Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 57 W 8 2414 2397 47 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 2427 2403 53 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 8 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 65 67 W 6 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 69 72 W 6 3094 2963 613 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 73 78 W 6 5057 3703 1353 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 77 83 SE 6 10339 6312 3962 White 30
12 Noon Sat 79 86 SE 6 10956 10628 8278 White 33
1 PM Sat 81 89 SE 6 11568 11568 9218 White 36
2 PM Sat 83 90 SE 8 11771 11771 9421 White 37
3 PM Sat 84 90 SE 8 11771 11771 9421 White 37
4 PM Sat 86 91 SE 8 11973 11973 9623 White 38
5 PM Sat 86 89 S 7 11568 11568 9218 White 36
6 PM Sat 85 86 S 7 10956 10628 8278 White 33
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 7 10339 6312 3962 White 30
8 PM Sat 80 80 S 9 6405 4551 2201 Blue 27
9 PM Sat 76 76 S 9 4158 3152 802 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 73 73 S 9 3156 3006 656 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 2964 2815 465 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 W 12 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 66 66 W 12 2817 2633 283 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 10 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 63 63 W 10 2634 2487 137 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 61 61 W 10 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 9 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 10 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 9 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 69 71 W 9 3051 2920 570 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 74 77 W 8 4584 3277 927 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 78 83 W 7 10339 6312 3962 White 30
11 AM Sun 82 88 W 7 11364 11364 9014 White 35
12 Noon Sun 85 92 W 8 12174 12174 9824 White 39
1 PM Sun 88 95 W 9 12775 12775 10425 White 42
2 PM Sun 89 95 W 10 12775 12775 10425 White 42
3 PM Sun 90 95 W 12 12775 12775 10425 White 42
4 PM Sun 91 95 W 13 12775 12775 10425 White 42
5 PM Sun 90 92 W 14 12174 12174 9824 White 39
6 PM Sun 88 89 W 16 11568 11568 9218 White 36
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 18 10752 9235 6885 White 32
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 21 7717 5000 2650 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 21 4584 3277 927 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 20 3156 3006 656 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 70 70 NW 18 3008 2876 526 Blue 17
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 18 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 17 2817 2633 283 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 17 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 16 2634 2487 137 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 15 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 14 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 14 2634 2487 137 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 65 65 W 13 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 68 69 W 13 2964 2815 465 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 71 74 W 12 3285 3049 699 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 74 79 W 10 5706 4130 1780 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 78 84 W 10 10545 7270 4920 White 31
12 Noon Mon 81 88 W 12 11364 11364 9014 White 35
1 PM Mon 84 92 W 13 12174 12174 9824 White 39
2 PM Mon 86 93 W 14 12375 12375 10025 White 40
3 PM Mon 88 94 W 15 12575 12575 10225 White 41
4 PM Mon 89 93 W 16 12375 12375 10025 White 40
5 PM Mon 89 92 W 18 12174 12174 9824 White 39
6 PM Mon 86 87 W 21 11160 11160 8810 White 34
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 24 10339 6312 3962 White 30
8 PM Mon 79 79 W 25 5706 4130 1780 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 76 76 W 25 4158 3152 802 Blue 23
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 24 3156 3006 656 Blue 20
11 PM Mon 70 70 W 23 3008 2876 526 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 23 2921 2755 405 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 22 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 22 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 21 2695 2517 167 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 62 62 W 20 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 62 62 W 22 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 22 2634 2487 137 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 65 65 W 22 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
8 AM Tue 68 69 W 22 2964 2815 465 Blue 16
9 AM Tue 71 74 W 22 3285 3049 699 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 74 78 W 22 5057 3703 1353 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 76 82 W 25 9608 5624 3274 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 79 86 W 25 10956 10628 8278 White 33
1 PM Tue 81 88 W 25 11364 11364 9014 White 35
2 PM Tue 82 89 W 25 11568 11568 9218 White 36
3 PM Tue 83 89 W 25 11568 11568 9218 White 36
4 PM Tue 83 87 W 25 11160 11160 8810 White 34
5 PM Tue 81 84 W 33 10545 7270 4920 White 31
6 PM Tue 79 80 W 33 6405 4551 2201 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 33 4158 3152 802 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 33 3094 2963 613 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 33 2964 2815 465 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 33 2756 2573 223 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 63 63 W 31 2634 2487 137 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 31 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 31 2457 2408 58 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 31 2427 2403 53 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 31 2414 2397 47 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 31 2408 2391 41 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 56 56 W 25 2408 2391 41 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 57 57 W 25 2414 2397 47 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 58 58 W 25 2427 2403 53 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 61 62 W 25 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 64 67 W 25 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 67 71 W 25 3051 2920 570 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 70 76 W 31 4158 3152 802 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 72 79 W 31 5706 4130 1780 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 74 81 W 31 7717 5000 2650 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 76 83 W 31 10339 6312 3962 White 30
3 PM Wed 76 82 W 31 9608 5624 3274 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 76 80 W 31 6405 4551 2201 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 75 78 W 32 5057 3703 1353 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 73 74 W 32 3285 3049 699 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 32 3008 2876 526 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 32 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 32 2695 2517 167 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 32 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 29 2427 2403 53 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 29 2414 2397 47 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 56 56 W 29 2408 2391 41 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 29 2403 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 29 2397 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 29 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 20 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 W 20 2397 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 56 56 W 20 2408 2391 41 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 60 61 W 20 2518 2427 77 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 63 66 W 20 2817 2633 283 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 65 70 W 20 3008 2876 526 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 68 74 W 21 3285 3049 699 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 70 76 W 21 4158 3152 802 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 72 79 W 21 5706 4130 1780 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 21 6405 4551 2201 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 75 80 W 21 6405 4551 2201 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 75 79 W 21 5706 4130 1780 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 74 77 W 24 4584 3277 927 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 72 73 W 24 3156 3006 656 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 24 3008 2876 526 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 24 2878 2694 344 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 24 2695 2517 167 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 24 2574 2457 107 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 20 2487 2414 64 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 20 2427 2403 53 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 20 2408 2391 41 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 20 2403 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 20 2397 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 53 53 W 20 2391 2388 38 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com