Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 39 39 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 S 3 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 44 44 S 3 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 45 45 S 3 2616 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 46 46 W 1 2725 2426 596 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 47 47 W 1 2833 2470 640 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 46 46 W 1 2725 2426 596 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 44 44 SE 6 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 42 42 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 SE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 SE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 SE 8 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 43 43 SE 8 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 43 43 SE 8 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 43 43 SE 8 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 42 42 SE 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 SE 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 44 44 SE 9 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 45 45 SE 9 2616 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SE 9 2725 2426 596 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 46 46 SE 10 2725 2426 596 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 46 46 SE 10 2725 2426 596 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 45 45 SE 10 2616 2388 558 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 44 44 SE 10 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 44 44 SE 10 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 43 43 SE 10 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 43 43 SE 9 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 S 7 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 44 44 S 7 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 44 44 S 7 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 44 44 S 7 2472 2388 558 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 43 43 S 7 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 43 43 S 6 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 43 43 S 6 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 NW 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 NE 2 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 43 43 NE 2 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 43 43 NE 2 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 42 42 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 42 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 43 E 3 2428 2388 558 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 42 42 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 41 41 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 40 40 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 SE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 40 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 42 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 42 42 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 42 42 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 41 S 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com