Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 WNW 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 NW 10 16 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 NW 10 16 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 NW 10 16 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 NW 9 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 NW 9 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 NW 9 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 8 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 NW 8 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 NW 8 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 W 4 6 6461 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 W 4 6 8577 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 50 W 4 6 9073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 51 W 5 9 9558 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 9 10032 8573 102 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 W 5 9 9073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 NW 8 12 8069 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 NW 8 12 5892 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 NW 8 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 29 NW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 29 29 NW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 NW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 26 26 NW 5 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 26 26 NW 5 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 NW 5 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 NW 8 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 NW 8 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 NW 8 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 35 36 NNW 9 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 39 NNW 9 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 38 40 NNW 9 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 39 41 N 10 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 39 40 N 10 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 38 38 N 10 13 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 36 36 N 11 14 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 N 11 14 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 28 28 N 11 14 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 24 24 NNW 9 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 22 22 NNW 9 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 21 21 NNW 9 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 NW 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 NW 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 NW 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 20 20 NW 9 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 20 20 NW 9 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 19 19 NW 9 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 23 23 NW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 29 29 NW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 39 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 42 NNW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 41 43 NNE 6 10 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 42 43 NNE 6 10 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 40 NNE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 NNE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 NNE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 NNE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 25 25 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 NW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 23 W 4 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 W 4 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 W 4 6 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 23 23 SW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 SW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 SW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 SSW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 SSW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 SSW 5 5 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 SSW 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 SSW 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 SSW 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 38 SSE 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 41 SSE 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 SSE 5 9 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 44 SE 8 10 5892 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 SE 8 10 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 SE 8 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 SSE 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 SSE 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 SSE 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 S 5 8 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 SSE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 42 SSE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 44 SSE 6 10 5892 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 44 SE 9 12 5892 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 12 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 SE 9 12 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 SE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 SE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 32 32 SE 6 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 S 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 25 S 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 S 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 SSW 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 S 6 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 SSE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 SSE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 44 SSE 6 10 5892 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 45 ESE 9 12 6461 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 45 ESE 9 12 6461 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 ESE 9 12 5304 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 ESE 8 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 ESE 8 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 ESE 8 11 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 SE 6 10 4997 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 SW 5 9 4997 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]