Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 54 51 SSW 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 50 SSW 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 49 SSW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 49 SSW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 48 SSW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 47 SSW 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 48 SSW 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 46 SSW 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 48 SSW 6 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 53 SSW 6 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 60 SSW 6 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 66 SSW 12 20 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 69 SSW 12 20 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 67 70 SSW 12 20 10522 6188 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 68 70 SW 18 28 10522 6188 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 67 68 SW 18 28 7771 6188 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 66 66 SW 18 28 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 62 SW 18 28 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 59 SW 18 28 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 57 SW 18 28 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 55 SSW 17 34 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 51 SSW 17 34 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 49 SSW 17 34 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 47 SW 16 23 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 46 SW 16 23 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 44 SW 16 23 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 43 SW 10 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 41 SW 10 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 40 SW 10 13 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 39 WSW 3 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 39 WSW 3 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 38 WSW 3 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 39 SSW 3 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 42 SSW 3 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 3 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 54 SW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 58 SW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 62 SW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 64 WSW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 63 WSW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 4 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 58 W 3 9 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 56 W 3 9 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 53 W 3 9 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 49 NNW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 46 NNW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 44 NNW 2 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 42 NNE 11 17 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 40 NNE 11 17 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 39 NNE 11 17 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 39 NNE 11 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 38 NNE 11 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 37 NNE 11 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 37 NE 10 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 37 NE 10 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 37 NE 10 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 39 NE 8 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 44 NE 8 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 12 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 56 E 4 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 62 E 4 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 66 E 4 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 69 E 2 4 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 68 69 E 2 4 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 69 69 E 2 4 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 68 66 N 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 62 N 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 59 N 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 55 NNE 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 51 NNE 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 48 NNE 2 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 45 NNE 4 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 44 NNE 4 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 43 NNE 4 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 43 NNE 4 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 42 NNE 4 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 41 NNE 4 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 40 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 40 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 41 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 43 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 49 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 57 NE 3 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 64 SSW 2 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 69 SSW 2 5 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 69 72 SSW 2 5 11592 8279 2091 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 70 72 SW 3 8 11592 8279 2091 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 70 71 SW 3 8 11030 7679 1491 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 69 69 SW 3 8 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 67 65 WSW 5 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 60 WSW 5 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 56 WSW 5 10 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 53 WSW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 51 WSW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 49 WSW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 48 NNW 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 46 NNW 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 45 NNW 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 44 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 1 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 42 NNE 1 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 42 NNE 1 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 44 ENE 2 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 49 ENE 2 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 56 ENE 2 5 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 63 SSE 2 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 SSE 2 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 70 SSE 2 6 10522 6188 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 69 71 S 3 8 11030 7679 1491 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 69 70 S 3 8 10522 6188 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 69 69 S 3 8 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 67 65 S 3 8 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 61 S 3 8 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 57 S 3 8 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 54 N 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 52 N 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 50 N 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 49 NE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 47 NE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 46 NE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 45 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 44 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 44 NNE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 44 NE 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 44 NE 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 44 NE 0 3 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 46 SE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 51 SE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 58 SE 1 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 65 S 3 6 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 69 S 3 6 9745 6188 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 69 71 S 3 6 11030 7679 1491 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 70 72 SSW 4 9 11592 8279 2091 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 70 71 SSW 4 9 11030 7679 1491 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 4 9 10522 6188 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 68 66 SW 5 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 62 SW 5 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 59 SW 5 11 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 56 SW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 53 SW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 51 SW 0 4 5569 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]