Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 NNE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 80 80 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 80 80 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 77 77 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 77 77 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 76 76 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 75 75 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 77 77 ENE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 80 80 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 83 85 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 88 92 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 92 98 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 95 101 SSE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 95 101 SSE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 96 102 S 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 95 99 S 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 95 97 SSE 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 91 92 SSE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 88 88 SSE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 86 86 NNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 82 82 N 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 79 79 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 78 78 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 77 77 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 76 76 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 74 74 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 73 73 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 72 72 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 71 71 ENE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 71 71 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 72 72 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 79 80 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 83 85 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 87 89 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 89 92 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 89 92 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 89 92 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 89 91 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 88 90 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 87 88 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 82 82 WNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 80 80 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 78 78 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 77 77 NW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 76 76 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 74 74 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 73 73 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 72 72 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 70 70 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 70 70 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 70 70 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 72 72 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 74 75 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 77 80 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 81 85 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 85 91 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 88 95 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 89 96 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 90 96 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 90 95 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 89 92 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 88 90 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 86 87 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 83 83 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 80 80 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 75 75 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 73 73 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 71 71 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 74 75 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 78 81 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 83 88 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 87 94 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 90 98 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 91 99 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 92 99 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 93 99 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 92 96 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 91 93 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 89 90 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 86 86 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 83 83 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 80 80 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 78 78 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 73 73 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 68 68 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 73 74 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 77 80 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 82 87 SSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 86 93 SSE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 90 98 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 92 100 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 94 102 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 94 100 SSE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 94 98 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 92 94 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 90 91 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 87 87 SSE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 84 84 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 81 81 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 79 79 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 74 74 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 73 73 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 69 69 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 68 68 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 74 75 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 77 80 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 81 86 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 85 91 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 88 95 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 91 99 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 93 100 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 94 100 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 93 97 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 92 94 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 90 91 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 88 88 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 85 85 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]