Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SW 8 21 3451 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 SW 11 20 4393 4770 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 SW 16 18 4169 4770 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 WSW 13 13 4169 4770 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 WSW 10 13 3451 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 WSW 10 13 3451 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 WSW 11 14 4169 4770 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 WSW 12 16 4169 4770 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 42 SW 14 18 4841 4770 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 43 45 SW 17 21 5499 5499 729 White 5
10 AM Sun 45 49 SW 19 25 6369 6369 1599 White 9
11 AM Sun 47 48 SSW 21 26 6152 6152 1382 White 8
12 Noon Sun 48 50 SSW 24 28 6584 6584 1814 White 10
1 PM Sun 50 52 SW 26 29 7014 7014 2244 White 12
2 PM Sun 49 49 SW 25 28 6369 6369 1599 White 9
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 21 27 6152 6152 1382 White 8
4 PM Sun 50 51 SW 21 27 6799 6799 2029 White 11
5 PM Sun 49 49 SW 23 26 6369 6369 1599 White 9
6 PM Sun 49 49 WSW 23 26 6369 6369 1599 White 9
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 26 31 5935 5935 1165 White 7
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 26 28 5499 5499 729 White 5
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 25 26 5280 5280 510 White 4
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 23 25 5280 5280 510 White 4
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 24 26 5060 4895 125 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 24 28 5280 5280 510 White 4
1 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 24 33 5060 4895 125 White 3
2 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 24 32 5060 4895 125 White 3
3 AM Mon 43 43 WNW 24 33 5060 4895 125 White 3
4 AM Mon 43 43 NW 24 28 5060 4895 125 White 3
5 AM Mon 42 42 NW 24 28 4841 4770 0 White 2
6 AM Mon 44 44 NW 24 26 5280 5280 510 White 4
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 19 21 5280 5280 510 White 4
8 AM Mon 45 46 NNW 18 21 5717 5717 947 White 6
9 AM Mon 48 50 N 13 19 6584 6584 1814 White 10
10 AM Mon 51 55 N 13 18 7656 7656 2886 White 15
11 AM Mon 54 60 WNW 10 16 8721 8721 3951 White 20
12 Noon Mon 56 63 WNW 10 16 9356 9356 4586 White 23
1 PM Mon 59 66 WNW 10 16 9984 9984 5214 White 26
2 PM Mon 62 69 SW 13 17 10595 10595 5825 White 29
3 PM Mon 64 69 SW 13 17 10595 10595 5825 White 29
4 PM Mon 64 67 SW 13 17 10188 10188 5418 White 27
5 PM Mon 64 65 SW 16 18 9777 9777 5007 White 25
6 PM Mon 63 63 SW 16 18 9356 9356 4586 White 23
7 PM Mon 60 60 SW 16 18 8721 8721 3951 White 20
8 PM Mon 58 58 W 14 19 8296 8296 3526 White 18
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 19 7870 7870 3100 White 16
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 14 19 7443 7443 2673 White 14
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 12 7014 7014 2244 White 12
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 W 8 12 6799 6799 2029 White 11
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 8 12 6584 6584 1814 White 10
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 10 6369 6369 1599 White 9
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 10 6152 6152 1382 White 8
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 10 6152 6152 1382 White 8
5 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 8 11 6152 6152 1382 White 8
6 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 8 11 6369 6369 1599 White 9
7 AM Tue 50 50 WNW 8 11 6584 6584 1814 White 10
8 AM Tue 52 53 NW 8 11 7229 7229 2459 White 13
9 AM Tue 55 57 NW 8 11 8083 8083 3313 White 17
10 AM Tue 59 63 NW 8 11 9356 9356 4586 White 23
11 AM Tue 63 69 E 8 12 10595 10595 5825 White 29
12 Noon Tue 67 74 E 8 12 11608 11608 6838 White 34
1 PM Tue 70 77 E 8 12 12212 12212 7442 White 37
2 PM Tue 72 78 SSW 11 16 12412 12412 7642 White 38
3 PM Tue 74 79 SSW 11 16 12612 12612 7842 White 39
4 PM Tue 74 77 SSW 11 16 12212 12212 7442 White 37
5 PM Tue 74 75 SW 18 24 11810 11810 7040 White 35
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 18 24 11204 11204 6434 White 32
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 18 24 10798 10798 6028 White 30
8 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 18 24 10188 10188 5418 White 27
9 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 18 24 9566 9566 4796 White 24
10 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 18 24 8932 8932 4162 White 21
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 18 8508 8508 3738 White 19
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 13 18 8083 8083 3313 White 17
