Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 S 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 S 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 S 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 S 8 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 62 64 S 8 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 63 65 S 8 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 63 65 SW 8 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 64 66 SW 8 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 65 66 SW 8 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 62 62 NE 9 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 59 59 NE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 58 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 NE 7 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 62 64 NE 7 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 62 65 N 8 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 63 66 N 8 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 64 66 N 8 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 64 65 N 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 N 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 64 NW 9 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 63 68 NW 9 2833 2648 818 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 64 69 NW 9 2894 2709 879 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 65 71 NW 9 3016 2830 1000 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 66 71 NW 9 3016 2830 1000 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 68 71 NW 9 3016 2830 1000 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 68 70 N 8 2955 2769 939 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 68 69 N 8 2894 2709 879 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 8 2772 2587 757 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 8 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 66 NE 6 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 65 69 N 7 2894 2709 879 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 70 75 N 7 3261 3074 1244 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 71 77 N 7 3383 3196 1366 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 73 79 N 7 4277 3318 1488 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 75 80 N 7 4500 3379 1549 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 77 80 N 7 4500 3379 1549 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 77 79 N 6 4277 3318 1488 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 78 79 N 6 4277 3318 1488 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 77 77 N 6 3383 3196 1366 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 3077 2891 1061 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 6 2833 2648 818 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 64 64 N 6 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 7 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 62 62 E 7 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 7 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 E 7 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 E 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 65 66 E 7 2711 2526 696 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 67 70 E 7 2955 2769 939 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 70 73 NW 6 3138 2952 1122 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 73 77 NW 6 3383 3196 1366 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 75 79 NW 6 4277 3318 1488 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 76 80 NW 6 4500 3379 1549 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 77 81 NW 6 4711 3712 1882 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 80 83 NW 6 6467 4480 2650 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 79 80 N 6 4500 3379 1549 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 80 80 N 6 4500 3379 1549 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 78 78 N 6 3748 3257 1427 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 6 3138 2952 1122 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 6 2833 2648 818 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 65 65 N 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 65 65 N 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 N 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 6 2589 2399 569 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 62 62 E 6 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 E 6 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 64 65 E 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 66 68 E 6 2833 2648 818 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 67 70 W 6 2955 2769 939 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 70 74 W 6 3199 3013 1183 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 71 75 W 6 3261 3074 1244 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 72 76 W 6 3322 3135 1305 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 73 76 W 6 3322 3135 1305 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 75 77 W 6 3383 3196 1366 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 6 3322 3135 1305 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 6 3261 3074 1244 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 6 3199 3013 1183 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 2894 2709 879 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 2650 2465 635 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 62 62 SE 6 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SE 6 2467 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 61 61 SE 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SE 6 2401 2388 558 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com