Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 68 68 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 61 61 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 62 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 66 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 70 73 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 73 75 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 76 79 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 77 80 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 79 80 SSW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 77 78 SSW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 76 76 SSW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 76 77 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 62 62 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 66 67 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 72 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 73 75 ESE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 77 ESE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 75 78 ESE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 76 78 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 76 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 73 74 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 71 72 WSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 63 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 67 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 70 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 71 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 72 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 69 72 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 73 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 73 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 71 73 WSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 71 72 WSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 57 57 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 55 55 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 57 58 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 60 62 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 68 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 72 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 75 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 71 77 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 72 76 SW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 72 75 SW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 71 73 SW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 70 70 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 56 56 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 53 53 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 53 53 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 57 58 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 63 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 64 69 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 74 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 71 78 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 73 81 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 74 80 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 74 79 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 77 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 72 74 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 72 73 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 56 57 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 59 62 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 63 68 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 67 73 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 70 77 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 72 80 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 74 80 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 75 80 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 75 79 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 75 77 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 74 75 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]