Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 S 2 3 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 SSE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 22 22 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 22 22 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 SSE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 SE 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 35 35 ESE 4 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 39 40 ESE 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 ESE 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 44 45 E 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 45 46 E 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 E 4 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 E 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 40 40 E 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 ESE 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 34 34 SSE 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 S 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 S 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 SE 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 ESE 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 ESE 3 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 SE 2 3 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 ESE 2 3 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 ESE 2 3 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 SE 2 3 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 SE 3 4 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 ESE 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 E 4 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 45 46 ENE 5 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 48 49 NE 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 50 51 NNE 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 W 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 WSW 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 WSW 6 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 WSW 5 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 WSW 5 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 W 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 W 4 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 W 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 WNW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 NW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 NW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 NW 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 NNW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 40 41 N 10 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 43 44 N 11 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 45 46 N 12 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 46 47 N 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 N 11 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 N 11 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 37 37 NNW 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NW 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NW 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 NW 12 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 NW 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 NW 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NW 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 NW 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 NW 11 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 NW 11 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 NW 10 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 NW 9 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 NNW 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 NNW 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 NNW 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 N 10 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 39 40 N 11 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 42 44 N 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 44 46 N 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 45 46 N 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 45 46 N 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 N 11 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 10 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 N 9 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NNW 9 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NW 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NW 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NW 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NW 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NW 8 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 NNW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NNW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NNW 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 NNW 4 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 32 32 N 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 NNE 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 NNE 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 43 45 NNE 10 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 45 47 NE 10 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 46 47 NE 10 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 46 47 NE 10 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 NNE 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 N 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 NNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 NW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 NNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NNW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 N 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 N 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 N 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 NNW 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 N 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 N 4 5 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 N 5 6 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 NNE 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 39 40 ENE 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 43 44 ENE 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 46 47 ENE 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 ENE 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 ENE 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 NE 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 N 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 NW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 WNW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 WNW 5 8 5770 6800 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]