Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 WNW 18 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 WNW 19 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 WNW 19 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 WNW 19 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 NW 19 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NW 18 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 NW 18 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NW 18 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NW 14 21 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 39 NW 12 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 41 NW 10 17 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 42 NW 9 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 43 NW 9 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 42 NW 9 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 43 NW 10 17 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 41 41 NW 10 18 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 41 41 WNW 11 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 13 21 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 WNW 14 23 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 NW 17 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 NW 17 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 NW 17 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 NW 17 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 NW 16 23 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 NW 14 21 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 NW 14 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 NW 13 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 NW 13 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 NW 13 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 WNW 13 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 WNW 13 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 WNW 13 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 NW 13 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 33 NNW 12 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 35 37 N 11 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 39 N 10 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 37 40 NNE 8 17 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 38 41 NNE 6 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 39 41 NE 6 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 39 40 NE 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 38 38 NNE 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 NW 5 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 36 36 W 5 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 W 6 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 W 8 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 W 8 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 WNW 6 10 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 WNW 6 10 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 WNW 6 10 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 6 10 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 6 10 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 8 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 WNW 8 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 WNW 9 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 W 9 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 W 10 17 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 WSW 10 18 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 46 WSW 10 19 8308 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 45 47 WSW 10 21 8753 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 45 47 WSW 11 23 8753 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 45 47 WSW 13 25 8753 9085 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 44 45 W 14 27 7855 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 W 17 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 18 29 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 19 29 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 W 19 29 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 W 19 29 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 W 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 W 18 27 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 W 18 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 W 18 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 W 18 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 W 18 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 WNW 18 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 WNW 18 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 WNW 17 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 WNW 17 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 WNW 16 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 WNW 14 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 36 NW 14 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 39 NW 13 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 41 NW 13 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 38 42 NW 13 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 41 NW 13 24 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 40 NW 13 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 39 NW 14 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 NW 14 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 NW 14 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 NW 16 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 NW 16 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 NW 17 26 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 NW 17 27 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 NW 18 27 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 NW 18 27 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 NW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 18 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 35 NNW 17 28 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 39 NNW 16 27 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 42 NNW 14 25 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 42 NNW 12 23 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 43 NNW 11 20 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 43 NNW 10 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 42 NNW 10 19 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 NNW 10 18 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 NW 10 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 WNW 9 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 WNW 9 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 9 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 10 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 WNW 10 16 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 14 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 WNW 10 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 9 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 NW 8 13 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 NNW 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 46 N 5 12 8308 9085 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 46 49 N 5 12 9495 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 47 50 N 5 12 9813 9085 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 47 50 N 5 12 9813 9085 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 47 49 NW 5 12 9495 9085 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 46 47 WSW 6 12 8753 9085 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 45 45 SSW 6 12 7855 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 5 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 5 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 W 5 11 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 6 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 WNW 8 12 7230 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]