Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 45 45 S 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 45 45 S 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 13 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 13 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 45 45 SE 13 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 16 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 47 47 S 16 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 48 48 S 16 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 49 49 S 17 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 48 48 S 17 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 46 46 S 17 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 43 43 S 28 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 28 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 S 28 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 SW 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 SW 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 S 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 S 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 S 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 S 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 S 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 43 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 44 SE 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 44 44 SE 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 44 44 SE 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 43 43 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SE 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 SE 16 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 46 46 SE 16 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 47 47 SE 16 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 48 48 SE 16 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 48 48 SE 16 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 47 47 SE 16 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 45 45 SE 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 45 45 SE 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 44 44 SE 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 44 SE 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 44 44 SE 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 44 44 SE 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 44 44 S 10 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 44 44 S 10 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 S 10 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 45 45 S 10 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 45 45 S 10 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 43 43 S 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 43 43 S 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 46 46 S 10 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 48 48 S 10 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 47 47 SE 9 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 46 46 SE 14 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 47 47 SE 14 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SE 14 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 47 47 SE 14 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 47 47 SE 14 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 47 47 SE 14 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 46 46 SE 15 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 15 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 15 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 15 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 47 47 SE 15 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 47 47 SE 15 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 48 48 S 20 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 49 49 S 20 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 50 50 S 20 3642 3267 1437 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 50 50 S 20 3642 3267 1437 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 50 50 S 20 3642 3267 1437 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 50 50 S 20 3642 3267 1437 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 49 49 SW 18 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 49 49 SW 18 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 48 48 SW 18 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 48 48 SW 18 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 48 48 SW 18 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 48 48 SW 18 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 49 49 S 14 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 12 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 14 3583 3042 1212 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 48 48 S 14 3508 2816 986 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 3282 2586 756 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 46 46 SE 12 3054 2388 558 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 44 44 S 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 S 14 2598 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 45 45 S 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 45 45 S 14 2826 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 46 46 S 14 3054 2388 558 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com