Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SW 10 12 10617 10617 1678 White 5
1 AM Sun 28 28 SW 9 11 10395 10384 1445 White 4
2 AM Sun 27 27 SW 10 11 10172 9801 862 White 3
3 AM Sun 26 26 SW 10 11 9949 9427 488 White 2
4 AM Sun 26 26 SW 8 9 9949 9427 488 White 2
5 AM Sun 25 25 SSW 8 9 9722 9047 108 White 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 SSW 7 8 9722 9047 108 White 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 N 2 6 9722 9047 108 White 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 SSW 4 4 10395 10384 1445 White 4
9 AM Sun 30 30 SSW 2 3 10840 10840 1901 White 6
10 AM Sun 32 33 S 3 4 11503 11503 2564 White 9
11 AM Sun 35 36 S 4 5 12163 12163 3224 White 12
12 Noon Sun 36 37 SSW 5 5 12383 12383 3444 White 13
1 PM Sun 38 39 WSW 2 3 12818 12818 3879 White 15
2 PM Sun 39 39 W 3 4 12818 12818 3879 White 15
3 PM Sun 39 40 W 4 4 13032 13032 4093 White 16
4 PM Sun 39 39 W 5 6 12818 12818 3879 White 15
5 PM Sun 38 38 W 8 9 12602 12602 3663 White 14
6 PM Sun 36 36 W 9 10 12163 12163 3224 White 12
7 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 9 11944 11944 3005 White 11
8 PM Sun 34 34 W 7 8 11724 11724 2785 White 10
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 6 7 11503 11503 2564 White 9
10 PM Sun 32 32 WNW 5 6 11282 11282 2343 White 8
11 PM Sun 32 32 NW 5 6 11282 11282 2343 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 WNW 4 5 11060 11060 2121 White 7
1 AM Mon 31 31 NW 4 5 11060 11060 2121 White 7
2 AM Mon 30 30 NW 4 4 10840 10840 1901 White 6
3 AM Mon 30 30 NW 3 3 10840 10840 1901 White 6
4 AM Mon 30 30 NNW 2 2 10840 10840 1901 White 6
5 AM Mon 30 30 NNE 3 4 10840 10840 1901 White 6
6 AM Mon 30 30 NNE 3 3 10840 10840 1901 White 6
7 AM Mon 31 31 NE 2 2 11060 11060 2121 White 7
8 AM Mon 33 33 E 0 0 11503 11503 2564 White 9
9 AM Mon 36 38 NNE 1 1 12602 12602 3663 White 14
10 AM Mon 39 43 NNE 2 3 13673 13673 4734 White 19
11 AM Mon 43 48 NNE 4 4 14735 14735 5796 White 24
12 Noon Mon 46 52 NNE 4 4 15570 15570 6631 White 28
1 PM Mon 48 54 NNE 5 6 15984 15984 7045 White 30
2 PM Mon 50 54 N 7 8 15984 15984 7045 White 30
3 PM Mon 51 56 N 8 10 16397 16397 7458 White 32
4 PM Mon 51 54 N 9 11 15984 15984 7045 White 30
5 PM Mon 51 52 N 9 11 15570 15570 6631 White 28
6 PM Mon 49 49 N 9 10 14946 14946 6007 White 25
7 PM Mon 47 47 8 10 14523 14523 5584 White 23
8 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 10 14098 14098 5159 White 21
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 7 8 13673 13673 4734 White 19
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 6 7 13460 13460 4521 White 18
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 5 6 13032 13032 4093 White 16
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NNW 2 4 12602 12602 3663 White 14
1 AM Tue 36 36 NNW 3 5 12163 12163 3224 White 12
2 AM Tue 35 35 NNW 2 4 11944 11944 3005 White 11
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 2 4 11724 11724 2785 White 10
4 AM Tue 32 32 NNE 2 5 11282 11282 2343 White 8
5 AM Tue 30 30 NNE 0 1 10840 10840 1901 White 6
6 AM Tue 32 32 NE 1 2 11282 11282 2343 White 8
7 AM Tue 36 36 W 0 0 12163 12163 3224 White 12
8 AM Tue 40 41 S 0 0 13246 13246 4307 White 17
9 AM Tue 44 46 E 2 2 14311 14311 5372 White 22
10 AM Tue 47 50 E 2 3 15155 15155 6216 White 26
11 AM Tue 50 55 E 2 3 16190 16190 7251 White 31
12 Noon Tue 53 59 ENE 1 1 17012 17012 8073 White 35
1 PM Tue 56 62 ENE 0 1 17626 17626 8687 White 37
2 PM Tue 57 63 N 0 0 17830 17830 8891 White 38
3 PM Tue 58 63 NW 1 1 17830 17830 8891 White 38
4 PM Tue 58 61 W 3 3 17422 17422 8483 White 36
5 PM Tue 57 58 W 6 7 16808 16808 7869 White 34
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 11 16190 16190 7251 White 31
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 9 10 15570 15570 6631 White 28
8 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 7 9 15155 15155 6216 White 26
9 PM Tue 47 47 W 6 9 14523 14523 5584 White 23
10 PM Tue 45 45 W 5 10 14098 14098 5159 White 21
11 PM Tue 43 43 WSW 5 11 13673 13673 4734 White 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]