Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 WSW 11 18 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 WSW 11 18 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 8 13 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 8 13 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 W 8 13 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 W 5 9 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 W 5 9 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 9 8906 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 62 SW 5 9 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 65 68 SW 5 9 12433 11104 2633 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 70 75 SW 5 9 16414 13811 5340 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 74 81 SSW 11 18 23054 18579 10108 White 24
12 Noon Tue 76 84 SSW 11 18 23654 22525 14054 White 27
1 PM Tue 78 87 SSW 11 18 24243 24243 15772 White 30
2 PM Tue 78 85 SSW 14 24 23853 23604 15133 White 28
3 PM Tue 79 85 SSW 14 24 23853 23604 15133 White 28
4 PM Tue 77 81 SSW 14 24 23054 18579 10108 White 24
5 PM Tue 77 80 WSW 16 25 21852 17840 9369 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 75 76 WSW 16 25 17286 14158 5687 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 16 25 13520 12385 3914 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 8 12 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 12 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 12 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 5 9 10385 9870 1399 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 5 9 8906 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 9 8906 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 5 9 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 5 9 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 5 9 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 5 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 W 3 5 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 W 3 5 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 65 66 W 1 2 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 70 73 W 1 2 14340 13107 4636 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 74 78 W 1 2 18826 16176 7705 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 79 84 S 11 18 23654 22525 14054 White 27
12 Noon Wed 81 87 S 11 18 24243 24243 15772 White 30
1 PM Wed 82 88 S 11 18 24437 24437 15966 White 31
2 PM Wed 82 86 SW 19 31 24049 24049 15578 White 29
3 PM Wed 82 85 SW 19 31 23853 23604 15133 White 28
4 PM Wed 81 83 SW 19 31 23453 21181 12710 White 26
5 PM Wed 80 81 WSW 16 25 23054 18579 10108 White 24
6 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 16 25 18085 15214 6743 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 16 25 14340 13107 4636 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 8 12 12800 11286 2815 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 8 12 11862 10922 2451 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 8 12 11121 10557 2086 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 6 11 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 6 11 10754 10231 1760 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 6 11 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 5 9 10239 8895 424 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 5 9 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 9 9893 8471 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 5 9893 8471 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 5 10239 8895 424 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 64 64 W 3 5 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 69 70 WSW 2 3 13162 11778 3307 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 74 76 WSW 2 3 17286 14158 5687 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 79 82 WSW 2 3 23253 19272 10801 White 25
11 AM Thu 82 86 SSE 9 13 24049 24049 15578 White 29
12 Noon Thu 83 88 SSE 9 13 24437 24437 15966 White 31
1 PM Thu 82 87 SSE 9 13 24243 24243 15772 White 30
2 PM Thu 81 83 S 11 18 23453 21181 12710 White 26
3 PM Thu 80 82 S 11 18 23253 19272 10801 White 25
4 PM Thu 79 80 S 11 18 21852 17840 9369 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 77 78 WSW 11 18 18826 16176 7705 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 11 18 15448 13461 4990 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 11 18 13520 12385 3914 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 12 12433 11104 2633 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 12 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 12 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 9 10754 10231 1760 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 5 9 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 9 10385 9870 1399 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 9 10239 8895 424 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 5 9 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 5 9 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 4 8 10239 8895 424 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 61 61 WSW 4 8 10385 9870 1399 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 63 63 WSW 4 8 10754 10231 1760 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 67 68 SW 3 5 12433 11104 2633 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 71 73 SW 3 5 14340 13107 4636 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 75 79 SW 3 5 20100 17044 8573 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 78 84 S 10 16 23654 22525 14054 White 27
12 Noon Fri 80 87 S 10 16 24243 24243 15772 White 30
1 PM Fri 80 87 S 10 16 24243 24243 15772 White 30
2 PM Fri 80 84 SSW 13 21 23654 22525 14054 White 27
3 PM Fri 79 82 SSW 13 21 23253 19272 10801 White 25
4 PM Fri 78 80 SSW 13 21 21852 17840 9369 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 76 78 WSW 18 28 18826 16176 7705 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 74 75 WSW 18 28 16414 13811 5340 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 18 28 13520 12385 3914 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 16 25 12433 11104 2633 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 16 25 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 16 25 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 12 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 8 12 10239 8895 424 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 12 9893 8471 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 6 11 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 6 11 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 6 11 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 5 9 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 W 5 9 8906 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 9 10385 9870 1399 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 65 66 W 3 6 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 69 72 W 3 6 13874 12748 4277 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 73 78 W 3 6 18826 16176 7705 Blue 21
11 AM Sat 76 83 SSW 8 12 23453 21181 12710 White 26
12 Noon Sat 78 86 SSW 8 12 24049 24049 15578 White 29
1 PM Sat 78 86 SSW 8 12 24049 24049 15578 White 29
2 PM Sat 79 85 WSW 11 18 23853 23604 15133 White 28
3 PM Sat 79 84 WSW 11 18 23654 22525 14054 White 27
4 PM Sat 79 83 WSW 11 18 23453 21181 12710 White 26
5 PM Sat 77 79 WSW 16 26 20100 17044 8573 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 74 75 WSW 16 26 16414 13811 5340 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 16 26 13162 11778 3307 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 14 24 11303 10739 2268 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 14 24 10754 10231 1760 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 14 24 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 8 12 10385 9870 1399 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 8 12 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 8 12 9893 8471 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 8 12 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 8 12 7714 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 8 12 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 9 7575 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 5 9 8321 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 9 10094 8471 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 63 64 W 5 8 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 68 71 W 5 8 13520 12385 3914 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 73 78 W 5 8 18826 16176 7705 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 77 84 WSW 8 12 23654 22525 14054 White 27
12 Noon Sun 80 88 WSW 8 12 24437 24437 15966 White 31
1 PM Sun 81 90 WSW 8 12 24822 24822 16351 White 33
2 PM Sun 82 89 WSW 11 18 24630 24630 16159 White 32
3 PM Sun 82 88 WSW 11 18 24437 24437 15966 White 31
4 PM Sun 81 85 WSW 11 18 23853 23604 15133 White 28
5 PM Sun 79 82 WSW 13 21 23253 19272 10801 White 25
6 PM Sun 76 77 WSW 13 21 18085 15214 6743 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 13 21 13520 12385 3914 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 11 19 11862 10922 2451 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 11 19 10937 10376 1905 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 11 19 10570 10086 1615 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com