Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250314/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NE 6 11 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 E 3 10 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 SE 5 12 2853 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 SSE 6 13 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 SSE 9 16 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 S 13 21 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SSE 18 27 3335 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SSE 25 36 3335 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 SSE 20 34 3067 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SSE 18 32 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 S 19 32 4231 4000 0 White 2
11 AM Fri 40 40 S 14 25 5330 5028 1028 White 7
12 Noon Fri 43 44 SW 14 26 6201 6201 2201 White 11
1 PM Fri 45 46 WSW 14 28 6634 6634 2634 White 13
2 PM Fri 46 47 W 18 32 6850 6850 2850 White 14
3 PM Fri 46 47 WNW 23 36 6850 6850 2850 White 14
4 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 24 36 6201 6201 2201 White 11
5 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 21 36 6201 6201 2201 White 11
6 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 19 34 5549 5337 1337 White 8
7 PM Fri 39 39 WNW 18 35 5112 4722 722 White 6
8 PM Fri 37 37 NW 18 33 4674 4012 12 White 4
9 PM Fri 35 35 NW 16 26 4231 4000 0 White 2
10 PM Fri 34 34 NW 13 26 4009 4000 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 11 24 4009 4000 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NW 13 26 4231 4000 0 White 2
1 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 13 27 4009 4000 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 9 25 4231 4000 0 White 2
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 25 4009 4000 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 24 4009 4000 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 33 33 NW 9 21 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NNW 6 19 3335 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 NNW 5 16 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NNW 5 14 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 N 10 13 4453 4000 0 White 3
10 AM Sat 40 42 N 9 12 5766 5644 1644 White 9
11 AM Sat 46 49 NNW 6 13 7280 7280 3280 White 16
12 Noon Sat 49 53 NNW 6 13 8135 7929 3929 White 20
1 PM Sat 51 56 NNW 6 13 8772 8619 4619 White 23
2 PM Sat 52 56 NNW 6 13 8772 8619 4619 White 23
3 PM Sat 53 56 NNW 6 13 8772 8619 4619 White 23
4 PM Sat 53 55 NNW 6 13 8560 8354 4354 White 22
5 PM Sat 52 53 NNW 5 12 8135 7929 3929 White 20
6 PM Sat 49 49 NNW 5 12 7280 7280 3280 White 16
7 PM Sat 45 45 NNW 5 12 6418 6418 2418 White 12
8 PM Sat 41 41 N 4 8 5549 5337 1337 White 8
9 PM Sat 39 39 N 4 8 5112 4722 722 White 6
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 4 8 4893 4379 379 White 5
11 PM Sat 38 38 ENE 3 6 4893 4379 379 White 5
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 ENE 3 6 4674 4012 12 White 4
1 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 3 6 4674 4012 12 White 4
2 AM Sun 37 37 SSE 3 6 4674 4012 12 White 4
3 AM Sun 37 37 SSE 3 6 4674 4012 12 White 4
4 AM Sun 36 36 SSE 3 6 4453 4000 0 White 3
5 AM Sun 37 37 SSE 4 8 4674 4012 12 White 4
6 AM Sun 37 37 SSE 4 8 4674 4012 12 White 4
7 AM Sun 38 38 SSE 4 8 4893 4379 379 White 5
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 5 11 5330 5028 1028 White 7
9 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 11 6201 6201 2201 White 11
10 AM Sun 50 51 S 5 11 7708 7626 3626 White 18
11 AM Sun 54 56 S 8 17 8772 8619 4619 White 23
12 Noon Sun 57 59 S 8 17 9405 9405 5405 White 26
1 PM Sun 59 62 S 8 17 10036 10036 6036 White 29
2 PM Sun 59 60 S 10 19 9616 9616 5616 White 27
3 PM Sun 60 61 S 10 19 9826 9826 5826 White 28
4 PM Sun 60 61 S 10 19 9826 9826 5826 White 28
5 PM Sun 58 58 SSW 9 18 9194 9146 5146 White 25
6 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 9 18 8560 8354 4354 White 22
7 PM Sun 51 51 SSW 9 18 7708 7626 3626 White 18
8 PM Sun 47 47 SSW 10 17 6850 6850 2850 White 14
9 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 10 17 6418 6418 2418 White 12
10 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 10 17 5984 5948 1948 White 10
11 PM Sun 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
1 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
2 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
