Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 44 44 S 15 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 43 43 S 15 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 43 43 S 15 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 44 44 S 16 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 45 45 S 16 2942 2664 834 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 46 46 S 16 3064 2705 875 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 45 45 S 13 2942 2664 834 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 46 46 S 13 3064 2705 875 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 46 46 S 13 3064 2705 875 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 45 45 S 10 2942 2664 834 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 44 44 S 10 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 43 43 S 10 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 42 42 S 14 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 42 42 S 14 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 42 42 S 14 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 41 41 S 10 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 41 41 S 10 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 10 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 41 41 S 12 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 41 41 S 12 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 40 40 S 12 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 42 42 S 14 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 41 41 S 13 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 41 41 S 13 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 41 41 S 13 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 42 42 S 13 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 43 43 S 13 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 44 44 S 13 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 43 43 S 13 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 44 44 S 13 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 44 44 S 13 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 44 44 S 13 2819 2622 792 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 13 2706 2581 751 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 41 41 S 13 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 41 41 S 13 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 40 40 S 13 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 39 39 S 13 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 40 40 SW 12 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 40 40 SW 12 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 40 40 SW 12 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 40 40 SW 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 40 40 SW 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 41 41 SW 10 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 2664 2539 709 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 41 41 SW 7 2622 2498 668 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 40 40 SW 7 2581 2456 626 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 39 39 SW 7 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 39 39 SW 7 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 39 39 SW 7 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 39 39 SW 7 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 S 9 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 39 39 S 12 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 38 38 S 12 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 37 37 S 12 2456 2398 568 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 36 36 S 12 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 12 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 36 36 S 12 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 36 36 SE 3 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 36 36 SE 3 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SE 3 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 35 35 SE 3 0 2398 568 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SE 3 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 35 35 SE 3 0 2398 568 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 2456 2398 568 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 2456 2398 568 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 38 38 S 10 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 39 39 S 10 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 38 38 S 10 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 39 39 S 10 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 39 39 S 10 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 39 39 SE 14 2539 2415 585 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 38 38 SE 14 2498 2398 568 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 37 37 SE 14 2456 2398 568 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 36 36 SE 14 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 36 36 SE 14 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 36 36 SE 14 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 36 36 SE 13 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 36 36 SE 13 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 SE 13 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 35 35 SE 13 0 2398 568 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SE 13 2415 2398 568 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 35 35 SE 13 0 2398 568 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com