Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 16 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 W 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 W 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 W 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 34 SW 14 24 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 34 34 SW 14 24 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 31 31 SW 14 24 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 29 29 SW 16 26 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 28 28 SW 16 26 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 28 28 SW 16 26 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 29 29 SSW 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 SSW 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 SSW 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 19 32 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 SSW 19 32 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 SSW 19 32 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 SSW 29 48 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 SSW 29 48 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 SSW 29 48 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SSW 31 49 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 31 49 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 SSW 31 49 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 SW 26 41 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 SW 26 41 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 SW 26 41 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 SSW 26 42 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 SSW 26 42 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 SSW 26 42 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 23 23 WSW 21 35 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 23 23 WSW 21 35 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 23 23 WSW 21 35 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 22 22 W 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 21 21 W 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 21 21 W 18 28 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 22 22 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 23 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 24 24 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 25 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 23 23 W 20 31 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 21 21 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 20 20 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 20 20 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 W 17 21 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 20 20 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 20 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 WNW 16 25 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 24 25 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 25 26 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 25 26 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 26 27 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 26 26 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 26 26 SW 11 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 26 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 25 25 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 SW 12 20 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 24 24 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 WSW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 SW 28 47 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 24 24 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 23 23 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 23 23 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 22 22 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 22 22 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 22 22 SW 20 33 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 22 22 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 23 23 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 SW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 14 18 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 SSW 13 17 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 23 23 SW 11 14 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 23 23 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 24 24 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 WNW 9 11 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 26 26 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 NNW 10 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 28 29 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 31 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 29 31 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 28 29 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 28 29 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 29 29 WSW 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 28 28 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 27 27 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 26 26 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 W 9 12 6129 6129 329 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 W 8 10 6129 6129 329 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]