Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 18 27 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 16 28 5458 5000 0 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 19 28 5458 5000 0 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 50 50 WSW 20 28 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 18 27 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 14 23 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 11 18 3093 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 12 18 3093 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 50 W 11 18 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 55 W 14 20 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 59 63 W 21 23 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 63 69 WSW 24 26 8590 7021 2021 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 67 74 WSW 26 31 10315 9619 4619 White 23
1 PM Wed 68 75 WSW 29 34 10521 10154 5154 White 24
2 PM Wed 70 77 WSW 31 37 10934 10934 5934 White 26
3 PM Wed 70 75 WSW 34 39 10521 10154 5154 White 24
4 PM Wed 68 71 W 34 39 9680 7878 2878 White 20
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 34 40 8590 7021 2021 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 31 39 7039 6568 1568 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 28 39 6384 5445 445 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 28 39 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 27 37 5129 5000 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 23 34 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 25 34 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 WSW 24 32 3709 5000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 23 31 3373 5000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 25 31 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 21 31 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 21 32 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 21 31 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 21 29 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 20 28 3119 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 WSW 21 26 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 55 WSW 25 29 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 57 61 WSW 29 33 5787 5281 281 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 59 65 WSW 33 39 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 63 70 WSW 33 39 9177 7248 2248 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 65 72 WSW 33 39 9893 8481 3481 White 21
2 PM Thu 65 71 W 35 40 9680 7878 2878 White 20
3 PM Thu 65 70 W 35 40 9177 7248 2248 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 66 69 W 35 40 8590 7021 2021 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 65 66 W 35 41 7039 6568 1568 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 35 41 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 35 41 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 34 41 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 34 41 5129 5000 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 34 41 4888 5000 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 36 40 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 36 40 3981 5000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 36 40 3373 5000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 29 34 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 WNW 29 34 3198 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 WNW 29 34 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 26 36 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 26 36 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 W 26 36 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 W 23 34 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 W 23 34 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 55 W 23 34 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 55 60 W 29 36 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 57 63 W 29 36 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 59 65 W 29 36 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 60 65 W 35 43 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 60 64 W 35 43 6772 5772 772 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 60 63 W 35 43 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 59 60 W 34 52 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 34 52 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 34 52 4888 5000 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 31 47 3981 5000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 31 47 3709 5000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 31 47 3373 5000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 51 51 WNW 27 41 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 WNW 27 41 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 WNW 27 41 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 WNW 21 32 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 WNW 21 32 3093 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 WNW 21 32 3066 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 14 23 3040 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 14 23 3040 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 14 23 3040 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 46 WNW 12 19 3119 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 51 WNW 12 19 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 58 WNW 12 19 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 59 65 W 17 19 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 63 70 W 17 19 9177 7248 2248 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 65 73 W 17 19 10107 9060 4060 White 22
2 PM Sat 67 74 W 17 24 10315 9619 4619 White 23
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 17 24 10107 9060 4060 White 22
4 PM Sat 67 70 W 17 24 9177 7248 2248 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 66 68 W 18 27 7979 6888 1888 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 18 27 6772 5772 772 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 18 27 5787 5281 281 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 18 27 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 18 27 4888 5000 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 18 27 4263 5000 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 11 19 3709 5000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 WNW 11 19 3266 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 11 19 3198 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 WNW 11 19 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 WNW 11 19 3093 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 11 19 3066 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 9 13 3066 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 9 13 3066 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 9 13 3119 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 WNW 9 13 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 57 WNW 9 13 5129 5000 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 60 65 WNW 9 13 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 66 73 W 12 21 10107 9060 4060 White 22
12 Noon Sun 70 78 W 12 21 11138 11138 6138 White 27
1 PM Sun 73 81 W 12 21 11749 11749 6749 White 30
2 PM Sun 74 81 W 12 21 11749 11749 6749 White 30
3 PM Sun 75 80 W 12 21 11547 11547 6547 White 29
4 PM Sun 74 78 W 12 21 11138 11138 6138 White 27
5 PM Sun 72 74 W 17 24 10315 9619 4619 White 23
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 17 24 8590 7021 2021 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 17 24 7039 6568 1568 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 17 24 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 17 24 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 17 24 5293 5000 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 10 16 4888 5000 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 WNW 10 16 3981 5000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 10 16 3373 5000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 10 16 3224 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 10 16 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 10 16 3145 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 12 3119 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 12 3119 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 W 9 12 3171 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 W 9 12 3373 5000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 57 60 W 9 12 5623 5117 117 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 63 68 W 9 12 7979 6888 1888 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 69 75 WSW 13 21 10521 10154 5154 White 24
12 Noon Mon 73 80 WSW 13 21 11547 11547 6547 White 29
1 PM Mon 76 84 WSW 13 21 12357 12357 7357 White 33
2 PM Mon 77 84 WSW 13 21 12357 12357 7357 White 33
3 PM Mon 78 84 WSW 13 21 12357 12357 7357 White 33
4 PM Mon 77 81 WSW 13 21 11749 11749 6749 White 30
5 PM Mon 75 77 W 16 25 10934 10934 5934 White 26
6 PM Mon 72 72 W 16 25 9893 8481 3481 White 21
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 16 25 7979 6888 1888 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 16 25 6905 6361 1361 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 16 25 6592 5609 609 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 16 25 5787 5281 281 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]