Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 SSW 14 24 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 14 24 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 S 12 20 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 S 12 20 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 20 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 S 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 55 S 11 18 10039 8957 18 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 56 59 S 11 18 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 58 63 S 11 18 11629 10865 1926 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 61 68 SSW 13 21 13785 12654 3715 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 63 71 SSW 13 21 16222 13731 4792 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 65 73 SSW 13 21 17947 15002 6063 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 66 74 SSW 16 25 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 66 72 SSW 16 25 17124 14082 5143 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 66 71 SSW 16 25 16222 13731 4792 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 66 69 SW 13 21 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 66 67 SW 13 21 13427 12286 3347 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 13 21 11629 10865 1926 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 10 16 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 10 16 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 54 54 WSW 10 16 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 9 14 10039 8957 18 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 WSW 9 14 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 9 14 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 8 12 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 8 12 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 SW 8 12 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 11 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 11 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 11 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 5 9 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 61 62 SSW 5 9 11246 10681 1742 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 63 65 SSW 5 9 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 67 70 SSW 12 20 15215 13377 4438 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 70 74 SSW 12 20 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 70 74 SSW 12 20 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 71 74 SW 19 31 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 71 73 SW 19 31 17947 15002 6063 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 70 72 SW 19 31 17124 14082 5143 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 69 70 WSW 17 27 15215 13377 4438 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 17 27 13427 12286 3347 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 17 27 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 12 20 11246 10681 1742 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 12 20 11061 10497 1558 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 12 20 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 10 16 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 WSW 10 16 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 10 16 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 9 14 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 9 14 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 9 14 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 9 14 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 9 14 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 14 11061 10497 1558 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 65 66 SSW 5 9 13065 11566 2627 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 67 69 SSW 5 9 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 69 72 SSW 5 9 17124 14082 5143 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 71 75 SSW 10 16 19734 16899 7960 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 72 77 SSW 10 16 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 72 77 SSW 10 16 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 72 76 WSW 13 21 21674 17717 8778 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 72 75 WSW 13 21 19734 16899 7960 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 72 74 WSW 13 21 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 71 72 WSW 13 21 17124 14082 5143 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 13 21 13785 12654 3715 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 13 21 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 11 18 11629 10865 1926 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 11 18 11061 10497 1558 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 11 18 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 10 16 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 WSW 10 16 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 10 16 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 9 14 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 9 14 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 9 14 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 9 14 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 9 14 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 9 14 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 62 63 SW 5 9 11629 10865 1926 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 65 67 SW 5 9 13427 12286 3347 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 67 71 SW 5 9 16222 13731 4792 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 69 74 SSW 10 16 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 71 77 SSW 10 16 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 72 78 SSW 10 16 23999 19182 10243 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 72 77 SW 14 24 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 72 76 SW 14 24 21674 17717 8778 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 71 74 SW 14 24 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 70 72 WSW 17 27 17124 14082 5143 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 17 27 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 17 27 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 16 25 11629 10865 1926 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 16 25 11061 10497 1558 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 16 25 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 10 16 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 WSW 10 16 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 10 16 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 57 57 WSW 10 16 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 10 16 10039 8957 18 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 10 16 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SW 10 16 9675 8957 18 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 10 16 10039 8957 18 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 10 16 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 59 60 SW 6 11 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 62 65 SW 6 11 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 64 69 SW 6 11 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 66 73 SW 10 16 17947 15002 6063 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 68 76 SW 10 16 21674 17717 8778 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 69 77 SW 10 16 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 70 76 WSW 14 24 21674 17717 8778 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 14 24 19734 16899 7960 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 69 73 WSW 14 24 17947 15002 6063 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 67 70 WSW 17 27 15215 13377 4438 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 66 67 WSW 17 27 13427 12286 3347 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 17 27 12326 11049 2110 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 16 25 11246 10681 1742 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 16 25 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 16 25 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 11 18 10333 9650 711 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WSW 11 18 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 11 18 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 16 10039 8957 18 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 10 16 8957 8957 18 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 16 10186 8957 18 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 59 60 WSW 5 9 10876 10327 1388 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 62 65 WSW 5 9 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 64 69 WSW 5 9 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 67 74 SW 9 14 18707 16003 7064 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 69 77 SW 9 14 22984 18474 9535 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 70 79 SW 9 14 24610 21010 12071 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 72 79 WSW 12 20 24610 21010 12071 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 72 78 WSW 12 20 23999 19182 10243 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 72 76 WSW 12 20 21674 17717 8778 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 70 73 WSW 14 24 17947 15002 6063 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 68 69 WSW 14 24 14139 13018 4079 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 14 24 12697 11233 2294 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 62 62 W 13 23 11246 10681 1742 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 13 23 10691 10181 1242 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 13 23 10505 10034 1095 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com