Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SSW 21 31 9719 8529 729 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 43 43 SSW 24 33 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 27 39 8248 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 38 38 SSW 26 36 7406 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 24 33 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 24 33 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 23 32 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 24 34 7406 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 42 S 26 42 8939 7937 137 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 43 46 S 26 41 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 46 51 S 24 37 11525 11081 3281 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 48 54 S 24 39 11788 11513 3713 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 50 57 S 24 37 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 50 57 S 25 40 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 50 56 S 25 40 12426 11688 3888 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 50 55 S 25 41 12128 11601 3801 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 50 53 SSW 28 44 11700 11426 3626 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 49 50 SSW 28 44 11437 10750 2950 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 48 48 SSW 27 43 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 44 44 SSW 26 41 9719 8529 729 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 25 40 8939 7937 137 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 40 40 SW 24 33 8248 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 37 37 SW 23 32 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 SW 21 29 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SW 20 28 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 SW 18 25 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SW 16 21 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 SW 14 21 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SW 12 18 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 14 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 SW 9 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 WSW 9 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 41 WSW 9 16 8540 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 40 42 W 10 17 8939 7937 137 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 42 45 W 12 19 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 44 48 W 13 21 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 46 51 W 16 24 11525 11081 3281 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 47 52 W 17 26 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 48 52 W 19 27 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 48 50 WNW 23 28 11437 10750 2950 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 47 48 WNW 24 28 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 24 28 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 21 27 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 19 25 8540 7800 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 39 39 W 17 21 7943 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 13 18 7406 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 W 11 14 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 10 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 10 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 10 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 10 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 11 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 11 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 8 11 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NW 8 11 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 41 NW 8 12 8540 7800 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 43 46 NW 9 14 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 47 52 WNW 11 16 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 51 57 WNW 12 18 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 54 61 WNW 13 19 13554 12686 4886 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 56 63 W 13 19 14079 13123 5323 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 58 64 W 13 19 14319 13482 5682 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 59 63 W 13 19 14079 13123 5323 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 60 62 W 13 19 13836 12832 5032 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 59 60 W 13 19 13190 12542 4742 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 13 19 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 12 19 11700 11426 3626 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 50 50 W 12 19 11437 10750 2950 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 11 18 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 11 16 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 10 14 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 WNW 10 13 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 42 42 NW 9 12 8939 7937 137 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 41 41 NNW 9 12 8540 7800 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 40 40 NNW 9 12 8248 7800 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 8 11 7943 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 N 8 11 8248 7800 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 8 11 8939 7937 137 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 8 11 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 48 49 NNE 8 11 11349 10414 2614 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 52 55 E 8 12 12128 11601 3801 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 56 61 S 9 13 13554 12686 4886 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 59 66 SSW 10 16 14772 14026 6226 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 61 68 SW 11 17 15493 14501 6701 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 63 70 SW 12 19 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 64 70 SW 13 20 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 65 69 SW 14 21 16097 14730 6930 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 64 67 WSW 14 21 14948 14265 6465 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 63 64 WSW 14 21 14319 13482 5682 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 14 21 13554 12686 4886 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 13 20 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 12 19 11788 11513 3713 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 51 51 WSW 11 18 11525 11081 3281 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 10 16 11349 10414 2614 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 47 47 W 9 14 10785 9693 1893 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 9 13 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 9 13 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 9 13 9719 8529 729 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 43 43 NW 9 12 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 8 11 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 8 11 9332 8242 442 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 8 11 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 8 11 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 51 52 ESE 9 12 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 55 57 SE 10 13 12565 11776 3976 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 59 63 S 10 16 14079 13123 5323 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 62 67 S 11 17 14948 14265 6465 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 64 69 SSW 12 18 16097 14730 6930 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 65 70 SSW 13 19 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 66 70 SSW 14 20 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 66 69 SSW 16 21 16097 14730 6930 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 66 68 SW 17 23 15493 14501 6701 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 65 65 SW 17 23 14556 13786 5986 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 62 62 SW 16 21 13836 12832 5032 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 59 59 SW 14 20 12858 12403 4603 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 13 19 12426 11688 3888 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 12 18 11788 11513 3713 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 11 16 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 10 14 11437 10750 2950 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 WSW 9 13 11120 10070 2270 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 8 12 10785 9693 1893 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 8 12 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 8 11 10101 8921 1121 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 8 11 9719 8529 729 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 44 44 ESE 8 11 9719 8529 729 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 46 46 SE 8 11 10446 9310 1510 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 49 49 SE 8 11 11349 10414 2614 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 52 53 SSE 9 12 11700 11426 3626 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 56 58 SSE 10 14 12711 12052 4252 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 59 63 S 12 17 14079 13123 5323 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 62 67 S 13 19 14948 14265 6465 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 64 70 S 16 21 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 65 71 SSW 17 23 17280 15330 7530 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 66 71 SSW 18 24 17280 15330 7530 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 66 70 SSW 19 25 16677 14904 7104 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 66 68 SSW 19 25 15493 14501 6701 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 64 65 SSW 18 25 14556 13786 5986 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 17 24 13554 12686 4886 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 14 23 12711 12052 4252 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 55 55 SW 13 20 12128 11601 3801 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 12 19 11612 11338 3538 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 12 18 11437 10750 2950 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]