Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 N 7 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 48 49 N 7 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 51 51 NW 7 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 54 54 NW 7 2612 2492 662 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 55 55 NW 7 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 56 56 N 8 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 55 55 SE 8 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 54 54 SE 8 2612 2492 662 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 52 52 SE 8 2522 2442 612 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 2464 2421 591 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 8 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 8 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 9 2412 2389 559 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NE 9 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 45 45 NE 9 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 W 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 W 3 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 47 50 W 3 2464 2421 591 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 49 53 SW 7 2552 2463 633 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 52 57 SW 7 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 53 58 SW 7 3188 2685 855 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 53 57 W 7 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 54 58 W 7 3188 2685 855 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 53 56 W 7 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 52 52 SE 8 2522 2442 612 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 51 51 SE 8 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 47 47 SE 8 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 45 45 SE 8 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 44 44 SE 8 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 43 43 S 7 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 S 7 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 W 7 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 46 47 NW 10 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 48 49 NW 10 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 49 50 NW 10 2464 2421 591 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 49 50 NW 10 2464 2421 591 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 50 51 NW 10 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 49 49 NW 10 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 48 49 SW 8 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 47 47 SW 8 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 45 45 SW 8 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 8 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 S 6 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 46 49 N 8 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 49 53 N 8 2552 2463 633 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 51 55 N 8 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 51 55 N 8 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 53 56 N 8 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 52 54 N 8 2612 2492 662 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 50 51 N 7 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 49 49 N 7 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 2412 2389 559 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 43 43 N 7 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 7 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 E 5 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 46 47 E 5 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 49 51 NE 6 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 52 54 NE 6 2612 2492 662 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 53 56 NE 6 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 54 56 NE 6 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 55 57 NE 6 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 54 55 NE 6 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 52 53 N 10 2552 2463 633 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 2493 2431 601 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 10 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 47 47 N 10 2421 2396 566 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 10 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 10 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 5 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NE 5 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 NE 5 2412 2389 559 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 5 2443 2412 582 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 6 2552 2463 633 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 53 56 N 6 2771 2551 721 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 55 58 N 6 3188 2685 855 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 55 58 N 6 3188 2685 855 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 56 58 N 6 3188 2685 855 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 56 57 N 6 2978 2609 779 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 54 55 N 7 2689 2521 691 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 2522 2442 612 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 2464 2421 591 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 2432 2404 574 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 46 46 N 7 2412 2389 559 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 45 45 N 7 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 45 45 E 3 2405 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 E 3 2397 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 2389 2388 558 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com