Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 SSW 11 16 7334 7292 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 12 17 7282 7292 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 38 38 SSW 13 18 7231 7292 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 36 36 SSW 13 19 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 16 21 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SSW 16 23 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 16 23 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 SSW 18 25 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 42 SSW 20 33 8109 7292 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 47 50 SSW 21 34 10941 9872 2580 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 50 55 SSW 21 35 11651 11377 4085 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 53 60 SSW 24 39 12624 11811 4519 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 55 62 SSW 26 42 12968 12458 5166 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 55 62 SSW 27 43 12968 12458 5166 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 56 62 SSW 27 44 12968 12458 5166 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 55 59 SSW 28 44 12483 11724 4432 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 55 57 SSW 28 44 11830 11550 4258 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 53 54 SSW 27 43 11563 11227 3935 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 48 48 SSW 25 41 10269 9111 1819 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 23 36 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 43 43 SW 23 35 8398 7333 41 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 21 31 7693 7292 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 39 39 SW 19 27 7282 7292 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 37 37 SW 18 26 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SW 17 24 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 SW 16 21 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SW 13 19 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 SW 13 19 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SW 16 21 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SW 16 21 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 SW 13 19 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SW 12 18 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 SW 11 18 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 40 41 WSW 13 20 7693 7292 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 42 44 WSW 13 21 8743 7683 391 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 44 47 WSW 14 24 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 46 49 WSW 16 26 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 48 52 WSW 17 28 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 49 52 W 18 29 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 50 53 W 18 28 11476 10899 3607 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 50 52 W 17 26 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 16 24 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 47 47 W 14 21 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 12 20 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 11 18 8109 7292 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 10 17 7334 7292 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 38 38 WSW 10 16 7231 7292 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 37 37 WSW 10 14 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 WSW 10 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 WSW 9 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 WSW 9 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 WSW 8 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 8 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 W 6 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 W 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 W 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 41 W 5 9 7693 7292 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 46 49 W 6 11 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 52 57 WNW 9 13 11830 11550 4258 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 57 63 WNW 10 16 13331 12597 5305 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 60 67 WNW 11 17 14404 13612 6320 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 61 68 W 12 18 14639 13872 6580 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 62 68 W 12 18 14639 13872 6580 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 63 67 W 12 19 14404 13612 6320 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 64 66 W 12 19 14167 13257 5965 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 63 64 WSW 12 19 13685 12742 5450 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 11 18 12483 11724 4432 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 10 16 11651 11377 4085 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 9 13 10941 9872 2580 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 47 47 WSW 9 12 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 45 45 WSW 9 12 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 43 43 WSW 9 12 8398 7333 41 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 WSW 9 12 7693 7292 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 40 40 WSW 8 12 7334 7292 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 8 12 7282 7292 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 6 11 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 5 10 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 5 9 7180 7292 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 5 9 7282 7292 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 43 43 WSW 6 10 8398 7333 41 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 48 49 WSW 8 12 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 54 57 WSW 10 14 11830 11550 4258 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 59 64 WSW 11 18 13685 12742 5450 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 64 71 WSW 13 20 15696 14580 7288 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 67 74 WSW 14 23 17462 15522 8230 Blue 38
1 PM Wed 68 75 WSW 16 24 18144 16108 8816 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 68 74 WSW 17 25 17462 15522 8230 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 69 73 WSW 17 26 16857 14961 7669 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 68 70 WSW 17 26 15078 14346 7054 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 67 68 WSW 16 25 14639 13872 6580 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 14 24 13685 12742 5450 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 14 23 12483 11724 4432 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 13 20 11651 11377 4085 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 12 19 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 51 51 WSW 11 17 11272 10234 2942 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 10 16 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 WSW 10 14 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 9 14 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 9 13 8743 7683 391 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 9 12 8109 7292 0 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 8 11 8109 7292 0 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 8 11 8109 7292 0 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 8 11 8743 7683 391 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 8 11 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 51 52 WSW 9 12 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 56 58 WSW 10 14 12341 11637 4345 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 11 17 13927 12897 5605 Blue 29
11 AM Thu 67 71 SW 12 19 15696 14580 7288 Blue 35
12 Noon Thu 69 74 SW 13 21 17462 15522 8230 Blue 38
1 PM Thu 70 75 SW 14 24 18144 16108 8816 Blue 39
2 PM Thu 70 74 SW 16 25 17462 15522 8230 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 70 73 SW 17 26 16857 14961 7669 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 70 71 SW 17 25 15696 14580 7288 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 68 68 SW 17 25 14639 13872 6580 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 17 25 13685 12742 5450 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 16 24 12624 11811 4519 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 14 23 11738 11463 4171 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 21 11563 11227 3935 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 52 52 SW 13 19 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 12 18 11272 10234 2942 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SW 11 17 10607 9494 2202 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 47 47 SW 11 14 9906 8723 1431 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 10 13 9524 8386 1094 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 9 12 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 11 8743 7683 391 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 11 8743 7683 391 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 8 11 9136 8100 808 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 8 12 10269 9111 1819 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 52 53 SW 9 14 11476 10899 3607 Blue 17
9 AM Fri 58 60 SW 10 17 12624 11811 4519 Blue 24
10 AM Fri 63 67 SW 12 19 14404 13612 6320 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 68 73 SW 14 21 16857 14961 7669 Blue 37
12 Noon Fri 70 76 SW 16 24 19000 16670 9378 White 40
1 PM Fri 70 76 SW 17 26 19000 16670 9378 White 40
2 PM Fri 69 74 SW 18 27 17462 15522 8230 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 69 72 SW 18 27 16286 14788 7496 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 69 71 SW 18 27 15696 14580 7288 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 17 26 14833 14111 6819 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 16 25 13927 12897 5605 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 60 60 SW 16 23 12624 11811 4519 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 14 21 11738 11463 4171 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 13 20 11476 10899 3607 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 12 18 11389 10568 3276 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]