Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 54 55 NE 6 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 58 60 NE 6 2914 2745 395 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 63 67 N 7 3858 3544 1194 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 67 72 NE 7 7259 4176 1826 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 70 76 NE 7 7841 7621 5271 Blue 36
1 PM Thu 72 78 NE 7 7943 7780 5430 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 74 80 NE 8 8166 7882 5532 Blue 40
3 PM Thu 75 80 NE 8 8166 7882 5532 Blue 40
4 PM Thu 76 79 NE 8 7995 7831 5481 Blue 39
5 PM Thu 76 78 NE 7 7943 7780 5430 Blue 38
6 PM Thu 73 73 NE 7 7644 4457 2107 Blue 33
7 PM Thu 70 70 NE 7 4479 3852 1502 Blue 30
8 PM Thu 67 67 NE 7 3858 3544 1194 Blue 27
9 PM Thu 63 63 NE 7 3446 2913 563 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 61 61 NE 7 3094 2801 451 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 59 59 N 7 2858 2662 312 Blue 19
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 8 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 8 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 9 2521 2473 123 Blue 13
8 AM Fri 55 56 N 9 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 58 60 N 9 2914 2745 395 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 62 65 N 9 3652 3339 989 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 66 70 N 10 4479 3852 1502 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 70 75 N 10 7790 7015 4665 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 73 78 N 10 7943 7780 5430 Blue 38
2 PM Fri 75 79 N 9 7995 7831 5481 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 76 79 N 9 7995 7831 5481 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 76 78 N 8 7943 7780 5430 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 74 74 NW 12 7738 5264 2914 Blue 34
6 PM Fri 71 71 NW 12 5500 3954 1604 Blue 31
7 PM Fri 67 67 NW 14 3858 3544 1194 Blue 27
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 16 3446 2913 563 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 17 2858 2662 312 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 18 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 17 2521 2473 123 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 17 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 17 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 17 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 16 2465 2441 91 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 48 48 W 16 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 15 2449 2424 74 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 47 47 W 14 2449 2424 74 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 13 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 46 46 W 12 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 50 50 W 12 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 52 52 W 10 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 54 55 W 10 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 55 56 W 10 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 55 56 W 9 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 54 54 W 12 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 13 2521 2473 123 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 13 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 13 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 13 2465 2441 91 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 13 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 13 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 13 2433 2408 58 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 44 44 W 13 2425 2400 50 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 44 44 W 13 2425 2400 50 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 44 44 W 12 2425 2400 50 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 46 46 W 12 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 49 49 W 12 2465 2441 91 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 51 52 W 12 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 53 54 W 12 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 54 55 W 13 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 55 56 W 13 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 56 56 W 14 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 56 56 W 14 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 15 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 54 54 W 15 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 15 2521 2473 123 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 2488 2457 107 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 15 2465 2441 91 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 15 2449 2424 74 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 13 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 13 2433 2408 58 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 2425 2400 50 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 13 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 13 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 13 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 46 46 W 13 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 49 49 W 13 2465 2441 91 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 52 53 W 9 2521 2473 123 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 54 55 W 9 2593 2505 155 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 55 56 W 9 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 56 57 W 9 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 57 57 W 14 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 2664 2521 171 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 14 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 14 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 14 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 13 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 13 2433 2408 58 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 43 43 W 13 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 13 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 13 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 13 2400 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 12 2400 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 41 41 W 12 2400 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 2408 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 44 44 W 12 2425 2400 50 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 47 48 W 12 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 50 52 W 12 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 53 57 W 7 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 56 60 W 7 2914 2745 395 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 58 63 W 7 3446 2913 563 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 60 64 W 7 3549 3079 729 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 61 64 W 7 3549 3079 729 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 61 63 W 7 3446 2913 563 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 61 62 W 12 3343 2857 507 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 12 2858 2662 312 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 57 57 W 12 2746 2546 196 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 12 2547 2488 138 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 12 2505 2465 115 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 12 2473 2449 99 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 48 48 W 10 2457 2432 82 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 10 2449 2424 74 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 10 2441 2416 66 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 10 2433 2408 58 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 10 2416 2392 42 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 10 2408 2388 38 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com