Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 26 23 SW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 23 SW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 23 SW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 22 SW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 22 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 22 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 21 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 20 SSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 21 SSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 23 SSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 26 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 29 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 30 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 33 30 SSW 17 27 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 32 29 SSW 17 27 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 32 29 SSW 17 27 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 31 28 SSW 20 33 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 27 SSW 20 33 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 28 25 SSW 20 33 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 29 26 SSW 23 36 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 25 SSW 23 36 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 25 SSW 23 36 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 26 SSW 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 27 SSW 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 28 SSW 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 27 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 27 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 27 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 27 S 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 28 S 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 27 S 29 48 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 26 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 24 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 26 23 SSW 28 46 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 22 SW 26 42 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 26 23 SW 26 42 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 23 SW 26 42 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 25 22 WSW 21 34 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 25 22 WSW 21 34 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 24 21 WSW 21 34 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 21 SW 19 31 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 20 SW 19 31 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 23 20 SW 19 31 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 22 19 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 18 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 20 17 SSW 16 25 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 19 16 WSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 19 16 WSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 18 15 WSW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 15 SW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 14 SW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 12 SW 13 21 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 12 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 12 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 14 11 SSW 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 15 12 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 12 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 15 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 20 17 SSW 6 11 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 22 20 SSW 6 11 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 24 22 SSW 6 11 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 26 24 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 26 23 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 26 23 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 23 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 21 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 18 SSW 8 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 16 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 17 14 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 15 12 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 15 12 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 15 12 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 15 12 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 15 12 SSW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 14 11 SSW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 14 11 SSW 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 14 11 SSW 10 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 15 12 SSW 10 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 12 SSW 10 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 15 S 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 20 17 S 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 21 18 S 10 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 23 20 S 10 18 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 24 21 S 10 18 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 25 22 S 10 18 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 26 23 S 10 20 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 26 23 S 10 20 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 25 22 S 10 20 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 25 22 S 9 19 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 25 22 S 9 19 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 26 23 S 9 19 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 23 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 23 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 24 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 24 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 24 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 24 SSE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 24 SE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 23 SE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 23 SE 10 17 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 22 SSE 9 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 21 SSE 9 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 21 SSE 9 16 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 21 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 21 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 21 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 25 22 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 26 23 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 26 23 S 9 14 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 27 24 SSW 5 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 27 24 SSW 5 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 27 24 SSW 5 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 27 24 SSW 6 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 26 23 SSW 6 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 25 22 SSW 6 13 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 21 NE 6 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 23 20 NE 6 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 23 20 NE 6 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 22 19 NE 6 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 22 19 NE 6 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 18 NE 6 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 21 18 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 20 17 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 19 16 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 18 15 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 14 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 12 NNE 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 12 NE 5 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 17 14 NE 5 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 20 17 NE 5 8 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 22 20 S 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 24 22 S 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 26 24 S 5 9 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 27 25 SSW 4 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 28 26 SSW 4 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 28 25 SSW 4 10 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 27 24 SSW 5 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 26 23 SSW 5 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 24 21 SSW 5 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 22 19 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 21 18 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 21 18 S 9 12 6129 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 21 18 S 9 11 6129 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]