Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 13 2530 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 60 60 W 14 2530 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 2530 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 62 62 W 18 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 66 67 W 20 2960 2774 424 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 71 73 W 21 3329 3142 792 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 75 78 W 20 4744 3790 1440 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 79 83 W 22 8368 6485 4135 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 80 84 W 22 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 81 85 W 21 9459 7605 5255 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 82 85 W 23 9459 7605 5255 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 82 84 W 23 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 80 82 W 26 7722 5666 3316 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 78 79 W 28 5850 4303 1953 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 74 74 NW 28 3390 3204 854 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 71 71 NW 29 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 29 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 28 2898 2713 363 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 15 2775 2590 240 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 22 2714 2529 179 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 22 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 14 2591 2402 52 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 59 59 W 20 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 18 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 16 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 15 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 14 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 65 67 W 13 2960 2774 424 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 68 71 NW 13 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 71 75 NW 15 3819 3265 915 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 74 80 NW 16 6542 4515 2165 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 76 82 W 18 7722 5666 3316 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 78 84 W 20 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 79 84 W 22 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 25 8368 6485 4135 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 79 81 W 22 7043 4727 2377 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 23 4531 3388 1038 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 23 3267 3081 731 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 68 68 NW 22 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 65 65 NW 20 2837 2652 302 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 63 63 NW 17 2714 2529 179 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 61 61 NW 15 2591 2402 52 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NW 14 2530 2388 38 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 14 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 N 0 2530 2388 38 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 63 65 N 0 2837 2652 302 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 67 70 N 0 3144 2958 608 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 71 75 N 0 3819 3265 915 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 74 80 N 0 6542 4515 2165 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 76 82 N 0 7722 5666 3316 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 78 84 N 0 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 80 85 N 0 9459 7605 5255 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 81 84 N 0 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 80 82 N 0 7722 5666 3316 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 78 79 N 0 5850 4303 1953 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 75 75 N 0 3819 3265 915 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 71 71 N 0 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 69 69 N 0 3083 2897 547 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 67 67 N 0 2960 2774 424 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 65 65 N 0 2837 2652 302 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 0 2775 2590 240 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 0 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 0 2591 2402 52 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 0 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 0 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 N 0 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 N 0 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 0 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 0 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 66 68 N 0 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 71 74 N 0 3390 3204 854 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 76 80 N 0 6542 4515 2165 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 79 85 N 0 9459 7605 5255 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 82 88 N 0 10311 9401 7051 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 83 89 N 0 10812 9618 7268 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 85 90 N 0 11170 9719 7369 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 86 89 N 0 10812 9618 7268 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 86 88 N 0 10311 9401 7051 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 83 84 N 0 8986 6935 4585 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 79 79 N 0 5850 4303 1953 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 75 75 N 0 3819 3265 915 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 71 71 N 0 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 68 68 N 0 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 66 66 N 0 2898 2713 363 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 0 2775 2590 240 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 0 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 61 61 N 0 2591 2402 52 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 0 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 0 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 0 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 0 2403 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 0 2469 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 62 62 N 0 2653 2468 118 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 0 2960 2774 424 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 71 74 N 0 3390 3204 854 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 77 81 N 0 7043 4727 2377 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 81 86 N 0 9643 8243 5893 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 84 90 N 0 11170 9719 7369 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 86 91 N 0 11469 10242 7892 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 88 92 N 0 11765 10701 8351 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 89 92 N 0 11765 10701 8351 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 88 89 N 0 10812 9618 7268 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 86 86 N 0 9643 8243 5893 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 82 82 N 0 7722 5666 3316 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 78 78 N 0 4744 3790 1440 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 75 75 N 0 3819 3265 915 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 73 73 N 0 3329 3142 792 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 71 71 N 0 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 N 0 3083 2897 547 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 68 68 N 0 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 0 2898 2713 363 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 0 2837 2652 302 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 0 2775 2590 240 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 0 2714 2529 179 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 0 2714 2529 179 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 65 65 N 0 2837 2652 302 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 68 68 N 0 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 71 72 N 0 3267 3081 731 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 76 78 N 0 4744 3790 1440 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 80 83 N 0 8368 6485 4135 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 83 87 N 0 9744 8853 6503 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 86 90 N 0 11170 9719 7369 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 88 92 N 0 11765 10701 8351 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 89 93 N 0 12059 11081 8731 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 90 92 N 0 11765 10701 8351 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 89 90 N 0 11170 9719 7369 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 86 86 N 0 9643 8243 5893 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 83 83 N 0 8368 6485 4135 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 79 79 N 0 5850 4303 1953 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 76 76 N 0 4318 3326 976 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 73 73 N 0 3329 3142 792 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 71 71 N 0 3206 3019 669 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 0 3144 2958 608 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 0 3083 2897 547 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 68 68 N 0 3021 2835 485 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 0 2898 2713 363 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 0 2837 2652 302 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com