Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 SSE 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 SSE 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 S 11 13 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 S 12 16 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 13 17 4867 4518 518 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 52 54 S 13 18 5774 4850 850 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 52 54 S 14 18 5774 4850 850 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 53 55 S 14 18 6074 5154 1154 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 52 53 SSW 14 18 5475 4644 644 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 52 52 SSW 14 18 5173 4581 581 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 49 49 SSW 13 17 4584 4387 387 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 45 45 SSW 12 16 4258 4000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 13 17 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 S 12 14 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 S 13 17 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 S 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 S 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 S 16 20 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 S 17 21 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 S 17 21 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 S 18 23 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 S 18 23 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 S 17 21 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 18 24 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 20 25 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 21 26 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 S 23 28 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 S 24 29 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 44 S 26 32 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 45 45 S 26 32 4258 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 46 46 S 26 32 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 24 29 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 24 29 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 24 29 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 43 43 SW 23 27 4004 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 41 41 SW 23 27 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 SW 23 27 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 W 17 20 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 17 20 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 W 17 20 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 21 27 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 WNW 21 27 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 WNW 21 27 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 14 18 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 NW 11 13 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 NW 11 13 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 NW 11 13 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 NNW 10 13 4004 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 44 46 NNW 10 13 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 46 48 NNW 10 13 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 46 48 N 11 13 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 46 47 N 11 13 4458 4120 120 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 45 45 N 11 13 4258 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 42 42 NNE 9 11 3830 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 39 39 NNE 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 NNE 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 E 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 E 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 E 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 8 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 S 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 S 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 S 8 10 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 11 4258 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 47 48 S 9 11 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 48 49 S 9 11 4584 4387 387 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 48 48 S 10 12 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 48 48 S 10 12 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 46 46 S 10 12 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 44 44 S 9 10 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 41 41 S 9 10 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 S 9 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 S 10 12 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 S 10 12 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 S 10 12 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 S 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 S 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 S 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 SW 6 9 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 9 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 9 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 47 48 SW 6 9 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 48 49 SW 6 9 4584 4387 387 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 48 48 WSW 9 11 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 9 11 4458 4120 120 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 9 11 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 44 44 W 9 11 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 41 41 W 9 11 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 WSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 6 9 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 W 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NW 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NW 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 NW 9 11 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 NW 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 10 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 NW 8 10 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 NNW 8 10 4258 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 46 48 NNW 8 10 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 47 49 NNW 8 10 4584 4387 387 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 47 49 NNW 8 10 4584 4387 387 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 47 48 NNW 8 10 4521 4254 254 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 10 4392 4002 2 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 44 44 N 5 8 4124 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 40 40 N 5 8 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 N 5 8 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 N 5 6 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 N 5 6 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 N 5 6 3045 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 N 5 6 3045 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]