Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 25 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SW 9 15 14412 14412 5312 White 5
1 AM Thu 46 46 SW 8 14 14194 10850 1750 White 4
2 AM Thu 45 45 SW 7 12 13976 10302 1202 White 3
3 AM Thu 43 43 SW 4 7 10882 9164 64 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 3 6 10325 9100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 2 4 9166 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 3 6 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 2 5 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 S 4 7 9753 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 43 SSW 8 11 10882 9164 64 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 43 44 SW 12 16 13758 9740 640 White 2
11 AM Thu 43 45 SW 15 21 13976 10302 1202 White 3
12 Noon Thu 44 46 WSW 17 23 14194 10850 1750 White 4
1 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 15 17 13758 9740 640 White 2
2 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 15 20 13758 9740 640 White 2
3 PM Thu 44 44 W 15 20 13758 9740 640 White 2
4 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 16 18 13758 9740 640 White 2
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 15 22 13976 10302 1202 White 3
6 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 16 20 14194 10850 1750 White 4
7 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 15 17 14194 10850 1750 White 4
8 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 16 23 13976 10302 1202 White 3
9 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 14 21 10882 9164 64 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 42 42 WSW 13 20 10325 9100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 12 21 9753 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 WSW 13 23 9753 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 WSW 14 22 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 WSW 10 20 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 WSW 8 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 WSW 9 16 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 WSW 8 14 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 SW 7 16 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 WSW 7 15 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 40 SW 8 14 9166 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 43 SSW 13 17 10882 9164 64 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 43 48 SSW 15 17 14628 14628 5528 White 6
11 AM Fri 45 51 SW 18 21 15278 15278 6178 White 9
12 Noon Fri 47 49 SW 20 23 14846 14846 5746 White 7
1 PM Fri 47 49 SW 23 27 14846 14846 5746 White 7
2 PM Fri 46 47 SW 26 30 14412 14412 5312 White 5
3 PM Fri 44 45 SW 26 30 13976 10302 1202 White 3
4 PM Fri 42 42 SW 24 28 10325 9100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 41 41 SW 22 28 9753 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 SW 20 29 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 WSW 19 28 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 WSW 15 25 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 WSW 11 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 SW 10 17 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 WSW 11 21 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 SW 13 25 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 SW 13 26 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 SW 16 29 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 SW 14 24 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 SW 11 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 10 16 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 SW 11 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SW 11 19 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 WSW 10 17 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 WSW 9 15 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 9 15 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 32 33 WSW 11 16 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 36 W 12 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 35 38 WSW 10 15 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 38 W 12 18 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 40 W 14 23 9166 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 15 23 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 15 22 9166 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 15 24 9166 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 15 26 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 WNW 11 23 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 6 14 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 15 8615 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 W 8 16 8615 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]