Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 9 3230 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 N 6 10 4321 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 60 61 N 8 11 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 60 61 NNW 8 12 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 61 62 NNW 9 13 5262 4563 563 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 60 60 NNW 9 13 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 59 59 N 8 12 4568 4194 194 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 56 56 N 8 11 4197 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 10 3230 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 5 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NNE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NNE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 8 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 NNE 9 13 4074 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 57 59 NNE 9 13 4568 4194 194 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 58 60 NNE 9 13 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 58 60 N 10 14 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 58 59 N 10 14 4568 4194 194 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 14 4321 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 55 55 N 9 13 4074 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 13 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 9 13 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 5 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 5 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 NNE 5 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 4 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 4 6 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 E 6 10 3721 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 56 58 E 6 10 4444 4071 71 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 58 60 E 6 10 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 59 61 SE 8 11 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 59 60 SE 8 11 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 58 58 SE 8 11 4444 4071 71 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 56 56 ESE 6 10 4197 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 52 52 ESE 6 10 3383 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 ESE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 ESE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 ESE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 SE 5 9 3383 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 SSE 8 11 4321 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 60 SSE 8 11 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 60 61 SSE 8 11 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 61 62 SSE 9 13 5262 4563 563 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 61 61 SSE 9 13 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 60 60 SSE 9 13 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 57 57 SE 6 10 4321 4000 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 54 54 SE 6 10 3721 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 50 50 SE 6 10 3230 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SE 5 8 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 10 3459 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 SSE 8 12 4444 4071 71 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 60 61 SSE 8 12 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 61 62 SSE 8 12 5262 4563 563 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 62 63 SSE 10 16 5513 4775 775 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 61 61 SSE 10 16 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 60 60 SSE 10 16 4785 4317 317 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 57 57 SE 8 12 4321 4000 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 53 53 SE 8 12 3459 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 SE 8 12 3230 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 ESE 6 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 ESE 6 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 ESE 6 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 ESE 5 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 ESE 5 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 ESE 5 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 SE 6 10 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 11 3230 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 SE 6 11 3721 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 58 59 SSE 8 12 4568 4194 194 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 60 61 SSE 8 12 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 62 63 SSE 8 12 5513 4775 775 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 62 63 SSE 11 14 5513 4775 775 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 62 63 SSE 11 14 5513 4775 775 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 61 61 SSE 11 14 5010 4440 440 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 59 59 S 8 12 4568 4194 194 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 55 55 S 8 12 4074 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 51 51 S 8 12 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 SSE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 SSE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 SSE 6 11 3166 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 SSE 6 9 3166 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]