Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.519075, -118.294555, 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 11 18 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 11 18 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 10 16 9892 8021 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 10 16 8901 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 10 16 8901 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 9 13 8901 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 9 13 9892 8021 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 59 59 SE 9 13 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 64 66 S 10 16 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 67 70 S 10 16 13899 12772 4751 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 70 75 S 10 16 18171 15314 7293 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 73 80 S 13 21 24153 19490 11469 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 75 83 S 13 21 25252 23773 15752 White 28
1 PM Tue 78 87 S 13 21 26002 26002 17981 White 32
2 PM Tue 78 86 SSW 18 29 25815 25815 17794 White 31
3 PM Tue 79 85 SSW 18 29 25627 25627 17606 White 30
4 PM Tue 79 84 SSW 18 29 25440 24426 16405 White 29
5 PM Tue 78 81 SW 14 24 24752 21413 13392 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 76 77 SW 14 24 20387 17139 9118 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 14 24 15538 13489 5468 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 68 68 WSW 9 14 13184 11818 3797 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 14 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 14 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 9 14 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 9 14 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 9 14 10573 10088 2067 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 8 12 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 59 59 NW 8 12 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 58 58 NW 8 12 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 4 6 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 4 6 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 63 63 NW 4 6 11126 10562 2541 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 68 69 NNW 3 5 13544 12408 4387 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 72 75 NNW 3 5 18171 15314 7293 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 75 79 NNW 3 5 23271 18671 10650 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 76 81 SSE 11 18 24752 21413 13392 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 80 86 SSE 11 18 25815 25815 17794 White 31
1 PM Wed 82 88 SSE 11 18 26189 26189 18168 White 33
2 PM Wed 82 86 SSW 17 27 25815 25815 17794 White 31
3 PM Wed 81 84 SSW 17 27 25440 24426 16405 White 29
4 PM Wed 80 82 SSW 17 27 25063 22715 14694 White 27
5 PM Wed 78 79 SW 14 24 23271 18671 10650 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 14 24 18912 16272 8251 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 14 24 17373 14217 6196 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 10 16 14434 13133 5112 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 16 13544 12408 4387 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 10 16 12820 11295 3274 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 10 16 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 WNW 10 16 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 10 16 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 8 12 11126 10562 2541 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 61 61 WNW 8 12 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 8 12 10573 10088 2067 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 9 10573 10088 2067 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 9 10942 10379 2358 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 9 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 70 71 WNW 4 6 14434 13133 5112 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 73 75 WNW 4 6 18171 15314 7293 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 76 79 WNW 4 6 23271 18671 10650 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 78 82 SSE 11 18 25063 22715 14694 White 27
12 Noon Thu 80 85 SSE 11 18 25627 25627 17606 White 30
1 PM Thu 81 86 SSE 11 18 25815 25815 17794 White 31
2 PM Thu 81 84 SSW 16 25 25440 24426 16405 White 29
3 PM Thu 80 82 SSW 16 25 25063 22715 14694 White 27
4 PM Thu 79 80 SSW 16 25 24153 19490 11469 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 13 21 20387 17139 9118 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 13 21 17373 14217 6196 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 13 21 14434 13133 5112 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 11 17 13184 11818 3797 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 11 17 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 11 17 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 9 14 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 WNW 9 14 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 9 14 10942 10379 2358 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 8 12 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 12 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 8 12 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 11 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 11 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 11 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 68 69 WSW 5 9 13544 12408 4387 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 72 74 WSW 5 9 17373 14217 6196 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 74 77 WSW 5 9 20387 17139 9118 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 76 82 S 11 18 25063 22715 14694 White 27
12 Noon Fri 77 84 S 11 18 25440 24426 16405 White 29
1 PM Fri 77 84 S 11 18 25440 24426 16405 White 29
2 PM Fri 77 82 SW 16 25 25063 22715 14694 White 27
3 PM Fri 77 81 SW 16 25 24752 21413 13392 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 76 79 SW 16 25 23271 18671 10650 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 75 77 WSW 14 24 20387 17139 9118 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 73 74 WSW 14 24 17373 14217 6196 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 14 24 13899 12772 4751 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 12 20 13184 11818 3797 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 20 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 20 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 10 16 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WNW 10 16 11126 10562 2541 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 10 16 10942 10379 2358 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 9 14 10573 10088 2067 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 58 58 WNW 9 14 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 9 14 9892 8021 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 6 11 9892 8021 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 6 11 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 6 11 10942 10379 2358 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 66 67 WNW 5 9 12820 11295 3274 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 70 73 WNW 5 9 16501 13840 5819 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 72 77 WNW 5 9 20387 17139 9118 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 74 81 SW 10 16 24752 21413 13392 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 76 84 SW 10 16 25440 24426 16405 White 29
1 PM Sat 77 85 SW 10 16 25627 25627 17606 White 30
2 PM Sat 78 85 WSW 14 24 25627 25627 17606 White 30
3 PM Sat 79 85 WSW 14 24 25627 25627 17606 White 30
4 PM Sat 79 83 WSW 14 24 25252 23773 15752 White 28
5 PM Sat 78 80 W 14 24 24153 19490 11469 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 75 76 W 14 24 18912 16272 8251 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 14 24 15538 13489 5468 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 20 13544 12408 4387 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 20 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 20 11310 10746 2725 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 11 18 11126 10562 2541 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 WNW 11 18 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 11 18 10573 10088 2067 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 9 14 10241 8896 875 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 9 14 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 9 14 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 8 12 10094 8318 297 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 8 12 10388 9875 1854 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 8 12 10758 10233 2212 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 64 65 W 5 9 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 68 71 W 5 9 14434 13133 5112 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 71 76 W 5 9 18912 16272 8251 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 74 81 WSW 10 16 24752 21413 13392 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 76 84 WSW 10 16 25440 24426 16405 White 29
1 PM Sun 78 87 WSW 10 16 26002 26002 17981 White 32
2 PM Sun 80 88 WSW 13 21 26189 26189 18168 White 33
3 PM Sun 81 87 WSW 13 21 26002 26002 17981 White 32
4 PM Sun 81 85 WSW 13 21 25627 25627 17606 White 30
5 PM Sun 80 83 WSW 13 21 25252 23773 15752 White 28
6 PM Sun 77 78 WSW 13 21 22051 17933 9912 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 13 21 16501 13840 5819 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 69 69 WNW 11 18 13544 12408 4387 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 66 66 WNW 11 18 12452 11112 3091 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 11 18 11894 10929 2908 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com