Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 68 68 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 68 68 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 68 68 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 67 67 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 67 67 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 69 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 69 71 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 71 77 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 81 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 75 80 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 81 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 79 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 77 78 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 76 76 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 72 72 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 71 71 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 70 70 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 69 69 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 69 69 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 69 69 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 68 68 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 68 68 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 67 67 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 68 69 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 70 72 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 71 74 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 74 78 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 76 80 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 76 79 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 76 78 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 78 79 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 71 71 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 71 71 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 71 71 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 70 70 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 69 69 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 68 68 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 68 68 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 68 68 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 67 67 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 66 66 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 66 66 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 67 68 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 71 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 74 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 72 76 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 78 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 78 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 76 78 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 77 78 SSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 77 78 SSW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 75 SSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 73 73 SSW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 70 70 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 70 70 S 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 70 70 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 68 68 S 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 67 67 S 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 66 66 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 66 66 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 64 64 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 64 64 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 67 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 70 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 70 73 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 72 75 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 74 77 SSW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 75 78 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 75 77 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 74 75 SSW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 73 73 SSW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 72 72 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 71 71 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 69 69 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 69 69 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 68 68 SSE 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SSE 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 64 64 SE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 67 SSE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 69 72 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 71 75 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 77 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 78 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 79 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 75 78 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 74 75 SSW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 72 72 SSE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 71 71 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 NE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 69 69 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 69 69 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 68 68 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 65 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 70 73 E 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 73 77 E 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 75 79 SE 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 77 81 S 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 78 82 SW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 78 81 SW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 77 78 SW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 76 76 SW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 74 W 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 NNW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 71 71 N 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 70 70 NNE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]