Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 25 25 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 25 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 26 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 27 27 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 28 28 N 6 2498 2388 38 White 1
1 PM Sat 29 29 NE 6 2716 2388 38 White 2
2 PM Sat 30 30 NE 5 2934 2388 38 White 3
3 PM Sat 30 30 SE 5 2934 2388 38 White 3
4 PM Sat 30 30 SE 5 2934 2388 38 White 3
5 PM Sat 29 29 SE 5 2716 2388 38 White 2
6 PM Sat 28 28 S 5 2498 2388 38 White 1
7 PM Sat 27 27 SE 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 S 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 26 NE 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 25 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 NW 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 N 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 N 1 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 N 2 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 N 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 25 25 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 26 26 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 27 27 NE 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 27 27 NE 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 28 28 NE 10 2498 2388 38 White 1
3 PM Sun 28 28 NE 9 2498 2388 38 White 1
4 PM Sun 28 28 N 9 2498 2388 38 White 1
5 PM Sun 26 26 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 24 24 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 23 23 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 22 22 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 20 20 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 18 18 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 17 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 16 16 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 15 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 16 16 N 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 17 17 NE 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 19 20 NE 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 20 21 NE 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 21 22 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 22 24 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 23 24 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 23 23 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 23 23 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 20 20 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 18 18 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 15 15 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 14 14 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 14 14 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 14 14 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 13 13 SW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 13 13 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 12 12 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 12 12 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 11 11 NW 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 11 11 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 10 10 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 10 10 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 11 11 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 12 12 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 15 15 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 17 17 N 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 19 19 NE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 20 21 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 21 21 S 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 21 21 SE 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 22 22 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 22 22 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 21 21 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 20 20 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 20 20 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 19 19 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 19 19 E 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 19 19 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 19 19 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 19 19 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 19 19 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 19 19 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 18 18 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 18 18 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 18 18 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 20 20 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 21 21 N 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 22 22 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 23 23 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 24 24 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 25 25 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 25 25 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 25 25 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 24 24 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 22 22 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 21 21 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 21 21 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 21 21 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 20 20 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 19 19 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 19 19 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 22 22 N 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 23 23 N 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 25 26 N 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 27 N 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 27 28 N 14 2498 2388 38 White 1
2 PM Thu 28 29 N 14 2716 2388 38 White 2
3 PM Thu 28 28 N 14 2498 2388 38 White 1
4 PM Thu 27 27 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 25 25 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 20 20 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 18 18 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 19 19 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 18 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 17 17 N 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com