Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SSW 18 25 8542 7426 626 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 18 25 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 47 47 SSW 20 28 7312 7158 358 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 19 27 7261 7149 349 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 45 45 SSW 19 26 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 43 43 SSW 17 24 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SSW 16 21 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SSW 16 21 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 48 49 S 17 27 7974 7259 459 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 54 57 S 18 29 10729 9640 2840 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 58 63 SSW 21 34 11673 11399 4599 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 61 68 SSW 25 41 12647 11841 5041 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 63 70 SSW 27 44 13014 12477 5677 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 64 71 SSW 29 47 13369 12614 5814 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 64 70 SSW 33 52 13014 12477 5677 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 64 68 SSW 35 57 12647 11841 5041 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 63 65 SSW 34 56 11945 11570 4770 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 61 62 SSW 33 52 11587 11314 4514 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 59 59 SSW 33 52 11330 10348 3548 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 31 49 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 51 51 SSW 32 50 8542 7426 626 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 50 50 SW 31 42 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 48 48 SW 28 39 7455 7209 409 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 46 46 SW 27 39 7261 7149 349 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 SW 25 35 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 24 34 0 6800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 25 34 0 6800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 23 32 0 6800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 SW 20 29 0 6800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 19 26 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 WSW 14 20 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 WSW 13 19 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 44 WSW 11 18 7161 7149 349 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 W 10 16 7312 7158 358 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 48 50 NW 10 16 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 50 52 NW 12 19 8929 7938 1138 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 52 55 WNW 16 25 10059 8889 2089 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 54 57 WNW 18 31 10729 9640 2840 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 55 58 W 21 34 11055 10007 3207 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 56 59 W 24 34 11330 10348 3548 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 57 59 WNW 26 32 11330 10348 3548 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 56 57 WNW 27 29 10729 9640 2840 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 26 27 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 24 25 8929 7938 1138 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 21 23 7974 7259 459 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 24 7312 7158 358 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 21 25 7261 7149 349 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 45 45 W 23 26 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 W 23 26 7161 7149 349 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 W 23 25 7161 7149 349 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 21 23 0 6800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 19 20 0 6800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 17 18 0 6800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 14 16 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 12 13 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 W 11 12 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 49 50 W 10 11 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 53 56 WNW 11 12 10399 9267 2467 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 57 62 NNW 13 14 11587 11314 4514 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 61 67 N 16 17 12508 11741 4941 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 64 71 N 17 18 13369 12614 5814 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 67 74 NNW 17 19 14178 13279 6479 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 69 75 NNW 17 19 14410 13626 6826 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 71 75 NNW 16 18 14410 13626 6826 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 71 73 NNW 14 17 13942 12927 6127 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 70 71 NW 13 16 13369 12614 5814 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 11 14 12508 11741 4941 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 12 11587 11314 4514 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 9 12 11055 10007 3207 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 13 10059 8889 2089 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 54 54 WSW 11 16 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 12 17 8929 7938 1138 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 WSW 13 17 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 48 48 WSW 13 17 7455 7209 409 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 13 16 7312 7158 358 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 12 14 7211 7149 349 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 11 12 7161 7149 349 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 10 11 7161 7149 349 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 9 10 7261 7149 349 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 49 49 SW 6 10 7974 7259 459 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 53 54 SW 6 10 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 58 61 WSW 8 11 11501 10998 4198 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 63 68 W 9 13 12647 11841 5041 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 67 74 W 11 16 14178 13279 6479 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 71 78 W 12 18 15057 14342 7542 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 73 80 W 13 20 16236 14778 7978 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 75 81 W 14 23 16790 14948 8148 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 16 24 16236 14778 7978 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 76 78 W 17 24 15057 14342 7542 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 17 24 14640 13877 7077 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 17 24 13705 12757 5957 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 17 23 12508 11741 4941 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 16 21 11673 11399 4599 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 14 20 11416 10675 3875 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 14 19 11055 10007 3207 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 13 18 10399 9267 2467 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 WSW 12 17 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 12 16 8929 7938 1138 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 11 14 8542 7426 626 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 10 13 7974 7259 459 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 10 12 7455 7209 409 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 11 7455 7209 409 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 11 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 11 8929 7938 1138 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 56 57 W 9 11 10729 9640 2840 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 60 62 WSW 9 12 11587 11314 4514 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 64 68 SW 10 13 12647 11841 5041 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 68 73 SSW 11 16 13942 12927 6127 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 71 76 SW 12 18 14640 13877 7077 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 74 79 SW 14 20 15660 14571 7771 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 76 80 SW 16 23 16236 14778 7978 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 78 81 SW 17 24 16790 14948 8148 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 78 79 WSW 17 24 15660 14571 7771 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 17 24 14831 14111 7311 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 17 24 13942 12927 6127 Blue 29
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 17 23 12791 12332 5532 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 16 21 11759 11485 4685 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 61 61 SW 14 20 11501 10998 4198 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 14 19 11416 10675 3875 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 13 18 11055 10007 3207 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 WSW 12 17 10399 9267 2467 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 12 16 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 11 14 9311 8234 1434 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 10 13 8542 7426 626 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 10 12 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 9 11 8257 7309 509 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 8 10 8542 7426 626 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 54 54 SW 8 10 9688 8514 1714 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 58 59 SW 8 11 11330 10348 3548 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 63 65 SW 9 13 11945 11570 4770 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 68 72 SW 11 16 13705 12757 5957 Blue 28
11 AM Fri 72 77 SW 13 19 14831 14111 7311 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 75 81 SW 16 21 16790 14948 8148 Blue 37
1 PM Fri 76 81 SW 17 24 16790 14948 8148 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 77 81 SW 18 25 16790 14948 8148 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 77 80 SW 19 26 16236 14778 7978 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 77 79 SW 19 26 15660 14571 7771 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 75 75 SW 19 26 14410 13626 6826 Blue 31
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 19 26 13705 12757 5957 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 18 26 12791 12332 5532 Blue 25
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 17 25 11945 11570 4770 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 16 24 11587 11314 4514 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 14 21 11416 10675 3875 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]