Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 11 18 4999 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 12 20 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 12 20 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 12 20 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 W 11 17 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 W 11 17 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 W 11 17 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 W 9 14 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 W 9 14 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 35 W 9 14 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 WSW 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 40 WSW 8 12 5604 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 WSW 8 12 6755 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 8 12 6755 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 WSW 8 12 7838 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 8 12 6755 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 40 40 W 5 9 5604 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 38 38 W 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 W 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 WSW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 WSW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 WSW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 W 2 4 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 2 4 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 2 4 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 NW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 NW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 NW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 WNW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 WNW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 WNW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 28 29 NNE 4 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 28 30 NNE 4 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 29 31 NNE 4 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 30 32 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 30 31 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 29 29 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 28 28 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 27 27 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 25 25 NE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 24 24 N 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 24 24 N 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 N 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 NNW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 NNW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 NNW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 SW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 SW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 SW 2 3 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 30 31 ESE 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 33 ESE 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 33 35 ESE 3 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 33 35 E 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 33 34 E 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 32 32 E 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 31 31 E 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 29 29 E 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 28 28 E 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 27 27 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 SSW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SSW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 SSW 4 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 4 5 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 SW 5 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 SW 5 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 SW 5 6 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 SW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 SW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 SW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 5 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 36 SSW 5 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 38 SSW 5 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 38 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 37 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 36 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 35 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 SSW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 SSW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 SSW 5 8 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 5 9 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 34 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 36 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 38 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 39 SSE 8 11 4999 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 37 SSE 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 36 SSE 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 SSE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 SSE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 SSE 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SSW 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 SSW 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 SSW 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 SSW 6 10 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 S 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 37 S 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 38 S 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 38 39 SE 8 12 4999 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 39 SE 8 12 4999 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 36 SE 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 35 E 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 34 34 E 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 E 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 S 8 11 4997 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 S 8 12 4997 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]