Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SSE 13 20 7500 7500 1808 White 10
1 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 11 18 7059 7059 1367 White 8
2 AM Sun 38 38 SE 10 16 6617 6617 925 White 6
3 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 10 16 6396 6263 571 White 5
4 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 10 13 6174 5717 25 White 4
5 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 8 11 6174 5717 25 White 4
6 AM Sun 35 35 NNE 6 10 5950 5692 0 White 3
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 4 6 6174 5717 25 White 4
8 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 5 6 6396 6263 571 White 5
9 AM Sun 40 42 SW 5 8 7500 7500 1808 White 10
10 AM Sun 43 46 SSW 8 10 8376 8376 2684 White 14
11 AM Sun 46 50 SSW 9 11 9247 9247 3555 White 18
12 Noon Sun 48 52 S 10 14 9681 9681 3989 White 20
1 PM Sun 49 51 S 12 14 9465 9465 3773 White 19
2 PM Sun 49 50 S 11 14 9247 9247 3555 White 18
3 PM Sun 49 50 SSW 10 12 9247 9247 3555 White 18
4 PM Sun 50 51 S 10 12 9465 9465 3773 White 19
5 PM Sun 49 49 SSW 11 13 9030 9030 3338 White 17
6 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 10 13 8594 8594 2902 White 15
7 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 9 13 8376 8376 2684 White 14
8 PM Sun 43 43 NNW 10 13 7719 7719 2027 White 11
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 11 17 7500 7500 1808 White 10
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 13 19 7280 7280 1588 White 9
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 12 18 7059 7059 1367 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 12 18 7059 7059 1367 White 8
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 18 6838 6838 1146 White 7
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 12 18 6617 6617 925 White 6
3 AM Mon 37 37 N 13 20 6396 6263 571 White 5
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 12 19 6396 6263 571 White 5
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 12 18 6396 6263 571 White 5
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 13 20 6396 6263 571 White 5
7 AM Mon 36 36 N 12 19 6174 5717 25 White 4
8 AM Mon 39 40 N 13 20 7059 7059 1367 White 8
9 AM Mon 42 44 N 12 18 7939 7939 2247 White 12
10 AM Mon 47 51 NNW 12 17 9465 9465 3773 White 19
11 AM Mon 50 56 NNW 12 17 10525 10525 4833 White 24
12 Noon Mon 54 60 NNW 12 18 11359 11359 5667 White 28
1 PM Mon 58 65 NW 12 19 12394 12394 6702 White 33
2 PM Mon 62 68 NW 13 20 13004 13004 7312 White 36
3 PM Mon 63 67 NNW 16 21 12803 12803 7111 White 35
4 PM Mon 64 67 NNW 17 21 12803 12803 7111 White 35
5 PM Mon 64 65 NNW 18 21 12394 12394 6702 White 33
6 PM Mon 62 62 NNW 17 21 11774 11774 6082 White 30
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 16 20 11151 11151 5459 White 27
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 13 19 10734 10734 5042 White 25
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 12 19 10107 10107 4415 White 22
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 12 19 9681 9681 3989 White 20
11 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 12 18 9247 9247 3555 White 18
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NNW 11 17 8812 8812 3120 White 16
1 AM Tue 47 47 NW 11 14 8594 8594 2902 White 15
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 10 13 8376 8376 2684 White 14
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 9 12 8157 8157 2465 White 13
4 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 11 7939 7939 2247 White 12
5 AM Tue 44 44 NW 6 10 7939 7939 2247 White 12
6 AM Tue 44 44 NW 6 10 7939 7939 2247 White 12
7 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 5 9 8157 8157 2465 White 13
8 AM Tue 47 48 NNW 5 9 8812 8812 3120 White 16
9 AM Tue 51 53 NW 5 9 9897 9897 4205 White 21
10 AM Tue 56 60 W 5 9 11359 11359 5667 White 28
11 AM Tue 60 66 WSW 5 9 12600 12600 6908 White 34
12 Noon Tue 64 70 WSW 5 9 13407 13407 7715 White 38
1 PM Tue 66 73 SW 6 10 14008 14008 8316 White 41
2 PM Tue 69 75 SW 8 11 14407 14407 8715 White 43
3 PM Tue 70 75 WSW 9 12 14407 14407 8715 White 43
4 PM Tue 71 74 WSW 10 13 14208 14208 8516 White 42
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 11 14 13808 13808 8116 White 40
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 11 14 13206 13206 7514 White 37
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 11 14 12803 12803 7111 White 35
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 10 14 12188 12188 6496 White 32
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 9 13 11774 11774 6082 White 30
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 9 13 11151 11151 5459 White 27
11 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 8 12 10734 10734 5042 White 25
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 WNW 8 12 10316 10316 4624 White 23
