Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 8 11 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 11 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 W 8 11 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 8 11 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 W 6 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 WSW 8 12 10239 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 72 75 SW 8 13 17977 14646 5546 White 9
10 AM Sat 75 80 SW 9 14 19040 19040 9940 White 14
11 AM Sat 78 80 SW 10 16 19040 19040 9940 White 14
12 Noon Sat 78 81 SSW 10 17 19260 19260 10160 White 15
1 PM Sat 78 81 WSW 10 17 19260 19260 10160 White 15
2 PM Sat 79 81 W 11 18 19260 19260 10160 White 15
3 PM Sat 76 77 W 12 19 18406 18406 9306 White 11
4 PM Sat 74 75 W 12 20 17977 14646 5546 White 9
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 20 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 19 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 18 13335 10229 1129 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 16 9925 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 NW 10 14 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NW 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 WNW 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 WNW 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 73 WNW 8 13 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 73 77 WNW 9 14 18406 18406 9306 White 11
11 AM Sun 74 76 WNW 10 16 18192 15159 6059 White 10
12 Noon Sun 75 77 WNW 11 17 18406 18406 9306 White 11
1 PM Sun 75 77 W 11 19 18406 18406 9306 White 11
2 PM Sun 74 76 W 12 20 18192 15159 6059 White 10
3 PM Sun 73 74 W 12 21 17763 13696 4596 White 8
4 PM Sun 71 72 W 12 21 14737 12896 3796 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 20 12942 9904 804 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 11 19 10239 9100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 WNW 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 64 WNW 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 WNW 10 16 12942 9904 804 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 71 74 NW 11 17 17763 13696 4596 White 8
11 AM Mon 73 75 NW 11 17 17977 14646 5546 White 9
12 Noon Mon 74 77 WNW 11 18 18406 18406 9306 White 11
1 PM Mon 74 77 WNW 12 18 18406 18406 9306 White 11
2 PM Mon 73 75 W 12 19 17977 14646 5546 White 9
3 PM Mon 72 73 W 12 20 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 72 73 W 13 20 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 71 71 W 13 20 13925 10530 1430 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 13 20 10543 9100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 12 19 9925 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 12 18 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 W 11 18 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 W 10 16 10239 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 70 73 WNW 10 16 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 72 76 WNW 11 16 18192 15159 6059 White 10
11 AM Tue 74 78 WNW 11 17 18620 18620 9520 White 12
12 Noon Tue 75 79 WNW 11 18 18829 18829 9729 White 13
1 PM Tue 75 79 W 12 18 18829 18829 9729 White 13
2 PM Tue 75 78 W 12 19 18620 18620 9520 White 12
3 PM Tue 75 77 W 12 19 18406 18406 9306 White 11
4 PM Tue 74 75 W 12 19 17977 14646 5546 White 9
5 PM Tue 73 74 W 12 19 17763 13696 4596 White 8
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 12 18 13925 10530 1430 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 11 17 12942 9904 804 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 11 17 9925 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 11 18 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 19 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 W 11 18 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 11 17 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 9 14 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 WNW 8 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 69 WNW 8 12 12942 9904 804 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 71 74 NW 8 13 17763 13696 4596 White 8
10 AM Wed 73 78 N 9 14 18620 18620 9520 White 12
11 AM Wed 75 79 NNE 10 16 18829 18829 9729 White 13
12 Noon Wed 76 81 N 11 17 19260 19260 10160 White 15
1 PM Wed 77 82 W 11 17 19480 19480 10380 White 16
2 PM Wed 77 81 WSW 11 17 19260 19260 10160 White 15
3 PM Wed 77 80 WSW 11 17 19040 19040 9940 White 14
4 PM Wed 77 79 W 10 16 18829 18829 9729 White 13
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 10 16 18406 18406 9306 White 11
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 16 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 16 13335 10229 1129 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 16 9925 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 10 16 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 10 14 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 W 9 14 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 8 12 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 69 W 8 12 12942 9904 804 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 74 WSW 9 13 17763 13696 4596 White 8
10 AM Thu 73 78 SSW 9 14 18620 18620 9520 White 12
11 AM Thu 74 77 S 10 16 18406 18406 9306 White 11
12 Noon Thu 76 80 S 11 17 19040 19040 9940 White 14
1 PM Thu 77 81 SSW 11 17 19260 19260 10160 White 15
2 PM Thu 77 80 SSW 11 17 19040 19040 9940 White 14
3 PM Thu 77 80 SW 11 17 19040 19040 9940 White 14
4 PM Thu 76 77 WSW 10 17 18406 18406 9306 White 11
5 PM Thu 75 75 W 10 16 17977 14646 5546 White 9
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 10 14 15257 13284 4184 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 9 14 13335 10229 1129 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 9 13 10239 9100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 9 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]