Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 W 10 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 W 10 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 W 10 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 W 11 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 23 23 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 27 27 W 13 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 W 14 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 39 WSW 17 20 10204 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 41 43 WSW 18 27 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 43 46 WSW 20 31 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 45 48 WSW 21 33 14512 12256 3156 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 45 48 WSW 24 35 14512 12256 3156 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 46 48 WSW 24 35 14512 12256 3156 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 45 46 WSW 24 35 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 43 43 WSW 24 35 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 40 40 WSW 21 26 10416 9497 397 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 34 34 WSW 20 25 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 19 23 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 WSW 18 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 WSW 17 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 W 16 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 W 14 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 24 24 W 13 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 W 13 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 23 23 W 12 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 W 11 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 W 10 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 20 20 W 10 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 W 9 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 30 WNW 10 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 36 NW 11 12 9005 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 41 NW 11 17 10829 9933 833 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 40 44 NW 12 18 11853 10807 1707 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 42 46 NNW 12 18 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 43 46 NNW 12 18 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 43 45 NNW 12 18 12305 11153 2053 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 42 43 NNW 11 17 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 10 16 10416 9497 397 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 36 36 N 9 11 9005 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 30 30 N 6 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 26 26 NNE 5 6 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 23 23 N 4 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 22 22 NW 4 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 WNW 4 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 W 4 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 18 18 W 3 4 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 17 17 WSW 3 4 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 17 17 WSW 3 4 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 17 17 WSW 3 4 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 17 17 W 5 6 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 W 5 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 WSW 5 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 WSW 6 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 SW 8 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 39 41 SW 8 12 10829 9933 833 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 43 45 SW 9 13 12305 11153 2053 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 44 46 WSW 9 13 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 45 46 WSW 10 14 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 46 47 WSW 10 14 13645 11824 2724 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 10 16 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 44 44 WSW 10 16 11853 10807 1707 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 10 16 10416 9497 397 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 11 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 WSW 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 WSW 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 WSW 12 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 26 26 WSW 13 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 25 25 WSW 13 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 24 24 WSW 13 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 WSW 14 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 WSW 14 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 22 22 WSW 14 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 W 14 21 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 21 21 W 16 21 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 21 21 W 16 23 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 23 23 W 16 24 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 28 W 16 24 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 36 W 16 24 9005 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 43 W 16 23 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 43 47 W 16 23 13645 11824 2724 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 44 48 W 16 23 14512 12256 3156 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 44 47 W 16 24 13645 11824 2724 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 44 46 W 17 25 12925 11490 2390 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 43 44 W 17 26 11853 10807 1707 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 41 41 W 18 26 10829 9933 833 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 37 37 WNW 17 25 9502 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 WNW 14 23 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 WNW 13 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 NW 12 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 NW 11 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 NW 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 19 19 NNW 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 NNW 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 NNW 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 N 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 N 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 N 10 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 15 15 N 10 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 15 15 N 10 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 18 N 10 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 NNE 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 29 NNE 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 35 NE 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 36 40 NE 11 17 10416 9497 397 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 38 42 NE 11 16 11176 10198 1098 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 40 43 NE 10 16 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 41 43 NE 11 16 11516 10399 1299 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 41 42 NE 11 17 11176 10198 1098 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 39 39 NNE 11 17 10204 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 11 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 NNE 10 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 26 26 NNE 10 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 NNE 9 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 22 22 N 9 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 N 8 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 19 19 N 8 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 N 8 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 15 15 NNW 6 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 15 15 N 6 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 15 15 N 6 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 15 15 N 6 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 17 17 N 6 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 N 6 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 N 6 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 28 NNE 8 11 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 35 NE 8 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 42 ENE 9 13 11176 10198 1098 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 43 47 NE 9 13 13645 11824 2724 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 45 49 N 9 13 15788 12834 3734 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 46 49 NNW 9 13 15788 12834 3734 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 47 49 NW 9 13 15788 12834 3734 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 47 48 NW 9 13 14512 12256 3156 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 45 45 NW 9 13 12305 11153 2053 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 8 12 10829 9933 833 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 36 36 NW 6 10 9005 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 NW 5 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 NW 5 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 NW 5 8 8999 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]