Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 63 63 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 71 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 73 75 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 75 80 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 78 84 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 85 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 80 84 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 85 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 80 81 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 68 68 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 65 65 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 64 64 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 60 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 56 56 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 54 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 64 64 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 70 72 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 73 76 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 74 76 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 76 79 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 78 81 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 78 80 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 78 80 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 79 80 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 77 77 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 63 63 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 62 62 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 56 56 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 57 57 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 60 60 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 63 63 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 67 68 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 70 72 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 73 75 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 74 77 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 78 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 77 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 77 79 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 79 SW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 78 78 SW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 58 58 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 57 57 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 53 53 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 55 55 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 58 58 SSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 61 61 SSW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 65 66 SSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 70 SW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 71 73 SW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 73 76 SW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 74 77 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 75 77 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 77 78 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 78 79 SW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 68 68 S 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 65 65 S 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 63 63 S 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 61 61 SSE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 67 68 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 72 SSW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 73 75 SW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 75 77 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 76 78 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 79 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 79 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 77 78 SW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 76 76 SSW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 73 73 S 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 69 69 ESE 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 65 65 E 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 63 63 E 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 61 61 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 71 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 73 76 SSE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 76 78 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 78 81 S 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 80 83 SSW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 82 SSW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 82 SSW 3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 80 SW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 77 SW 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 74 S 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 70 70 ESE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 66 66 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 64 64 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 E 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]