Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 WNW 10 16 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 8 12 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 8 12 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 9 13 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 8 12 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 W 6 10 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 W 6 10 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 W 6 10 3783 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 80 W 9 13 8472 6319 1549 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 83 86 SSW 5 9 10546 10071 5301 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 86 91 SSW 9 13 11550 10855 6085 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 91 97 SW 11 17 13939 12839 8069 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 94 97 SSW 12 19 13939 12839 8069 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 97 103 SSW 14 23 18562 15986 11216 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 98 104 SW 16 24 19103 16791 12021 White 30
3 PM Tue 99 102 SW 16 24 17870 15103 10333 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 99 102 WSW 16 24 17870 15103 10333 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 98 99 WSW 14 23 15453 13504 8734 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 96 96 WSW 14 23 13609 12500 7730 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 93 93 W 11 17 12596 11200 6430 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 87 87 WNW 10 16 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 83 83 NW 10 16 10098 8395 3625 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 11 17 9931 7848 3078 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 81 81 WNW 11 17 9136 7165 2395 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 WNW 11 17 7918 5395 625 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 77 77 WNW 11 17 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 76 76 WNW 11 17 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 75 75 NW 12 19 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 74 74 NW 13 20 4160 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 6 10 3875 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 S 5 9 3875 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 W 2 3 7249 4770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 86 87 W 3 5 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 90 92 N 3 5 12240 11028 6258 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 93 96 ESE 2 3 13609 12500 7730 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 97 102 S 4 6 17870 15103 10333 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 101 107 S 5 9 19686 18885 14115 White 33
1 PM Wed 103 110 S 9 13 20253 20253 15483 White 36
2 PM Wed 105 110 S 10 16 20253 20253 15483 White 36
3 PM Wed 105 109 S 8 12 20064 20064 15294 White 35
4 PM Wed 105 108 S 8 12 19875 19875 15105 White 34
5 PM Wed 104 105 SW 10 16 19304 17536 12766 White 31
6 PM Wed 101 101 W 13 20 17129 14155 9385 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 98 98 WNW 14 23 14470 13173 8403 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 91 91 NW 11 17 11550 10855 6085 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 87 87 NNW 11 17 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 85 85 NW 12 19 10375 9850 5080 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 84 84 NW 13 20 10236 8925 4155 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 NW 13 20 9931 7848 3078 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 79 79 NW 13 20 7918 5395 625 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 78 78 W 10 16 7249 4770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 77 77 W 10 16 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 76 76 W 10 16 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 75 75 WNW 9 12 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 75 75 WNW 9 12 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 80 80 WNW 9 12 8472 6319 1549 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 86 87 NW 9 13 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 90 92 NW 9 13 12240 11028 6258 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 93 97 NW 9 13 13939 12839 8069 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 96 102 SSE 9 10 17870 15103 10333 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 99 106 SSE 9 10 19496 18231 13461 White 32
1 PM Thu 101 108 SSE 9 10 19875 19875 15105 White 34
2 PM Thu 103 108 SSW 13 21 19875 19875 15105 White 34
3 PM Thu 103 107 SSW 13 21 19686 18885 14115 White 33
4 PM Thu 103 106 SSW 13 21 19496 18231 13461 White 32
5 PM Thu 102 103 SW 17 24 18562 15986 11216 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 100 100 SW 17 24 16328 13832 9062 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 96 96 SW 17 24 13609 12500 7730 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 90 90 WSW 11 21 11241 10683 5913 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 11 21 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 85 85 WSW 11 21 10375 9850 5080 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 84 84 W 11 20 10236 8925 4155 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 W 11 20 9931 7848 3078 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 80 80 W 11 20 8472 6319 1549 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 79 79 W 10 18 7918 5395 625 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 78 78 W 10 18 7249 4770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 77 77 W 10 18 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 76 76 WNW 10 14 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 76 76 WNW 10 14 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 80 80 WNW 10 14 8472 6319 1549 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 86 87 W 10 14 10720 10209 5439 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 90 93 W 10 14 12596 11200 6430 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 92 97 W 10 14 13939 12839 8069 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 96 103 S 10 12 18562 15986 11216 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 99 107 S 10 12 19686 18885 14115 White 33
1 PM Fri 101 109 S 10 12 20064 20064 15294 White 35
2 PM Fri 102 109 SSW 14 24 20064 20064 15294 White 35
3 PM Fri 102 108 SSW 14 24 19875 19875 15105 White 34
4 PM Fri 102 106 SSW 14 24 19496 18231 13461 White 32
5 PM Fri 101 103 SW 18 26 18562 15986 11216 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 99 100 SW 18 26 16328 13832 9062 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 95 95 SW 18 26 13275 12061 7291 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 89 89 WSW 13 26 11067 10509 5739 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 86 86 WSW 13 26 10546 10071 5301 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 13 26 10236 8925 4155 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 11 20 10098 8395 3625 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 WSW 11 20 9136 7165 2395 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 79 79 WSW 11 20 7918 5395 625 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 78 78 W 11 20 7249 4770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 77 77 W 11 20 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 76 76 W 11 20 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 75 75 W 10 16 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 75 75 W 10 16 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 79 79 W 10 16 7918 5395 625 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 85 86 WSW 11 16 10546 10071 5301 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 89 92 WSW 11 16 12240 11028 6258 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 91 96 WSW 11 16 13609 12500 7730 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 95 102 SSW 11 16 17870 15103 10333 Blue 28
12 Noon Sat 98 106 SSW 11 16 19496 18231 13461 White 32
1 PM Sat 100 109 SSW 11 16 20064 20064 15294 White 35
2 PM Sat 101 109 WSW 17 25 20064 20064 15294 White 35
3 PM Sat 101 107 WSW 17 25 19686 18885 14115 White 33
4 PM Sat 101 106 WSW 17 25 19496 18231 13461 White 32
5 PM Sat 100 103 WSW 19 27 18562 15986 11216 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 98 99 WSW 19 27 15453 13504 8734 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 94 94 WSW 19 27 12938 11378 6608 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 88 88 W 14 27 10894 10346 5576 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 84 84 W 14 27 10236 8925 4155 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 82 82 W 14 27 9931 7848 3078 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 13 23 9136 7165 2395 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 13 23 8472 6319 1549 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 77 77 W 13 23 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 76 76 WSW 13 23 5441 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 75 75 WSW 13 23 4676 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 74 74 WSW 13 23 4160 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 WSW 12 20 3875 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 WSW 12 20 3875 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 WSW 12 20 6387 4770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 83 84 WSW 13 19 10236 8925 4155 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 87 90 WSW 13 19 11241 10683 5913 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 89 94 WSW 13 19 12938 11378 6608 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 93 100 WSW 12 16 16328 13832 9062 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 96 104 WSW 12 16 19103 16791 12021 White 30
1 PM Sun 98 107 WSW 12 16 19686 18885 14115 White 33
2 PM Sun 99 107 WSW 18 23 19686 18885 14115 White 33
3 PM Sun 99 106 WSW 18 23 19496 18231 13461 White 32
4 PM Sun 99 104 WSW 18 23 19103 16791 12021 White 30
5 PM Sun 98 101 WSW 21 28 17129 14155 9385 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 96 97 WSW 21 28 13939 12839 8069 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 92 92 WSW 21 28 12240 11028 6258 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 85 85 W 16 28 10375 9850 5080 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 82 82 W 16 28 9931 7848 3078 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 79 79 W 16 28 7918 5395 625 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com