Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.3803, -120.0769, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 3 4 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 5 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 4 6 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 4 6 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 4 6 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 4 6 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 4 8 3155 2286 286 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 50 51 SSE 5 11 4028 3138 1138 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 51 53 S 6 13 4290 3884 1884 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 53 55 S 8 14 4471 4149 2149 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 54 56 S 8 14 4533 4280 2280 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 54 55 S 8 13 4471 4149 2149 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 5 12 4471 4149 2149 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 4 9 4290 3884 1884 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 2 4 4028 3138 1138 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 50 50 E 2 4 3899 2580 580 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 47 47 ENE 3 4 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 46 46 ENE 2 4 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 46 46 E 2 4 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 46 46 E 3 4 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 4 8 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 ESE 5 10 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 8 12 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 47 47 SE 10 17 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 47 47 SE 10 17 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 48 48 SE 12 18 3155 2286 286 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 47 47 SE 13 18 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 46 46 SE 14 20 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 47 47 SE 14 25 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 45 45 SE 17 26 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 45 45 SE 18 28 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 44 44 SE 18 29 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 44 SE 18 29 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 SE 18 29 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 43 SE 17 26 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 SE 17 26 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 SE 17 26 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 43 43 SSE 12 20 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 SSE 12 20 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 SSE 12 20 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NNW 8 13 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NNW 8 13 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NNW 8 13 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 4 8 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 N 4 8 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 N 4 8 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 N 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 N 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 NE 4 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 WSW 2 6 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 46 WSW 2 6 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 45 47 WSW 2 6 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 45 47 WSW 5 10 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 45 46 WSW 5 10 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 5 10 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 44 44 W 3 8 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 W 3 8 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 3 8 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 ENE 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 ENE 4 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 ENE 4 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 4 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 4 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 E 5 6 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 5 6 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 6 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 SE 8 12 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 46 46 SE 8 12 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 46 47 SE 8 12 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 46 46 SSE 9 17 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 46 46 SSE 9 17 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 46 46 SSE 9 17 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 8 12 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 46 46 SE 8 12 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 45 45 SE 8 12 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 45 45 ESE 8 11 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 11 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 11 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 47 47 ESE 8 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 47 47 ESE 8 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 ESE 8 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 47 47 SE 9 12 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 47 47 SE 9 12 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 47 47 SE 9 12 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 47 47 ESE 6 13 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 46 46 ESE 6 13 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 46 46 ESE 6 13 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 10 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 10 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 10 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 45 45 SE 8 14 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 45 45 SE 8 14 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 46 46 SE 8 14 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 46 46 SSE 8 16 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 47 47 SSE 8 16 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 47 47 SSE 8 16 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 47 47 SE 4 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 46 46 SE 4 11 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 45 45 SE 4 11 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 3 6 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 3 6 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 3 6 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 3 5 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 3 5 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 ENE 3 5 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 3 6 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 3 6 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 3 6 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 ENE 3 4 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NE 3 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 5 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 W 3 8 1925 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 45 W 3 8 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 44 45 W 3 8 2288 2000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 45 46 W 5 11 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 46 47 W 5 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 11 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 10 2584 2143 143 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 10 2433 2000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 10 2144 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 3 5 1646 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 N 3 5 1365 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 N 3 5 1322 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 2 3 1322 2000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]