Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 32 29 WSW 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 27 W 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 26 W 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 26 W 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 26 N 2 4 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 25 N 2 4 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 25 N 2 4 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 25 N 4 6 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 27 N 4 6 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 30 N 4 6 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 34 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 39 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 41 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 42 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 42 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 41 E 3 5 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 40 NNE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 38 NNE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 33 NNE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 32 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 31 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 31 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 29 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 28 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 28 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 27 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 27 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 26 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 25 ENE 9 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 25 ENE 9 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 23 ENE 9 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 24 NE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 25 NE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 28 NE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 32 ENE 13 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 34 ENE 13 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 37 35 ENE 13 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 38 35 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 35 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 37 34 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 36 33 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 34 31 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 31 28 ENE 13 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 26 ENE 12 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 28 25 ENE 12 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 25 ENE 12 16 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 25 ENE 12 17 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 25 ENE 12 17 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 24 ENE 12 17 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 11 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 11 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 11 14 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 9 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 9 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 23 ENE 9 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 23 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 24 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 29 26 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 28 ENE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 33 31 ENE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 33 ENE 10 13 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 34 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 33 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 33 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 32 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 30 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 31 28 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 27 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 26 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 25 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 25 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 25 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 24 ENE 10 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 24 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 24 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 24 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 24 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 23 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 23 ENE 8 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 24 ENE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 25 ENE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 30 27 ENE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 29 E 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 32 E 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 34 E 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 36 SE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 39 36 SE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 35 SE 6 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 34 E 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 32 E 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 31 E 5 9 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 29 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 28 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 27 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 27 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 27 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 26 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 26 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 26 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 26 ENE 6 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 26 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 25 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 24 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 25 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 26 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 30 27 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 29 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 32 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 34 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 35 E 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 35 E 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 34 E 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 33 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 31 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 30 ENE 6 10 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 28 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 27 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 26 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 26 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 26 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 25 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 25 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 25 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 24 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 24 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 23 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 23 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 24 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 25 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 28 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 30 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 34 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 37 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 39 E 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 38 E 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 40 37 E 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 35 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 33 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 30 ENE 8 11 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 28 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 27 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 26 ENE 8 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 26 ENE 9 12 5984 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]