Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.843037, -121.427406, 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SE 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 ESE 4 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 ESE 3 5 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 ESE 3 5 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 ESE 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 71 SE 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 ESE 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 E 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 NNE 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 80 82 NNW 2 5 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 91 NNW 3 6 6288 4590 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 91 97 NW 5 10 17199 12625 8035 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 96 102 WNW 5 12 21687 20753 16163 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 99 105 WNW 8 16 22587 21459 16869 White 16
2 PM Sat 100 105 W 9 17 22587 21459 16869 White 16
3 PM Sat 101 103 W 10 19 22061 20872 16282 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 99 102 W 10 19 21687 20753 16163 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 98 100 W 10 19 20941 16296 11706 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 97 98 WSW 9 17 20372 13451 8861 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 95 95 WSW 6 14 13693 7884 3294 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 94 94 SW 5 13 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 89 89 S 5 11 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 84 84 SSE 5 10 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 81 81 SE 4 9 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 ESE 3 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 ESE 3 5 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 2 5 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 SE 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 E 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 E 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 E 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 76 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 80 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 82 85 W 5 12 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 84 87 W 5 12 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 85 89 W 5 12 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 86 89 W 10 18 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 87 90 W 10 18 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 88 90 W 10 18 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 10 19 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 10 19 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 88 88 W 10 19 4291 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 86 86 W 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 82 82 W 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 S 4 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 S 4 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 S 4 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 SE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 77 SE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 83 SE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 83 88 WNW 5 11 4291 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 86 93 WNW 5 11 11224 5206 616 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 88 95 WNW 5 11 13693 7884 3294 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 89 96 W 10 19 14458 10487 5897 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 90 96 W 10 19 14458 10487 5897 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 90 94 W 10 19 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 89 92 W 10 20 7946 4717 127 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 89 90 W 10 20 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 88 88 W 10 20 4291 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 6 13 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 S 3 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 S 3 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 S 3 6 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 ESE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 ESE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 81 ESE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 86 NW 5 11 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 84 90 NW 5 11 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 87 93 NW 5 11 11224 5206 616 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 88 95 W 10 18 13693 7884 3294 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 89 95 W 10 18 13693 7884 3294 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 89 94 W 10 18 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 88 91 WSW 11 23 6288 4590 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 88 89 WSW 11 23 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 86 86 WSW 11 23 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 84 84 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SSW 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 4 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 78 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 84 WNW 5 11 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 81 88 WNW 5 11 4291 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 84 92 WNW 5 11 7946 4717 127 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 86 94 W 10 19 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 87 94 W 10 19 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 87 92 W 10 19 7946 4717 127 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 86 89 WSW 11 24 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 86 88 WSW 11 24 4291 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 84 84 WSW 11 24 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 9 17 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 S 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 S 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 S 4 8 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 2 3 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 ESE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 ESE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 79 ESE 2 2 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 85 WNW 5 10 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 82 89 WNW 5 10 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 85 93 WNW 5 10 11224 5206 616 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 86 94 W 9 18 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 87 94 W 9 18 12864 6224 1634 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 88 93 W 9 18 11224 5206 616 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 87 90 W 10 21 5244 4590 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 87 89 W 10 21 4724 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 10 21 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 8 14 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 8 14 3996 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 8 14 3996 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]