Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 WSW 20 29 7703 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 20 28 7703 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 19 27 7703 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 19 26 6867 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 18 26 6867 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 18 25 6867 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 18 26 6867 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 19 26 10081 9085 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 72 73 WSW 19 27 12359 11071 1986 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 76 79 SW 20 29 15141 13366 4281 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 79 84 SW 21 31 19253 16738 7653 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 82 89 SSW 24 35 20821 20821 11736 White 29
12 Noon Tue 84 92 SW 25 37 21412 21412 12327 White 32
1 PM Tue 85 93 SW 26 40 21610 21610 12525 White 33
2 PM Tue 85 92 SW 27 41 21412 21412 12327 White 32
3 PM Tue 85 90 SW 27 41 21018 21018 11933 White 30
4 PM Tue 85 88 WSW 26 40 20622 20622 11537 White 28
5 PM Tue 84 85 WSW 26 39 20026 17543 8458 White 25
6 PM Tue 81 81 WSW 25 39 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 25 37 14129 13015 3930 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 24 36 12722 11251 2166 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 71 71 W 21 31 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 19 27 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 17 24 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 16 21 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 14 20 10548 10069 984 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 66 66 W 13 19 10369 9824 739 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 19 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 19 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 19 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 67 67 W 12 17 10548 10069 984 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 71 71 W 10 13 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 76 77 W 9 12 13783 12661 3576 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 79 81 WSW 10 14 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 82 85 S 12 17 20026 17543 8458 White 25
11 AM Wed 83 87 SE 14 20 20423 18986 9901 White 27
12 Noon Wed 85 90 SSE 16 23 21018 21018 11933 White 30
1 PM Wed 86 90 S 17 25 21018 21018 11933 White 30
2 PM Wed 87 91 S 18 25 21215 21215 12130 White 31
3 PM Wed 87 90 SSW 17 25 21018 21018 11933 White 30
4 PM Wed 87 89 WSW 16 23 20821 20821 11736 White 29
5 PM Wed 86 87 W 14 20 20423 18986 9901 White 27
6 PM Wed 83 83 W 13 18 18554 15860 6775 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 12 17 16122 13712 4627 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 78 78 WNW 11 16 14129 13015 3930 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 76 76 WNW 10 14 13434 12302 3217 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 10 13 12722 11251 2166 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 10 13 12359 11071 1986 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WNW 9 13 11723 10891 1806 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 9 12 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 9 12 11092 10529 1444 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 9 12 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 9 13 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 10 13 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 71 71 W 10 14 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 75 75 WSW 11 16 13080 11620 2535 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 79 80 SW 11 17 16122 13712 4627 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 82 84 S 12 17 19253 16738 7653 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 84 86 SSE 13 18 20225 18288 9203 White 26
11 AM Thu 85 88 SE 13 19 20622 20622 11537 White 28
12 Noon Thu 86 90 SSE 14 20 21018 21018 11933 White 30
1 PM Thu 87 91 S 14 21 21215 21215 12130 White 31
2 PM Thu 87 90 SSW 16 21 21018 21018 11933 White 30
3 PM Thu 87 90 SW 16 23 21018 21018 11933 White 30
4 PM Thu 86 88 WSW 16 23 20622 20622 11537 White 28
5 PM Thu 84 85 WSW 16 23 20026 17543 8458 White 25
6 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 16 21 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 14 20 15141 13366 4281 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 13 19 13434 12302 3217 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 12 17 12722 11251 2166 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 11 16 11723 10891 1806 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 10 14 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 10 14 11092 10529 1444 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 69 69 W 10 14 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 68 68 W 10 14 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 10 14 10369 9824 739 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 14 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 14 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 11 14 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 71 71 WSW 11 16 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 75 76 SW 11 16 13434 12302 3217 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 78 80 SSW 12 17 16122 13712 4627 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 80 83 S 12 17 18554 15860 6775 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 82 87 S 13 18 20423 18986 9901 White 27
12 Noon Fri 83 89 S 13 19 20821 20821 11736 White 29
1 PM Fri 84 90 S 14 20 21018 21018 11933 White 30
2 PM Fri 84 89 SSW 16 21 20821 20821 11736 White 29
3 PM Fri 84 88 SW 16 23 20622 20622 11537 White 28
4 PM Fri 83 86 WSW 17 23 20225 18288 9203 White 26
5 PM Fri 82 84 WSW 17 24 19253 16738 7653 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 80 81 WSW 16 23 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 16 21 13783 12661 3576 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 74 74 W 14 20 12722 11251 2166 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 71 71 W 13 18 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 12 17 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 68 68 W 11 16 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 10 14 10548 10069 984 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 10 14 10369 9824 739 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 65 65 WNW 10 13 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 10 13 10081 9085 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 10 13 9859 9085 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 10 13 10081 9085 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 66 66 W 9 13 10369 9824 739 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 70 70 WSW 9 13 11092 10529 1444 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 74 75 SW 9 13 13080 11620 2535 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 77 80 SSW 9 13 16122 13712 4627 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 79 84 S 10 13 19253 16738 7653 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 81 88 S 10 14 20622 20622 11537 White 28
12 Noon Sat 82 90 S 11 16 21018 21018 11933 White 30
1 PM Sat 84 92 S 12 17 21412 21412 12327 White 32
2 PM Sat 85 93 SSW 13 19 21610 21610 12525 White 33
3 PM Sat 85 91 SW 14 21 21215 21215 12130 White 31
4 PM Sat 84 88 WSW 16 23 20622 20622 11537 White 28
5 PM Sat 83 85 WSW 17 24 20026 17543 8458 White 25
6 PM Sat 80 81 WSW 17 24 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 16 23 13783 12661 3576 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 16 21 12359 11071 1986 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 14 20 11273 10710 1625 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 69 69 W 13 19 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 67 67 W 13 18 10548 10069 984 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 W 12 18 10369 9824 739 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 12 18 10081 9085 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 12 17 9859 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 12 17 8876 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 62 62 W 12 17 8876 9085 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 63 63 W 12 17 9859 9085 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 11 16 10225 9085 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 69 69 WSW 11 16 10911 10356 1271 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 72 73 SW 10 14 12359 11071 1986 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 75 78 SSW 10 14 14129 13015 3930 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 77 82 S 10 14 17808 14880 5795 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 79 86 S 10 14 20225 18288 9203 White 26
12 Noon Sun 81 89 S 11 14 20821 20821 11736 White 29
1 PM Sun 82 91 SSW 11 16 21215 21215 12130 White 31
2 PM Sun 83 91 SSW 12 18 21215 21215 12130 White 31
3 PM Sun 84 91 SW 13 19 21215 21215 12130 White 31
4 PM Sun 84 89 SW 14 20 20821 20821 11736 White 29
5 PM Sun 82 85 SW 14 21 20026 17543 8458 White 25
6 PM Sun 80 81 SW 16 21 17002 14054 4969 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 16 21 13434 12302 3217 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 16 21 12359 11071 1986 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 14 21 11092 10529 1444 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 14 20 10729 10212 1127 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com