Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 4 8 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 4 6 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 4 6 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 4 8 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 8 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 4 8 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 4 8 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 4 6 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 6 9 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 W 6 11 1864 2150 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 64 66 W 9 12 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 70 W 9 14 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 68 74 W 10 16 2703 2182 32 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 69 75 W 11 18 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 69 75 W 12 18 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 70 75 W 13 20 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 67 70 WNW 14 21 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 66 68 W 13 24 2023 2150 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 13 24 1901 2150 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 WNW 13 24 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 13 25 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 26 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 26 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 12 25 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WNW 11 21 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 WNW 11 20 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 WNW 9 17 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 16 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 9 16 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 13 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 WNW 8 13 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 13 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 W 8 17 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 W 8 17 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 60 W 8 17 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 64 WNW 9 17 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 64 69 WNW 9 17 2076 2150 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 66 72 WNW 9 17 2357 2150 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 67 73 WNW 10 19 2571 2150 0 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 68 73 WNW 10 19 2571 2150 0 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 67 70 WNW 10 19 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 66 68 WNW 10 20 2023 2150 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 10 20 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 10 20 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 4 8 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 4 8 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 4 8 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 WSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 WSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 SW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 2 4 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 2 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 SSW 2 5 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 SSW 2 5 1901 2150 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 67 71 WNW 4 10 2183 2150 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 70 76 WNW 4 10 2967 2567 417 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 73 79 WNW 4 10 3479 2962 812 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 74 80 WNW 8 16 3656 3109 959 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 75 80 WNW 8 16 3656 3109 959 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 75 78 WNW 8 16 3298 2830 680 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 73 75 WNW 9 16 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 70 70 WNW 9 16 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 9 16 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 3 5 1864 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 3 5 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 W 3 5 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 4 5 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 4 5 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 5 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 SSW 4 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 4 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 4 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 3 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SSW 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 SSW 4 6 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 SSW 4 6 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 65 69 WSW 3 9 2076 2150 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 69 74 WSW 3 9 2703 2182 32 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 72 78 WSW 3 9 3298 2830 680 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 73 79 W 5 11 3479 2962 812 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 74 79 W 5 11 3479 2962 812 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 74 77 W 5 11 3117 2699 549 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 72 74 W 6 11 2703 2182 32 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 6 11 2023 2150 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 11 1901 2150 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 3 5 1846 2150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 3 5 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 5 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 4 6 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SSW 4 6 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 4 6 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 4 6 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 S 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 S 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 S 4 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 S 4 8 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 S 4 8 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 S 4 8 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 67 71 WSW 3 9 2183 2150 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 70 75 WSW 3 9 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 72 78 WSW 3 9 3298 2830 680 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 74 80 W 5 11 3656 3109 959 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 74 79 W 5 11 3479 2962 812 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 74 77 W 5 11 3117 2699 549 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 72 74 W 6 11 2703 2182 32 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 11 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 11 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 3 5 1882 2150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 3 5 1846 2150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 3 5 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SW 2 5 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 2 5 1802 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 2 5 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 4 1755 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SW 2 4 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 SW 2 4 1846 2150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 64 66 SW 2 4 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 68 72 W 3 8 2357 2150 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 70 75 W 3 8 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 73 79 W 3 8 3479 2962 812 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 5 12 3656 3109 959 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 75 80 W 5 12 3656 3109 959 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 74 77 W 5 12 3117 2699 549 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 73 75 WNW 6 12 2835 2348 198 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 6 12 2130 2150 0 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 6 12 1919 2150 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 3 6 1864 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 3 6 1846 2150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 3 6 1826 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]