Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 35 35 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 35 35 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 35 35 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 34 34 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 35 35 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 37 37 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 41 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 43 43 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 45 45 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 45 45 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 45 45 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 44 44 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 42 42 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 39 39 SSE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 37 37 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 37 37 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 36 36 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 36 36 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 38 38 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 41 41 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 42 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 43 43 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 44 44 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 46 46 S 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 46 46 SSE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 45 45 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 45 45 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 39 39 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 38 38 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 36 36 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 35 35 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 34 34 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 33 33 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 32 32 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 32 32 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 32 32 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 33 33 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 38 38 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 49 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 50 51 SSE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 52 53 SSE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 54 55 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 53 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 52 52 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 52 52 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 50 50 SSE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 49 49 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 42 42 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com