Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 44 W 12 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 W 10 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 49 50 SW 13 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 53 54 SW 14 4918 4311 1961 White 12
12 Noon Fri 56 57 SW 15 5561 5561 3211 White 15
1 PM Fri 58 59 SW 16 5987 5987 3637 White 17
2 PM Fri 58 59 SW 17 5987 5987 3637 White 17
3 PM Fri 58 58 SW 17 5776 5776 3426 White 16
4 PM Fri 56 56 SW 18 5347 5347 2997 White 14
5 PM Fri 54 54 SW 18 4918 4311 1961 White 12
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 18 4482 3322 972 White 10
7 PM Fri 49 49 SW 17 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 47 47 SW 16 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 46 46 SW 15 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SW 13 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 45 45 SW 13 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 45 45 SW 13 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 13 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 44 44 SW 13 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 43 43 SW 13 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 SW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 SW 10 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 45 45 W 12 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 47 47 W 14 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 49 49 W 16 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 51 51 W 20 4257 3231 881 White 9
2 PM Sat 52 52 W 23 4482 3322 972 White 10
3 PM Sat 52 52 W 25 4482 3322 972 White 10
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 25 4482 3322 972 White 10
5 PM Sat 51 51 W 26 4257 3231 881 White 9
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 25 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 23 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 21 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 18 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 44 44 W 16 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 43 43 W 15 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 W 14 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 W 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 SW 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 SW 10 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 47 47 SW 10 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 50 50 SW 10 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 53 53 SW 12 4702 3803 1453 White 11
2 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 4918 4311 1961 White 12
3 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 4918 4311 1961 White 12
4 PM Sun 53 53 SW 12 4702 3803 1453 White 11
5 PM Sun 51 51 SW 9 4257 3231 881 White 9
6 PM Sun 49 49 SW 9 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 47 47 SW 9 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 46 46 SW 10 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 10 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 44 44 SW 10 2678 2388 38 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 42 42 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 W 9 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 48 48 W 9 3235 2889 539 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 4257 3231 881 White 9
11 AM Mon 54 54 SW 10 4918 4311 1961 White 12
12 Noon Mon 56 56 SW 10 5347 5347 2997 White 14
1 PM Mon 58 58 SW 10 5776 5776 3426 White 16
2 PM Mon 58 58 SW 10 5776 5776 3426 White 16
3 PM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5987 5987 3637 White 17
4 PM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5987 5987 3637 White 17
5 PM Mon 58 58 S 10 5776 5776 3426 White 16
6 PM Mon 57 57 S 10 5561 5561 3211 White 15
7 PM Mon 56 56 S 10 5347 5347 2997 White 14
8 PM Mon 54 54 S 10 4918 4311 1961 White 12
9 PM Mon 53 53 S 10 4702 3803 1453 White 11
10 PM Mon 52 52 S 10 4482 3322 972 White 10
11 PM Mon 52 52 SW 10 4482 3322 972 White 10
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 10 4482 3322 972 White 10
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 10 4482 3322 972 White 10
2 AM Tue 52 52 SW 10 4482 3322 972 White 10
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 10 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 3235 2889 539 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 12 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 12 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 3235 2889 539 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 49 49 W 12 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 51 51 W 12 4257 3231 881 White 9
10 AM Tue 53 53 W 12 4702 3803 1453 White 11
11 AM Tue 55 55 W 13 5132 5132 2782 White 13
12 Noon Tue 58 59 W 13 5987 5987 3637 White 17
1 PM Tue 60 61 W 13 6408 6408 4058 White 19
2 PM Tue 61 62 W 13 6617 6617 4267 White 20
3 PM Tue 61 61 W 13 6408 6408 4058 White 19
4 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 5987 5987 3637 White 17
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 14 5561 5561 3211 White 15
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 14 5132 5132 2782 White 13
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 14 4702 3803 1453 White 11
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 14 4257 3231 881 White 9
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 14 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 14 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 49 49 W 17 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 17 3325 3051 701 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 17 3235 2889 539 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 17 3145 2674 324 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 17 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 17 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 22 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 42 42 W 22 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 W 22 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 W 22 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 45 45 W 22 2896 2388 38 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 49 50 W 22 3833 3141 791 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 52 53 W 26 4702 3803 1453 White 11
12 Noon Wed 54 56 W 26 5347 5347 2997 White 14
1 PM Wed 56 58 W 26 5776 5776 3426 White 16
2 PM Wed 57 59 W 26 5987 5987 3637 White 17
3 PM Wed 57 58 W 26 5776 5776 3426 White 16
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 26 5347 5347 2997 White 14
5 PM Wed 54 54 W 16 4918 4311 1961 White 12
6 PM Wed 52 52 W 16 4482 3322 972 White 10
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 16 3235 2889 539 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 16 3054 2494 144 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 43 43 W 16 2496 2388 38 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com