Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 N 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 N 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 N 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NNE 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 NNE 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 NNE 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 N 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 NE 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 E 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 E 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 51 52 ESE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 55 55 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 57 57 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 58 58 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 S 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 S 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 S 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 48 48 SSE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 50 51 SSE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 53 54 SSE 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 55 56 S 12 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 56 57 S 13 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 S 13 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 53 53 S 12 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 S 11 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 S 10 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 SSE 8 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 SSE 6 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 SSE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 SE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 SE 5 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 ESE 5 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 8 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 43 44 ENE 9 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 ENE 9 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 E 9 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 51 53 SE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 SSE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 52 53 SE 8 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NNE 10 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NNE 10 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 10 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 10 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 NNE 10 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 51 53 NNE 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 52 54 NNE 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 52 53 NNE 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 51 51 NE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 50 50 NE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 NE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 NE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 9 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 10 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 NNE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NNE 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 53 55 NE 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 55 57 NE 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 55 56 NE 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 NE 12 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 NE 12 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 NE 12 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NNE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 11 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NNE 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 9 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 47 48 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 51 52 NNE 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 54 55 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NNE 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NNE 10 13 5744 6500 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]