Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 16 25 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SW 16 25 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 13 21 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SW 13 21 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SW 13 21 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 11 18 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SW 11 18 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 SW 11 18 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 55 SW 11 18 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 58 61 SW 11 18 11921 10934 1434 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 60 65 SW 11 18 13573 12434 2934 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 62 69 SW 12 20 16630 13881 4381 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 64 72 SW 12 20 19045 16418 6918 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 66 75 SW 12 20 21998 18820 9320 White 23
2 PM Tue 67 75 SW 13 21 21998 18820 9320 White 23
3 PM Tue 68 75 SW 13 21 21998 18820 9320 White 23
4 PM Tue 67 72 SW 13 21 19045 16418 6918 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 67 70 SW 11 18 17503 14367 4867 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 66 67 SW 11 18 14560 13166 3666 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 11 18 13210 11862 2362 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 6 11 11129 10563 1063 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 6 11 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 6 11 9868 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 4 6 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SSE 4 6 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 4 6 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 62 63 S 5 9 12842 11303 1803 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 66 68 S 5 9 15664 13525 4025 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 69 72 S 5 9 19045 16418 6918 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 72 76 SW 11 18 22201 20044 10544 White 24
12 Noon Wed 73 78 SW 11 18 22607 22607 13107 White 26
1 PM Wed 74 79 SW 11 18 22809 22809 13309 White 27
2 PM Wed 75 79 SW 14 24 22809 22809 13309 White 27
3 PM Wed 75 78 SW 14 24 22607 22607 13107 White 26
4 PM Wed 74 76 SW 14 24 22201 20044 10544 White 24
5 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 13 21 21793 18081 8581 White 22
6 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 13 21 17503 14367 4867 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 13 21 15664 13525 4025 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 8 12 13573 12434 2934 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 8 12 12469 11119 1619 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 8 12 11129 10563 1063 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 57 57 S 6 11 10757 10232 732 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 6 11 10570 10085 585 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 11 10570 10085 585 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 11 10570 10085 585 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 6 11 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 11 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 11 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 6 11 10757 10232 732 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 6 11 11314 10749 1249 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 64 65 S 5 9 13573 12434 2934 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 68 70 S 5 9 17503 14367 4867 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 71 74 S 5 9 21793 18081 8581 White 22
11 AM Thu 73 77 SW 10 16 22404 22404 12904 White 25
12 Noon Thu 74 79 SW 10 16 22809 22809 13309 White 27
1 PM Thu 75 80 SW 10 16 23012 23012 13512 White 28
2 PM Thu 75 80 WSW 11 18 23012 23012 13512 White 28
3 PM Thu 75 79 WSW 11 18 22809 22809 13309 White 27
4 PM Thu 74 77 WSW 11 18 22404 22404 12904 White 25
5 PM Thu 73 75 WSW 12 19 21998 18820 9320 White 23
6 PM Thu 70 71 WSW 12 19 18302 15461 5961 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 12 19 14560 13166 3666 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 6 11 13210 11862 2362 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 6 11 11314 10749 1249 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 6 11 10943 10379 879 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 5 9 10570 10085 585 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 5 9 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 5 9 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 55 55 SSW 6 11 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 54 54 SSW 6 11 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 53 53 SSW 6 11 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 54 54 SSW 6 11 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 6 11 10757 10232 732 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 6 11 11921 10934 1434 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 65 66 SW 5 9 13932 12802 3302 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 69 72 SW 5 9 19045 16418 6918 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 71 75 SW 5 9 21998 18820 9320 White 23
11 AM Fri 72 78 SW 10 16 22607 22607 13107 White 26
12 Noon Fri 73 80 SW 10 16 23012 23012 13512 White 28
1 PM Fri 74 81 SW 10 16 23214 23214 13714 White 29
2 PM Fri 74 80 WSW 11 18 23012 23012 13512 White 28
3 PM Fri 73 78 WSW 11 18 22607 22607 13107 White 26
4 PM Fri 72 76 WSW 11 18 22201 20044 10544 White 24
5 PM Fri 70 72 WSW 13 23 19045 16418 6918 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 13 23 16630 13881 4381 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 13 23 13932 12802 3302 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 13 21 12842 11303 1803 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 13 21 11129 10563 1063 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 13 21 10757 10232 732 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 55 55 SW 8 12 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 8 12 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 54 54 SW 8 12 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 8 12 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 8 12 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 8 12 9868 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 9 13 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 9 13 10383 9861 361 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 9 13 11129 10563 1063 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 63 64 SW 9 13 13210 11862 2362 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 67 70 SW 9 13 17503 14367 4867 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 69 74 SW 9 13 21793 18081 8581 White 22
11 AM Sat 71 78 WSW 11 18 22607 22607 13107 White 26
12 Noon Sat 73 81 WSW 11 18 23214 23214 13714 White 29
1 PM Sat 74 83 WSW 11 18 23617 23617 14117 White 31
2 PM Sat 74 81 WSW 12 19 23214 23214 13714 White 29
3 PM Sat 74 80 WSW 12 19 23012 23012 13512 White 28
4 PM Sat 73 77 WSW 12 19 22404 22404 12904 White 25
5 PM Sat 72 75 WSW 12 20 21998 18820 9320 White 23
6 PM Sat 69 70 WSW 12 20 17503 14367 4867 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 12 20 14560 13166 3666 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 12 20 12842 11303 1803 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 12 20 11314 10749 1249 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 12 20 10570 10085 585 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 6 11 10236 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SW 6 11 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 11 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 6 11 10088 9500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 6 11 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 6 11 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 5 9 9180 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SSW 5 9 9868 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 5 9 10757 10232 732 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 62 63 SW 5 9 12842 11303 1803 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 66 69 SW 5 9 16630 13881 4381 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 69 74 SW 5 9 21793 18081 8581 White 22
11 AM Sun 71 78 WSW 9 14 22607 22607 13107 White 26
12 Noon Sun 72 80 WSW 9 14 23012 23012 13512 White 28
1 PM Sun 73 82 WSW 9 14 23416 23416 13916 White 30
2 PM Sun 73 80 WSW 10 16 23012 23012 13512 White 28
3 PM Sun 73 79 WSW 10 16 22809 22809 13309 White 27
4 PM Sun 72 76 WSW 10 16 22201 20044 10544 White 24
5 PM Sun 71 73 WSW 11 18 21590 17286 7786 White 21
6 PM Sun 68 69 WSW 11 18 16630 13881 4381 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 11 18 13573 12434 2934 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 9 14 12469 11119 1619 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 9 14 11129 10563 1063 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 9 14 10757 10232 732 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com