Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
1 AM Mon 24 24 WSW 4 6 10205 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 WSW 4 5 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 20 20 W 3 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 18 18 W 3 5 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 18 18 NW 3 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 8 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 WNW 4 8 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 21 21 WNW 4 8 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 23 23 WNW 5 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 26 26 WNW 5 6 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 28 29 W 5 8 12470 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 30 31 W 6 10 13207 12200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 30 31 WNW 8 10 13207 12200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 30 31 W 8 11 13207 12200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 28 28 W 8 10 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 25 25 W 5 10 10870 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 20 20 WSW 5 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 18 18 SSW 5 8 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 19 19 SSW 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 18 18 SSW 6 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 18 18 S 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 18 18 S 8 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 19 19 SSW 9 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 19 19 S 9 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 20 20 S 10 14 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 20 20 S 11 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 19 19 S 13 18 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 20 20 SSE 14 20 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 S 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 S 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 19 19 S 13 20 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 21 21 S 14 20 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 23 23 S 14 21 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 26 26 S 14 21 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 27 27 S 14 21 11714 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 27 27 S 14 21 11714 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 28 28 S 13 20 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 28 28 S 12 19 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 26 26 S 12 18 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 24 24 S 11 18 10205 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 22 22 SSE 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 11 17 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 10 16 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 10 14 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 10 14 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 19 19 SSE 10 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 18 18 SSE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 19 19 SSE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 9 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 23 23 S 8 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 25 25 S 8 10 10870 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 26 26 S 8 10 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 26 26 S 6 9 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 26 26 SSW 6 9 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 24 24 WSW 6 8 10205 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 23 23 NW 5 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 21 21 N 5 6 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 21 21 NNE 5 8 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 E 6 9 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 21 21 ESE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 21 21 SE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 21 21 SE 5 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 SE 5 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 20 20 SE 5 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 20 20 SSE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 20 20 SSE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 SSE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 SE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 18 18 SE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 ESE 6 10 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 15 15 ESE 8 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 15 15 E 8 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 18 18 E 8 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 22 22 NNE 8 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 25 26 N 8 11 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 26 27 N 8 11 11714 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 27 28 N 9 12 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 26 26 NNW 9 12 11328 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 24 24 N 9 12 10205 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 22 22 N 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 20 20 N 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 18 18 NNE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 15 15 NE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 15 15 ENE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 15 15 ENE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 15 15 E 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 15 15 E 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 15 15 E 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 15 15 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 15 15 ESE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 15 ESE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 19 19 E 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 24 25 E 8 12 10870 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 29 E 8 12 12470 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 30 32 NE 8 12 13569 12450 250 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 31 33 N 8 11 14956 12817 617 White 8
2 PM Fri 30 31 NNW 8 11 13207 12200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 28 28 N 8 11 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 25 25 ENE 6 11 10870 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 22 22 E 6 11 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 20 20 E 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 19 ESE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 19 19 ESE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 19 19 ESE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 19 19 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 19 19 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 SE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 SE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 SE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 SE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 ESE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 24 E 8 12 10205 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 28 29 N 8 11 12470 12200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 32 33 NNW 6 11 14956 12817 617 White 8
12 Noon Sat 34 35 NNW 6 11 15398 13536 1336 White 10
1 PM Sat 34 35 NW 8 12 15398 13536 1336 White 10
2 PM Sat 33 34 NW 8 12 15177 13179 979 White 9
3 PM Sat 31 31 N 8 12 13207 12200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 28 28 E 8 11 12095 12200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 25 25 ESE 8 11 10870 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 23 23 SE 8 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 SE 9 12 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 22 22 SE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 SSE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 SSE 9 13 10177 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]