Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 W 32 47 7371 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 W 32 47 6556 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 W 32 47 6556 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 23 W 29 43 6204 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 W 29 40 6204 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 W 29 36 6204 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 W 29 33 6556 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 W 26 29 6967 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 29 W 21 29 8060 9085 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 31 32 W 19 27 8739 9085 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 33 35 WSW 18 26 9415 9415 330 White 0
11 AM Sun 35 37 WSW 18 25 9864 9864 779 White 0
12 Noon Sun 36 38 SW 18 23 10081 10081 996 White 5
1 PM Sun 36 38 SW 18 23 10081 10081 996 White 5
2 PM Sun 37 38 SW 17 24 10081 10081 996 White 5
3 PM Sun 35 36 WSW 18 24 9640 9640 555 White 0
4 PM Sun 35 35 W 16 20 9415 9415 330 White 0
5 PM Sun 35 35 WNW 13 18 9415 9415 330 White 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 NW 12 18 8739 9085 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 30 30 NNW 11 16 8287 9085 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 NW 11 16 8060 9085 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 NW 11 14 7833 9085 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 NW 11 14 7833 9085 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 NW 12 17 7833 9085 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 NW 12 16 7833 9085 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 NW 12 16 7606 9085 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 NW 12 14 7606 9085 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NW 13 18 7606 9085 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 26 26 NW 17 20 7371 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 26 26 NW 18 21 7371 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 NNW 21 25 7606 9085 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 NNW 24 27 7606 9085 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 29 30 NNW 24 28 8287 9085 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 35 37 NNW 24 32 9864 9864 779 White 0
10 AM Mon 38 42 NNW 23 31 10947 10947 1862 White 9
11 AM Mon 41 47 NNW 20 26 12022 12022 2937 White 14
12 Noon Mon 44 51 NNW 17 23 12872 12872 3787 White 18
1 PM Mon 46 53 N 13 19 13289 13289 4204 White 20
2 PM Mon 48 54 N 11 17 13497 13497 4412 White 21
3 PM Mon 49 54 N 10 16 13497 13497 4412 White 21
4 PM Mon 49 52 NNW 10 16 13081 13081 3996 White 19
5 PM Mon 49 50 NNW 10 16 12663 12663 3578 White 17
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 10 17 12022 12022 2937 White 14
7 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 11 17 11593 11593 2508 White 12
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 11 18 10947 10947 1862 White 9
9 PM Mon 41 41 W 11 18 10731 10731 1646 White 8
10 PM Mon 40 40 W 11 18 10515 10515 1430 White 7
11 PM Mon 39 39 W 11 18 10298 10298 1213 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 11 17 10081 10081 996 White 5
1 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 16 9864 9864 779 White 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 14 9864 9864 779 White 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 16 9640 9640 555 White 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 17 9640 9640 555 White 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 17 9640 9640 555 White 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 14 9864 9864 779 White 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 WNW 10 13 10081 10081 996 White 5
8 AM Tue 40 41 WNW 10 13 10731 10731 1646 White 8
9 AM Tue 43 45 WNW 11 14 11593 11593 2508 White 12
10 AM Tue 46 50 W 12 18 12663 12663 3578 White 17
11 AM Tue 49 55 W 12 19 13705 13705 4620 White 22
12 Noon Tue 52 59 W 11 18 14533 14533 5448 White 26
1 PM Tue 54 61 WSW 10 17 14945 14945 5860 White 28
2 PM Tue 56 62 SW 10 16 15149 15149 6064 White 29
3 PM Tue 57 62 SW 11 17 15149 15149 6064 White 29
4 PM Tue 57 60 WSW 12 19 14739 14739 5654 White 27
5 PM Tue 57 58 WSW 13 20 14327 14327 5242 White 25
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 13 20 13705 13705 4620 White 22
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 20 13081 13081 3996 White 19
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 12 19 12450 12450 3365 White 16
9 PM Tue 47 47 W 12 18 12022 12022 2937 White 14
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 11 18 11808 11808 2723 White 13
