Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 33 33 SE 5 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 35 35 S 5 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 35 35 SE 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 35 35 SE 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 38 38 SE 3 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 39 39 SE 1 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 44 44 S 2 3043 2865 1035 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 47 48 S 2 3629 3094 1264 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 48 48 SW 2 3629 3094 1264 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 47 47 S 3 3206 3040 1210 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 47 47 S 5 3206 3040 1210 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 41 41 SE 9 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 39 39 SE 9 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 38 38 SE 12 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 38 38 SE 12 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 39 39 SE 12 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 39 39 S 15 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 39 39 S 15 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 15 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 24 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 24 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 24 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 15 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 15 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 39 39 S 15 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 41 41 SW 15 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 38 38 SW 15 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 38 38 SW 15 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 39 39 SW 13 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 42 42 SW 13 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 43 43 SW 13 2989 2796 966 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 43 43 SW 13 2989 2796 966 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 42 42 SW 13 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 41 41 SW 9 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 40 40 SW 9 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 38 38 W 2 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 2 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 2 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 37 37 SE 2 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 36 36 SE 2 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SE 2 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 5 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 33 33 NE 6 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 32 32 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 NE 6 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 36 36 NE 9 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 39 39 NE 9 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 41 42 NE 9 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 42 43 NE 9 2989 2796 966 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 42 42 NE 9 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 41 41 NE 9 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 39 39 NE 10 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 37 37 NE 10 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 35 35 NE 10 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 34 34 N 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 33 33 N 6 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 33 33 N 6 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 33 33 E 17 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 32 32 E 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 E 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 E 21 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 33 33 E 21 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 33 33 E 21 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 34 34 E 21 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 33 33 E 21 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 33 33 E 21 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 33 33 E 7 2416 2388 558 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 39 40 E 7 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 41 42 E 7 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 42 43 E 6 2989 2796 966 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 42 42 E 6 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 40 40 E 7 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 39 39 E 7 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 37 37 E 7 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 36 36 E 6 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 E 7 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 37 37 E 6 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 39 39 E 6 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 41 41 E 6 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 2935 2727 897 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 40 40 E 5 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 39 39 NE 5 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 38 38 NE 5 2661 2478 648 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 37 37 NE 5 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 36 36 E 5 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 36 36 E 5 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 36 36 E 5 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 6 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 36 36 E 6 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 34 34 E 6 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 34 34 E 5 2447 2388 558 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 35 35 E 5 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 36 36 E 5 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 37 37 E 5 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 39 39 E 5 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 40 40 E 5 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 2868 2658 828 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 40 40 E 5 2799 2589 759 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 39 39 E 5 2730 2521 691 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 2592 2446 616 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 36 36 E 6 2523 2415 585 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 35 35 E 6 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 2479 2388 558 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com