3 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
4 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 10 18 5766 5644 1644 White 9
5 AM Mon 43 43 SSW 9 17 5984 5948 1948 White 10
6 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 9 17 5766 5644 1644 White 9
7 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 9 17 5766 5644 1644 White 9
8 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 9 19 5984 5948 1948 White 10
9 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 19 6201 6201 2201 White 11
10 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 9 19 6850 6850 2850 White 14
11 AM Mon 49 49 W 11 24 7280 7280 3280 White 16
12 Noon Mon 50 50 W 11 24 7494 7475 3475 White 17
1 PM Mon 51 51 W 11 24 7708 7626 3626 White 18
2 PM Mon 51 51 W 13 27 7708 7626 3626 White 18
3 PM Mon 51 51 W 13 27 7708 7626 3626 White 18
4 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 27 7494 7475 3475 White 17
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 16 28 7065 7065 3065 White 15
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 16 28 6418 6418 2418 White 12
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 16 28 5766 5644 1644 White 9
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 14 29 4893 4379 379 White 5
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 14 29 4674 4012 12 White 4
10 PM Mon 36 36 W 14 29 4453 4000 0 White 3
11 PM Mon 36 36 W 16 29 4453 4000 0 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 16 29 4453 4000 0 White 3
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 16 29 4453 4000 0 White 3
2 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 16 28 4453 4000 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 16 28 4453 4000 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 16 28 4453 4000 0 White 3
5 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 16 28 4231 4000 0 White 2
6 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 16 28 4009 4000 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 16 28 4009 4000 0 White 1
8 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 14 27 4009 4000 0 White 1
9 AM Tue 38 39 WNW 14 27 5112 4722 722 White 6
10 AM Tue 42 44 WNW 14 27 6201 6201 2201 White 11
11 AM Tue 46 49 NW 14 29 7280 7280 3280 White 16
12 Noon Tue 49 53 NW 14 29 8135 7929 3929 White 20
1 PM Tue 51 56 NW 14 29 8772 8619 4619 White 23
2 PM Tue 52 56 NNW 13 27 8772 8619 4619 White 23
3 PM Tue 53 56 NNW 13 27 8772 8619 4619 White 23
4 PM Tue 53 55 NNW 13 27 8560 8354 4354 White 22
5 PM Tue 52 53 NNW 11 24 8135 7929 3929 White 20
6 PM Tue 48 48 NNW 11 24 7065 7065 3065 White 15
7 PM Tue 44 44 NNW 11 24 6201 6201 2201 White 11
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 17 5330 5028 1028 White 7
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 9 17 4893 4379 379 White 5
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 9 17 4674 4012 12 White 4
11 PM Tue 36 36 NNW 8 13 4453 4000 0 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 NNW 8 13 4453 4000 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 35 35 NNW 8 13 4231 4000 0 White 2
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 5 11 4231 4000 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 34 34 N 5 11 4009 4000 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 5 11 4009 4000 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 34 34 NNE 4 9 4009 4000 0 White 1
6 AM Wed 34 34 NNE 4 9 4009 4000 0 White 1
7 AM Wed 34 34 NNE 4 9 4009 4000 0 White 1
8 AM Wed 36 36 NNE 4 9 4453 4000 0 White 3
9 AM Wed 41 41 NNE 4 9 5549 5337 1337 White 8
10 AM Wed 46 47 NNE 4 9 6850 6850 2850 White 14
11 AM Wed 51 53 E 6 13 8135 7929 3929 White 20
12 Noon Wed 54 57 E 6 13 8983 8882 4882 White 24
1 PM Wed 56 60 E 6 13 9616 9616 5616 White 27
2 PM Wed 57 59 SW 8 16 9405 9405 5405 White 26
3 PM Wed 58 60 SW 8 16 9616 9616 5616 White 27
4 PM Wed 58 59 SW 8 16 9405 9405 5405 White 26
5 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 13 8983 8882 4882 White 24
6 PM Wed 53 53 W 6 13 8135 7929 3929 White 20
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 6 13 7280 7280 3280 White 16
8 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 5 11 6418 6418 2418 White 12
9 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 5 11 5984 5948 1948 White 10
10 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 5 11 5549 5337 1337 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]