Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.2820, -122.93, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 W 2 3 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 NW 3 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 3 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NW 3 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 NNW 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 NNW 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 NNW 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 E 1 1 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 E 1 1 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 E 1 1 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 11 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 S 6 11 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 43 S 6 11 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 43 S 6 11 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 44 S 6 11 3267 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 43 43 S 6 11 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 S 10 17 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 10 17 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 10 17 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 S 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 S 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SSW 11 19 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SSW 11 19 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SSW 11 19 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 SSW 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 SSW 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 SSW 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 37 SW 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 39 SW 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 39 SW 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 39 W 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 39 39 W 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 38 W 9 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 34 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 W 10 14 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 30 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 NW 6 9 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 S 6 11 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 41 S 6 11 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 43 S 6 11 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 44 S 6 11 3267 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 43 44 S 6 11 3267 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 42 42 S 6 11 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 38 38 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 SSE 4 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 12 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SSE 11 18 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 38 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 39 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 40 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 40 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 S 10 16 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 S 5 6 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 4 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 4 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 4 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 3 4 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 42 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 43 SSE 4 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 43 43 SSE 4 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 SSE 4 5 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 40 40 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 N 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 NNE 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 41 NW 2 3 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 45 NW 2 3 3736 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 45 47 NW 2 3 4068 4000 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 47 49 NW 2 3 4334 4000 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 47 48 NW 2 3 4201 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 46 46 NW 2 3 3969 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 3 4 3267 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 40 40 WNW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 WNW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 34 34 WNW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 WNW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 WNW 3 4 2549 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 3 3 2549 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]