SoaringPredictor for Mt Crested Butte

Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700

Sounding
Station:	KGJT
Date/Time:	11 DEC 2023
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
1 AM Mon	26	26	WNW 3	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	25	25	W 2	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	24	24	WNW 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	24	24	WNW 3	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	23	23	NW 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	15	15	WNW 5	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	18	18	WNW 5	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	21	21	WNW 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	24	24	W 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Mon	27	27	W 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Mon	31	32	W 4	5	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Mon	34	35	W 5	8	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
1 PM Mon	34	35	W 5	9	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
2 PM Mon	35	35	W 6	10	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
3 PM Mon	32	32	W 5	10	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Mon	29	29	NW 5	8	9097	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Mon	24	24	N 5	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Mon	20	20	N 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Mon	19	19	NNE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Mon	17	17	NE 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Mon	15	15	NE 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	15	15	E 2	3	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	14	14	E 2	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	13	13	E 2	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	13	13	E 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	14	14	E 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	14	14	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	13	13	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	14	14	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	12	12	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	13	13	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	15	15	E 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	22	22	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	27	27	ESE 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Tue	30	30	SE 5	8	9204	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Tue	32	32	SE 5	10	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Tue	34	34	SSE 5	10	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
2 PM Tue	35	35	SSE 5	9	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
3 PM Tue	34	34	SE 5	9	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
4 PM Tue	31	31	SE 5	8	9311	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Tue	29	29	ESE 5	8	9097	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Tue	26	26	ESE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	25	25	ESE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	24	24	ESE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	23	23	ESE 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	22	22	ESE 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	22	22	ESE 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	21	21	ESE 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	20	20	ESE 3	3	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	19	19	ESE 3	3	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	18	18	ESE 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	17	17	ESE 3	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	17	17	ESE 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	15	15	ESE 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	15	15	ESE 2	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	18	18	ESE 2	4	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	21	21	ESE 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	25	25	SE 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Wed	29	29	SSE 5	8	9097	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Wed	32	32	SSE 5	9	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Wed	34	34	S 5	9	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
2 PM Wed	34	34	S 5	9	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
3 PM Wed	32	32	SSE 5	9	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Wed	30	30	SE 5	8	9204	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Wed	27	27	ESE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Wed	25	25	ESE 5	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Wed	24	24	ESE 5	9	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	23	23	ESE 5	9	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	22	22	ESE 5	9	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	20	20	E 4	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	20	20	E 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	19	19	E 4	6	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	18	18	E 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	17	17	E 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	17	17	E 4	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	17	17	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	15	15	E 3	5	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	14	14	E 4	8	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	13	13	ENE 5	10	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	14	14	ENE 6	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	18	18	NE 6	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	24	25	NNE 6	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Thu	30	31	N 6	10	9311	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Thu	34	35	N 6	10	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
1 PM Thu	35	36	NNW 8	11	11811	11500	0	Blue	3
2 PM Thu	34	35	NW 8	11	11436	11500	0	Blue	2
3 PM Thu	32	32	NNW 8	11	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Thu	28	28	NNW 8	12	8989	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Thu	25	25	N 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Thu	23	23	N 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	21	21	N 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	20	20	NNE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	18	18	NNE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	18	18	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	17	17	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	15	15	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	15	15	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	14	14	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	13	13	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	12	12	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	12	12	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	10	10	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	10	10	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	13	13	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	18	18	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Fri	25	26	E 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Fri	31	32	E 8	12	9418	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Fri	36	38	ENE 8	12	12546	11500	0	Blue	5
1 PM Fri	38	39	NNE 8	11	12907	11779	279	Blue	6
2 PM Fri	37	38	N 8	11	12546	11500	0	Blue	5
3 PM Fri	34	34	N 8	11	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
4 PM Fri	30	30	N 8	12	9204	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Fri	26	26	N 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	24	24	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	22	22	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	21	21	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	20	20	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	19	19	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	19	19	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	18	18	ENE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	17	17	ENE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	17	17	ENE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	15	15	ENE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	15	15	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	15	15	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	15	15	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	15	15	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	19	19	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	24	24	NNE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	30	31	NW 6	11	9311	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	36	37	W 6	11	12181	11500	0	Blue	4
12 Noon Sat	39	40	W 6	11	13263	12145	645	Blue	7
1 PM Sat	41	42	WNW 6	11	14691	12863	1363	Blue	9
2 PM Sat	40	41	WNW 6	11	13615	12506	1006	Blue	8
3 PM Sat	37	37	NW 6	11	12181	11500	0	Blue	4
4 PM Sat	34	34	NNW 8	11	11056	11500	0	Blue	1
5 PM Sat	30	30	NNW 8	11	9204	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	26	26	N 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	24	24	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	23	23	NNE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	22	22	NE 8	12	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	21	21	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	20	20	NE 8	11	8957	11500	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]