Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.712452, -120.2343, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 90 90 E 1 2 2417 2236 236 Blue 29
1 AM Sat 90 90 E 1 2 2417 2236 236 Blue 29
2 AM Sat 89 89 ENE 2 5 2346 2187 187 Blue 28
3 AM Sat 87 87 NE 2 4 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
4 AM Sat 85 85 NE 2 4 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
5 AM Sat 85 85 ENE 2 4 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
6 AM Sat 84 84 NE 2 5 2090 2000 0 Blue 23
7 AM Sat 83 83 ENE 2 5 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
8 AM Sat 85 85 S 2 5 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
9 AM Sat 87 88 S 3 6 2287 2138 138 Blue 27
10 AM Sat 92 95 S 4 8 2736 2549 549 Blue 34
11 AM Sat 95 99 SSW 5 10 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 98 104 SW 5 11 4115 3681 1681 Blue 43
1 PM Sat 98 104 WSW 5 12 4115 3681 1681 Blue 43
2 PM Sat 100 106 WSW 6 13 4902 3914 1914 Blue 45
3 PM Sat 102 107 W 6 13 5738 4075 2075 Blue 46
4 PM Sat 101 105 W 6 13 4547 3813 1813 Blue 44
5 PM Sat 100 102 W 6 13 3821 3193 1193 Blue 41
6 PM Sat 100 101 WNW 5 12 3701 2995 995 Blue 40
7 PM Sat 97 97 WNW 5 11 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
8 PM Sat 95 95 NNW 5 10 2736 2549 549 Blue 34
9 PM Sat 91 91 N 4 9 2488 2285 285 Blue 30
10 PM Sat 89 89 N 3 8 2346 2187 187 Blue 28
11 PM Sat 87 87 NNE 2 6 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 NE 2 5 2188 2000 0 Blue 25
1 AM Sun 85 85 N 2 5 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
2 AM Sun 83 83 NNW 2 4 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
3 AM Sun 82 82 NNE 2 4 1919 2000 0 Blue 21
4 AM Sun 81 81 ENE 2 4 1879 2000 0 Blue 20
5 AM Sun 80 80 ENE 2 3 1839 2000 0 Blue 19
6 AM Sun 79 79 ENE 2 3 1799 2000 0 Blue 18
7 AM Sun 79 79 ENE 2 4 1799 2000 0 Blue 18
8 AM Sun 81 82 WSW 2 4 1919 2000 0 Blue 21
9 AM Sun 85 87 WSW 2 5 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 89 93 WSW 4 9 2609 2415 415 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 92 98 W 5 11 3000 2731 731 Blue 37
12 Noon Sun 94 101 W 5 11 3701 2995 995 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 96 103 W 5 11 3922 3438 1438 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 97 104 W 6 13 4115 3681 1681 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 98 104 W 6 13 4115 3681 1681 Blue 43
4 PM Sun 98 103 W 6 13 3922 3438 1438 Blue 42
5 PM Sun 97 100 WNW 8 16 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
6 PM Sun 96 97 WNW 8 16 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
7 PM Sun 95 95 WNW 8 16 2736 2549 549 Blue 34
8 PM Sun 93 93 NW 6 13 2609 2415 415 Blue 32
9 PM Sun 91 91 NW 6 13 2488 2285 285 Blue 30
10 PM Sun 88 88 NW 6 13 2287 2138 138 Blue 27
11 PM Sun 85 85 N 4 10 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 N 4 10 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
1 AM Mon 81 81 N 4 10 1879 2000 0 Blue 20
2 AM Mon 79 79 NNE 2 5 1799 2000 0 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 78 78 NNE 2 5 1759 2000 0 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 77 77 NNE 2 5 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
5 AM Mon 77 77 NE 2 4 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
6 AM Mon 77 77 NE 2 4 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
7 AM Mon 77 77 NE 2 4 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
8 AM Mon 79 80 W 2 5 1839 2000 0 Blue 19
9 AM Mon 82 85 W 2 5 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 86 91 W 2 5 2488 2285 285 Blue 30
11 AM Mon 90 97 WSW 5 11 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
12 Noon Mon 92 100 WSW 5 11 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
1 PM Mon 94 103 WSW 5 11 3922 3438 1438 Blue 42
2 PM Mon 95 103 W 8 14 3922 3438 1438 Blue 42
3 PM Mon 96 103 W 8 14 3922 3438 1438 Blue 42
4 PM Mon 96 101 W 8 14 3701 2995 995 Blue 40
5 PM Mon 96 99 W 8 17 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
6 PM Mon 95 96 W 8 17 2824 2607 607 Blue 35
7 PM Mon 94 94 W 8 17 2667 2485 485 Blue 33
8 PM Mon 92 92 NW 5 13 2551 2344 344 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 89 89 NW 5 13 2346 2187 187 Blue 28
10 PM Mon 86 86 NW 5 13 2188 2000 0 Blue 25
11 PM Mon 83 83 N 4 10 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 N 4 10 1879 2000 0 Blue 20
1 AM Tue 79 79 N 4 10 1799 2000 0 Blue 18
2 AM Tue 78 78 N 2 5 1759 2000 0 Blue 17
3 AM Tue 77 77 N 2 5 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
