Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.519075, -118.294555, 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NNW 9 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 9 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 9 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 NNW 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 5 9 5263 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 W 3 5 7526 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 W 3 5 9062 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 46 48 W 3 5 9062 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 48 W 3 4 9062 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 47 W 3 4 8562 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 46 46 W 3 4 8051 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 4 6 6430 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 4 6 5856 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 NNW 4 6 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 N 4 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 4 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 4 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 NNW 3 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 NNW 3 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 NNW 3 4 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 NNW 4 5 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 NNW 4 5 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 NNW 4 5 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 NNW 5 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 8 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 35 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 38 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 37 39 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 38 NNW 12 16 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 36 37 NNW 12 16 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 NNW 12 16 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 N 13 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 N 13 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 N 13 14 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 N 11 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 N 11 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 26 26 N 11 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 26 NNW 10 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 NNW 10 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 NNW 10 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 10 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 10 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 10 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 NNW 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 NW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 37 NW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 38 NW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 38 NNW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 37 NNW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 36 NNW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 N 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 N 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 31 31 N 5 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 29 29 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 NNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 WNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 WNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 WNW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 W 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 W 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 W 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 SSW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 SSW 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 S 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 38 S 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 38 39 S 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 40 S 9 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 38 S 9 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 38 S 9 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 SSE 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 SSE 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 33 33 SSE 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 SSE 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 SSE 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 SSE 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 S 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 S 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 S 5 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 S 6 8 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 37 S 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 39 S 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 40 S 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 40 S 9 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 39 S 9 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 38 38 S 9 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 36 SSE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 35 SSE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 SSE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 S 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 SSW 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 SSW 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 SSW 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 SW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 SW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 SW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 WSW 8 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 S 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 39 S 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 40 S 9 12 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 41 SSE 10 13 5263 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 39 40 SSE 10 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 SSE 10 13 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 ESE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 ESE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 ENE 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 ENE 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 ENE 6 10 4997 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 NNW 6 9 4997 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]