Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SW 31 47 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 31 47 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 29 44 9744 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 SW 29 44 9744 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SW 29 44 9744 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 27 41 9744 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 27 41 9744 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 SW 27 41 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 54 SW 25 37 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 56 59 SW 25 37 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 58 63 SW 25 37 13743 12606 1633 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 61 68 SW 20 31 17927 14939 3966 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 63 71 SW 20 31 22243 17717 6744 White 21
1 PM Tue 65 74 SW 20 31 22858 21121 10148 White 24
2 PM Tue 65 73 SW 20 31 22654 19207 8234 White 23
3 PM Tue 66 73 SW 20 31 22654 19207 8234 White 23
4 PM Tue 66 71 SW 20 31 22243 17717 6744 White 21
5 PM Tue 66 69 SW 18 27 18702 15967 4994 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 63 64 SW 18 27 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 18 27 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 17 26 11480 10973 0 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 17 26 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 17 26 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 16 24 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 WSW 16 24 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 16 24 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 14 23 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 14 23 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 14 23 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 18 27 10147 10973 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 18 27 10459 10973 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 18 27 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 18 27 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 63 64 SSW 18 27 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 66 67 SSW 18 27 17086 14055 3082 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 68 72 SW 23 34 22449 18488 7515 White 22
12 Noon Wed 71 75 SW 23 34 23062 23062 12089 White 25
1 PM Wed 72 76 SW 23 34 23266 23266 12293 White 26
2 PM Wed 72 75 SW 24 36 23062 23062 12089 White 25
3 PM Wed 72 75 SW 24 36 23062 23062 12089 White 25
4 PM Wed 72 74 SW 24 36 22858 21121 10148 White 24
5 PM Wed 71 72 SW 19 29 22449 18488 7515 White 22
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 19 29 18702 15967 4994 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 66 66 SW 19 29 16161 13699 2726 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 62 62 SW 14 23 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 14 23 13011 11440 467 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 14 23 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 19 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 12 19 11209 10973 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 12 19 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 11 17 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 54 54 SW 11 17 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 53 53 SW 11 17 10459 10973 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 16 10459 10973 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 55 55 SW 10 16 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 10 16 11480 10973 0 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 61 62 SSW 6 10 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 65 67 SSW 6 10 17086 14055 3082 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 68 71 SSW 6 10 22243 17717 6744 White 21
11 AM Thu 70 74 SSW 10 16 22858 21121 10148 White 24
12 Noon Thu 71 76 SSW 10 16 23266 23266 12293 White 26
1 PM Thu 71 76 SSW 10 16 23266 23266 12293 White 26
2 PM Thu 70 73 SW 13 20 22654 19207 8234 White 23
3 PM Thu 70 73 SW 13 20 22654 19207 8234 White 23
4 PM Thu 70 72 SW 13 20 22449 18488 7515 White 22
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 13 20 19773 16883 5910 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 20 17086 14055 3082 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 13 20 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 11 17 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 11 17 12639 11201 228 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 11 17 11480 10973 0 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 10 16 11209 10973 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 WSW 10 16 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 10 16 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 10 16 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 10 16 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 54 54 SW 10 16 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 11 17 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 11 17 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 11 17 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 61 62 SSW 9 13 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 64 67 SSW 9 13 17086 14055 3082 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 66 70 SSW 9 13 19773 16883 5910 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 68 74 SSW 13 20 22858 21121 10148 White 24
12 Noon Fri 69 76 SSW 13 20 23266 23266 12293 White 26
1 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 13 20 23470 23470 12497 White 27
2 PM Fri 70 76 SW 14 23 23266 23266 12293 White 26
3 PM Fri 71 76 SW 14 23 23266 23266 12293 White 26
4 PM Fri 70 73 SW 14 23 22654 19207 8234 White 23
5 PM Fri 69 71 WSW 18 27 22243 17717 6744 White 21
6 PM Fri 67 68 WSW 18 27 17927 14939 3966 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 18 27 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 18 27 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 18 27 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 18 27 11209 10973 0 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 19 28 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 WSW 19 28 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 19 28 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 18 28 10459 10973 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 18 28 10147 10973 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 18 28 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 SW 16 24 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SW 16 24 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 16 24 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 59 60 SW 14 23 12639 11201 228 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 62 65 SW 14 23 15123 13339 2366 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 64 69 SW 14 23 18702 15967 4994 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 66 73 WSW 12 18 22654 19207 8234 White 23
12 Noon Sat 68 76 WSW 12 18 23266 23266 12293 White 26
1 PM Sat 69 78 WSW 12 18 23673 23673 12700 White 28
2 PM Sat 70 78 WSW 14 23 23673 23673 12700 White 28
3 PM Sat 70 76 WSW 14 23 23266 23266 12293 White 26
4 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 14 23 23062 23062 12089 White 25
5 PM Sat 69 72 WSW 17 25 22449 18488 7515 White 22
6 PM Sat 67 68 WSW 17 25 17927 14939 3966 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 17 25 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 17 25 13380 12203 1230 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 17 25 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 17 25 11209 10973 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 56 56 SW 13 20 11022 10973 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SW 13 20 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 13 20 10647 10973 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 12 19 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 51 51 SW 12 19 10147 10973 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 50 50 SW 12 19 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 SW 11 17 9998 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SW 11 17 10295 10973 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 55 55 SW 11 17 10835 10973 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 59 60 SW 9 13 12639 11201 228 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 62 65 SW 9 13 15123 13339 2366 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 65 70 SW 9 13 19773 16883 5910 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 67 74 SW 10 16 22858 21121 10148 White 24
12 Noon Sun 69 77 SW 10 16 23470 23470 12497 White 27
1 PM Sun 71 80 SW 10 16 24074 24074 13101 White 30
2 PM Sun 72 79 WSW 12 19 23876 23876 12903 White 29
3 PM Sun 72 78 WSW 12 19 23673 23673 12700 White 28
4 PM Sun 71 75 WSW 12 19 23062 23062 12089 White 25
5 PM Sun 69 71 WSW 14 21 22243 17717 6744 White 21
6 PM Sun 67 68 WSW 14 21 17927 14939 3966 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 14 21 14102 12975 2002 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 14 21 13011 11440 467 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 14 21 12259 11015 42 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 14 21 11209 10973 0 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com