Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 S 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 SW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 37 S 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 38 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 39 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 39 S 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 S 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 S 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 38 38 SW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 S 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 SW 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SW 20 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 SW 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 SW 20 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 SW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 SW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 SW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 SW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 38 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 39 S 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 38 S 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 34 34 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 36 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 36 36 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 36 36 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 39 SW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 41 SW 9 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 42 42 SW 9 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 41 41 S 9 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 40 40 S 9 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 S 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 40 S 20 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 42 42 S 20 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 42 42 S 20 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 43 43 S 20 3249 2544 194 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 44 44 S 20 3478 2784 434 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 45 45 S 20 3576 3013 663 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 45 45 SW 17 3576 3013 663 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 43 43 SW 17 3249 2544 194 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 41 41 SW 17 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 40 40 SW 17 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 40 40 SW 17 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 41 41 SW 17 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 12 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 12 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 12 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 42 42 W 12 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 12 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 39 39 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 SW 10 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 41 41 SW 13 2789 2388 38 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 43 43 SW 13 3249 2544 194 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 45 45 SW 13 3576 3013 663 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 46 46 SW 13 3636 3241 891 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 45 45 SW 13 3576 3013 663 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 43 43 SW 13 3249 2544 194 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 42 42 S 12 3020 2388 38 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 40 40 S 12 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 40 40 S 12 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 40 40 S 12 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 40 40 S 12 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 40 40 S 12 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 40 40 S 7 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 40 40 S 7 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 S 7 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 40 40 S 7 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 7 2549 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 39 39 S 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com