Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 63 64 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 67 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 70 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 72 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 72 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 72 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 69 71 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 70 71 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 60 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 60 60 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 61 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 64 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 67 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 68 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 69 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 70 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 69 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 70 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 69 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 61 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 61 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 57 57 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 58 58 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 59 59 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 61 61 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 63 64 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 65 67 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 66 69 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 67 71 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 71 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 71 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 70 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 70 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 62 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 61 61 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 59 59 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 57 57 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 56 56 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 61 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 65 SSE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 67 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 69 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 66 70 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 70 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 68 70 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 68 69 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 67 67 S 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 64 64 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 62 62 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 54 54 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 59 59 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 61 63 SE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 63 66 SSE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 65 68 SSE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 67 70 SSE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 68 71 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 69 72 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 69 71 S 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 68 69 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 67 67 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 65 65 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 59 59 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 65 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 68 ESE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 71 ESE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 69 74 SSE 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 70 75 SSW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 75 SW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 71 74 SSW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 71 73 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 70 70 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 68 68 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 65 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 60 60 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]