Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 W 10 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 W 10 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 W 10 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 W 10 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 WNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 WNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 WNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 WNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 WNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 31 WNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 32 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 33 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 34 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 33 33 NW 10 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 33 33 NW 10 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 34 34 NW 10 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 NW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 NNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 NNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 NNW 9 14 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 NNW 11 18 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 NNW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NNW 8 12 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 NNW 8 12 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 8 12 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 NW 4 8 6028 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 NW 4 8 8380 6035 235 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 43 45 NW 4 8 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 44 46 WNW 8 13 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 44 45 WNW 8 13 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 44 45 WNW 8 13 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 43 43 W 9 14 7678 5800 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 43 43 W 9 14 7678 5800 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 42 42 W 9 14 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 SW 10 16 6028 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 SW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 SW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 SSW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 SSW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SSW 10 16 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 SSW 13 21 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SSW 13 21 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 SSW 13 21 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 SW 17 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SW 17 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 SW 17 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 SW 14 24 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 SW 14 24 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 14 24 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 34 W 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 35 W 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 35 W 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 35 35 WNW 20 33 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 35 35 WNW 20 33 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 35 35 WNW 20 33 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 34 34 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 34 34 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 WNW 24 39 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 NW 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 N 18 29 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 40 N 14 25 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 42 N 14 25 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 45 N 14 25 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 43 46 N 14 25 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 44 46 N 14 25 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 44 45 N 14 25 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 44 44 N 18 28 8380 6035 235 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 18 28 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 N 18 28 6028 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 N 18 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 N 18 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 N 18 28 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 19 31 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 17 27 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 17 27 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 17 27 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NNE 17 27 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 17 27 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 NNE 17 27 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 W 9 13 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 46 48 W 9 13 9661 8823 3023 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 47 49 W 9 13 10076 9143 3343 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 48 50 W 9 13 10171 9280 3480 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 49 51 W 9 13 10408 9610 3810 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 49 50 W 9 13 10171 9280 3480 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 48 48 WNW 11 18 9661 8823 3023 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 47 47 WNW 11 18 9293 8338 2538 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 11 18 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 11 18 8380 6035 235 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 43 43 WNW 11 18 7678 5800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 42 42 WNW 11 18 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 12 20 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 NNW 12 20 6028 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NNW 12 20 6028 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 12 20 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 12 20 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 12 20 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 11 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NNW 11 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NNW 11 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 11 17 5786 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NNW 11 17 6748 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 11 17 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 48 49 W 9 13 10076 9143 3343 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 49 51 W 9 13 10408 9610 3810 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 50 52 W 9 13 10631 10064 4264 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 50 52 W 9 13 10631 10064 4264 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 51 53 W 9 13 10972 10159 4359 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 51 52 W 9 13 10631 10064 4264 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 17 10408 9610 3810 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 50 50 W 10 17 10171 9280 3480 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 10 17 9661 8823 3023 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 10 17 9293 8338 2538 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 17 9160 7638 1838 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 45 45 W 10 17 8850 6735 935 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 44 44 NNW 10 17 8380 6035 235 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]