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 8 11 10107 10107 4415 White 22
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 8 11 9681 9681 3989 White 20
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 8 11 9465 9465 3773 White 19
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 6 10 9247 9247 3555 White 18
5 AM Wed 50 50 NW 6 10 9247 9247 3555 White 18
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 6 10 9465 9465 3773 White 19
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 10 9681 9681 3989 White 20
8 AM Wed 54 55 NW 6 11 10316 10316 4624 White 23
9 AM Wed 58 60 WNW 8 12 11359 11359 5667 White 28
10 AM Wed 62 66 W 8 12 12600 12600 6908 White 34
11 AM Wed 66 71 WSW 9 13 13608 13608 7916 White 39
12 Noon Wed 69 75 WSW 10 14 14407 14407 8715 White 43
1 PM Wed 72 78 SW 10 16 15005 15005 9313 White 46
2 PM Wed 73 78 SW 11 17 15005 15005 9313 White 46
3 PM Wed 75 79 SW 11 17 15200 15200 9508 White 47
4 PM Wed 75 77 WSW 11 17 14806 14806 9114 White 45
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 11 17 14607 14607 8915 White 44
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 11 17 14008 14008 8316 White 41
7 PM Wed 70 70 NW 10 16 13407 13407 7715 White 38
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 10 16 12803 12803 7111 White 35
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 10 14 12188 12188 6496 White 32
10 PM Wed 62 62 NNW 9 14 11774 11774 6082 White 30
11 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 9 13 11359 11359 5667 White 28
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NNW 9 13 10943 10943 5251 White 26
1 AM Thu 57 57 NW 8 12 10734 10734 5042 White 25
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 8 12 10316 10316 4624 White 23
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 8 11 10107 10107 4415 White 22
4 AM Thu 53 53 NW 8 11 9897 9897 4205 White 21
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 8 10 9681 9681 3989 White 20
6 AM Thu 52 52 NW 8 10 9681 9681 3989 White 20
7 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 6 10 9897 9897 4205 White 21
8 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 6 10 10316 10316 4624 White 23
9 AM Thu 58 59 WNW 6 10 11151 11151 5459 White 27
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 6 10 12394 12394 6702 White 33
11 AM Thu 66 70 SSW 8 11 13407 13407 7715 White 38
12 Noon Thu 69 74 SSW 9 12 14208 14208 8516 White 42
1 PM Thu 72 77 SSW 9 14 14806 14806 9114 White 45
2 PM Thu 73 77 SSW 10 16 14806 14806 9114 White 45
3 PM Thu 75 78 SSW 11 17 15005 15005 9313 White 46
4 PM Thu 75 77 SW 12 18 14806 14806 9114 White 45
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 12 18 14607 14607 8915 White 44
6 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 12 17 14008 14008 8316 White 41
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 11 16 13608 13608 7916 White 39
8 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 10 14 13004 13004 7312 White 36
9 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 10 14 12600 12600 6908 White 34
10 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 9 13 11981 11981 6289 White 31
11 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 9 13 11567 11567 5875 White 29
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 WNW 9 13 11151 11151 5459 White 27
1 AM Fri 58 58 NW 8 12 10943 10943 5251 White 26
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 12 10525 10525 4833 White 24
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 10316 10316 4624 White 23
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 11 10107 10107 4415 White 22
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 11 9897 9897 4205 White 21
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 11 10107 10107 4415 White 22
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 10316 10316 4624 White 23
8 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 12 10525 10525 4833 White 24
9 AM Fri 60 61 NW 8 12 11567 11567 5875 White 29
10 AM Fri 64 67 NW 9 13 12803 12803 7111 White 35
11 AM Fri 67 72 NW 9 13 13808 13808 8116 White 40
12 Noon Fri 70 75 WNW 9 14 14407 14407 8715 White 43
1 PM Fri 72 77 W 10 14 14806 14806 9114 White 45
2 PM Fri 74 78 W 10 16 15005 15005 9313 White 46
3 PM Fri 75 78 W 10 17 15005 15005 9313 White 46
4 PM Fri 75 77 W 11 17 14806 14806 9114 White 45
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 11 17 14407 14407 8715 White 43
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 11 17 13808 13808 8116 White 40
7 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 10 16 13407 13407 7715 White 38
8 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 10 16 12803 12803 7111 White 35
9 PM Fri 65 65 NW 10 16 12394 12394 6702 White 33
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 10 16 11981 11981 6289 White 31

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]