Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

9 DEC 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 NE 4 8 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 35 35 NE 3 6 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 3 6 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 2 5 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 3 6 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 2 6 7382 7305 805 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 30 30 N 2 5 7382 7305 805 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 35 35 N 3 6 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
8 AM Fri 31 31 NE 2 6 7408 7330 830 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 31 31 NNE 2 6 7408 7330 830 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 37 38 NNE 2 3 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 50 52 NNW 2 4 13879 10460 3960 Blue 31
12 Noon Fri 53 55 NNW 1 2 16872 13689 7189 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 56 58 W 1 1 19648 16647 10147 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 58 60 SW 1 1 21401 18500 12000 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 58 59 WSW 2 2 20534 17584 11084 Blue 38
4 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 1 1 20534 17584 11084 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 58 58 NNW 2 2 19648 16647 10147 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 54 54 NE 2 5 15901 12647 6147 Blue 33
7 PM Fri 49 49 ENE 2 5 10606 9649 3149 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 2 5 8791 8112 1612 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 40 40 ENE 3 6 8347 7666 1166 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 3 7 8124 7534 1034 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 38 38 NE 3 7 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NNE 4 8 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 39 39 NNE 3 7 8124 7534 1034 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 3 8 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 2 5 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 3 6 7675 7483 983 Blue 16
5 AM Sat 37 37 N 4 9 7675 7483 983 Blue 16
6 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 3 7 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 3 6 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
8 AM Sat 32 32 ENE 2 4 7433 7356 856 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 34 34 N 2 5 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 39 40 N 2 5 8347 7666 1166 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 43 45 N 1 2 9453 8775 2275 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 56 58 WSW 0 0 19648 16647 10147 Blue 37
1 PM Sat 49 49 SW 2 3 10606 9649 3149 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 51 51 SW 2 4 12823 9996 3496 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 3 5 19648 16647 10147 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 4 7 13879 10460 3960 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 4 6 14904 11571 5071 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 53 53 S 4 9 14904 11571 5071 Blue 32
7 PM Sat 43 43 S 4 9 9013 8333 1833 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 39 39 SSE 4 8 8124 7534 1034 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 38 38 SSE 4 8 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 37 37 SSE 4 8 7675 7483 983 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 37 37 SSE 5 11 7675 7483 983 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 SSE 4 10 7675 7483 983 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 3 6 8570 7889 1389 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 3 7 8347 7666 1166 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 8 7509 7432 932 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 11 8347 7666 1166 Blue 19
5 AM Sun 38 38 SE 2 4 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
6 AM Sun 34 34 SE 1 3 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 3 8 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
8 AM Sun 32 32 SE 2 6 7433 7356 856 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 34 34 SE 3 6 7484 7407 907 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 41 42 SSE 4 8 8791 8112 1612 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 46 48 S 6 9 10013 9431 2931 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 53 55 S 11 13 16872 13689 7189 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 53 55 S 13 15 16872 13689 7189 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 55 57 S 17 20 18744 15687 9187 Blue 36
3 PM Sun 58 59 S 19 22 20534 17584 11084 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 51 51 S 18 25 12823 9996 3496 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 49 49 S 17 27 10606 9649 3149 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 13 21 9871 9213 2713 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 42 42 S 10 21 8791 8112 1612 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 19 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 45 45 SSE 9 19 9453 8775 2275 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 38 38 SSE 10 21 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 20 7900 7509 1009 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]