Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 WNW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 WNW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 WNW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 WNW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 WNW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 NW 3 4 5349 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 NW 2 3 5926 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 W 2 3 5926 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 49 SW 3 4 5926 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 50 SW 3 4 6485 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 48 SW 3 4 5349 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 WSW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 WSW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 WNW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 NW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 NW 3 4 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NW 4 6 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 N 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 44 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 41 43 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 41 42 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 N 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 NNW 12 17 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 NNW 13 19 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 NW 16 23 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 NW 17 24 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 NW 18 25 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 NW 18 25 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 NW 18 25 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NW 17 24 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NW 17 24 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 NW 17 24 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 NW 16 23 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 NW 16 23 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NW 16 23 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 NW 14 20 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 NW 14 20 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 NNW 14 20 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 N 13 19 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 N 13 19 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 43 N 12 17 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 41 43 NNE 11 16 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 41 43 NNE 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 42 NNE 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 41 41 NNE 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 40 NNE 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 N 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 NNW 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 NNW 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 NNW 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 NW 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 NW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 WNW 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 WNW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 NW 5 8 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 S 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 SE 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 44 SE 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 43 44 SE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 44 SE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 SSE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 SSE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 SSE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 S 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 SSW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 SSW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 SW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 WNW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 N 6 9 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 44 E 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 44 ESE 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 43 ESE 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 43 ESE 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 E 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 N 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 NW 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 NW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 N 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 46 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 46 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 45 45 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 44 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 E 10 14 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 ENE 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 NNE 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 N 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 NNW 8 11 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 NW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 9 12 4997 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]