Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 10 13 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 12 482 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 12 482 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 9 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 10 482 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 9 482 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 SSE 8 10 482 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 9 10 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 11 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 S 8 10 3696 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 9 11 4130 2150 0 White 3
11 AM Wed 52 54 S 8 11 4786 4786 2636 White 6
12 Noon Wed 55 58 SSW 9 12 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 56 59 SW 9 12 5321 5235 3085 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 57 60 SW 9 12 5343 5257 3107 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 58 60 W 11 14 5343 5257 3107 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 57 58 W 12 16 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 56 57 W 13 18 5261 5215 3065 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 13 17 5002 5002 2852 White 7
7 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 13 16 4567 4217 2067 White 5
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 13 4349 3619 1469 White 4
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 11 12 4349 3619 1469 White 4
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 10 11 3913 2150 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 10 11 3913 2150 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 9 11 3913 2150 0 White 2
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 8 10 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 8 10 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 W 8 10 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 10 482 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 8 9 482 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 8 10 482 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 10 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 11 13 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 12 13 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 WSW 12 16 3696 2150 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 49 51 W 13 18 4130 2150 0 White 3
12 Noon Thu 51 54 W 13 18 4786 4786 2636 White 6
1 PM Thu 52 55 W 13 18 5002 5002 2852 White 7
2 PM Thu 53 57 W 21 24 5261 5215 3065 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 54 57 W 21 24 5261 5215 3065 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 54 56 W 21 24 5214 5199 3049 White 8
5 PM Thu 53 54 W 20 25 4786 4786 2636 White 6
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 20 25 4567 4217 2067 White 5
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 20 25 4349 3619 1469 White 4
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 25 4130 2150 0 White 3
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 25 4130 2150 0 White 3
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 25 4130 2150 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 16 19 4130 2150 0 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 16 19 4130 2150 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 16 19 4130 2150 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 12 14 4130 2150 0 White 3
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 12 14 3913 2150 0 White 2
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 12 14 3913 2150 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 10 13 3913 2150 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 10 13 3913 2150 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 10 13 3913 2150 0 White 2
8 AM Fri 51 51 W 21 26 4130 2150 0 White 3
9 AM Fri 51 51 W 21 26 4130 2150 0 White 3
10 AM Fri 51 52 W 21 26 4349 3619 1469 White 4
11 AM Fri 51 53 W 25 33 4567 4217 2067 White 5
12 Noon Fri 53 55 W 25 33 5002 5002 2852 White 7
1 PM Fri 54 57 W 25 33 5261 5215 3065 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 55 58 W 26 32 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 55 57 W 26 32 5261 5215 3065 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 54 55 W 26 32 5002 5002 2852 White 7
5 PM Fri 53 55 W 26 35 5002 5002 2852 White 7
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 26 35 4349 3619 1469 White 4
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 26 35 4130 2150 0 White 3
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 21 34 3913 2150 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 21 34 3913 2150 0 White 2
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 21 34 3696 2150 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 18 25 3696 2150 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 18 25 3696 2150 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 18 25 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 13 18 482 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 13 18 482 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 13 18 482 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 W 8 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 W 8 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 W 8 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 W 8 11 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 W 8 11 4349 3619 1469 White 4
10 AM Sat 52 55 W 8 11 5002 5002 2852 White 7
11 AM Sat 54 60 W 10 14 5343 5257 3107 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 56 63 W 10 14 5417 5342 3192 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 57 64 W 10 14 5446 5358 3208 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 58 65 W 13 18 5478 5381 3231 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 58 63 W 13 18 5417 5342 3192 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 58 62 W 13 18 5385 5318 3168 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 56 58 W 16 23 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 23 5002 5002 2852 White 7
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 23 4567 4217 2067 White 5
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 14 19 4349 3619 1469 White 4
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 14 19 3913 2150 0 White 2
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 14 19 3913 2150 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 11 14 3696 2150 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 WSW 11 14 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 11 14 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SW 8 12 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SW 8 12 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SW 8 12 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 8 11 3696 2150 0 White 1
6 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 8 11 3696 2150 0 White 1
7 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 8 11 3913 2150 0 White 2
8 AM Sun 51 51 W 9 12 4130 2150 0 White 3
9 AM Sun 52 53 W 9 12 4567 4217 2067 White 5
10 AM Sun 53 55 W 9 12 5002 5002 2852 White 7
11 AM Sun 54 59 W 11 16 5321 5235 3085 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 56 62 W 11 16 5385 5318 3168 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 58 64 W 11 16 5446 5358 3208 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 60 67 WNW 14 19 5564 5443 3293 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 60 66 WNW 14 19 5513 5413 3263 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 60 64 WNW 14 19 5446 5358 3208 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 59 61 WNW 16 20 5359 5287 3137 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 58 59 WNW 16 20 5321 5235 3085 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 16 20 5002 5002 2852 White 7
8 PM Sun 53 53 W 14 18 4567 4217 2067 White 5
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 18 4349 3619 1469 White 4
10 PM Sun 51 51 W 14 18 4130 2150 0 White 3
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 10 13 3913 2150 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 10 13 3913 2150 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 49 49 W 10 13 3696 2150 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 9 11 3696 2150 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 9 11 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 9 11 482 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 8 10 482 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 8 10 1871 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 8 10 3696 2150 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 50 50 W 9 12 3913 2150 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 52 54 W 9 12 4786 4786 2636 White 6
10 AM Mon 55 58 W 9 12 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 57 63 WNW 11 16 5417 5342 3192 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 59 66 WNW 11 16 5513 5413 3263 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 61 69 WNW 11 16 5718 5508 3358 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 62 69 WNW 14 20 5718 5508 3358 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 62 68 WNW 14 20 5635 5473 3323 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 61 65 WNW 14 20 5478 5381 3231 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 59 61 WNW 17 21 5359 5287 3137 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 57 58 WNW 17 21 5291 5225 3075 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 17 21 5002 5002 2852 White 7
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 16 20 4349 3619 1469 White 4
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 16 20 4130 2150 0 White 3
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 16 20 3913 2150 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]