Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 SW 12 20 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 26 26 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 14 24 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 14 24 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 14 24 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 21 21 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 28 28 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 31 32 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 34 35 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 36 37 WSW 14 23 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 37 38 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 37 38 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 38 38 WSW 16 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 36 36 WSW 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 34 WSW 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 WSW 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 W 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 W 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 W 9 14 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 22 22 WSW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 21 21 WSW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 20 20 WSW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 18 18 W 5 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 18 18 W 5 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 18 18 W 5 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 WNW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 20 20 WNW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 27 WNW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 29 31 WNW 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 36 WNW 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 39 WNW 3 4 9314 9130 48 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 40 WNW 2 3 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 40 WNW 2 3 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 39 40 WNW 2 3 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 W 3 4 9314 9130 48 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 38 38 W 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 36 36 W 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 30 30 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 SW 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 SW 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 SW 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 WSW 6 11 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 6 11 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 6 11 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 8 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 8 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 8 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 WSW 9 16 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 WSW 9 16 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 WSW 9 16 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 WSW 12 21 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 36 37 WSW 12 21 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 39 WSW 12 21 9314 9130 48 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 40 WSW 17 28 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 38 40 WSW 17 28 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 38 39 WSW 17 28 9314 9130 48 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 19 32 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 19 32 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 WSW 19 32 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 WSW 14 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 WSW 14 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 WSW 14 25 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 W 11 20 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 W 11 20 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 24 W 11 20 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 W 9 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 20 20 W 9 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 W 9 13 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 18 18 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 15 15 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 W 8 12 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 15 15 W 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 19 19 W 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 24 25 W 4 8 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 28 30 NW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 34 NW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 36 NW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 37 NNW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 36 38 NNW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 37 NNW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 36 36 NNW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 34 NNW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 NNW 6 10 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 20 20 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 19 19 NW 5 9 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 15 15 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 18 18 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 27 W 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 32 N 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 37 N 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 40 N 3 5 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 42 WNW 3 4 10242 9312 230 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 40 42 WNW 3 4 10242 9312 230 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 41 42 WNW 3 4 10242 9312 230 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 40 40 WSW 2 3 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 WSW 2 3 9314 9130 48 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 WSW 2 3 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 SW 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 SW 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 SW 3 4 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 SW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 26 SW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 SW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 WSW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 WSW 4 6 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 33 WSW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 38 W 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 42 W 3 5 10242 9312 230 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 41 44 W 3 5 11442 9958 876 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 42 44 WSW 3 4 11442 9958 876 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 43 45 WSW 3 4 12500 10229 1147 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 43 44 WSW 3 4 11442 9958 876 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 43 43 W 3 5 10599 9637 555 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 3 5 10242 9312 230 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 40 40 W 3 5 9642 9130 48 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 SW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 SW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 SW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 SW 3 5 9130 9130 48 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]