Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 34 34 E 8 2542 2388 558 White 3
5 AM Sat 34 34 E 8 2542 2388 558 White 3
6 AM Sat 34 34 E 8 2542 2388 558 White 3
7 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 2542 2388 558 White 3
8 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 2542 2388 558 White 3
9 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 2542 2388 558 White 3
10 AM Sat 36 36 S 9 2974 2974 1144 White 5
11 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 3189 3189 1359 White 6
12 Noon Sat 37 37 S 9 3189 3189 1359 White 6
1 PM Sat 37 37 S 7 3189 3189 1359 White 6
2 PM Sat 36 36 S 7 2974 2974 1144 White 5
3 PM Sat 36 36 S 7 2974 2974 1144 White 5
4 PM Sat 35 35 SW 5 2758 2758 928 White 4
5 PM Sat 34 34 SW 5 2542 2388 558 White 3
6 PM Sat 34 34 SW 5 2542 2388 558 White 3
7 PM Sat 33 33 SE 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 SE 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 SE 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 E 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 E 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 5 2327 2327 497 White 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 2112 2112 282 White 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SE 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 2112 2112 282 White 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 N 2 2327 2327 497 White 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 N 2 2327 2327 497 White 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 N 2 2327 2327 497 White 0
10 AM Sun 34 34 N 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
11 AM Sun 35 35 N 7 2758 2758 928 White 4
12 Noon Sun 35 36 N 7 2974 2974 1144 White 5
1 PM Sun 34 34 N 8 2542 2388 558 White 3
2 PM Sun 33 33 N 8 2327 2327 497 White 0
3 PM Sun 33 33 N 8 2327 2327 497 White 0
4 PM Sun 32 32 N 8 2112 2112 282 White 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 31 32 S 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
11 AM Mon 33 34 S 6 2542 2388 558 White 3
12 Noon Mon 33 34 S 6 2542 2388 558 White 3
1 PM Mon 34 35 S 6 2758 2758 928 White 4
2 PM Mon 34 35 S 6 2758 2758 928 White 4
3 PM Mon 33 33 S 6 2327 2327 497 White 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 SE 6 2327 2327 497 White 0
5 PM Mon 32 32 SE 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 SE 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 SE 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 SE 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 SE 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 SE 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 S 3 1896 1896 66 White 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 S 3 1896 1896 66 White 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 S 3 1896 1896 66 White 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 S 3 2112 2112 282 White 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 S 3 2112 2112 282 White 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 S 3 2112 2112 282 White 0
10 AM Tue 34 34 S 9 2542 2388 558 White 3
11 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 2758 2758 928 White 4
12 Noon Tue 35 35 S 9 2758 2758 928 White 4
1 PM Tue 36 36 S 9 2974 2974 1144 White 5
2 PM Tue 36 36 S 9 2974 2974 1144 White 5
3 PM Tue 35 35 S 9 2758 2758 928 White 4
4 PM Tue 35 35 SW 7 2758 2758 928 White 4
5 PM Tue 34 34 SW 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
6 PM Tue 34 34 SW 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
7 PM Tue 34 34 SW 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
8 PM Tue 34 34 SW 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
9 PM Tue 33 33 SW 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 S 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
1 AM Wed 33 33 S 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 S 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
4 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
5 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
6 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
7 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
8 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
9 AM Wed 34 34 S 7 2542 2388 558 White 3
10 AM Wed 36 36 W 3 2974 2974 1144 White 5
11 AM Wed 37 37 W 3 3189 3189 1359 White 6
12 Noon Wed 37 37 W 3 3189 3189 1359 White 6
1 PM Wed 36 36 W 3 2974 2974 1144 White 5
2 PM Wed 36 36 W 3 2974 2974 1144 White 5
3 PM Wed 35 35 W 3 2758 2758 928 White 4
4 PM Wed 34 34 N 2 2542 2388 558 White 3
5 PM Wed 33 33 N 2 2327 2327 497 White 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 N 2 2112 2112 282 White 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 N 2 2112 2112 282 White 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 N 2 1896 1896 66 White 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 N 2 1896 1896 66 White 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 E 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 E 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 E 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 1896 1896 66 White 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 1896 1896 66 White 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 7 2112 2112 282 White 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 E 7 2112 2112 282 White 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 E 7 2327 2327 497 White 0
10 AM Thu 35 35 NE 2 2758 2758 928 White 4
11 AM Thu 36 37 NE 2 3189 3189 1359 White 6
12 Noon Thu 37 38 NE 2 3404 3404 1574 White 6
1 PM Thu 37 38 NE 2 3404 3404 1574 White 6
2 PM Thu 36 36 NE 2 2974 2974 1144 White 5
3 PM Thu 36 36 NE 2 2974 2974 1144 White 5
4 PM Thu 35 35 N 1 2758 2758 928 White 4
5 PM Thu 33 33 N 1 2327 2327 497 White 0
6 PM Thu 33 33 N 1 2327 2327 497 White 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 N 1 2112 2112 282 White 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 N 1 2112 2112 282 White 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 N 1 1896 1896 66 White 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 SE 8 1896 1896 66 White 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 SE 8 2112 2112 282 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 SE 8 2112 2112 282 White 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 SE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com