Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 N 2 6 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 NW 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 W 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 50 SE 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 52 ESE 0 1 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 53 SSE 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 53 SE 2 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 SSE 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 SSE 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 NE 0 0 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 WNW 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 WNW 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 6 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 W 3 6 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 W 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NW 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 WNW 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 NNW 1 2 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 50 NNE 1 2 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 51 ENE 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 53 E 2 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 54 E 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 ESE 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 53 53 ESE 2 4 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 E 2 6 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 E 1 3 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 NNE 1 2 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 4 8 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 5 11 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 6 13 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NNW 8 17 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NNW 10 19 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 11 20 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 11 21 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NNW 12 21 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 11 20 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 11 20 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 11 20 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NNW 11 22 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 N 10 22 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 N 10 21 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 N 8 17 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 NNE 6 12 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 52 NNE 5 9 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 NNE 4 9 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 NE 4 8 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 3 7 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 ENE 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 NNE 2 5 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 N 4 8 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 N 4 10 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NNW 5 11 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 NNW 5 11 4997 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NNW 5 11 4997 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]