Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2971 2746 396 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 3045 2820 470 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 3195 2969 619 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 6 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 69 70 E 6 6383 3415 1065 White 17
10 AM Tue 71 73 E 5 7019 7019 4669 White 20
11 AM Tue 74 78 E 5 8070 8070 5720 White 25
12 Noon Tue 75 79 E 5 8281 8281 5931 White 26
1 PM Tue 77 82 E 5 8907 8907 6557 White 29
2 PM Tue 78 82 E 6 8907 8907 6557 White 29
3 PM Tue 79 83 E 6 9115 9115 6765 White 30
4 PM Tue 80 82 E 6 8907 8907 6557 White 29
5 PM Tue 81 82 E 5 8907 8907 6557 White 29
6 PM Tue 81 82 E 6 8907 8907 6557 White 29
7 PM Tue 80 80 E 6 8490 8490 6140 White 27
8 PM Tue 79 79 E 6 8281 8281 5931 White 26
9 PM Tue 77 77 SE 6 7861 7861 5511 White 24
10 PM Tue 74 74 S 6 7230 7230 4880 White 21
11 PM Tue 72 72 S 6 6807 4998 2648 White 19
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 S 6 6596 4084 1734 White 18
1 AM Wed 70 70 SW 5 6383 3415 1065 White 17
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 5 6166 3341 991 White 16
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 5 3419 3192 842 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 5 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 66 66 NW 5 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 67 67 NE 3 3419 3192 842 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 6166 3341 991 White 16
8 AM Wed 72 73 NE 5 7019 7019 4669 White 20
9 AM Wed 74 76 E 5 7651 7651 5301 White 23
10 AM Wed 76 79 E 5 8281 8281 5931 White 26
11 AM Wed 78 82 E 5 8907 8907 6557 White 29
12 Noon Wed 80 85 E 5 9534 9534 7184 White 32
1 PM Wed 81 86 E 5 9749 9749 7399 White 33
2 PM Wed 82 87 E 5 9962 9962 7612 White 34
3 PM Wed 83 87 SE 5 9962 9962 7612 White 34
4 PM Wed 84 87 SE 3 9962 9962 7612 White 34
5 PM Wed 84 86 SE 3 9749 9749 7399 White 33
6 PM Wed 84 85 S 3 9534 9534 7184 White 32
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 3 9115 9115 6765 White 30
8 PM Wed 81 81 NW 3 8698 8698 6348 White 28
9 PM Wed 78 78 NW 3 8070 8070 5720 White 25
10 PM Wed 75 75 NW 5 7440 7440 5090 White 22
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 6 6807 4998 2648 White 19
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 NW 7 6383 3415 1065 White 17
1 AM Thu 69 69 NW 8 6166 3341 991 White 16
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 3419 3192 842 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 7 3195 2969 619 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 68 68 W 8 4148 3266 916 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 70 71 W 8 6596 4084 1734 White 18
10 AM Thu 72 73 W 7 7019 7019 4669 White 20
11 AM Thu 74 76 W 7 7651 7651 5301 White 23
12 Noon Thu 76 79 W 8 8281 8281 5931 White 26
1 PM Thu 78 81 W 9 8698 8698 6348 White 28
2 PM Thu 80 84 W 12 9323 9323 6973 White 31
3 PM Thu 81 84 W 15 9323 9323 6973 White 31
4 PM Thu 81 83 W 18 9115 9115 6765 White 30
5 PM Thu 81 82 W 22 8907 8907 6557 White 29
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 22 8698 8698 6348 White 28
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 23 8070 8070 5720 White 25
8 PM Thu 76 76 NW 23 7651 7651 5301 White 23
9 PM Thu 72 72 NW 21 6807 4998 2648 White 19
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 18 6166 3341 991 White 16
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 16 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 16 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 16 3195 2969 619 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 16 3120 2894 544 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 15 3045 2820 470 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 13 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 59 59 W 12 2822 2597 247 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 3045 2820 470 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 64 65 W 9 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 67 70 W 9 6383 3415 1065 White 17
10 AM Fri 70 74 W 10 7230 7230 4880 White 21
11 AM Fri 73 79 W 12 8281 8281 5931 White 26
12 Noon Fri 75 82 W 13 8907 8907 6557 White 29
1 PM Fri 76 83 W 15 9115 9115 6765 White 30
2 PM Fri 77 83 W 16 9115 9115 6765 White 30
3 PM Fri 78 83 W 18 9115 9115 6765 White 30
4 PM Fri 78 82 W 21 8907 8907 6557 White 29
5 PM Fri 77 79 W 23 8281 8281 5931 White 26
6 PM Fri 75 76 W 23 7651 7651 5301 White 23
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 23 6807 4998 2648 White 19
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 23 6166 3341 991 White 16
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 23 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 23 3120 2894 544 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 18 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 18 2822 2597 247 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 18 2747 2523 173 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 18 2673 2449 99 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 56 56 W 18 2599 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 18 2524 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 13 2524 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 56 56 W 7 2599 2388 38 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 7 2747 2523 173 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 60 61 W 7 2971 2746 396 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 63 66 W 7 3344 3117 767 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 66 70 W 7 6383 3415 1065 White 17
11 AM Sat 69 75 W 7 7440 7440 5090 White 22
12 Noon Sat 71 78 W 13 8070 8070 5720 White 25
1 PM Sat 73 80 W 13 8490 8490 6140 White 27
2 PM Sat 75 82 W 13 8907 8907 6557 White 29
3 PM Sat 76 82 W 13 8907 8907 6557 White 29
4 PM Sat 77 81 W 13 8698 8698 6348 White 28
5 PM Sat 77 80 W 13 8490 8490 6140 White 27
6 PM Sat 77 78 W 10 8070 8070 5720 White 25
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 7651 7651 5301 White 23
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 7440 7440 5090 White 22
9 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 6807 4998 2648 White 19
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 4148 3266 916 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 7 3195 2969 619 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 3120 2894 544 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 7 3045 2820 470 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 7 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 7 2747 2523 173 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 7 2673 2449 99 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2747 2523 173 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 60 60 S 6 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 63 64 S 6 3195 2969 619 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 66 69 S 6 6166 3341 991 White 16
10 AM Sun 69 74 S 6 7230 7230 4880 White 21
11 AM Sun 72 78 S 6 8070 8070 5720 White 25
12 Noon Sun 75 82 S 8 8907 8907 6557 White 29
1 PM Sun 78 86 S 8 9749 9749 7399 White 33
2 PM Sun 80 87 S 8 9962 9962 7612 White 34
3 PM Sun 81 87 S 8 9962 9962 7612 White 34
4 PM Sun 81 86 S 8 9749 9749 7399 White 33
5 PM Sun 81 84 S 8 9323 9323 6973 White 31
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 9 8698 8698 6348 White 28
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 8070 8070 5720 White 25
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 7440 7440 5090 White 22
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 6807 4998 2648 White 19
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 4148 3266 916 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 9 3269 3043 693 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 9 3045 2820 470 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 9 2971 2746 396 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 9 2896 2671 321 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 9 2822 2597 247 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 9 2747 2523 173 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com