Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.67264, -122.49, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 51 31 NNE 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 30 NNE 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 30 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 NNE 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 NNE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 29 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 29 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 NE 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 29 NE 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 30 NE 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 32 NE 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 34 NNE 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 36 NNE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 36 N 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 37 N 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 36 NNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 NNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 NNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 NNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 33 NNW 5 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 N 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 N 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 N 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 N 5 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 NNE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 NNE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 31 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 31 NE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 35 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 36 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 37 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 38 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 38 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 37 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 31 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 31 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 32 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 33 N 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 34 N 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 35 N 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 35 NNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 35 NNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 34 NNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 34 NW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 34 NW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 34 NW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 NNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 NNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 NNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 30 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 30 NE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 31 NE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 31 NE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 33 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 34 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 35 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 37 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 37 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 37 NE 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 NNE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 36 NNE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 35 NNE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 35 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 34 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 34 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 33 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 32 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 30 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 30 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 30 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 31 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 32 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 34 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 36 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 36 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 57 37 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 37 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 NE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 36 NE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 NE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 33 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 33 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 33 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 35 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 37 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 38 ENE 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 37 ENE 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 38 ENE 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 37 ENE 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 37 ENE 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 ENE 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]