Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 31 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SSW 12 18 7533 7469 969 Blue 18
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 10 14 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 9 13 7429 7365 865 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 54 54 S 9 13 7429 7365 865 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 12 7387 7323 823 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 6 10 7366 7303 803 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 5 9 7387 7323 823 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 56 57 SSE 5 9 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 58 60 SSE 6 10 7554 7490 990 Blue 19
9 AM Wed 60 64 SSE 9 14 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 63 69 S 12 20 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 65 73 S 14 25 15738 14450 7950 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 68 76 S 17 27 17510 15609 9109 White 35
1 PM Wed 68 76 S 17 27 17510 15609 9109 White 35
2 PM Wed 68 74 S 17 28 17104 14843 8343 White 33
3 PM Wed 67 72 S 17 28 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 67 70 SSW 17 27 14568 13229 6729 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 66 67 SSW 17 26 13335 9659 3159 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 14 24 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 13 21 8564 7532 1032 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 11 19 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 10 16 7533 7469 969 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 8 12 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 6 10 7470 7407 907 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SSW 5 9 7470 7407 907 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 8 7429 7365 865 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 53 53 S 4 8 7408 7344 844 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 5 8 7387 7323 823 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 9 7366 7303 803 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 10 7366 7303 803 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 6 10 7387 7323 823 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 55 56 S 6 10 7470 7407 907 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 57 59 S 6 11 7533 7469 969 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 59 63 S 6 11 9159 7553 1053 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 63 69 SSW 8 12 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 65 72 SSW 8 13 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
12 Noon Thu 67 74 SSW 9 13 17104 14843 8343 White 33
1 PM Thu 68 75 SW 9 14 17308 15229 8729 White 34
2 PM Thu 69 75 SW 9 14 17308 15229 8729 White 34
3 PM Thu 69 73 SW 9 14 15738 14450 7950 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 69 72 SW 9 14 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 68 69 SW 9 14 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 13 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 13 13335 9659 3159 Blue 26
8 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 8 12 12358 8509 2009 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 6 11 12358 8509 2009 Blue 24
10 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 5 10 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 61 61 SSW 5 9 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SSE 4 8 8564 7532 1032 Blue 21
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 3 5 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
2 AM Fri 57 57 NNE 3 5 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
3 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 4 7450 7386 886 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 5 7408 7344 844 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 3 6 7408 7344 844 Blue 12
6 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 4 8 7450 7386 886 Blue 14
7 AM Fri 58 58 SSE 4 8 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 62 64 S 5 9 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
9 AM Fri 65 69 SSW 6 10 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
10 AM Fri 67 73 SSW 9 11 15738 14450 7950 Blue 32
11 AM Fri 69 76 SSW 10 12 17510 15609 9109 White 35
12 Noon Fri 71 79 SW 11 14 18111 18018 11518 White 38
1 PM Fri 72 79 SW 11 17 18111 18018 11518 White 38
2 PM Fri 73 79 SW 12 19 18111 18018 11518 White 38
3 PM Fri 74 78 SW 13 21 17911 17739 11239 White 37
4 PM Fri 74 76 WSW 14 23 17510 15609 9109 White 35
5 PM Fri 73 74 WSW 14 23 17104 14843 8343 White 33
6 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 14 23 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 14 21 14568 13229 6729 Blue 29
