Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 77 77 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 73 73 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 72 72 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 71 71 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 72 72 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 75 76 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 77 79 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 81 84 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 84 89 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 86 92 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 87 93 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 88 92 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 87 90 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 84 86 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 83 84 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 73 73 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 71 71 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 71 71 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 70 70 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 69 69 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 68 68 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 72 73 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 75 76 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 78 80 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 80 83 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 80 83 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 80 83 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 82 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 79 81 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 78 79 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 64 64 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 64 64 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 65 65 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 67 67 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 69 70 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 75 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 75 80 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 78 84 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 80 87 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 81 88 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 82 88 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 82 87 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 81 85 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 80 82 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 71 71 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 68 68 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 67 67 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 66 66 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 66 66 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 67 67 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 69 70 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 72 75 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 75 80 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 78 85 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 80 88 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 82 90 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 83 90 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 84 90 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 85 89 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 84 86 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 82 83 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 80 80 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 77 77 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 75 75 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 72 72 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 66 66 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 64 64 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 63 63 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 64 64 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 66 66 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 68 69 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 74 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 75 80 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 78 85 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 81 89 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 83 91 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 84 92 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 85 91 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 86 91 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 85 87 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 83 84 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 81 81 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 78 78 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 75 75 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 72 72 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 63 63 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 64 64 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 66 66 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 69 70 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 72 75 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 76 81 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 79 85 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 81 88 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 91 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 91 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 91 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 86 90 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 85 87 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 83 84 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 81 81 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 78 78 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 76 76 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 73 73 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]