Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 SW 16 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 39 39 SW 15 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 38 38 S 10 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 39 39 SW 9 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 41 41 SW 12 2622 2498 148 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 42 42 SW 14 2664 2539 189 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 43 43 SW 15 2706 2581 231 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 43 43 SW 16 2706 2581 231 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 43 43 SW 16 2706 2581 231 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 42 42 SW 16 2664 2539 189 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 41 41 SW 15 2622 2498 148 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 40 40 SW 15 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 39 39 SW 14 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 38 38 SW 13 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 37 37 SW 13 2456 2398 48 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 36 36 SW 12 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SW 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 36 36 SW 10 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 37 37 SW 9 2456 2398 48 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 38 38 SW 9 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 37 37 SW 9 2456 2398 48 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 36 36 SW 9 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 35 35 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 SW 10 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 38 38 W 12 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 39 39 W 12 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 40 40 W 12 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 38 38 W 10 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 36 36 SW 9 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 35 35 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 SW 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 SW 9 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 S 7 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 S 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 33 SE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 35 SE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 36 SE 6 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 37 37 S 6 2456 2398 48 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 37 37 S 6 2456 2398 48 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 36 36 S 6 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 35 35 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 35 35 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 S 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 W 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 SW 12 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 36 SW 12 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 38 38 SW 12 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 40 40 SW 12 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 40 40 SW 12 2581 2456 106 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 39 39 SW 10 2539 2415 65 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 38 38 SW 10 2498 2398 48 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 36 36 SW 10 2415 2398 48 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 34 34 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 SW 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 W 10 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 30 W 8 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 34 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 35 35 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 35 35 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2398 48 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 NE 6 0 2398 48 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com