Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 46 46 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 45 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 45 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 44 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 45 45 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 52 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 59 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 61 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 57 57 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 47 47 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 46 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 45 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 44 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 44 44 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 44 44 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 43 43 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 43 43 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 45 45 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 50 51 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 56 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 56 59 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 58 62 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 59 63 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 59 61 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 59 60 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 59 60 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 45 45 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 47 48 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 52 54 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 57 60 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 59 63 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 60 64 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 61 64 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 61 63 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 60 61 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 44 44 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 50 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 53 54 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 55 56 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 57 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 57 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 56 57 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 49 49 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 47 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 45 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 41 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 41 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 49 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 54 SSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 57 SSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 58 SSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 59 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 58 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 56 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 53 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 50 50 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 47 47 SW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 46 47 SSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 49 51 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 51 54 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 52 55 SSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 52 55 WSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 53 55 WSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 54 WSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]