Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SW 5 12 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 11 11 N 2 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 SW 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 42 SW 4 5 12438 10973 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 44 44 SW 5 6 13584 11852 879 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 46 46 SW 6 7 15850 12952 1979 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 47 48 WSW 6 8 18477 14259 3286 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 6 7 17306 13532 2559 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 4 5 15850 12952 1979 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 3 3 12438 10973 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 36 36 SW 3 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 SW 3 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 3 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 28 28 WSW 2 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 W 1 3 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 SW 1 3 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 WSW 1 3 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 SW 2 4 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 W 2 4 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 2 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 W 1 3 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 W 1 2 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 NW 2 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 N 3 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 N 2 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 3 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 N 3 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 33 N 4 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 34 36 NNE 6 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 38 NNE 6 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 39 NNE 7 8 10468 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 37 38 NNE 7 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 36 36 NNE 7 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 NNE 6 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 28 28 NNE 6 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 25 25 NNE 5 11 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 23 23 N 4 10 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 21 N 4 10 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 20 N 4 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 19 19 N 4 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 19 19 N 3 8 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 18 18 N 3 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 18 18 N 3 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 18 18 N 3 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 18 18 N 3 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 18 18 N 2 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 18 18 N 2 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 19 19 N 2 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 N 3 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 21 21 NNE 2 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 27 N 2 6 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 32 33 NNE 4 4 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 37 NNE 4 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 40 NNE 5 6 11280 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 40 42 NNE 5 6 12438 10973 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 40 41 NNE 5 6 11870 10973 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 40 40 NNE 5 6 11280 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 NNE 4 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 30 NNE 4 7 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 26 26 NNE 2 5 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 24 24 NNE 2 4 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 N 2 4 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 N 1 2 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 23 NE 0 1 10295 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 NE 0 1 10295 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]