11 PM Tue 44 44 W 11 17 11378 11378 2293 White 11
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 W 11 16 11378 11378 2293 White 11
1 AM Wed 43 43 WNW 10 16 11163 11163 2078 White 10
2 AM Wed 43 43 WNW 10 14 11163 11163 2078 White 10
3 AM Wed 42 42 WNW 10 14 10947 10947 1862 White 9
4 AM Wed 42 42 WNW 9 13 10947 10947 1862 White 9
5 AM Wed 42 42 WNW 9 13 10947 10947 1862 White 9
6 AM Wed 43 43 WNW 9 12 11163 11163 2078 White 10
7 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 9 12 11593 11593 2508 White 12
8 AM Wed 47 48 WNW 9 12 12236 12236 3151 White 15
9 AM Wed 51 53 W 9 13 13289 13289 4204 White 20
10 AM Wed 54 58 SW 10 14 14327 14327 5242 White 25
11 AM Wed 57 62 SSW 10 16 15149 15149 6064 White 29
12 Noon Wed 60 66 SSW 10 17 15957 15957 6872 White 33
1 PM Wed 61 66 S 11 18 15957 15957 6872 White 33
2 PM Wed 62 67 S 11 18 16158 16158 7073 White 34
3 PM Wed 62 65 S 11 18 15755 15755 6670 White 32
4 PM Wed 62 64 S 12 18 15553 15553 6468 White 31
5 PM Wed 61 62 S 12 18 15149 15149 6064 White 29
6 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 12 17 14327 14327 5242 White 25
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 11 17 13705 13705 4620 White 22
8 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 10 16 13081 13081 3996 White 19
9 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 10 16 12663 12663 3578 White 17
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 14 12450 12450 3365 White 16
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 14 12236 12236 3151 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 9 14 12022 12022 2937 White 14
1 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 9 13 12022 12022 2937 White 14
2 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 9 13 11808 11808 2723 White 13
3 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 9 13 11593 11593 2508 White 12
4 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 9 13 11378 11378 2293 White 11
5 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 9 13 11378 11378 2293 White 11
6 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 9 13 11593 11593 2508 White 12
7 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 9 12 11808 11808 2723 White 13
8 AM Thu 48 48 WNW 9 12 12236 12236 3151 White 15
9 AM Thu 51 52 W 9 13 13081 13081 3996 White 19
10 AM Thu 55 58 SSW 10 14 14327 14327 5242 White 25
11 AM Thu 58 62 S 10 16 15149 15149 6064 White 29
12 Noon Thu 59 64 S 11 17 15553 15553 6468 White 31
1 PM Thu 60 65 S 11 18 15755 15755 6670 White 32
2 PM Thu 61 65 S 12 19 15755 15755 6670 White 32
3 PM Thu 61 64 S 12 20 15553 15553 6468 White 31
4 PM Thu 61 63 SSW 13 21 15352 15352 6267 White 30
5 PM Thu 60 61 SSW 13 21 14945 14945 5860 White 28
6 PM Thu 57 57 SW 13 21 14120 14120 5035 White 24
7 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 13 20 13497 13497 4412 White 21
8 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 13 19 12872 12872 3787 White 18
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 13 19 12450 12450 3365 White 16
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 12 18 12450 12450 3365 White 16
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 18 12236 12236 3151 White 15
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 12 18 12022 12022 2937 White 14
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 12 18 11808 11808 2723 White 13
2 AM Fri 46 46 W 12 18 11808 11808 2723 White 13
3 AM Fri 45 45 W 12 18 11593 11593 2508 White 12
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 11 17 11378 11378 2293 White 11
5 AM Fri 44 44 W 11 17 11378 11378 2293 White 11
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 11 16 11593 11593 2508 White 12
7 AM Fri 46 46 WNW 10 14 11808 11808 2723 White 13
8 AM Fri 48 48 WNW 10 14 12236 12236 3151 White 15
9 AM Fri 51 52 WNW 10 14 13081 13081 3996 White 19
10 AM Fri 55 58 W 11 14 14327 14327 5242 White 25
11 AM Fri 58 62 W 11 16 15149 15149 6064 White 29
12 Noon Fri 59 64 W 11 17 15553 15553 6468 White 31
1 PM Fri 60 65 WSW 12 17 15755 15755 6670 White 32
2 PM Fri 61 65 SW 12 18 15755 15755 6670 White 32
3 PM Fri 61 64 SW 12 19 15553 15553 6468 White 31
4 PM Fri 60 62 WSW 12 19 15149 15149 6064 White 29
5 PM Fri 59 60 WSW 12 20 14739 14739 5654 White 27
6 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 12 20 13912 13912 4827 White 23
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 12 20 13497 13497 4412 White 21
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 20 12872 12872 3787 White 18
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 12 20 12450 12450 3365 White 16
10 PM Fri 48 48 W 12 19 12236 12236 3151 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]