Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 70 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 74 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 75 79 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 77 82 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 77 82 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 78 82 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 76 79 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 76 77 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 62 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 67 69 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 70 74 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 73 75 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 75 78 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 75 78 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 76 78 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 76 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 74 75 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 72 72 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 61 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 58 58 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 55 55 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 61 61 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 65 66 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 71 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 75 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 76 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 77 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 74 77 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 74 76 SW 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 73 74 SW 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 71 71 SW 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 66 66 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 63 63 SW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 60 60 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 59 59 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 54 54 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 53 53 SW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 54 54 SW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 56 56 SW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 59 59 SW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 62 64 SW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 66 69 SW 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 70 72 SW 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 72 75 SW 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 73 75 SW 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 73 75 SW 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 73 74 SW 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 72 73 SW 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 71 71 SW 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 65 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 SW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 65 SW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 68 70 SSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 71 73 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 75 SSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 73 75 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 73 75 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 73 74 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 72 72 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 68 SW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 61 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 67 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 72 SE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 72 74 SE 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 77 SE 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 74 77 SSE 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 74 76 S 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 74 76 S 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 73 74 SW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 60 60 SSE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]