Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 WSW 5 11 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 4 10 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 4 9 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 4 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 W 4 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 W 3 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 WNW 2 5 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 WNW 2 3 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 69 NW 1 1 7711 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 73 W 2 2 10066 8245 2553 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 73 78 SSW 2 3 10873 10328 4636 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 77 84 SSE 3 4 12952 11380 5688 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 79 88 SSE 4 4 14638 13215 7523 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 82 91 S 5 5 17350 14327 8635 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 85 93 S 5 6 18805 16232 10540 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 85 92 SSW 8 9 18102 15336 9644 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 84 89 SW 10 11 15642 13554 7862 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 84 87 WSW 12 14 13980 12871 7179 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 82 83 WSW 10 13 12602 11196 5504 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 79 79 WSW 7 11 11051 10490 4798 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 5 10 10695 10187 4495 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 4 9 10207 8797 3105 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 4 8 8851 6878 1186 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 3 8 6912 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 3 7 6912 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 3 6 5980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 2 6 5980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 2 6 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 6 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 6 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 4 5980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 1 2 8291 5971 279 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 74 75 WSW 0 0 10348 9764 4072 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 77 80 SSW 1 2 11228 10667 4975 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 80 85 S 2 3 13299 12087 6395 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 83 90 SSE 4 4 16534 13890 8198 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 85 92 S 6 7 18102 15336 9644 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 86 93 S 8 9 18805 16232 10540 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 88 94 SSW 10 11 19904 17048 11356 White 25
3 PM Wed 87 92 SSW 9 10 18102 15336 9644 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 86 89 SW 8 9 15642 13554 7862 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 85 87 SW 6 8 13980 12871 7179 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 82 83 SW 6 7 12602 11196 5504 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 5 7 11228 10667 4975 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 4 7 10873 10328 4636 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 4 8 10517 10046 4354 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 8 10207 8797 3105 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 4 9 10066 8245 2553 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WNW 4 8 9821 7674 1982 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 3 8 8851 6878 1186 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 3 7 8291 5971 279 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 6 7711 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 2 6 6912 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 2 5 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 NW 2 3 8291 5971 279 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 73 73 NNW 1 2 10066 8245 2553 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 76 77 N 0 1 10695 10187 4495 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 79 82 W 2 2 12231 11020 5328 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 81 86 SSW 3 3 13641 12524 6832 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 84 91 SE 4 4 17350 14327 8635 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 85 93 SSE 6 8 18805 16232 10540 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 86 94 S 9 11 19904 17048 11356 White 25
2 PM Thu 88 95 SSW 12 14 20099 17803 12111 White 26
3 PM Thu 84 88 WSW 11 13 14638 13215 7523 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 82 WNW 11 13 12231 11020 5328 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 77 77 NW 11 13 10695 10187 4495 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 76 76 NW 9 12 10517 10046 4354 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 75 75 NW 7 11 10348 9764 4072 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 10 10207 8797 3105 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 73 73 NW 5 9 10066 8245 2553 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 71 71 NW 4 8 8851 6878 1186 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 70 70 NW 3 7 8291 5971 279 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com