Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 6 14 10647 10149 4316 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 73 73 W 6 13 10169 8646 2813 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 13 8129 5833 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 68 68 W 6 12 7528 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 W 5 12 6652 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 W 5 11 5690 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 WSW 4 8 7528 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 WSW 3 6 8695 6629 796 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 73 74 SW 2 4 10310 9508 3675 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 77 80 SW 3 5 11357 10797 4964 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 80 85 SSW 3 5 13556 12435 6602 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 84 90 SSW 3 5 17162 14141 8308 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 87 94 SSW 6 10 20054 17633 11800 White 25
1 PM Tue 89 96 SSW 8 14 20444 19023 13190 White 27
2 PM Tue 91 97 SSW 11 19 20638 20638 14805 White 28
3 PM Tue 93 97 SW 11 19 20638 20638 14805 White 28
4 PM Tue 94 97 SW 11 18 20638 20638 14805 White 28
5 PM Tue 95 97 WSW 11 18 20638 20638 14805 White 28
6 PM Tue 93 94 WSW 9 17 20054 17633 11800 White 25
7 PM Tue 92 92 W 8 17 18646 16028 10195 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 91 91 W 7 16 17930 15106 9273 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 90 90 W 7 15 17162 14141 8308 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 89 89 W 7 15 16327 13808 7975 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 88 88 W 7 15 15409 13470 7637 Blue 20
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 W 6 13 13211 11910 6077 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 80 80 W 5 11 11357 10797 4964 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 4 10 10826 10290 4457 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 4 8 10647 10149 4316 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 76 76 W 3 7 10647 10149 4316 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 76 76 W 2 6 10647 10149 4316 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 79 79 W 2 5 11181 10620 4787 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 82 82 WNW 3 4 12511 11151 5318 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 85 86 NW 3 4 13896 12784 6951 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 88 90 WSW 3 4 17162 14141 8308 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 90 94 SSW 2 4 20054 17633 11800 White 25
11 AM Wed 93 99 SSE 2 5 21026 21026 15193 White 30
12 Noon Wed 96 103 SSE 4 7 21797 21797 15964 White 34
1 PM Wed 98 105 SSE 6 9 22182 22182 16349 White 36
2 PM Wed 101 108 SSE 7 11 22756 22756 16923 White 39
3 PM Wed 101 107 S 8 14 22565 22565 16732 White 38
4 PM Wed 101 105 SSW 10 16 22182 22182 16349 White 36
5 PM Wed 102 104 SSW 11 18 21989 21989 16156 White 35
6 PM Wed 100 101 SW 11 20 21413 21413 15580 White 32
7 PM Wed 98 98 WSW 12 23 20832 20832 14999 White 29
8 PM Wed 96 96 W 12 25 20444 19023 13190 White 27
9 PM Wed 94 94 W 10 22 20054 17633 11800 White 25
10 PM Wed 93 93 W 9 19 19318 16863 11030 Blue 24
11 PM Wed 91 91 W 7 16 17930 15106 9273 Blue 23
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 W 6 14 14367 13129 7296 Blue 19
1 AM Thu 84 84 WSW 5 11 13211 11910 6077 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 81 81 WSW 4 9 12049 10974 5141 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 79 79 W 4 8 11181 10620 4787 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 78 78 WNW 3 8 11003 10443 4610 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 77 77 NW 3 7 10826 10290 4457 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 80 80 W 3 6 11357 10797 4964 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 83 83 SSW 3 5 12863 11326 5493 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 86 88 SSE 3 4 15409 13470 7637 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 88 91 SSE 3 5 17930 15106 9273 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 90 96 SE 4 6 20444 19023 13190 White 27
11 AM Thu 91 98 SE 4 8 20832 20832 14999 White 29
12 Noon Thu 94 103 SSE 8 12 21797 21797 15964 White 34
1 PM Thu 96 105 S 11 15 22182 22182 16349 White 36
2 PM Thu 99 107 S 14 19 22565 22565 16732 White 38
3 PM Thu 99 106 SSW 17 25 22373 22373 16540 White 37
4 PM Thu 98 103 SSW 20 32 21797 21797 15964 White 34
5 PM Thu 98 101 SSW 23 38 21413 21413 15580 White 32
6 PM Thu 96 97 SW 19 32 20638 20638 14805 White 28
7 PM Thu 94 94 WSW 14 26 20054 17633 11800 White 25
8 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 9 20 19318 16863 11030 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 91 91 WSW 8 17 17930 15106 9273 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 89 89 WSW 6 14 16327 13808 7975 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 5 10 14367 13129 7296 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com