Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 40 40 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 41 41 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 42 42 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 SW 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 SW 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 S 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 44 44 S 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 45 45 SW 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 46 46 SW 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 SW 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 SW 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 SW 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 SW 5 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 S 9 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 43 43 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 44 44 S 16 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 47 47 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 20 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 10 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 SW 2 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 42 42 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 43 43 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 NW 1 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SE 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 E 8 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SE 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 43 43 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 45 45 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 47 47 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 49 49 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 51 51 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 SE 17 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 S 12 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 50 50 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 51 51 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 52 52 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 S 7 1342 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 13 1342 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 S 14 1342 1830 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com