Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 23 32 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 SW 25 35 9495 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 SW 27 39 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 29 42 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 WSW 31 43 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 SW 33 47 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 WSW 33 47 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 34 48 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 36 SW 34 55 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 43 SW 34 55 11577 11276 2176 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 44 49 SW 33 52 12670 11903 2803 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 46 53 SW 32 51 13792 12802 3702 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 47 54 SW 33 52 14040 13057 3957 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 48 55 SW 34 55 14285 13426 4326 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 48 54 SW 36 57 14040 13057 3957 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 48 52 SW 36 59 13479 12653 3553 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 46 48 SW 36 59 12524 11748 2648 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 45 46 SW 36 59 11951 11570 2470 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 44 44 SW 36 58 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 38 38 SW 35 57 10614 9491 391 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 36 36 SW 35 56 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 SW 34 49 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 34 48 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 SW 34 48 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 WSW 31 43 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 WSW 28 40 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 26 26 WSW 26 37 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 WSW 26 36 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 WSW 26 37 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 26 36 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 22 22 WSW 24 33 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 WSW 21 29 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 27 27 W 18 28 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 34 WSW 18 28 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 37 WSW 17 27 10265 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 37 40 W 18 28 11300 10253 1153 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 39 42 W 20 32 11488 10938 1838 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 40 44 W 23 36 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 41 45 W 25 40 11756 11481 2381 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 42 45 W 28 40 11756 11481 2381 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 42 44 W 31 36 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 41 42 WNW 32 34 11488 10938 1838 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 29 32 10959 9880 780 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 36 36 W 27 29 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 W 25 28 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 W 26 28 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 27 29 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 W 28 31 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 W 27 31 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 W 25 31 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 W 24 29 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 W 24 28 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 W 24 27 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 W 23 25 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 W 19 21 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 WNW 16 18 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 36 WNW 13 16 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 43 WNW 12 16 11577 11276 2176 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 45 50 WNW 12 16 12820 12367 3267 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 50 56 WNW 13 17 14528 13753 4653 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 53 60 WNW 13 17 16088 14722 5622 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 55 62 WNW 14 18 17307 15332 6232 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 56 62 WNW 14 18 17307 15332 6232 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 56 60 WNW 16 18 16088 14722 5622 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 56 58 W 16 18 14935 14244 5144 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 54 55 W 16 18 14285 13426 4326 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 14 17 13105 12508 3408 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 47 47 W 13 17 12382 11659 2559 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 12 16 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 12 16 11488 10938 1838 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 40 40 W 11 14 11300 10253 1153 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 38 38 W 11 14 10614 9491 391 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 W 11 14 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 W 10 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 W 10 13 8688 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 13 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 13 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 13 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 W 10 13 8533 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 W 10 14 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 42 W 10 16 11488 10938 1838 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 46 49 W 11 17 12670 11903 2803 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 52 57 WSW 13 18 14755 14000 4900 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 56 62 WSW 14 19 17307 15332 6232 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 59 66 WSW 16 21 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 60 67 WSW 17 24 21706 18575 9475 White 30
2 PM Wed 61 67 WSW 18 25 21706 18575 9475 White 30
3 PM Wed 62 66 WSW 18 26 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 61 63 WSW 18 26 17943 15949 6849 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 60 61 WSW 18 25 16685 14900 5800 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 18 24 14755 14000 4900 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 18 21 13792 12802 3702 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 17 20 12670 11903 2803 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 16 19 11951 11570 2470 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 14 19 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 42 42 W 13 18 11488 10938 1838 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 W 13 17 11300 10253 1153 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 38 38 W 12 17 10614 9491 391 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 37 37 W 12 16 10265 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 11 14 9495 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 W 11 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 W 10 13 9094 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 W 10 13 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 10 13 11300 10253 1153 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 44 45 WSW 10 14 11756 11481 2381 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 49 51 WSW 11 16 13105 12508 3408 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 54 57 WSW 12 17 14755 14000 4900 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 58 62 SW 13 19 17307 15332 6232 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 61 66 SW 14 21 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 62 67 WSW 17 24 21706 18575 9475 White 30
2 PM Thu 63 67 WSW 18 25 21706 18575 9475 White 30
3 PM Thu 63 66 WSW 19 26 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 63 64 WSW 20 26 19069 16539 7439 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 20 25 16685 14900 5800 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 19 24 14935 14244 5144 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 18 23 14040 13057 3957 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 17 21 12820 12367 3267 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 47 47 WSW 16 20 12382 11659 2559 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 14 18 11951 11570 2470 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 13 17 11666 11392 2292 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 WSW 12 16 11577 11276 2176 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 12 16 11398 10597 1497 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 40 40 W 11 16 11300 10253 1153 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 38 38 W 10 14 10614 9491 391 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 36 36 W 9 13 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 9 13 9890 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 9 13 10614 9491 391 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 41 41 SW 9 13 11398 10597 1497 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 45 46 SW 10 14 11951 11570 2470 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 50 52 SW 11 17 13479 12653 3553 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 54 58 SW 13 19 14935 14244 5144 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 58 63 SW 16 21 17943 15949 6849 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 60 66 SW 17 23 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 62 67 SW 18 24 21706 18575 9475 White 30
2 PM Fri 62 66 SW 19 25 20584 17740 8640 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 62 65 SW 20 26 19602 17138 8038 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 62 64 SW 20 26 19069 16539 7439 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 60 60 SW 20 26 16088 14722 5622 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 57 57 SW 20 25 14755 14000 4900 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 19 24 13792 12802 3702 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 18 21 12670 11903 2803 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 17 20 12382 11659 2559 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 14 19 11756 11481 2381 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]