Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 9 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 53 53 SE 9 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 55 56 SE 9 2876 2805 975 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 57 58 SE 6 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 60 62 SE 6 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 63 65 SE 6 4603 3944 2114 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 64 66 W 3 4700 4266 2436 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 65 66 W 3 4700 4266 2436 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 66 67 W 3 4793 4495 2665 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 63 63 E 7 4299 3302 1472 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 62 62 E 7 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 57 57 E 7 2899 2828 998 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 54 54 SE 14 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 52 52 SE 14 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 52 52 SE 14 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 53 53 SE 10 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SE 10 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 53 53 SE 10 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 49 49 SE 9 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 50 50 SE 12 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 12 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 12 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 8 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 53 53 SE 8 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 55 56 SE 8 2876 2805 975 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 57 58 W 2 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 60 62 W 2 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 63 65 W 2 4603 3944 2114 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 64 66 NW 5 4700 4266 2436 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 66 67 NW 5 4793 4495 2665 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 67 68 NW 5 4885 4592 2762 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 4505 3623 1793 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 4299 3302 1472 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 58 58 E 6 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 55 55 E 6 2853 2782 952 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 54 54 SE 5 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SE 5 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 54 54 SE 5 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 53 53 SE 5 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 53 53 SE 5 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 50 50 SE 5 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 51 51 SE 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 52 52 SE 6 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 53 53 SE 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 55 56 SW 5 2876 2805 975 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 56 57 SW 5 2899 2828 998 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 59 61 SW 5 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 59 60 SW 5 3322 2897 1067 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 61 62 SW 5 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 5 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 3180 2874 1044 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 5 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 2853 2782 952 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 53 53 E 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 E 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 53 53 E 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 5 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 55 56 N 5 2876 2805 975 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 56 58 N 5 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 58 60 N 5 3322 2897 1067 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 59 61 N 5 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 60 61 N 5 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 60 61 N 5 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 2899 2828 998 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 6 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 6 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 52 52 E 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 E 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 3 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 2693 2499 669 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 3 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 3 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 53 54 E 3 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 55 57 N 3 2899 2828 998 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 57 59 N 3 3180 2874 1044 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 59 61 N 3 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 60 62 N 3 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 62 64 N 3 4505 3623 1793 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 62 63 N 3 4299 3302 1472 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 60 60 N 3 3322 2897 1067 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 59 59 N 3 3180 2874 1044 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 2876 2805 975 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 5 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 E 5 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 2807 2736 906 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 51 51 E 3 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 3 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 3 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 3 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 3 2853 2782 952 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 55 57 SE 2 2899 2828 998 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 57 59 SE 2 3180 2874 1044 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 59 61 SE 2 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 59 61 SE 2 3648 3042 1212 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 61 63 SE 2 4299 3302 1472 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 61 62 SE 2 3972 3172 1342 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 59 59 SE 3 3180 2874 1044 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 58 58 SE 3 3050 2851 1021 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 54 54 SE 3 2830 2759 929 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 52 52 SE 3 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 51 51 SE 3 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 51 51 SE 3 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 51 51 SE 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SE 6 2784 2690 860 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 2761 2624 794 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 2738 2559 729 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 49 49 SE 6 2693 2499 669 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com