Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 25 34 4294 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 26 37 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 24 36 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 25 36 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 W 28 34 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 W 28 37 2635 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 27 35 2559 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 W 25 33 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 38 W 24 35 5581 5616 0 White 3
9 AM Sun 42 44 WSW 23 34 6901 6901 1285 White 9
10 AM Sun 49 52 WSW 23 35 8638 8638 3022 White 17
11 AM Sun 51 54 WSW 23 35 9069 9069 3453 White 19
12 Noon Sun 52 55 WSW 24 35 9284 9284 3668 White 20
1 PM Sun 51 53 WSW 25 34 8854 8854 3238 White 18
2 PM Sun 51 52 WSW 25 36 8638 8638 3022 White 17
3 PM Sun 50 52 WSW 25 36 8638 8638 3022 White 17
4 PM Sun 50 51 WSW 25 36 8423 8423 2807 White 16
5 PM Sun 47 48 WSW 26 36 7772 7772 2156 White 13
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 25 36 6901 6901 1285 White 9
7 PM Sun 41 41 W 26 36 6245 6245 629 White 6
8 PM Sun 38 38 W 27 37 5581 5616 0 White 3
9 PM Sun 37 37 W 26 34 5359 5616 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 25 33 5136 5616 0 White 1
11 PM Sun 36 36 W 23 29 5136 5616 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 23 29 4913 5616 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 23 29 5136 5616 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 21 28 4913 5616 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 W 21 27 4913 5616 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 W 21 24 4913 5616 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 W 21 23 3496 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 WNW 17 21 4913 5616 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 WNW 14 21 5136 5616 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 42 43 N 18 26 6683 6683 1067 White 8
9 AM Mon 49 51 N 17 25 8423 8423 2807 White 16
10 AM Mon 55 59 N 14 23 10132 10132 4516 White 24
11 AM Mon 59 65 N 13 20 11372 11372 5756 White 30
12 Noon Mon 62 69 ENE 12 19 12191 12191 6575 White 34
1 PM Mon 64 71 SSE 12 18 12598 12598 6982 White 36
2 PM Mon 64 71 S 12 18 12598 12598 6982 White 36
3 PM Mon 65 70 SSW 12 19 12395 12395 6779 White 35
4 PM Mon 64 67 WSW 12 20 11781 11781 6165 White 32
5 PM Mon 63 64 WSW 13 21 11165 11165 5549 White 29
6 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 14 21 10132 10132 4516 White 24
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 16 20 9069 9069 3453 White 19
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 16 19 8206 8206 2590 White 15
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 18 7990 7990 2374 White 14
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 11 16 7772 7772 2156 White 13
11 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 10 14 7772 7772 2156 White 13
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 WNW 10 14 7556 7556 1940 White 12
1 AM Tue 46 46 WNW 11 14 7337 7337 1721 White 11
2 AM Tue 45 45 WNW 13 16 7120 7120 1504 White 10
3 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 18 19 6901 6901 1285 White 9
4 AM Tue 44 44 NW 21 23 6901 6901 1285 White 9
5 AM Tue 44 44 NW 21 23 6901 6901 1285 White 9
6 AM Tue 46 46 NW 17 18 7337 7337 1721 White 11
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNW 13 14 7772 7772 2156 White 13
8 AM Tue 52 53 NNW 11 12 8854 8854 3238 White 18
9 AM Tue 57 59 N 10 12 10132 10132 4516 White 24
10 AM Tue 63 67 E 10 13 11781 11781 6165 White 32
11 AM Tue 68 74 ESE 10 16 13198 13198 7582 White 39
12 Noon Tue 71 78 SE 11 18 13992 13992 8376 White 43
1 PM Tue 73 80 S 12 20 14386 14386 8770 White 45
2 PM Tue 73 80 SSW 14 23 14386 14386 8770 White 45
3 PM Tue 74 79 SW 16 25 14190 14190 8574 White 44
4 PM Tue 74 77 SW 18 26 13794 13794 8178 White 42
5 PM Tue 72 73 WSW 19 27 12999 12999 7383 White 38
6 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 21 28 11781 11781 6165 White 32
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 23 28 10754 10754 5138 White 27
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 23 27 9713 9713 4097 White 22
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 20 25 9284 9284 3668 White 20
10 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 17 23 9069 9069 3453 White 19
11 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 14 21 8854 8854 3238 White 18
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 WNW 17 21 8638 8638 3022 White 17
1 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 20 23 8206 8206 2590 White 15
2 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 21 23 7990 7990 2374 White 14
3 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 18 20 7772 7772 2156 White 13
