Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 33 33 N 7 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 36 36 N 6 2802 2592 242 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 2938 2731 381 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 41 41 N 6 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 40 40 N 5 3047 2870 520 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 37 37 N 5 2871 2661 311 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 35 35 N 5 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 34 34 N 5 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 34 34 NW 5 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 34 34 NW 5 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 32 32 NW 5 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 31 31 S 5 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 32 32 S 5 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 S 5 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 34 34 S 6 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 33 33 S 6 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 33 33 S 7 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 33 33 S 7 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 7 2871 2661 311 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 39 39 SW 16 2993 2800 450 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 44 44 SW 16 3682 3100 750 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 46 46 SW 16 5037 3209 859 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 5286 3657 1307 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 46 46 W 21 5037 3209 859 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 44 44 W 21 3682 3100 750 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 43 43 W 18 3211 3045 695 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 41 41 W 18 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 41 41 W 18 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 3047 2870 520 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 3047 2870 520 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 39 39 W 17 2993 2800 450 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 14 2938 2731 381 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 37 37 W 14 2871 2661 311 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 14 2802 2592 242 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 9 2802 2592 242 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 35 35 W 9 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 35 35 W 9 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 32 32 NW 9 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 29 29 NW 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 30 30 NW 8 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 32 32 NW 8 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 38 39 N 6 2993 2800 450 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 39 40 N 6 3047 2870 520 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 40 41 NE 5 3102 2936 586 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 39 39 NE 5 2993 2800 450 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 37 37 NE 5 2871 2661 311 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 35 35 NE 6 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 33 33 NE 6 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 32 32 NE 6 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 32 32 N 9 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 31 31 N 9 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 30 30 N 9 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 29 29 N 9 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 28 28 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 31 N 10 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 34 34 N 10 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 36 37 N 10 2871 2661 311 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 37 38 N 8 2938 2731 381 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 36 36 N 8 2802 2592 242 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 33 33 N 8 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 31 31 N 8 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 29 29 N 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 29 29 N 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 28 28 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 27 27 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 26 26 NW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 23 23 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 24 24 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 30 N 7 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 35 35 N 7 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 36 36 N 6 2802 2592 242 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 35 35 N 6 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 33 33 N 6 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 31 31 N 6 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 30 30 N 6 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 29 29 N 6 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 29 29 NW 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 29 29 NW 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 29 29 NW 8 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 28 28 NW 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 31 N 8 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 33 33 N 8 2593 2447 97 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 35 35 N 8 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 35 35 N 6 2732 2522 172 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 34 34 N 6 2663 2478 128 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 32 32 N 6 2524 2415 65 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 31 31 N 6 2479 2388 38 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 30 30 N 6 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 30 30 N 6 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 30 30 NW 9 2447 2388 38 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 29 29 NW 9 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 29 29 NW 9 2415 2388 38 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com