Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 46 46 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 45 45 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 45 45 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 46 46 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 S 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 S 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 S 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 SW 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 SW 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SE 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 SE 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 SE 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SE 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 45 45 SE 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 46 46 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 46 46 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 46 46 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 46 46 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 SE 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 S 12 1734 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 50 50 S 16 1734 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 51 51 S 16 1952 1952 122 White 0
1 PM Mon 51 51 S 16 1952 1952 122 White 0
2 PM Mon 51 51 S 16 1952 1952 122 White 0
3 PM Mon 51 51 S 16 1952 1952 122 White 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 S 16 2168 2168 338 White 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 S 18 2168 2168 338 White 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 S 18 1952 1952 122 White 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 S 18 1734 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 S 18 1517 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 S 18 1517 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 18 1517 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 S 16 1517 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 S 16 1734 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 S 16 1952 1952 122 White 0
11 AM Tue 51 51 S 14 1952 1952 122 White 0
12 Noon Tue 51 51 S 14 1952 1952 122 White 0
1 PM Tue 51 51 S 14 1952 1952 122 White 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 S 14 2168 2168 338 White 0
3 PM Tue 52 52 S 14 2168 2168 338 White 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 S 14 2168 2168 338 White 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 SW 13 1952 1952 122 White 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 SW 13 1734 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 48 48 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 6 1342 1830 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com