Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 260210/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 WSW 8 11 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 WSW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 WSW 11 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 WSW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 WSW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 9 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 WSW 11 18 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 SW 13 21 9784 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 42 44 SW 16 26 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 45 48 SW 18 29 14515 12580 3480 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 47 49 SW 20 32 14954 13432 4332 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 48 49 SW 20 34 14954 13432 4332 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 47 48 SW 20 33 14515 12580 3480 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 46 46 SW 20 33 13496 11166 2066 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 46 46 SW 21 34 13496 11166 2066 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 42 42 SW 20 33 10712 9336 236 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 38 38 SW 19 31 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 SW 17 27 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 SW 17 24 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 SW 16 23 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 SW 16 23 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 SW 17 24 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SW 17 24 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 SW 18 25 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 SW 19 26 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 SW 19 27 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SW 19 27 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 SW 19 26 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 SW 18 26 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 SW 17 27 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SW 18 29 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 20 33 9784 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 41 42 SSW 21 35 10712 9336 236 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 43 44 SW 23 36 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 43 44 SW 23 35 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 43 44 SW 21 35 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 43 43 SW 21 35 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 43 43 SW 21 34 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 20 32 10236 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 18 29 9339 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 SW 16 26 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 SW 13 23 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 SW 12 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 SW 11 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 SW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 WSW 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 9 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 SW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 SW 11 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 23 23 SW 11 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 SW 11 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 SW 11 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 30 30 SW 11 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 SW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 43 SW 10 17 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 43 45 SW 11 17 12679 10688 1588 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 44 46 SW 11 18 13496 11166 2066 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 45 47 SW 11 19 14005 11741 2641 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 45 46 SW 12 20 13496 11166 2066 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 44 44 SW 12 20 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 42 42 SW 12 20 10712 9336 236 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 12 20 9339 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 12 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 11 18 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 W 11 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 W 11 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 W 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 WNW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 NW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 NNW 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 22 22 N 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 N 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 20 N 9 12 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 N 9 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 N 9 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 23 23 N 9 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 27 NNE 9 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 30 30 NNE 9 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 32 32 N 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 35 35 NW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 35 35 NW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 NW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 NW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 32 32 NW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 NW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 NW 10 17 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 NW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 NW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 25 NW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 NW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 22 NW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 NW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 NW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 18 18 NW 10 13 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 WNW 10 14 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 WNW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 22 22 WNW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 27 WNW 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 36 W 10 16 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 42 W 10 16 10712 9336 236 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 42 45 W 10 16 12679 10688 1588 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 44 47 W 11 17 14005 11741 2641 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 45 48 WSW 11 18 14515 12580 3480 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 45 47 WSW 12 19 14005 11741 2641 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 44 45 WSW 12 20 12679 10688 1588 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 43 43 WSW 13 20 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 13 21 9339 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 WSW 13 21 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 WSW 13 21 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 WSW 13 20 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 WSW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 SW 13 18 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 SW 13 18 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 SW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 23 23 SW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 23 SW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 SW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 SW 13 19 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 SW 14 20 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 SW 14 23 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 25 25 SW 16 25 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SW 17 27 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 18 28 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 41 SSW 19 29 10236 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 42 43 SSW 19 32 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 43 44 SSW 20 33 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 43 44 SSW 21 35 11814 10219 1119 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 23 36 11198 9775 675 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 42 42 SSW 24 37 10712 9336 236 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 41 41 SSW 24 39 10236 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 38 38 SSW 25 40 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 SSW 25 41 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 SSW 25 40 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 SSW 26 40 9064 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 SSW 26 39 9064 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]