Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 WSW 5 11 11112 10548 944 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 4 10 10561 10078 474 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 4 9 10087 9604 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 4 8 9871 9604 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 58 58 W 4 8 9871 9604 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 57 57 W 3 8 8879 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 WNW 2 5 10232 9604 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 63 63 WNW 2 3 10745 10224 620 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 67 69 NW 1 1 12782 11277 1673 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 70 73 W 2 2 14280 13089 3485 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 73 78 SSW 2 3 18790 16129 6525 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 77 84 SSE 3 4 23610 22463 12859 White 27
12 Noon Tue 79 88 SSE 4 4 24393 24393 14789 White 31
1 PM Tue 82 91 S 5 5 24968 24968 15364 White 34
2 PM Tue 85 93 S 5 6 25339 25339 15735 White 36
3 PM Tue 85 92 SSW 8 9 25154 25154 15550 White 35
4 PM Tue 84 89 SW 10 11 24586 24586 14982 White 32
5 PM Tue 84 87 WSW 12 14 24200 24200 14596 White 30
6 PM Tue 82 83 WSW 10 13 23410 21100 11496 White 26
7 PM Tue 79 79 WSW 7 11 19979 17001 7397 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 5 10 18046 15162 5558 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 4 9 15396 13443 3839 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 4 8 13502 12367 2763 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 3 8 12415 11095 1491 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 3 7 12415 11095 1491 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 3 6 11824 10913 1309 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 2 6 11824 10913 1309 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 2 6 11295 10731 1127 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 6 11112 10548 944 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 6 10928 10369 765 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 4 11824 10913 1309 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 1 2 13144 11741 2137 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 74 75 WSW 0 0 16367 13794 4190 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 77 80 SSW 1 2 21778 17800 8196 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 80 85 S 2 3 23809 23552 13948 White 28
11 AM Wed 83 90 SSE 4 4 24780 24780 15176 White 33
12 Noon Wed 85 92 S 6 7 25154 25154 15550 White 35
1 PM Wed 86 93 S 8 9 25339 25339 15735 White 36
2 PM Wed 88 94 SSW 10 11 25525 25525 15921 White 37
3 PM Wed 87 92 SSW 9 10 25154 25154 15550 White 35
4 PM Wed 86 89 SW 8 9 24586 24586 14982 White 32
5 PM Wed 85 87 SW 6 8 24200 24200 14596 White 30
6 PM Wed 82 83 SW 6 7 23410 21100 11496 White 26
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 5 7 21778 17800 8196 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 4 7 18790 16129 6525 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 4 8 17244 14140 4536 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 8 15396 13443 3839 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 4 9 14280 13089 3485 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WNW 4 8 13856 12730 3126 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 3 8 13502 12367 2763 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 3 7 13144 11741 2137 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 6 12782 11277 1673 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 2 6 12415 11095 1491 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 2 5 11295 10731 1127 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 70 70 NW 2 3 13144 11741 2137 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 73 73 NNW 1 2 14280 13089 3485 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 76 77 N 0 1 18046 15162 5558 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 79 82 W 2 2 23209 19237 9633 White 25
10 AM Thu 81 86 SSW 3 3 24005 24005 14401 White 29
11 AM Thu 84 91 SE 4 4 24968 24968 15364 White 34
12 Noon Thu 85 93 SSE 6 8 25339 25339 15735 White 36
1 PM Thu 86 94 S 9 11 25525 25525 15921 White 37
2 PM Thu 88 95 SSW 12 14 25710 25710 16106 White 38
3 PM Thu 84 88 WSW 11 13 24393 24393 14789 White 31
4 PM Thu 80 82 WNW 11 13 23209 19237 9633 White 25
5 PM Thu 77 77 NW 11 13 18046 15162 5558 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 76 76 NW 9 12 17244 14140 4536 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 75 75 NW 7 11 16367 13794 4190 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 10 15396 13443 3839 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 73 73 NW 5 9 14280 13089 3485 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 71 71 NW 4 8 13502 12367 2763 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 70 70 NW 3 7 13144 11741 2137 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com