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 13 18 7870 7870 3100 White 16
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 11 16 7656 7656 2886 White 15
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 11 16 7443 7443 2673 White 14
4 AM Wed 52 52 W 11 16 7014 7014 2244 White 12
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 10 13 7014 7014 2244 White 12
6 AM Wed 52 52 W 10 13 7014 7014 2244 White 12
7 AM Wed 54 54 W 10 13 7443 7443 2673 White 14
8 AM Wed 56 57 W 10 13 8083 8083 3313 White 17
9 AM Wed 59 61 W 10 13 8932 8932 4162 White 21
10 AM Wed 63 67 W 10 13 10188 10188 5418 White 27
11 AM Wed 67 73 SSW 9 12 11405 11405 6635 White 33
12 Noon Wed 71 78 SSW 9 12 12412 12412 7642 White 38
1 PM Wed 74 81 SSW 9 12 13005 13005 8235 White 41
2 PM Wed 76 82 SSW 12 17 13202 13202 8432 White 42
3 PM Wed 78 82 SSW 12 17 13202 13202 8432 White 42
4 PM Wed 78 81 SSW 12 17 13005 13005 8235 White 41
5 PM Wed 78 79 WSW 14 20 12612 12612 7842 White 39
6 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 14 20 12010 12010 7240 White 36
7 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 14 20 11608 11608 6838 White 34
8 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 13 19 11001 11001 6231 White 31
9 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 13 19 10392 10392 5622 White 28
10 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 13 19 9777 9777 5007 White 25
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 11 16 9356 9356 4586 White 23
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 W 11 16 8932 8932 4162 White 21
1 AM Thu 60 60 W 11 16 8721 8721 3951 White 20
2 AM Thu 59 59 W 11 14 8508 8508 3738 White 19
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 11 14 8296 8296 3526 White 18
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 11 14 8083 8083 3313 White 17
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 10 13 8083 8083 3313 White 17
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 10 13 8083 8083 3313 White 17
7 AM Thu 58 58 W 10 13 8296 8296 3526 White 18
8 AM Thu 60 60 W 9 13 8721 8721 3951 White 20
9 AM Thu 63 64 W 9 13 9566 9566 4796 White 24
10 AM Thu 66 68 W 9 13 10392 10392 5622 White 28
11 AM Thu 70 74 S 10 14 11608 11608 6838 White 34
12 Noon Thu 73 77 S 10 14 12212 12212 7442 White 37
1 PM Thu 76 81 S 10 14 13005 13005 8235 White 41
2 PM Thu 78 82 SSW 13 19 13202 13202 8432 White 42
3 PM Thu 80 83 SSW 13 19 13397 13397 8627 White 43
4 PM Thu 81 83 SSW 13 19 13397 13397 8627 White 43
5 PM Thu 80 81 WSW 17 21 13005 13005 8235 White 41
6 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 17 21 12412 12412 7642 White 38
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 17 21 11608 11608 6838 White 34
8 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 14 21 11001 11001 6231 White 31
9 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 14 21 10392 10392 5622 White 28
10 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 14 21 9984 9984 5214 White 26
11 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 12 18 9566 9566 4796 White 24
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 WSW 12 18 9145 9145 4375 White 22
1 AM Fri 61 61 WSW 12 18 8932 8932 4162 White 21
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 11 16 8721 8721 3951 White 20
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 11 16 8508 8508 3738 White 19
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 11 16 8083 8083 3313 White 17
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 14 8083 8083 3313 White 17
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 14 8083 8083 3313 White 17
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 10 14 8296 8296 3526 White 18
8 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 10 14 8721 8721 3951 White 20
9 AM Fri 63 64 WSW 10 14 9566 9566 4796 White 24
10 AM Fri 67 70 WSW 10 14 10798 10798 6028 White 30
11 AM Fri 71 76 SW 10 16 12010 12010 7240 White 36
12 Noon Fri 74 80 SW 10 16 12809 12809 8039 White 40
1 PM Fri 76 82 SW 10 16 13202 13202 8432 White 42
2 PM Fri 78 83 WSW 13 19 13397 13397 8627 White 43
3 PM Fri 79 83 WSW 13 19 13397 13397 8627 White 43
4 PM Fri 79 81 WSW 13 19 13005 13005 8235 White 41
5 PM Fri 78 79 WSW 18 24 12612 12612 7842 White 39
6 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 18 24 11810 11810 7040 White 35
7 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 18 24 11204 11204 6434 White 32
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 16 23 10595 10595 5825 White 29
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 16 23 10188 10188 5418 White 27
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 16 23 9777 9777 5007 White 25

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]