Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 ESE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 ESE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 59 59 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 63 64 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 65 67 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 68 71 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 69 71 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 71 74 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 69 72 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 68 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 67 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 66 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 60 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 58 58 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 56 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 53 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 57 57 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 60 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 62 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 64 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 65 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 65 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 65 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 63 64 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 62 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 61 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 57 57 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 56 57 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 60 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 60 64 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 67 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 69 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 70 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 67 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 67 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 63 65 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 62 63 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 60 60 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 53 53 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 52 52 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 57 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 62 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 66 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 70 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 66 73 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 67 75 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 73 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 72 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 66 70 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 65 67 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 64 65 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 55 56 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 61 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 62 67 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 65 71 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 67 74 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 68 76 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 69 75 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 69 74 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 68 72 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 65 66 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 56 57 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 59 61 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 62 66 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 65 70 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 67 73 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 68 75 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 69 75 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 69 74 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 73 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 70 W 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 66 67 W 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]