Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.67264, -122.49, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 50 30 ESE 12 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 30 E 10 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 30 ENE 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 E 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 E 17 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 E 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 ENE 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 NE 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 30 ENE 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 32 NNE 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 33 N 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 35 N 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 37 NNW 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 37 NW 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 38 NW 13 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 36 WNW 14 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 35 WNW 16 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 34 W 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 NW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 NW 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 NW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 NW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 NW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 NW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 NW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 30 NW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 30 NW 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 31 NW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 31 NNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 33 NNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 34 NW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 36 W 6 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 37 W 6 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 38 W 6 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 39 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 39 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 38 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 36 WNW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 WNW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 34 WNW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 34 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 33 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 WNW 10 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 WNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 WNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 WNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 35 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 37 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 41 WNW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 43 WNW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 43 WNW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 44 WNW 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 43 WNW 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 41 WNW 11 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 40 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 33 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 37 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 40 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 43 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 45 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 47 N 8 11 85 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 47 NW 10 14 85 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 46 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 44 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 42 WNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 WNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 WNW 9 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 WNW 9 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 WNW 9 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 NW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 34 NW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 NW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 37 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 39 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 43 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 43 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 44 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 45 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 44 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 43 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 41 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 39 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 35 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 35 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 36 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 38 W 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 41 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 42 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 43 W 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 43 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 42 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 41 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 39 W 13 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 37 W 13 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 36 W 13 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]