Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.712452, -120.2343, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 ESE 1 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 1 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 1 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NE 1 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 ENE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 SW 3 4 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 56 SW 5 6 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 56 57 WSW 5 10 2554 2000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 57 58 WSW 5 10 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 5 10 2554 2000 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 58 58 W 5 10 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 8 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 3 4 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 2 2 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 NE 2 2 704 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 ENE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 ENE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 2 2 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 E 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 S 2 4 673 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 SW 4 6 1101 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 SW 4 6 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 56 58 SW 4 6 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 57 59 WSW 6 10 2928 2125 125 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 57 58 WSW 6 10 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 6 10 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 5 8 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 53 53 WSW 5 8 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 WSW 5 8 903 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 NE 2 3 673 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 3 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 3 5 704 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SSE 4 5 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 SSE 4 5 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SSE 4 5 2984 2546 546 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 60 62 WSW 5 9 3206 2925 925 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 60 61 WSW 5 9 3084 2743 743 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 5 9 2928 2125 125 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 8 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 8 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 8 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 ENE 3 4 1101 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 3 4 903 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 3 4 704 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 4 5 704 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 4 5 673 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 ENE 4 5 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 8 2554 2000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 60 61 ESE 5 8 3084 2743 743 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 63 64 ESE 5 8 3355 3073 1073 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 64 65 SW 6 10 3430 3201 1201 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 64 64 SW 6 10 3355 3073 1073 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 63 63 SW 6 10 3281 2980 980 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 9 3084 2743 743 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 9 2928 2125 125 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 5 9 2554 2000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 9 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 9 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 5 9 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 ENE 5 8 1101 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 ENE 5 8 1101 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 ENE 5 8 903 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 5 8 903 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 5 8 704 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 5 8 704 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 5 9 903 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 5 9 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 58 58 SE 6 10 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 62 SE 6 10 3206 2925 925 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 63 64 SE 6 10 3355 3073 1073 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 65 66 SE 6 10 3516 3275 1275 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 65 65 SE 6 10 3430 3201 1201 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 65 65 SE 6 10 3430 3201 1201 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 63 63 SSE 4 6 3281 2980 980 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 61 61 SSE 4 6 3084 2743 743 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 58 58 SSE 4 6 2758 2011 11 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 56 56 SSE 4 6 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 55 55 SSE 4 6 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 54 54 SSE 4 6 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 ENE 5 9 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 ENE 5 9 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 ENE 5 9 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 5 9 1101 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 5 9 903 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 5 9 903 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 5 9 704 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 5 9 673 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 5 9 704 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 5 9 1300 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 5 9 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 60 61 S 8 11 3084 2743 743 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 63 64 S 8 11 3355 3073 1073 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 65 66 S 8 11 3516 3275 1275 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 66 67 S 8 11 4018 3350 1350 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 66 67 S 8 11 4018 3350 1350 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 66 66 S 8 11 3516 3275 1275 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 5 10 3355 3073 1073 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 5 10 3206 2925 925 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 5 10 2928 2125 125 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 5 10 2129 2000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 55 55 SSW 5 10 2014 2000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 10 1728 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 ENE 6 9 1300 2000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]