Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 N 7 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 7 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 7 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 67 67 N 7 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 70 72 N 7 2780 2577 227 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 74 77 N 7 3381 2999 649 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 78 83 N 7 4747 3910 1560 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 81 87 N 7 9109 5006 2656 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 83 89 N 8 11357 7842 5492 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 85 91 N 8 11792 10719 8369 Blue 36
3 PM Sun 86 91 N 8 11792 10719 8369 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 86 90 N 9 11584 8924 6574 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 86 88 N 9 11103 6461 4111 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 85 86 N 9 8076 4723 2373 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 83 83 N 9 4747 3910 1560 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 80 80 N 12 3921 3373 1023 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 77 77 N 13 3381 2999 649 Blue 22
10 PM Sun 74 74 N 13 3002 2681 331 Blue 19
11 PM Sun 72 72 N 13 2780 2577 227 Blue 17
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 N 14 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
1 AM Mon 71 71 N 16 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 70 70 N 17 2629 2476 126 Blue 15
3 AM Mon 69 69 N 18 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 20 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 66 66 N 21 2466 2433 83 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 21 2466 2433 83 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 67 67 N 21 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 69 69 N 21 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 72 73 N 21 2891 2628 278 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 75 78 N 21 3561 3109 759 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 77 81 N 21 4171 3552 1202 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 80 85 N 20 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 82 88 N 20 11103 6461 4111 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 84 90 NE 20 11584 8924 6574 Blue 35
3 PM Mon 85 90 NE 18 11584 8924 6574 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 85 88 NE 18 11103 6461 4111 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 85 87 NE 17 9109 5006 2656 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 83 84 NE 18 5032 4152 1802 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 81 81 NE 20 4171 3552 1202 Blue 26
8 PM Mon 79 79 NE 21 3741 3220 870 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 76 76 NE 22 3224 2888 538 Blue 21
10 PM Mon 73 73 NE 22 2891 2628 278 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 71 71 NE 22 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 NE 22 2629 2476 126 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 69 69 NE 21 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 68 68 NE 21 2526 2455 105 Blue 13
3 AM Tue 67 67 NE 20 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 20 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 64 64 NE 17 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 64 64 NE 17 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 65 65 NE 16 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 67 67 NE 15 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 69 71 NE 14 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 72 75 N 13 3113 2778 428 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 75 80 N 13 3921 3373 1023 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 77 83 N 12 4747 3910 1560 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 79 85 NE 12 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 81 87 NE 12 9109 5006 2656 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 82 87 NE 12 9109 5006 2656 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 83 87 NE 10 9109 5006 2656 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 83 85 NE 9 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 81 82 NE 7 4460 3732 1382 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 78 78 NE 6 3561 3109 759 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 75 75 NE 6 3113 2778 428 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 73 73 N 6 2891 2628 278 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 71 71 NW 6 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 69 69 NW 7 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NW 7 2526 2455 105 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 66 66 NW 7 2466 2433 83 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 65 65 W 7 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 64 64 W 7 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 63 63 W 7 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 2422 2405 55 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 2422 2405 55 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 63 63 W 6 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 69 71 SW 6 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 73 76 SW 6 3224 2888 538 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 78 82 SW 6 4460 3732 1382 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 81 86 SW 6 8076 4723 2373 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 84 90 SW 7 11584 8924 6574 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 86 91 SW 9 11792 10719 8369 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 88 92 SW 10 11992 11281 8931 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 88 91 SW 12 11792 10719 8369 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 87 89 SW 9 11357 7842 5492 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 85 86 SW 9 8076 4723 2373 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 9 4747 3910 1560 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 3741 3220 870 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 12 3224 2888 538 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 3002 2681 331 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 17 2780 2577 227 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 17 2629 2476 126 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 17 2526 2455 105 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 17 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 17 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 17 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 15 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 15 2422 2405 55 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 15 2422 2405 55 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 64 64 W 15 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 67 69 W 15 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 71 74 W 15 3002 2681 331 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 75 79 W 14 3741 3220 870 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 77 82 W 14 4460 3732 1382 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 79 85 W 14 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 80 85 W 14 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 81 86 W 14 8076 4723 2373 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 82 85 W 14 6687 4438 2088 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 21 4747 3910 1560 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 79 80 W 21 3921 3373 1023 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 21 3113 2778 428 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 21 2683 2525 175 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 21 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 21 2455 2422 72 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 15 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 15 2422 2405 55 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 15 2415 2401 51 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 15 2410 2396 46 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 15 2406 2391 41 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 15 2396 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 2391 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 2391 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 2396 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 2406 2391 41 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 62 63 W 9 2433 2410 60 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 66 69 W 9 2578 2465 115 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 69 73 W 12 2891 2628 278 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 72 77 W 12 3381 2999 649 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 74 79 W 12 3741 3220 870 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 75 80 W 12 3921 3373 1023 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 77 81 W 12 4171 3552 1202 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 77 80 W 12 3921 3373 1023 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 77 79 W 17 3741 3220 870 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 75 76 W 17 3224 2888 538 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 17 2891 2628 278 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 17 2629 2476 126 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 17 2477 2444 94 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 17 2444 2415 65 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 15 2415 2401 51 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 15 2410 2396 46 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 2410 2396 46 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 15 2406 2391 41 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 15 2401 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 15 2391 2388 38 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com