Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 36 36 W 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 14 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 W 14 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 W 17 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 43 44 W 20 2320 2350 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 45 46 W 20 2751 2751 401 White 11
1 PM Fri 46 47 W 20 2968 2968 618 White 12
2 PM Fri 46 46 W 18 2751 2751 401 White 11
3 PM Fri 45 45 W 18 2535 2535 185 White 10
4 PM Fri 44 44 W 17 2320 2350 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 W 18 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 W 18 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 W 17 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 W 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 14 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 W 9 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 SW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 SW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 SW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 43 43 S 6 2107 2350 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 44 44 S 6 2320 2350 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 44 44 S 6 2320 2350 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 44 44 S 7 2320 2350 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 S 7 2107 2350 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 S 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 S 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 SW 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 SW 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 SW 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SW 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 SW 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SW 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 SW 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 SW 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 SW 14 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 41 41 SW 14 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 SW 14 2107 2350 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 SW 18 2535 2535 185 White 10
2 PM Sun 45 45 SW 18 2535 2535 185 White 10
3 PM Sun 45 45 SW 18 2535 2535 185 White 10
4 PM Sun 44 44 SW 22 2320 2350 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 SW 22 2107 2350 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 SW 22 2107 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 SW 22 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 22 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 SW 22 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SW 15 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 W 16 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 W 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 W 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 W 13 2107 2350 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 44 44 W 13 2320 2350 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 W 13 2320 2350 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 W 13 2107 2350 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 7 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 40 40 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 42 42 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 S 12 2535 2535 185 White 10
11 AM Wed 47 47 S 12 2968 2968 618 White 12
12 Noon Wed 50 50 S 12 3615 3615 1265 White 15
1 PM Wed 51 51 S 12 3829 3829 1479 White 16
2 PM Wed 52 52 S 12 4044 4044 1694 White 17
3 PM Wed 52 52 S 12 4044 4044 1694 White 17
4 PM Wed 51 51 S 17 3829 3829 1479 White 16
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 17 3615 3615 1265 White 15
6 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 3184 3184 834 White 13
7 PM Wed 47 47 S 17 2968 2968 618 White 12
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 17 2968 2968 618 White 12
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 17 2968 2968 618 White 12
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 17 2968 2968 618 White 12
11 PM Wed 47 47 SW 17 2968 2968 618 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SW 17 2751 2751 401 White 11
1 AM Thu 44 44 SW 17 2320 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 SW 17 2320 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 SW 17 2107 2350 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com