Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 WNW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 26 26 WNW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 26 26 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 24 24 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 24 24 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 24 24 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 23 23 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 25 25 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 28 29 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 30 33 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 34 39 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 37 44 NNW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 41 49 NNW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 51 NNW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 45 53 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 47 53 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 47 51 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 47 49 N 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 50 N 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 47 47 N 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 44 44 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 WNW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 WNW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 32 32 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 29 29 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 29 29 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 28 28 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 31 31 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 34 35 ENE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 40 ENE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 42 47 ENE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 44 51 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 48 56 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 57 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 51 58 ENE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 53 59 ENE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 53 57 ENE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 53 55 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 55 56 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 49 49 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 36 36 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 34 34 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 33 33 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 34 34 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 41 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 44 47 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 47 51 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 51 57 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 54 61 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 56 63 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 58 63 N 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 59 63 N 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 60 63 N 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 60 61 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 44 44 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 39 39 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 46 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 49 52 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 57 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 63 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 67 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 61 69 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 63 70 NE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 64 69 NE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 65 69 NE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 51 NW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 54 57 NW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 62 NW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 66 SE 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 69 SE 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 71 SE 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 71 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 70 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 64 68 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 64 65 WSW 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 50 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 56 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 58 63 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 69 SE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 72 SE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 73 SE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 72 SW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 71 SW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 69 SW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 67 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]