Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 36 26 S 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 25 SE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 24 SSE 2 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 24 SSE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 24 SSE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 24 SSE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 28 SSE 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 28 SW 0 1 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 30 WSW 0 0 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 32 S 0 0 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 36 SSE 2 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 44 SE 3 3 2161 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 54 45 SE 4 4 2306 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 57 48 SE 4 4 3205 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 58 49 SE 4 4 3697 3200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 57 47 SE 3 3 2606 3200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 53 43 S 2 3 1959 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 42 WSW 3 4 1680 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 41 W 2 4 1399 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 38 WNW 3 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 33 WNW 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 35 WNW 3 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 33 WSW 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 30 SW 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 32 SSE 3 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 32 S 4 7 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 26 S 3 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 31 SSE 4 8 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 31 SSE 4 8 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 24 SSE 4 9 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 31 SSE 5 9 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 34 SE 8 11 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 33 SE 8 10 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 37 SSE 9 11 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 38 SSE 11 13 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 38 SSE 12 14 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 40 SSE 14 17 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 40 SSE 13 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 38 SSE 12 13 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 45 35 WSW 3 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 39 29 NW 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 32 NW 7 16 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 29 NNW 9 19 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 27 NW 9 20 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 33 NW 9 19 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 26 NW 4 10 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 26 NW 4 9 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 35 NW 4 9 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 24 NW 3 8 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 24 NW 3 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 31 NNW 2 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 23 NNW 2 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 22 NW 3 8 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 29 NW 3 7 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 23 NW 3 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 27 NW 3 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 23 NNW 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 31 NNW 2 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 35 N 2 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 36 ENE 0 0 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 43 SE 0 0 1959 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 44 ESE 1 1 2161 3200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 54 45 NNE 0 1 2306 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 50 40 WNW 0 1 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 38 WSW 0 1 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 40 SSW 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 30 SSE 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 29 SSE 0 1 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 34 ENE 0 0 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 25 E 0 1 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 25 ESE 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 35 SE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]