Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 NW 2 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 63 64 NW 2 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 66 68 NW 2 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 68 72 NW 6 2522 2454 624 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 70 75 NW 6 2675 2520 690 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 72 77 NW 6 2877 2622 792 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 73 78 NW 7 2987 2673 843 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 76 80 NW 7 3207 2872 1042 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 77 80 NW 7 3207 2872 1042 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 76 78 N 6 2987 2673 843 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 76 77 N 6 2877 2622 792 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 74 74 N 6 2624 2475 645 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 71 71 N 6 2476 2443 613 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 66 66 N 6 2421 2405 575 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 65 65 NE 5 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NE 5 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 63 63 NE 5 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 2 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 61 61 N 2 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 60 60 N 2 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 60 60 E 1 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 60 60 E 1 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 N 1 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 64 65 N 1 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 67 70 N 1 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 70 74 NW 5 2624 2475 645 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 72 77 NW 5 2877 2622 792 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 74 80 NW 5 3207 2872 1042 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 76 82 N 7 3530 3091 1261 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 78 83 N 7 3708 3200 1370 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 80 84 N 7 3886 3340 1510 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 79 81 N 8 3351 2981 1151 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 79 80 N 8 3207 2872 1042 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 76 76 N 8 2767 2571 741 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 74 74 N 7 2624 2475 645 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 71 71 N 7 2476 2443 613 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 69 69 N 7 2454 2421 591 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 67 67 E 5 2432 2410 580 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 E 5 2421 2405 575 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 65 65 E 5 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 64 64 E 6 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 7 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 66 67 E 6 2432 2410 580 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 69 72 E 6 2522 2454 624 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 72 76 N 6 2767 2571 741 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 74 79 N 6 3097 2762 932 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 76 82 N 6 3530 3091 1261 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 78 84 NW 7 3886 3340 1510 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 80 85 NW 7 4112 3517 1687 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 82 86 NW 7 4398 3695 1865 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 81 83 N 7 3708 3200 1370 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 81 82 N 7 3530 3091 1261 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 78 78 N 7 2987 2673 843 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 76 76 N 6 2767 2571 741 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 2522 2454 624 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 70 70 N 6 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 69 69 E 3 2454 2421 591 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 E 3 2432 2410 580 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 66 66 E 3 2421 2405 575 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 62 62 SE 3 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 67 68 SE 3 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 70 72 SE 3 2522 2454 624 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 72 75 W 5 2675 2520 690 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 74 78 W 5 2987 2673 843 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 76 80 W 5 3207 2872 1042 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 77 81 W 5 3351 2981 1151 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 80 83 W 5 3708 3200 1370 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 81 83 W 5 3708 3200 1370 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 80 81 NW 5 3351 2981 1151 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 79 79 NW 5 3097 2762 932 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 77 77 NW 5 2877 2622 792 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 5 2573 2464 634 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 2405 2391 561 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 S 5 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 60 S 6 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 62 64 NW 5 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 64 66 NW 5 2421 2405 575 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 66 69 NW 5 2454 2421 591 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 66 69 NW 5 2454 2421 591 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 68 70 NW 5 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 69 71 NW 5 2476 2443 613 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 69 70 NW 5 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 68 68 NW 5 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 2432 2410 580 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 2415 2401 571 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 5 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 60 60 NW 0 2392 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 0 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 NW 0 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 0 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 0 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 0 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 SW 3 2401 2388 558 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 62 64 SW 5 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 64 67 SW 5 2432 2410 580 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 66 69 SW 5 2454 2421 591 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 67 70 SW 5 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 68 71 SW 5 2476 2443 613 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 69 71 SW 5 2476 2443 613 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 69 70 SW 3 2465 2432 602 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 68 68 SW 3 2443 2415 585 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 66 66 SW 3 2421 2405 575 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 3 2410 2396 566 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 61 61 SW 3 2396 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com