4 AM Tue 75 75 N 2 5 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
5 AM Tue 75 75 NNE 2 4 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
6 AM Tue 75 75 NNE 2 4 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
7 AM Tue 75 75 NNE 2 4 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
8 AM Tue 77 78 W 3 6 1759 2000 0 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 80 83 W 3 6 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 84 88 W 3 6 2287 2138 138 Blue 27
11 AM Tue 88 95 WSW 5 11 2736 2549 549 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 91 99 WSW 5 11 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 93 102 WSW 5 11 3821 3193 1193 Blue 41
2 PM Tue 94 102 WSW 8 14 3821 3193 1193 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 95 102 WSW 8 14 3821 3193 1193 Blue 41
4 PM Tue 95 100 WSW 8 14 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
5 PM Tue 95 98 W 6 16 3000 2731 731 Blue 37
6 PM Tue 94 95 W 6 16 2736 2549 549 Blue 34
7 PM Tue 92 92 W 6 16 2551 2344 344 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 90 90 W 6 16 2417 2236 236 Blue 29
9 PM Tue 87 87 W 6 16 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 6 16 2090 2000 0 Blue 23
11 PM Tue 81 81 N 4 10 1879 2000 0 Blue 20
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 N 4 10 1799 2000 0 Blue 18
1 AM Wed 77 77 N 4 10 1726 2000 0 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 76 76 N 4 10 1708 2000 0 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 75 75 N 4 10 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 73 73 N 4 10 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 73 73 NW 3 6 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 73 73 NW 3 6 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 73 73 NW 3 6 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 75 76 NW 3 6 1708 2000 0 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 78 81 NW 3 6 1879 2000 0 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 82 87 NW 3 6 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
11 AM Wed 86 92 W 6 16 2551 2344 344 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 89 97 W 6 16 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 91 99 W 6 16 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 92 99 W 6 16 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 93 99 W 6 16 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 93 97 W 6 16 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 93 96 WNW 6 16 2824 2607 607 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 92 93 WNW 6 16 2609 2415 415 Blue 32
7 PM Wed 90 90 WNW 6 16 2417 2236 236 Blue 29
8 PM Wed 88 88 WNW 6 16 2287 2138 138 Blue 27
9 PM Wed 85 85 WNW 6 16 2139 2000 0 Blue 24
10 PM Wed 83 83 WNW 6 16 1960 2000 0 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 80 80 NNE 3 9 1839 2000 0 Blue 19
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 NNE 3 9 1759 2000 0 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 76 76 NNE 3 9 1708 2000 0 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 75 75 NNE 3 9 1691 2000 0 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 3 9 1674 2000 0 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 73 73 NNE 3 9 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 5 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 5 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 5 1658 2000 0 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 75 76 N 2 5 1708 2000 0 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 79 82 N 2 5 1919 2000 0 Blue 21
10 AM Thu 83 88 N 2 5 2287 2138 138 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 87 93 W 6 14 2609 2415 415 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 90 98 W 6 14 3000 2731 731 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 92 100 W 6 14 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
2 PM Thu 93 100 W 6 14 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
3 PM Thu 94 100 W 6 14 3455 2907 907 Blue 39
4 PM Thu 94 99 W 6 14 3209 2819 819 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 94 97 WNW 6 16 2912 2664 664 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 93 94 WNW 6 16 2667 2485 485 Blue 33
7 PM Thu 91 91 WNW 6 16 2488 2285 285 Blue 30
8 PM Thu 89 89 WNW 6 16 2346 2187 187 Blue 28
9 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 6 16 2238 2089 89 Blue 26
10 PM Thu 84 84 WNW 6 16 2090 2000 0 Blue 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]