Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 10 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 10 2403 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 10 2431 2403 53 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 2490 2430 80 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 9 2762 2549 199 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 56 58 N 9 5540 3384 1034 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 60 62 NE 8 9528 6674 4324 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 63 65 NE 8 10137 9343 6993 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 65 67 NE 8 10514 9977 7627 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 67 69 NE 6 11744 10234 7884 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 68 69 NE 6 11744 10234 7884 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 69 70 NE 6 12008 10367 8017 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 68 68 NE 6 11144 10102 7752 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 66 66 NE 6 10271 9853 7503 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 63 63 NE 6 9886 7758 5408 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5540 3384 1034 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 3605 2963 613 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 8 3182 2683 333 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 8 2762 2549 199 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 2684 2520 170 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 14 2606 2490 140 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 2550 2461 111 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 2550 2461 111 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 48 48 W 21 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 21 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 48 48 W 21 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 50 50 W 23 2606 2490 140 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 53 54 W 23 3182 2683 333 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 57 59 W 23 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 61 66 W 23 10271 9853 7503 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 64 70 W 23 12008 10367 8017 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 65 71 W 23 12200 10953 8603 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 66 72 W 23 12391 11549 9199 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 67 72 W 23 12391 11549 9199 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 67 70 W 23 12008 10367 8017 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 65 66 W 24 10271 9853 7503 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 24 9886 7758 5408 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 24 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 22 3605 2963 613 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 22 2969 2605 255 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 22 2684 2520 170 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 21 2550 2461 111 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 21 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 21 2490 2430 80 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 18 2461 2419 69 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 44 44 W 18 2431 2403 53 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 18 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 17 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 17 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 17 2442 2411 61 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 47 47 W 17 2490 2430 80 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 50 51 W 18 2684 2520 170 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 21 3182 2683 333 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 54 57 W 23 4361 3174 824 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 56 60 W 24 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 57 62 W 24 9528 6674 4324 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 57 62 W 25 9528 6674 4324 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 57 61 W 25 8766 5374 3024 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 56 59 NW 25 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 54 55 NW 25 3393 2760 410 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 24 2762 2549 199 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 49 49 NW 22 2550 2461 111 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 46 46 NW 21 2461 2419 69 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 20 2431 2403 53 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 42 42 NW 17 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 40 40 NW 17 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NW 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 NW 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 15 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 42 43 N 16 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 46 48 N 16 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 49 52 NE 16 2762 2549 199 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 51 54 NE 16 3182 2683 333 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 53 57 NE 16 4361 3174 824 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 55 59 NE 15 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 56 60 NE 15 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 57 60 NE 15 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 58 60 NE 14 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 58 59 NE 14 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 14 3605 2963 613 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 53 53 NE 14 2969 2605 255 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 50 50 N 13 2606 2490 140 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 13 2490 2430 80 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 2442 2411 61 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 43 43 N 10 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 10 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 10 2403 2388 38 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 42 43 N 12 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 44 46 N 12 2461 2419 69 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 47 50 N 12 2606 2490 140 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 50 54 NE 16 3182 2683 333 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 52 57 NE 16 4361 3174 824 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 53 58 NE 16 5540 3384 1034 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 54 59 NE 16 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 56 60 NE 16 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 58 61 NE 16 8766 5374 3024 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 58 59 N 15 6860 3594 1244 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 56 56 N 15 3605 2963 613 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 53 53 N 15 2969 2605 255 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 50 50 N 15 2606 2490 140 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 47 47 N 15 2490 2430 80 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 45 45 N 15 2442 2411 61 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 15 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 15 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 15 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 42 42 N 15 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 41 41 N 15 2403 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 15 2396 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 17 2403 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 43 43 N 17 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 47 48 N 17 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 50 53 N 17 2969 2605 255 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 54 58 N 20 5540 3384 1034 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 56 60 N 20 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 58 63 N 20 9886 7758 5408 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 59 63 N 20 9886 7758 5408 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 60 63 N 20 9886 7758 5408 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 60 62 N 20 9528 6674 4324 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 59 60 NW 14 7940 4284 1934 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 58 58 NW 14 5540 3384 1034 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 14 3605 2963 613 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 53 53 NW 14 2969 2605 255 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 51 51 NW 14 2684 2520 170 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 48 48 NW 14 2520 2441 91 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 46 46 NW 12 2461 2419 69 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NW 12 2442 2411 61 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 44 44 NW 12 2431 2403 53 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 12 2420 2396 46 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 42 42 NW 12 2411 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 41 41 NW 12 2403 2388 38 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com