Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 66 66 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 65 65 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 63 63 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 63 63 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 63 63 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 61 61 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 63 63 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 66 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 72 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 78 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 76 81 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 79 84 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 85 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 80 84 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 81 84 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 82 84 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 81 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 78 78 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 69 69 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 64 64 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 62 62 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 60 60 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 65 65 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 69 70 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 73 75 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 74 76 SSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 77 80 SSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 78 81 SSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 78 81 SSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 82 SSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 78 79 SSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 78 78 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 77 77 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 71 71 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 69 69 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 67 67 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 64 64 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 60 60 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 61 61 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 62 62 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 65 65 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 68 70 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 72 76 SSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 75 80 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 77 82 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 78 83 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 79 84 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 79 83 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 80 SSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 77 78 SSW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 75 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 73 73 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 66 66 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 63 63 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 62 62 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 61 61 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 60 60 SSE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 60 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 63 64 SSE 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 67 69 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 70 74 S 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 74 79 S 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 76 82 SSW 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 78 84 SSW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 79 84 SSW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 79 83 SSW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 78 80 SSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 76 77 SSW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 73 73 SSW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 67 67 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 65 65 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 59 59 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 68 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 73 S 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 74 79 S 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 77 82 S 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 79 84 SSW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 80 85 SSW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 80 84 SSW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 80 82 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 78 79 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 75 75 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 72 72 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 65 65 SSE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 64 64 SSE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 61 61 SE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 65 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 70 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 73 76 SE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 76 79 SSE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 78 82 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 83 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 84 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 83 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 80 81 SSW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 79 79 SSW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 74 74 S 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 71 71 S 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 68 68 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]