Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 64 64 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 67 68 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 72 74 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 78 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 77 80 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 79 83 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 81 85 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 80 83 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 80 82 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 82 83 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 80 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 77 77 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 73 73 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 71 71 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 69 69 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 68 68 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 62 62 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 64 64 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 67 68 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 72 74 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 74 78 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 77 80 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 79 82 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 81 84 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 81 84 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 81 83 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 82 83 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 80 80 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 66 66 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 65 65 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 63 63 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 65 65 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 67 68 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 71 73 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 74 77 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 78 82 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 80 84 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 81 85 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 81 85 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 81 84 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 80 81 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 78 78 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 76 76 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 67 67 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 62 62 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 61 61 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 62 62 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 63 63 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 65 66 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 69 71 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 73 77 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 76 79 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 78 81 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 79 82 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 80 83 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 80 82 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 79 80 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 78 78 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 68 68 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 67 67 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 66 66 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 66 66 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 69 71 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 76 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 76 78 SE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 78 80 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 79 81 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 79 81 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 79 80 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 78 79 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 77 77 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 75 75 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 67 67 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 64 64 S 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 66 66 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 71 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 72 75 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 75 78 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 77 81 E 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 83 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 83 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 82 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 80 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 78 78 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 76 76 SSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]