Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 54 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 61 63 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 68 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 67 70 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 70 74 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 72 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 70 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 69 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 68 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 46 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 53 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 62 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 63 67 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 67 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 70 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 68 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 68 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 67 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 66 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 63 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 56 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 60 62 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 65 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 68 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 69 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 68 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 68 SW 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 66 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 63 SW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 48 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 49 49 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 55 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 58 61 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 62 64 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 67 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 68 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 65 67 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 65 66 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 65 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 57 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 55 55 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 48 48 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 51 51 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 55 56 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 59 62 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 62 64 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 64 66 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 66 68 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 68 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 65 66 SW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 43 43 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 44 44 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 56 58 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 60 63 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 64 66 SE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 68 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 67 69 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 69 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 66 67 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 65 66 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 63 63 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]