Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 ENE 6 13 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 6 13 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 6 12 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 6 12 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 5 12 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 5 11 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 5 11 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 9 11 7912 7824 824 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 ENE 5 11 7796 7708 708 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 5 11 7883 7795 795 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 E 4 7 8030 7941 941 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SSE 2 3 8147 8058 1058 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 55 SSW 4 5 8463 8146 1146 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 56 56 SW 6 7 9001 8175 1175 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 56 57 SW 7 8 9525 8205 1205 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 56 56 SW 7 8 9001 8175 1175 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 54 54 SW 6 7 8207 8117 1117 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 SW 5 7 8088 8000 1000 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 SSW 2 5 8000 7912 912 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 SSE 2 4 7942 7853 853 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 SE 2 5 7912 7824 824 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 SE 1 3 7883 7795 795 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 ESE 2 4 7883 7795 795 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 SE 3 6 7854 7766 766 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 SE 2 5 7854 7766 766 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 SE 2 5 7854 7766 766 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 SE 3 7 7825 7737 737 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 2 6 7825 7737 737 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 3 6 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 2 4 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 3 7 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 3 7 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 SSE 2 6 7796 7708 708 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 S 2 5 7854 7766 766 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 S 3 5 7971 7883 883 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 49 SW 8 9 8059 7970 970 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 SSW 11 12 8147 8058 1058 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 53 SSW 13 15 8176 8087 1087 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 SW 14 16 8147 8058 1058 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 52 SW 14 17 8147 8058 1058 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 SW 14 16 8059 7970 970 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 SW 12 15 7971 7883 883 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 SSW 7 13 7825 7737 737 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 SSE 4 8 7766 7678 678 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 SE 4 8 7708 7620 620 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 SE 4 8 7679 7591 591 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 SE 3 8 7650 7562 562 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 SE 3 7 7650 7562 562 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 SE 4 8 7650 7562 562 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 SE 4 8 7620 7533 533 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 SE 3 7 7620 7533 533 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 3 7 7591 7504 504 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 ESE 3 7 7562 7475 475 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 E 4 8 7562 7475 475 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 E 4 10 7562 7475 475 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 E 5 11 7533 7446 446 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 E 6 12 7562 7475 475 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 ENE 6 12 7679 7591 591 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 E 4 5 7825 7737 737 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 45 SSE 5 6 7942 7853 853 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 47 SSW 6 7 8000 7912 912 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 48 SSW 7 9 8030 7941 941 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 48 SW 8 9 8030 7941 941 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 6 7 7971 7883 883 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 WNW 4 5 7912 7824 824 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 N 4 5 7825 7737 737 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 NE 6 9 7737 7649 649 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 ENE 6 13 7679 7591 591 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 NE 8 16 7620 7533 533 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 NE 8 17 7591 7504 504 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 NE 9 20 7591 7504 504 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 NE 11 21 7591 7504 504 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]