Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SSE 17 25 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 17 28 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 9 17 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 4 12 1536 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 8 17 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 14 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 9 17 1536 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 5 11 2008 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 9 3257 2150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 45 46 NW 3 4 3901 2150 0 White 2
10 AM Sun 46 47 NW 3 5 4118 2460 310 White 3
11 AM Sun 47 49 WNW 4 5 4559 3964 1814 White 5
12 Noon Sun 48 51 W 8 9 4994 4757 2607 White 7
1 PM Sun 49 52 WNW 8 10 5207 5192 3042 White 8
2 PM Sun 50 53 WNW 9 11 5420 5420 3270 White 9
3 PM Sun 51 53 WNW 9 12 5420 5420 3270 White 9
4 PM Sun 50 51 WNW 10 12 4994 4757 2607 White 7
5 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 13 17 4559 3964 1814 White 5
6 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 12 16 4559 3964 1814 White 5
7 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 11 14 4118 2460 310 White 3
8 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 9 13 4118 2460 310 White 3
9 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 6 10 3901 2150 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 4 9 3901 2150 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 6 10 3901 2150 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 WNW 6 10 3901 2150 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 46 46 W 6 9 3901 2150 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 9 3257 2150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 5 8 3257 2150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 44 44 W 5 8 2470 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 4 6 2470 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 4 5 2470 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 W 3 4 3257 2150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 1 5 3901 2150 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 48 49 WSW 2 6 4559 3964 1814 White 5
10 AM Mon 49 51 W 3 6 4994 4757 2607 White 7
11 AM Mon 50 52 WNW 4 6 5207 5192 3042 White 8
12 Noon Mon 52 55 WNW 4 6 5844 5844 3694 White 11
1 PM Mon 54 57 WNW 4 6 6265 6265 4115 White 13
2 PM Mon 56 61 WNW 6 9 7099 7099 4949 White 17
3 PM Mon 57 61 WNW 6 9 7099 7099 4949 White 17
4 PM Mon 57 60 WNW 6 9 6891 6891 4741 White 16
5 PM Mon 57 59 WNW 9 10 6683 6683 4533 White 15
6 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 9 10 5844 5844 3694 White 11
7 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 9 10 5420 5420 3270 White 9
8 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 10 13 4994 4757 2607 White 7
9 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 10 13 4781 4442 2292 White 6
10 PM Mon 49 49 WNW 10 13 4559 3964 1814 White 5
11 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 8 4335 3219 1069 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 WSW 6 8 4335 3219 1069 White 4
1 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 6 8 4118 2460 310 White 3
2 AM Tue 47 47 SSW 5 8 4118 2460 310 White 3
3 AM Tue 47 47 SSW 5 8 4118 2460 310 White 3
4 AM Tue 46 46 SSW 5 8 3901 2150 0 White 2
5 AM Tue 47 47 SSE 4 6 4118 2460 310 White 3
6 AM Tue 48 48 SSE 4 6 4335 3219 1069 White 4
7 AM Tue 49 49 SSE 4 6 4559 3964 1814 White 5
8 AM Tue 51 51 SSE 4 6 4994 4757 2607 White 7
9 AM Tue 53 54 SSE 4 6 5632 5632 3482 White 10
10 AM Tue 56 59 SSE 4 6 6683 6683 4533 White 15
11 AM Tue 58 63 NW 6 9 7513 7513 5363 White 19
12 Noon Tue 60 67 NW 6 9 8336 8336 6186 White 23
1 PM Tue 62 69 NW 6 9 8743 8743 6593 White 25
2 PM Tue 64 70 NW 10 13 8945 8945 6795 White 26
3 PM Tue 65 70 NW 10 13 8945 8945 6795 White 26
4 PM Tue 65 68 NW 10 13 8540 8540 6390 White 24
5 PM Tue 64 66 NW 12 18 8130 8130 5980 White 22
6 PM Tue 62 62 NW 12 18 7306 7306 5156 White 18
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 12 18 6891 6891 4741 White 16
8 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 10 13 6475 6475 4325 White 14
9 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 10 13 6265 6265 4115 White 13
10 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 10 13 5844 5844 3694 White 11
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 9 5632 5632 3482 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 6 9 5632 5632 3482 White 10
