Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 3 3 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 SE 3 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 3 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 2 3 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 2 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 3 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 3 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 3 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 ESE 2 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 NE 4 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 NNW 5 8 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 63 WNW 6 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 66 WNW 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 66 W 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 13 20 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 13 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 11 17 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 NW 8 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 6 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 5 9 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NNW 5 6 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NNW 4 6 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NNE 4 6 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 4 6 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 4 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 3 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 E 3 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 ESE 3 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 4 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 3 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 ESE 2 4 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 N 3 5 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 NW 5 8 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 NW 5 8 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 60 NW 5 8 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 63 W 8 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 64 W 8 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 8 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 8 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 ENE 8 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NE 6 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NE 6 10 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NNE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NNE 8 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 8 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 8 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NNE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 NNE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 62 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 65 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 66 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 63 E 12 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 E 12 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 E 12 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 NE 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 NE 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 NE 10 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 9 11 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 E 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 57 E 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 61 E 10 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 63 ESE 11 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 ESE 11 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 ESE 11 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 62 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 E 11 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 9 12 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 64 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 66 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 66 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 65 E 12 19 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 63 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 E 12 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 9 14 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 59 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 62 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 65 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 67 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 66 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 65 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 E 11 18 2805 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 ENE 9 13 2805 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]