Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NNE 4 9 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NNE 4 9 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 N 4 9 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NNE 4 9 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 4 9 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 4 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 2 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 N 3 4 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 54 NW 4 5 7088 6134 334 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 56 57 NNW 4 4 8606 7076 1276 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 58 59 NW 4 5 9638 8028 2228 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 59 59 NW 4 5 9638 8028 2228 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 59 59 NW 5 5 9638 8028 2228 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 57 57 NW 5 6 8606 7076 1276 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 4 4 6138 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 2 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 5 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 N 2 5 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 2 5 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 NE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 3 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 3 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 2 5 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 1 3 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 55 NE 0 1 7511 6451 651 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 58 60 NW 1 1 10996 8559 2759 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 61 63 WNW 1 2 13166 10571 4771 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 62 63 WNW 2 2 13166 10571 4771 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 62 62 W 2 2 13071 9576 3776 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 57 57 W 2 3 8606 7076 1276 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 51 51 W 2 4 6138 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 NNE 1 2 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 2 5 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 3 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 ENE 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 ENE 4 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 4 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 8 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 7 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 3 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 2 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 ENE 2 4 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 55 ENE 0 0 7511 6451 651 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SW 0 1 10996 8559 2759 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 2 2 9638 8028 2228 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 60 60 W 2 2 10996 8559 2759 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 2 2 10996 8559 2759 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 55 55 W 2 2 7511 6451 651 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 1 3 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 0 0 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 NE 2 4 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 ENE 2 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 ENE 3 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 ENE 2 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 ENE 2 6 5722 5800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]