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 6 9 5420 5420 3270 White 9
2 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 5 9 5420 5420 3270 White 9
3 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 5207 5192 3042 White 8
4 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 5207 5192 3042 White 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 4 5 5207 5192 3042 White 8
6 AM Wed 53 53 ENE 4 5 5420 5420 3270 White 9
7 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 4 5 5632 5632 3482 White 10
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 8 6056 6056 3906 White 12
9 AM Wed 58 59 NE 5 8 6683 6683 4533 White 15
10 AM Wed 60 63 NE 5 8 7513 7513 5363 White 19
11 AM Wed 63 67 NNW 6 11 8336 8336 6186 White 23
12 Noon Wed 65 70 NNW 6 11 8945 8945 6795 White 26
1 PM Wed 67 73 NNW 6 11 9549 9549 7399 White 29
2 PM Wed 68 73 NNW 10 13 9549 9549 7399 White 29
3 PM Wed 69 73 NNW 10 13 9549 9549 7399 White 29
4 PM Wed 70 73 NNW 10 13 9549 9549 7399 White 29
5 PM Wed 70 71 NW 10 16 9147 9147 6997 White 27
6 PM Wed 68 68 NW 10 16 8540 8540 6390 White 24
7 PM Wed 66 66 NW 10 16 8130 8130 5980 White 22
8 PM Wed 64 64 NW 9 12 7720 7720 5570 White 20
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 9 12 7306 7306 5156 White 18
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 9 12 6891 6891 4741 White 16
11 PM Wed 59 59 SE 5 9 6683 6683 4533 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SE 5 9 6475 6475 4325 White 14
1 AM Thu 57 57 SE 5 9 6265 6265 4115 White 13
2 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 9 6265 6265 4115 White 13
3 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 5 9 6056 6056 3906 White 12
4 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 5 9 5844 5844 3694 White 11
5 AM Thu 54 54 E 4 8 5632 5632 3482 White 10
6 AM Thu 55 55 E 4 8 5844 5844 3694 White 11
7 AM Thu 56 56 E 4 8 6056 6056 3906 White 12
8 AM Thu 58 58 ENE 5 8 6475 6475 4325 White 14
9 AM Thu 60 61 ENE 5 8 7099 7099 4949 White 17
10 AM Thu 63 65 ENE 5 8 7925 7925 5775 White 21
11 AM Thu 65 68 NW 6 10 8540 8540 6390 White 24
12 Noon Thu 67 71 NW 6 10 9147 9147 6997 White 27
1 PM Thu 69 73 NW 6 10 9549 9549 7399 White 29
2 PM Thu 70 74 NW 9 13 9771 9771 7621 White 30
3 PM Thu 71 75 NW 9 13 9970 9970 7820 White 31
4 PM Thu 71 73 NW 9 13 9549 9549 7399 White 29
5 PM Thu 70 71 WNW 11 14 9147 9147 6997 White 27
6 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 11 14 8540 8540 6390 White 24
7 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 11 14 8130 8130 5980 White 22
8 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 9 14 7513 7513 5363 White 19
9 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 9 14 7099 7099 4949 White 17
10 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 9 14 6683 6683 4533 White 15
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 10 6475 6475 4325 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 6 10 6056 6056 3906 White 12
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 10 5844 5844 3694 White 11
2 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 5 8 5632 5632 3482 White 10
3 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 5 8 5420 5420 3270 White 9
4 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 5 8 5207 5192 3042 White 8
5 AM Fri 52 52 SW 4 8 5207 5192 3042 White 8
6 AM Fri 53 53 SW 4 8 5420 5420 3270 White 9
7 AM Fri 54 54 SW 4 8 5632 5632 3482 White 10
8 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 5 9 5844 5844 3694 White 11
9 AM Fri 57 58 WSW 5 9 6475 6475 4325 White 14
10 AM Fri 59 61 WSW 5 9 7099 7099 4949 White 17
11 AM Fri 61 66 W 8 12 8130 8130 5980 White 22
12 Noon Fri 63 69 W 8 12 8743 8743 6593 White 25
1 PM Fri 65 71 W 8 12 9147 9147 6997 White 27
2 PM Fri 66 72 WNW 11 16 9349 9349 7199 White 28
3 PM Fri 66 71 WNW 11 16 9147 9147 6997 White 27
4 PM Fri 66 69 WNW 11 16 8743 8743 6593 White 25
5 PM Fri 65 67 WNW 13 17 8336 8336 6186 White 23
6 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 13 17 7513 7513 5363 White 19
7 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 13 17 6891 6891 4741 White 16
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 14 6475 6475 4325 White 14
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 14 6056 6056 3906 White 12
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 10 14 5844 5844 3694 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]