Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 3 4 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 3 4 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 4 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 4 6 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 0 0 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 0 0 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 W 0 0 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 E 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 SSE 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 SSE 5 8 3920 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 60 SSE 6 9 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 59 S 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 59 SSW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 W 6 9 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 W 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 W 6 9 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 WNW 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 WNW 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 4 6 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NW 4 6 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NW 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NW 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 2 3 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 NNW 4 6 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 8 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 NNE 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 NE 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 59 ENE 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 58 ENE 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 ENE 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 E 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 E 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 N 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 NNW 12 17 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 NNW 14 20 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 NNW 18 25 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 NNW 20 28 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 NNW 21 31 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NNW 23 32 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 23 32 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 23 32 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 23 32 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 21 31 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NNW 20 28 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 20 28 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NNW 19 27 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 N 18 25 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 N 18 25 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 N 17 24 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 NNE 16 23 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 59 NNE 14 20 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 58 NNE 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 56 NNE 12 17 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 54 NE 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 NNE 11 16 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 N 12 17 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 N 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 N 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NNW 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 13 19 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 12 17 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 E 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 57 E 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 ESE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 56 ESE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 ESE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 SE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 51 SE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 47 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 NNE 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 N 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 N 8 11 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 NE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 58 ENE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 59 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 58 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 56 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 ENE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 NE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 60 NE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 60 E 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 59 E 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 E 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 55 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 53 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 NNE 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 N 9 12 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 N 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 NNW 10 14 3081 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]