9 11 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 WNW 9 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 8 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 N 9 12 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 56 58 NNE 6 10 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 60 63 ENE 5 9 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 63 67 E 5 9 10846 10550 8200 White 19
1 PM Thu 66 71 E 4 9 11645 11645 9295 White 23
2 PM Thu 67 71 E 4 9 11645 11645 9295 White 23
3 PM Thu 67 70 E 3 9 11446 11446 9096 White 22
4 PM Thu 67 69 E 4 9 11247 11247 8897 White 21
5 PM Thu 66 67 E 4 9 10846 10550 8200 White 19
6 PM Thu 63 63 E 4 8 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 57 57 ESE 4 6 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 55 55 ESE 4 5 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 56 56 SSE 4 5 4219 3257 907 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 4 5 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 52 52 SSW 4 5 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NNW 3 5 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 4 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 4 5 2539 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 4 5 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 4 5 2720 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 50 50 NNW 4 5 2720 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 49 49 WNW 4 5 2539 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 50 50 S 3 5 2720 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 52 52 S 5 6 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 55 55 S 5 8 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 10 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 59 60 S 8 12 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 62 63 S 8 12 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 65 67 S 8 12 10846 10550 8200 White 19
2 PM Fri 67 67 S 10 17 10846 10550 8200 White 19
3 PM Fri 69 69 S 10 17 11247 11247 8897 White 21
4 PM Fri 69 69 S 10 17 11247 11247 8897 White 21
5 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 12 19 11047 10963 8613 White 20
6 PM Fri 65 65 SSW 12 19 10438 7508 5158 White 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 12 19 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 12 13 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 12 13 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 12 13 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 64 64 SSW 17 21 10235 7001 4651 White 16
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SSW 17 21 10642 9197 6847 White 18
1 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 17 21 10642 9197 6847 White 18
2 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 18 26 10642 9197 6847 White 18
3 AM Sat 64 64 SSW 18 26 10235 7001 4651 White 16
4 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 18 26 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 13 18 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 13 18 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 57 57 W 13 18 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 10 12 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 10 12 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 10 12 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 55 55 S 10 14 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 55 55 S 10 14 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 59 60 S 10 14 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 62 63 S 11 18 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 62 62 S 11 18 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 60 60 S 11 18 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 59 59 S 13 19 6012 4191 1841 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 57 57 S 13 19 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 55 55 S 13 19 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 54 54 S 12 13 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 53 53 S 12 13 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 53 53 S 12 13 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 9 10 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SSW 9 10 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 9 10 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 51 51 SW 8 8 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 50 50 SW 8 8 2720 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 49 49 SW 8 8 2539 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 8 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 8 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 8 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 55 55 SSW 8 9 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 56 56 SSW 8 9 4219 3257 907 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 8 9 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 8 12 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 60 SSW 8 12 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 60 61 SSW 8 12 7087 5383 3033 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 61 62 SW 10 16 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 61 61 SW 10 16 7087 5383 3033 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 59 59 SW 10 16 6012 4191 1841 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 11 18 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 11 18 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 18 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 13 21 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 13 21 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 13 21 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 13 14 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 W 13 14 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 13 14 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 13 16 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 13 16 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 13 16 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 51 51 W 11 14 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 51 51 W 11 14 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 52 52 W 11 14 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 53 53 W 10 13 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 55 56 W 10 13 4219 3257 907 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 58 60 W 10 13 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 60 63 WNW 8 12 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 62 66 WNW 8 12 10642 9197 6847 White 18
1 PM Mon 63 67 WNW 8 12 10846 10550 8200 White 19
2 PM Mon 64 68 W 8 13 11047 10963 8613 White 20
3 PM Mon 64 67 W 8 13 10846 10550 8200 White 19
4 PM Mon 64 66 W 8 13 10642 9197 6847 White 18
5 PM Mon 63 64 W 8 13 10235 7001 4651 White 16
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 8 13 7087 5383 3033 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 13 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 10 11 4219 3257 907 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 10 11 3830 3077 727 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 10 11 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 10 10 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 10 10 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 10 10 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 8 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 8 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 8 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 8 2902 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 52 52 NW 5 8 3083 2536 186 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 53 53 NW 5 8 3264 2716 366 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 8 3444 2897 547 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 56 57 NNW 5 8 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 58 60 NNW 5 8 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 60 62 NE 5 8 7601 5940 3590 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 62 65 NE 5 8 10438 7508 5158 White 17
1 PM Tue 64 67 NE 5 8 10846 10550 8200 White 19
2 PM Tue 65 68 ESE 6 10 11047 10963 8613 White 20
3 PM Tue 66 68 ESE 6 10 11047 10963 8613 White 20
4 PM Tue 66 67 ESE 6 10 10846 10550 8200 White 19
5 PM Tue 65 65 ESE 6 11 10438 7508 5158 White 17
6 PM Tue 63 63 ESE 6 11 9611 6479 4129 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 60 60 ESE 6 11 6558 4784 2434 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 58 58 NNE 8 11 5447 3807 1457 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 57 57 NNE 8 11 4860 3436 1086 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 8 11 4219 3257 907 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com