Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 W 6 10 3258 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 4 6 2893 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 9 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 NNW 5 9 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 9 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 8 12 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NNW 6 10 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 NNW 5 9 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 WNW 5 9 3258 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 79 W 6 10 3811 5000 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 82 87 W 6 10 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 87 94 W 9 13 10796 10270 5270 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 92 98 W 13 20 11812 10922 5922 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 96 102 W 17 26 13375 12267 7267 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 98 103 WSW 19 29 13702 12602 7602 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 99 105 WSW 19 29 15488 13261 8261 White 31
4 PM Tue 98 102 WSW 19 29 13375 12267 7267 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 97 98 WSW 19 29 11812 10922 5922 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 96 96 WSW 17 26 11138 10582 5582 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 93 93 WSW 14 23 10625 10134 5134 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 88 88 NW 9 13 9708 7603 2603 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 84 84 NNW 10 16 6932 5000 0 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 82 82 NW 10 16 5111 5000 0 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 80 80 NW 9 13 4045 5000 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 N 4 6 3811 5000 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 76 76 NNW 4 6 3674 5000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 75 75 NW 4 6 3636 5000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 73 73 NNW 2 3 3440 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 1 2 3076 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 W 2 3 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 N 2 3 2602 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 NW 1 2 3258 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 80 WSW 2 3 4045 5000 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 85 87 W 2 3 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 91 95 W 3 5 10967 10411 5411 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 97 101 W 3 5 13045 11615 6615 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 102 107 W 8 12 15889 13906 8906 White 33
1 PM Wed 107 112 W 10 16 16885 16885 11885 White 38
2 PM Wed 109 114 WSW 16 24 17280 17280 12280 White 40
3 PM Wed 110 114 WSW 17 26 17280 17280 12280 White 40
4 PM Wed 109 112 WSW 16 24 16885 16885 11885 White 38
5 PM Wed 108 109 W 16 24 16290 15269 10269 White 35
6 PM Wed 106 106 WSW 20 31 15690 13585 8585 White 32
7 PM Wed 103 103 SW 19 29 13702 12602 7602 Blue 29
8 PM Wed 98 98 WSW 10 16 11812 10922 5922 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 93 93 WNW 5 9 10625 10134 5134 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 91 91 NNW 6 10 10303 9492 4492 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 89 89 NNW 8 12 10031 8147 3147 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 NNW 8 12 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 84 84 NNW 8 12 6932 5000 0 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 83 83 NNW 10 10 6065 5000 0 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 81 81 NNW 10 10 4513 5000 0 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 79 79 NNW 10 10 3811 5000 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 76 76 NNW 6 9 3674 5000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 74 74 NNW 6 9 3599 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 NNW 6 9 3750 5000 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 84 85 ENE 5 6 7689 5040 40 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 89 91 ENE 5 6 10303 9492 4492 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 94 98 ENE 5 6 11812 10922 5922 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 99 105 S 11 17 15488 13261 8261 White 31
12 Noon Thu 102 109 S 11 17 16290 15269 10269 White 35
1 PM Thu 106 113 S 11 17 17082 17082 12082 White 39
2 PM Thu 108 114 SW 20 28 17280 17280 12280 White 40
3 PM Thu 109 114 SW 20 28 17280 17280 12280 White 40
4 PM Thu 108 111 SW 20 28 16687 16687 11687 White 37
5 PM Thu 107 109 W 21 28 16290 15269 10269 White 35
6 PM Thu 105 106 W 21 28 15690 13585 8585 White 32
