Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 2068 2068 238 White 0
10 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 2414 2397 567 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 63 68 N 7 2691 2515 685 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 65 71 N 7 2872 2688 858 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 66 72 N 7 2917 2748 918 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 67 73 NW 8 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 68 73 NW 8 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 69 73 NW 8 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 68 71 N 8 2872 2688 858 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 67 68 N 8 2691 2515 685 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 65 65 N 8 2516 2426 596 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 64 64 NE 9 2486 2414 584 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 61 61 NE 9 2414 2397 567 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 58 58 NE 9 2068 2068 238 White 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 NE 9 1624 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NE 9 1624 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 9 1402 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NE 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NE 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 NE 6 1624 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 NE 6 2414 2397 567 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 67 NE 6 2630 2485 655 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 65 70 NW 6 2811 2628 798 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 67 73 NW 6 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 69 75 NW 6 3045 2915 1085 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 70 76 NW 7 3088 2957 1127 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 71 76 NW 7 3088 2957 1127 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 72 76 NW 7 3088 2957 1127 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 70 72 N 8 2917 2748 918 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 70 71 N 8 2872 2688 858 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 2691 2515 685 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 66 66 N 8 2570 2455 625 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 62 62 N 8 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 60 60 N 8 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 58 58 NE 8 2068 2068 238 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NE 8 1846 1846 16 White 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 8 1624 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 8 1402 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NE 8 1402 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 8 1402 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 1624 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 N 5 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 62 63 N 5 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 64 68 NW 6 2691 2515 685 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 66 71 NW 6 2872 2688 858 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 67 72 NW 6 2917 2748 918 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 68 73 NW 6 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 69 73 NW 6 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 70 73 NW 6 2960 2808 978 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 69 71 N 8 2872 2688 858 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 68 69 N 8 2751 2568 738 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 2570 2455 625 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 65 65 N 8 2516 2426 596 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 8 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 8 2289 2289 459 White 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 NE 9 1846 1846 16 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NE 9 1846 1846 16 White 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 1624 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 1402 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 1402 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 1402 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 7 1402 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 NE 7 1846 1846 16 White 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 NE 7 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 60 63 NE 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 61 64 NE 3 2486 2414 584 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 62 65 NE 3 2516 2426 596 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 62 65 NE 3 2516 2426 596 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 63 66 NE 3 2570 2455 625 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 63 65 NE 3 2516 2426 596 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 62 63 N 5 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 61 62 N 5 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 5 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 2289 2289 459 White 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 1624 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 1 1846 1846 16 White 0
11 AM Wed 58 59 W 3 2289 2289 459 White 0
12 Noon Wed 59 61 W 3 2414 2397 567 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 60 62 W 3 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 61 63 W 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 62 63 W 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 62 63 W 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 61 62 N 8 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 60 60 N 8 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 8 2289 2289 459 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 2068 2068 238 White 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 N 8 1402 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 SW 3 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 56 56 SW 3 1624 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 57 58 NW 3 2068 2068 238 White 0
12 Noon Thu 59 61 NW 3 2414 2397 567 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 60 62 NW 3 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 61 63 NW 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 62 63 NW 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 62 63 NW 3 2456 2408 578 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 61 62 N 7 2427 2403 573 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 60 60 N 7 2408 2391 561 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 7 2289 2289 459 White 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 N 7 2068 2068 238 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 1402 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 N 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com