Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NNE 2 3 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 5 5 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 58 58 NNE 6 8 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 5 6 2521 2428 78 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 56 56 NNW 5 6 2521 2428 78 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 6 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 6 2398 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 8 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 57 57 ENE 5 6 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 61 61 ENE 5 6 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 66 67 NE 5 6 3048 2887 537 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 70 72 NE 5 6 4461 3153 803 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 74 77 ENE 4 6 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 76 79 ESE 4 8 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 78 81 S 5 8 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 80 82 S 4 8 10647 9080 6730 White 30
4 PM Sun 78 79 S 4 8 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 77 77 S 5 8 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 74 74 SSE 4 8 6214 3627 1277 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 67 67 SSE 4 6 3048 2887 537 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 64 64 S 5 6 2888 2727 377 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 63 63 S 5 5 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 5 6 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 61 61 SW 5 5 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 WSW 4 5 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 5 6 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 5 5 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 57 57 W 4 5 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 4 5 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 5 5 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 4 4 2398 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 4 4 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 5 5 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 5 5 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 66 67 N 4 6 3048 2887 537 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 71 73 NNE 5 6 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 75 78 NNE 5 6 8816 6910 4560 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 77 80 NNE 5 6 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 78 81 SE 5 8 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 79 81 SE 5 8 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 79 80 SE 5 8 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 77 77 SE 5 6 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 73 73 SE 5 6 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 68 68 SE 5 6 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 5 5 2888 2727 377 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 5 5 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 5 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 62 62 WNW 5 6 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 WNW 5 6 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 6 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 57 57 NW 6 6 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 55 55 NW 6 6 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 6 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 6 6 2429 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 6 6 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 55 55 NNW 6 6 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 58 58 NNW 6 8 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 6 8 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 67 68 NNW 6 8 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 71 73 NE 5 8 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 74 77 NE 5 8 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 77 80 NE 5 8 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 78 81 ESE 5 9 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 79 81 ESE 5 9 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 78 79 ESE 5 9 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 76 76 ESE 5 6 7799 5221 2871 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 72 72 ESE 5 6 4461 3153 803 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 68 68 ESE 5 6 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 64 64 S 4 4 2888 2727 377 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 63 63 S 4 4 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 4 4 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 62 62 WNW 5 5 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 WNW 5 5 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 5 5 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 6 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 6 2521 2428 78 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 6 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 8 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 8 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 8 2521 2428 78 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 6 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 62 62 NW 6 6 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 66 67 NW 6 6 3048 2887 537 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 71 73 NE 5 9 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 74 77 NE 5 9 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 77 80 NE 5 9 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 78 81 E 5 8 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 79 81 E 5 8 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 78 79 E 5 8 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 76 76 E 5 8 7799 5221 2871 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 72 72 E 5 8 4461 3153 803 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 68 68 E 5 8 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 5 2888 2727 377 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 63 63 W 5 5 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 5 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 6 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 5 6 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 6 2675 2551 201 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 58 58 NW 8 8 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 8 8 2521 2428 78 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 8 8 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 54 54 NW 6 8 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 6 8 2459 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 6 8 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 58 58 NNW 8 9 2583 2490 140 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 8 9 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 67 68 NNW 8 9 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 71 73 NNE 8 10 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 75 77 NNE 8 10 8468 6102 3752 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 77 80 NNE 8 10 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 78 80 NE 6 10 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 79 81 NE 6 10 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 78 79 NE 6 10 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 76 76 ENE 5 8 7799 5221 2871 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 72 72 ENE 5 8 4461 3153 803 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 5 8 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 6 9 2942 2781 431 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 9 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 9 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 6 2782 2621 271 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 6 6 2729 2582 232 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 6 6 2675 2551 201 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 8 8 2622 2521 171 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 8 8 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 8 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 9 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 9 2490 2397 47 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 8 9 2552 2459 109 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 9 10 2675 2551 201 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 63 63 NNW 9 10 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 68 69 NNW 9 10 3155 2993 643 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 71 73 NNE 9 11 5317 3215 865 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 75 78 NNE 9 11 8816 6910 4560 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 77 80 NNE 9 11 9499 8370 6020 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 78 81 NE 8 11 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 79 81 NE 8 11 9835 8740 6390 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 78 79 NE 8 11 9159 7663 5313 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 76 76 NE 8 10 7799 5221 2871 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 72 72 NE 8 10 4461 3153 803 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 68 68 NE 8 10 3102 2940 590 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 64 64 NNW 8 9 2888 2727 377 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 8 9 2835 2674 324 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 62 62 NNW 8 9 2782 2621 271 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com