NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for some Eastern Sierra sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Garlock SW 26 2244 NW 24 5825 SW 18 7842 WSW 14 8432 WSW 17 8627 WSW 18 8627
Boomer Ridge W 37 1933 WNW 25 5547 WSW 21 7182 WSW 14 7981 WSW 17 8179 W 17 8179
9-Mile W 27 3668 N 18 6982 W 23 8770 SSW 16 9556 SW 17 9556 WSW 17 9164
Flynns S 12 3989 NNW 18 7312 W 11 8715 SW 11 9508 SW 12 9313 W 11 9313
Gunter SSW 9 1557 NNW 14 4913 NW 8 6330 W 9 6930 SW 8 6531 W 8 6730
Paiute SSW 9 3962 NNW 17 7159 NW 10 8600 W 10 9416 WSW 8 9212 W 8 9212
Chalk Bluffs SW 13 4487 N 19 7800 W 13 9391 S 11 9981 SSW 11 9981 SW 11 9587
McGee Creek WSW 12 3201 NW 11 6613 W 10 8059 W 10 8674 WSW 10 8878 W 9 8469
Bria Dog Ridge WNW 12 2913 NNW 13 6535 W 10 7765 W 10 8376 WSW 9 8579 W 9 8173
Mammoth SW 27 243 NE 21 4389 SSW 19 6064 W 19 6480 WSW 16 6064 WSW 16 6064
Walts W 29 996 NNW 24 4412 WSW 13 6064 S 12 7073 SSW 13 6670 WSW 12 6670
Copper Mountain W 9 4093 N 9 7458 W 10 8891
Horseshoe W 29 996 NNW 24 4412 WSW 13 6064 S 12 7073 SSW 13 6670 WSW 12 6670
Wolf Peak SW 13 2784 NNW 10 6420 W 12 8076 WNW 10 8282 W 12 8282 W 11 8282
Sweetwater SSW 25 2800 N 20 6235 W 19 7897 WSW 21 8515 W 18 8309 W 13 8103
Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center W 25 879 W 25 3837 W 25 7077 W 16 7669 W 17 7669 W 18 7472

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]