Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 NE 4 9 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 68 NE 4 6 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 68 ENE 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 67 E 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 66 E 3 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 65 ESE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 65 ESE 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 63 ESE 3 6 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 65 ESE 4 10 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 71 S 3 6 2732 4460 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 80 78 SSW 4 9 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 82 81 SW 4 11 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 83 84 SW 5 12 4333 4460 0 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 85 86 SW 6 13 4819 4460 0 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 86 87 WSW 6 14 5199 4460 0 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 87 87 WSW 6 13 5199 4460 0 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 88 86 W 5 13 4819 4460 0 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 87 83 W 5 13 4256 4460 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 86 81 WNW 5 12 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 83 78 NW 4 11 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 77 72 N 5 12 2865 4460 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 73 68 NNE 6 11 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 66 NE 4 9 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 NE 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 E 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 ESE 2 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 63 ESE 1 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 62 SE 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 61 SE 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 60 S 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 59 S 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 58 S 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 58 WSW 2 6 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 63 WSW 2 6 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 68 WSW 2 6 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 71 WSW 5 12 2732 4460 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 73 74 WSW 5 12 3161 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 74 75 WSW 5 12 3343 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 77 78 W 6 14 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 78 78 W 6 14 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 78 76 W 6 14 3526 4460 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 79 75 W 5 13 3343 4460 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 77 72 W 5 13 2865 4460 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 74 69 W 5 13 2443 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 66 N 4 9 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 64 N 4 9 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 62 N 4 9 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 60 N 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 59 N 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 59 N 0 1 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 59 N 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 58 N 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 58 N 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 57 S 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 56 S 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 56 S 0 2 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 56 ESE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 60 ESE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 66 ESE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 72 WSW 4 9 2865 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 75 76 WSW 4 9 3526 4460 0 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 76 77 WSW 4 9 3678 4460 0 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 78 79 WSW 5 11 3844 4460 0 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 5 11 3844 4460 0 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 80 78 WSW 5 11 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 79 75 W 4 10 3343 4460 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 77 72 W 4 10 2865 4460 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 74 69 W 4 10 2443 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 66 NE 4 10 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 64 NE 4 10 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 62 NE 4 10 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 61 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 60 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 60 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 59 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 57 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 57 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 58 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 59 E 4 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 64 E 4 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 70 E 4 8 2599 4460 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 76 75 WSW 4 9 3343 4460 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 78 79 WSW 4 9 3844 4460 0 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 80 81 WSW 4 9 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 81 82 WSW 5 12 4184 4460 0 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 82 81 WSW 5 12 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 82 80 WSW 5 12 3987 4460 0 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 81 77 WSW 4 10 3678 4460 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 78 73 WSW 4 10 2998 4460 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 75 70 WSW 4 10 2599 4460 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 73 68 ENE 6 13 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 71 66 ENE 6 13 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 63 ENE 6 13 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 62 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 61 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 61 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 61 E 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 E 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 59 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 59 E 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 60 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 64 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 70 E 3 8 2599 4460 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 76 76 SW 4 10 3526 4460 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 78 79 SW 4 10 3844 4460 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 79 80 SW 4 10 3987 4460 0 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 80 81 WSW 5 12 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 5 12 4124 4460 0 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 82 80 WSW 5 12 3987 4460 0 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 82 78 WSW 4 9 3761 4460 0 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 80 75 WSW 4 9 3343 4460 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 76 71 WSW 4 9 2732 4460 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 73 68 ENE 9 14 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 66 ENE 9 14 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 64 ENE 9 14 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 63 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 62 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 62 E 3 8 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 62 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 62 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 2 4 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 1 3 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 63 E 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 67 E 3 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 73 E 3 5 2998 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 79 79 WSW 4 9 3844 4460 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 81 82 WSW 4 9 4184 4460 0 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 82 83 WSW 4 9 4256 4460 0 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 83 84 WSW 5 12 4333 4460 0 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 84 84 WSW 5 12 4333 4460 0 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 85 83 WSW 5 12 4256 4460 0 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 84 80 W 4 10 3987 4460 0 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 82 77 W 4 10 3678 4460 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 79 74 W 4 10 3161 4460 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 76 71 NE 8 14 2732 4460 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 74 69 NE 8 14 2443 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 67 NE 8 14 2222 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]