Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 15 15 WSW 5 8 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 13 13 WSW 6 9 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 12 12 WSW 6 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 10 10 WSW 6 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 9 9 WSW 6 12 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 12 12 SW 6 12 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 SW 11 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 SSW 17 23 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 21 28 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 24 25 SSW 23 29 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 26 27 SSW 25 31 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 28 29 SSW 26 32 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 29 30 SSW 27 33 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 29 30 SSW 27 33 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 29 30 SSW 27 34 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 30 31 SSW 28 35 14526 13524 1324 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 30 30 SSW 29 35 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 29 36 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 29 36 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 26 26 SSW 29 36 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 28 36 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 28 37 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 24 24 SW 27 39 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 SW 27 39 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 SW 27 37 11208 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 22 22 SW 27 36 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 21 21 SW 26 35 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 SW 25 33 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 SW 23 29 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 20 20 SW 21 27 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 20 SW 21 27 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 SW 23 28 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 20 20 SW 25 29 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 SW 27 32 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 24 25 SW 29 35 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 25 26 SW 31 37 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 26 27 SW 32 39 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 27 28 SW 32 40 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 27 28 SW 32 40 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 28 29 SW 29 41 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 28 28 SSW 27 41 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 28 28 SSW 26 37 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 27 27 SSW 26 39 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 25 25 SSW 26 39 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 26 39 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 SSW 25 39 11208 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 23 23 SSW 25 37 11208 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 SSW 24 36 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 SSW 23 35 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 20 20 SSW 23 34 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 19 19 SSW 21 33 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 SSW 20 32 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 S 20 31 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 S 20 31 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 S 21 32 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 S 23 34 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 S 25 37 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 23 24 S 27 41 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 27 SSW 29 44 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 27 28 SSW 31 47 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 28 29 SSW 32 48 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 27 28 SSW 32 49 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 27 28 SSW 33 50 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 28 28 SSW 34 52 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 29 29 SSW 35 54 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 30 30 SSW 36 55 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 29 29 SSW 35 52 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 27 27 SSW 34 50 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 26 26 SSW 33 48 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 25 25 SSW 33 48 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 25 25 SSW 33 48 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 25 25 SSW 33 49 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 SSW 33 50 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 SSW 33 51 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 23 23 SSW 34 52 11208 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 23 SSW 36 55 11208 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 S 37 56 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 S 37 55 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 S 34 50 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 S 29 43 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 S 26 39 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 S 25 37 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 25 26 SSW 26 37 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 25 25 SSW 26 39 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 25 25 SSW 26 39 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 25 25 SSW 25 39 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 26 26 SSW 25 37 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 26 26 SW 25 36 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 26 26 SW 24 35 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 25 25 SW 23 34 12968 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 24 24 SW 21 32 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 22 22 SW 19 29 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 SW 18 27 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 19 19 SW 17 25 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 18 18 SW 16 24 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 15 15 SSW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 15 15 SSW 13 19 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 14 14 SSW 12 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 14 14 SSW 11 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 SSW 10 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 SSW 9 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 SSW 9 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 SW 9 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 15 W 9 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 17 17 W 10 14 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 18 18 WNW 11 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 20 21 WNW 11 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 21 21 NW 12 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 21 21 NW 13 19 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 22 22 NW 13 20 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 22 22 NW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 22 22 NW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 22 22 NW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 22 22 NW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 21 21 NW 14 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 20 20 NW 13 21 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 19 19 NW 13 20 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 18 18 NNW 12 19 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 15 15 NNW 12 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 15 15 NNW 11 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 14 14 NNW 11 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 14 14 NNW 11 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 13 13 NNW 11 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 13 13 NNW 11 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 13 13 NW 10 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 14 14 WNW 10 16 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 15 15 NW 10 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 NNW 11 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 18 19 N 11 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 20 22 N 11 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 21 24 NNW 11 18 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 23 27 NNW 11 18 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 25 30 NNW 11 18 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 26 30 NNW 12 19 14205 13277 1077 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 27 31 NNW 12 19 14526 13524 1324 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 27 29 NNW 12 19 13881 13117 917 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 27 28 NNW 13 20 13554 12957 757 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 27 27 NNW 13 20 13290 12348 148 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 26 26 NNW 12 20 13129 12200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 24 24 NW 12 19 12404 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 22 22 NW 11 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 20 N 11 18 10056 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 18 18 NE 11 17 10056 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]