Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 WSW 4 8 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 38 38 WSW 4 8 10260 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 5 10 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 W 5 10 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 W 5 10 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 W 6 10 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 W 6 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 6 10 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NW 3 6 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NW 3 6 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 44 44 NW 3 6 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 46 49 N 2 3 17635 16788 7706 White 11
12 Noon Wed 48 51 N 2 3 18051 18051 8969 White 13
1 PM Wed 49 52 N 2 3 18258 18258 9176 White 14
2 PM Wed 48 50 WSW 9 13 17843 17843 8761 White 12
3 PM Wed 47 49 WSW 9 13 17635 16788 7706 White 11
4 PM Wed 46 47 WSW 9 13 17214 13396 4314 White 9
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 8 12 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 44 44 W 8 12 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 42 42 W 8 12 12449 10781 1699 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 41 41 W 4 8 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 40 40 W 4 8 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 39 39 W 4 8 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 38 38 W 5 10 10260 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 W 5 10 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 W 5 10 9018 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 5 9 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 35 W 5 9 8348 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 39 W 5 9 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 41 45 W 5 9 14694 12392 3310 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 42 48 W 8 12 17427 13878 4796 White 10
12 Noon Thu 43 50 W 8 12 17843 17843 8761 White 12
1 PM Thu 45 52 W 8 12 18258 18258 9176 White 14
2 PM Thu 46 50 WSW 13 21 17843 17843 8761 White 12
3 PM Thu 46 49 WSW 13 21 17635 16788 7706 White 11
4 PM Thu 46 48 WSW 13 21 17427 13878 4796 White 10
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 13 23 14694 12392 3310 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 13 23 12965 11328 2246 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 13 23 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 13 21 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 13 21 10260 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 13 21 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 11 18 9018 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 WSW 11 18 8348 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 11 18 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 WSW 9 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 WSW 9 13 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 34 WSW 9 13 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 37 WSW 9 13 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 39 W 10 17 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 38 40 W 10 17 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 39 41 W 10 17 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 39 41 W 14 24 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 39 40 W 14 24 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 39 40 W 14 24 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 38 38 W 13 21 10260 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 W 13 21 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 W 13 21 9018 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 10 16 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 WNW 10 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 WNW 10 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 WNW 6 11 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 WNW 6 11 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 WNW 6 11 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 WNW 6 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 WNW 6 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 WNW 6 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 W 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 W 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 W 5 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 29 W 3 4 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 34 W 3 4 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 40 W 3 4 11368 9648 566 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 40 46 WNW 3 4 17000 12901 3819 White 8
12 Noon Sat 43 50 WNW 3 4 17843 17843 8761 White 12
1 PM Sat 45 52 WNW 3 4 18258 18258 9176 White 14
2 PM Sat 46 52 W 5 9 18258 18258 9176 White 14
3 PM Sat 47 51 W 5 9 18051 18051 8969 White 13
4 PM Sat 48 51 W 5 9 18051 18051 8969 White 13
5 PM Sat 47 48 W 9 14 17427 13878 4796 White 10
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 14 17000 12901 3819 White 8
7 PM Sat 44 44 W 9 14 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 6 10 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 6 10 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 37 37 WSW 6 10 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 WSW 3 5 8348 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 WSW 3 5 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 3 5 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 WSW 3 4 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 WSW 3 4 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 WSW 3 4 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 5 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 5 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 SW 3 5 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 34 SW 2 4 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 39 SW 2 4 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 41 45 SW 2 4 14694 12392 3310 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 45 51 SW 2 3 18051 18051 8969 White 13
12 Noon Sun 48 55 SW 2 3 18906 18906 9824 White 17
1 PM Sun 49 56 SW 2 3 19110 19110 10028 White 18
2 PM Sun 51 58 WSW 5 8 19517 19517 10435 White 20
3 PM Sun 52 57 WSW 5 8 19313 19313 10231 White 19
4 PM Sun 52 55 WSW 5 8 18906 18906 9824 White 17
5 PM Sun 52 54 WSW 8 12 18701 18701 9619 White 16
6 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 8 12 18051 18051 8969 White 13
7 PM Sun 49 49 WSW 8 12 17635 16788 7706 White 11
8 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 6 10 17000 12901 3819 White 8
9 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 6 10 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 41 41 WSW 6 10 11917 10240 1158 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 39 39 WSW 4 6 10810 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 WSW 4 6 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 4 6 8348 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 4 6 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 4 6 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 WSW 4 6 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 WSW 5 8 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 5 8 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 5 8 7644 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 WSW 4 6 9658 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 42 WSW 4 6 12449 10781 1699 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 45 49 WSW 4 6 17635 16788 7706 White 11
11 AM Mon 49 55 WSW 4 6 18906 18906 9824 White 17
12 Noon Mon 52 59 WSW 4 6 19720 19720 10638 White 21
1 PM Mon 54 61 WSW 4 6 20123 20123 11041 White 23
2 PM Mon 55 62 WSW 8 12 20326 20326 11244 White 24
3 PM Mon 57 62 WSW 8 12 20326 20326 11244 White 24
4 PM Mon 57 61 WSW 8 12 20123 20123 11041 White 23
5 PM Mon 56 58 WSW 11 17 19517 19517 10435 White 20
6 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 11 17 18701 18701 9619 White 16
7 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 11 17 18258 18258 9176 White 14
8 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 8 13 17635 16788 7706 White 11
9 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 8 13 17000 12901 3819 White 8
10 PM Mon 44 44 WSW 8 13 13466 11869 2787 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]