Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 25 36 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 S 25 36 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 23 34 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 S 23 34 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 S 23 34 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 S 21 33 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 21 33 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 21 33 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 53 SSW 21 33 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 56 59 SSW 21 33 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 58 63 SSW 21 33 13144 11723 2223 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 61 68 SW 16 24 16476 13820 4320 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 63 71 SW 16 24 18932 16271 6771 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 64 72 SW 16 24 21679 17153 7653 White 21
2 PM Tue 65 73 SW 17 26 21884 17961 8461 White 22
3 PM Tue 66 73 SW 17 26 21884 17961 8461 White 22
4 PM Tue 67 72 SW 17 26 21679 17153 7653 White 21
5 PM Tue 66 69 SW 14 23 17366 14173 4673 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 65 66 SW 14 23 14349 13102 3602 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 14 23 13144 11723 2223 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 12 19 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 12 19 10720 10203 703 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 12 19 10354 9769 269 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 52 52 SSE 9 13 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SSE 9 13 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 9 13 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SE 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SE 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 11 17 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 58 59 S 12 19 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 62 64 S 12 19 13508 12367 2867 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 65 68 S 12 19 16476 13820 4320 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 68 72 SSW 16 24 21679 17153 7653 White 21
12 Noon Wed 70 75 SSW 16 24 22292 19685 10185 White 24
1 PM Wed 71 77 SSW 16 24 22698 22698 13198 White 26
2 PM Wed 72 75 WSW 19 29 22292 19685 10185 White 24
3 PM Wed 72 75 WSW 19 29 22292 19685 10185 White 24
4 PM Wed 72 74 WSW 19 29 22087 18710 9210 White 23
5 PM Wed 71 72 WSW 17 26 21679 17153 7653 White 21
6 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 17 26 17366 14173 4673 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 17 26 14349 13102 3602 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 14 23 13144 11723 2223 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 14 23 11776 10899 1399 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 14 23 10907 10350 850 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 13 20 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 13 20 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 13 20 10354 9769 269 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 53 53 SSW 12 19 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 12 19 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 51 51 SSW 12 19 9772 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SSW 14 21 9772 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 14 21 10354 9769 269 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 59 59 SSW 14 21 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 64 65 SSW 11 17 13869 12737 3237 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 67 69 SSW 11 17 17366 14173 4673 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 70 73 SSW 11 17 21884 17961 8461 White 22
11 AM Thu 72 76 SW 11 17 22495 22495 12995 White 25
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SW 11 17 22495 22495 12995 White 25
1 PM Thu 73 78 SW 11 17 22901 22901 13401 White 27
2 PM Thu 73 77 WSW 14 23 22698 22698 13198 White 26
3 PM Thu 73 76 WSW 14 23 22495 22495 12995 White 25
4 PM Thu 73 75 WSW 14 23 22292 19685 10185 White 24
5 PM Thu 72 73 WSW 14 23 21884 17961 8461 White 22
6 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 14 23 18179 15291 5791 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 14 23 15488 13463 3963 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 10 13508 12367 2867 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 10 11776 10899 1399 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 10 10907 10350 850 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 8 12 10720 10203 703 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 8 12 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 8 12 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 54 54 SW 6 10 10354 9769 269 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 53 53 SW 6 10 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 10 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 52 52 SW 8 12 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 55 55 SW 8 12 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 12 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 64 65 SW 8 11 13869 12737 3237 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 67 70 SW 8 11 18179 15291 5791 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 69 73 SW 8 11 21884 17961 8461 White 22
11 AM Fri 71 76 SW 12 19 22495 22495 12995 White 25
12 Noon Fri 72 78 SW 12 19 22901 22901 13401 White 27
1 PM Fri 72 79 SW 12 19 23104 23104 13604 White 28
2 PM Fri 72 77 WSW 16 24 22698 22698 13198 White 26
3 PM Fri 72 76 WSW 16 24 22495 22495 12995 White 25
4 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 16 24 22087 18710 9210 White 23
5 PM Fri 70 72 WSW 18 27 21679 17153 7653 White 21
6 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 18 27 17366 14173 4673 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 18 27 14349 13102 3602 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 17 25 13144 11723 2223 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 17 25 11776 10899 1399 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 17 25 10907 10350 850 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 18 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 12 18 10354 9769 269 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 12 18 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 53 53 SW 12 18 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 51 51 SW 12 18 9772 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 12 18 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 14 23 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SW 14 23 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 56 56 SW 14 23 10720 10203 703 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 61 62 SW 14 21 12774 11269 1769 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 64 67 SW 14 21 15488 13463 3963 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 65 70 SW 14 21 18179 15291 5791 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 67 74 WSW 11 17 22087 18710 9210 White 23
12 Noon Sat 68 76 WSW 11 17 22495 22495 12995 White 25
1 PM Sat 69 77 WSW 11 17 22698 22698 13198 White 26
2 PM Sat 70 76 WSW 14 23 22495 22495 12995 White 25
3 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 14 23 22292 19685 10185 White 24
4 PM Sat 69 73 WSW 14 23 21884 17961 8461 White 22
5 PM Sat 68 70 WSW 17 25 18179 15291 5791 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 66 67 WSW 17 25 15488 13463 3963 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 17 25 13508 12367 2867 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 14 23 12400 11084 1584 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 14 23 11093 10528 1028 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 14 23 10533 10056 556 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 SW 11 17 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 11 17 10058 9500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 51 51 SW 11 17 9772 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SW 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SW 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SW 11 17 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 8 12 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 SW 8 12 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SW 8 12 10206 9500 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 58 59 SW 8 11 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 62 65 SW 8 11 13869 12737 3237 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 65 70 SW 8 11 18179 15291 5791 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 67 74 WSW 10 16 22087 18710 9210 White 23
12 Noon Sun 69 77 WSW 10 16 22698 22698 13198 White 26
1 PM Sun 70 79 WSW 10 16 23104 23104 13604 White 28
2 PM Sun 71 78 WSW 13 20 22901 22901 13401 White 27
3 PM Sun 71 77 WSW 13 20 22698 22698 13198 White 26
4 PM Sun 71 75 WSW 13 20 22292 19685 10185 White 24
5 PM Sun 70 72 W 14 23 21679 17153 7653 White 21
6 PM Sun 68 69 W 14 23 17366 14173 4673 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 14 23 13869 12737 3237 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 12 18 12774 11269 1769 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 12 18 11279 10713 1213 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 12 18 10533 10056 556 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com