Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SE 2 4 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 1 2 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 2 4 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 S 1 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 1 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 S 1 2 2202 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 1 3 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 1 3 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 2 4 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 2 4 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 S 2 2 3981 2657 507 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 48 50 SSW 2 2 4218 3758 1608 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 51 53 SSW 2 2 4500 4210 2060 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 53 55 W 2 2 4625 4433 2283 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 54 55 WNW 3 3 4625 4433 2283 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 3 4 4500 4210 2060 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 52 52 W 3 5 4437 4078 1928 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 4 6 4500 4210 2060 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 3 6 4437 4078 1928 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 51 51 SSW 2 4 4350 3976 1826 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 50 50 S 3 5 4218 3758 1608 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 48 48 SSE 4 7 3981 2657 507 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 47 47 SSE 5 8 3769 2491 341 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 46 46 SSE 6 9 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 SSE 6 10 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 6 9 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 6 9 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 7 10 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 8 11 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 9 12 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 48 48 SSE 9 12 3981 2657 507 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 11 14 3769 2491 341 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 11 15 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 13 18 3769 2491 341 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 12 17 3769 2491 341 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 4 6 3769 2491 341 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 44 44 NNW 6 7 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 43 N 2 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 48 N 2 3 3981 2657 507 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 4 5 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 3 3 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 1 1 4218 3758 1608 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 43 43 SW 1 2 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 2 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 SW 2 2 4086 3315 1165 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 1 1 2202 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 S 1 2 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 2 4 2492 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 2 3 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 2 3 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 SSE 2 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SE 2 4 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 SE 2 5 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SE 2 4 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 1 2 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 1 2 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 0 1 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 1 2 2080 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 ENE 1 1 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 46 48 NNE 1 1 3981 2657 507 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NNE 2 2 4218 3758 1608 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 50 52 N 2 3 4437 4078 1928 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 52 53 NNW 2 2 4500 4210 2060 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 52 52 N 2 3 4437 4078 1928 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 1 1 4350 3976 1826 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 50 50 N 2 3 4218 3758 1608 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 46 46 N 2 4 3328 2347 197 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 45 45 NE 1 2 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 1 2 2659 2202 52 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 43 43 E 1 2 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 E 2 3 2347 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 E 1 3 2202 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]