Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 S 8 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 59 59 S 8 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 60 60 S 8 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 62 63 SW 6 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 65 67 SW 6 3118 2893 1063 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 68 71 SW 6 3414 3188 1358 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 70 74 SW 7 5854 3410 1580 White 17
12 Noon Tue 72 77 SW 7 6493 6493 4663 White 20
1 PM Tue 75 80 SW 7 7119 7119 5289 White 23
2 PM Tue 76 81 W 6 7327 7327 5497 White 24
3 PM Tue 76 80 W 6 7119 7119 5289 White 23
4 PM Tue 78 81 W 6 7327 7327 5497 White 24
5 PM Tue 78 79 W 5 6911 6911 5081 White 22
6 PM Tue 77 78 W 5 6702 6702 4872 White 21
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 6068 3996 2166 White 18
8 PM Tue 73 73 NE 6 5639 3336 1506 White 16
9 PM Tue 71 71 NE 6 3414 3188 1358 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 69 69 NE 6 3266 3040 1210 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 68 68 E 5 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 5 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 64 64 SE 5 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 64 64 SE 5 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 69 70 W 2 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 72 74 W 2 5854 3410 1580 White 17
11 AM Wed 74 77 W 6 6493 6493 4663 White 20
12 Noon Wed 76 79 W 6 6911 6911 5081 White 22
1 PM Wed 79 82 W 6 7535 7535 5705 White 25
2 PM Wed 79 82 W 6 7535 7535 5705 White 25
3 PM Wed 80 83 W 6 7742 7742 5912 White 26
4 PM Wed 81 83 W 6 7742 7742 5912 White 26
5 PM Wed 80 82 W 3 7535 7535 5705 White 25
6 PM Wed 80 81 W 3 7327 7327 5497 White 24
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 3 6493 6493 4663 White 20
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 8 5639 3336 1506 White 16
9 PM Wed 70 70 N 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 67 67 N 8 3118 2893 1063 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 5 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 2675 2452 622 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 60 60 S 8 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 8 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 8 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 10 2336 2336 506 White 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 10 2112 2112 282 White 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 10 2336 2336 506 White 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 S 8 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 61 62 S 8 2749 2525 695 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 63 64 S 8 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 64 66 SW 8 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 66 68 SW 8 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 68 70 SW 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 68 70 SW 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 70 SW 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 70 SW 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 8 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 9 2749 2525 695 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 59 59 S 7 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 S 7 2112 2112 282 White 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 S 7 1887 1887 57 White 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 7 1887 1887 57 White 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 S 7 2336 2336 506 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 S 7 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 60 62 SW 3 2749 2525 695 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 62 64 SW 3 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 64 66 SW 3 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 64 66 SW 3 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 64 66 SW 3 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 65 66 SW 3 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 65 66 N 5 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 65 65 N 5 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 61 61 N 5 2675 2452 622 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 2112 2112 282 White 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 1887 1887 57 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 E 1 2336 2336 506 White 0
10 AM Sat 59 61 E 1 2675 2452 622 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 61 64 NW 1 2897 2672 842 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 63 66 NW 1 3044 2819 989 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 65 68 NW 1 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 66 69 NW 1 3266 3040 1210 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 66 69 NW 1 3266 3040 1210 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 67 69 NW 1 3266 3040 1210 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 67 69 N 6 3266 3040 1210 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 67 68 N 6 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 65 65 N 6 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 6 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 6 2675 2452 622 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 2528 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 58 58 NE 5 2336 2336 506 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NE 5 1887 1887 57 White 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 57 N 3 2112 2112 282 White 0
9 AM Sun 58 60 N 3 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 61 65 N 3 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 62 67 N 7 3118 2893 1063 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 64 70 N 7 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 66 72 N 7 4079 3262 1432 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 67 73 N 7 5639 3336 1506 White 16
3 PM Sun 67 72 N 7 4079 3262 1432 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 68 72 N 7 4079 3262 1432 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 68 70 N 7 3340 3114 1284 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 67 68 N 7 3192 2967 1137 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 65 65 N 7 2971 2746 916 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 63 63 N 7 2823 2599 769 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 7 2601 2388 558 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 2336 2336 506 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 6 2112 2112 282 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com