Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 WNW 12 13 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 12 13 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 13 13 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 13 13 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 W 13 13 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 W 16 17 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 W 16 17 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 16 17 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 W 17 18 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 W 17 18 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 W 17 18 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 W 18 19 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 61 W 18 19 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 63 W 18 19 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 62 W 26 32 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 61 W 26 32 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 62 W 26 32 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 57 WNW 28 34 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 28 34 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 WNW 28 34 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 24 35 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 24 35 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NW 24 35 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 WNW 23 33 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 WNW 23 33 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 23 33 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 19 28 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 19 28 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 19 28 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 NW 19 25 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 49 NW 16 23 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 51 NW 16 23 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 54 NW 16 23 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 57 NW 16 24 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 58 NW 16 24 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 56 NW 16 24 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 55 NNW 9 14 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 9 14 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 9 14 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 4 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 4 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 4 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 9 12 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 9 12 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 9 12 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 NW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 55 NW 8 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 60 SW 2 4 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 63 SW 2 4 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 65 SW 2 4 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 66 WSW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 66 WSW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 65 WSW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 63 WSW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 2 3 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 2 3 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 W 2 3 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 W 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 W 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 NE 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 NE 6 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 63 SSW 3 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 65 SSW 3 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 67 SSW 3 5 7543 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 68 SW 5 9 8260 6218 418 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 63 68 SW 5 9 8260 6218 418 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 63 66 SW 5 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 62 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 2 6 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 WNW 2 6 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 2 6 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 5 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 5 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 5 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 N 6 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 N 6 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 63 S 3 6 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 65 S 3 6 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 67 S 3 6 7543 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 67 S 4 9 7543 6218 418 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 67 S 4 9 7543 6218 418 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 65 S 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 63 SSW 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 S 0 2 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 2 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NNW 2 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NNW 2 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 3 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 4 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 4 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NE 4 10 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 5 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 ENE 5 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 ENE 5 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 63 SSE 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 65 SSE 4 8 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 67 SSE 4 8 7543 6218 418 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 66 SSW 5 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 65 SSW 5 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 64 SSW 5 11 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 61 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 SW 4 9 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 1 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 1 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 1 5 6218 6218 418 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]