NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for some Eastern Sierra sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Garlock W 29 3905 SSW 35 2959 SSW 23 0 SW 16 376 NNW 13 3475 SSW 11 5398
Boomer Ridge SSW 19 4467 SSW 21 4467 SSW 10 310
9-Mile SSW 19 5450 SW 14 5024 SSE 10 0
Flynns W 18 4431 S 17 1986 SSE 14 0 S 10 297 NNW 13 3557 NW 10 5700
Gunter W 16 1067 S 14 0 SSE 9 0 SW 6 0 N 14 0 NW 8 2148
Paiute SW 17 3376 S 16 570 SSE 11 0 WSW 8 0 NNW 14 2785 NW 9 5209
Chalk Bluffs WSW 24 5256 SSW 16 2638 SSE 13 1128 SSE 10 1435 N 13 4609 NW 9 6729
McGee Creek SW 17 1618 SSW 7 0 SE 7 29
Bria Dog Ridge WSW 21 2211 SSW 12 0 SSE 9 0 WSW 6 0 NNW 11 2095 WNW 5 4312
Mammoth SW 42 0 SW 27 0 SW 14 0 WSW 18 0 NNW 21 0 NNE 20 2344
Walts W 10 7355 S 13 6730 SE 13 2148
Copper Mountain WSW 28 0 SSW 12 0 SSE 8 0 WSW 9 0 N 9 0 W 4 3006
Horseshoe W 37 1000 WSW 39 0 S 25 0 SSW 12 0 NNW 17 325 NW 13 2523
Wolf Peak SSW 16 2932 SSW 5 1194 WNW 5 1317
Sweetwater SW 49 0 SSE 17 0 SE 12 0 WSW 19 0 N 19 1153 SSW 17 5147
Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center W 32 2125 W 26 1834 SSW 18 0 WSW 14 345 W 14 2600 W 13 4930

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]