Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NE 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 NE 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 1 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 N 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 49 N 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 52 N 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 55 NNW 6 9 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 53 57 NNW 6 9 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 55 58 NNW 6 9 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 56 59 NNW 6 9 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 59 61 NNW 5 8 4751 3417 1587 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 6 9 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 4 6 4751 3417 1587 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 3 4 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 57 57 NNE 4 6 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 4 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 54 54 SE 4 6 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 53 53 SSE 8 11 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SSE 8 11 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 52 52 SSE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SE 9 12 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 51 51 SE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 S 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 S 9 12 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 53 53 S 9 12 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 54 54 S 12 17 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 55 55 S 12 17 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 56 S 12 17 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 57 57 S 18 25 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 58 58 S 18 25 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 59 59 S 18 25 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 60 60 S 18 25 4176 3239 1409 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 60 60 S 18 25 4176 3239 1409 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 59 59 S 18 25 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 19 27 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 56 56 SSW 19 27 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 55 55 SSW 19 27 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 55 55 SW 18 27 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 18 27 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 18 27 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 54 54 S 10 14 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 54 54 S 10 14 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 10 14 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 53 53 S 11 19 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 11 19 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 11 19 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 11 16 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 11 16 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 55 55 SW 12 19 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 55 55 SW 12 19 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 56 56 SW 12 19 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 57 57 S 11 19 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 57 57 S 11 19 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 58 58 S 11 19 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 8 18 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 8 18 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 8 18 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 55 55 S 6 11 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 53 53 S 6 11 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 52 52 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 SSE 8 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SSE 8 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 8 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 51 SSE 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 52 SSW 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 52 SSW 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 53 SSW 5 9 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 6 11 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 6 11 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 6 11 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 6 11 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 6 11 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 6 11 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 53 53 SSW 4 9 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 52 52 SSW 4 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SSW 4 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 S 6 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 S 5 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 S 5 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 52 S 5 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 5 10 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 54 54 SSW 5 10 2712 2388 558 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 55 56 SSW 5 10 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 56 57 WSW 5 9 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 56 57 WSW 5 9 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 58 59 WSW 5 9 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 58 58 W 3 5 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 3 5 3429 2882 1052 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 3 5 2892 2388 558 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 53 53 E 2 4 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 51 51 E 2 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 2 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 E 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 E 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 N 5 9 2532 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 5 9 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 55 57 N 5 9 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 57 59 NNW 5 10 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 58 59 NNW 5 10 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 60 61 NNW 5 10 4751 3417 1587 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 61 61 N 5 10 4751 3417 1587 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 10 5366 3761 1931 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 10 3792 3061 1231 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 57 57 NE 4 6 3250 2704 874 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 4 6 3071 2525 695 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 55 55 NE 4 6 2892 2388 558 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com