Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 32 32 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 33 33 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 34 34 W 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 35 S 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 35 SE 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 35 SE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 34 SE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 33 S 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 S 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 SW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 SW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 W 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NW 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 33 33 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 35 35 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 37 37 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 37 N 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 34 34 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 32 32 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 32 32 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 37 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 37 SW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 36 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 35 35 S 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 35 SE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 W 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 2474 2388 38 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 2474 2388 38 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 40 40 NW 6 2474 2388 38 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 40 40 NW 6 2474 2388 38 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 38 38 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 36 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 41 NE 8 2621 2388 38 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 42 43 E 9 2840 2473 123 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 42 42 E 9 2731 2429 79 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 42 42 SE 10 2731 2429 79 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 41 41 SE 8 2621 2388 38 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 40 40 SE 8 2474 2388 38 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 39 39 SE 8 2429 2388 38 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 38 38 SE 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 SE 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 SE 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 35 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 37 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 37 38 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 39 N 6 2429 2388 38 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 38 38 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 37 37 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 36 36 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 35 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 34 34 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 34 34 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 35 35 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 36 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 36 36 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com