Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 57 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 59 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 60 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 61 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 61 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 64 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 N 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 66 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 65 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 66 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 65 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 66 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 70 E 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 73 E 7 6711 6711 4881 White 4
2 PM Wed 70 73 E 7 6711 6711 4881 White 4
3 PM Wed 71 74 E 7 6921 6921 5091 White 5
4 PM Wed 71 73 E 7 6711 6711 4881 White 4
5 PM Wed 71 72 E 8 6500 2388 558 White 3
6 PM Wed 69 69 E 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 E 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 E 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 E 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 SE 15 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 70 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 74 S 5 6921 6921 5091 White 5
1 PM Thu 73 77 S 5 7550 7550 5720 White 8
2 PM Thu 74 77 S 5 7550 7550 5720 White 8
3 PM Thu 75 78 S 5 7759 7759 5929 White 9
4 PM Thu 75 77 S 5 7550 7550 5720 White 8
5 PM Thu 75 76 S 2 7341 7341 5511 White 7
6 PM Thu 72 72 S 2 6500 2388 558 White 3
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 63 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 65 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 58 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 62 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 62 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 61 SW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com