Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 251216/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 4 6 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 WSW 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 WSW 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 WSW 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 W 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 W 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 W 4 8 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 W 4 9 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 W 4 9 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 W 4 9 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 43 WSW 5 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 WSW 5 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 WSW 5 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 53 WSW 6 13 9099 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 54 WSW 6 13 10429 9082 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 WSW 6 13 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 8 13 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 SW 8 13 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 SW 8 13 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 SW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 SW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 SW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 SW 11 17 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 SW 11 17 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 SW 11 17 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 12 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 WSW 12 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 12 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 WSW 13 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 45 WSW 13 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 47 WSW 13 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 48 WSW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 46 WSW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 WSW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 10 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 WSW 8 12 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 8 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 8 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 8 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 6 11 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 WSW 8 14 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 48 WSW 8 14 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 51 WSW 8 14 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 53 WSW 10 19 9099 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 WSW 9 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 9 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 9 16 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 11 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 11 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 11 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 WSW 13 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 WSW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 WSW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SW 13 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 SW 14 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SW 14 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 SW 14 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 SW 14 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 SW 14 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 50 SW 14 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 WSW 17 32 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 49 WSW 17 32 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 17 32 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 SW 14 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 SW 14 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 40 SW 11 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 SW 11 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 46 SW 11 20 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 47 SW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 46 SW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 44 SW 13 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SW 11 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 SW 11 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 SW 11 23 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 SW 10 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SW 10 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SW 10 18 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 SW 9 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 SW 9 19 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 37 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 39 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 41 SW 11 21 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 42 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 SW 14 26 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 SW 12 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 SW 12 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 39 39 SW 12 25 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 SW 13 24 8999 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]