Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 73 73 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 71 71 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 71 71 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 69 69 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 69 69 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 72 72 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 79 79 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 84 84 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 88 89 ESE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 92 95 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 94 99 SE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 96 104 SSE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 98 106 SSE 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 98 106 SSE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 96 102 SSE 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 91 91 S 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 88 91 W 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 87 88 W 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 83 83 WNW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 80 80 WNW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 77 77 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 75 75 WNW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 70 70 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 68 68 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 66 66 SW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 65 65 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 71 71 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 77 77 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 81 82 SSE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 85 88 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 88 93 SSE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 90 97 SSE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 93 101 SSE 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 94 103 SSE 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 96 104 SSE 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 96 103 S 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 96 101 SSW 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 95 98 SW 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 93 94 WSW 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 78 78 WNW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 75 75 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 73 73 WNW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 69 69 WNW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 66 66 WNW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 66 66 NW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 72 72 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 78 78 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 82 83 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 85 88 ESE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 88 93 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 91 98 SSE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 93 101 SSE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 95 104 S 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 96 104 SSW 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 96 103 SW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 95 100 SW 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 94 97 WSW 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 92 93 WSW 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 88 88 WSW 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]