Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 10 16 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 SW 10 16 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 SW 8 12 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 8 12 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 8 12 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 6 11 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 6 11 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 6 11 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 SSW 6 12 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 SSW 6 12 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 61 SSW 6 12 10337 9444 362 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 64 68 SW 9 14 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 67 72 SW 9 14 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 69 74 SW 9 14 13372 12571 3489 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 70 74 SW 19 32 13372 12571 3489 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 69 72 SW 19 32 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 69 71 SW 19 32 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 16 25 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 16 25 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 16 25 10337 9444 362 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 19 46 9744 9206 124 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 19 46 9206 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 19 46 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 21 34 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SSW 21 34 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 21 34 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 SW 20 28 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SW 20 28 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 SW 20 28 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 16 20 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SW 16 20 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 16 20 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 SW 11 20 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 SW 11 20 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 SW 11 20 9447 9107 25 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 64 WSW 13 27 11182 10326 1244 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 62 68 WSW 13 27 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 64 70 WSW 13 27 12434 11960 2878 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 65 71 WSW 14 28 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 65 70 WSW 14 28 12434 11960 2878 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 66 69 WSW 14 28 12281 11718 2636 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 65 66 WSW 11 25 11741 10885 1803 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 11 25 11182 10326 1244 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 11 25 10337 9444 362 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 6 11 9306 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 6 11 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 6 11 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 W 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 W 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 55 W 3 8 9107 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 60 NNE 3 10 10039 9305 223 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 59 65 NNE 3 10 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 62 68 NNE 3 10 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 65 71 SW 5 17 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 66 71 SW 5 17 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 67 70 SW 5 17 12434 11960 2878 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 67 68 WSW 3 13 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 3 13 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 3 13 10901 10031 949 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 0 2 10039 9305 223 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 0 2 9306 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 0 2 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 WSW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 WSW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 SW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 SW 1 3 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SW 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 SW 3 8 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 SW 3 8 9306 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 63 SW 3 11 10901 10031 949 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 63 68 SW 3 11 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 65 71 SW 3 11 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 66 72 WSW 6 19 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 66 70 WSW 6 19 12434 11960 2878 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 65 68 WSW 6 19 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 64 65 WSW 9 18 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 62 WSW 9 18 10619 9738 656 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 9 18 9744 9206 124 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 3 5 9306 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 3 5 9107 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 3 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SW 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SW 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SW 3 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SW 2 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 SW 2 6 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 59 SW 2 6 9744 9206 124 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 60 65 SE 3 10 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 63 69 SE 3 10 12281 11718 2636 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 65 71 SE 3 10 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 66 72 S 5 17 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 67 71 S 5 17 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 66 69 S 5 17 12281 11718 2636 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 65 66 SSW 5 14 11741 10885 1803 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 5 14 10901 10031 949 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 14 10337 9444 362 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 0 2 9447 9107 25 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 0 2 9206 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 0 2 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 SW 1 4 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 2 5 9082 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 SW 2 5 9107 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 61 SW 2 5 10337 9444 362 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 62 67 S 3 11 11973 11164 2082 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 64 70 S 3 11 12434 11960 2878 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 66 72 S 3 11 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 67 73 SSW 5 17 12894 12418 3336 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 68 72 SSW 5 17 12741 12266 3184 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 68 71 SSW 5 17 12588 12113 3031 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 67 68 SW 6 17 12127 11442 2360 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 6 17 11462 10606 1524 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 6 17 10901 10031 949 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 2 4 10039 9305 223 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 2 4 9447 9107 25 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 2 4 9107 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]