Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2438 2391 41 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 2438 2391 41 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 38 38 NE 3 2438 2391 41 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 5 2469 2422 72 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 43 43 NE 5 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 52 54 NE 6 3074 2856 506 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 55 57 NE 6 3720 3070 720 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 57 60 NE 5 4530 3702 1352 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 59 61 NE 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 60 62 NE 5 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 61 62 NE 5 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 4530 3702 1352 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 5 3074 2856 506 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 5 2856 2786 436 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 5 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 6 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 2485 2438 88 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 48 49 N 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 53 55 N 5 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 56 58 N 3 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 58 61 NE 3 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 60 62 NE 3 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 61 63 E 3 4819 4522 2172 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 62 63 SE 3 4819 4522 2172 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 61 61 SE 3 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 59 59 S 3 4382 3375 1025 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 3 2880 2809 459 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 3 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 5 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 5 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 5 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 5 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 43 43 W 5 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 5 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 5 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 41 41 W 6 2485 2438 88 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 41 41 W 6 2485 2438 88 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 43 43 W 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 46 46 NW 5 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 49 50 N 5 2833 2763 413 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 53 54 N 3 3074 2856 506 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 56 58 N 3 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 58 60 W 5 4530 3702 1352 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 59 61 W 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 60 61 SW 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 61 61 S 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 60 60 S 5 4530 3702 1352 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 58 58 S 5 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 55 55 S 3 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 2933 2832 482 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 3 2856 2786 436 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 48 48 NW 5 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NW 5 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 5 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 5 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 6 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 6 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 44 44 N 7 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 50 51 N 7 2856 2786 436 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 54 56 NE 7 3390 2924 574 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 56 58 NE 7 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 59 61 NE 6 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 60 62 E 6 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 61 62 E 6 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 62 63 E 5 4819 4522 2172 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 61 61 SE 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 59 59 SE 5 4382 3375 1025 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 55 55 SE 5 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 52 52 SE 5 2880 2809 459 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 50 50 SE 5 2833 2763 413 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 49 49 SE 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 48 48 NW 7 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NW 7 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 7 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 45 45 NW 7 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 7 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 7 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 50 51 NW 6 2856 2786 436 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 54 56 N 7 3390 2924 574 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 58 60 N 7 4530 3702 1352 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 60 63 N 7 4819 4522 2172 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 62 64 N 7 4912 4621 2271 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 63 65 N 7 5004 4718 2368 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 63 64 N 7 4912 4621 2271 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 62 62 NE 5 4726 4356 2006 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 59 59 NE 5 4382 3375 1025 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 55 55 NE 5 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2880 2809 459 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2833 2763 413 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 48 48 NW 8 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 8 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 2568 2469 119 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 2502 2453 103 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 2485 2438 88 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2469 2422 72 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2469 2422 72 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 2485 2438 88 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 44 44 N 7 2634 2485 135 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 48 49 N 7 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 53 55 N 7 3206 2879 529 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 57 59 N 7 4382 3375 1025 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 60 63 N 7 4819 4522 2172 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 62 64 N 7 4912 4621 2271 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 63 65 N 7 5004 4718 2368 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 63 64 N 7 4912 4621 2271 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 61 61 N 5 4629 4026 1676 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 4047 3201 851 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 3074 2856 506 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 5 2856 2786 436 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 2833 2763 413 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 5 2810 2740 390 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 48 48 NW 8 2787 2698 348 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NW 8 2763 2633 283 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 46 46 NW 8 2740 2567 217 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 2700 2501 151 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 8 2634 2485 135 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com