Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 NNW 5 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 52 NW 6 10 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 52 53 NW 6 10 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 54 55 NW 6 10 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 54 55 WNW 6 10 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 10 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 NW 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 5 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 WNW 5 6 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 5 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 5 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 5 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 NNW 4 5 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 11 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 N 9 13 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 13 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 53 54 N 9 13 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 55 57 N 10 13 3021 2707 557 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 55 56 N 10 13 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 54 54 N 10 13 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 53 53 NNW 9 12 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 52 52 NNW 9 12 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 51 51 NNW 9 12 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 6 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 E 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 E 4 5 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 NE 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 NE 5 8 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 54 NE 5 8 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 53 54 N 6 10 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 54 55 N 6 10 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 53 53 N 6 10 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 53 53 N 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 6 11 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 51 51 N 6 11 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 8 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 10 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 E 6 10 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 54 55 E 6 10 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 55 56 N 6 10 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 56 56 N 6 10 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 55 55 N 6 10 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 11 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 11 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 9 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 E 5 8 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 E 5 8 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 5 8 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 11 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 54 E 6 11 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 55 56 E 6 11 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 56 57 NNE 8 11 3021 2707 557 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 8 11 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 11 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 10 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 53 53 NNE 6 10 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 6 10 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 52 52 E 6 9 2083 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 51 51 E 6 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 E 6 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 E 5 9 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 10 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 10 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 10 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 9 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 11 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 11 1421 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 11 1967 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 ESE 8 12 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 54 55 ESE 8 12 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 56 57 ESE 8 12 3021 2707 557 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 57 58 ESE 9 14 3180 2906 756 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 58 59 ESE 9 14 3255 2961 811 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 57 57 ESE 9 14 3021 2707 557 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 8 12 2963 2400 250 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 55 55 NNE 8 12 2908 2150 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 54 54 NNE 8 12 2709 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 6 11 2415 2150 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]