Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 E 6 10 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 10 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 9 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 9 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 59 59 E 6 9 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 60 60 ESE 5 8 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 59 59 ESE 5 8 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 58 58 ESE 5 8 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 60 60 E 3 4 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 63 63 E 3 4 2627 2523 693 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 66 67 E 3 4 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 68 70 N 4 6 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 71 74 N 4 6 3230 3047 1217 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 73 76 N 4 6 4437 3152 1322 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 74 77 NNW 4 6 5272 3205 1375 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 76 78 NNW 4 6 6158 3612 1782 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 76 77 NNW 4 6 5272 3205 1375 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 76 76 N 4 5 4437 3152 1322 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 73 73 N 4 5 3156 2994 1164 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 70 70 N 4 5 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 66 66 E 5 6 2785 2625 795 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 64 64 E 5 6 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 63 63 E 5 6 2627 2523 693 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 62 62 SSE 2 3 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SSE 2 3 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 62 62 SSE 2 3 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 61 61 ESE 2 2 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 61 61 ESE 2 2 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 59 59 ESE 2 2 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 3 5 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 3 5 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 57 57 SSE 3 5 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 4 6 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 62 62 SSE 4 6 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 66 67 SSE 4 6 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 68 70 WNW 3 4 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 70 73 WNW 3 4 3156 2994 1164 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 72 75 WNW 3 4 3642 3100 1270 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 74 77 NNW 4 6 5272 3205 1375 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 76 78 NNW 4 6 6158 3612 1782 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 76 77 NNW 4 6 5272 3205 1375 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 76 76 NNW 3 4 4437 3152 1322 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 74 74 NNW 3 4 3230 3047 1217 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 70 70 NNW 3 4 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 67 67 ENE 3 4 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 65 65 ENE 3 4 2732 2584 754 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 63 63 ENE 3 4 2627 2523 693 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 62 62 SE 4 6 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 SE 4 6 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 61 61 SE 4 6 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 60 60 SE 5 8 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 59 59 SE 5 8 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 59 59 SE 5 8 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 57 57 SE 4 6 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 60 61 SE 4 6 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 63 64 WSW 3 4 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 65 67 WSW 3 4 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 67 69 WSW 3 4 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 69 70 W 3 4 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 70 71 W 3 4 3050 2888 1058 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 71 72 W 3 4 3103 2941 1111 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 71 71 W 3 4 3050 2888 1058 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 3 4 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 4 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 2 3 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 2 3 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 2 3 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 59 59 SSE 4 6 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SSE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 58 58 SSE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 4 6 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 ESE 3 4 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 60 61 NW 3 4 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 62 64 NW 3 4 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 64 66 NW 3 4 2785 2625 795 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 66 68 NW 4 6 2891 2730 900 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 67 69 NW 4 6 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 68 69 NW 4 6 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 68 68 NNW 4 6 2891 2730 900 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 66 NNW 4 6 2785 2625 795 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 64 64 NNW 4 6 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 61 61 N 3 4 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 59 59 N 3 4 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 3 4 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 57 57 NE 4 6 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 NE 4 6 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 58 NE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 61 62 NNW 4 8 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 63 64 NNW 4 8 2680 2554 724 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 65 67 NNW 4 8 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 67 69 NW 5 9 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 69 NW 5 9 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 70 NW 5 9 2997 2836 1006 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 68 68 NNW 5 9 2891 2730 900 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 9 2785 2625 795 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 9 2627 2523 693 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 4 6 2555 2462 632 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 60 60 N 4 6 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 59 59 N 4 6 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 58 58 ENE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 ENE 4 6 2463 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 4 6 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 57 57 E 4 5 2433 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 56 56 E 4 5 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 4 5 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 E 3 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 E 3 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 3 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 3 5 2402 2388 558 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 ENE 3 5 2494 2401 571 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 61 63 NW 3 6 2627 2523 693 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 64 66 NW 3 6 2785 2625 795 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 66 68 NW 3 6 2891 2730 900 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 68 71 NW 4 9 3050 2888 1058 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 69 71 NW 4 9 3050 2888 1058 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 70 71 NW 4 9 3050 2888 1058 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 69 69 NW 4 9 2944 2783 953 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 67 67 NW 4 9 2838 2677 847 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 65 65 NW 4 9 2732 2584 754 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 62 62 NNE 4 6 2586 2493 663 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 60 60 NNE 4 6 2524 2432 602 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 59 59 NNE 4 6 2494 2401 571 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com