Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 NW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 61 NW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 64 NW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 SW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 67 SW 5 7814 2388 38 White 2
4 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 7814 2388 38 White 2
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 6 7814 2388 38 White 2
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 E 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 69 E 2 8240 7142 4792 White 4
1 PM Tue 69 72 E 2 8868 8868 6518 White 7
2 PM Tue 71 73 E 3 9075 9075 6725 White 8
3 PM Tue 72 74 E 3 9282 9281 6931 White 9
4 PM Tue 73 74 E 3 9282 9281 6931 White 9
5 PM Tue 72 72 SE 5 8868 8868 6518 White 7
6 PM Tue 71 71 SE 5 8661 8661 6311 White 6
7 PM Tue 68 68 SE 5 8027 2388 38 White 3
8 PM Tue 66 66 E 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 E 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 E 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 70 NE 9 8452 8452 6102 White 5
12 Noon Wed 71 75 NE 9 9488 9434 7084 White 10
1 PM Wed 73 77 NE 9 9915 9915 7565 White 12
2 PM Wed 75 79 NE 9 10334 10334 7984 White 14
3 PM Wed 76 79 NE 9 10334 10334 7984 White 14
4 PM Wed 77 79 NE 9 10334 10334 7984 White 14
5 PM Wed 77 77 NE 9 9915 9915 7565 White 12
6 PM Wed 74 74 NE 9 9282 9281 6931 White 9
7 PM Wed 71 71 NE 9 8661 8661 6311 White 6
8 PM Wed 67 67 NE 9 7814 2388 38 White 2
9 PM Wed 65 65 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 68 NE 8 8027 2388 38 White 3
12 Noon Thu 69 73 NE 8 9075 9075 6725 White 8
1 PM Thu 71 75 NE 8 9488 9434 7084 White 10
2 PM Thu 73 77 NE 8 9915 9915 7565 White 12
3 PM Thu 75 78 NE 8 10130 10130 7780 White 13
4 PM Thu 76 78 NE 8 10130 10130 7780 White 13
5 PM Thu 75 75 W 5 9488 9434 7084 White 10
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 9075 9075 6725 White 8
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 8240 7142 4792 White 4
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 67 S 9 7814 2388 38 White 2
12 Noon Fri 68 70 S 9 8452 8452 6102 White 5
1 PM Fri 71 73 S 9 9075 9075 6725 White 8
2 PM Fri 73 75 S 9 9488 9434 7084 White 10
3 PM Fri 75 77 S 9 9915 9915 7565 White 12
4 PM Fri 76 77 S 9 9915 9915 7565 White 12
5 PM Fri 75 75 SW 9 9488 9434 7084 White 10
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 9075 9075 6725 White 8
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 9 8452 8452 6102 White 5
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 7814 2388 38 White 2
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 61 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 66 W 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 69 W 18 8240 7142 4792 White 4
1 PM Sat 68 71 W 18 8661 8661 6311 White 6
2 PM Sat 69 72 W 18 8868 8868 6518 White 7
3 PM Sat 70 72 W 18 8868 8868 6518 White 7
4 PM Sat 70 71 W 18 8661 8661 6311 White 6
5 PM Sat 69 69 NW 16 8240 7142 4792 White 4
6 PM Sat 67 67 NW 16 7814 2388 38 White 2
7 PM Sat 63 63 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 NW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com