Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 26 26 W 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 W 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 W 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 WSW 8 12 5140 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 40 WSW 8 12 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 WSW 8 12 7978 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 8 12 7978 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 8 12 7978 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 WSW 8 12 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 W 6 11 5745 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 35 W 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 W 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 WSW 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 28 WSW 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 27 27 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 4 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 N 2 3 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 N 2 3 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 N 2 3 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 ENE 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 ENE 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 ENE 3 5 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 31 NE 5 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 33 NE 5 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 34 NE 5 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 32 34 NE 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 31 32 NE 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 30 30 NE 10 16 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 28 28 NE 10 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 26 26 NE 10 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 24 24 NE 10 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 22 22 ENE 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 21 ENE 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 21 21 ENE 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 E 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 E 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 21 21 E 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 21 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 24 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 ESE 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 32 33 E 5 9 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 37 E 5 9 5140 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 39 E 5 9 6329 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 40 ENE 6 11 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 38 39 ENE 6 11 6329 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 36 ENE 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 33 33 ENE 5 9 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 31 31 ENE 5 9 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 ENE 5 9 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 SSE 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 SSE 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 SSE 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 S 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 S 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 S 5 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 S 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 S 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 S 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 S 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 S 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 S 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 27 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 SSW 8 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 40 SSW 8 11 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 41 SSW 8 11 7444 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 SW 8 12 7444 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 40 SW 8 12 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 38 SW 8 12 5745 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 36 36 SSW 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 SSW 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 SSW 6 10 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 S 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 S 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 S 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 S 9 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 S 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 37 S 9 12 5140 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 40 S 9 12 6895 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 42 S 9 12 7978 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 41 SW 9 12 7444 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 41 SW 9 12 7444 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 SW 9 12 6329 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 37 37 S 6 11 5140 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 S 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 11 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 SSE 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 SSE 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 SSE 8 12 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 S 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 S 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 S 9 13 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 S 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 S 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 S 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 29 29 SSW 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 SSW 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 SSW 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SSE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 SSE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 SSE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 SE 10 14 5745 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 SE 10 14 7444 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 43 SE 10 14 8497 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 NNE 10 14 8497 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 43 NNE 10 14 8497 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 NNE 10 14 6329 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 37 37 NE 9 14 5140 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 34 34 NE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 NE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 ESE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 ESE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 ESE 9 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 SE 10 14 4997 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]