Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 2 4 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 6 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 6 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 ENE 5 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 51 E 6 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 54 ESE 6 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 55 E 6 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 55 ESE 6 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 54 ESE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 E 5 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 NNE 5 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 2 3 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 2 3 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 0 1 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 1 2 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 2 2 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 3 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 4 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 4 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 4 4 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 51 E 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 55 E 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 58 E 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 59 SE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 SE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 SE 5 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 SSW 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 SSW 4 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 NW 4 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 NW 4 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 NW 4 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 NW 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NW 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NW 3 5 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 5 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 NW 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 NW 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NNW 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 NNW 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 NNE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NNE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NNE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 58 ENE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 58 ENE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 5 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 N 6 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 N 6 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 5 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 5 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 10 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 10 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 10 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 10 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 10 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 N 10 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 NNE 11 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 NNE 11 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 54 NNE 11 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 56 NE 11 17 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 56 NE 11 17 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 55 55 NE 11 17 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 54 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 NE 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 8 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 51 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 53 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 55 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 N 9 12 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 56 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NE 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 N 8 11 3294 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]