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 13 20 13753 12050 5550 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 12 18 12908 9094 2594 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 10 16 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 9159 7553 1053 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 8 11 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 6 10 7554 7490 990 Blue 19
2 AM Sat 58 58 NNE 5 9 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
3 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 8 7470 7407 907 Blue 15
4 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 5 6 7450 7386 886 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 6 7450 7386 886 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 8 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
7 AM Sat 60 61 N 6 9 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
8 AM Sat 64 66 N 6 10 12908 9094 2594 Blue 25
9 AM Sat 68 72 NW 6 11 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
10 AM Sat 71 77 W 8 13 17711 17459 10959 White 36
11 AM Sat 74 82 WSW 9 14 18752 18752 12252 White 41
12 Noon Sat 76 84 WSW 10 16 19146 19146 12646 White 43
1 PM Sat 77 84 SW 12 18 19146 19146 12646 White 43
2 PM Sat 78 84 SW 13 19 19146 19146 12646 White 43
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 13 20 18752 18752 12252 White 41
4 PM Sat 77 80 WSW 13 20 18325 18325 11825 White 39
5 PM Sat 76 77 WSW 13 20 17711 17459 10959 White 36
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 13 20 17104 14843 8343 White 33
7 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 13 19 14964 13643 7143 Blue 30
8 PM Sat 69 69 SSW 12 18 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 11 17 12908 9094 2594 Blue 25
10 PM Sat 65 65 SSW 10 16 12358 8509 2009 Blue 24
11 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 9 14 9159 7553 1053 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 S 8 13 8564 7532 1032 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 11 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 60 60 NE 6 10 7554 7490 990 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 9 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 6 9 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
5 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 6 9 7491 7427 927 Blue 16
6 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 6 9 7533 7469 969 Blue 18
7 AM Sun 62 63 N 6 10 9159 7553 1053 Blue 22
8 AM Sun 66 68 N 6 11 13753 12050 5550 Blue 27
9 AM Sun 70 74 NNW 8 12 17104 14843 8343 White 33
10 AM Sun 74 80 W 9 13 18325 18325 11825 White 39
11 AM Sun 77 85 SW 10 14 19341 19341 12841 White 44
12 Noon Sun 79 87 SW 11 17 19727 19727 13227 White 46
1 PM Sun 80 88 SW 12 19 19920 19920 13420 White 47
2 PM Sun 80 86 SW 13 20 19534 19534 13034 White 45
3 PM Sun 80 85 SW 13 21 19341 19341 12841 White 44
4 PM Sun 79 82 SW 13 21 18752 18752 12252 White 41
5 PM Sun 77 78 SW 13 20 17911 17739 11239 White 37
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 19 17308 15229 8729 White 34
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 18 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
8 PM Sun 70 70 SSW 11 17 14568 13229 6729 Blue 29
9 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 10 16 13753 12050 5550 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 66 66 NW 10 14 12908 9094 2594 Blue 25
11 PM Sun 65 65 N 9 13 12358 8509 2009 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 N 9 12 10647 7900 1400 Blue 23
1 AM Mon 62 62 NNE 8 12 8564 7532 1032 Blue 21
2 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 8 11 7945 7511 1011 Blue 20
3 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 8 10 7533 7469 969 Blue 18
4 AM Mon 58 58 NNE 6 10 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 58 58 NNE 6 10 7512 7448 948 Blue 17
6 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 10 7554 7490 990 Blue 19
7 AM Mon 64 65 E 6 10 12358 8509 2009 Blue 24
8 AM Mon 68 70 ESE 8 11 14568 13229 6729 Blue 29
9 AM Mon 72 76 SE 9 13 17510 15609 9109 White 35
10 AM Mon 76 81 SSE 11 16 18539 18539 12039 White 40
11 AM Mon 79 85 S 12 19 19341 19341 12841 White 44
12 Noon Mon 80 87 S 14 21 19727 19727 13227 White 46
1 PM Mon 81 88 SSW 16 25 19920 19920 13420 White 47
2 PM Mon 81 87 SSW 17 26 19727 19727 13227 White 46
3 PM Mon 81 85 SSW 18 26 19341 19341 12841 White 44
4 PM Mon 80 83 SSW 18 26 18950 18950 12450 White 42
5 PM Mon 79 80 SSW 17 25 18325 18325 11825 White 39
6 PM Mon 77 77 SSW 16 23 17711 17459 10959 White 36
7 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 13 21 17104 14843 8343 White 33
8 PM Mon 72 72 SSW 12 19 15354 14050 7550 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 69 69 S 11 18 14164 12806 6306 Blue 28
10 PM Mon 68 68 S 11 18 13753 12050 5550 Blue 27

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]