Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.843037, -121.427406, 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SSE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 35 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 E 4 6 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 42 E 4 6 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 E 4 6 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 48 N 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 48 N 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 N 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 N 3 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 45 N 3 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 N 3 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 28 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 ESE 4 5 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 37 E 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 41 E 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 45 E 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 48 E 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 48 49 E 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 E 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 36 36 ESE 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 ESE 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 ESE 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 38 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 42 43 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 46 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 48 49 ESE 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 ESE 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 ESE 5 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 SE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 SE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 SE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 41 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 ESE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 46 NNE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 47 NNE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 NNE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 ESE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 ESE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 ESE 5 8 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SE 5 9 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 SE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 44 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 47 E 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 E 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 E 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 6 10 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 SE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 SE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 SE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 44 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 47 ESE 8 12 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 13 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 ESE 6 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SE 8 11 4016 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]