Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 251216/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 N 5 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 10 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 65 N 5 11 5687 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 65 66 N 6 12 5868 4668 668 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 65 66 N 6 13 5868 4668 668 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 66 67 N 5 13 6049 5258 1258 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 12 5687 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 10 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 59 59 N 4 9 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 4 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NNW 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 5 10 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 11 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 6 12 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NNW 6 13 3449 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 64 NNW 6 13 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 64 66 NNW 6 13 5868 4668 668 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 64 66 N 9 18 5868 4668 668 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 64 65 N 9 18 5687 4000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 62 62 N 9 18 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 60 60 N 5 14 3159 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 N 5 14 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 N 5 14 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 NW 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NW 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 4 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NNW 4 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 NNW 4 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 N 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 N 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 62 N 4 8 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 63 64 N 4 8 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 64 65 N 5 11 5687 4000 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 65 66 N 5 11 5868 4668 668 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 64 64 N 5 11 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 62 62 N 3 8 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 58 58 N 3 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 N 3 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 NE 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 ENE 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 ENE 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 W 2 3 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 W 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 W 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 3 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 WNW 3 8 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 63 64 WNW 3 8 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 63 64 NW 5 10 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 63 64 NW 5 10 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 10 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 60 60 NW 4 8 3159 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 NW 4 8 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 NW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 2 4 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 N 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 N 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 NW 4 8 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 62 NW 4 8 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 63 63 NW 4 8 4696 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 4 10 5287 4000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 4 10 4696 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 62 62 WNW 4 10 3999 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 60 60 WNW 3 6 3159 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 WNW 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 S 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 S 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 S 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 SW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 SW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 2 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SSE 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 3 5 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 S 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 6 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 S 4 9 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 13 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 60 S 6 13 3159 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 61 S 6 13 3449 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 61 S 6 14 3449 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 61 S 6 14 3449 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 60 S 6 14 3159 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 59 S 5 11 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 S 5 11 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 11 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 10 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10 2828 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 5 10 2828 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]