Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 14 14 NE 11 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 13 13 ENE 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 10 10 ENE 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 10 10 ENE 8 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 8 8 ENE 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 8 8 ENE 4 6 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 8 8 E 3 5 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 10 10 E 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 14 14 ESE 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 23 23 ESE 3 5 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 31 E 4 6 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 36 E 5 9 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 39 E 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 42 E 6 11 9752 9100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 41 42 E 6 11 9752 9100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 40 41 ENE 6 10 9232 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 37 ENE 5 9 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 31 31 NE 4 6 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 NNE 3 5 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 23 23 NNW 2 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 20 20 NW 2 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 19 19 NW 2 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 19 19 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 19 19 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 19 19 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 15 15 WSW 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 WSW 3 4 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 SW 4 5 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 22 22 SW 4 5 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 SW 4 6 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 39 SSW 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 43 SSW 5 9 10185 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 44 45 SSW 6 11 10942 9744 644 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 46 47 SSW 8 12 11652 10565 1465 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 46 46 SW 9 13 11299 10171 1071 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 44 44 SW 9 13 10581 9230 130 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 40 40 SW 8 12 9079 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 35 SW 6 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 SW 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 29 29 WSW 5 9 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 26 26 WSW 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 25 25 SW 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 SW 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 23 23 SW 5 8 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 22 22 SW 6 9 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 21 21 SW 6 9 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 20 20 SW 8 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 20 20 SW 8 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 19 19 SW 8 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 19 19 SW 8 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 18 18 SW 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 19 19 SW 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 21 21 SW 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 25 25 SW 8 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 SSW 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 38 SSW 12 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 40 41 SSW 13 16 9232 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 42 43 SSW 13 17 10185 9100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 42 43 SSW 13 17 10185 9100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 40 40 SSW 12 16 9079 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 37 37 SSW 11 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 34 34 SSW 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 SSW 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 26 26 SSW 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 23 23 SSW 8 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 21 21 SSW 6 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 20 20 SSW 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 19 19 SSW 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 18 18 S 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 17 17 ESE 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 17 17 E 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 15 15 E 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 15 15 ENE 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 15 15 NE 5 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 14 14 NE 6 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 14 14 NNE 8 10 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 15 15 NNE 9 11 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 20 20 NE 10 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 25 26 NE 11 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 30 31 ENE 12 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 33 35 ENE 13 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 34 35 NE 14 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 33 34 NE 14 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 32 32 NE 14 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 30 30 NE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 27 27 NNE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 24 24 NNE 13 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 NNE 12 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 18 18 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 17 17 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 17 17 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 17 17 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 15 15 NNE 12 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 18 NNE 12 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 22 22 NE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 27 NE 13 19 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 32 NE 14 19 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 35 NE 14 19 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 37 NE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 36 NE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 35 NE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 NE 13 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 29 29 NE 13 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 26 NE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 23 23 NNE 11 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 21 NNE 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 19 19 NNE 9 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 18 NNE 9 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 18 NNE 9 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 NNE 9 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 17 17 NNE 9 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 15 15 NNE 9 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 NNE 9 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 NNE 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 NNE 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 15 15 NNE 9 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 15 15 NE 10 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 19 NE 10 12 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 24 ENE 11 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 29 30 ENE 11 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 36 ENE 12 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 39 ENE 13 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 40 ENE 13 18 9079 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 39 ENE 13 18 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 37 ENE 13 17 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 ENE 13 16 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 ENE 12 14 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 28 ENE 11 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 NE 11 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 21 21 NE 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 NE 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 NE 10 13 8973 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]