7 PM Thu 102 102 W 21 28 13375 12267 7267 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 97 97 W 18 26 11308 10752 5752 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 92 92 W 18 26 10454 9999 4999 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 90 90 W 18 26 10167 8674 3674 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 88 88 WNW 12 14 9708 7603 2603 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 86 86 WNW 12 14 8240 5973 973 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 83 83 WNW 12 14 6065 5000 0 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 82 82 NW 10 10 5111 5000 0 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 80 80 NW 10 10 4045 5000 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 78 78 NW 10 10 3750 5000 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 75 75 NNW 6 8 3636 5000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 73 73 NNW 6 8 3440 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 77 NNW 6 8 3712 5000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 83 84 WNW 5 6 6932 5000 0 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 88 91 WNW 5 6 10303 9492 4492 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 93 98 WNW 5 6 11812 10922 5922 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 98 105 SW 11 14 15488 13261 8261 White 31
12 Noon Fri 101 109 SW 11 14 16290 15269 10269 White 35
1 PM Fri 105 113 SW 11 14 17082 17082 12082 White 39
2 PM Fri 107 114 WSW 19 26 17280 17280 12280 White 40
3 PM Fri 108 114 WSW 19 26 17280 17280 12280 White 40
4 PM Fri 107 111 WSW 19 26 16687 16687 11687 White 37
5 PM Fri 106 108 W 21 28 16090 14327 9327 White 34
6 PM Fri 104 105 W 21 28 15488 13261 8261 White 31
7 PM Fri 101 101 W 21 28 13045 11615 6615 Blue 27
8 PM Fri 96 96 W 18 28 11138 10582 5582 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 91 91 W 18 28 10303 9492 4492 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 89 89 W 18 28 10031 8147 3147 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 87 87 W 12 17 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 85 85 W 12 17 7689 5040 40 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 82 82 W 12 17 5111 5000 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 81 81 NW 10 13 4513 5000 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 79 79 NW 10 13 3811 5000 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 77 77 NW 10 13 3712 5000 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 74 74 NW 9 10 3599 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 NW 9 10 3258 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 NW 9 10 3674 5000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 82 83 W 6 9 6065 5000 0 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 86 89 W 6 9 10031 8147 3147 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 91 96 W 6 9 11138 10582 5582 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 96 103 WSW 13 18 13702 12602 7602 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 100 108 WSW 13 18 16090 14327 9327 White 34
1 PM Sat 103 112 WSW 13 18 16885 16885 11885 White 38
2 PM Sat 105 113 W 21 29 17082 17082 12082 White 39
3 PM Sat 106 112 W 21 29 16885 16885 11885 White 38
4 PM Sat 105 109 W 21 29 16290 15269 10269 White 35
5 PM Sat 104 107 W 23 32 15889 13906 8906 White 33
6 PM Sat 102 103 W 23 32 13702 12602 7602 Blue 29
7 PM Sat 99 99 W 23 32 12373 11092 6092 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 94 94 W 18 31 10796 10270 5270 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 89 89 W 18 31 10031 8147 3147 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 87 87 W 18 31 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 85 85 W 12 19 7689 5040 40 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 W 12 19 6065 5000 0 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 80 80 W 12 19 4045 5000 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 79 79 WNW 10 16 3811 5000 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 77 77 WNW 10 16 3712 5000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 75 75 WNW 10 16 3636 5000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 72 72 WNW 10 13 3258 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 WNW 10 13 2893 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 WNW 10 13 3599 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 81 W 8 12 4513 5000 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 84 87 W 8 12 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 89 94 W 8 12 10796 10270 5270 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 94 101 W 13 20 13045 11615 6615 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 98 106 W 13 20 15690 13585 8585 White 32
1 PM Sun 101 110 W 13 20 16488 16113 11113 White 36
2 PM Sun 103 111 W 21 29 16687 16687 11687 White 37
3 PM Sun 104 111 W 21 29 16687 16687 11687 White 37
4 PM Sun 103 108 W 21 29 16090 14327 9327 White 34
5 PM Sun 102 105 W 23 32 15488 13261 8261 White 31
6 PM Sun 100 101 W 23 32 13045 11615 6615 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 97 97 W 23 32 11308 10752 5752 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 91 91 W 19 29 10303 9492 4492 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 87 87 W 19 29 8773 6825 1825 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 84 84 W 19 29 6932 5000 0 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com