4 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 13 18 7556 7556 1940 White 12
5 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 10 16 7772 7772 2156 White 13
6 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 9 14 7990 7990 2374 White 14
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 9 13 8638 8638 3022 White 17
8 AM Wed 56 57 NW 10 13 9713 9713 4097 White 22
9 AM Wed 62 64 W 10 13 11165 11165 5549 White 29
10 AM Wed 68 72 SSW 10 14 12799 12799 7183 White 37
11 AM Wed 74 80 SSE 10 16 14386 14386 8770 White 45
12 Noon Wed 76 83 S 11 17 14977 14977 9361 White 48
1 PM Wed 77 84 S 12 18 15172 15172 9556 White 49
2 PM Wed 77 83 S 13 19 14977 14977 9361 White 48
3 PM Wed 77 81 S 14 20 14584 14584 8968 White 46
4 PM Wed 77 79 SSW 16 21 14190 14190 8574 White 44
5 PM Wed 75 76 SSW 16 23 13596 13596 7980 White 41
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 16 23 12598 12598 6982 White 36
7 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 14 21 11372 11372 5756 White 30
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 13 20 10340 10340 4724 White 25
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 13 19 9925 9925 4309 White 23
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 19 9713 9713 4097 White 22
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 18 9499 9499 3883 White 21
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 12 17 9284 9284 3668 White 20
1 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 11 17 9069 9069 3453 White 19
2 AM Thu 53 53 WNW 11 16 8854 8854 3238 White 18
3 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 11 16 8638 8638 3022 White 17
4 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 11 14 8423 8423 2807 White 16
5 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 11 14 8423 8423 2807 White 16
6 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 11 14 8638 8638 3022 White 17
7 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 10 13 9284 9284 3668 White 20
8 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 10 13 10132 10132 4516 White 24
9 AM Thu 64 65 W 10 13 11372 11372 5756 White 30
10 AM Thu 70 73 SSW 10 14 12999 12999 7383 White 38
11 AM Thu 75 79 SSE 10 16 14190 14190 8574 White 44
12 Noon Thu 78 83 S 11 17 14977 14977 9361 White 48
1 PM Thu 79 84 S 12 19 15172 15172 9556 White 49
2 PM Thu 79 83 S 13 20 14977 14977 9361 White 48
3 PM Thu 79 82 SSW 14 23 14780 14780 9164 White 47
4 PM Thu 79 81 SW 16 24 14584 14584 8968 White 46
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 17 25 13992 13992 8376 White 43
6 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 17 25 12999 12999 7383 White 38
7 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 17 24 11781 11781 6165 White 32
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 16 23 10754 10754 5138 White 27
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 16 23 10132 10132 4516 White 24
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 14 23 9713 9713 4097 White 22
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 23 9499 9499 3883 White 21
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 13 21 9284 9284 3668 White 20
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 19 9069 9069 3453 White 19
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 11 18 8854 8854 3238 White 18
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 11 17 8638 8638 3022 White 17
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 11 17 8423 8423 2807 White 16
5 AM Fri 51 51 W 11 17 8423 8423 2807 White 16
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 11 17 8638 8638 3022 White 17
7 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 10 16 9069 9069 3453 White 19
8 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 10 16 9713 9713 4097 White 22
9 AM Fri 63 65 W 10 16 11372 11372 5756 White 30
10 AM Fri 69 72 SW 10 17 12799 12799 7183 White 37
11 AM Fri 74 79 SSW 11 18 14190 14190 8574 White 44
12 Noon Fri 77 82 SSW 12 19 14780 14780 9164 White 47
1 PM Fri 77 82 SSW 12 19 14780 14780 9164 White 47
2 PM Fri 77 81 SSW 13 20 14584 14584 8968 White 46
3 PM Fri 77 80 SW 14 21 14386 14386 8770 White 45
4 PM Fri 77 79 WSW 14 23 14190 14190 8574 White 44
5 PM Fri 75 76 WSW 16 24 13596 13596 7980 White 41
6 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 17 25 12395 12395 6779 White 35
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 17 26 11372 11372 5756 White 30
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 17 26 10340 10340 4724 White 25
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 17 25 9925 9925 4309 White 23
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 16 24 9713 9713 4097 White 22

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]