Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NE 3 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NE 3 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NE 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 ENE 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 NE 2 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 ENE 2 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 ENE 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 49 49 E 2 4 6136 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 52 52 ESE 2 3 6760 6760 610 White 0
1 PM Mon 55 55 SSE 3 4 7418 7418 1268 White 31
2 PM Mon 57 57 S 4 5 7856 7856 1706 White 33
3 PM Mon 58 59 SSW 5 6 8162 8073 1923 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 57 57 SSW 6 7 7856 7856 1706 White 33
5 PM Mon 53 53 SSW 6 8 6979 6979 829 White 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 SSW 4 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 SSW 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 SSW 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 S 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 S 3 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 SSE 4 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 SSE 5 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 SSE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 3 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 SSE 4 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SSE 4 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 SSE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 SSE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 4 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 SSE 4 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 47 47 SSE 5 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 50 50 S 7 8 6319 6319 169 White 0
1 PM Tue 52 52 S 9 11 6760 6760 610 White 0
2 PM Tue 54 56 SSW 12 13 7637 7637 1487 White 32
3 PM Tue 54 55 SSW 13 15 7418 7418 1268 White 31
4 PM Tue 54 54 SW 14 16 7199 7199 1049 White 30
5 PM Tue 50 50 SW 13 15 6319 6319 169 White 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 SW 9 18 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 SW 7 15 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 SW 5 11 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 SW 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 SSW 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 SSW 3 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 S 2 5 6136 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 SSE 2 4 6136 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 1 2 6136 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 E 0 1 6136 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 NE 1 2 6136 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NE 2 4 6136 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 NE 2 6 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 NNE 3 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 NNE 4 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 NNE 5 11 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 NNE 5 8 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 42 44 NNE 6 7 6136 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 45 47 NE 8 9 6136 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 47 49 NE 9 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 49 51 NE 8 9 6539 6539 389 White 0
3 PM Wed 49 50 NE 8 9 6319 6319 169 White 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 NNE 9 10 6136 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 NNE 12 13 6136 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 NNE 11 19 6136 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 NNE 10 21 6136 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 NNE 8 18 6136 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 NNE 8 16 6136 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NNE 7 16 6136 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NNE 7 16 6136 6150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]