Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 SSW 5 10 1784 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 74 74 SSW 5 9 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 SSW 5 9 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 SSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 SSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 71 SSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 SSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 S 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 75 S 5 9 1784 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 77 SSW 5 10 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 80 SSW 5 10 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 81 SSW 5 10 2123 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 80 83 SSW 5 11 2222 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 82 86 WSW 5 11 2397 2222 72 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 82 85 SW 5 11 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 84 88 SW 6 12 2536 2324 174 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 84 86 WSW 6 12 2397 2222 72 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 82 84 SW 6 13 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 6 11 2123 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 6 11 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 6 11 1905 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 76 SSW 6 10 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 74 74 SSW 6 10 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 SSW 6 10 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SSW 5 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 SSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 SSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 SSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 SSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 S 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 SSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 SSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 SW 4 9 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 W 4 10 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 81 W 5 10 2123 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 79 86 W 5 11 2397 2222 72 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 80 87 W 6 11 2468 2271 121 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 82 90 W 6 12 2652 2467 317 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 82 89 W 8 13 2594 2395 245 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 82 87 W 9 13 2468 2271 121 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 81 84 W 9 14 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 9 13 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 9 13 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 12 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 6 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 WSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 WSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 70 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 76 W 5 10 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 79 W 5 11 1946 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 75 83 W 5 12 2222 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 78 87 W 6 13 2468 2271 121 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 79 87 W 6 13 2468 2271 121 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 80 87 W 8 14 2468 2271 121 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 80 85 W 8 14 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 79 82 W 9 14 2173 2150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 77 79 W 9 14 1946 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 9 13 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 13 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 12 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 8 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 WSW 6 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 4 6 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 WSW 4 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 W 4 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 W 4 10 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 78 W 5 11 1905 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 74 82 W 5 12 2173 2150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 76 85 WNW 6 13 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 78 86 WNW 6 13 2397 2222 72 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 78 85 WNW 8 14 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 78 83 WNW 9 14 2222 2150 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 77 80 WNW 9 14 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 78 WNW 9 14 1905 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 74 74 WNW 9 14 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 72 WNW 9 13 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 9 13 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 8 12 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 8 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 6 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 W 5 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 73 W 5 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 76 W 5 11 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 80 W 5 11 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 75 84 WNW 6 12 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 76 84 WNW 6 13 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 77 84 WNW 8 14 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 77 82 WNW 9 14 2173 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 77 80 WNW 9 16 2074 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 75 77 WNW 9 14 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 8 13 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 71 WNW 8 12 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 8 12 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 6 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 WSW 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 5 8 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 W 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 W 5 9 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 74 W 5 10 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 77 W 5 11 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 81 W 5 11 2123 2150 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 76 84 WNW 6 12 2272 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 77 85 WNW 6 13 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 78 85 WNW 8 13 2325 2172 22 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 78 83 WNW 9 14 2222 2150 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 78 81 WNW 9 14 2123 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 76 77 WNW 9 13 1865 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 12 1744 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 11 1732 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 10 1732 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]