Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 17 26 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 SW 17 26 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SW 13 21 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SW 13 21 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SW 13 21 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 8 12 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 SW 8 12 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 8 12 9488 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 SW 8 12 10849 10305 1223 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 63 66 SW 8 12 13380 12212 3130 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 68 73 SW 8 12 18627 15894 6812 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 72 79 SSW 11 18 23016 22309 13227 White 26
12 Noon Tue 75 83 SSW 11 18 23823 23823 14741 White 30
1 PM Tue 76 85 SSW 11 18 24215 24215 15133 White 32
2 PM Tue 77 84 SSW 14 24 24020 24020 14938 White 31
3 PM Tue 77 83 SSW 14 24 23823 23823 14741 White 30
4 PM Tue 77 81 SSW 14 24 23420 23420 14338 White 28
5 PM Tue 76 78 SW 13 21 22814 20847 11765 White 25
6 PM Tue 76 77 SW 13 21 22612 19113 10031 White 24
7 PM Tue 73 73 SW 13 21 18627 15894 6812 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 10 16 15081 13332 4250 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 10 16 13016 11461 2379 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 62 62 WSW 10 16 11519 10839 1757 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 8 12 10849 10305 1223 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 WSW 8 12 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 8 12 10311 9474 392 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 5 9 10016 9082 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 5 9 9488 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 5 9 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 62 62 SW 4 6 11519 10839 1757 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 4 6 15081 13332 4250 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 74 76 SW 4 6 22410 18398 9316 White 23
11 AM Wed 77 81 SSW 12 20 23420 23420 14338 White 28
12 Noon Wed 80 84 SSW 12 20 24020 24020 14938 White 31
1 PM Wed 81 86 SSW 12 20 24411 24411 15329 White 33
2 PM Wed 81 85 SW 18 29 24215 24215 15133 White 32
3 PM Wed 81 85 SW 18 29 24215 24215 15133 White 32
4 PM Wed 81 83 SW 18 29 23823 23823 14741 White 30
5 PM Wed 80 81 WSW 14 24 23420 23420 14338 White 28
6 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 14 24 22814 20847 11765 White 25
7 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 14 24 22410 18398 9316 White 23
8 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 10 16 18627 15894 6812 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 16 15081 13332 4250 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 10 16 13380 12212 3130 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 8 12 12274 11023 1941 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 WSW 8 12 11519 10839 1757 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 8 12 11220 10654 1572 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 9 11034 10470 1388 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 5 9 10663 10159 1077 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 5 9 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 5 9 10311 9474 392 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 5 9 10663 10159 1077 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 62 62 WSW 5 9 11519 10839 1757 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 66 67 SSW 3 5 13740 12606 3524 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 71 73 SSW 3 5 18627 15894 6812 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 75 78 SSW 3 5 22814 20847 11765 White 25
11 AM Thu 78 81 SSE 8 12 23420 23420 14338 White 28
12 Noon Thu 79 83 SSE 8 12 23823 23823 14741 White 30
1 PM Thu 79 83 SSE 8 12 23823 23823 14741 White 30
2 PM Thu 79 82 SSW 10 16 23622 23622 14540 White 29
3 PM Thu 79 82 SSW 10 16 23622 23622 14540 White 29
4 PM Thu 78 80 SSW 10 16 23219 23219 14137 White 27
5 PM Thu 78 79 WSW 10 16 23016 22309 13227 White 26
6 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 10 16 22410 18398 9316 White 23
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 10 16 19425 16803 7721 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 9 14 17024 14040 4958 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 9 14 14095 12971 3889 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 9 14 13016 11461 2379 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 6 11 12274 11023 1941 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WSW 6 11 11220 10654 1572 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 6 11 11034 10470 1388 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 5 9 10663 10159 1077 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 5 9 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 5 9 10163 9082 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 5 9 10163 9082 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 5 9 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 5 9 11034 10470 1388 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 63 64 SSW 4 6 12647 11208 2126 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 68 70 SSW 4 6 16109 13688 4606 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 72 76 SSW 4 6 22410 18398 9316 White 23
11 AM Fri 75 80 S 9 14 23219 23219 14137 White 27
12 Noon Fri 77 83 S 9 14 23823 23823 14741 White 30
1 PM Fri 77 84 S 9 14 24020 24020 14938 White 31
2 PM Fri 77 82 SW 13 21 23622 23622 14540 White 29
3 PM Fri 76 80 SW 13 21 23219 23219 14137 White 27
4 PM Fri 76 79 SW 13 21 23016 22309 13227 White 26
5 PM Fri 75 77 WSW 16 26 22612 19113 10031 White 24
6 PM Fri 74 75 WSW 16 26 22206 17632 8550 White 22
7 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 16 26 17858 14875 5793 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 14 24 16109 13688 4606 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 14 24 13740 12606 3524 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 14 24 12274 11023 1941 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 8 12 11034 10470 1388 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 WSW 8 12 10663 10159 1077 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 57 57 WSW 8 12 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 6 11 10163 9082 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 6 11 9488 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 6 11 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 SW 6 11 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 6 11 9488 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 11 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 62 63 WSW 5 9 12274 11023 1941 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 67 70 WSW 5 9 16109 13688 4606 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 71 76 WSW 5 9 22410 18398 9316 White 23
11 AM Sat 75 82 SW 8 12 23622 23622 14540 White 29
12 Noon Sat 77 85 SW 8 12 24215 24215 15133 White 32
1 PM Sat 78 86 SW 8 12 24411 24411 15329 White 33
2 PM Sat 79 86 WSW 12 20 24411 24411 15329 White 33
3 PM Sat 79 85 WSW 12 20 24215 24215 15133 White 32
4 PM Sat 79 83 WSW 12 20 23823 23823 14741 White 30
5 PM Sat 78 80 WSW 14 24 23219 23219 14137 White 27
6 PM Sat 76 77 WSW 14 24 22612 19113 10031 White 24
7 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 14 24 19425 16803 7721 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 14 24 16109 13688 4606 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 14 24 13740 12606 3524 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 14 24 12274 11023 1941 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 9 14 11034 10470 1388 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 WSW 9 14 10663 10159 1077 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 9 14 10477 10012 930 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 6 11 10163 9082 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 6 11 9488 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 6 11 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 5 9 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 5 9 8957 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 5 9 10311 9474 392 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 60 61 WSW 5 9 11220 10654 1572 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 65 68 WSW 5 9 14095 12971 3889 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 69 74 WSW 5 9 19425 16803 7721 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 73 80 SW 8 12 23219 23219 14137 White 27
12 Noon Sun 75 83 SW 8 12 23823 23823 14741 White 30
1 PM Sun 77 86 SW 8 12 24411 24411 15329 White 33
2 PM Sun 78 85 WSW 11 18 24215 24215 15133 White 32
3 PM Sun 78 84 WSW 11 18 24020 24020 14938 White 31
4 PM Sun 78 82 WSW 11 18 23622 23622 14540 White 29
5 PM Sun 77 79 WSW 12 20 23016 22309 13227 White 26
6 PM Sun 75 76 WSW 12 20 22410 18398 9316 White 23
7 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 12 20 18627 15894 6812 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 12 20 16109 13688 4606 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 12 20 13380 12212 3130 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 12 20 11519 10839 1757 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com