Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.67264, -122.49, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 41 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 41 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 41 WNW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 41 WNW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 42 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 45 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 46 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 47 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 46 W 18 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 46 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 44 WNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 WNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 20 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 20 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 20 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 41 NW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 40 WNW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 40 WNW 21 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 40 NW 20 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 40 NW 20 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 40 NW 20 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 40 NW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 40 NW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 39 NW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 40 NW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 40 NW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 42 NW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 45 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 46 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 46 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 46 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 46 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 44 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 43 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 42 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 NW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 NW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 40 NW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 39 NW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 39 NW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 38 NW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 38 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 38 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 38 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 39 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 40 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 43 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 46 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 48 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 48 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 47 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 46 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 45 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 43 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 42 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 41 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 41 WNW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 39 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 39 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 38 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 38 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 38 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 38 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 38 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 40 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 41 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 43 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 43 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 45 WSW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 44 WSW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 43 WSW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 43 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 41 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 39 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 38 SW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 SW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 SW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 40 SSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 42 SSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 45 SSW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 46 SSW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 48 SSW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 49 SW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 48 SW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 46 SW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 45 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 43 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 42 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 40 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 40 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 39 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 39 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 38 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 39 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 39 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 40 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 41 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 42 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 46 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 47 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 48 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 48 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 48 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 46 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 45 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 43 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 42 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 40 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]