Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 46 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 50 50 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 60 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 63 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 63 64 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 63 63 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 64 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 63 63 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 63 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 58 58 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 41 41 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 42 42 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 45 45 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 49 50 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 56 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 59 62 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 62 66 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 64 68 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 64 66 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 64 65 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 64 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 48 48 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 43 43 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 49 50 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 54 56 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 59 62 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 66 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 69 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 65 69 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 66 69 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 66 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 61 61 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 45 45 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 43 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 51 51 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 56 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 58 59 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 61 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 62 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 63 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 41 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 46 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 52 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 58 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 61 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 64 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 64 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 63 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 61 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 57 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 50 50 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 49 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 43 43 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 44 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 49 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 54 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 55 58 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 58 61 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 63 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 62 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 60 61 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]