Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 2 4 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NNW 1 4 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 NNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 4 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 4 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 4 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 NNW 3 5 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 WNW 3 8 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 80 W 4 10 4658 4217 217 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 82 87 WNW 6 12 11535 8158 4158 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 84 90 W 8 14 11922 11423 7423 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 85 91 W 9 17 12051 11629 7629 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 85 91 W 9 17 12051 11629 7629 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 86 91 W 9 17 12051 11629 7629 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 9 17 11664 10216 6216 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 83 85 WNW 9 17 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 81 81 WNW 9 14 5031 4295 295 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 74 74 WNW 8 14 3893 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 5 12 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 5 12 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 NW 5 13 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 6 16 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NW 6 16 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 6 16 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NNW 6 13 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NNW 6 12 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 6 12 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 NNW 6 14 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NNW 6 14 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 NNW 6 14 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 75 NNW 9 18 4077 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 73 79 NNW 9 18 4374 4153 153 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 75 81 NNW 9 18 5031 4295 295 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 76 82 NNW 9 18 5532 4372 372 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 77 82 NNW 9 18 5532 4372 372 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 76 79 NNW 9 18 4374 4153 153 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 76 78 NNW 8 18 4297 4073 73 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 74 74 NNW 8 18 3893 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 69 69 NNW 8 18 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 NNW 5 13 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 NNW 5 13 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NNW 5 13 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 4 11 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 WNW 4 11 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 4 11 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NW 4 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 NW 4 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 NW 4 9 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 78 NNW 6 12 4297 4073 73 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 76 82 NNW 6 12 5532 4372 372 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 78 85 NNW 6 12 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 78 84 NW 6 16 8217 5011 1011 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 80 85 NW 6 16 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 80 83 NW 6 16 7451 4643 643 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 79 81 NNW 6 16 5031 4295 295 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 76 76 NNW 6 16 4154 4000 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 6 16 3607 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 2 5 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 2 5 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 2 5 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 WSW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 WSW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 WSW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 WSW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 SW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 2 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 SSW 2 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 SSW 2 6 3800 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 76 81 SSW 6 13 5031 4295 295 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 78 84 SSW 6 13 8217 5011 1011 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 79 85 SSW 6 13 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 79 85 SW 6 16 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 80 85 SW 6 16 10318 5498 1498 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 81 84 SW 6 16 8217 5011 1011 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 79 80 WSW 5 13 4658 4217 217 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 5 13 4077 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 5 13 3607 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 2 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 2 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 2 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 SSW 3 6 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 SSW 3 6 3716 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 75 80 SSW 4 11 4658 4217 217 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 78 84 SSW 4 11 8217 5011 1011 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 80 86 SSW 4 11 10695 7220 3220 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 80 86 SSW 5 14 10695 7220 3220 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 81 86 SSW 5 14 10695 7220 3220 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 80 83 SSW 5 14 7451 4643 643 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 79 80 SW 4 12 4658 4217 217 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 4 12 4154 4000 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 4 12 3716 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 1 2 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 WNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 W 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 W 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 W 1 3 4077 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 79 84 SSW 4 9 8217 5011 1011 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 82 88 SSW 4 9 11664 10216 6216 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 82 88 SSW 4 9 11664 10216 6216 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 82 88 WSW 4 13 11664 10216 6216 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 83 88 WSW 4 13 11664 10216 6216 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 83 86 WSW 4 13 10695 7220 3220 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 82 83 W 4 12 7451 4643 643 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 4 12 4374 4153 153 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 4 12 3893 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 1 3 3422 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 1 3 3240 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]