Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 WNW 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 32 32 WNW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 32 32 WNW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 31 31 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 34 35 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 37 39 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 40 42 WNW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 42 45 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 44 46 WNW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 45 47 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 46 47 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 41 41 W 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 39 39 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 37 37 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 36 36 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 32 32 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 32 32 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 31 31 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 31 31 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 31 31 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 31 31 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 39 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 41 43 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 43 45 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 45 47 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 46 47 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 47 48 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 47 47 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 38 38 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 36 36 N 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 33 33 N 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 32 32 N 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 32 32 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 31 31 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 31 31 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 30 30 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 36 37 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 39 40 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 41 43 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 45 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 44 45 ESE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 45 46 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 46 46 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 47 47 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 41 41 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 38 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 37 37 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 37 37 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com