Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 43 38 ENE 3 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 3 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 3 7 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 37 ENE 3 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 37 ENE 3 7 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 6 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 42 ENE 2 5 4108 4460 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 49 45 SW 1 2 4451 4460 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 51 48 WSW 3 4 4642 4460 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 54 51 SW 4 4 5452 4639 179 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 55 52 SW 4 4 5753 4827 367 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 55 51 WSW 4 4 5452 4639 179 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 55 50 SW 3 4 5149 4576 116 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 55 50 SW 3 4 5149 4576 116 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 52 47 WSW 3 5 4578 4460 0 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 1 3 4378 4460 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 48 43 ENE 4 9 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 47 42 ENE 5 10 4108 4460 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 46 41 ENE 5 10 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 46 41 ENE 4 9 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 45 40 ENE 3 8 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 43 38 E 4 9 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 38 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 39 ENE 5 11 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 38 ENE 3 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 38 ENE 4 9 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 38 E 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 E 4 8 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 46 41 ESE 4 7 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 43 38 SE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 43 ESE 4 7 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 48 43 SE 3 5 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 47 42 SE 3 4 4108 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 49 44 SSE 2 3 4378 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 48 43 SSW 2 3 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 49 44 SSE 1 2 4378 4460 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 46 41 ESE 3 5 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 46 41 E 6 8 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 43 38 E 5 7 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 40 E 5 8 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 45 40 E 1 2 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 45 40 SW 3 4 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 44 39 W 5 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 36 N 5 7 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 39 ENE 4 6 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 36 ENE 1 2 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 34 ENE 0 1 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 40 NNE 1 2 3801 4460 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 38 33 NE 3 6 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 32 NE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 38 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 31 ENE 5 10 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 30 ENE 5 10 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 36 ENE 5 10 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 33 ENE 4 7 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 38 WSW 0 0 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 41 SSW 3 4 3994 4460 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 46 43 SW 3 3 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 48 45 SW 3 4 4451 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 50 46 WSW 3 3 4514 4460 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 50 45 W 4 4 4451 4460 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 48 43 WSW 4 5 4243 4460 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 47 42 WSW 2 3 4108 4460 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 42 37 SW 0 1 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 35 NE 2 4 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 38 ENE 2 5 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 34 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 34 ENE 4 8 3399 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 38 ENE 4 9 3399 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]