Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 W 7 15 9992 7949 2333 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 7 15 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 7 15 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 6 14 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 5 10 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 SW 4 6 8561 6417 801 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 78 80 SSW 3 3 11133 10573 4957 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 82 85 SSW 5 6 13112 11710 6094 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 86 91 S 7 8 16907 14040 8424 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 90 96 S 9 10 20185 18118 12502 White 26
12 Noon Tue 91 97 S 9 11 20378 18801 13185 White 27
1 PM Tue 92 96 S 10 12 20185 18118 12502 White 26
2 PM Tue 93 95 S 11 13 19990 17389 11773 White 25
3 PM Tue 94 96 SSW 11 13 20185 18118 12502 White 26
4 PM Tue 95 97 SW 11 13 20378 18801 13185 White 27
5 PM Tue 96 97 SW 11 13 20378 18801 13185 White 27
6 PM Tue 94 95 WSW 9 13 19990 17389 11773 White 25
7 PM Tue 92 92 WSW 7 12 17691 14797 9181 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 90 90 W 6 12 16053 13706 8090 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 88 88 W 6 13 14132 13028 7412 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 86 86 W 6 14 13456 12334 6718 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 83 83 WNW 7 15 12411 11102 5486 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 WNW 6 14 10779 10253 4637 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 73 73 WNW 6 13 9992 7949 2333 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 6 12 6442 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 6 13 6442 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 6 13 6442 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 6 13 6442 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 W 4 9 10274 9237 3621 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 81 81 W 3 5 11309 10749 5133 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 87 88 WSW 1 1 14132 13028 7412 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 91 94 SW 3 3 19101 16603 10987 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 94 98 SSW 5 5 20572 20572 14956 White 28
11 AM Wed 98 104 SSE 6 8 21728 21728 16112 White 34
12 Noon Wed 99 106 S 7 8 22112 22112 16496 White 36
1 PM Wed 101 108 S 8 9 22494 22494 16878 White 38
2 PM Wed 102 108 S 9 10 22494 22494 16878 White 38
3 PM Wed 102 107 S 9 11 22303 22303 16687 White 37
4 PM Wed 102 106 SSW 10 11 22112 22112 16496 White 36
5 PM Wed 102 104 SSW 10 12 21728 21728 16112 White 34
6 PM Wed 100 101 SW 10 15 21152 21152 15536 White 31
7 PM Wed 97 97 W 10 17 20378 18801 13185 White 27
8 PM Wed 95 95 WNW 9 20 19990 17389 11773 White 25
9 PM Wed 93 93 WNW 9 19 18419 15748 10132 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 92 92 WNW 8 19 17691 14797 9181 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 91 91 WNW 8 18 16907 14040 8424 Blue 21
12 Midnight Thu 85 85 NW 7 16 13112 11710 6094 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 79 79 NW 7 15 10956 10396 4780 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 73 73 NW 6 13 9992 7949 2333 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 73 73 NW 6 14 9992 7949 2333 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 72 72 NW 7 15 9366 7285 1669 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 7 16 8561 6417 801 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 77 77 SW 6 12 10601 10113 4497 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 84 84 SE 6 9 12763 11278 5662 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 90 92 NNE 5 5 17691 14797 9181 Blue 22
9 AM Thu 92 95 ENE 6 7 19990 17389 11773 White 25
10 AM Thu 93 99 ESE 8 9 20766 20766 15150 White 29
11 AM Thu 95 102 SE 10 11 21345 21345 15729 White 32
12 Noon Thu 97 106 SSE 11 13 22112 22112 16496 White 36
1 PM Thu 98 107 SSE 12 13 22303 22303 16687 White 37
2 PM Thu 100 108 SSE 13 15 22494 22494 16878 White 38
3 PM Thu 100 107 S 15 17 22303 22303 16687 White 37
4 PM Thu 100 105 S 17 20 21920 21920 16304 White 35
5 PM Thu 100 103 S 20 23 21537 21537 15921 White 33
6 PM Thu 98 99 SW 16 21 20766 20766 15150 White 29
7 PM Thu 95 95 WSW 13 20 19990 17389 11773 White 25
8 PM Thu 93 93 W 9 19 18419 15748 10132 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 92 92 W 8 17 17691 14797 9181 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 91 91 W 7 15 16907 14040 8424 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 89 89 WNW 6 14 15107 13369 7753 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com