Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 63 63 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 63 63 NNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 70 NNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 74 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 72 75 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 73 77 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 73 76 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 72 74 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 73 74 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 71 72 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 69 69 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 67 67 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 62 62 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 61 61 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 61 61 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 61 61 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 66 68 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 71 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 70 74 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 70 74 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 70 74 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 70 73 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 69 71 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 61 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 62 64 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 66 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 67 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 65 67 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 65 67 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 57 57 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 58 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 61 62 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 63 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 64 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 64 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 64 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 62 63 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 55 55 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 53 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 53 53 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 54 54 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 55 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 57 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 59 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 59 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 57 58 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 57 58 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 54 54 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 52 52 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 51 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 51 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 51 51 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 53 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 52 54 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 52 54 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 52 54 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 52 53 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 52 53 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]