Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 61 63 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 67 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 71 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 70 75 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 70 75 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 71 74 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 71 73 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 70 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 67 67 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 47 47 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 45 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 43 43 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 39 39 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 50 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 63 64 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 69 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 70 71 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 70 71 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 70 71 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 70 71 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 69 69 SW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 41 41 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 41 41 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 46 46 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 52 52 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 59 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 64 66 S 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 68 71 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 69 72 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 69 72 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 68 70 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 67 68 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 39 39 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 37 37 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 35 35 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 39 39 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 49 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 56 58 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 62 65 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 71 ESE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 74 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 70 74 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 70 72 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 72 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 70 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 66 66 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 61 61 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 42 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 37 37 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 36 36 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 36 36 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 37 37 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 44 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 58 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 63 65 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 68 71 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 70 73 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 73 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 71 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 70 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 69 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 36 36 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 36 36 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 56 57 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 64 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 70 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 72 SSW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 72 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 70 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 69 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 67 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 47 47 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]