Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 55 55 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 64 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 67 67 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 69 71 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 70 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 70 71 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 71 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 71 72 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 69 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 68 68 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 66 66 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 56 56 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 55 55 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 54 54 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 53 53 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 61 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 63 65 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 66 69 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 68 72 E 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 69 73 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 69 72 SE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 69 71 SE 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 69 70 SSE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 67 67 SSE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 64 64 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 52 52 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 51 51 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 52 52 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 54 54 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 59 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 62 64 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 66 70 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 68 73 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 70 75 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 70 74 SSE 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 70 73 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 70 72 S 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 68 68 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 65 65 SSW 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 55 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 63 64 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 66 68 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 68 70 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 71 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 69 71 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 69 70 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 70 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 67 67 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 SSW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 59 59 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 60 61 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 66 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 66 69 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 67 70 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 67 70 S 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 67 69 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 68 SSW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 65 SSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 51 51 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 54 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 58 59 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 64 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 67 SSE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 69 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 69 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 68 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 67 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]