Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 49 44 NE 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 43 ENE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 43 E 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 41 NNE 0 1 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 41 NE 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 40 ENE 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 39 E 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 40 NE 0 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 40 E 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 44 S 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 49 SW 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 50 WSW 4 6 2523 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 51 WSW 5 8 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 56 52 W 5 9 2920 4460 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 56 51 W 5 8 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 57 52 W 5 8 2920 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 54 49 W 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 46 NNW 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 44 NNE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 41 ESE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 40 E 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 40 ENE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 39 E 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 38 ENE 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 39 NE 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 38 NNE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 38 NE 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 38 ENE 1 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 36 ENE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 36 ENE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 36 ENE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 35 NE 2 2 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 37 ENE 2 3 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 41 SW 2 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 46 WSW 4 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 49 WSW 4 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 51 WSW 4 6 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 55 52 WSW 5 9 2920 4460 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 55 51 WSW 5 9 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 54 49 WSW 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 47 W 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 44 W 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 41 W 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 39 ENE 2 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 38 ENE 2 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 39 ENE 2 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 39 ENE 3 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 39 ENE 3 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 39 ENE 3 4 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 37 ENE 3 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 37 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 40 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 45 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 50 SSW 3 5 2523 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 53 SSW 3 5 2977 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 58 55 SSW 3 5 3199 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 58 55 W 5 8 3199 4460 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 58 54 W 5 8 3065 4460 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 57 52 W 5 8 2920 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 56 51 W 5 6 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 54 49 W 5 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 46 W 5 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 43 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 42 ENE 4 5 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 42 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 42 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 43 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 41 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 41 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 49 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 54 S 5 8 3065 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 56 S 5 8 3275 4460 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 62 58 S 5 8 3426 4460 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 62 58 WSW 5 10 3426 4460 0 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 61 56 WSW 5 10 3275 4460 0 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 60 55 WSW 5 10 3199 4460 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 58 53 NNW 5 8 2977 4460 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 56 51 NNW 5 8 2721 4460 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 53 48 NNW 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 46 NNW 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 45 NNW 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 46 NNW 5 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 46 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 46 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 46 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 45 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 E 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 E 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 43 E 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 44 E 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 47 E 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 50 E 6 9 2523 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 54 S 5 9 3065 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 58 S 5 9 3426 4460 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 63 59 S 5 9 3510 4460 0 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 64 60 S 5 9 4017 4460 0 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 64 59 S 5 9 3510 4460 0 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 62 57 S 5 9 3351 4460 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 60 55 NNE 4 6 3199 4460 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 58 53 NNE 4 6 2977 4460 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 55 50 NNE 4 6 2523 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 48 NNE 4 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 47 NNE 4 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 47 NNE 4 6 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 47 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 5 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 6 10 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 44 ENE 6 10 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 44 ENE 6 10 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 6 10 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 48 ENE 6 10 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 52 ENE 6 10 2920 4460 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 60 56 SSW 6 10 3275 4460 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 62 58 SSW 6 10 3426 4460 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 64 60 SSW 6 10 4017 4460 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 64 60 SSW 6 10 4017 4460 0 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 63 59 SSW 6 10 3510 4460 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 62 57 SSW 6 10 3351 4460 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 60 55 N 4 8 3199 4460 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 58 53 N 4 8 2977 4460 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 55 50 N 4 8 2523 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 48 N 4 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 47 N 4 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 N 4 8 2159 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 ENE 6 9 2159 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]