Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.67264, -122.49, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 45 25 W 3 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 25 W 3 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 24 W 4 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 24 W 4 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 23 W 4 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 24 WNW 4 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 24 WSW 4 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 23 SSE 4 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 25 SE 4 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 29 SSE 4 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 35 S 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 36 S 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 38 SSW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 38 SW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 37 SSW 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 36 SSW 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 34 SSW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 32 S 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 31 S 11 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 30 S 10 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 30 S 11 14 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 30 S 13 16 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 30 S 13 17 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 30 S 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 S 17 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 31 S 18 23 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 S 19 25 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 S 23 27 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 31 S 23 28 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 31 S 21 27 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 30 S 18 23 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 29 S 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 29 SSW 12 16 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 30 WSW 13 17 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 31 WSW 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 32 WSW 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 32 WSW 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 31 W 12 16 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 30 W 12 16 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 29 W 12 16 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 28 W 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 27 W 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 26 W 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 25 WNW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 24 WNW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 24 WNW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 25 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 24 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 24 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 24 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 24 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 23 NW 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 23 N 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 22 N 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 22 N 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 22 ENE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 24 ENE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 27 ENE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 31 E 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 33 E 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 35 E 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 34 NE 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 34 NE 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 32 NE 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 30 NNW 5 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 29 NNW 5 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 27 NNW 5 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 26 ENE 3 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 25 ENE 3 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 24 ENE 3 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 24 ESE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 24 ESE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 24 ESE 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 24 SE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 24 SE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 23 SE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 23 SE 11 14 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 23 SE 11 14 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 23 SE 11 14 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 24 SSE 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 SSE 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 30 SSE 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 32 S 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 34 S 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 35 S 16 20 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 35 S 18 23 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 34 S 18 23 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 34 S 18 23 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 32 S 17 21 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 31 S 17 21 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 29 S 17 21 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 28 S 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 28 S 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 28 S 14 18 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 28 S 9 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 S 9 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 S 9 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 SSW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 28 SSW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 27 SSW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 27 SSW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 SSW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 SSW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 26 S 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 28 S 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 30 S 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 32 S 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 33 S 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 34 S 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 34 SW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 34 SW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 32 SW 8 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 30 W 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 29 W 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 27 W 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 26 N 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 25 N 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 25 N 10 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 25 N 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 25 N 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 25 N 9 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 23 NNE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 23 NNE 9 11 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 22 NNE 8 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 21 NNE 8 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 21 NNE 8 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 21 NNE 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 27 NNE 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 31 N 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 33 N 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 35 N 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 34 NW 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 53 34 NW 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 32 NW 6 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 30 WNW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 29 WNW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 27 WNW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 25 NW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 25 NW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 25 NW 6 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 24 NNE 5 8 125 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]